Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ABB as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie is more downbeat on Aussie Broadband into the 1H26 results and lowers its target price by -9.8% to $4.60 from $5.30 previously, while retaining a Neutral rating. The broker lifts its FY26 EPS estimate by 0.6% and lowers FY27 by -1.1%.

Macquarie highlights its forecasts sit -6% and -13% below consensus for FY26/FY27, respectively.

Looking at both Superloop ((SLC)) and Aussie Broadband, the broker highlights residential/consumer as the main earnings driver, with uncertainty remaining around recent Telstra Group ((TLS)) price changes, noting Superloop has a more competitive pricing structure than Aussie Broadband.

The analyst forecasts 29k new residential adds for Aussie Broadband in 1H26 and 33k for Superloop.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $0.25
If ABB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.86, suggesting upside of 33.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

A second upgrade in target price for ASX by UBS this week, and the fourth this year. This time, the target is lifted to $57.60 from $56.90, and Neutral is maintained.

The latest trigger is a continuation of strong trading momentum into early 2H26, the broker highlights, with January showing outsized growth across cash equities and futures. It points to potential near-term upside to consensus revenue and EPS, in the broker's view.

Upside beyond 2H26 is, however, seen as limited given rising cost risks into FY27, potential clearing and settlement fee resets in FY28, and valuation pressure across global exchanges amid AI disruption concerns.

EPS forecast for 2H26 lifted for 2H26, with the broker's FY26 forecast now 2% ahead of consensus. FY27 EPS estimate raised by 0.8%.

Target price is $57.60

Current consensus price target is $55.58, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Morgans explains the investment narratives between BHP Group and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) have reversed, with BHP simplifying while Rio is considering M&A at the top of the cycle.

The broker lifts BHP's target to $48 and retains a Hold rating, noting both companies’ share prices reflect valuations of ongoing commodity prices at today’s levels for an extended period.

Note: this was written prior to the Glencore merger being called off.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $50.36 Difference: minus $2.36 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.58, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Beach Energy reported first half FY26 underlying earnings of $558m compared to Bell Potter's estimate of $531m. An interim fully franked dividend of 1cps was declared, with the broker expecting 3c as was the case last year -- the company referencing near-term capital requirements.

FY26 production and capex guidance maintained. Beach Energy  is in a production replacement cycle with respect to exploration and appraisal, Bell Potter notes.

Production growth should return in FY27 and capex ease, enabling positive free cash flow to support balance sheet deleveraging and ongoing dividends. Target rises to $1.15 from $1.10, Hold retained.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

Beach Energy reported a solid 1H26 earnings beat, with underlying EBITDA of $558m, beating consensus by 7%, Citi highlights.

Core net profit was ahead by 22%, driven by lower operating costs and higher other income, partly offset by higher tariffs and tolls.

Exploration spend was again taken below the line, while one-off Waitsia ramp-up costs were higher than guided, the broker explains. FY26 production and capex guidance remains unchanged.

A key disappointment was the dividend, which at 1c was below the broker's and consensus estimate of 2c, and the broker now expects a refreshed capital management framework in August.

FY26 EPS forecast trimmed by -5% and FY27 by -4% following revised treatment of tolls and tariffs. Citi retains a Sell rating and $1 target price.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie highlights a disappointing 1c dividend per share from Beach Energy at the 1H26 update, which was largely due to the negative free cash flow in the prior half year, with the 2H26 dividend forecast to lift to 2c per share.

The Waitsia JV is now aiming for a nameplate rate of 250TJ/d by the end of March, post reaching 165TJ/d as it brings on stream the next two compressors, the analyst explains, and this results in an uplift in capex estimates in the late 2020s.

Spend at Otway has continued to surprise to the upside, with implied gross spend of $500-$667m in FY28, which has led to a decline in Macquarie's Otway discounted cash flow valuation by -25%.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -33% for FY26 post result, as the analyst does not agree with Beach's treatment of non-recurring items. The FY27 EPS estimate is lowered by -1.3%.

Macquarie retains an Underperform rating while cutting the target price by -19% to 65c.

Current Price is $1.20. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes Beach Energy's 1H26 EBITDA beat its forecast by 21% and the consensus by 6%. Underlying net profit was 44% ahead of the broker's forecast and 23% higher than the consensus.

The disappointment was dividend of 1.0c , which was well below expectations and prior payout policy, and represented 10% of pre-growth free cash flow vs previous policy of 40-50%, the broker highlights.

Morgan Stanley maintains Underweight rating and $1.10 target. Industry View is In-Line.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Beach Energy declared an interim dividend short of market expectations, despite underlying first-half FY26 net profit coming in ahead of consensus estimates.

Ord Minnett does not consider it to be a high-quality performance given the 28% net profit beat was driven by items such as increased capitalisation of interest costs, higher earnings at the "other income" line, and reduced third-party purchase costs, rather than operational strength.

Beach described the disappointing dividend as conservative, with the possibility of making up the difference in the final dividend. It seems clear to Ord Minnett the company will be preferring M&A to increase its oil and gas reserves over paying dividends.

Target falls to $1.18 from $1.20, Hold retained.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS downgrades Beach Energy to Sell from Neutral as limited uplift in dividends or total shareholder returns is expected over the next 12-24 months due to prioritisation of capital toward M&A and exploration.

1H26 result was in line with the broker's forecast and beat consensus, driven by lower operating costs

While the company has ample liquidity and a broad pipeline of growth options, these are largely greenfield and capex-intensive, the broker explains. This means cash returns might be deferred further, and with major investment decisions complicated by uncertainty around Australia’s Domestic Gas Review until late 2026.

FY26-27 EPS forecasts lifted by 1-2%. The broker trimmed the target price to $1.05 from $1.15 on roll forward.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CKF as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Yum! Brands 4Q25 results pointed to continued momentum in KFC Australia and a slowing in Europe. The company's group LFL sales and operating profit beat consensus, alongside strong unit growth and improved margins.

The broker views the Australian performance as supportive of its forecasts for Collins Foods, the operator of KFC in Australia and parts of Europe. Europe's challenges are largely priced in, the broker highlights, with forecasts already assuming some moderation in 2H26.

UBS retains Buy rating and $13.10 target price for Collins.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $10.49 Difference: $2.61
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.06, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COF as Hold (3) -

Centuria Office REIT announced 1H26 funds from operations of $33.4m with a distribution of 5.1c, which met Morgans' expectations.

The analyst views distribution challenges ahead for the REIT given high gearing and existing distributions that are too excessive, notably when facing higher interest rates.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance for funds from operations at 11-11.5c and a distribution (dividend) of 10.1c, which equates to a 9.5% yield.

The REIT's portfolio is valued at $2bn across 19 CBD fringe office assets with an average age of 18 years. Morgans retains a Hold rating and lowers its target to $1.05 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

In a quick response, Citi notes Charter Hall Retail REIT announced robust 1H26 results with operating EPS up 3.4% y/y and better than the broker and consensus estimates. The distribution advanced 4.1% to 12.8c, again a slight beat, with quarterly payments started.

The analyst views this as positive and attractive for retail investors, while NTA rose 5.8% to $4.91.

Management confirmed upgraded FY26 guidance with an operating EPS of no less than 26.4c, which is basically in line with the analyst’s and consensus estimates.

Citi has a Buy rating and $4.50 target, noting the stock is trading at a -22% discount to NTA.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.66
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

UBS espouses praise for Charter Hall Retail REIT's capital management with margin savings of 40bps on the refinancing of $1.6bn of debt and FY27 hedging rising to 68% from 20% previously at the 1H26 results.

Operating earnings rose 3.4% y/y and came in -0.5% below the analyst's forecast due to marginally weaker net property income. The dividend of 12.8c per share was pre-announced.

Portfolio occupancy sat at 99.1%, up from 98.9% in June last year, with 3% like-for-like growth in net property income.

The analyst notes NTA rose 5.8% against June 2025. Management's recently upgraded guidance for 4% y/y growth remains unchanged.

UBS views the REIT's result as “solid” and FY27 earnings have been substantially de-risked, rating the stock as Neutral with a $4.20 target.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.36
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FND as No Rating (-1) -

Morgans notes Nova Global Opportunities Fund, with US$190m in AUM and backed by global investment manager Zinnia Groyo (US$1.2bn AUM), will invest up to $72m into Findi for a 51% stake in the company’s Indian business.

The investment will be in three tranches, with the first for $26m to be made on or before February 15, with the investment subject to final due diligence.

Management still expects to IPO TSI on the Indian Stock Exchange for $750-$950m, with the broker expressing surprise at the swiftness of pressures on Findi's balance sheet, which could be due to poor performance from recent acquisitions or depressed 1H26 earnings.

Findi's FY26 earnings (EBITDA) for 1H are now flagged by the company at around $10-$12m from $26m in FY25. Morgans has the stock under review.

Current Price is $0.90. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners - Cessation of coverage

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MGH as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Maas Group is to sell its Construction Materials (CM) division, pivoting the business to focus on digital, AI and electrification infrastructure. The pivot is cornerstoned by a $100m investment in Firmus, Morgans notes, further aligning and supporting the recent JLE contract win.

Based on the share price reaction, Maas is now reflecting a negative implied equity value for the Civil Construction and Hire (CC&H) division. Even excluding the pivot to electrification, the discount being applied to the Civil business is excessive, Morgans suggests.

The Maas investment thesis has pivoted with the sale of CM, Morgans notes. Maas now has $550m of net cash and is well positioned to expand further into digital, AI and electrification infrastructure – a vertical which offers 20%-plus return on capital projects.

Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate. Target falls to $5.10 from $5.45.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.99
If MGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Mineral Resources' December quarter update was strong, UBS highlights, with lithium production beating forecasts and leading to an upgrade in FY26 guidance.

The broker factored in the upgrade and also an increase in Wodgina production from sustained three-train operations from early 2027. Additionally, lithium price forecasts have been lifted by the broker, resulting in a material lift in earnings forecasts and cash flow.

De-gearing is expected to accelerate, with net cash forecast by FY29 from $3.5bn debt in FY26, supporting potential dividend reinstatement. FY26-28 EPS forecasts increased by 14-63%.

UBS re-iterates a Buy rating, with a lift in target price to $68.00 from $58.50.

Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $54.34 Difference: $13.66
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.33, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWS as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, News Corp reported a beat across revenue, earnings (EBITDA) and underlying net profit after tax against UBS and consensus forecasts.

Dow Jones revenue rose 7% y/y with news media generating flat revenue growth and book publishing revenue up 2%, with Dow Jones subscribers at 6.508m, slightly higher than the broker's forecast.

Digital real estate was considered the “standout”, boosted by a robust Move revenue growth result.

Management announced the expansion of the Bloomberg partnership to include AI rights, which is believed to be positive, and more partnerships are anticipated.

UBS has a Buy rating and $64.40 target.

Target price is $64.40 Current Price is $40.50 Difference: $23.9
If NWS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.45, suggesting upside of 49.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NXT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie points to Singtel and KKR’s acquisition of a 100% stake in ST Telemedia Global Data Centres (STT GDC) for an enterprise value (adjusted for committed capex and minorities) of $15.496bn, which is a premium of 35% to NextDC's valuation.

Comparing the valuations, the analyst highlights STT GDC sold at around 20x adjusted EV/contracted earnings (EBITDA) against NextDC trading at 14.8x currently.

STT GDC operates 50 data centres with 673MW of operating capacity across Europe, India, SE Asia and North Asia. Comparatively, it operates more in the cloud space and most customers are global hyperscalers and blue chip companies.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $22.30 target price. No change to the broker's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $22.30 Current Price is $13.22 Difference: $9.08
If NXT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.50, suggesting upside of 61.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNI as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans upgrades Pinnacle Investment Management to Buy from Accumulate and lowers its target price to $23.21 from $26.30.

The analyst points to 1H26 net profit after tax as a miss on consensus by -4%, but excluding one-off items it was basically in line and was, under the surface, a more robust result than the numbers infer.

Pinnacle announced it will acquire the remaining circa 79% of its UK affiliate, Pacific Asset Management, for -GBP212m or -$418m with a -GBP121m cash component and GBP91.8m in shares issued at $17.157.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts for FY26 by -7% on the softer than expected 1H26 result and EPS dilution from the equity issuance, while raising the FY27 EPS estimate by 8% for the earnings accretion from this acquisition.

Target price is $23.21 Current Price is $18.31 Difference: $4.9
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.23, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes NSW settlement activity slowed to 1.4% growth in January y/y from 14.2% in December and 4.4% in November.

Queensland activity rose 13.9% y/y in December, the latest data, against 6.8% growth in November, while transfer activity lifted by 16% in December versus 5.7% growth in November.

Refinancing activity rose 5.9% in December y/y versus annual growth of 4.1% in November.

Macquarie reiterates its Outperform rating on Pexa Group as a top pick, and an unchanged $19 target price.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $13.59 Difference: $5.41
If PXA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.36, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners - Cessation of coverage

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Citi notes REA Group reported a slight earnings (EBITDA) miss against forecast, with net profit after tax lower than anticipated due to higher tax.

Despite the miss, net profit after tax rose 9% y/y with buy-yield growth higher in 2Q and up 14% y/y compared to 1Q growth of 13% y/y, largely attributed to the geographic mix.

New homes growth was faster than commercial and guidance infers lower buy-yield growth in 2H relative to 2Q26 results.

The analyst now expects consensus estimates will be downgraded due to the softer listing outlook and higher tax rate. Management announced a share buyback, which is a positive, but Citi predicts the miss on earnings is likely to see shares underperform.

Later on the day, the analysts responded by stating today's sell off looks well overcooked.

Citi has a Buy rating and $222.70 target price.

Target price is $222.70 Current Price is $182.39 Difference: $40.31
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $244.39, suggesting upside of 43.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Buy (1) -

At first glance, UBS notes a slight miss from REA Group's 1H26 result due to media and Elara, with residential revenues a slight beat, up 7% y/y, with commercial and development revenues up 10%.

The analyst sees residential revenues as in line, while yields were also in line, up 13%, which is viewed positively. Management confirms a positive guide for operating jaws in FY26.

While the market may focus on cost control in the context of AI investment, UBS remains satisfied REA has a “flexible” cost base to achieve jaws guidance, even with Australian jaws expected to close slightly.

A $200m share buyback infers the possibility of further capital management. UBS rates the stock as Buy with a $248 target.

Target price is $248.00 Current Price is $182.39 Difference: $65.61
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $244.39, suggesting upside of 43.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Trim (4) -

Morgans explains the investment narratives between BHP Group ((RIO) and Rio Tinto have reversed, with BHP simplifying while Rio is considering M&A at the top of the cycle.

The broker lifts Rio Tinto's target to $142 and retains a Trim rating, noting both companies’ share prices reflect valuations of ongoing commodity prices at today’s levels for an extended period.

Note: this was written prior to the Glencore merger being called off.

Target price is $142.00 Current Price is $157.13 Difference: minus $15.13 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $142.00, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIG as Overweight (1) -

The main focus at Sigma Healthcare's 1H26 will be whether strong 1Q26 same-store sales (SSS) growth can be sustained amid softer 2Q industry conditions, Morgan Stanley highlights.

Outcomes, in the broker's view, range from a mid-single-digit share price rise if Chemist Warehouse SSS growth is greater than 12% and margins expand, to a mid-single-digit decline if SSS growth is less than 10% and margins disappoint.

The broker's base case is an in-line result with 12% SSS growth and 19% margins, implying a largely flat share price reaction.

Morgan Stanley retains Overweight rating and $3.30 target price. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.14
If SIG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie retains an upbeat view on Sky Network Television, expecting the company to continue delivering “attractive” dividend growth even after the stock’s robust re-rating over the last year.

The company is aiming for at least NZ$0.30 per share dividend in FY26, with the possibility of another rise in FY27 as savings from the new rugby contract and free cash flow from synergies from Discovery start to emerge.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -24% for FY26 and -17% for FY27 due to lower streaming revenue, higher costs, and Discovery, which is forecast to lose money over FY26/FY27.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and target of NZ$3.56.

Current Price is $2.77. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie is more upbeat on Superloop into the 1H26 results and, after the sizeable Origin Energy ((ORG)) promotions over Nov-Feb, the analyst lifts EPS forecasts for FY26 and FY27 by 1% and retains an Outperform rating and $3.30 target price.

Looking at both Superloop and Aussie Broadband ((ABB)), the broker highlights residential/consumer as the main earnings driver, with uncertainty remaining around recent Telstra Group ((TLS)) price changes, noting Superloop has a more competitive pricing structure than Aussie Broadband.

The analyst forecasts 29k new residential adds for Aussie Broadband in 1H26 and 33k for Superloop.

Macquarie prefers Superloop into the interim results due to its balance sheet and potential upside from Origin benefits.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.96
If SLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMI as Buy (1) -

Santana Minerals confirmed a 140-working-day FTA (Fast-Track Approval) assessment period for the Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project, with a decision due by 29 October 2026. Shaw and Partners highlights this is longer than initially expected but provides greater certainty.

Development consent is now anticipated in 2H2026, supported by extensive baseline studies and mitigation plans, with over -NZ$8m invested across environmental, social and technical assessments.

Shaw and Partners maintained a Buy rating and $2.15 target price.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $1.14
If SMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TRJ as Buy (1) -

Trajan Group has provided a trading update, now expecting first half revenue up 4% and normalised earnings down -37%. Despite the first half miss, Trajan has maintained the lower-end of FY26 guidance, implying a record in the second half, Ord Minnett notes.

Ord Minnett remains positive on Trajan’s longer-term opportunity and expects it to re-rate strongly if it can deliver FY26 earnings, which would end a multi-year downgrade cycle. With the company trading at an FY27 P/E of 13x, the broker maintains a Buy rating.

Target falls to $1.10 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.43
If TRJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

After re-assessing the investment thesis for Treasury Wine Estates, UBS downgraded to Sell from Neutral, despite significant share price declines.

The broker reckons structural industry headwinds persist, including weaker alcohol demand among younger consumers, wine underperformance versus RTDs (ready to drink) and spirits. Additionally, conditions are particularly challenging in China and the US.

Company-specific issues compound this, the broker explains, with elevated Penfolds grey-market inventory in China, mixed US execution and distributor risk, and elevated gearing limiting financial flexibility.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -1.2% and FY27 by -1.5% after factoring in FX, with the broker's forecast now -5% and -13% below consensus, respectively.

UBS trims the target to $4.75 from $5.25 on earnings downgrade and lower multiple of 11.3x from 11.5x.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.02, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees Woolworths Group's 1H26 result as a catalyst for the stock, noting supplier feedback suggests stronger 2Q26 sales versus Coles Group ((COL)). 

However, the market's focus is now shifting toward gross profit margin sustainability amid higher promotional intensity, the broker highlights.

While top-line risk appears limited, elevated price investment raises downside risk to margins, and to how much of the $400m cost-out program flows through to earnings, the broker explains. 

The broker's base case assumes a -30bps margin decline, likely missing consensus and leading to mid-single-digit downside risk to the share price.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and $31.30 target price. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $31.30 Current Price is $31.61 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.50, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources