Australian Broker Call

September 29, 2017

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

Last Updated: 10:32 AM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BPT - BEACH ENERGY Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
CGC - COSTA GROUP Upgrade to Hold from Lighten Ord Minnett
ORI - ORICA Downgrade to Hold from Buy Deutsche Bank
A2M  THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy

Overnight Price: $5.99

Credit Suisse rates A2M as Outperform (1) -

The company's Chinese label infant formula products have received registration. Credit Suisse believes this registration adds to the in-market credibility in China.

On the broker's earnings growth projections for FY18 and FY19 further room is envisaged for expansion in the trading multiple.

Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to NZ$7.65 from NZ$6.01.

Current Price is $5.99. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.00, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

Synlait ((SM1)), the infant formula processor for the a2 Platinum brand, has received registration for the export of the infant formula to China. The announcement is two months earlier than UBS expected.

The broker considers the infant formula momentum exceptional. While the US remains at least two years from profitability, the company is now looking at new emerging markets, with a focus on Southeast Asia.

Neutral maintained. Target is NZ$5.27.

Current Price is $5.99. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.00, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 19.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.6.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 25.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

Overnight Price: $0.83

Citi rates BPT as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Beach Energy has effectively used its "lazy" balance sheet to buy Lattice Energy for $1.585bn from Origin Energy ((ORG)), a deal that will transform the company and make it stand out from its peers in Australia, comment Citi analysts.

While it is not a given this deal will be earnings accretive in the short term, Citi sees plenty of positives and takes an optimistic view regarding options available to Beach Energy to derive additional value from the acquired assets.

With the target price jumping 20% to 92c, Citi is upgrading to Buy from Neutral. As many investors are now looking at these assets for the first time, Citi suggests Beach management must now deliver earnings and demonstrate potential for material cost savings over the coming 12 months,

Target price is $0.92 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.095
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of -65.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.10 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 15.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Overweight (1) -

The company has acquired Lattice Energy for $1.58bn, providing diversification from the Cooper Basin, increased reserve life and scale. Morgan Stanley believes this, ultimately, separates the company from its peers in the mid-cap energy sector.

The broker notes this is a large transaction for the Beach as it will move into the offshore business and require new expertise.

The company has flagged that Lattice Energy gas pricing will be above its FY18 price of around $6 per gigajoule.

Overweight. Price target is $0.80. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of -65.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 15.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Hold (3) -

  Ord Minnett finds a number of positive aspects to the purchase of Lattice Energy assets from Origin Energy ((ORG)).

The broker estimates the transaction will be significantly accretive and many of the new supply agreements expire within three years, providing medium-term exposure to spot gas prices. There could also be development opportunities.

Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $0.82 from $0.72.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $0.82 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of -65.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 15.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC  COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture

Overnight Price: $5.23

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates CGC as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett raises earnings estimates by 5% and the potential for higher citrus export pricing, offsetting margin declines in the berry category, leads it to change its view. The broker finds no clear negative catalyst now.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten. Target is raised to $5.01 from $4.68.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.01 Current Price is $5.23 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If CGC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.77.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.74.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ING  INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

Overnight Price: $3.89

Macquarie rates ING as Outperform (1) -

The company is undertaking a strategic review of commercial stockfeed and Macquarie believes the review has a bias to growth in terms of how to build out the existing position as the only trans-Tasman producer.

The broker notes the company's focus over the last 12 months has been to extend the tenor of key contracts and include rise and fall clauses for feed and other cost recovery.

Macquarie considers a valuation undemanding and retains a Outperform rating and $4 target.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.11
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 29.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 72.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 30.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 7.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL  INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture

Overnight Price: $3.61

Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank reduces earnings forecasts by -4-6% to reflect revised foreign currency assumptions as well as slightly lower diammonium phosphate prices in FY17.

Buy. Target is reduced to $4.00 from $4.05.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: $0.39
If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.62, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 138.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 22.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IVC  INVOCARE LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services

Overnight Price: $15.68

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates IVC as Lighten (4) -

The company has announced its independent funeral fund, Over 50 Guardian Friendly Society, has sold a property that will boost net profit in 2017 by around $30m.

The transaction does not influence underlying earnings, and cash flow will only be realised in future years on the delivery of the pre-paid funeral services.

Lighten rating. Target is raised to $13.30 from $13.15.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $15.68 Difference: minus $2.38 (current price is over target).
If IVC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.98, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of -9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.4, implying annual growth of 1.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG  MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

Overnight Price: $23.20

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley suspects the company is set to surprise the market with a $1.5bn Global Trust raising, likely to be announced in early October.

The broker envisages around 5% upside risks to consensus FY18 earnings but declining organic flows holds it back from being more positive for the longer term.

Equal-weight retained. Target is raised to $26 from $25. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $23.20 Difference: $2.8
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.28, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.8, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 153.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.4, implying annual growth of 22.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

Overnight Price: $7.50

Deutsche Bank rates ORG as Hold (3) -

The company has announced the sale of Lattice Energy to Beach Energy ((BPT)) for $1.585bn.

While Beach has not provided guidance on the pricing implications, the broker expects this marks an upward adjustment in the pricing for volume sold to Origin.

Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $6.90 from $7.00.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.85, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 29.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Accumulate (2) -

The company will sell its Lattice Energy assets to Beach Energy, allowing it to realise value for a non-core asset that has been capital constrained.

Ord Minnett notes the divestment will simplify the business and allow the company to focus its integrated gas unit on its unconventional gas expertise.

The broker retains an Accumulate rating and lowers the target to $8.25 from $8.30.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $0.75
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.85, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 29.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI  ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

Overnight Price: $20.38

Deutsche Bank rates ORI as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Deutsche Bank downgrades to Hold from Buy as the stock is trading at a 1% premium to its revised valuation. The broker believes the increased explosives volumes and strip ratios from which the company will benefit will be partly offset by foreign currency movements and increased sourcing costs in Europe. 

Deutsche Bank reduces earnings forecasts by -3-10% to reflect the impact of revised FX assumptions. Target is reduced to $20.25 from $21.30.

Target price is $20.25 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.46, suggesting downside of -14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.9, implying annual growth of 15.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.4, implying annual growth of 1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RSG  RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

Overnight Price: $1.02

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie makes modest changes to production and cost assumptions after incorporating the latest reserves and resources update. Reserves increase by 5% while resources are unchanged at 12m ounces.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and a $1.50 target.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.475
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 52.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of -22.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 6.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

Overnight Price: $13.63

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the company is well-placed to benefit from the proposed US Federal corporate tax rate cut to 20% from 35% in 2018. The broker estimates the company generates 33% of group profits from the US.

The broker's existing forecasts provide for 26% growth in earnings per share in FY19, as a company starts to benefit from the 2016 and 2017 vintages. However, a lower tax rate could supply another wave of earnings upgrades.

Target is $15. Overweight rating retained. Industry outlook is Cautious.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $1.37
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.00, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.20 cents and EPS of 47.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of 24.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 41.90 cents and EPS of 59.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.2, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
A2M - THE A2 MILK CO Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.99
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.99
BPT - BEACH ENERGY Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $0.83
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.83
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.83
CGC - COSTA GROUP Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.23
ING - INGHAMS GROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.89
IPL - INCITEC PIVOT Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.61
IVC - INVOCARE Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $15.68
MFG - MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $23.20
ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $7.50
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.50
ORI - ORICA Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $20.38
RSG - RESOLUTE MINING Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.02
TWE - TREASURY WINE ESTATES Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $13.63
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

7

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

6

4. Reduce

1

Friday 29 September 2017

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