Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Citi’s July app data analysis shows a softer start to Q3 for Life360 in International markets. Downloads were down -6% year-on-year and monthly active users (MAU) net adds lower than in June. By contrast, US metrics improved.

The broker cautions against reading too much into one month’s data, noting the back-to-school period will be key.

For the 2Q result, Citi forecasts US$110m revenue (up 30% year-on-year) in line with consensus and US$14m of earnings (EBITDA), 5% higher than the consensus forecast, with upside risk from lower spend.

US MAUs are forecast at 47.2m (up 17% yoy) and International at 41.3m (up 37% yoy), with growth aided by marketing and potential Tile integration benefits, explain the analysts.

Unchanged Buy rating and $46.20 target.

Target price is $46.20 Current Price is $37.91 Difference: $8.29
If 360 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.68, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARB as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgraded ARB Corp to Neutral from Sell on moderation in the downside risk underlying its previous Sell rating.

The renewed assessment follows a re-basing of forward margin expectations, stabilisation in domestic new vehicle sales, and higher US cost investment.

The broker notes profit before tax (PBT) margins have been cut to 18.9% from 20.8% over the last 12 months, and medium-term consensus pre-tax profit is now -12% lower.

The broker's FY25 PBT forecast is -5% below the consensus and for FY26 it is -8% below. Target lifted to $35 from $31 on higher valuation multiple.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.50 Difference: $0.5
If ARB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.78, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVH as Speculative Hold (3) -

Avita Medical reported a notably disappointing 2Q2025 trading update, according to Bell Potter, with revenues of $18.2m below consensus by -16% with earnings before interest and tax, loss making at -$11.1m

Revenues rose but earnings were impacted by the introduction of Medicare Administrative Contractors to monitor pricing on new CPT codes for Recell from January 2025, which resulted in a decline in demand for Recell by -20% over 1H25.

This equates to lost revenue of -US$5m, the analyst highlights, over the top ten accounts with Medicaid patients, representing circa 70%-75% of Recell volume.

Management lowered 2025 revenue guidance to US$76m-US$81m from US$100m-US$106m, prompting a renegotiation of debt covenants. Cash ended the quarter at around US$15.7m with an estimated quarterly cash burn of -US$10m.

Speculative Hold retained. Target price falls to $1.70 from $2.70.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.21
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AVH as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans has repeated its assessment from Friday: Avita Medical's 2Q25 report represents a significant miss versus expectations.

Morgans points out there was no sales growth on the quarter as delays and complications continue to secure reimbursement from the regional Medicare contractors.

Management has been forced to make large downgrades to guidance, and pushed guidance around profitability to the middle of next year.

The broker finds solace in the fact management has successfully rolled through cost-base reductions, as planned, decreasing the net loss with more to come in 3Q.

Alas, Morgans now also believes another capital raising will be necessary to successfully lead this company to profitability.

Reduced forecasts have pulled back the price target to $2 from $3.76 prior. Speculative Buy rating retained with the comment that both balance sheet and execution risks have increased.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.51
If AVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, Car Group's FY25 underlying net profit of $377m was in line with Citi's estimate and the consensus. 

On the positive side, Trader Interactive (TI) revenue was 1% ahead of expectation and the FY26 guidance for double-digit growth will ease concerns from the macro side, the broker reckons.

LatAm finance revenue growth slowed in 2H but was still a positive outcome. Margin declines in TI and Asia EBITDA are seen as a negative, and dividend was -2% lower than the broker's forecast.

Overall, the outlook for TI was better than feared and seen as a reason for stock outperformance today.

Buy. Target price $42.85.

In a final preview, the broker noted the following:

Given Car Group pre-reported FY25 results, Citi suggests attention now shifts to the group's divisional outlook, particularly for US-based Trader Interactive.

Due to challenging industry conditions, the broker expects conservative guidance of “solid” revenue growth for Trader Interactive.

At the group level, the analyst anticipates guidance will indicate “good” revenue and EBITDA growth, aligning with Citi’s 12% forecast and modest margin improvement.

The broker reiterates a Buy rating and lifts its target price to $42.85 from $42.60.

Target price is $42.85 Current Price is $37.00 Difference: $5.85
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.69, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) -

Charter Hall Group has secured a $2.1bn mandate to manage Challenger ((CGF)) Life’s property assets.

Citi explains the REIT has launched the wholesale pooled Charter Hall Convenience Retail Fund, seeded with $1.35bn in funds under management (FUM), targeting $2.5bn via acquisitions.

Charter Hall Convenience Retail Fund is backed by $1.75bn equity raised to date, note the analysts, with some seed assets transferred from Charter Hall Retail REIT ((CQR)).

On a net basis, Citi estimates the announcements add $2.6-2.8bn FUM, or around 4% of December-24 levels, with most uplift from the Challenger mandate.

Further near-term Charter Hall Convenience Retail Fund growth is expected from additional wholesale equity commitments. Citi views this as a positive signal of an improving market backdrop.

Unchanged Buy rating and $22.50 target ahead of the 21 August result.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $21.77 Difference: $0.73
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.96, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter points to a guidance miss by Cosol's update with both revenue and earnings (EBITDA) failing to meet the lower end of the previous guidance range which management attributed to "timing issues with a number of product sales".

The analyst has lowered the company's FY25 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -3% and -5%, respectively, which aligns with the unaudited results. The FY26 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) estimates have also been downgraded by -2% and -6%, respectively.

Bell Potter's estimates now meet the company's guidance for high single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion to 15.4% in FY26 from 14.4% in FY25.

No change to Buy rating. Target slips to 80c from 90c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.23
If COS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COS as Buy (1) -

Cosol provided another FY25 trading update where revenue fell short of Ord Minnett's estimate by -1.1% and the guidance by -2.3%. Adjusted EBITDA is also -2.6% lower than the broker's forecast and -4% below the consensus.

The company reiterated the miss was due to delayed contract commencements into FY26. Guidance for FY26 revenue growth was reiterated at high-single digit while reported EBITDA is expected to grow by double digits.

The broker believes the targets are achievable.

Buy. Target trimmed to $1.05 from $1.12.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.48
If COS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Charter Hall Retail REIT’s $294m sale of four wholly owned assets. Two joint venture interests (RP1 and RP2) have also been transferred into the new Charter Hall Convenience Retail Fund, with Charter Hall Retail REIT taking a 22% stake worth $385m.

This reduces balance sheet gearing for Charter Hall Retail REIT to 27% and look-through gearing to 35%, providing dry powder for further investment, suggest the analysts.

The Charter Hall Convenience Retail Fund is currently unlevered, with potential to gear up to 30%. This gives Charter Hall Retail REIT optionality to co-invest, increase its CCRF stake, or pursue triple net lease strategies, explains the broker.

Citi views the fund launch, along with the recent Hotel Property Investments deal, as integral to the REIT's ongoing portfolio curation strategy. Buy rating and $4.20 target maintained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.24
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Against a backdrop of livestock prices gaining 15% and 27% for sheep and cattle markers since Bell Potter updated on Elders in June, the ACCC has again delayed the Delta acquisition decision.

The analyst now sees upside potential to livestock turn-off (removal from stocks), than previously assumed for FY26. Crop inputs look set to be higher also, with improved weather and rain outlooks.

The delay in the Delta decision is likely to underpin earnings volatility for FY26/FY27, as Bell Potter believes the acquisition will go ahead.

Target raised to $9.45 from $9.10. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $7.48 Difference: $1.97
If ELD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.83, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

GQG Partners was hit in July by a large institutional outflow of -US$1bn, which caused net outflows of -US$1.4bn.

Macquarie believes the defensive positioning of the portfolios is not helping, and could remain a "headwind" for future net flows, and lowers its EPS estimates by -3.4% for 2025 and -7.1% for 2026.

Target price slips to $2.64 from $2.90. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $2.64 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.91
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

UBS notes GQG Partners' FUM declined -34% m/m in July to US$166.6bn, missing its forecast of US$167.7bn, and marking the largest monthly outflow since the IPO.

The outflow was largely due to -US$1bn redemption from a global institutional mandate. The broker believes the international performance where a single US$53bn mandate resides, continues to see net inflows.

Analysis of 3-year CIO performance suggests the current underperformance is within historical ranges, but the recent outflow is still expected to lead to a downgrade to the consensus outlook.

FY25 EPS trimmed by -1% and FY26 by -9% to reflect forecast of -US$12bn net outflows until June next year.

Buy. Target lowered to $2.35 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.62
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 48.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes media reports the world’s largest manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (CATL), has suspended production at its Jiangxi lithium mine for three months.

The broker's base case assumes a two-to-three month halt. The removal of around -9kt/month LCE is not expected to create a hard deficit but could lift sentiment for equities in the short term, commentary suggests.

Citi will monitor high-frequency data for signs of destocking, with current inventories around 140kt LCE.

On implied pricing, the analysts point out IGO Ltd is trading as if lithium were around US$1300/t versus spot at circa US$825/t.

The broker’s preferred ASX100 exposure is Neutral-rated Pilbara Minerals, while Patriot Battery Metals ((PMT)) is rated Buy among small caps. The $4.10 target and Neutral rating for IGO Ltd are unchanged.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting downside of -23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects FY25 to be in the market’s rear-view, with attention shifting to whether Imdex delivers a more upbeat outlook at the full-year result.

While juniors are largely inactive, majors and intermediate miners are driving activity growth, with encouraging signs from the US, Africa, and Central Asia, observes the broker. Hence, Citi sees FY26 earnings support even without junior participation.

FY25 EBITDA is forecast at $128m by the broker, with 4Q revenue 11% above 3Q and 2H margins flat on the 1H.

Citi anticipates a return to resilience after earlier revenue growth lagged exploration metrics, and expects R&D capitalisation to moderate following a recent acquisition.

The broker's target price rises to $3.15 from $2.80 on higher multiples. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

In a first look at today's result, Citi notes JB Hi-Fi delivered FY25 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $708m, about 1% ahead of consensus, with both JB Hi-Fi Australia and The Good Guys outperforming expectations.

A 100c special dividend and 105c final dividend were declared, alongside a higher FY26 payout ratio target of 70–80%.

Inventory rose 13% yer-on-year, signaling to the broker confidence ahead of Black Friday, with July like-for-like sales up 5.1% for JB Hi-Fi Australia and 3.8% for The Good Guys.

Gross margin trends diverged, with JB Hi-Fi Australia down -28bps in 2H25 and The Good Guys up 87bps, a notable turnaround from 1H25 declines, highlight the analysts.

CEO Terry Smart will retire in October, to be succeeded by COO Nick Wells, viewed by Citi as a capable and experienced successor.

Buy. Target $120.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $117.70 Difference: $2.3
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $99.37, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTR as Sell (5) -

Citi notes media reports the world’s largest manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (CATL), has suspended production at its Jiangxi lithium mine for three months.

The broker's base case assumes a two-to-three month halt. The removal of around -9kt/month LCE is not expected to create a hard deficit but commentary syggests it could lift sentiment for equities in the short term.

Citi will monitor high-frequency data for signs of destocking, with current inventories around 140kt LCE.

On implied pricing, the analysts point out Liontown Resources is trading as if lithium were around US$1,350/t versus spot at circa US$825/t.

The broker’s preferred ASX100 exposure is Neutral-rated Pilbara Minerals, while Patriot Battery Metals ((PMT)) is rated Buy among small caps. The 40c target and Sell rating for Liontown Resources are unchanged.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting downside of -40.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAD as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter expects Mader Group will generate FY25 revenue of $870m and net profit after tax of $57.3m, underpinned by robust production and shipment growth by iron ore companies in the June quarter.

Mining activity in North America has picked up substantially since the Nov 2024 election, with the analyst seeing growth in Mader's key mining markets, and the company able to deliver its five-year revenue and net profit after tax targets in FY26.

This implies a high single-digit EPS growth compound rate through to FY31.

Buy rating retained. Target price hiked to $9 from $6.70, on a lower weighted average cost of capital assumption and higher valuation. No change to the analyst's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: $1.19
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes media reports the world’s largest manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (CATL), has suspended production at its Jiangxi lithium mine for three months.

The broker's base case assumes a two-to-three month halt. The removal of around -9kt/month LCE is not expected to create a hard deficit but could lift sentiment for equities in the short term, commentary speculates.

Citi will monitor high-frequency data for signs of destocking, with current inventories around 140kt LCE.

On implied pricing, the analysts point out Mineral Resources is trading as if lithium were around US$800/t versus spot at circa US$825/t.

The broker’s preferred ASX100 exposure is Neutral-rated Pilbara Minerals, while Patriot Battery Metals ((PMT)) is rated Buy among small caps. The $31 target and Neutral rating for Mineral Resources are unchanged.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $33.98 Difference: minus $2.98 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.00, suggesting downside of -18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MND as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Bell Potter downgrades Monadelphous Group to Sell from Hold, with the target price set at $16.50 from $16.20, as the stock price is considered overvalued at current levels, with most of the gains underpinned by multiple expansion (valuation), and now sits around peak-cycle value.

The broker flags revenue growth of 8% for FY25, which is in line with the company's outlook, and earnings (EBITDA) margin to rise to 7.2% by 88bps. Contracts awarded for July have come in over $210m, higher by 5% over last year.

Bell Potter lifts its forecast gross margin for FY26 by 10bps to 9.4%. No change to FY25 EPS estimate, FY26/FY27 forecast EPS rises by 3% in both years.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $19.72 Difference: minus $3.22 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.50, suggesting downside of -11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Citi remains Buy-rated on Nick Scali, citing improving A&NZ sales momentum from a housing cycle recovery, which should deliver strong operating leverage and help fund UK expansion until breakeven.

The broker forecasts FY26 sales will rise 7%, supported by lower interest rates, recent double-digit quarterly order growth, and higher customer deposits.

While UK breakeven may take longer, Citi sees medium-term upside from better staffing, normalised marketing, a new distribution centre, and reduced reliance on interest-free financing. FY26 losses forecast at circa -$8m versus a -$14m loss in FY25.

Five A&NZ store openings are planned for FY26, but site availability may limit rollout speed, suggests Citi.

At a later conference call with brokers, management signaled medium-term potential to lift gross margins beyond 58% in the UK, highlights the broker.

Citi explains this uplift will be driven by the addition of a second distribution centre and a reduction in the interest-free period once the brand is more established.

The target price is raised to $24.40 from $20.64.

Target price is $24.40 Current Price is $20.49 Difference: $3.91
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie emphasises Nick Scali reported a robust result for A&NZ in 2H25, which continues to generate 90% of forecast revenue for FY26.

July like-for-like sales grew 7.1% on the prior year, with the analyst pointing to weak comps from last period for June/July 2024.

Gross margin came in above expectations by circa 95bps, with A&NZ gross margin anticipated to return to 66% for FY26 earnings forecasts.

The UK revenue for FY25 missed by -$11.9m against the broker's estimate, but robust margin improvement suggests the strategy is working.

Macquarie tweaks its EPS forecasts, with FY26 unchanged and FY27 lifted by 1%.

No change to Outperform rating. Target raised to $21.90 from $19.90, and Macquarie changes analyst coverage.

Target price is $21.90 Current Price is $20.49 Difference: $1.41
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCK as Upgrade to Lighten from Sell (4) -

Nick Scali's FY25 result largely met expectations with Ord Minnett explaining a strong performance in Australasia was offset by a big miss on revenue and higher losses in the UK operation.

Ord Minnett expects strong Australasian June quarter sales and written order growth to boost FY26 earnings, implementing significant upgrades to earnings forecasts. However, most of it was offset by higher loss forecasts for the UK.

EPS forecasts for FY26-27 lifted by 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Target rises to $18 from $16 (was $14.50 in February). Rating upgraded to Lighten from Sell.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $20.49 Difference: minus $2.49 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Citi expects NRW Holdings to achieve a robust result for FY25, due to strength in civil and minerals, energy & technology, in spite of challenges arising over the year with the CFO leaving, bad weather, and OneSteel issues.

Commentary suggests FY26 is shaping up as a better year, underpinned by work in train, which should be sufficient for the company to generate top line consensus expectations.

Management is expected to announce conservative FY26 guidance. Citi flags upside potential for margins, particularly if weather conditions improve across FY26.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $3.65 target.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.29
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PBH as Hold (3) -

Mixi Australia has raised its takeover offer for PointsBet Holdings to $1.25 per share, and moved it to unconditional from minimum acceptance of 50.1%.

The PointsBet board has announced it unanimously recommends shareholders accept the offer, in the absence of a higher offer.

There are no changes to Bell Potter's EPS forecasts, which are aligned to the lower end of FY25 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) guidance.

No change to Hold rating. Target moves to $1.25 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If PBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes media reports the world’s largest manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co (CATL), has suspended production at its Jiangxi lithium mine for three months.

The broker's base case assumes a two-to-three month halt. The removal of around -9kt/month LCE is not expected to create a hard deficit but comentary suggests the news could lift sentiment for equities in the short term.

Citi will monitor high-frequency data for signs of destocking, with current inventories around 140kt LCE.

On implied pricing, the analysts point out Pilbara Minerals is trading as if lithium were around US$1200/t versus spot at circa US$825/t.

The broker’s preferred ASX100 exposure is Neutral-rated Pilbara Minerals, while Patriot Battery Metals ((PMT)) is rated Buy among small caps. The $1.80 target for Pilbara Minerals is unchanged.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting downside of -23.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates QBE as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter assesses strong H1 results for QBE Insurance, with net profit of $1,022m, up 27% year-on-year compared to H1 FY24, exceeding consensus expectations of $838m.

Less positively, premium rate renewals slowed, note the analysts, with Q2 rates only increasing by 0.8%, a sharp drop from the 2.1% increase over the year.

The combined ratio improved by 1 percentage point to 92.8%, but underlying claims worsened, partially offset by better catastrophe loss and prior year development, explains the broker.

Investment returns benefited from currency gains of $36m and higher returns on risk assets, notes the broker, though credit spread losses were notable.

QBE is navigating a softening environment, highlights Bell Potter, with rates expected to remain subdued and inflation pressures ongoing.

The insurer's diversification and complex underwriting pools provide some stability, but underlying metrics are weakening, explains the broker.

Bell Potter lowers its target price to $21.20 from $21.40 and maintains a Hold rating.

Target price is $21.20 Current Price is $21.39 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.71, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Citi views the market’s negative reaction to QBE Insurance's 1H25 result as excessive.

Concerns were focused on slower 2Q rate growth, an underlying combined operating ratio (COR) of 94.6% versus 92.5% guidance, and softer 2H gross written premium (GWP) growth expectations, observes the broker.

The analysts believe these concerns overlook potentially conservative reserving practices, a deliberately cautious 1H approach, and ongoing profitable growth opportunities in a mostly rational market.

QBE’s reserving is the strongest it has been, notes Citi, with longer release lags possibly enabling future prior year development (PYD) benefits.

CAT allowances also appear conservative, suggesting scope for favourable outcomes despite recent high global CAT activity.

Large losses of about -US$100m were likely above average and may not recur, suggests Citi. The broker's EPS forecasts increase by 5% and the target price rises to $26.20 from $26.10. Buy maintained.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $21.39 Difference: $4.81
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.71, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Neutral (3) -

QBE Insurance reported better-than-expected gross written premium and group combined operating ratio, which failed to impress the market, Macquarie states, as investors track to "risk-off" mode for the 2H2025.

Removing the CAT beat by -80bps, and reserve release of -100bps, the underlying combined operating ratio was nearer to around 94%, which the broker views as one reason for the market reading it as a sign that the rate cycle has turned.

Macquarie adopts a different view, believing the insurer is managing a portfolio of risks, including a beat for CAT in 1H compared to the second-worst catastrophe period in history. Management retained 2025 guidance.

Macquarie raises its 2025 forecast EPS by 15%, underpinned by higher investment income and lower reinsurance costs, while its 2026 estimate is lowered by -2% due to changed assumptions.

Neutral rating retained. Target lifts to $23.30 from $23.00.

Target price is $23.30 Current Price is $21.39 Difference: $1.91
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.71, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes QBE Insurance's 1H25 adjusted net profit beat its forecast by 15% and the consensus by 18%, with combined operating ratio (COR) of 92.8% also beating by 30bps.

The broker believes reserves release aided the better-than-expected COR but it is still a welcome development and indicative of rising reserve strength. The broker is forecasting 92.3% COR in FY25 and 92.0% in FY26.

Overall, the insurer is well-positioned for profitable growth, even with slower rate of COR improvement. FY25 EPS forecast upgraded by 7% and marginal changes made for FY26.

Overweight. Target lifed to $25.00 from $24.80. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.39 Difference: $3.61
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.71, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes QBE Insurance's 1H25 adjusted net profit beat its forecast and the consensus due to asset sales, reserve releases, currency gains, lower CAT claims and strong investment returns.

However, the broker believes one-off factors supported the strong outcome and doesn't expect repeat CAT win or ongoing reserve releases in the 2H and beyond.

Importantly, the broker reckons the 92.5% combined operating ratio guidance may be too optimistic.

FY25 EPS forecast lifted by 7.8% to reflect the 1H result, but FY26-27 trimmed by -1.6% on slower premium growth and cautious margin outlook.

Hold. Target unchanged at $25.50.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $21.39 Difference: $4.11
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.71, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

QBE Insurance's 1H25 cash net profit of US$997m was 15% ahead of UBS and 18% higher than consensus on stronger investment income, gain from asset sale and lower tax rate. 

Gross written premium growth of 5.9% also beat the broker's forecast of 5.6%, despite slower premium rise of 2.1% vs 4.5% in 2H24. The insurer stated combined operating ratio (COR) is on track to meet FY25 guidance of 92.5%.

While softer 1H premium rate increases pointed to pressure on COR, the broker estimates COR to be less than 93% to FY27 on support from strong CAT budget, reserve adequacy, etc.

EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 7.5% but trimmed by -1.9% for FY26 on marginally higher COR profile.

Buy. Target cut to $25 from $26.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.39 Difference: $3.61
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.71, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TSO as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes Tesoro Gold's updated mineral resource estimate for the flagship Ternera prospect is 42% higher since the 2023 one at 51.2Mt for 1.82Moz gold.

Importantly, 62% of the resource or 1.12Moz is in the Indicated category, and the broker reckons this is a big step forward for the future development as a standalone operation.

Speculative Buy. Target rises to 15c from 11c.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.12
If TSO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TUA as Buy (1) -

Reacting to today's announcement by Tuas, Citi is positive on the plan to acquire Singapore-based telecommunications provider M1 from Keppel Corporation, a Singapore-based multinational conglomerate.

This is considered an attractive, EPS-accretive deal, strengthening Tuas' Singaporean footprint.

The -S$1.43bn purchase price will be funded by an $416m equity raising and S$1.1bn in debt, taking pro-forma net debt to circa 4 times EBITDA with scope to delever quickly, highlights the broker.

The acquisition lifts the combined entity’s Singapore market share to around 15% prepaid, 38% postpaid, and 16% broadband, observes Citi.

It will also add an established enterprise platform generating circa S$65m in revenue, 44% of the broker's FY25 forecast for Tuas.

Overall, the broker sees the transaction as highly synergistic, enhancing the company's position in both retail and enterprise segments.

Industry structure will consolidate to three mobile players, envisages Citi, potentially supporting more disciplined pricing and enabling Tuas to compete more strongly across value and premium segments.

Citi expects FY25 mobile growth of over 200k customers and highlights the strong momentum. Buy rating. Target $7.10.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $1.59
If TUA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources updated its 10-year production outlook, with around 8% more than anticipated product over 2025-2034, with the bulk of the increase between 2029-2034, a rise of 13% against prior indications, according to Macquarie.

The boost is being generated from a planned secondary crusher at Kiaka in 2028, and Sanbrado in 2029, plus Toega UG (Sanbrado), with updated production forecasts from management at 4.8moz for 2025-2034, which sits around 12% above consensus estimate and 8% above the broker's.

Macquarie has included capex growth of US$95m between 2028-2029 in its earnings forecasts, which underpins a 10-year EPS estimate uplift of 1% on average for 2025-2028, and around 20% uplift average over 2029-2034.

Target price rises to $3.40 from $3.30. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.73
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Citi views US competitor Sezzle’s June quarter gross merchandise value (GMV) growth of 74% year-on-year, up from 64% in March, and stable US credit quality as a positive read-through for Zip Co.

Sezzle’s focus on customer growth and lack of credit deterioration suggest to the broker supportive conditions for Zip’s US operations.

With Zip’s US total transaction value (TTV) currently growing at over 40%, Citi sees upside risk to consensus forecasts of 25% yoy growth in FY26, though rising marketing spend remains a consideration.

Unchanged Buy rating and $3.10 target.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources