Australian Broker Call
October 31, 2016
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 11:51 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AMP - | AMP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
| CWN - | CROWN RESORTS | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| MQG - | MACQUARIE GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Deutsche Bank | ||
| WES - | WESFARMERS | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
Citi rates AMC as Buy (1) -
Amcor's peers around the globe have been tempering investor expectations this quarter and this has had an impact on Amcor's share price, suggest Citi analysts. They do not seem the slightest worried, noting Amcor's key market positioning should keep the business relatively resilient.
Citi analysts also believe the company's growth agenda has further to run. They'd treat any share price weakness as a longer term buying opportunity. $17.60 price target retained. Buy.
Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $14.65 Difference: $2.95
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.30, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 56.84 cents and EPS of 84.04 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.20 cents and EPS of 92.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.4, implying annual growth of 13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts were taken by (negative) surprise as the company announced a reinsurance agreement, as expected, alongside much larger than anticipated write-downs for its troubled Life operations. The analysts suspect management is being overly conservative.
The analysts do see a silver lining in that AMP can tap into its surpluses, while retaining less capital (less need for de-risking) effectively underwriting its dividends to shareholders while being able to pay out a special bonus at some point.
Buy call retained. Price target drops to $5.10 from $6.05.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.42
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY16:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of -40.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 76.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AMP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Credit Suisse has downgraded AMP to Neutral from Outperform post yet another disappointing market update.The Australian Wealth Protection (WP) business continues to present headaches and the analysts are not convinced management is doing enough to stem the bad news flow.
On ongoing risk for more disappointment, Credit Suisse lowers its target to $5.00 from $5.75. FY16 NPAT estimate goes down by 52% (resulting in a negative EPS), outer years fall by 7-10%.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.32
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of -40.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 76.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
While a new reinsurance deal may lead to the release of capital, subject to approval, AMP has declared weakness in its Life business to be structural and has subsequently written down its value.
The Life book is presently only deriving earnings growth from premium increases, the broker notes, and not through organic growth of new policies.
Hence while assumptions have been reset for the business, the risk of further earnings declines remains, the broker warns. Neutral retained, target falls to $4.40 from $5.50.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 28.10 cents and EPS of 35.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of -40.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.90 cents and EPS of 33.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 76.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AMP as Add (1) -
Morgans was disappointed with the first quarter update given the further deterioration in wealth protection business and $44m in experience losses recorded.
Management has announced actions to significantly re-set this business and the broker believes this should finally remove the division from the forefront of investor concerns and allow the market to focus on the wealth management franchises.
The broker expects the company, post its life reinsurance transaction, will have excess capital for a 10c special dividend. Add rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $5.59 from $6.03.
Target price is $5.59 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.91
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 27.90 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of -40.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 34.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 76.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -
The trading update disappointed Ord Minnett, particularly in wealth protection. AMP is guiding to possible experience losses of $75m in the second half.
Yet, given the share price fall of 8% the broker suspects concerns around wealth protection are now overdone. The broker believes AMP has been realistic with its revised life assumptions. As well, a desire to remove the capital-intensive parts of the business should mean the stock re-rates.
Accumulate rating retained. Target is cut to $5.50 from $6.10.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.82
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of -40.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 76.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
The September quarter was the softest for cash flow in 10 years, UBS observes, with a significant lowering of profit assumptions for wealth protection and the Munich Re quota share.
Greater stability in claims and an improvement in the core wealth management business is required for UBS to adopt a more positive view on the stock. Neutral. Target is reduced to $4.85 from $5.25.
Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.17
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of -40.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 76.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -
Following the bank's announcement of additional FY16 charges totalling $360m post tax, Credit Suisse downgrades FY16 earnings estimates by 4%.
Whilst the broker envisages an attractive three-year cost and business restructuring story, on a closer-term view it remains cautious, given the challenges in funding sizable additional restructuring provisions in a regulatory capital constrained environment.
Price target is $27.30. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $27.30 Current Price is $27.62 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 204.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.3, implying annual growth of -25.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 164.00 cents and EPS of 249.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.0, implying annual growth of 18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ANZ as Hold (3) -
ANZ will take a $360m post tax charge in the second half related to additional restructuring and software capitalisation changes, as well as changes to CVA methodology and Esanda dealer finance divestment.
Deutsche Bank believes the bank is being overly generous in its treatment of the charges as only the latter two are considered to be genuine one-offs.
Hold rating and $28.60 target retained.
Target price is $28.60 Current Price is $27.62 Difference: $0.98
If ANZ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 193.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.3, implying annual growth of -25.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 232.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.0, implying annual growth of 18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ANZ as Outperform (1) -
Ahead of its result, ANZ has revealed new one-offs that will impact upon FY16 profit, bringing the total of specified items to over $1bn, the broker notes. A change in derivative valuation methodology and restructuring charges are included in the latest additions.
The changes should ultimately lead to cost savings in futures years but the broker hopes FY16 will mark the end of such one-offs. The broker sees ANZ as well placed over the medium term. Outperform and $28.50 target retained.
Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.62 Difference: $0.88
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 189.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.3, implying annual growth of -25.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 164.00 cents and EPS of 229.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.0, implying annual growth of 18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -
Additional charges of $360m have been announced for the upcoming results, mainly to account for new methodology for the calculation of derivatives as well as restructuring charges and software capitalisation changes.
Morgan Stanley expects around an 8% downgrade to reported cash profit in the second half. The broker suspects the derivative adjustment is a one-off. Overweight retained. Sector view is In-Line. Price target is $28.50.
Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.62 Difference: $0.88
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 198.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.3, implying annual growth of -25.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 222.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.0, implying annual growth of 18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett cuts FY16 earnings estimates by 5% to $5.8bn to reflect the $360m in post-tax specific items being taken in the FY16 results. The broker's final dividend estimate remains unchanged at 80c.
The further $100m of restructuring charges following the $200m taken in the first half is expected to heighten interest in the outlook for costs at the upcoming FY16 result.
The broker retains an Accumulate rating and $31.50 target.
Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $27.62 Difference: $3.88
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 202.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.3, implying annual growth of -25.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.0, implying annual growth of 18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
The broker has upgraded FY17 price forecasts for coking coal by 23% and thermal coal by 17%. Forecast changes lead to significant earnings forecast upgrades for coal producers under coverage.
Outperform retained for BHP. Target rises to $27 from $25.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.98 Difference: $2.02
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.63, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 67.58 cents and EPS of 123.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 52.71 cents and EPS of 106.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.2, implying annual growth of -4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BKL as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse suggests investor sentiment may turn in the company's favour. There are signs that the earnings trajectory will improve over the next six months and the broker believes it would be overly bearish to extrapolate the first quarter performance.
The first quarter was affected by retailer de-stocking and a significant change in daigou purchase behaviour. Still, the broker makes major revisions to forecasts, acknowledging it over estimated the impact of operating leverage in the business.
Outperform retained. Target falls to $125 from $155.
Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $107.84 Difference: $17.16
If BKL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $118.33, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 320.00 cents and EPS of 421.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 421.0, implying annual growth of -27.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 302.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 410.00 cents and EPS of 513.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 519.0, implying annual growth of 23.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 379.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CAR as Hold (3) -
The company has signalled a negative performance at Stratton with a reduction in volume from one of its major lenders in the fourth quarter extending into the first quarter of FY17. Stratton revenue and EBITDA are expected to be substantially lower in the first half.
The lender, which accounts for around 40% of Stratton’s loan book, is being investigated by ASIC, reducing volumes. Stratton was moving customers to other lenders but, Deutsche Bank observes, the transition process has been more difficult than initially anticipated.
The broker expects an EBITDA reduction for the division of 12% in FY17 versus a previous forecast for 27% growth. All other aspects of the carsales business are affirmed as solid.
Target is reduced to $11.45 from $11.65. Hold retained.
Target price is $11.45 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: $0.4
If CAR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.13, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.1, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.1, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CAR as Outperform (1) -
Carsales' AGM featured a solid trading update but for ongoing problems at Stratton, the broker notes. Supplier-related issues mean Stratton earnings are expected to be substantially lower in the first half.
This is disappointing as management had suggested the problems would be fixed by now. The broker sees strong growth from Stratton in FY18 from a soft base. The impact on overall group earnings is modest and core businesses continue to perform well.
Outperform retained. Target falls to $13.20 from $13.40.
Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: $2.15
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.13, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 40.80 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.1, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 44.20 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.1, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CAR as Sell (5) -
Ongoing problems with a major lender has meant volume reductions for the Stratton division.
UBS had previously assumed finance EBITDA would rebound to 30% growth in FY17 but revised guidance for first half EBITDA to be substantially below FY16 suggests otherwise.
A further update is expected at the first half results. Sell rating retained. Target falls to $10.50 from $10.75.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.13, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.1, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.1, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CTD as Add (1) -
FY17 EBITDA guidance $85-90m was reiterated. Overall, the broker notes the group is trading well with a service and technological advantage that is expected to continue to disrupt the travel segment.
Add rating and $20.00 target retained.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.80 Difference: $1.2
If CTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.80, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.2, implying annual growth of 37.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.2, implying annual growth of 16.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CWN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
The shares have declined around 18% since the company disclosed that 18 staff have been detained in China. UBS suspects this event could lead to lower VIP volumes.
Despite the negative sentiment, the broker believes Crown's shares are now factoring in the known risks. In addition, the outlook in Macau has stabilised in recent months.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target slips to $12.30 from $13.10.
Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $10.65 Difference: $1.65
If CWN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.62, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.2, implying annual growth of -51.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.9, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -
Four shipments of cement were handled by Holcim through its new NZ port in September and suggest to the broker Holcim has gained market share and reduced shipping costs. This reinforces the broker's view Fletcher is at risk of market share loss and price downside in cement
Underperform and NZ$8.00 target retained.
Current Price is $9.65. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $11.73, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 37.27 cents and EPS of 58.52 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 38.20 cents and EPS of 57.12 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.7, implying annual growth of 5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates GWA as Hold (3) -
Management has noted the first quarter sales are up 2%, with revenue growth driven by bathrooms & kitchens while door & access systems declined 1%.
Regionally sales growth remains strong, with the east coast offsetting weakness in WA. A Hold rating is retained. Target is steady at $3.17.
Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.36
If GWA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 1.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of -3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates HZN as Buy (1) -
September quarter production was 13.0% below UBS estimates, the miss primarily as a result of lower production at Beibu.
The company's focus remains on extracting the remaining value from producing assets, approval of Beibu phase I and unlocking value in PNG, note the analysts.
The broker's Buy rating and 7c target are retained.
Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.031
If HZN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.07, suggesting upside of 79.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.37 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -
Macquarie bumped up its interim performance with asset sales. The extent of which was underestimated by Citi, as well as by pretty much everyone else across the market. The extent of asset sale revenue is ‘classic’ end-of-cycle, report the analysts.
Citi has been predicting for a while this is probably as good as it gets, and while profits and the share price can possibly hold up for a while, they won't be able to do so indefinitely, remains Citi's confident prediction.
Sell. Target price jumps to $67.75 from $59.
Target price is $67.75 Current Price is $81.76 Difference: minus $14.01 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $78.21, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY17:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 617.2, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 415.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 633.4, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 445.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MQG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Credit Suisse has implemented minor negative adjustments post Macquarie's interim report. The price target has been left intact at $85. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.
Macquarie did meet guidance and market expectations but the analysts find the composition of the result rather weak with net revenues buoyed by principal investment gains and lower loan impairment offsets, and there was a tax gain included.
The analysts suggest Macquarie is approaching "peak earnings".
Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $81.76 Difference: $3.24
If MQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $78.21, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 430.00 cents and EPS of 626.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 617.2, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 415.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 440.00 cents and EPS of 656.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 633.4, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 445.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates MQG as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
First half profit was slightly ahead of Deutsche Bank's forecasts while full year guidance is maintained. The broker believes while the bank continues to execute well and has levers to drive growth these factors are priced in.
The broker is also concerned about the prospect of rising global rates and removal of stimulus by central banks, suggesting more turbulent markets could on the cards.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target slips to $82.70 from $84.00.
Target price is $82.70 Current Price is $81.76 Difference: $0.94
If MQG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $78.21, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 420.00 cents and EPS of 614.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 617.2, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 415.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 440.00 cents and EPS of 637.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 633.4, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 445.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley observes the gains on sale boosted the first half result, which was ahead of expectations. FY17 guidance appears conservative but the broker notes underlying revenue trends were weaker.
Earnings are expected to peak but Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating, given the prospect of upgrades to estimates in the second half, a diversified business mix and a 5.5% dividend yield.
In-Line sector view retained. Target is raised to $75 from $74.
Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $81.76 Difference: minus $6.76 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $78.21, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 440.00 cents and EPS of 613.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 617.2, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 415.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 440.00 cents and EPS of 595.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 633.4, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 445.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates MQG as Hold (3) -
Morgans suspects the first half result was softer than the headline suggests, benefitting from a lower tax rate and strong cost control.
The broker likes the longer-term outlook but suspects the stock is now trading close to fair value and that earnings risk could still emanate from an uncertain macro backdrop.
Morgans awaits a more attractive entry point. Target ticks up to $77.05 from $74.85. Hold retained.
Target price is $77.05 Current Price is $81.76 Difference: minus $4.71 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $78.21, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 435.00 cents and EPS of 617.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 617.2, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 415.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 460.00 cents and EPS of 652.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 633.4, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 445.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MQG as Hold (3) -
First half earnings were 8% above Ord Minnett's estimate with the main driver being significant gains from asset realisation. Given the current valuations of real assets co-invested the broker believes it makes sense at this point in the cycle to realise embedded gains in the portfolio.
The broker observes this may mean the quality of earnings appears to deteriorate as the earnings outlook is more dependent on transactions.
The broker retains a Hold rating and $78 target.
Target price is $78.00 Current Price is $81.76 Difference: minus $3.76 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $78.21, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 390.00 cents and EPS of 608.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 617.2, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 415.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 609.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 633.4, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 445.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MQG as Buy (1) -
First half results were ahead of expectations. Costs were the most disappointing element for UBS. Commentary remains optimistic but the broker suspects the bank is becoming increasingly cautious as it is selling assets and total equity investments have fallen $4.7bn from $5.5bn over the year.
If there is a sustained sell-off in bonds UBS suspects the revenue environment is likely to become increasingly challenging, although solid client activity may help, and the bank appears to be preparing for a more difficult environment. Buy rating retained. Target is $82.
Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $81.76 Difference: $0.24
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $78.21, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 375.00 cents and EPS of 625.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 617.2, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 415.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 651.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 633.4, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 445.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NCM as Add (1) -
September quarter production remains in line with FY17 guidance for 2.35-2.6m ozs while copper is also on track.
Morgans believes the company has positioned itself to perform in either a high or low gold price environment.
The broker retains an Add rating and raises the target to $27.05 from $27.02.
Target price is $27.05 Current Price is $21.42 Difference: $5.63
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.23, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.9, implying annual growth of 59.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.1, implying annual growth of 11.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NHC as Outperform (1) -
The broker has upgraded FY17 price forecasts for coking coal by 23% and thermal coal by 17%. Forecast changes lead to significant earnings forecast upgrades for coal producers under coverage.
Outperform retained for New Hope. Target rises to $2.10 from $1.70.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.28
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of 2258.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -16.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NST as Underperform (5) -
September quarter operations were weaker than expected. Tanami production is pushed back by 12 months. The cash balance and zero debt provide for corporate opportunities to add longevity to the portfolio, Credit Suisse believes.
The broker retains a $3.75 target and Underperform rating.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.97 cents and EPS of 39.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of 59.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.48 cents and EPS of 51.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.2, implying annual growth of 27.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NST as Sell (5) -
September quarter production was 12% below Deutsche Bank's forecasts, largely because of problems with a pebble crusher at Jundee.
The broker notes the company now has $315m cash on hand and this should reach $412m by the end of FY17. The company is expected to continue delivering on exploration and has opportunities for internal growth but the broker wants a medium-term growth strategy before becoming more positive.
Deutsche Bank retains a Sell rating based on valuation. Target is $3.50.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of 59.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.2, implying annual growth of 27.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -
Northern Star's Sep Q production was weaker than forecast given lower throughput at Jundee. The broker nevertheless expects lost ground to be recovered and sees the potential for a production guidance beat.
Exploration and organic growth remain the key focus for the company. Outperform retained, target falls to $4.90 from $5.00.
Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.83
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 34.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of 59.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 54.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.2, implying annual growth of 27.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates OGC as Hold (3) -
September quarter production results revealed the company continues to hit its targets. Haile will be commissioned by the end of this year.
Deutsche Bank likes the operational excellence and quality assets despite the uncertainty in the Philippines and retains a Hold rating. Target is $4.30.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.23
If OGC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 5.41 cents and EPS of 31.09 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.41 cents and EPS of 47.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.1, implying annual growth of 521.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORE as Buy (1) -
The company produced 3,013t of lithium carbonate in the September quarter, 3% below Deutsche Bank's forecasts.
Orocobre also took the opportunity to sell tonnage above production to satisfy longer-dated contracts, which affects the average realised price and means fewer contracted volumes in coming quarters.
Cash flow is expected to further increase as contract prices improve and the broker suspects the business may have finally turned the corner. Buy rating retained. Target unchanged at $4.30.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $1.12
If ORE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 94.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ORE as Outperform (1) -
Orocobre's Sep Q report shows lower than expected prices and rising costs. But with lithium prices remaining elevated, gross margins of 60% plus were still achieved, the broker notes.
It was an operationally disappointing quarter but the broker believes strong margins on solid prices will mean no further capital has to be raised for the completion of phase one. Outperform retained, target falls to $4.20 from $4.30.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $1.02
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 94.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -
The broker has upgraded FY17 price forecasts for coking coal by 23% and thermal coal by 17%. Forecast changes lead to significant earnings forecast upgrades for coal producers under coverage.
Outperform retained for Rio. Target rises to $64 from $63.
Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $53.75 Difference: $10.25
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $55.79, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 148.67 cents and EPS of 282.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 288.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 127.04 cents and EPS of 252.74 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 305.4, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -
The broker has upgraded FY17 price forecasts for coking coal by 23% and thermal coal by 17%. Forecast changes lead to significant earnings forecast upgrades for coal producers under coverage.
Outperform retained for South32. Target rises to $3.30 from $2.90.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.77
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 23.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.16 cents and EPS of 17.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of -24.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SGR as Buy (1) -
The company's trading update showed some underwhelming numbers, but Citi analysts see no change to the H2 growth outlook. They estimate VIP revenue is down 4-5% YoY YTD, which is deemed not too bad, given circumstances (Crown in China).
Mild cuts to estimates have been implemented. Citi believes investors are simply pricing in too much potential bad news. Buy rating retained. Price target falls to $6.35 from $6.50.
Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $1.35
If SGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 33.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SGR as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse continues to hold the view that the sell off in the shares was an over-reaction to the news about the detention of Crown ((CWN)) staff in China.
The company has clarified that VIP is 16% of EBITDA, which the broker calculates is less than $100m. Around 80% of the VIP volume is sourced through junkets and the company has no offices in China.
Credit Suisse models 5% erosion in VIP in FY17 and 10% in FY18, assuming the Crown problems have some impact.
Outperform rating and $6.50 target retained.
Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $1.5
If SGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 27.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 29.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SGR as Buy (1) -
The trading update is viewed negatively, albeit priced into the stock following the disappointing updates provided by competitors.
Deutsche Bank expects earnings growth will be driven by the expansion of the main gaming floor at Sydney, the new hotel tower on the Gold Coast and the re-launch of the loyalty program.
Buy rating and $6.25 target retained.
Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $1.25
If SGR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SGR as Overweight (1) -
First quarter revenues were soft, although Morgan Stanley believes these were better than what headlines and the weak sentiment suggested. While the VIP outlook is justifiably weak, the mass business appears to the broker to be in good shape.
The broker considers the longer-dated risk/reward compelling and retains an Overweight rating and In-Line industry view. Target is lowered to $5.73 from $6.50.
Target price is $5.73 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.73
If SGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.70 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates SGR as Add (1) -
The company's update on trading in the year to date provided no specific guidance on the impact of the detention of Crown ((CWN)) staff in China, other than to say VIP is less than 30% of group revenue and 80% of VIP revenues come through junkets out of Asia.
International VIP rates are showing "satisfactory volumes". Morgans believes the stock has been oversold and represents good value. Add rating retained. Target slips to $6.33 from $6.82.
Target price is $6.33 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $1.33
If SGR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SGR as Buy (1) -
UBS believes the drop in VIP volumes in the wake of the detention of Crown ((CWN)) employees is unlikely to be permanent.
The broker assumes a 30% reduction in VIP volumes over the next 12 months followed by 6% growth thereafter. The company's capex outlook is largely centred on the mass market.
As a result, lower VIP volumes are unlikely to create a material change in strategy for Brisbane or the additional hotels in Sydney and Gold Coast.
The broker retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $5.78 from $6.60.
Target price is $5.78 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.78
If SGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates SVY as Add (1) -
After a drilling hiatus on its Victorian gold-copper tenements, awaiting the release of $1.0m in co-funding from the Victorian government, exploration is set to resume.
Morgans retains a 36c target and envisages numerous catalysts which could add value and lift the share price to the target. The broker retains an Add rating.
Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.17
If SVY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TLS as Neutral (3) -
NBN payments will continue to underpin Telstra's 31c dividend, the broker notes, until they don't. Post NBN, the broker believes the dividend can be sustained but there will be little margin for error.
The dividend will become an area of increasing investor focus, the broker suggests. Neutral retained, target falls to $5.40 from $5.65.
Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.95 Difference: $0.45
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 30.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.4, implying annual growth of -27.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 30.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WES as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett has upgraded to Accumulate from Hold following recent falls in the share price. The broker notes the Coles approach to competition is aggressive, yet remains rational.
While Target's turnaround remains difficult the broker envisages further strong growth in Kmart and this makes for an overall neutral view on discount department stores.
Meanwhile, earnings in resources are expected to increase significantly. Target is $45.
Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $40.32 Difference: $4.68
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $41.37, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 205.00 cents and EPS of 252.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.9, implying annual growth of 571.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 215.00 cents and EPS of 266.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.6, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 213.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WHC as Underperform (5) -
The broker has upgraded FY17 price forecasts for coking coal by 23% and thermal coal by 17%. Forecast changes lead to significant earnings forecast upgrades for coal producers under coverage.
Underperform retained for Whitehaven. Target rises to $2.80 from $1.50.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 1276.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.7, implying annual growth of -24.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates WOW as No Rating (-1) -
The analysts note Woolworths' market update revealed the supermarket division returned to positive comparable store sales growth with 0.7% for the quarter. Big W and the NZ operations remain in the negative.
Also, the analysts observe Woolworths continues to experience lower items per basket, and it is still losing market share, albeit at much reduced pace. Citi remains under research restriction.
Current Price is $24.23. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $22.16, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY17:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.9, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates WOW as Neutral (3) -
Australian food sales accelerated in the first quarter but Credit Suisse suspects the market is getting ahead of earnings.
Despite improved sales momentum, the broker forecasts a $280m decline in EBIT in FY17 from annualising price reductions made in H2 FY16, higher labour cost and bonus accrual.
Neutral and $24.50 target retained.
Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $24.23 Difference: $0.27
If WOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.16, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 78.23 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 86.56 cents and EPS of 124.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.9, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates WOW as Hold (3) -
First quarter sales provided some evidence for Deutsche Bank that actions taken in the Australian supermarket business are delivering benefits.
The broker expects the supermarket will exit the first quarter with similar, or even better, sales growth versus Coles ((WES)). That said the broker believes the market is being too optimistic on FY17 margins. Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $24 from $22.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $24.23 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.16, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 123.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.9, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WOW as Underperform (5) -
Woolworths' Sep Q report featured a strong improvement in supermarket sales, Liquor & Hotels in line and Big W and NZ disappointing. While a supermarket turnaround is encouraging, industry feedback suggests competition is only becoming more aggressive, the broker notes.
The broker believes the market is pricing in an "aspirational" earnings recovery in Australian food which is seen as unlikely. Underperform retained, target rises to $20.56 from $18.85.
Target price is $20.56 Current Price is $24.23 Difference: minus $3.67 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.16, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 80.60 cents and EPS of 120.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 84.50 cents and EPS of 127.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.9, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley believes the market has prematurely priced in a turnaround, given the significant level of price and promotional investment that is needed to drive revenue growth. First quarter sales were better than expected but the broker remains sceptical.
The broker believes that, as investors increasingly focus on first half earnings, the shares will de-rate. The target is lifted to $20 from $17 to reflect an improving sales performance and greater sustainability of food margins.
The broker retains an Underweight rating and In-Line industry view.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $24.23 Difference: minus $4.23 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.16, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 102.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.9, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WOW as No Rating (-1) -
September quarter sales exhibited an improving trend with like-for-like sales growth of 0.7%.
Ord Minnett is currently restricted on providing a target or recommendation at present.
Current Price is $24.23. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $22.16, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 97.00 cents and EPS of 135.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.9, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WOW as Sell (5) -
Woolworths first quarter sales were in line while Australian food like-for-like sales growth of 0.7% was better than expected.
UBS notes gradually improving trends around customer satisfaction and in-store execution. Price deflation remains elevated and this creates risks to margin forecasts, in the broker's view.
UBS retains a Sell rating and reduces the target to $19.10 from $19.30.
Target price is $19.10 Current Price is $24.23 Difference: minus $5.13 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.16, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.9, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AMC - | AMCOR | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $14.65 |
| AMP - | AMP | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.68 |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.68 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.68 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $4.68 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.68 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.68 | ||
| ANZ - | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $27.62 |
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $27.62 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $27.62 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $27.62 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $27.62 | ||
| BHP - | BHP BILLITON | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $22.98 |
| BKL - | BLACKMORES | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $107.84 |
| CAR - | CARSALES.COM | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $11.05 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.05 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $11.05 | ||
| CTD - | CORPORATE TRAVEL | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $18.80 |
| CWN - | CROWN RESORTS | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $10.65 |
| FBU - | FLETCHER BUILDING | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.65 |
| GWA - | GWA GROUP | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.81 |
| HZN - | HORIZON OIL | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $0.04 |
| MQG - | MACQUARIE GROUP | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $81.76 |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $81.76 | ||
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $81.76 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $81.76 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $81.76 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $81.76 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $81.76 | ||
| NCM - | NEWCREST MINING | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $21.42 |
| NHC - | NEW HOPE CORP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.82 |
| NST - | NORTHERN STAR | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.07 |
| Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.07 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.07 | ||
| OGC - | OCEANAGOLD | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.07 |
| ORE - | OROCOBRE | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.18 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.18 | ||
| RIO - | RIO TINTO | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $53.75 |
| S32 - | SOUTH32 | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.53 |
| SGR - | STAR ENTERTAINMENT | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.00 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.00 | ||
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $5.00 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.00 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.00 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.00 | ||
| SVY - | STAVELY MINERALS | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.19 |
| TLS - | TELSTRA CORP | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.95 |
| WES - | WESFARMERS | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $40.32 |
| WHC - | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.07 |
| WOW - | WOOLWORTHS | No Rating - Citi | Overnight Price $24.23 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $24.23 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $24.23 | ||
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $24.23 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $24.23 | ||
| No Rating - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $24.23 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $24.23 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 26 |
| 2. Accumulate | 3 |
| 3. Hold | 16 |
| 5. Sell | 9 |
Monday 31 October 2016
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