Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse is not surprised by the equity raising which will provide capacity to fund growth initiatives.

Rent collection is also better than previously estimated as the company has received around 90% of rental payments from tenants over the last three months.

Most of the rental relief has largely been about deferrals.

Credit Suisse is attracted to the structural aspects of the child care and social infrastructure sectors but until the federal government clarifies future support of the early learning sector, uncertainties remain.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $2.42 from $2.19.

Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARF as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Arena REIT is raising $60m via a placement in order to fund growth opportunities over the next 18 months. Despite the pandemic, the company has confirmed FY20 distribution guidance of 13.9-14.0c.

Gearing will decline to less than 18% post the capital raising, which Morgan Stanley assesses will provide plenty of room to fund the expenditure required in the pipeline over the next 18 months and also provide potential for acquisitions.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight and the target is raised to $2.68 from $2.40. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.68 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.24
If ARF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AWC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The market in 2020 has experienced reduced demand because of lockdowns associated with the pandemic, amidst limited supply cuts. As restrictions are lifted, prices are expected to lift.

UBS envisages a surplus in the aluminium market in 2020 but a balanced alumina market. While alumina prices are now 10% above the mid April lows, rising input costs are likely to further steepen the cost curve.

The broker assesses Alumina Ltd is poised to benefit from this through margin expansion. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target raised to $2.10 from $1.50.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $0.43
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AYS as Outperform (1) -

The company will acquire 77,000 mobile subscribers from Optus for $15.8m. Macquarie expects the transaction will be modestly accretive in FY21. Amaysim has also reiterated FY20 guidance for underlying operating earnings of $33-39m.

Macquarie envisages value for shareholders on the assumption that the company can unlock strategic value in its subscriber base and retains an Outperform rating. Target is $0.64.

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.09
If AYS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Buy (1) -

Aurizon has completed the refinancing of the network bank facilities, totalling $1.3bn. The company has also reiterated its FY20 underlying earnings (EBIT) guidance of $880-930m.

Citi considers the refinancing a positive development, given market concerns around access to funding and capital for coal-related companies.

The broker also considers the valuation undemanding, noting Aurizon is one of the few companies on the ASX that have maintained guidance for FY20. Buy rating and $5.40 target maintained.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $0.58
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

At current levels the market is pricing in depressed FY20/21 earnings in perpetuity, Credit Suisse assesses, which is unrealistic.

Trading is challenged but the broker considers there is a clear opportunity for even partial restoration of what could be considered reasonable mid-cycle trading.

Outperform rating and $12.80 target maintained.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $12.19 Difference: $0.61
If BSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.47, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) -

Citi reduces estimates for FY20-22 because of lower funds under management along with performance and transaction fees.

However, importantly, the broker expects Charter Hall will beat FY20 guidance for earnings per share and forecasts 43% growth. Target is reduced to $11.09 from $17.50. A Buy rating is reiterated.

Target price is $11.09 Current Price is $9.56 Difference: $1.53
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.57, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

The pandemic may result in elevated usage of flu vaccine in the upcoming northern hemisphere winter, Citi suggests. The broker understands that many governments are in discussions with manufacturers to increase supply.

For every 10m incremental doses supplied by CSL at a 65% incremental gross margin, Citi estimates earnings (EBIT) would increase by US$38m.

The downside for CSL is in the Behring division in that plasma collections in the US have declined since late March. A -20% decline in plasma collection in the fourth quarter would result in a -US$250m decline in earnings relative to current forecasts.

Hence, potential benefits from higher flu vaccine sales in FY21 are not expected to fully compensate for the potential downside from lower plasma collection. Buy rating and $334 target maintained.

Target price is $334.00 Current Price is $293.90 Difference: $40.1
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $314.81, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GWA as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Home improvement activity has been supported by changes to working arrangements during the pandemic. Credit Suisse believes GWA Group will be a beneficiary although growth has historically been more modest compared with hardware sales.

The broker likes the primary exposure to new housing and is less concerned about a decline in demand for interior projects as restrictions ease.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and the target is raised to $3.15 from $2.20.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IFN as Hold (3) -

Infigen Energy has received an offer of $0.80 by UAC Energy and Morgans considers the price fair as compared to other offers. The broker does not expect regulatory complications although notes the Infigen board has not yet recommended the bid.

Morgans retains its Hold rating with target price increased to the offer price of $0.80 from $0.574.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If IFN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.69, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JMS as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie initiates coverage of Jupiter Mines with an Outperform rating and $0.35 target. The stock offers a dividend yield in excess of 15% which rises to more than 20% under a spot price scenario, the broker assesses.

The dividend is underpinned by cash flow from the 49.9% interest in the Tshipi Borwa manganese mine in South Africa.

Macquarie assesses there is considerable upside to forecasts through both increasing volumes and reduced costs.

The mine is the company's sole source of cash flow but a clean balance sheet enables it to effectively return all cash received from the manganese mine to shareholders. The mine is also low cost with a long life.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.05
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in February.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Buy (1) -

Citi updates estimates to reflect the pandemic-related impacts. Estimates for earnings per share decline by around -4-18% for the near term.

This is driven by lower residential earnings and lower contributions from retail, office and industrial post the pandemic. Target is reduced to $2.77 from $3.74. Buy rating reiterated.

Target price is $2.77 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.27
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie was disappointed with the trading update and the outlook for the fourth quarter as the impact of the pandemic creates uncertainties and challenges. The fourth quarter is Nufarm's largest seasonal quarter.

Europe is experiencing the greatest impact from the pandemic and earnings are likely to be well behind in the second half.

Meanwhile, North America has been affected by changed consumer demand in the turf and ornamental segments, although improved crop protection performance has more than offset this weakness in the third quarter.

Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral and reduces the target to $4.85 from $5.10.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes cropping has rebounded in North America and earnings were higher in the third quarter compared with the prior corresponding quarter.

However, hot, dry weather has reduced demand in Europe and competition in the fungicides market is affecting margins. In Australasia the improved performance has continued into the fourth quarter.

Overweight rating. Cautious industry view. Target is $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: $0.69
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

Covid-19 is starting to impact Nufarm’s fourth quarter and Europe’s second-half earnings forecast has been lowered by Morgans. The broker also expects an increase in finance costs with more FX volatility.

The balance sheet looks fine following the sale of the South American operations for $1bn. Morgans downgrades its rating to Reduce from Hold due to uncertainty over earnings with target price increased to $4.76 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.76 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Neutral (3) -

Perseus Mining will acquire Exore Resources ((ERX)) in an all-scrip deal which values the transaction at $64m. The latter has recently defined a resource within trucking distance of Sissingue.

The company has indicated that if these resources are expanded the package could consist of a stand-alone development.

Alternatively, ore could be trucked to Sissingue's gold plant to extend mine life. Macquarie considers the transaction positive, given the company's track record of developing gold assets in Cote d'Ivoire.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.03
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Neutral (3) -

The company has signalled the upcoming changes to contract structure, effective July 1. Concessions will cease and recruiters/corporates on subscriptions will transfer back to minimum dollar commitments.

Contract periods will be reduced to 6 months from 12 months. UBS makes no changes to estimates at this stage and retains a Neutral rating and $15.25 target.

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $20.60 Difference: minus $5.35 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.76, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Residential stimulus and the restructure of stamp duty are expected to provide support for Stockland. Morgan Stanley lifts FY21 and FY22 settlement estimates to 5000 and 5400 lots, respectively.

The broker takes a more positive view, given housing stimulus at both federal and state levels and support for retail as stores re-open faster than expected.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight and the target raised to $4.30 from $3.10. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.47
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLK as Outperform (1) -

Service levels appear to be returning to normal. In Australia no major reductions in transit systems have been experienced during the peak of the pandemic and NSW transit is increasing services.

Meanwhile, the company has advised there is no change to contractual payments in Singapore.

In London the pending return to normal service levels and the arrangements with London transport also indicate scheduling is delivering unchanged revenue.

Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $4.53 from $4.38.

Target price is $4.53 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0
If SLK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse notes risks to the balance sheet, which were the focus when the risk of store closures was high, have subsided.

While cautious about discretionary expenditure because of weakening household income, the broker expects Super Retail will benefit from a swing to domestic holidays and the related boost from consumer spending on recreational goods.

The broker assesses there is around $40bn of international travel expenditure to be reallocated to saving, domestic holidays, and other areas of expenditure in FY21.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $9.97 from $7.80.

Target price is $9.97 Current Price is $8.66 Difference: $1.31
If SUL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.82, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TAH as Lighten (4) -

Tabcorp's small lotteries draws have strongly outperformed historical averages. Ord Minnett forecast FY20 lotteries revenue of $2.63bn, a reduction of -0.5% on a year ago.

Online sales have remained resilient because of the migration to digital from retail. Still, retail remains the dominant channel. The broker maintains a Lighten rating and $2.10 target.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: minus $1.35 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as Resume Coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie resumes coverage with an Outperform rating and $4.72 target. The $140m equity raising strengthens the balance sheet which should allow investors to focus on the outlook beyond the impacts of the pandemic in the short term, the broker assesses.

More positive trends are expected as bars and restaurants open and restrictions ease. The beer output in China has turned positive in April, the broker adds.

Target price is $4.72 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $0.34
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VOC as Neutral (3) -

Reports suggest Vocus Communications is close to finalising refinancing with 17 banks. This removes the immediate refinancing risk, UBS points out.

Covenant risk remains and even a potential delay in covenant step-downs under new debt agreements is not expected to allay risks of a breach.

However, the broker considers the risk of a capital raising is now reduced. Neutral rating and $3.85 target maintained.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.65
If VOC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates Z1P as Add (1) -

Zip Co has entered into an agreement to acquire all remaining shares in US-based Buy Now, Pay Later QuadPay (Zip Co already owns 14%). Morgans considers this move will de-risk and accelerate the company’s US market entry.

The funding structure using convertible notes and warrants will avoid dilution but carries risk of less favourable outcomes for existing shareholders, comments the broker.

Net profit forecasts have been reduced over the next three years, with Morgans expecting QuadPay to incur losses in the near term. The broker maintains its Add rating with target price increasing to $7 from $4.09.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: $1.02
If Z1P meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources