Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates A1N as Accumulate (2) -

Following "relatively solid" FY24 results for ARN Media, which owns the KISS and GOLD networks and the iHeart digital business, Ord Minnett lowers its target to 58 cents from 64 cents after reducing EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 by -7% and -3%, respectively.

The analyst explains the lower forecasts reflect increased interest and depreciation charges which outweigh improved earnings from the Cody Out-of-Home division focusing on outdoor advertising in Hong Kong. The broker's 2027 EPS forecast rises by 5%.

Management is targeting low single-digit revenue growth for 2025, driven by strong ratings, an enhanced commercial strategy, and growth in its digital audio division, explains the broker. Accumulate.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If A1N meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATG as Hold (3) -

Articore Group reported a challenging interim result, according to Morgans, with marketplace revenue declining by -12% year-on-year to approximately $230m, missing consensus by -6%, driven by a -20% drop in Redbubble marketplace revenue.

Gross profit was $101m, down -7% on the previous period, but the gross profit margin improved by 220bps to 43.8%.

Management has focused on cost-cutting initiatives, which are expected to yield between -$12-14m in annual savings, but the broker remains cautious about topline growth due to a difficult consumer environment.

FY25 guidance for opex was reaffirmed and management still expects to deliver underlying positive cash flows in FY25.

Morgans maintains a Hold rating, with a target price of 41 cents, down from 58 cents, reflecting the broker's more conservative outlook.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.14
If ATG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 53.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AVL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Australian Vanadium is progressing its project in WA, observes Shaw and Partners, producing vanadium electrolyte from its midstream VSUN Energy facility.

Management is targeting a September quarter 2025 final investment decision (FID) for a utility-scale Vanadium Flow Battery (VFB) deployment in the Australian energy market.

The company is focused on de-risking the project in stages, explain the analysts, with the initial success being the production of vanadium electrolyte and its use in Horizon batteries.

The target falls to 6c from 8c, in line with the broker's net present value of its modeled 10 hour, 50MW, VFB. Buy, High Risk.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.048
If AVL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AW1 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

American West Metals released a positive Preliminary Economic Analysis (PEA) for the Storm Copper Project in Nunavut, Canada, outlining a low-capex operation with potential for expansion, according to Shaw and Partners.

The PEA proposes a processing capacity of 850ktpa, increasing to 1.25mtpa in year three, which led to a reduction in the broker's post-tax net present value (NPV) estimate to $270m from $465m.

The broker's target falls to 20c from 32c based on the reduced development scenario.

The project has significant growth potential, believe the analysts, with drilling set to recommence in Q1 2025 and exploration of near-surface targets like Gap, Squall, and Hailstorm.

Shaw maintains a Buy, High Risk rating.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.158
If AW1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 376% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Antipa Minerals has announced Newmont Corp ((NEM)) has withdrawn from the Wilki Project farm-in agreement, resulting in Antipa retaining full ownership of the project.

The Wilki Project, located 30km from Antipa’s Minyari project, contains a 103koz Mineral Resource, with a promising undrilled Parklands target nearby, explains the broker.

Management plans to drill the Parklands target in H1 2025 and has increased its internal Mineral Resource estimate to 4.4moz gold equivalent from 2.9oz.

Shaw raises its target price to 66c from 36c due to recent increased mineral prospectivity, 100% ownership of the Wilkie project, and due to the progress of development studies at Minyari. Buy, High Risk.

Note: there has been 10:1 share consolidation, approved at the company's AGM on February 21.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.622
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 1637% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates B4P as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Beforepay Group reported a 1H25 net transaction margin of $11.8m, up 17.8% year-on-year, in line with its January Quarterly Activities Report, observes Shaw and Partners. The Buy, High Risk rating and $2.15 target are maintained.

Active users grew by 9.3%, highlights the broker, and the company continues to improve its lending algorithms, with credit losses down to 1.1% from 1.4% in the prior year.

Management launched a pilot for larger loans greater than $2,000 with longer durations, which should be margin-neutral, suggests Shaw, though more data is needed to assess performance.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.865
If B4P meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BTR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Brightstar Resources has released final results from its reverse circulation (RC) drilling program at the Lord Nelson deposit, notes Shaw and Partners, part of the 1.5moz gold Sandstone Hub in Western Australia.

The program confirmed significant high-grade extensions to known mineralisation, with notable results including 40m at 1.89g/t gold and 22m at 2.38g/t gold, highlight the analysts.

Brightstar also received key approvals to begin mining at the Fish Underground Project, notes the broker, with first ore production expected in the June quarter of 2025.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 4 cent target are maintained.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.022
If BTR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall Group has highlighted its diversified real estate platform at the Citi 2025 global property conference. It is the largest diversified platform in Australia with operating leverage as interest rates fall and boost real estate demand.

The broker points out there are strong tenant relationships across multiple asset types and the turning point for asset growth has likely occurred, to be driven by income growth through higher rents and potential capitalisation rate compression.

Acquisitions are expected to outpace divestments moving forward and Charter Hall has signalled it prefers off-market and direct deals over competitive bidding. Neutral rating and $18.50 target.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $17.10 Difference: $1.4
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.94, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

At Citi's 2025 Global Property conference, commentary by management highlighted Charter Hall Long WALE REIT stands to benefit from declining interest rates.

The broker notes a large portion of the leases are triple net, with annual rent increases, many linked to CPI, ensuring a strong underlying dividend yield and driving rental growth during inflationary periods.

Management also emphasised the defensive nature of the long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) leases and the presence of high-quality tenants.

Target $4.00. Neutral.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: $0.14
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Citi hosted Charter Hall Retail REIT at the 2025 Global Property Conference.

As per the broker's commentary, management at the REIT highlighted the upside potential from the Hotel Property Investments deal with Hostplus, expected to support growth and high-yield convenience retail exposure alongside strong income growth.

The REIT expects the interest rate cycle to create a short-to-medium-term tailwind, with a positive and robust outlook for retail assets.

Cap rates are seen as stabilising, with expectations of valuation increases. Buy rated with a $4 target.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.6
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights key small/mid-cap stock ideas where the broker has conviction on earnings and the outlook post-reporting season.

Corporate Travel Management is the top idea. The analyst notes potential upside surprises from weaker expectations in Europe and Asia and less challenging seasonality in the FY25 earnings outlook.

Margin upside is expected from vertical integration, centralisation, and automation, with SleepSpace supporting A&NZ profitability and the Lightning booking tool benefiting the US market.

Morgan Stanley anticipates a trading update in the April-May conference season, with the UK and Asia expected to show improvement.

No change to the target price of $18.30. Overweight rating with an Industry View of In-Line.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: $2.43
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.63, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses the introduction of the first franchise partner in Malaysia for Domino's Pizza Enterprises, having been 100% corporate since it was acquired in November 2022.

The broker believes the transaction provides confidence that the market may have bottomed.

The acquirer of the four stores is an ex-employee with a strong understanding of the business.

The broker suspects the company will franchise more of its 275 remaining corporate stores in Malaysia, as well as in Japan, and this would be positive for the balance sheet. Neutral and $31.82 target.

Target price is $31.82 Current Price is $27.21 Difference: $4.61
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.29, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HCW as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT has issued a breach notice to Healthscope for not paying the full rent due for March 2025. The REIT has withdrawn guidance until the issue is resolved.

Only partial rent has been received, and Healthscope has a period to address the payment. If the breach is not remedied, HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT management has the right to terminate the leases.

Currently, Healthscope accounts for 59% of the REIT's income. As per the broker's commentary, if all fees are waived, forecast funds from operations for FY26 would decline to around 1c from 8.5c, and interest cover would rise to approximately 1.2x versus the covenant of 1.75x.

Underweight rating. Target price is $1.04. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.04 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.15
If HCW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 36.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWH as Neutral (3) -

NRW Holdings posted a first half result that largely beat Macquarie's estimates, although mining was softer as it was affected by rainfall and some reduction or termination of contracts.

Minerals, energy and technology earnings were well ahead, as was civil.

FY25 guidance is maintained, which the broker notes implies a larger skew to the second half and delivery will be a key catalyst for a re-rating. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $3.00 from $3.37.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.15
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the recent pull back in Orica shares has been overdone, given the positive earnings outlook and the options on the balance sheet. The company will provide an investor briefing on March 12.

At the result release in November, Orica indicated it would update the capital allocation framework as part of this briefing and the broker envisages buyback potential.

Macquarie assesses the company is on track to deliver FY25 consensus earnings estimates.

This expectation stems from ammonium nitrate price rises and continued take-up of value-added product and technology solutions. Outperform and $20.78 target.

Target price is $20.78 Current Price is $16.55 Difference: $4.23
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.80, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as Outperform (1) -

Pexa Group delivered a first half result at the top end of guidance, Macquarie notes, with leverage continuing to ease. A $50m buyback has been announced for the second half.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating, with its viewpoint supported by progress in the UK, improved cash flow, revenue growth and higher margins. Target is raised to $14.72 from $14.64.

Target price is $14.72 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $2.99
If PXA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.35, suggesting upside of 34.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RDG as Speculative Hold (3) -

Resource Development announced 10% growth in 1H25 revenue, with net profit declining by -4.7%, Bell Potter notes.

The company ended the period with net debt of $130.5m, up from $114m at the end of June 2024, with operating cash flow of $11.8m, down from $13.4m in the previous year.

Bell Potter lowers EPS estimates to reflect lower assumptions in garnet and heavy mineral concentrate sales volumes in 2H25 and lower realised prices.

The risk rating on the stock is upgraded to Speculative Hold from Hold, given the higher levels of risk associated with Lucky Bay's plant modifications, commissioning, and increase in debt.

Target price drops to 1.5c from 2.7c.

Target price is $0.02 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.002
If RDG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RTH as Buy (1) -

RAS Technology reported strong 1H results, according to Ord Minnett's assessment, with annual recurring revenue (ARR), revenue, earnings (EBITDA), and free cash flow (FCF) all in-line or ahead of the broker's estimates.

Around a week ago, management made a strategic acquisition of six Hong Kong-based racing publications for -HKD20m, which is expected to be earnings accretive within the first year, notes the analyst.

The company continues to profitably grow at more than 30% year-on-year, highlights the broker. Target rises to $1.78 from $1.66. Buy maintained.

Target price is $1.78 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $1.08
If RTH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 154% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Scentre Group presented at the Citi 2025 Global Property CEO Conference and pointed to the retail sector performing well due to robust demand, limitations on supply, and good pricing power, the broker reports.

There is believed to be a longer-term growth opportunity in residential development, with the group securing the Hornsby project following major rezoning across several sites.

An expectation of interest rate cost savings in the coming years was also noted. Citi rates the stock as Buy, with a target price of $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.52
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SX2 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Management at Southern Cross Gold Consolidated has updated its exploration target at the Sunday Creek Gold and Antimony Project in Victoria.

The company has effectively doubled the Exploration Target (ET) at Sunday Creek to between 2.2-3.2moz gold equivalent at grades of 8.3-10.6g/t gold equivalent.

The updated target covers three main areas along 1km of strike and does not yet include the high-grade Christina mineralisation, explain the analysts.

Management is converting the exploration target into a Mineral Resource, with approximately 0.7moz already converted and 50koz added monthly, a rate set to increase with additional rigs, highlights Shaw.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $3.69 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.69 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.24
If SX2 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SXL as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Following "relatively solid" interim results for Southern Cross Media, which owns the Triple M and HIT networks and the LiSTNR digital business, Ord Minnett downgrades its rating to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds, while retaining a 70c target.

The company is now an audio-only business following the divestment of its TV assets to the Paramount-owned Network 10 and Australian Digital Holdings, explains the broker.

Ord Minnett lowers its EPS forecasts across FY25-27 by -36%, -22% and -15%, respectively, to reflect the sale of the company’s
TV assets.

Current Price is $0.71. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.56, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources