Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates AGL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse has reviewed FY18 results and finds the realised wholesale price is higher than previously believed. The broker has modelled a more substantial decline in FY20 and beyond.

In the absence of earnings growth the focus is on cash flow and what level of capital return can be supported. In this regard AGL is currently in a strong position. Credit Suisse believes the company will commence a $500m buyback in FY19 which will mean gearing returns to around 25%.

The broker's rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral as apparent value is far less compelling now. Target is reduced to $17.70 from $20.60.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $19.60 Difference: minus $1.9 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.18, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPH as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie updates forecasts to reflect FY19 guidance. Net profit guidance is now NZ$205-210m, lower than the NZ$215m provided at the AGM, with the change reflecting increased legal costs to defend patent infringement action brought by ResMed ((RMD)).

Macquarie notes the stock is trading at a 20% premium to its long-run forward PE relative to ResMed and well above valuation. Target rises to NZ$12.15 from NZ$12.00. Underperform maintained.

Current Price is $13.46. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

The company has surprised with an upgrade to FY18 guidance albeit a very poor east coast crop is expected to keep expectations in check for FY19. As a result Credit Suisse downgrades FY19 estimates marginally. Guidance for FY18 has moved to $255-270m with net profit at $43m.

Credit Suisse observes the integration of marketing and logistics should result in network capacity reducing to a level that is more in line with trading capability, increasing overall utilisation. The second site in Canada has been commissioned and should make a more meaningful contribution in FY19. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $9.09 from $8.78.

Target price is $9.09 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $1.16
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates GNC as Buy (1) -

The company has improved FY18 guidance, which Deutsche Bank believes provides evidence of efficiency and integration benefits. Nevertheless, the company continues to face a poor FY19 crop on Australia's east coast, although this is considered largely priced into the stock.

Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating, with the stock trading at a -13% discount to revised valuation. Target is $9.20.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $1.27
If GNC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Neutral (3) -

Graincorp has improved operating earnings guidance to $255-270m. Guidance has been upgraded because of the contribution from the new Pocatello plant and high levels of utilisation as well as tailwinds in the craft beer market.

Meanwhile, the FY19 outlook has deteriorated substantially since the May results because of large areas of NSW and southern Queensland in severe drought. Macquarie notes the company's footprint is skewed to the areas where drought is at its worst.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $8.12 from $8.29. Macquarie looks favourably on the growing contribution from non-grains earnings because it is likely to reduce volatility in the long run.

Target price is $8.12 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $0.19
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Hold (3) -

As the drought continues in the east, Graincorp has upgraded FY18 guidance due to a better than expected year for marketing and malt (the latter attributed to the popularity of craft beer, particularly in the US). The broker has responded by lifting FY18 forecasts.

But the broker has cut FY19 forecasts given an expectation the severity of the drought will likely see Graincorp post its worst year in grains since FY07. The next opportunity to benefit from materially improved conditions may not be until FY21, the meteorologist, sorry, broker suggests (while admitting a simple assumption of a return to normal conditions, that could prove wrong).

Target falls to $7.22 from $7.50, Hold retained.

Target price is $7.22 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Neutral (3) -

The company has surprised with an upgrade to FY18 guidance. FY18 guidance is for $255-270m in operating earnings, up from $240-265m previously. The upgrade is the result of strong craft beer demand in North America and a full contribution from the new Pocatello plant in the second half.

What was less surprising was the reiteration of severe drought conditions on Australia's east coast and, therefore, UBS makes a large reduction to FY19 earnings estimates as forecast receivables are 3mt, versus a normal crop of around 8mt.

The broker retains a Neutral rating on valuation grounds. Target is raised to $8.70 from $8.30.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $0.77
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

FY18 results were below UBS forecasts. The only negative news centred on the recurrence of water reliability issues. There are a number of initiatives to improve this so the broker believes there is nothing that fundamentally alters the value of the company's assets.

The assets are strategic and the key product is experiencing robust demand amid the growth in electric vehicles. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.20 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $1.31
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes it may be a challenge for National Australia Bank to reach APRA's 10.5% CET1 ratio target without capital management initiatives. The broker's base case assumes a dividend reduction in 2019 and an additional dividend reinvestment plan.

Major banks are required to meet the benchmark by January 1, 2020. Morgan Stanley forecasts a -12% cut to the dividend in 2019 and assumes a discount is offered on the dividend reinvestment plan.

Underweight weighting retained. Industry view: In-line. Price target is $26.40.

Target price is $26.40 Current Price is $27.87 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.19, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Argentina has established a temporary foreign trade export duty aimed at reducing its fiscal deficit. Orocobre expects this will impact both its Olaroz and Borax Argentina businesses. At current exchange rates it equates to an 8% duty.

There are cost benefits because of the devaluation of the Argentine peso, as 45% of Olaroz costs are denominated in peso.Deutsche Bank does not adjust costs, given Orocobre has not provided guidance.

Applying the duty leads to a -2.5% fall in valuation. FY19 net profit estimates fall -19% and FY20 -25%. Target is reduced to $6.90 from $7.00. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $3.38
If ORE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 65.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse reduces its modelling for forward electricity prices, reducing energy market earnings estimates by -3.4% for FY20 and -9.6% for FY21. The broker finds no clear relative reason for a more positive position on Origin Energy versus AGL Energy ((AGL)).

The broker's preference for this stock is instead driven by the strong forecast cash flow from APLNG. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.70 from $9.70.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $0.1
If ORG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.27, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Despite a strong performance Morgan Stanley envisages further upside in ResMed because of favourable exposure to a weaker Australian dollar and a reasonable relative valuation to Australian growth and US medical technology peers.

The company also has a more resilient long-term gross margin under the US competitive bidding proposals as well as an underutilised balance sheet.

Overweight rating. Target is raised to US$125 from US$112. Industry view: In Line.

Current Price is $15.48. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $14.28, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SGP as Buy (1) -

The company will initiate a $350m on-market share buyback program, to be funded via existing facilities. Deutsche Bank forecasts gearing to rise to 24.4% from 22.2% should management enact the full program.

Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating and $4.73 target.

Target price is $4.73 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $0.51
If SGP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the share price will rise relative to the industry because of the company's surprise announcement of a two-year $350m buyback program.

The broker calculates a buyback could add up to 1.8% to free funds from operations on a full year basis. The buyback also signals confidence that the significant retail devaluation seen in FY18 is less likely to be repeated, the broker suggests.

Overweight rating, Cautious industry view and $4.65 target maintained.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $0.43
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Sell (5) -

Stockland has announced a buyback of $350m, which surprised UBS. The broker expects this buyback to be dependent on achieving non-core assets sales and partnering with capital on retail assets and/or re-negotiating the lending covenant of 45% to increase its buffer in downside scenario.

The broker retains a Sell rating because of the deteriorating growth profile from FY20 onwards. UBS believes embedded residential margins will not be enough to offset the decline in volumes. Target is $4.08.

Target price is $4.08 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

FY19 earnings guidance was re-affirmed at $75m although the first half result was a little weaker than Citi expected. The broker notes industry conditions remain challenging and all wholesalers are intent on improving efficiency as external conditions are unlikely to change in the near term.

Sigma is also facing the additional challenge of losing its major customer and around 40% of its revenue. Citi has learned there is some potential for the $700m OTC portion of the Chemist Warehouse contract to move to DHL earlier than in June 2019.

This would affect FY20 earnings estimates but the extent is unclear at this stage. Neutral/High Risk rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.54 from $0.55.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.01
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SIG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

First half results were weaker than Credit Suisse expected. Management continues to expect underlying EBIT of $75m in FY19 before it falls to $40-50m in FY20 as a result of losing the Chemist Warehouse contract. FY19 guidance implies a strong second half skew of 54%.

Credit Suisse considers the short term outlook challenging. The company has appointed Accenture to execute restructuring initiatives but future business strategies remain unclear. The broker considers any restructuring would involve substantial costs and weigh on reported earnings.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $0.48 from $0.52.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SIG as Sell (5) -

First half revenue was slightly weaker than expected. The main reasons were soft operating margins and higher costs for interest. The company has reiterated FY19 underlying EBIT guidance of $75m, which suggests to UBS that Sigma must now deliver a 45/55% earnings skew half on half to achieve this.

Cost reductions are expected to do the heavy lifting but the broker still envisages risks because of ongoing top-line pressures. Sell rating and $0.45 target maintained.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Add (1) -

Transurban is undertaking a rights issue to fund the purchase of its 25.5% stake in WestConnex. The broker recommends shareholders take up the offer given a forecast 17% total shareholder return. The broker nevertheless reduces its target to $12.03 from $12.60 on dilution, and on a higher purchase price than forecast.

The broker retains Add but recommends those looking to buy shares wait for the retail offer period.

Target price is $12.03 Current Price is $11.29 Difference: $0.74
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.43, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Underperform (5) -

Telstra has downgraded FY19 guidance because of assumptions of a slower NBN roll-out. From a valuation perspective Macquarie considers the impact small and immaterial. Telstra's income guidance is reduced by around -$300m primarily because of lower one-off receipts. Operating earnings guidance is reduced by -$100m.

While Telstra will receive some of its payments later, this is offset, in the broker's view, by being able to sweat its high-margin copper assets and retain wholesale customers for longer. Macquarie maintains an Underperform rating as the company continues to face challenges across its core operating segments. Target is $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Add (1) -

The NBN released a revised business plan last month, updating on timing following the rollout delay and noting the cost thereof, which sparked selling Telstra. Yesterday, Telstra responded with minor changes to guidance, downgrading earnings by -1% and suggesting no change to cash flow (important for dividends), the broker reports.

This leads to a tweak of forecast but the impact is immaterial, the broker points out, hence no change to Add and $3.50 target.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.4
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett updates estimates following the release of the NBN corporate plan. Telstra has guided to lower revenue in FY19 because of reduced one-off subscriber payments projected by the NBN.

Ord Minnett lowers its one-off NBN payment amount by -$200m to $1.7bn in FY19. The decline is offset by an increase in both revenue and operating earnings in FY20 and FY21 of $100m and $300m respectively. Accumulate rating and $3.50 target maintained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.4
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

Telstra has revised guidance downwards to account for timing changes in the new NBN corporate plan. The new plan factors in a slightly lower FY19 roll-out than Telstra had anticipated. Relative to the guidance provided at the last result earnings are reduced by -$100m.

UBS had already factored these changes into its forecasts and estimates are unchanged. The broker continues to envisage potential for headline FY20 upgrades and underlying FY20 downgrades to earnings per share.

Neutral rating and $3 target maintained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Westpac has admitted a breach of responsible lending practices and will pay a $35m penalty, entering a settlement agreement with ASIC. Citi suggests these practices were widely used across the industry at the time and indicate other lenders may be at risk.

The main issue is that any future impairments or hardship for affected borrowers could lead to redress, such as repayment of interest and fees, amounts for economic loss or even declaring the contract null and void.

The upcoming interim report from the Hayne Royal Commission is likely to have more to say on the matter, Citi suspects. Neutral and $31 target retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $27.74 Difference: $3.26
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.60, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates XRO as Resume Coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett resumes coverage on Xero with a Hold rating and $42 target. The broker is positive on the company's business model and strategy but, given the stock is trading above the target, along with many of its peers in this high-growth segment, a Hold rating is considered appropriate.

The company achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time in FY18 and Ord Minnett expects cash flow to break even in FY19 and also a maiden net profit.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $45.50 Difference: minus $3.5 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.09, suggesting downside of -9.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources