Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett sees a valuation disconnect between current equity trading for copper companies on the ASX and recent transactions multiples. It's thought investors will benefit as the disconnect unwinds and the appetite for small cap exposures improves.

From among the broker's coverage, Sandfire Resources and Evolution Mining are preferred on a near-term view, while AIC Mines and Aurelia Metals represent the best opportunities in the medium-term.

The Speculative Buy rating and 70c target are retained for AIC Mines.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.35
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

Citi has explained its current rating on a2 Milk Co is based on the assumptions that it will be increasingly difficult for the company to achieve market share gains.

The broker is looking for evidence that product development is driving incremental demand, and that a2 Milk Co can secure additional market regulation (SAMR) slots to meet its revenue target, before taking a more positive view.

The Neutral rating and target price of $5.75 are retained.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $6.14 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABC as Hold (3) -

Adbri's binding scheme implementation deed with Irish group CRH is starting to look even more appealing to Ord Minnett, given the broker has just downgraded the stand alone fair value for Adbri by -5%.

The downgrade comes about after the announced termination of lime supplies to large customer Alcoa from April 2024, resulting in lower 2024 and 2025 lime volume forecasts by the broker.

The analyst doesn't expect the shortfall in volumes due to the termination can be recovered elsewhere.

The Hold rating and $3.20 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.07
If ABC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett sees a valuation disconnect between current equity trading for copper companies on the ASX and recent transactions multiples. It's thought investors will benefit as the disconnect unwinds and the appetite for small cap exposures improves.

From among the broker's coverage, Sandfire Resources and Evolution Mining are preferred on a near-term view, while AIC Mines and Aurelia Metals represent the best opportunities in the medium-term.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged for Aurelia Metals. Target 14c.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APM as Equal-weight (3) -

Further North American contract wins helps de-risk expectations for APM Human Services International, and supports Morgan Stanley's re-acceleration thesis for FY25-26.

Building on prior program wins, the company has secured a five-year contract with Ontario Employment Services, while several Job Corps and Workforce contracts were also won in the US.

Equal-weight rating. Target $1.40. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If APM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APM as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett increases its revenue forecasts for APM Human Services International by 5% over a 10-year period after new employment service contract wins in North America (totaling $1bn over five years) were announced.

Unfortunately, the North American market largely operates on lower-margin cost-plus and cost-reimbursement models, resulting in a -50bps reduction to the broker's forecast gross margin to 29%.

This lower margin offsets the positive valuation impact from the contract wins, and Ord Minnett's $2 target and Accumulate rating are maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.32
If APM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BKW as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter has described a 'robust' first half from Brickworks, despite the company reporting a -$23.4m loss. This was partly due to the sale of the M7 property hub, which incurred a -$16.3m loss at the earnings line but also saw net debt reduce by -$27m. 

As per the broker, the remaining 130 square kilometres of the Oakdale West development is set to be completed in the second half, potentially adding $30m to rents over the next 12-24 months, while recent approvals linked to Oakdale West represent a key milestone.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price increases to $29.00 from $27.80.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $28.31 Difference: $0.69
If BKW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Brickworks has reported a first half loss of -$37m, a beat to Citi's expectations with higher than expected earnings in building products and investments, coupled with lower tax, able to offset weaker earnings in property.

The company is anticipating significant rental income growth in its property business is ahead, and considers Australia to be on the cusp of a building boom. 

The Buy rating and target price of $35.00 are retained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $28.31 Difference: $6.69
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

Brickworks reported a 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) loss of -$40m, with Building Products Australia delivering better earnings (EBIT) margins than Macquarie expected on price and efficiency gains.

The Property loss was a slight miss and pressures in this division remain, notes the analyst.

The broker's target rises to $27.30 from $25.15 after slightly increasing margin assumptions for Building Products on both price and efficiency gains, offset by higher group interest costs.

The target also increased as Macquarie marked-to-market for the stake in WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)) and after the analyst assigned a higher Property net asset value (NAV). The Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $27.30 Current Price is $28.31 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BKW as Hold (3) -

Following Brickworks' 1H result, Morgans view on the company's outlook is relatively unchanged including relative softness in the short-to medium-term, resulting in management moving towards cash flow generation away from investment.

As expected by the broker, the result was heavily impacted by negative revaluations for the industrial portfolio, with underlying earnings (EBITDA) falling by -107%. Earnings excluding revaluations and property sales fell by -9%, in line with the analyst's forecast.

Longer-term, management believes Australia is on the verge of a property boom due to record immigration levels and population growth.

The target rises to $30 from $25.30 on a change of the broker's valuation methodology, an increase in property earnings forecasts, and a higher assumed multiple for Building Products. Hold.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.31 Difference: $1.69
If BKW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BKW as Hold (3) -

While 1H earnings (EBIT) for Brickworks declined across three of its four operating segments, Ord Minnett sees longer-term upside, particularly via the Property segment due to demand for high-quality Industrial property.

The Property segment should also benefit from further increases in rental income in the medium term, points out the broker.

Property, Building Products Australia and Investments all reported lower earnings contributions for the half, while Building Products North America registered a slight earnings improvement, though off a low base, qualify the analysts.

The target rises to $29 from $27 and the Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $28.31 Difference: $0.69
If BKW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Commenting at the 1H results presentation, management at Brickworks predicted the Australian Building Products "air pocket" will last until the start of 2025, before migration and an undersupply of housing leads to a new demand cycle.

The performance of most divisions fell short of expectations held by UBS, including an around -10-15% revenue miss in Building Products, albeit largely offset by stronger-than-expected margins. Negative Property revaluations were in line with the broker's forecast.

Management noted the backlog in Building Products is now largely exhausted, and sales activity will soften over the remainder of FY24.

The target falls to $32.50 from $33 and the Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $28.31 Difference: $4.19
If BKW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.47, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CLV as Neutral (3) -

The UBS target for Clover falls to 60c from 85c due to material medium-term EPS forecast downgrades, partially offset by less material long-term cuts as the broker incorporates a sales and margin recovery over time.

These changes by the analyst follow 1H results and a 2H outlook showing softer-than-expected customer reordering post sales made via China's Singles Day, reflecting soft demand. 

There were also appreciably softer gross margins, down -4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased price competition in the market and customer mix impacts, explains the broker.

The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.02
If CLV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CU6 as Buy (1) -

Astra Zeneca will acquire Fusion Pharmaceuticals for US$2.4bn, in a deal Bell Potter describes as further validation for radiopharmaceuticals.

The broker points out this is the third transaction within the segment in recent months involving a top tier pharma, and infers that interest among pharma groups looking for radiopharmaceutical assets remains at a 'fever pitch'.

There are clear implications for the implied valuation of Clarity Pharmaceuticals, according to Bell Potter. The broker considers Fusion Pharmaceuticals and Clarity Pharmaceuticals to be at a similar development stage, with both having produced encouraging case study data.

The Buy rating and target price of $3.90 are retained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.95
If CU6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett sees a valuation disconnect between current equity trading for copper companies on the ASX and recent transactions multiples. It's thought investors will benefit as the disconnect unwinds and the appetite for small cap exposures improves.

From among the broker's coverage, Sandfire Resources and Evolution Mining are preferred on a near-term view, while AIC Mines and Aurelia Metals represent the best opportunities in the medium-term.

The Accumulate rating and $3.40 target are retained for Evolution Mining.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Recent drilling intersections by FireFly Metals at the Footwall Zone at Green Bay validate historical drilling and demonstrate huge potential to grow the resource, suggests Shaw and Partners.

The Footwall Zone is a distinct style of copper mineralisation from the high-grade copper-gold massive sulphide zone, explain the analysts.

The Buy, High Risk rating is retained for FireFly Metals, which was represented on the broker's top ten research ideas for 2024. The target price of $1.20 is retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.485
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FSF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses a "strong" 1H result for Fonterra Shareholders Fund with earnings (EBIT) from continuing operations (excluding the DPA Brazil divestment impact) of $986m, up 14% on the previous corresponding period.

On a continuing operations basis, operating earnings were down modestly, after adjusting for impairments, offset by improvement in net finance costs and tax, explains the analyst.

Management's outlook commentary implies to Macquarie EPS of 7-22cps over the 2H.

Neutral rating. The target rises to NZ$3.61 from NZ$3.52 after the broker incorporates higher near-term earnings, partially offset by an increase in the risk-free rate.

Current Price is $3.33. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GMD as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Genesis Minerals has upgraded FY24 production guidance to 130-140koz from 120-130koz, as part of a five-year strategic plan.

Management has also recut resources and reserves estimates, notes Shaw and Partners, following the acquisition of St Barbara, Dacian and the Bruno-Lewis and Raeside gold projects from Kin Mining ((KIN)) in 2023.

The revised estimates include maiden estimates for Gwalia and Tower Hill, observes the broker.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $2.20 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.28
If GMD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Sell (5) -

In anticipation of 1H results by Premier Investments on March 26, UBS forecasts EBIT (pre AASB16) of $227m, and notes consensus is currently sitting at $235m. A 65cps dividend is expected by the analyst, higher than the 56cps forecast by consensus.

The Sell rating is retained and the target price increased to $27 from $24 after the broker increases FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts by 6.7% and 5.6%, respectively.

The increased forecasts are due to greater store growth and like-for-like sales growth estimates, a lower CODB/Sales ratio, and updated valuations for Investments, explains UBS.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $30.40 Difference: minus $3.4 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.90, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett sees a valuation disconnect between current equity trading for copper companies on the ASX and recent transactions multiples. It's thought investors will benefit as the disconnect unwinds and the appetite for small cap exposures improves.

From among the broker's coverage, Sandfire Resources and Evolution Mining are preferred on a near-term view, while AIC Mines and Aurelia Metals represent the best opportunities in the medium-term.

The Accumulate rating and $7.50 target are retained for Sandfire Resources.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.69 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.60, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

Sigma Healthcare is preparing to fulfill its $2bn per year contract with Chemist Warehouse, with the company building inventory over May and June ahead of the contract start date in the new financial year.

Citi notes fulfillment of the contract will require sizeable working capital from Sigma Healthcare, with the company expecting to invest -$150m into the partnership.

While Sigma Healthcare had been targeting a completion of the merger in the second half of 2024, a detailed review being undertaken by the ACCC has added to difficulties in determining a timeline.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.30 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.07
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie considers FY23 results by Sigma Healthcare were largely a sideshow when set against the ongoing reverse takeover by Chemist Warehouse Group.

Profit of $4.7m on $3.3bn of sales is indicative of tight margins in the legacy business, suggests the analyst. Management reaffirmed its medium-term earnings (EBIT) margin target of 1.5-2.5% on a standalone basis for the Sigma business.

The Chemist Warehouse business had a very strong first half, in the broker's opinion, with earnings of $324m and profit of $360m due to a one-off tax benefit.

The target rises to 90c form 88c and the Underperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIG as Equal-weight (3) -

Sigma Healthcare's FY24 underlying earnings (EBIT) were in line with the top end of management's guidance, and Morgan Stanley now has greater confidence the company's long-term earnings margin target of 1.5-2.5% will be met.

The broker increases its FY25 and FY26 profit forecasts by 55% and 37%, respectively, after raising the assumed long-term earnings margin and lowering interest expense estimates following the capital raise.

Management continues to believe the merger with Chemist Warehouse Group will complete in the 2H of FY25.

The target rises to $1.22 from 94c. Equal-weight rating with an In-Line sector view.

Target price is $1.22 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIG as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Excluding merger-related costs of -$8.2m, Sigma Healthcare's FY24 result (January year-end) revealed earnings (EBIT) at the top end of the guidance range, observes Morgans.

The broker doesn't anticipate full completion of the merger transaction until the end of 2024/beginning of 2025 and incorporates Chemist Warehouse Group forecasts from January 31, 2025. After a roll-forward of the financial model, the target rises to $1.14 from $1.07.

The broker's rating is downgraded to Hold from Add.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SIG as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Shaw and Partners assesses "solid" FY24 results for Sigma Healthcare with revenue beating the broker's forecast by 5.3%.

The broker attributes a -9.2% revenue fall, versus the previous corresponding period, to reduced rapid antigen test (RAT) sales and the sale of the Hospitals business, partially offset by wholesale revenue growth.

The valuation for Sigma is full, and suggests to the analyst the market is treating ACCC approval for the Chemist Warehouse Group transaction as a foregone conclusion. The rating is downgraded to Sell from Hold.

The target rises to $1.00 from 90c, well below the current share price, highlights Shaw and Partners.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TNE as Lighten (4) -

While Ord Minnett sings the praises of TechnologyOne on multiple fronts, the broker believes the market is overestimating management's ability to maintain revenue growth levels, which currently sit at historical highs.

There is caution around market saturation, given the broker perceives the company is reliant on growth from existing customers. Revenue from this source represented over 90% of total revenue in FY23, up from less than 70% in 2018.

By way of example, the company's products for the largest vertical, local government, are currently used by councils representing nearly 75% of A&NZ residents, points out the analyst.

Ord Minnett retains its Lighten rating on valuation. The $14 target is also unchanged.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $16.85 Difference: minus $2.85 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.07, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VVA as Buy (1) -

Citi has issued updates to its model on Viva Leisure, adjusting capital expenditure assumptions given an accelerated roll out.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.42 from $2.74.

Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.96
If VVA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Webjet has provided more insight into its intended pathway to achieving its long term $10bn total transaction value target, surprising Citi with the level of detail provided. 

Among key takeaways, Citi notes the company will focus on the Asia Pacific and US regions for new customer wins. Webjet also sees material opportunity in technology investment for its ability to convert traffic to transactions.

Earnings forecasts are lifted 6-7% through to FY26.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.90 from $7.90.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $8.69 Difference: $1.21
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WEB as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

At Webjet's investor day, management set a FY25 target for total transaction value (TTV) of circa $5bn, and $10bn for FY30, while earnings (EBITDA) margins are expected to stay around 50%.

These targets imply to Macquarie an around 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY25-30 and earnings margins
remaining stable - they were 49.5% in FY23.

Management reaffirmed FY24 guidance for underlying earnings and TTV.

As the share price is approaching the broker's $8.88 target, up from $8.37, the rating falls to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $8.69 Difference: $0.19
If WEB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley came away from Webjet's investor day with a similar view of the company's long-term earnings power, but is now more constructive on the short-term outlook.

An ongoing rebound in leisure travel and Webjet's market share were implied by several targets that management expects to achieve by FY30, which were all ahead of the analyst's forecasts.

The broker anticipates stronger total transaction value (TTV) growth and lower, more competitive take-rates will provide a net tailwind for near-term earnings.

Equal-weight rating. Target $7.45. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $8.69 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WEB as Add (1) -

The key piece of information Morgans extracted from Webjet's WebBeds Strategy Day was management's confidence in achieving $10bn (organically) of total transaction value (TTV) by FY30.

The company expects to hit this target while delivering an earnings (EBITDA) margin of 50% with strong cash flow conversion of 90-110%, observe the analysts.

While the target rises to $10.33 from $8.55 on slight upgrades to forecasts, Morgans expects far greater upgrades by consensus. The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $10.33 Current Price is $8.69 Difference: $1.64
If WEB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's industry analysis continues to indicate Webjet's position within the B2B space has improved considerably over
recent years, a view confirmed by management commentary during yesterday's investor day.

Management expects the B2B Division will deliver $10bn of total transaction value (TTV) by FY30, two years earlier than the broker's original forecast.

In setting this target, management is relying upon macroeconomic growth in Leisure Travel (predicted to grow at double GDP), new customer wins and increasing conversion, observes the analyst.

The target rises to $10.18 from $9.84 due to a roll-forward of Ord Minnett's valuation model, and the Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $10.18 Current Price is $8.69 Difference: $1.49
If WEB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WEB as Buy (1) -

At the WebBeds strategy day, Webjet's management provided a pathway to $10bn of total transaction value (TTV) by FY30.

Shaw and Partners believes management's expected TTV compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% between FY25-FY30 is conservative, and remains constructive on the B2B opportunity for WebBeds.

The broker notes FY25 guidance for WebBeds to achieve $5bn of TTV was 10% above the consensus forecast.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target rises to $9.30 from $8.50, despite no changes to FY24 forecasts, as Shaw and Partners incorporates management's $10bn target by FY30.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.69 Difference: $0.61
If WEB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources