Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts are pleasantly surprised by Aussie Broadband's acquisition of AGL Energy's ((AGL)) telco customers given the latter was locked in an exclusive contract with Superloop ((SLC)) until 2028 (five years from 2023).

The broker believes the deal is 5%-7% EPS accretive.

Target $6.15. Buy.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $1.62
If ABB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.86, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the share prices of infrastructure stocks under coverage have lagged amid rising Australian bond yields, but analysis shows defensiveness improves as correlations weaken at higher yield levels.

Overall, the broker believes much of the bond yield impact has already been priced in, improving entry points across the sector.

Passenger throughput recovery remains the key catalyst for Auckland International Airport, the analysts suggest, with challenges returning to pre-covid levels weighing on earnings and returns.

Until clearer evidence of a sustained passenger volume recovery emerges, caution is warranted, according to Citi.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises its target to $7.31 from $7.13. 

Target price is $7.31 Current Price is $7.27 Difference: $0.04
If AIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.31, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights ALS Ltd's strong share price run alongside the current exploration upcycle, seeing volume growth as the immediate focus with pricing upside also emerging.

Rising capacity utilisation is expected to support higher Geochemistry pricing from 2026, with benefits becoming more meaningful into FY27.

Industry feedback suggests to Citi stretched turnaround times and resilient exploration activity, the analysts note, allowing potential pricing above headline guidance.

Momentum is viewed as intact despite currency headwinds, with upside risks to Commodities growth. Target rises to $27.30 from $23.80. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $27.30 Current Price is $24.15 Difference: $3.15
If ALQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.09, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi notes the share prices of infrastructure stocks under coverage have lagged amid rising Australian bond yields, but analysis shows defensiveness improves as correlations weaken at higher yield levels.

Overall, the broker believes much of the bond yield impact has already been priced in, improving entry points across the sector.

The exception is Atlas Arteria, due to political risk in France and unfavourable FX dynamics weighing on cash flow growth, the analysts explain, limiting DPS upside despite an attractive yield.

Infrastructure defensiveness is acknowledged but risks temper the broker's overall enthusiasm for Atlas. The target is lowered to $4.80 from $5.70 and the rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: $0.1
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AOV as Outperform (1) -

Amotiv delivered a "solid" 1H26 result, beating Macquarie's expectations despite softer new vehicle sales trends weighing on market sentiment.

The broker highlights a resilient Powertrain and Undercar (PTU) performance, and improving Light Parts & Electrical (LPE) outcomes supported by Amotiv Unified. Pressure in 4WD margins is expected to ease in the second half.

FY26 guidance is unchanged at around $195m EBITA. The analyst points to multiple tailwinds emerging into FY27 including offshore growth, FX support and cost-out benefits.

With valuation seen as attractive below 9x FY27 PE, confidence in the medium-term outlook remains intact. Target rises to $11.90 from $11.66. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $8.12 Difference: $3.78
If AOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.25, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AOV as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

In the wake of interim results for Amotiv, Morgans lowers its target to $9.15 from $11.25 and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy, even though expectations were met and modest sales and earnings growth were achieved, and despite an undemanding valuation. 

FY26 EBITA guidance was also reaffirmed.

The problem for the analyst relates to mixed segment outcomes. Resilient Powertrain and Undercar (PTU) and Light Parts & Electrical (LPE) performances were supported by cost savings, but offset by weaker 4WD volumes and margin pressure, explains the broker.

Limited near-term catalysts are evident to Morgans, with offshore investments expected to take time to translate into earnings.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $8.12 Difference: $1.03
If AOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.25, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AOV as Buy (1) -

UBS says Amotiv delivered “credible” 1H26 results against a challenging consumer backdrop, with revenue up 3% y/y, a 4% beat, and NPAT up 1% y/y, beating by 1%.

Margins remained under pressure from inflation, particularly in 4WD, partly offset by cost controls, while the January trading update showed A&NZ 4WD sales ex BYD down -7%, missing management expectations.

UBS notes Australian resellers and original equipment remain soft, wear and repair is stable, and momentum continues across the US and Europe.

Management guided to FY26 group revenue growth, with UBS forecasting 3.6% and underlying EBITDA of around $195m, in line with broker and consensus expectations.

UBS retains a Buy rating and lifts its target price to $11.40 from $11.00, with EPS forecasts largely unchanged.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $8.12 Difference: $3.28
If AOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.25, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AUB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades AUB Group to Buy from Neutral with its $35 target price unchanged, following recent concerns around AI disruption across insurance brokers.

The broker highlights new AI driven tools such as Tuio and Insurify, which provide tailored quotes and facilitate direct purchases, increasing the risk of broker disintermediation.

UBS sees AI led direct distribution as a longer term risk but does not expect meaningful disruption in the Australian market over the medium term.

For insurers, underwriting is not considered at risk, with UBS questioning whether AI can materially reshape distribution dynamics or monetise effectively in Australia given limited supply chain infrastructure.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $25.95 Difference: $9.05
If AUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.42, suggesting upside of 48.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Downgrade to Trim from Hold (4) -

Beach Energy’s 1H26 result was hard to analyse, Morgans relates, with aggressive accounting treatments inflating underlying earnings and masking weaker operational reality.

The broker points to the sharp dividend cut as a clearer signal, implying capital conservation and concerns around the forward free cash flow (FCF) profile.

Waitsia LNG swap arrangements represent a material headwind, the analyst notes, with future production delivered without revenue recognition weighing on cash flow and earnings.

With declining reserves and limited visibility on cash generation, valuation risk is seen to the downside until an acquisition emerges. 

Morgans lowers its target for Beach Energy to $1.09 from $1.22 and downgrades to Trim from Hold

Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -

Disruption risk from AI is the key investor debate for global Internet stocks right now, including CAR Group. Morgan Stanley thinks the strategic value of CAR's dealer software platform – AutoGate – is underappreciated.

AutoGate keeps dealers in the CAR ecosystem and creates a lot of proprietary data. As investors debate the right terminal multiple for Internet stocks, Morgan Stanley sees intrinsic value at these levels.

Target falls to $38 from $43, Overweight retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $27.19 Difference: $10.81
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.54, suggesting upside of 36.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans assesses CAR Group delivered a strong interim result broadly in line with consensus expectations, underpinned by double-digit growth across key offshore markets and a solid Australian performance.

The broker highlights resilient domestic advertising trends and strong offshore execution, with LatAm and Asia benefiting from product expansion and higher dealer engagement.

Ongoing investment in AI and product capabilities supports long-term growth, the analyst suggests, despite some margin pressure from brand and platform spending. A new global AI hub in Brazil is being established to develop core agentic capabilities.

With the stock trading near 22x FY27 earnings, valuation is seen as attractive given the group's growth profile. The target price eases to $35.20 from $35.50, but Morgans upgrades to Buy from Accumulate on valuation.

Target price is $35.20 Current Price is $27.19 Difference: $8.01
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.54, suggesting upside of 36.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAR as Buy (1) -

CAR Group’s 1H26 result met Ord Minnett's expectations, with FY26 guidance reaffirmed for double-digit revenue and earnings growth on a constant-currency basis.

The broker is encouraged by management’s reinvestment of AI-driven savings into further capability development within existing capex plans.

Concerns around Trader Interactive (TI) in the US are seen as overdone, with earlier price increases and media partnerships expected to lift second-half revenue growth.

Currency impacts and a higher assumed risk-free rate drive forecast earnings downgrades but the investment case remains intact, according to Ord Minnett. Buy rating and target falls to $35 from $41 

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $27.19 Difference: $7.81
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.54, suggesting upside of 36.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Today's interim result by CommBank beat Citi's expectations on higher net interest income (NII) and much better-than-forecast bad debt charges. Cash earnings of $5,445m came in around 5% ahead of the consensus forecast, while costs met expectation.

The key positive, according to the broker's initial assessment, was margin resilience. It's felt underlying net interest margin (NIM) commentary implied improvement through 2Q26 despite earlier signs of pressure and rising basis risk.

Asset quality trends were notably strong, the analyst highlights, with lower provisioning in business lending and a solid CET1 position supporting balance sheet strength.

The interim dividend of 235cps was slightly better than the broker was anticipating, reflecting better earnings.

While the result should be well received, Citi's valuation concerns remain unchanged.

Sell. Target $137.

Target price is $137.00 Current Price is $158.74 Difference: minus $21.74 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $119.64, suggesting downside of -29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

At first look, UBS says CommBank delivered a “solid” 1H26 result, with NPAT beating consensus and costs in line, though net interest margin missed expectations.

Pre-provision profit beat, while impairment expense was -31% below both UBS and consensus, and the interim dividend of 235c was above consensus, implying a circa 72% payout.

Net interest margin compressed by -2bps to 2.04%, below UBS and consensus, while total revenue growth of 4.5% was stronger than anticipated and underlying opex rose 4% h/h, in line with consensus but 1.9% above UBS. CET1 ratio came in at 12.3%.

UBS suggests the market reaction will hinge on whether investors focus on the NIM miss or the continued strength in lending and deposit growth alongside a favourable credit backdrop, and retains a Sell rating and $125 target price.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $158.74 Difference: minus $33.74 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $119.64, suggesting downside of -29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

In a flash update, Macquarie says Computershare delivered a positive 1H26 result, with improved FY26 guidance for margin income and EBIT and EPS guidance lifted by around 290bps.

While the upgrade was largely anticipated, the broker expects the associated increase in the interim dividend to be well received by investors.

Macquarie highlights a $21.8m cost-out achieved in 1H26, comprising $16.5m from operating expenses and $5.3m from revenue synergies.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and a $36 target price, awaiting further clarity on the M&A outlook and the implications of tokenisation for international exchanges from the results call.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $32.30 Difference: $3.7
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.46, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights Computershare delivered a strong 1H26 result, with robust transactional revenue driving a beat and underpinning a circa 2% lift in FY26 EPS guidance.

The broker notes underlying NPAT was 2% above expectations, though reported NPAT missed by -11% to -12% due to a one-off UK Mortgage disposal cost.

Management revised FY26 EPS guidance to 144c from 140c, implying 6.5% growth in constant currency.

UBS cautions the outlook for transactional revenue strength may soften, increasing the importance of cost control to protect margins.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and trims its target price to $35.30 from $36.20, citing longer term risks from tokenised equity and blockchain.

Target price is $35.30 Current Price is $32.30 Difference: $3
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.46, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

In a flash update, Macquarie notes CSL missed NPAT forecasts by -3%, including consensus, driven by a large miss in Behring.

Behring revenue was -10% below Macquarie’s forecast and -7% below consensus, while gross profit missed by -9% and -7%, respectively, with IG down -6% y/y including a -US$100m hit from Medicare Part D reform and albumin down -27% y/y on Chinese policy changes.

Behring gross margin beat expectations, up 70bps, though still -30bps below consensus.

Seqirus beat on revenue, though CSL expects the US2025/26 flu vaccine market to fall -6% to -8%, while Vifor’s iron franchise declined -15% due to competition from Ferinject and Venofer in the EU and US.

Management retained FY26 guidance. Neutral rating and $188 target price.

Target price is $188.00 Current Price is $171.39 Difference: $16.61
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $227.36, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DXC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Dexus Convenience Retail REIT delivered a solid 1H26 result, in Morgans' view, supported by like-for-like income growth and contracted rental escalators across its metro and highway-focused portfolio.

The broker highlights sound portfolio fundamentals, with high occupancy, long-dated leases and low gearing providing capacity to fund development and repositioning initiatives.

Higher interest rates are expected to moderate medium-term funds from operations (FFO) growth, largely offsetting near-term net property income (NPI) gains, despite supportive valuation conditions.

Morgans lowers its target to $3.00 from $3.10 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold given an attractive dividend yield alongside shares trading at a -26% discount to net asset value (NAV).

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.18
If DXC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems has responded forcefully to the Grizzly short report, in Ord Minnett's view.

Management provided data and explanations countering most claims while leaving some uncertainty around the conditional Korean High Energy Laser Weapon (HELW) contract, believe the analysts.

The broker highlights improved clarity on existing contracts. This includes confirmation of the General Dynamics Land Systems agreement relating to the new M1E3 Abrams battle tank and associated remote weapons systems.

Geopolitical tensions and rising defence spending continue to underpin Ord Minnett's long-term thesis, supported by a substantial unconditional order book.

The stock remains Speculative Buy rated with a $12.72 target.

Target price is $12.72 Current Price is $6.71 Difference: $6.01
If EOS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFT as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the share prices of infrastructure stocks under coverage have lagged amid rising Australian bond yields, but analysis shows defensiveness improves as correlations weaken at higher yield levels.

Overall, the broker believes much of the bond yield impact is already priced in, improving entry points across the sector.

The analysts note Infratil is trading at a significant discount to net asset value (NAV), with potential upside from future NAV growth.

Buy retained and target is unchanged at $12.34.

Target price is $12.34 Current Price is $9.51 Difference: $2.83
If IFT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

James Hardie Industries released Q3 financials this morning and Citi, upon first glance, has concluded the numbers are better than market consensus by some 6%.

The company also beat its own guidance. One key driver has been better margins. Citi makes the point the topline still indicates the general context remains tough.

The company has upgraded its FY26 guidance, but only to reflect the Q3 'beat', which the analysts find interesting.

Target $37.20. Buy.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $33.24 Difference: $3.96
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.57, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Citi keeps its Neutral rating and $210 target for Macquarie Group following a 3Q trading update, noting a lack of news to drive the share price up in the short-term.

A summary of yesterday's research by the broker follows.

At first glance, Citi believes today's trading update by Macquarie Group was broadly in line with the broker's expectations.

Stronger profitability is noted across Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) and MacCap, reflecting known public markets gains, easier comparables and improved investment income.

Management modestly upgraded commodities guidance, now expected to be up year-on-year, implying to Citi a potential lift to consensus revenue. It's felt this may be offset by higher FY26 tax guidance of around 31%.

The broker expects a muted market reaction, with year-to-date trading tracking expectations and little new information to drive near-term share price upside following recent outperformance.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $214.50 Difference: minus $4.5 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $228.00, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Buy (1) -

According to Ord Minnett, Macquarie delivered a strong December quarter, with three of four divisions reporting substantially higher profits supported by satisfactory trading conditions.

Standout contributions from Macquarie Asset Management, Commodities and Global Markets, and Macquarie Capital are noted, while Banking and Financial Services lagged due to margin pressure despite volume growth.

A modest FY26 guidance tweak lifts the broker's commodities income expectations, driven by US gas price volatility and stronger personal banking momentum.

Rapid mortgage growth raises future capital considerations, but management remains confident in returns and funding support, highlights Ord Minnett.

Target unchanged at $255. Buy rating also maintained.

Target price is $255.00 Current Price is $214.50 Difference: $40.5
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $228.00, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NSR as No Rating (-1) -

National Storage REIT's interim result modestly beat Citi's expectations, with underlying EPS and DPS slightly ahead of consensus driven by continued Revenue Per Available Square Metre (REVPAM) growth.

The broker highlights strong operating metrics, with higher occupancy and rate growth supporting margins, assisted by elevated enquiry levels and active portfolio management.

Portfolio expansion remains active, the analysts note, with acquisitions and developments lifting scale while cap rates and net tangible assets (NTA) remain conservative.

Citi is currently on research restriction for National Storage REIT and offers no target or rating.

Current Price is $2.76. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

In a flash update, Macquarie highlights a Peruvian press report quoting the Australian ambassador to Peru, suggesting Orica is set to invest around -US$1bn in a petrochemical plant to produce explosives, ammonia and urea.

The broker views the report as unlikely, arguing Orica would be unlikely to commit capital of this scale under the current CEO given the focus on capital management and returns.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $25.95 target price.

Target price is $25.95 Current Price is $25.38 Difference: $0.57
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.51, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RGN as Buy (1) -

Region Group announced its first half result with funds from operations of 7.9c, directly in-line with consensus. FY26 guidance has been upgraded to FFO of 16.0c.

While not in Bell Potter's forecasts, the broker sees potential avenues for further growth beyond stated guidance, including further accretive acquisitions, further deployment of funds under management with a capital partner, and a recommencement of the buy-back (16% complete).

Bell Potter continues to see a strong runway, with interest expense variability largely hedged out and, in the broker's view, conservative guidance amid the backdrop of improving property fundamentals.

Buy retained. Target rises to $2.75 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.42
If RGN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RGN as Neutral (3) -

At interim results, management of Region Group upgraded FY26 guidance following transactional activity. Funds from operations (FFO) and adjusted FFO guidance were raised by 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

The net tangible assets (NTA) metric during the half improved by 3.6% due to -10bps of cap rate compression, explains the analyst.

At a valuation discount to NTA that already reflects corporate costs, commentary suggests, adding upside seems limited in the near term.

The broker attributes upgraded guidance to accretive acquisitions and management fee growth, while noting guidance remains conservative and excludes further buybacks or transactions.

The target edges up to $2.28 from $2.26 and the Neutral rating is kept.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If RGN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RGN as Underweight (5) -

Region Group's 1H26 funds from opertions was 7.9cps, in line with Morgan Stanley. 2H26 guidance has been upgraded to 16c. 

Net tangible asset valuation has been revised up 3.6% and pro-forma gearing is at 33.5% post the -$53m Treendale acquisition.

Region Group offers clean exposure to non-metro neighbourhood malls, Morgan Stanley suggests, albeit even after its FFO upgrade, growth is 3.2% while In contrast, Charter Hall Retail REIT ((CQR)) offers a mix of convenience investments (not necessarily assets), but grows at 4.0%.

Target rises to $2.45 from $2.25, Underweight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If RGN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RGN as Hold (3) -

As part of interim results, management at Region Group modestly upgraded FY26 funds from operations (FFO) guidance. This change was supported by the Treendale acquisition, lower funding costs and steady net operating income (NOI) growth, Ord Minnett explains.

The broker highlights solid first-half operating metrics, including improved occupancy, rising specialty rents and continued momentum in the funds management platform.

Ord Minnett trims FY26–27 FFO forecasts on updated assumptions, while slightly lifting FY28 estimates. With weighted average lease expiry (WALE) edging lower and growth remaining steady rather than accelerating, valuation support is seen as balanced. 

No change to Hold rating and $2.35 target.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.02
If RGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RGN as Sell (5) -

Further to the initial update, UBS raises its target price to $2.20 from $2.15 while retaining a Sell rating.

The broker lifts funds from operations forecasts by 1-2% across FY26-FY29 and increases its EPS CAGR forecast over the period to 3.3% from 3%.

*****

Earlier today, Region Group released interim results and UBS has grabbed the opportunity to extract fresh insights about supermarket sales momentum for the period.

According to Region Group's release, supermarket sales momentum eased slightly in 1H26, with comparable MAT (Moving Annual Total) sales growth of 3.1% to Dec-25 versus 3.3% at June last year.

The broker highlights improved discount department store trends (3.7% MAT) and a tenant mix anchored by Woolworths/Coles and Big W/Kmart.

Commentary also highlights the REIT is co-investing in e-commerce infrastructure, spending -$8.0m in 1H26 (around -$15m in FY26), as 1Q26 online sales grew 27.9% for Coles Group ((COL)) and 12.9% for Woolworths Group ((WOW)), with online shares of 13.3% and 16.2%, respectively.

The report states one key swing factor for the next leg is whether Coles continues to outpace Woolworths and whether Kmart’s outperformance over Big W persists (the broker's current estimates suggest 'yes'), with flow-through implications for traffic and leasing conditions across the REIT's shopping centres.

UBS does not disclose a rating/price target or flag forecast changes in this short takeaways note, leaving the main risks as a renewed supermarket slowdown and continued channel shift towards online.

Earlier in February, UBS downgraded Region Group to Sell from Neutral with reduced price target of $2.15, down from $2.40.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If RGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS has resumed coverage of Rio Tinto after the Glencore deal was called off, returning with a Neutral rating and a higher target price of $160 from $140.

The broker upgrades 2026 EBITDA forecasts by 7% and 2027 by 4%, driven by higher lithium and precious metal prices, as well as input from the 4Q2025 production report.

UBS now sees an improved risk and reward profile for investors.

Management is expected to refocus on simplifying the business, targeting 40%-50% EBITDA growth by 2030 under its “Stronger, Sharper and Simpler” strategy. Rio intends to maintain a 60% dividend payout ratio.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $162.59 Difference: minus $2.59 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $147.50, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie anticipates South32’s 1HFY26 earnings and dividend will  be in line with expectations, but forecasts a free cash flow (FCF) miss driven by weaker operating cash flow (OCF).

The broker expects stronger contributions from Sierra Gorda, South African Aluminium and Worsley offset by softer results at Cannington, Australian Manganese and Brazil Aluminium.

Lower FCF versus consensus will likely reflect working capital and tax differences despite stable profit expectations, explains the analyst.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and target of $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $0.21
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGM as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett believes Sims’ acquisition of scrap metal operator Tri Coastal Trading for -$95m strengthens the Houston operations, lowering costs and securing long-term port access while enabling export capability.

The transaction is considered strategically sound, funded through the sale of existing Houston land and supportive of regional market consolidation.

The broker's EPS estimates rise in FY26 on the Tri Coastal Trading contribution and stronger Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS) earnings, though a stronger Australian dollar weighs on outer-year forecasts.

Despite valuation support, the stock is fully priced in Ord Minnett's opinion. Sell rating maintained and target increased to $17 from $15.90.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $21.12 Difference: minus $4.12 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.32, suggesting downside of -18.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

After a suspension period, UBS re-establishes cover of Sonic Healthcare with a Neutral rating and a lower target price of $21.80 from $29.40.

The analyst believes Sonic is primed for double digit revenue and earnings growth in FY26 on the back of several European acquisitions, while the retirement of long-standing CEO raises some uncertainty, with more information around the new CEO's vision being sought.

UBS lowers EPS estimates from prior forecasts by -1% for FY26 and -16% for FY27.

Target price is $21.80 Current Price is $21.82 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.00, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SLC as Buy (1) -

Two years into a five year agreement with Superloop, AGL Energy ((AGL)) has switched back to Aussie Broadband ((ABB) for its telco services.

Citi thinks Superloop is entitled to a break-fee. In addition, the company is likely to adjust its cost base in response to the wholesale contract loss.

Given ongoing strong operational momentum, including from Origin Energy ((ORG)), Citi continues to see risk as to the upside.

Target $3.75. Buy.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $1.29
If SLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 41.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STH as Buy (1) -

StepChange delivered a strong 1H26 update, suggests Ord Minnett, detailing unaudited key metrics, and highlighting a return to momentum. Organic growth lifted by 19% along with a sharp lift in normalised earnings (EBITDA), highlights the broker.

Growth was driven by new contract wins, deeper client engagement and expanding footprints across tier-one and government customers, explain the analysts.

Recent acquisitions and improved scale position the business well for the second half, in the broker's view, supported by adequate cash and debt capacity for further growth.

While the target price is lowered to 23c from 26c, Ord Minnett's execution confidence remains intact. Buy maintained.

Target price is $0.23

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the share prices of infrastructure stocks under coverage have lagged amid rising Australian bond yields, but analysis shows defensiveness improves as correlations weaken at higher yield levels.

Overall, the broker believes bond yield impacts are largely priced in, creating a more attractive entry point across the sector.

Solid cash flow growth and potential inorganic upside support Transurban Group's appeal, the analyst notes, reinforcing its relative positioning.

With yield pressures easing in sensitivity, the stock is viewed as well placed despite recent sector weakness.

Buy. Target unchanged at $16.10.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $13.73 Difference: $2.37
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates has reached settlement with RNDC over the closure of its California operations in September. Net cash outflow of -US$65m is expected in 2H26, in-line with previous RNDC Treasury Americas' inventory guide.

While the outcome is no worse than Morgan Stanley's base case estimates, commentary highlights there is no incremental net benefit from the RNDC settlement and no change to the expected two-year time frame of inventory unwind for the Americas.

Equal-weight and $5.10 target retained.Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.02, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Sell (5) -

UBS says Treasury Wine Estates has resolved its dispute with RNDC over the Californian distributorship transition, with Treasury to pay -US$65m in 2H26.

The broker expects Treasury will repurchase around $100m of Americas inventory, plus some Collective stock, which UBS believes will be sold through 2H26 to 2H27 at zero EBIT margin, pressuring Americas margins.

Management has also upgraded 1H26 EBIT guidance to $236m, ahead of consensus at $229m.

UBS retains a Sell rating and $4.75 target price, while lifting its FY26 EPS forecast by 1% and cutting FY27 by -1%.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.02, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Sell (5) -

UBS retains a Sell rating on Whitehaven Coal and trims the target price to $8.90 from $8.95, expecting the company to announce a “token dividend” at results to help align domestic and offshore investors alongside the ongoing buyback.

The broker flags downside risk to dividend expectations, with consensus DPS around double UBS’s 2c forecast and sitting well above consensus EPS.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.12, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WTC as Buy (1) -

WiseTech is currently trading on the lowest forward multiple in its listed history of almost ten years, Bell Potter notes.

There are perhaps several reasons, including recent management and board upheaval, shift to a new pricing model, large acquisition risk, potential for a downgrade to FY26 guidance and erosion of its competitive moat from agentic AI.

These are all valid concerns to varying degrees but at this stage they do not individually or collectively cause the broker to change its forecasts. Bell Potter continues to forecast high teens revenue growth and strong margin expansion in both FY27 and FY28. 

The broker therefore believes the recent sell-off in the share price and the reduction in the forward EV/EBITDA multiple is unjustified and represents a key buying opportunity. Target falls to $87.50 from $100.00, Buy retained.

Target price is $87.50 Current Price is $50.59 Difference: $36.91
If WTC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $110.16, suggesting upside of 116.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WTC as Outperform (1) -

In a flash update, Macquarie highlights WiseTech Global has announced a partnership with Hapag Lloyd to trial the internet of things (IoT) technology for real-time global container visibility, tracking and data collection which will be a pilot program.

The program involves IoT devices being fitted to Hapag's circa 2m containers with frequent location updates sent to WiseTech's platform echostsyem.

The analyst views the partnership as more significant than what it may appear on first glance as its reinforces WiseTech's relationship with the most "critical" part of the supply chain, assisting with the development of a multi-sided market place.

Commentary concludes the program is indicative of the strategy to push further into achieving value for shippling line businesses and improves Hapag's value proposition for the Cargowise system.

Macquarie is Outperform rated with a $94 target on WiseTech Global.

Target price is $94.00 Current Price is $50.59 Difference: $43.41
If WTC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $110.16, suggesting upside of 116.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi sees accelerating adoption of US-based financial technology company Fiserv’s Cashflow Central as a positive read-through for Xero via Melio, highlighting a sharp increase in client wins during the December quarter.

The broker also points to Melio's strong pipeline visibility and limited live customers as supportive of multi-year growth, with syndicated revenue expected to scale rapidly and be margin accretive.

Improving small-to-medium business (SMB) health indicators add to the constructive backdrop, according to the analysts.

Target $144.80. Buy.

Target price is $144.80 Current Price is $84.76 Difference: $60.04
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $178.10, suggesting upside of 112.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources