Australian Broker Call
October 11, 2016
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 12:14 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ANN - | ANSELL | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
BDR - | BEADELL RESOURCES | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
BGL - | BIGAIR GROUP | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
MYX - | MAYNE PHARMA GROUP | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
UBS rates ANN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
UBS updates its FX assumptions and believes Ansell has exited a 12-18 month period of headwinds in terms of operations and currency and is on the cusp of improving underlying trading.
The broker believes the growth profile is not that different from other industrial stocks and its share price should reflect a similar allocation of value to long-term earnings growth.
Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy as material share price gains now limit the potential return against the broker's price target. Target rises to $24.55 from $24.50.
Target price is $24.55 Current Price is $23.64 Difference: $0.91
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.66, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 60.98 cents and EPS of 150.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 118.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.0, implying annual growth of 6.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates APO as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse acknowledges the broad industry conditions in the outdoor category are sound but suspects there are market share losses for the company's transit business.
Street furniture operations have commenced digital conversions and won share while APN Outdoor is a little restricted, the broker observes, given the limited scope for digitising bus or tram exteriors.
This drives 6-8% downgrades to earnings per share estimates across 2017-18. The stock still offers value and the issues do not prevent the company generating respectable growth, the broker adds. Outperform rating retained. Target slips to $6.70 from $7.15.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $1.51
If APO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 15.95 cents and EPS of 29.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.63 cents and EPS of 31.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BDR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Exploration drilling is pointing to higher grades at Tucano and satellite drilling around Duckhead is also turning up positive results. The company has also strengthened its North American alignment, Macquarie notes, ahead of a planned listing on the Toronto exchange.
Macquarie suggests Beadell's new sense of direction is gathering momentum. Operational improvements need to be confirmed but the trend is in the right direction. With mine life extensions looking likely, the broker upgrades to Outperform. Target rises to 50c from 40c.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.11
If BDR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.4, implying annual growth of -5.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates BGL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Superloop ((SLC)) has lodged a takeover offer for BigAir, which Morgans estimates values the shares at $1.09, assuming shareholders take 100% scrip.
The broker envisages limited downside risk for the transaction, noting the possibility, albeit unlikely, of a higher offer. The main risk is the value on conversion to Superloop stock and the Superloop share price staying at current levels.
Morgans considers BigAir an attractive entry to Superloop and raises its rating to Add from Hold. Target rises to $1.09 from 75c.
Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.05
If BGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BPT as Neutral (3) -
The results of the Kangaroo-1 exploration well in ex PEL 91, which intersected a 20 metre gross oil column in the Birkhead reservoir, are important for several reasons, UBS contends.
This demonstrates there is further exploration potential in the Western Flank fairway while the valuation of Drillsearch Energy was largely supported by its 40% stake in ex PEL 91.
With Beach Energy's 100% ownership of ex PEL 1, this represents an excellent return to exploration after a 12-month hiatus, the broker believes.
The company is now assessing its FY17 drilling plans and capital program. UBS retains a Neutral rating and 65c target.
Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.66, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of 48.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BTT as Neutral (3) -
Strong September quarter fund flows imply a lower risk from Brexit for BT Investment, Credit Suisse believes.
The broker remains cautious despite the business offering a compelling global expansion opportunity, because of residual Brexit risks and/or a rotation in the US back to domestic US equities where the company has a narrower product set.
The Neutral rating is maintained and the target is raised to $9.30 from $8.00.
Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If BTT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BTT as Neutral (3) -
BT Investment's net inflows in the September quarter were better than the broker had forecast. Throw in market gains and net forex movements and the broker has lifted earnings forecasts materially.
Target rises to $8.74 from $7.80, Neutral retained.
Target price is $8.74 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If BTT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 48.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BTT as Overweight (1) -
The company raised $2.2bn in net flows in the September quarter. Morgan Stanley believes the diversity of growth options enhances future prospects and supports the recent price/earnings re-rating.
FY17-18 earnings estimates are raised by 3%. Overweight rating retained. Target is raised to $11.00 from $10.50. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: $1.4
If BTT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates BTT as Hold (3) -
The company ended FY16 with funds under management up 7.2%. Morgans notes the business continues to attract solid net inflows and has recently expanded its depth in management to drive growth initiatives.
Marking to market results in a 1.6% upgrade to FY16 estimates of earnings per share and 3.4% for FY17. Morgans retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $10.46 from $10.04.
Target price is $10.46 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: $0.86
If BTT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates CIM as Sell (5) -
Probably the most remarkable item in Cimic's bidder statement for a full take-over of UGL is that the company has had no chance for a due diligence prior. UGL still has unresolved issues with its Ichthys project.
The analysts do concede on current numbers the deal should be accretive. No changes made.
Target price is $19.72 Current Price is $27.47 Difference: minus $7.75 (current price is over target).
If CIM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.44, suggesting downside of -32.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 103.00 cents and EPS of 140.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.5, implying annual growth of -1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 165.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 165.4, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CIM as Sell (5) -
Cimic has made an unconditional bid for UGL ((UGL)) at $3.15 a share for the remainder, having acquired a 13.84% stake.
Deutsche Bank calculates the transaction would be 8-13% accretive to earnings per share in FY17-20 but cash flow neutral given the costs associated with Ichthys.
Deutsche Bank makes no changes to forecasts until the board response from UGL is forthcoming. Sell retained. Target is $23.20.
Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $27.47 Difference: minus $4.27 (current price is over target).
If CIM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.44, suggesting downside of -32.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 98.00 cents and EPS of 154.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.5, implying annual growth of -1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 160.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 165.4, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CIM as No Rating (-1) -
Cimic has made a final and unconditional offer to acquire all of UGL at $3.15 which represents a 34% premium to the three month volume weighted average price of UGL, the broker notes.
The broker is advising and as such is now on research restriction for both companies.
Current Price is $27.47. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $18.44, suggesting downside of -32.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 99.30 cents and EPS of 165.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.5, implying annual growth of -1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 111.50 cents and EPS of 185.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 165.4, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CIM as Underweight (5) -
Cimic has made an unconditional bid for UGL ((UGL)) at $3.15 a share. Morgan Stanley estimates the transaction would move the company to a net debt position of $400m in 2016, ignoring underlying cash generation.
The broker observes, at face value, there appears to be little in the way of direct overlap between the businesses other than the fact UGL works as a sub-contractor to Cimic in some areas.
Strategically, the broker considers the bid less compelling, with UGL's exposure to passenger rail manufacture an area where Cimic has no experience and it still holds a potentially uncapped liability for several contracts at Ichthys.
Morgan Stanley retains its Underweight rating and Cautious industry view. Target is steady at $12.40.
Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $27.47 Difference: minus $15.07 (current price is over target).
If CIM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.44, suggesting downside of -32.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 127.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.5, implying annual growth of -1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 122.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 165.4, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates DLX as Lighten (4) -
Ord Minnett considers the company's earnings outlook has deteriorated with growth slowing in the maintenance and home improvement segment.
Only minor risks relate to disruptions from the Masters closure but the broker estimates volume growth for the underlying market is stepping down significantly over FY16-19 compared with the prior three-year period.
Lighten rating retained. Target is reduced to $6.15 from $6.35.
Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of 13.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -
Fortescue has acquired BC Iron's 75% interest in the Nullagine JV and will assume rehabilitation costs.
More important to the broker is Fortescue's ongoing cost reduction. Shipments may have slipped slightly recently but spot iron ore prices remain well above the broker's base case valuation, suggesting free cash flow yield will be greater and debt repayment more rapid than the broker's numbers currently suggest.
Outperform and $5.70 target retained.
Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.67
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 46.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of -45.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates FXJ as Outperform (1) -
The ongoing decline in metro print advertising revenue suggests the move to a weekday digital only model is getting closer and Credit Suisse believes the cost savings required to maintain profitability under such a model are achievable.
Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and $1.10 target. FY17 forecast EBITDA is reduced by 7% as Domain forecasts are lowered to reflect continued weakness in Sydney listings.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.175
If FXJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 5.76 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of 3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates IPL as Buy (1) -
The company failed in ramping up commercial production at its Louisiana ammonia plant by the close of FY16, but Citi analysts see a mild blessing as ammonia prices have been low.
Their analysis suggests both ammonia and Incitec Pivot's profits might be bottoming. On this premise, Citi retains the Buy rating, while dropping its price target to $3.20.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.34
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -34.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 31.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Buy (1) -
The commissioning of the WALA ammonia plant has been delayed slightly, with performance testing still underway. Deutsche Bank notes the project is within budget.
While reducing earnings forecasts by 1-14% to reflect revised foreign currency and ammonia price assumptions the broker notes, on the positive side, DAP and urea prices have stabilised and the major manufacturing plants are performing well.
Deutsche Bank now expects earnings to increase by 19% in FY17. Price target is reduced to $4.10 from $4.30. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $1.24
If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -34.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 31.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley notes reports that Woodside ((WPL)) has paired with Karoon Gas to evaluate the Tartaruga and Bauna oil assets in Brazil. Brazil's Petrobras and Karoon have acknowledged they are in discussions while no comment has been made by Woodside.
The broker believes a deal, if completed, would be transformative for Karoon, which has been in a 12-month bidding process on the assets and, given the company's cash position, would not be surprised if a third party is involved.
The broker retains an Equal-weight rating. In-line industry view retained. Target is $1.67.
Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.06
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 32.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of minus 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MHJ  MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Overnight Price: $1.61
Morgans rates MHJ as Add (1) -
First quarter sales growth was 6.8% and Morgans finds the outlook compelling, underpinned by the roll out of new stores, category expansion and the launch of a new brand.
The company has an attractive and long-dated growth profile in the broker's view and while the Australasian markets are relatively mature for the core Michael Hill brand, Canada is seen as the key opportunity. Add rating retained. Price target falls to $1.92 from $1.94.
Target price is $1.92 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.31
If MHJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Equal-weight (3) -
Macquarie Group's potential bid for the Green Investment Bank in the UK could mean a capital raising of up to $500m, Morgan Stanley contends. The broker believes it could be a neat strategic fit which enhances medium term growth prospects for equity under management.
The company has not acknowledged publicly it is involved in the process but, should Macquarie emerge as preferred bidder, Morgan Stanley believes any transaction would involve its specialist infrastructure business, MIRA, as a co-investor.
Equal-weight rating and In-Line sector view retained. Target is $74.00.
Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $83.93 Difference: minus $9.93 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $75.98, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 400.00 cents and EPS of 597.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 611.8, implying annual growth of -6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 403.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 400.00 cents and EPS of 577.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 634.5, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 427.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MYX as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
UBS upgrades earnings estimates on the back of FX updates. The broker expects the company can outperform generic industry growth through to 2021 and build a track record with successful integration of recently acquired products.
Given recent share price weakness, UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral to reflect a forecast excess return above its market return threshold.Target rises to $2.30 from $2.20.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.39
If MYX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -
Origin has announced a maiden LNG cargo from APLNG T2 and Citi analysts point out the timing is ahead of market expectations. Any revenue recognition is likely still three months away, predict the analysts.
Citi's forecasts already are near the top of company guidance and, on the analysts' own admission, some 10% above market consensus. Buy.
Target price is $6.67 Current Price is $5.56 Difference: $1.11
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY17:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.6, implying annual growth of 76.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PTM as Neutral (3) -
Funds under management in the September quarter were below expectations, up 3.2%.
While the growth outlook remains weak with continued fund outflows, Credit Suisse expects the buy-back will put a floor under the share price in the short term.
Neutral rating retained. Target is $5.25.
Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $0.05
If PTM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 5.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PTM as Neutral (3) -
Platinum saw lower net inflows over the September quarter and the broker has trimmed earnings forecasts as a result. Target falls to $5.07 from $5.21 and Neutral retained.
The broker prefers all of BT Asset Management ((BTT)), Henderson Group ((HGG)) and Magellan Financial (MFG)) to Platinum.
Target price is $5.07 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 5.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RMD as Buy (1) -
UBS updates FX assumptions and notes the September quarter generally delivered a positive revenue impact for those stocks reporting in US dollars, offset by any local cost hedge. The FY17 impact is flat for ResMed.
Buy rating retained. Target rises to US$78.25 from US$77.60.
Current Price is $8.51. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $9.63, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.11 cents and EPS of 37.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.73 cents and EPS of 42.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.5, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates SLC as Hold (3) -
Morgans updates forecasts to include the takeover of BigAir ((BGL)). Assuming success, this will allow Superloop to offer fibre and wireless solutions across Asia Pacific.
The broker expects Superloop to make a maiden EBITDA profit in the second half of FY17 as revenue from its Australian, Singaporean and Hong Kong businesses surpass its largely fixed cost base.
Hold rating retained. Target rises to $3.16 from $3.05.
Target price is $3.16 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.21
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates UGL as Neutral (3) -
Cimic has launched a full take-over offer of $3.15, having secured equity less than 14%, and with no due diligence involved.
Citi thinks the UGL board might find it hard to extract a better offer. Target moves to $3.15 from $2.80. Neutral.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If UGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -26.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 34.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates UGL as Buy (1) -
Cimic ((CIM)) has acquired a 13.84% stake in UGL and made an off-market bid at $3.15 per share for the remainder. Cimic believes the company's competencies complement its operations.
The UGL board has advised shareholders at this stage to take no action. Deutsche Bank believes UGL has attractive end-market exposures and a counter bid by a trade player is unlikely, although private equity could offer up to $3.78 and still generate an internal rate of return that is reasonable.
Buy retained with $2.36 target.
Target price is $2.36 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If UGL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -26.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates UGL as No Rating (-1) -
Cimic has made a final and unconditional offer to acquire all of UGL at $3.15 which represents a 34% premium to the three month volume weighted average price of UGL, the broker notes.
The broker is advising and as such is now on research restriction for both companies.
Current Price is $3.18. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -26.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.40 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
ANN - | ANSELL | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $23.64 |
APO - | APN OUTDOOR | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.19 |
BDR - | BEADELL RESOURCES | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.39 |
BGL - | BIGAIR GROUP | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.04 |
BPT - | BEACH ENERGY | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.73 |
BTT - | BT INVEST MANAGEMENT | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.60 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.60 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $9.60 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $9.60 | ||
CIM - | CIMIC GROUP | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $27.47 |
Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $27.47 | ||
No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $27.47 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $27.47 | ||
DLX - | DULUX GROUP | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.68 |
FMG - | FORTESCUE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.03 |
FXJ - | FAIRFAX MEDIA | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.93 |
IPL - | INCITEC PIVOT | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.86 |
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.86 | ||
KAR - | KAROON GAS | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.61 |
MHJ - | MICHAEL HILL | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.61 |
MQG - | MACQUARIE GROUP | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $83.93 |
MYX - | MAYNE PHARMA GROUP | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $1.91 |
ORG - | ORIGIN ENERGY | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.56 |
PTM - | PLATINUM | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.20 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.20 | ||
RMD - | RESMED | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $8.51 |
SLC - | SUPERLOOP | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.95 |
UGL - | UGL | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.18 |
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.18 | ||
No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.18 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 13 |
3. Hold | 11 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 3 |
Tuesday 11 October 2016
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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