Australian Broker Call
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January 29, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AMP - | AMP | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| GXY - | GALAXY RESOURCES | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie | ||
| ILU - | ILUKA RESOURCES | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| OGC - | OCEANAGOLD | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
| RMD - | RESMED | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -
Despite the risks, particularly over the next three weeks, Citi still envisages potential for value to emerge in AMP.
An adverse outcome at the Hayne Royal Commission, re-basing by the new CEO and further remediation are among potential risks. Citi maintains a Buy/High Risk rating and reduces the target to $2.80 from $2.85.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.49
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 22.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -42.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
AMP has updated the market on 2018 earnings. The dividend has been reduced to $0.04 per share in the context of further losses in the life business and some large asset sales yet to be completed.
The reduction raises questions for Credit Suisse about capital amid suspicions that the new CEO's future strategy will affect 2019 earnings.
The company has reaffirmed its commitment to returning the majority of the net cash proceeds received on settlement of the transaction with Resolution Life.
Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and $2.65 target and expects the share price to drift until the Hayne Royal Commission final report is released in February.
Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.34
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -42.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
The company's dividend has been cut to $0.04 per share following additional provisions for advice remediation and a $100m top up to reserves.
Macquarie notes, while the capital position appears light, this should be rectified following completion of the Resolution Life transaction. However, any future capital management activities could be delayed while remediation expense programs are being run.
The broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $2.50 from $2.70.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.19
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -42.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -
Lower wealth earnings in the second half, amid volatile markets and regulatory uncertainty, have caused Morgan Stanley to downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight.
The broker also cites a lack of clarity on the future strategy from the new CEO. The main concern is how AMP sustains a commercially viable model, while managing compliance risk and the likely elevated role of trustee boards.
Target is reduced to $2.50 from $3.40. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.19
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -42.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AMP as Hold (3) -
The broker assumes AMP's update, warning of very soft second half earnings, reflects an element of rebasing, but given numerous earnings pressures and uncertainties the stock is currently difficult to value.
With a large operating loss in recently sold businesses, weak performance in ongoing businesses and further provisions for remediation, the broker cuts 2018-19 earnings forecasts by -92%/-32% and takes a more conservative approach to outer years. Target falls to $2.61 from $2.97, Hold retained.
Target price is $2.61 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.3
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 23.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -42.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 22.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -
AMP has updated the market on its capital position and flagged an extra $100m in capital reserves for the life business.
Ord Minnett envisages potential upside on a valuation basis but remains concerned about the deterioration in profitability of the retained business units and also the long-term impact from possible adverse findings by the Hayne Royal Commission.
AMP is due to report its 2018 result on February 14. Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $2.60 from $2.90.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.29
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -42.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
The pre-release of 2018 results sets the scene for a challenging 2019, UBS assesses. The most significant new information relates to capital, with a net -$140m erosion of the surplus from additional remediation provisions.
This had been anticipated and has not meaningfully changed the broker's view on value. UBS disagrees with the company's approach to including recurring profits in the sold business accruing to Resolution Life in "underlying earnings".
UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $2.50 target.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.19
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -42.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.30
Deutsche Bank rates AQG as Buy (1) -
2019 production guidance is 320-380,000 ounces at an AISC of US$675-725/oz. Strong guidance has been provided for the sulphide plant.
While the risk of disruptions will continue, Deutsche Bank believes, this is being taken into account and maintains a Buy rating. Target is $4.20.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.9
If AQG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of 147.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.71
Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -
Ahead of Brambles' earnings results the broker has made minor forecast changes due to updated currency assumptions. First half earnings are expected to be flat.
Target rises to $10.56 from $10.41, Hold retained.
Target price is $10.56 Current Price is $10.71 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.18, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.44 cents and EPS of 53.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.9, implying annual growth of 14.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $1.99
Credit Suisse rates GXY as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
December quarter production was softer than Credit Suisse expected and guidance for 2019 pricing is notably weaker. Nevertheless, the broker finds reasons to be constructive about the stock and believes it offers value.
The share price is offering an attractive entry point and the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $3.15.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $1.16
If GXY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 50.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.34 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates GXY as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
December quarter concentrate sales were in line with expectations. Incorporating the quarterly production result and lower spodumene prices for the second half of 2019, drives material reductions to Macquarie's earnings estimates.
The broker believes, with the advent of new, larger and lower-cost projects, Mount Cattlin is likely to become the marginal Australian producer and margin should continue to be eroded.
Meanwhile, the timeline for Sal de Vida development draws out. Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform and reduces the target to $2.20 from $2.70.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $0.21
If GXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 50.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.26 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.41
Credit Suisse rates ILU as Outperform (1) -
The company posted a strong finish to 2018 and production ahead of expectations. Credit Suisse believes end markets for the company's products are in better shape than is generally assessed.
The broker believes the retracement in the second half was overdone and there is value in the stock, which trades at undemanding multiples. Outperform rating and $11.60 target maintained.
Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $3.19
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 76.97 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 100.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 33.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ILU as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Strong December quarter cash earnings have driven an upgrade to Macquarie's 2018 estimates. The company has secured price increases of 8-11% for rutile and synthetic rutile in the first half of 2019.
Demand for zircon has softened but the company believes zircon is moving towards a structural deficit, while any price rises present upside risk to the broker's forecasts.
Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $9.10 from $7.80.
Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $0.69
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 74.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 104.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 33.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -
Quarterly production was in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. Importantly, rutile prices have increased for the next six months and now exceed US$1100/t for pigment and US$1300/t for welding markets.
The broker awaits 2019 guidance, expecting fresh zircon pricing will be announced. Demand for zircon slowed in the December quarter but there was minimal impact on sales.
The broker maintains an Overweight rating and Attractive sector view. Target is $11.65.
Target price is $11.65 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $3.24
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.10 cents and EPS of 124.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 33.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ILU as Accumulate (2) -
Commentary from the company has highlighted the global uncertainty that is affecting sentiment and demand, although market improvements are anticipated after Chinese New Year.
December quarter production was sound across the Australian business and Ord Minnett believes the macro risks are priced into the shares. Accumulate rating and $9.50 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $1.09
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 33.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) -
December quarter production was ahead of forecasts. For the first half Iluka has announced a sequential price increase of 8-11% for rutile but UBS suspects the market was concerned this would not be achieved, given weakness in the pigment market.
Higher grades and improved recoveries at Jacinth-Ambrosia have led to a build up in inventory which should smooth 2019 production.
Demand for zircon slowed in the December quarter, particularly in Europe and India while China is expected to pick up after the New Year. Buy rating and $11.50 target maintained.
Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $3.09
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 33.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NWL NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $6.65
Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -
The impacts on net flows in the December quarter from the Royal Commission, weakness in capital markets and price reduction by BT were greater than Citi expected.
Weakness in equity market resulted in a -$1.2bn market movement in this quarter. The broker still expects the company to benefit from the structural shift towards specialist platform providers.
Neutral rating maintained and target is reduced to $8.05 from $8.10.
Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $1.4
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.83, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 70.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 25.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NWL as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse believes the company is making the most of its opportunities, created by the disruption in the wealth management industry.
Slower net flows reported in the December quarter are considered temporary and the broker remains comfortable with an FY19-21 net flow forecast of $4.5-5.0bn.
Another reason Credit Suisse is not concerned about the level of flows is that lower flows were partly because of the mix in new business during the quarter. Neutral rating and $7.75 target maintained.
Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $1.1
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.83, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 70.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 25.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NWL as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie believes the market opportunity supports the company's ability to take market share in the platform market. Tender activity and business opportunities are attractive although flows are competitive, leading to margin pressure.
The broker is forecasting 12 basis points of fee margin compression in the next three years. Macquarie reduces estimates for earnings per share in FY19 and FY20 by -8.7% and -6.4% respectively.
The target is reduced to $7.53 from $7.75. While the business has a strong outlook the broker struggles from a valuation perspective and maintains a Neutral rating.
Target price is $7.53 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $0.88
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.83, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 70.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 25.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NWL as Sell (5) -
Fund flows stalled in the December quarter, net flows declining for the first time since the company listed. The company considers this a temporary situation as advisers re-appraise competing platform offerings.
UBS continues to believe Netwealth should be able to maintain its leading flow position, given its technology and service offer. However, there are risks from competitive responses and the broker does not believe these are adequately reflected in the share price.
Sell rating and $7.20 target maintained.
Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $0.55
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.83, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 70.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 25.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.82
Ord Minnett rates NXT as Reinstate Coverage with Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett estimates revenue growth will accelerate to 27-28% in FY20-21 as growth in hyper-scale cloud operators outstrips the available supply of data centre capacity.
With long construction lead times and difficulty in securing prime real estate it makes more sense for industry operators to acquire rather than build. The broker expects this trend to drive M&A which could benefit NextDC.
Ord Minnett reinstates coverage with an Accumulate rating and $8.00 target.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.82 Difference: $1.18
If NXT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 568.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.82
Citi rates OGC as Buy (1) -
Costs were higher in the December quarter but an improving outlook in the Philippines and extensions in New Zealand lift Citi's valuation. This de-risks the broker's rating to Buy from Buy/High Risk.
The situation in the Philippines has been clarified and, while measures are yet to be finalised, the bill for a single fiscal regime in mineral agreements has passed the House, which provides confidence that Didipio will be allowed to continue. Target is raised to $5.45 from $4.70.
Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $0.63
If OGC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.39 cents and EPS of 30.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.04 cents and EPS of 30.74 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of -13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates OGC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
Despite the weakness at Haile the company achieved upgraded production guidance in the December quarter. 2019/20 earnings estimates are reduced on the implications of the grade depletion over 2018, ahead of further guidance and details in the February results.
Credit Suisse downgrades to Underperform from Neutral as a result. Target is steady at $4.00.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If OGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.39 cents and EPS of 28.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.39 cents and EPS of 11.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of -13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.60
Deutsche Bank rates OZL as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank believes management has signalled its confidence in the Carrapateena project, which is now in peak construction mode, although maintains a three-month delay in its modelling with no production expected this year.
Post the December quarter, the broker updates its model, leading to a 7% increase in 2018 estimates and a 40% increase in 2019 estimates. The broker maintains a Buy rating and $10.50 target.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: $0.9
If OZL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.63, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.4, implying annual growth of -0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.5, implying annual growth of -22.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
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Overnight Price: $0.63
Citi rates PLS as Buy (1) -
Citi reduces FY19 and FY20 earnings estimates by -10% and -9%, respectively, on lower spodumene price realisation.
The broker now expects the Pilgangoora project to achieve 95% of nameplate in the June half.
Buy/High Risk rating and $1.20 target maintained.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.57
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting upside of 76.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of 200.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PLS as Outperform (1) -
The ramping up process has been strong, with Credit Suisse noting the December quarter performance already exceeded some of the company's established peers.
This is an endorsement of the quality of the deposit and plant design, in the broker's view. Pilbara Minerals remains the broker's top pick in the lithium sector for its quality, growth outlook and valuation.
Outperform rating and $1.15 target maintained.
Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.52
If PLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting upside of 76.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of 200.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -
The company produced 47,900 ounces of spodumene concentrate over the December quarter, in line with expectations.
Macquarie expects Pilbara Minerals to exit the third quarter of FY19 at the full stage 1 production rate and declare commercial production at the beginning of the June quarter.
Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $1.20 target.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.57
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting upside of 76.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of 200.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.96
Citi rates RMD as Neutral (3) -
Citi acknowledges it expected that a high-multiple stock would justify the rally in the share price through operating leverage, resulting in strong earnings growth.
Instead the market has been forced to focus on the US$1bn invested in businesses over which very little disclosure was provided. This will contribute to an operating loss in the next 12 months and, as a result, the share price fell -12%.
Citi maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $14.70 from $15.20. The business is now considered fairly valued.
Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $12.96 Difference: $1.74
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.49 cents and EPS of 46.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.65 cents and EPS of 49.96 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates RMD as Outperform (1) -
December quarter results were mixed, with strong US mask and generator growth and the rest-of-the-world devices affected by lower upgrade sales in France/Japan.
Higher cost guidance drives downgrades of -8% to Credit Suisse estimates. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $15.35 from $16.10.
Target price is $15.35 Current Price is $12.96 Difference: $2.39
If RMD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.22 cents and EPS of 47.03 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.30 cents and EPS of 49.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates RMD as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank was disappointed with the December quarter results, with sales growth below expectations and higher costs being invested as a result of acquisitions.
Still, the company is achieving positive sales growth and appears to be taking market share. Hold rating maintained.Target is US$115.
Current Price is $12.96. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RMD as Underperform (5) -
December quarter results were below Macquarie's forecasts and cost guidance is ahead of expectations. The broker envisages medium-longer term opportunities from software acquisitions but near-term risks for the core sleep business.
Underperform rating is maintained and the target reduced to $13.70 from $14.15.
Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $12.96 Difference: $0.74
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.22 cents and EPS of 47.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.43 cents and EPS of 52.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley reduces estimates because of softer growth in the rest of the world and the dilution from Propeller Health and Verily. Still, the broker's long-term view is intact, supported by a large and growing installed base and stable US reimbursement.
The main headwinds for the near term include the dilution, as mentioned, and the low growth in the device segment in the rest of the world, as periods that benefited from favourable reimbursement changes are cycled. Overweight rating and target is $17. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $12.96 Difference: $4.04
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.95 cents and EPS of 47.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.95 cents and EPS of 54.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RMD as Add (1) -
"Short-sighted and overdone," says Morgans, with regard the share price response to ResMed's sales miss, which was impacted by lower device uptake in France and Japan as upgrades roll off. Patient growth outside these geographies is described by management as excellent, leading to market share gains and expanding margins.
Near device growth ex-US is slowing, acquisitions are adding to costs and Brightree is slowing "a tad", but the broker believes the company remains well positioned. Target falls to $16.31 from $16.73, Add retained.
Target price is $16.31 Current Price is $12.96 Difference: $3.35
If RMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.22 cents and EPS of 51.36 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.92 cents and EPS of 57.97 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RMD as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
December quarter operating income was almost -4% below Ord Minnett's forecasts because of weaker-than-expected sales growth. This was offset by a better-than-expected gross margin.
The broker remains comfortable with the company's leading position in sleep therapy but expects sales growth to be subdued over much of 2019 as past strength is cycled.
Rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold as the broker now expects earnings to contract for the next few quarters. Target is lowered to $13.40 from $15.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $12.96 Difference: $0.44
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RMD as Neutral (3) -
Following the December quarter results UBS downgrades estimates for earnings per share by -5-10%.
While the drivers of the sleep/respiratory care earnings are intact, the broker calculates that, having spent US$1bn on recent connected-care transactions, a path to generating returns above the cost of capital is necessary to support the future performance of the stock.
Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to US$115 from US$116.
Current Price is $12.96. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.22 cents and EPS of 47.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.30 cents and EPS of 49.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.15
Deutsche Bank rates RRL as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank reduces estimates for FY19 by -2% after slightly revising cash costs higher. First production at McPhillamys is pushed back to late 2021, which has been offset by higher underground production assumptions at Rosemont.
Hold rating and $4.30 target maintained.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting downside of -13.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.0, implying annual growth of -4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.2, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates STO as Neutral (3) -
December quarter results were solid and sales volumes beat prior guidance by 1.5%. Higher gas prices were partly offset by lower oil prices.
Credit Suisse, in stripping out the impact of Quadrant and Asian asset disposals, notes fourth quarter production was flat. Near-term earnings and price support should come with the integration of Quadrant and the optimisation of infrastructure positions.
Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $6.00 from $6.58.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.96 cents and EPS of 40.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.13 cents and EPS of 52.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.4, implying annual growth of 8.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.77
Deutsche Bank rates VEA as Buy (1) -
Weakness in regional refining margins has caused the company to announce a lower-than-expected December gross refining margin of US$3.30/bbl.
The company confirms an oversupply of gasoline in the region has caused cracks to remain depressed. Buy rating is retained on valuation. Target is steady at $2.40.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.63
If VEA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 35.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 12.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -
The company has downgraded 2018 refining guidance to $125m, a result of increased supply of light sweet crude. UBS reduces estimates by -3% to reflect the downgrade.
The broker retains second half forecasts, after cutting first half margins to US$5.50/bbl, given no change to global refiner margin forecasts.
Buy rating maintained, and the market is expected to look through near-term volatility. Target is reduced to $2.45 from $2.60.
Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.68
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 35.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 12.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| AMP | AMP | Citi | 2.80 | 2.85 | -1.75% |
| Macquarie | 2.50 | 2.70 | -7.41% | ||
| Morgan Stanley | 2.50 | 3.40 | -26.47% | ||
| Morgans | 2.61 | 2.97 | -12.12% | ||
| Ord Minnett | 2.60 | 2.90 | -10.34% | ||
| ANZ | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Ord Minnett | 32.10 | 32.20 | -0.31% |
| BEN | BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK | Ord Minnett | 10.60 | 10.70 | -0.93% |
| BXB | BRAMBLES | Morgans | 10.56 | 10.41 | 1.44% |
| CBA | COMMBANK | Ord Minnett | 75.40 | 77.60 | -2.84% |
| GXY | GALAXY RESOURCES | Macquarie | 2.20 | 2.70 | -18.52% |
| ILU | ILUKA RESOURCES | Macquarie | 9.10 | 7.80 | 16.67% |
| Morgan Stanley | 11.65 | 10.65 | 9.39% | ||
| NWL | NETWEALTH GROUP | Citi | 8.05 | 8.10 | -0.62% |
| Macquarie | 7.53 | 7.75 | -2.84% | ||
| UBS | 7.20 | 7.15 | 0.70% | ||
| NXT | NEXTDC | Ord Minnett | 8.00 | 2.95 | 171.19% |
| OGC | OCEANAGOLD | Citi | 5.45 | 4.70 | 15.96% |
| OZL | OZ MINERALS | Deutsche Bank | 10.50 | 10.00 | 5.00% |
| PLS | PILBARA MINERALS | Citi | 1.20 | 1.05 | 14.29% |
| RMD | RESMED | Citi | 14.70 | 15.20 | -3.29% |
| Credit Suisse | 15.35 | 16.10 | -4.66% | ||
| Macquarie | 13.70 | 14.15 | -3.18% | ||
| Morgan Stanley | 17.00 | 17.90 | -5.03% | ||
| Morgans | 16.31 | 16.73 | -2.51% | ||
| Ord Minnett | 13.40 | 15.50 | -13.55% | ||
| RRL | REGIS RESOURCES | Deutsche Bank | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00% |
| STO | SANTOS | Credit Suisse | 6.00 | 6.58 | -8.81% |
| VEA | VIVA ENERGY GROUP | UBS | 2.45 | 2.60 | -5.77% |
Summaries
| AMP | AMP | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.31 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.31 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.31 | ||
| Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.31 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.31 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.31 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.31 | ||
| AQG | ALACER GOLD | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.30 |
| BXB | BRAMBLES | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $10.71 |
| GXY | GALAXY RESOURCES | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.99 |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.99 | ||
| ILU | ILUKA RESOURCES | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.41 |
| Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.41 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $8.41 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $8.41 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $8.41 | ||
| NWL | NETWEALTH GROUP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $6.65 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.65 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.65 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $6.65 | ||
| NXT | NEXTDC | Reinstate Coverage with Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.82 |
| OGC | OCEANAGOLD | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.82 |
| Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.82 | ||
| OZL | OZ MINERALS | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $9.60 |
| PLS | PILBARA MINERALS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.63 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.63 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.63 | ||
| RMD | RESMED | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $12.96 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.96 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $12.96 | ||
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.96 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $12.96 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $12.96 | ||
| Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.96 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $12.96 | ||
| RRL | REGIS RESOURCES | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $5.15 |
| STO | SANTOS | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.22 |
| VEA | VIVA ENERGY GROUP | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $1.77 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.77 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 17 |
| 2. Accumulate | 3 |
| 3. Hold | 15 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 3 |
Tuesday 29 January 2019
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