Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For 29Metals, Citi lowers its rating to Neutral from Buy and cuts its target to $2.50 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.3
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ACL as Neutral (3) -

Australian Clinical Labs is scheduled to hold its AGM on October 19 and Credit Suisse warns investors there is downside risk from the company's trading update, expected to be released on the day.

The broker points out covid testing has fallen "dramatically" since the release of FY22 financials in August. Additional risk seems to stem from the observation Australian Clinical Labs still has double the footprint in drive-through testing sites in comparison with Healius.

Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)) remains the broker's preferred pick for the sector in Australia.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $1.02
If ACL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AD8 as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

With Audinate Group ready to monetise on investments beyond pure audio after years of preparation, Macquarie has initiated coverage.

While the company's audio hardware supported a 12% compound annual growth rate between FY19-22, the broker expects video capabilities to add a further 9% to the company's compound annual growth rate between FY22-30.

Key acquisitions in 2021 gave Audinate Group readily available intellectual property to develop video capability, with the company already signing on 26 video OEM customers. 

The company is also undergoing a shift from being hardware to software focused. with revenues offering higher margins. Macquarie sees revenue generation potential beginning to emerge, and initiates with an Outperform rating and a target price of $11.00.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $4.02
If AD8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.40, suggesting upside of 50.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

While traffic is set to worsen as Europe slows down, dragging on Atlas Arteria's cashflow and dividends, Macquarie sees limited downside at the stock's current levels.

The broker anticipates traffic in France will decline -1-2% in the third quarter, and face further pressure in the fourth quarter. Data has also shown little recovery for Greenway, with traffic continuing to track at around 30% of 2019 levels. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $7.03 from $7.22.

Target price is $7.03 Current Price is $6.21 Difference: $0.82
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.67, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AWC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For Alumina Ltd, Citi raises its rating to Buy from Neutral on valuation after an around -34% share price fall in the last six months and leaves its $1.60 target price unchanged.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.35
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi was surprised by the extent of Baby Bunting's -230 basis point gross margin contraction in the first quarter, and has downgraded its rating on the stock given concern over ongoing earnings downside risk.

The broker anticipates margins will moderate over the remainder of the fiscal year from loyalty program optimisation. While the retailer did report 8% like-for-like sales growth in the first fourteen weeks of the year, Citi notes this implies a slowing to 2% growth in the latter half of this period. 

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target price decreases to $3.32 from $5.62.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.22
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 50.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BBN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie was left disappointed by Baby Bunting's market update, with gross profit margins declining -230 basis points on the previous comparable period.

A -60 basis point decline was attributed to poor loyalty program execution, with the remaining -170 basis point decline linked to external and competitive factors.

The broker does anticipate partial recovery to gross profit margins in FY23 from loyalty program improvement. Earnings per share forecasts decrease -25%, -18% and -8% through to FY25. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.95 from $5.90.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $1.85
If BBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 50.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BBN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Baby Bunting to $4.60 from $6.20 following an AGM trading update which revealed solid revenue growth though there were pressures on the gross margin. It's felt subsequent price rises will render these pressures transitory.

The analyst believes the 1Q focus by management was on customer value rather than on managing gross margin, and the impact of changes it did make are lagged. It's noted gross margins declined by -1% in FY18 only to rebound to record highs in FY19.

The company partly attributed the weaker margin to domestic freight charges, a weaker currency and a changed sales mix.

The Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $1.5
If BBN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 50.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBN as Buy (1) -

Despite robust year-to-date sales Ord Minnett found Baby Bunting's gross profit outcome weaker than expected, with a -230 basis point decline impacted by loyalty program investment, unrecovered cost increases and heightened price competition. 

Total sales increased 12.0% year-to-date, with comparable sales up 7.6%, representing a modest slowing of sales growth. The broker anticipates sales growth to continue to moderate over the first half as the retailer cycles progressively higher sales growth in the last year.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.75 from $6.00.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $1.65
If BBN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 50.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as No Rating (-1) -

Citi expects BHP Group's five year target to lift production to 300m tonnes per annum from 290m tonnes per annum can be achieved with existing infrastructure, while anticipating the 330m tonnes per annum aspirational target will require competitive capital expenditure spend. 

The broker retains its view that iron demand will peak in 2028, and remain relatively flat through to 2040, and expects supply side challenges to emerge given ongoing mine depletion. It does find BHP Group's WA iron ore operations well positioned to maintain industry leadership.

Citi is under research restrictions for BHP Group, so no rating or price target.

Current Price is $39.92. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $41.35, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Buy (1) -

Bank of Queensland's FY22 report, released earlier today, seems to have sligthly missed market consensus due to higher costs. On Citi's forecasts, the performance was in line.

However, the positive it seems has come in the form of management suggesting the Net Interest Margin (NIM) will be higher than expected, driven by expanding margins on savings and term deposit accounts.

This guidance, explains Citi, will translate into upward revisions to consensus estimates. Leverage to rising rates should fully kick in over the year ahead.

Buy. $8.75.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: $1.92
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Buy (1) -

In an initial response to today's FY22 release by Bank of Queensland, UBS comments the result itself is in line, albeit with a distraction from one-off integration costs.

UBS had penciled in a final dividend of 21c so today's 24c announcement came as a positive surprise, though it was simply in line with market consensus.

The broker argues the regional lender's medium-term outlook remains unchanged with margins expected to increase with rising interest rates and those benefits partly offset by headwinds from wholesale funding.

Buy. Target $8.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: $1.17
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For Champion Iron, Citi maintains its Buy rating and lowers its target to $7.70 from $7.80.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $2.55
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects approval of CSL's EtranaDez gene therapy treatment could prove mid-single digit accretive to earnings per share and add $10.00 per share to valuation.

Following positive Phase 3 results, the broker sees a potential pathway  to FDA approval by early 2023. Alongside potential approval of garadacimab and recovery in base business, the brokers considers CSL's earnings growth profile attractive through to FY24.

The Outperform rating and target price of $329.50 are retained.

Target price is $329.50 Current Price is $282.86 Difference: $46.64
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $324.80, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DBI as Buy (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure has locked in a new coal pricing deal, confirming Terminal Infrastructure Charges of $3.02 per tonne and $3.18 per tonne in 2021-22 and 2022-23 respectively. 

Citi estimates a revenue benefit of $60-70m which should pass straight through to profit.

The broker considers the operating risk profile to be largely the same. The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.73 from $2.42.

Target price is $2.73 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.5
If DBI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DBI as Add (1) -

Following first-time (and successful) negotiations directly with customers on the Terminal Infrastructure Charge (TIC), Morgans raises its target for Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure to $2.67 from $2.32. Add.

The new TIC is $3.18/t of contracted capacity compared to the prior $2.46/t, which was determined by the regulator. The broker estimates this increase will deliver an initial 33% increase in earnings (EBITDA) and a 63% increase in pre-tax funds from operations (FFO).

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure has increased its distribution guidance by 10% to 20.1cps for 2022 and 2023, and is targeting dividend growth of 3-7% per year for the foreseeable future.

Target price is $2.67 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.44
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Buy (1) -

Citi's analysis suggests Domino's Pizza Enterprises' website traffic has decreased in Japan and all European markets.

The broker suggested the decline in Japan could be attributed to either fewer new covid cases or reduced promotional activity, while Europe was linked to increasing cost of living pressures and labour challenges. 

While the company's short-term outlook appears increasingly challenging, the broker remains positive on the longer-term opportunity underpinned by new store rollouts.

The Buy rating and target price of $84.40 are retained.

Target price is $84.40 Current Price is $51.87 Difference: $32.53
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $84.32, suggesting upside of 61.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DRR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For Deterra Royalties, Citi upgrades its rating to Buy from Neutral on valuation as the share price has retraced around -29% in the past six months. The $4.80 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $0.68
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DXC as Add (1) -

In line with stated aims at FY22 results, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT has announced the sale of two assets at book value, with further divestments expected, notes Morgans.

Management is aiming for balance sheet flexibility and may use funds for capital management initiatives, explains the broker.

Morgans incorporates the sales into forecasts, which has a minimal impact. The target rises to $3.73 from $3.71 and the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.73 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.87
If DXC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For Fortescue Metals, Citi maintains its Neutral rating and lowers its target to $17.00 from $18.60.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $17.24 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.49, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HAS as Outperform (1) -

An updated resource estimate for Hastings Technology Metals' Bald Hill-Simon's Find-Fraser's trend has indicated a 9% increase to total resources. 

Following the announcement Macquarie has lifted its Yangibana mining inventory, and sees upside to reserve and life of mine from drill results, but made only minimal changes to forecasts. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.20 from $6.10.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $2.9
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HLS as Neutral (3) -

Healius is scheduled to hold its AGM on October 20 and Credit Suisse warns investors there is downside risk from the company's trading update, expected to be released on the day.

The broker points out covid testing has fallen "dramatically" since the release of FY22 financials in August. Credit Suisse's H1 estimate sits -4% below market consensus.

While the base business is picking up, the broker points out it's currently more of a sluggish pace and therefore too early to treat this as a positive development.

Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)) remains the broker's preferred pick for the sector in Australia.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.68
If HLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For Iluka Resources, Citi maintains its Buy rating and raises its target to $12.20 from $12.00.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $9.51 Difference: $2.69
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.43, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LGI as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Green energy producer LCI converts methane from landfill into energy and/or less harmful greenhouse gases. The company operates 13MW of electricity generation and 19 flares across 26 landfill sites in Queensland and NSW. 

Morgans points out LCI is in a much more developed state than other ASX-listed small/micro-cap renewables such as Genex Power ((GNX)) or Delorean Corp ((DEL)), and is regarded a solid investment alternative to gain exposure to the decarbonisation thematic. 

The broker sets a $1.81 target and begins with a Hold rating as shares have rallied 18% post IPO. Volume and price increases have driven a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 190% since FY20.

Target price is $1.81 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.11
If LGI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

With Mirvac Group's CEO and Managing Director and Board Chair both retiring in June 2023 and December 2022 respectively, the company has commenced its search for a new CEO and Managing Director. Board Chair will be taken on by non-executive director Rob Sindel. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $2.39 are retained.

Target price is $2.39 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.47
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees the announced retirement of long serving CEO Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz as a mild negative. 

Media reports suggest the current Head of Commercial Campbell Hanan may be a possible replacement, notes the analyst.

The target price of $2.30 and Equal-weight rating are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.38
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MGR as Buy (1) -

Mirvac Group has announced the impending retirement of both its CEO and Board Chairman. Ord Minnett expects the departure of the CEO will not be a surprise to investors given it has been a discussion point over the past six months.

The broker anticipates the CEO role will be attractive to many well-qualified applicants, but flagged Campbell Hannan as the obvious internal pick. 

The Buy rating and target price of $2.60 are retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.68
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Expansion of Mineral Resources' Mt Marion process plant is underway and should be completed by mid-2023, underpinning an increase in spodumene production to 900,000 tonnes per annum. 

Alongside Wodgina, Macquarie estimates the spodumene assets to contribute 50% of group earnings over the medium-term. The broker expects a move into underground is likely to extend mine life. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $98.00 are retained.

Target price is $98.00 Current Price is $72.78 Difference: $25.22
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $82.24, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MME as Add (1) -

Morgans lowers its earnings forecasts marginally after a 1Q trading update by MoneyMe. The company is executing on its previously stated change of strategy to ease up on rapid book growth and focus on profitability, explains the analyst.

The target price falls to $1.17 from $1.20.

The Add rating is maintained as MoneyMe has the ability to pass on costs in the rising interest rate environment via its variable rate products, explains the analyst. Asset quality can also be maintained with new assessment criteria for loans.

Target price is $1.17 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.8
If MME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 216% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Sell (5) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For New Hope, Citi maintains its Sell rating and raises its target to $4.60 from $3.00.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.65, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Downgrade to High-risk Neutral from High-risk Buy (3) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For Nickel Industries, Citi downgrades its rating to High-risk Neutral from High-risk Buy on the broker's bearish outlook for nickel and after allowing for increased costs via its bullish outlook on coal. The target falls to $0.90 from $1.60.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.11
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Orica's CFO has resigned, with Mrs Kim Kerr appointed as replacement. The company continues to expect it can outperform market expectations with full year earnings, but did flag inflationary pressures, higher energy costs and supply chain constraints will remain a challenge in the coming year.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $15.10 from $17.50 given declines in earnings per share guidance for FY23.

Target price is $15.10 Current Price is $13.39 Difference: $1.71
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.47, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

While Morgan Stanley finds it difficult to quantify, Orica has guided for earnings "slightly ahead of market expectations". Given tighter nitrogen markets, it's felt this guidance will ease some investor concerns.

After the broker adjusts its forecasts for the completed Axis acquisition and the recent shareholder purchase plan (placement already taken-up in forecast), the target falls to $17.80 from $18.40. Overweight. Industry view is In-Line.

The company announced Kim Kerr will succeed Christopher Davis as CFO, effective October 11. FY22 results on November 9 will be a key catalyst, according to the analyst.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $13.39 Difference: $4.41
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.47, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For Rio Tinto, Citi lowers its target to $115 from $120 and retains its Buy rating.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $96.90 Difference: $18.1
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $102.64, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For South32, Citi upgrades its rating to Buy from Neutral on valuation as the share price has retraced around -23% in the past six months. The target rises to $4.60 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.93
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as High-risk Buy (1) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For Sandfire Resources, Citi maintains its High-risk Buy rating and lowers its target to $5.50 from $6.00.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $1.81
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting upside of 33.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SLC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes first-time FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance by Superloop appears to be 10-15% ahead of the broker's estimate, after including the VostroNet acquisition.

The broker attributes strong customer growth for the guidance and feels management will initiate further capital management.

The Overweight rating and $1.05 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.34
If SLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 64.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SLC as Add (1) -

Morgans notes ongoing and impressive organic growth for Superloop. This follows a strong 1Q trading update and new FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance, which beat the consensus forecast by 19%.

The broker partly attributes these strong outcomes to organic NBN subscriber growth, the Acurus and VostroNet acquisitions and an earnings uplift from the Uniti deal. The network partnership deal, announced yesterday, will be immediately earnings accretive.

Morgans upgrades its underlying earnings forecasts and the target price rises to $1.05 from $1.00. Add.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.34
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 64.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SLC as Buy (1) -

In a solid first quarter market update, Superloop has delivered a strong start to the year across all segments. Ord Minnett notes the company has lifted its operating earnings guidance to $33-36m, ahead of the broker's estimated $29.1m. 

The company reported 14,637 net new subscribers in the consumer business through the quarter, not far off the 17,621 subscribers added through the whole of FY22. Ord Minnett expects the company benefited from industry churn following the Optus data breach.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.40 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.69
If SLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 64.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

While oil prices remain elevated and Ord Minnett remains broadly positive on the sector, the broker has downgraded Woodside Energy given the proximity of the stock price to its net present value estimate.

Accounting for the broker's latest Brent price forecasts, Ord Minnett made modest upgrades to 2022 net profit forecasts. 

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target price of $37.00 is retained.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $33.75 Difference: $3.25
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.35, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi sees short-term headwinds for metals demand as China will likely remain sluggish and the Federal Reserve in the US is expected to continue to raise interest rates, despite global weakness. Ongoing US dollar strength is also anticipated.

The broker trims its near-term price forecasts for iron ore, aluminium, copper and nickel, and raises its forecast for coal. Lithium prices are expected to be resilient. Citi is now relatively more bearish on copper and relatively more bullish on met coal.

The analysts expect a rebound for metal prices during the second half of 2023 from an easing in China and a pivot in Fed policy from the second quarter of 2023. 

For Whitehaven Coal, Citi downgrades its rating to Sell from Neutral on valuation following a 154% share price rally in the last six months, despite the risk of higher-for-longer coal prices. The target rises to $8.30 from $7.40.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $10.37 Difference: minus $2.07 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.05, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources