Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates ANG as Buy (1) -

Austin Engineering has completed its first shipment of truck trays from its Indonesian facility to the Pilbara in Western Australia.

Shaw reports that freight costs have returned to pre-pandemic levels, and that shipping directly from Indonesia to Port Hedland avoids road haulage fro Perth, delivering environmental, safety and cost benefits.

Shaw and Partners believes this augurs well for the company and vindicates its global strategy.

Buy rating and 45c target price retained.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.07
If ANG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans feels the market has been overly negative in focusing on government commentary from China around 2023 steel curbs to support emissions reduction, and meaningfully upgrades its short-term price forecasts for iron ore.

The broker expects iron ore demand will remain broadly stable while expected supply may be at risk. It’s thought this view, if correct, may lead to an upturn in market sentiment.

While the analysts are generally bullish on commodity fundamentals, downgrades are expected to emerge on opex for some key stocks.

The broker's rating for BHP Group is upgraded to Add from Hold after the the target was increased to $51.10 from $46.70 on the increased iron ore price forecasts.

Target price is $51.10 Current Price is $46.58 Difference: $4.52
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.23, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Sell (5) -

UBS is cautious about iron ore prices as this commodity is most exposed to China and therefore leveraged to a stronger-than-expected recovery in the property sector.

Fundamentals are expected to weaken in the second half as supply is sustained while demand from China's steel production moderates.

Sell rating maintained. Target is raised to $40 from $39 for BHP Group.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $46.58 Difference: minus $6.58 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.23, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -

UBS trims its forecast for 2023 Brent crude to US$88/bbl to reflect a more modest fall in Russian oil production amid persistent concerns about economic growth.

Revised oil and LNG prices mean reductions of -1-13% to earnings across the broker's Australian energy coverage over 2023-24.

UBS retains a Buy rating and $1.75 target for Beach  Energy.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.25
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COE as Buy (1) -

Cooper Energy's March-quarter production and sales broadly met Bell Potter's forecasts, and the broker observes the company is on-track to meet downgraded FY23 guidance.

But for now, the energy sector is awaiting the Federal Government's gas Code of Conduct and associated pricing mechanisms, expected in the June quarter, and the broker observes a final investment decision on the company's OP3D project is pending the announcement.

Meawhile, the broker expects further reduction in FY24 Gippsland Basin production. EPS forecasts rise 1% in FY23; and fall -25% in FY24; and -1% in FY25.

Despite several moving parts and an uncertain outlook, the broker retains its Buy recommendation based on the company's leverage to spot gas prices. Target price rises to 20c from 19c.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.03
If COE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Neutral (3) -

March quarter production was in line with expectations. Macquarie expects there will be clarity on government intervention in the gas market soon. Industry expectations have shifted to a less pessimistic stance, the broker suggests.

Considerable value could be unlocked at the Otway joint venture if regulatory outcomes are benign and a new partner takes Mitsui out of the equation, Macquarie adds. Neutral rating and $0.19 target maintained.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.02
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COE as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a steady 3Q of production for Cooper Energy, as well as an in-line realised gas price and a slight beat on sales.

Management provided no guidance, but the broker suspects FY23 guidance remains on-track.

The share price is at attractive levels, suggests the analyst due to uncertainty created by Federal government policy changes and a slow turnaround for Orbost.

The Add rating and 26c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.09
If COE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has a mixed outlook for coal. Thermal coal prices are finding a floor after sharp correction in 2023 and a power shortage is expected to tighten the market in the northern autumn.

Metallurgical coal on the other hand is expected to hold up above US$220/t into the medium term. Coal supply is expected to recover in 2023 once weather disruptions abate.

The broker upgrades Coronado Global Resources to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $2.00 from $1.85.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.375
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 32.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Outperform (1) -

Core Lithium has significantly upgraded its resource for Finniss, adding in new deposits. The total resource is now 30.6mt at 1.31% lithium oxide. The 2023 drilling program has commenced with further increases expected.

Macquarie adds to the mine life of Carlton by one year to incorporate the larger resource, noting there are now six deposits with resources that have been declared but are not yet included in the development scenario. Outperform maintained. Target rises to $1.20 from $1.10.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.215
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.95, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DEG as Neutral (3) -

UBS still favours gold, as it is able to benefit from falling US real rates. The broker updates its commodity price deck, with gold miners experiencing the most change, given a long-term price forecast of US$1600/oz.

UBS remains attracted to the cash flow generated by the gold miners and low capital expenditure profiles. De Grey Mining remains Neutral rated. Target is raised to $1.80 from $1.55.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.215
If DEG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DRR as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS is cautious about iron ore prices as this commodity is most exposed to China and therefore leveraged to a stronger-than-expected recovery in the property sector.

Fundamentals are expected to weaken in the second half as supply is sustained while demand from China's steel production moderates.

UBS downgrades Deterra Royalties to Sell from Neutral. Target is raised to $4.40 from $4.35.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett revises its June-quarter outlook for Australian Goldminers and FX and commodity prices.

Gold sentiment has turned the corner, observes the broker, Ord Minnett believing the tempering of US Federal Reserve rate expectations, combined with likely persistent inflation, bodes well for the yellow metal and gold equities. 

The broker believes the Fed is now behind the curve on inflation and will continue to raise rates later this year. 

The broker posits that the AUD will protect ASX gold equities regardless of USD gold price movements.

Ord Minnett observes the market is continuing to price in copper-price strength and it is now gaining defensive characteristics as the transition sets in.

Evolution Mining is downgraded to Lighten from Hold, the broker citing recent share price strength, a stretched balance sheet (34% gearing vs 13% for peers), and Red Lake ramp-up issues. Target price falls to $2.60 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

UBS still favours gold, as it is able to benefit from falling US real rates. The broker updates its commodity price deck, with gold miners experiencing the most change, given a long-term price forecast of US$1600/oz.

UBS remains attracted to the cash flow generated by the gold miners and low capital expenditure profiles. Evolution Mining remains Sell rated. Target is raised to $3.15 from $2.65.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVS as Buy (1) -

EnviroSuite has added $2m of annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the March quarter, missing Bell Potter's forecast of $3m.

The company also lost three of five sites with the Australian Defence Force, which dragged on the ARR total.

On the upside, strong projects were recorded and management guided to further strength in the June quarter and a return to adjusted earnings (EBITDA) profitability in FY23.

EPS forecasts fall -4% in FY23; -6% in FY24; and -8% in FY25.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to 20c from 21c.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.095
If EVS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Reduce (5) -

Morgans feels the market has been overly negative in focusing on government commentary from China around 2023 steel curbs to support emissions reduction, and meaningfully upgrades its short-term price forecasts for iron ore.

The broker expects iron ore demand will remain broadly stable while expected supply may be at risk. It’s thought this view, if correct, may lead to an upturn in market sentiment.

While the analysts are generally bullish on commodity fundamentals, downgrades are expected to emerge on opex for some key stocks.

Morgans notes Fortescue Metals continues to push aggressively outside its established core competencies and retains its Reduce rating. The long-term competitiveness of the company's lower grade iron ore is also considered a concern.

The target rises to $18.20 from $16.10 on the the broker's higher iron ore price forecasts.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: minus $4.38 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.76, suggesting downside of -25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

UBS is cautious about iron ore prices as this commodity is most exposed to China and therefore leveraged to a stronger-than-expected recovery in the property sector.

Fundamentals are expected to weaken in the second half as supply is sustained while demand from China's steel production moderates.

Sell rating maintained. Target is raised to $19.80 from $18.40 for Fortescue Metals.

Target price is $19.80 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: minus $2.78 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.76, suggesting downside of -25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GEN as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans feels the market has been overly negative in focusing on government commentary from China around 2023 steel curbs to support emissions reduction, and meaningfully upgrades its short-term price forecasts for iron ore.

The broker expects iron ore demand will remain broadly stable while expected supply may be at risk. It’s thought this view, if correct, may lead to an upturn in market sentiment.

While the analysts are generally bullish on commodity fundamentals, downgrades are expected to emerge on opex for some key stocks.

Morgans sees attractive upside on offer for Genmin and raises its target to 76c fom 52c due to the iron ore price forecast upgrades. 

The broker is comfortable with progress on the company's Baniaka Iron Ore Project in eastern Gabon though reminds investors of risks associated with an earlier early-stage iron ore aspirant in a higher risk region. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.58
If GEN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 322% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -

UBS still favours gold, as it is able to benefit from falling US real rates. The broker updates its commodity price deck, with gold miners experiencing the most change, given a long-term price forecast of US$1600/oz.

UBS remains attracted to the cash flow generated by the gold miners and low capital expenditure profiles. Gold Road Resources remains Buy rated. Target is raised to $2.35 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.565
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

While flows in the 3Q again missed Citi's expectations, a stronger market movement pushed funds under administration (FUA) up to meet the broker's forecast.

In reaction to 3Q flows, the analyst lowers its FY23 flow forecast, though raises FY24 estimates to allow for the $4bn transition from Equity Trustees ((EQT)) starting in the 2Q of FY24. FY25 forecast flows are also raised by 3%.

The target rises to $30.65 from $30.30. Neutral.

Target price is $30.65 Current Price is $28.15 Difference: $2.5
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.98, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

Hub24 expects large transitions from Equity Trustees ((EQT)) of around $4bn over the next 18 months. Funds under administration guidance for FY24 is unchanged at $80-89bn.

Macquarie incorporates the transition into forecasts, assessing the revenue margin of the transition is in the "mid 20s". Therefore the mandate is estimated to add $10m in revenue and $4-5bn in EBITDA.

Meanwhile, retail flows are showing signs of weakness and likely to be subdued in the beginning of the June quarter. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $33.10 from $32.60.

Target price is $33.10 Current Price is $28.15 Difference: $4.95
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.98, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Add (1) -

Net inflows of $1.9bn and around $1.7bn from a positive market move helped Hub24 report $59.4bn in funds under administration (FUA) for the 3Q, explains Morgans.

Management reiterated the FY24-end Platform FUA target (ex PARS) of $80-89bn.

While the broker still sees strong medium-term growth for Hub24, longer-term net flow assumptions are lowered as core inflows across the specialist platforms industry have slowed. 

The slowing comes from a combination of uncertain investment markets and some funds moving off platform to term deposits, in what the analyst thinks may be partly structural changes to flows.

The target falls to $31.10 from $31.90. Add.

Target price is $31.10 Current Price is $28.15 Difference: $2.95
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.98, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24's March-quarter result met Ord Minnett's forecasts, as net flows continued to soften (funds under administration rose 6.5% in the quarter).

Ord Minnett believes the recent agreement with Equity Trustees ((EQT)) improves flow visibility for the next year and a half and does not affect Hub's market opportunity given structural changes in the sector. 

The broker expects softening net flows will still deliver strong revenue and long-term EPS growth. EPS forecasts fall -1% over the forecast period.

Buy rating and $33 target price retained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $28.15 Difference: $4.85
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.98, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24's March-quarter net flows (-29%) appears to have fallen shy of Shaw and Partners forecast, but the broker describes the result as sector-leading against listed peers.

The fall was driven by -39% in gross outflows, while gross inflows largely held their ground (down -6%).

The broker expects outflows to ease as consumer confidence returns and retains its convinction that independent platforms will dominate the investment administration space in the long term.

Meanwhile, the company has signed a heads of agreement to provide custodial platform administration and technology solutions for Equity Trustees ((EQT)) and AET trustee service clients, yielding $3.5bn in FY25, and 0.5bn in FY25, says the broker.

Shaw and Partners considers the deal to be extremely accretive and raises FY25 EPS forecasts 3%, despite net flow movements, and suspects more transitions may be in the wings.

Funds Under Administration guidance has been maintained. Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $38.50 from $37.50.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $28.15 Difference: $9.85
If HUB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.98, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Key numbers were below UBS forecasts in what was expected to be a soft March quarter.

While Hub24 is not considered resistant to the headwinds facing the industry, the broker considers the outlook for flows in the longer term can be driven by lifting the company's low penetration.

This is therefore a growth opportunity that is within management's control. UBS retains a Buy ratting and reduces the target to $32.00 from $33.50.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $28.15 Difference: $3.85
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.98, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPH as Hold (3) -

Following an update by IPH, Morgans feels impacts from the cyber attack look contained. The company returns to business as usual along with enhanced security measures.

Management noted business disruptions have contributed to a budget shortfall of around -$4.4m in revenue in March, though a material portion can be recovered as delayed processing or invoicing occurs over time.

The target falls to $9.20 from $9.65 after the broker factors in the lost revenue. The Add rating is retained with Morgans not expecting any longer-term negative impacts.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $1.1
If IPH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.74, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LAU as Add (1) -

A  consolidating market following the failure of major competitor Scott’s Refrigerated Logistics has led to additional work for Lindsay Australia, explains Morgans, as well as an upgrade to FY23 underlying earnings (EBITDA) guidance.

Management confirmed the company's rail capacity has been boosted by the aquistion of assets and equipment from its former competitor.

The broker's earnings forecasts rise by 24.5% in FY23 to align with new guidance, and by 25% in FY24-25 on upside from the new rail assets.

The target rises to $1.40 from $1.07 and the Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.165
If LAU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOV as Outperform (1) -

In analysing volumes and foot traffic in March-April, Macquarie notes underlying demand is soft, despite the "re-opening" during the quarter supporting trading in Australasia for Lovisa Holdings as it cycled the pandemic/floods.

Regardless of the weakness, Macquarie's preference remains with retailers such as Lovisa Holdings in the current climate because of its scale, competitive product, strong balance sheet and the exposure to low price points/youth.

Outperform maintained. Target rises to $35.70 from $27.10.

Target price is $35.70 Current Price is $25.30 Difference: $10.4
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.35, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MGR as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Mirvac Group to Accumulate from Buy, the broker expecting an easing in residential earnings from FY24 as higher interest rates, lower house prices and subdued wages growth take their toll on residential housing.

On the upside, the broker expects the company will gain market share during this period, thanks to its scale and strong land bank.

Ord Minnett also expects a recovery in Mirvac Group's commercial property portfolio and suspects retail and office sectors have likely bottomed.

Target price is steady at $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.83
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Add (1) -

Morgans feels the market has been overly negative in focusing on government commentary from China around 2023 steel curbs to support emissions reduction, and meaningfully upgrades its short-term price forecasts for iron ore.

The broker expects iron ore demand will remain broadly stable while expected supply may be at risk. It’s thought this view, if correct, may lead to an upturn in market sentiment.

While the analysts are generally bullish on commodity fundamentals, downgrades are expected to emerge on opex for some key stocks.

Higher iron ore price assumptions were previously factored into Mineral Resources forecasts, so the broker's target only moves to $106 from $105. The Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $106.00 Current Price is $82.11 Difference: $23.89
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $96.56, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

UBS still favours gold, as it is able to benefit from falling US real rates. The broker updates its commodity price deck, with gold miners experiencing the most change, given a long-term price forecast of US$1600/oz.

UBS remains attracted to the cash flow generated by the gold miners and low capital expenditure profiles. Newcrest Mining is Neutral rated. Target is raised to $31.15 from $25.95.

Target price is $31.15 Current Price is $29.23 Difference: $1.92
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.75, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Navigator Global Investments' March-quarter update appears to have largely met Ord Minnett's forecasts, the company logging strong flows in its Lighthouse Partners Hedge Fund (up $500m), while the broader strategic portfolio rose to US$9bn from US$8.8bn.

Given recent acquisitions, the broker spies strong earnings potential and appreciates the diversity of alternative asset managers.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $1.90 from $1.95.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.875
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS still favours gold, as it is able to benefit from falling US real rates. The broker updates its commodity price deck, with gold miners experiencing the most change, given a long-term price forecast of US$1600/oz.

UBS remains attracted to the cash flow generated by the gold miners and low capital expenditure profiles. Nevertheless, Northern Star Resources is downgraded to Sell from Neutral based on valuation. Target is raised to $13.00 from $11.30.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $14.03 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.96, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PEB as Speculative Hold (3) -

Pacific Edge's total laboratory throughput in FY23 outpaced Bell Potter's forecast thanks to strong March-quarter US testing.

Meanwhile, unique ordering clinician has shown a steady upward trajectory (14,000 urologists in the US); and Novitas must finalise or withdraw its proposed Local Coverage Determination, which supports the removal of CMS coverage for CXbladder Detect &Monitor by July 23.

Speculative Hold rating and 50c target price retained, the CMS determination being critical.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.12
If PEB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PLT as Buy (1) -

Plenti Group's March-quarter result met Shaw and Partners' forecasts with the company outpacing on milestone completion.

Originations (down quarter on quarter) showed strength in March and April, suggesting strong June-quarter momentum, says the broker, and the loan book rose in the March quarter.

Meanwhile, the company has met March-half guidance, and full year results are scheduled for May 24.

Buy rating and $1.36 target price retained.

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.98
If PLT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 258% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Buy (1) -

Praemium's March-quarter platform funds under administration appears to have pleased Ord Minnett, despite weaker than forecast net flows arising from lacklustre investor sentiment.

The sales of the company's international business has simplified the investment case, observes the broker, and debt has been repaid, raising the prospect of corporate interest.

EPS forecasts fall -1% and -2% for FY23 to FY25 to reflect weaker flows.

Buy rating and $1.10 target price are retained, the broker citing funds growth, a supportive cash account balance and customer satisfaction/retention.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.375
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley prefers the listed insurers to private hospitals, expecting structurally lower claims expenses on exit from the pandemic. Ramsay Health Care faces several challenges including Ramsay Sante and pressures from labour costs.

Morgan Stanley explores the notion that Ramsay Sante can be offloaded to pay down debt and has analysed a range of hypothetical scenarios to assess the impact on the company's earnings from a possible change in approach.

In summary, the broker decides to downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target is reduced to $60.60 from $67.10. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $60.60 Current Price is $66.25 Difference: minus $5.65 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $68.83, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Morgans feels the market has been overly negative in focusing on government commentary from China around 2023 steel curbs to support emissions reduction, and meaningfully upgrades its short-term price forecasts for iron ore.

The broker expects iron ore demand will remain broadly stable while expected supply may be at risk. It’s thought this view, if correct, may lead to an upturn in market sentiment.

While the analysts are generally bullish on commodity fundamentals, downgrades are expected to emerge on opex for some key stocks.

The Hold rating is retained for Rio Tinto, given shares are trading close to the new target of $117, up from $110. The company is also seen to be more exposed to cost pressures than BHP Group.

Target price is $117.00 Current Price is $121.84 Difference: minus $4.84 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $113.36, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Equal-weight (3) -

Ahead of the March quarter update, Morgan Stanley is focused on the outlook for the supply chain, operating leverage and demand from the rest of the world. The broker estimates group revenue of US$1.72bn.

US device revenue stands out and the broker envisages elevated levels will be maintained. Operating leverage is still not obvious, not to the broker anyway.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry view: In-line. Price target is $30.80.

Target price is $30.80 Current Price is $33.36 Difference: minus $2.56 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.98, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RMY as Speculative Buy (1) -

RMA Global's March-quarter update appears to have pleased Bell Potter, US claimed profiles rising 6.4% on the December and US reviews rising 97% year on year despite a fall in housing prices.

Net cash flows of -$0.4m were up $0.4m year on year and the company finished the quarter with no debt and $6.8m in the kitty.

The company refocused its cost base to higher margin subscription revenues in the quarter (US subscription revenue rose 82% year on year).

All up, the company has signed 865,000 active agents onto its platform, and the broker believes this represents a strong opportunity for conversion to subscriptions.

Speculative Buy recommendation retained. Target price rises to 21c from 20c.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.09
If RMY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RPL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of boutique asset manager Regal Partners with a Buy rating and $3.71 target price.

Regal Partners held $5.5bn of funds under management at the end of March and is enjoying positive net inflows, observes the broker. It is diversified, holding 27 funds and is highly profitable.

Bell Potter observes that while an entrepreneurial culture abounds, 80% of the stock is held by insiders, which equates to low liquidity, and key man risk is also an issue.

Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.43
If RPL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Buy (1) -

Regis Resources' preliminary March-quarter gold production report disappointed Bell Potter's forecasts, due to a slower than expected ramp-up up at Garden Well, wet weather, unscheduled mill maintenance and a weak contribution from Tropicana.

Management downgraded FY23 guidance and the broker says the result has likely severely dented market confidence.

Bell Potter finds little relief in the result, noting it is the company's weakest FY23 quarter to date, mining issues hitting just as the rising gold price had offered some light and permitting of McPhillamys had buoyed hopes. 

EPS forecasts fall -83% for FY23; -25% for FY24; and -13% for FY25.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $2.77 from $2.88.

Target price is $2.77 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.61
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

UBS still favours gold, as it is able to benefit from falling US real rates. The broker updates its commodity price deck, with gold miners experiencing the most change, given a long-term price forecast of US$1600/oz.

UBS remains attracted to the cash flow generated by the gold miners and low capital expenditure profiles. Regis Resources is Neutral rated and the target is raised to $2.35 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.19
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett revises its June-quarter outlook for Australian Goldminers and FX and commodity prices.

Gold sentiment has turned the corner, observes the broker, believing the tempering of US Federal Reserve rate expectations, combined with likely persistent inflation, bodes well for the yellow metal and gold equities. 

The broker suspects the Fed is now behind the curve on inflation and will continue to raise rates later this year. 

Ord Minnett posits that the AUD will protect ASX gold equities regardless of USD gold price movements and observes the market is continuing to price in copper optimism and that the metal is now gaining defensive characteristics as the transition sets in.

St. Barbara is downgraded to Lighten from Hold after the company rejigged its deal with Genesis Minerals ((GMD)). The latter will now buy Lenora for $600m, paying $370m cash, $170m scrip and $60m contingent scrip. 

Ord Minnett considers the deal to be fair but sees few upside catalysts from here. Target price falls to 48c from 70c.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: minus $0.065 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting upside of 71.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes base metals have compelling fundamentals and capital deployment is unlikely to be sufficient to match the demand growth over the medium term. This is supported by the energy transition.

 Modest short-term weakness is considered a buying opportunity for copper/aluminium/zinc.

The broker retains a Neutral rating for Sandfire Resources and raises the target to $8.00 from $6.40.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.01 Difference: $0.99
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKT as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades SKY Network Television to Hold from Accumulate.

While the broker observes the company has suffered structural pressures arising from increased broadband penetration (which undercut Sky's satellite platform) and impact operating metrics, Ord Minnett believes the worse may now be over and expects earnings have stabilised.

Target price is steady at $2.75.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $0.3
If SKT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SSM as Neutral (3) -

Service Stream has secured an extension to its N2P evolution agreement with the NBN as well as an additional program that is expected to generate around $240m in additional revenue. The development further strengthens the company's telco segment, Macquarie assesses.

This strength is in contrast to the utility segment which has had several disruptions which causes the broker to be cautious. Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $0.69 from $0.67.

Target price is $0.69 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.03
If SSM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SSR as Buy (1) -

UBS still favours gold, as it is able to benefit from falling US real rates. The broker updates its commodity price deck, with gold miners experiencing the most change, given a long-term price forecast of US$1600/oz.

UBS remains attracted to the cash flow generated by the gold miners and low capital expenditure profiles.

Buy rating retained for SSR Mining and the target rises to $26.90 from $23.50.

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $23.25 Difference: $3.65
If SSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

UBS trims its forecast for 2023 Brent crude to US$88/bbl to reflect a more modest fall in Russian oil production amid persistent concerns about economic growth.

Revised oil and LNG prices mean reductions of -1-13% to earnings across the broker's Australian energy coverage over 2023-24.

 Santos remains the broker's preferred Australian energy exposure. Provided the company can complete the sell-down of a -5% interest in PNG LNG, proceeds can accelerate deleveraging. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.20 from $8.30.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $1.02
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.28, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates URW as Buy (1) -

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield is switching its primary listing to Euronext Paris on April 14 from Euronext Amsterdam and the Amsterdam securities will be delisted on April 28 - last trading day April 27.

Ord Minnett's valuation for the Australian chess depositary interests rises 6% to reflect appreciation of the euro against the AUD.

The company advises it intends to maintain the CDIs but the broker says with no listing, no assets, and dwindling Australian investor base, a withdrawal remains on the cards.

The broker suspects North American investors sold the stock after the company declared it would massively reduce US financial exposures in 2021 and the number of Aussie CDIs have been declining sharply since.

But the broker claims the worst appears to be over, and retains a Buy rating. Target price is $7.80, which compares with the last entry in the FNArena database on April 3 of $7.35.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $3.69
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

UBS trims its forecast for 2023 Brent crude to US$88/bbl to reflect a more modest fall in Russian oil production amid persistent concerns about economic growth.

Revised oil and LNG prices mean reductions of -1-13% to earnings across the broker's Australian energy coverage over 2023-24.

Woodside Energy is the most leveraged to changes in oil and LNG pricing. The broker retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $36.10 from $36.50.

Target price is $36.10 Current Price is $33.90 Difference: $2.2
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.70, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS has a mixed outlook for coal. Thermal coal prices are finding a floor after sharp correction in 2023 and a power shortage is expected to tighten the market in the northern autumn.

Metallurgical coal on the other hand is expected to hold up above US$220/t into the medium term. Coal supply is expected to recover in 2023 once weather disruptions abate.

Neutral maintained for Whitehaven Coal. Target is reduced to $7.00 from $8.60.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $0.03
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.54, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources