Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates AD8 as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse initiates coverage with a Neutral rating and $9 target. While the broker is favourably biased towards the stock this is tempered by concerns the market may be under appreciating the near-term reinvestment that is occurring.

The broker awaits either lower consensus earnings estimates or a discount to the 12x revenue multiple.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.73 Difference: $0.27
If AD8 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.63, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Alcoa reported December quarter underlying operating earnings of US$346m. Alumina Ltd receives US$74m in net distributions plus an additional receipt of US$27.6m post-December 31.

Credit Suisse assesses this will enable the company to exit 2019 with net debt of just US$54.8m. The reaction in the share price suggests there was little surprise in the numbers.

Cost pressure is expected to return in the second half, however, as higher natural gas contracts flow through earnings. Neutral rating and $2.40 target maintained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.1
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

Production and prices in the fourth quarter were in line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker re-works dividend assumptions which yield an increase of 8% to the target, to $1.40. Underperform rating maintained.

The AWAC JV has recently announced the closure of Point Comfort, which could mean -4mt of alumina production and -1.5mt of aluminium capacity is affected.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Net distributions from Alcoa were slightly better than Morgan Stanley estimated. Aluminium is expected to be in surplus in 2020 although demand is better than expected while alumina is close to balance. A smaller surplus of bauxite is expected in 2020.

Overweight rating, Attractive industry view and $2.45 target maintained.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.15
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Lighten (4) -

Alumina markets appear to be near a trough, as Ord Minnett notes prices are well within the cost curve. However, current oversupply and the likelihood of further smelter curtailments could mean the situation requires multiple years to recover.

Alcoa predicts global aluminium consumption will grow 1.4-2.4% in 2020 and a market surplus will persist. Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and raises the target to $2.00 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AWC as Sell (5) -

Alcoa reported an adjusted earnings loss for the December quarter of -US$0.31 per security. Net distributions to Alumina Ltd were US$74.4m.

UBS acknowledges its final base case dividend of US3.5c per share may be conservative and notes additional distributions appear necessary for the final dividend to reach the consensus forecast of US4.1c per share.

Sell rating and $2.10 target maintained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BLX as Hold (3) -

Morgans suspects it will be difficult for Beacon Lighting to make up enough ground in the second half to meet prior earnings forecasts. Hence, forecasts are lowered by -5%.

The broker expects little in the way of top-line growth in the first half. However, the broker believes business can ultimately benefit from an improving housing market and a potential re-build program stemming from the bushfires.

Hold rating and $1.16 target maintained.

Target price is $1.16 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CTX as Neutral (3) -

The company has maintained guidance, although refiner margins are weaker. Credit Suisse does not consider the weakness significant from the perspective of potential transaction value, noting investor attention is firmly on the engagement with Couche-Tard and EG Group.

Refiner margins deteriorated in December relating to higher premiums for light sweet crudes. Premiums are expected to reduce through 2020. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $36.25 target.

Target price is $36.25 Current Price is $35.00 Difference: $1.25
If CTX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.75, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTX as Hold (3) -

The Caltex refining margin for the fourth quarter of 2019 was US$7.51/bbl, below guidance. This stemmed from a falling Singapore weighted average margin and a higher landed crude oil premium.

Ord Minnett reduces 2019 Lytton earnings forecasts and is now at the lower end of the guidance range. Further progress is being made on the bid by Couche-Tard, although the broker recognises there is no certainty that management presentations will achieve agreement on value.

The broker suspects potential bidder EG Group, which is yet to be granted the same level of access, could step up to the plate, although there are greater risks for ACCC approval given site overlap.

Hold rating and $35 price target retained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $35.00 Difference: $0
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.75, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTX as No Rating (-1) -

Lower base margins and a rise in landed crude oil premiums delivered a reduced refiner margin in the December quarter. As a result Caltex Australia now expects 2019 refining earnings (EBIT) of $70m.

2019 group earnings guidance is reiterated, at $580-620m, which UBS considers reflects an improved performance in the higher-multiple divisions and cost reductions. The broker is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $35.00. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $34.75, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral on valuation grounds. The broker acknowledges the company is a stand-out performer but cannot justify the current multiple of 25x.

That said, inflows have accelerated in the December quarter and market conditions remain supportive. Target is raised to $55 from $49.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $63.19 Difference: minus $8.19 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $50.40, suggesting downside of -20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Buy (1) -

Buy rating maintained while the price target loses -1c to $0.80. Citi found the Q2 trading update serves as a signal that sales momentum is strong, supported by Black Friday and Christmas 2019.

The analysts acknowledge headwinds remain for the jeweler short-term, but medium term earnings momentum is expected to improve. Citi also finds the stock is still trading at undemanding multiples in combination with an above average dividend yield.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.09
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.74, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

December quarter sales growth was 3.3% and same-store sales growth 4.0%, slightly ahead of Credit Suisse estimates.

This was considered a welcome outcome given the difficult trading conditions in the Australian market, aggravated by deep discounting from many competitors.

Moreover, gross margins appear to be holding up under the pressure. The company continues to focus on working capital improvements and operating efficiencies.

Credit Suisse expects limited impact from the initiatives in the upcoming first half result. Outperform rating maintained. Target is NZ$0.87.

Current Price is $0.71. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.74, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Top-line growth in the December quarter was better than Ord Minnett expected, although there was a slight miss in some key performance indicators (KPIs).

The broker remains positive on the company because of its high-quality business model and exposure to strong sectoral growth.

As the stock is trading in line with the revised target, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is raised to $11.30 from $10.50.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $0.29
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.48, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS observes the business continues to grow at an impressive rate but remains conscious that the majority of December quarter KPIs did not record an acceleration in growth momentum.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy and wants more tangible signs of an acceleration in KPI growth rates before becoming more positive. Target is raised to $11.75 from $11.55.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $0.74
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.48, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett was pleasantly surprised by the December quarter update, with higher-than-expected performance fees. The company has indicated FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) will now be somewhat higher than the previous guidance of US$33.5m.

The broker considers the stock cheap from both a discounted cash flow and PE multiple standpoint. Buy rating and $3.70 target maintained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.71
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRU as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts spotted a "solid quarter" for Perseus Mining, implying the company remains on track to achieve FY20 guidance. The stockbroker retains its Neutral/High Risk rating, as well as the $0.90 price target.

Potential catalysts for the current quarter include an initial resource at Sissingue-satellite Zanikan and resource upgrades at Edikan, point out the analysts. Only minor amendments have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PRU as Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform (5) -

December quarter production was in line with guidance. FY20 guidance has tightened to 275-295,000 ounces at a cost of US$850-950/oz. Development has progressed at Yaoure.

The impact of the wet season appears to have been considerably less than in the prior corresponding period, with Sissingue well prepared. The gold price assumption is increased to US$1300/oz, driving an increase in reserves, predominantly at Edikan.

Credit Suisse downgrades to Underperform from Outperform on valuation. Target is raised to $0.93 from $0.88.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Production in the December quarter was better than Macquarie expected. The broker considers the company comfortably within its first half guidance range, while the stronger second half guidance will be driven by grade.

A maiden reserve at Zanikan near Sissingue is expected. Macquarie lifts estimates for earnings per share by 34% in FY20 and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised 14% to $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.14
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PTM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral on valuation grounds. The rate of outflows remains elevated in the December quarter, albeit moderating.

While the easing of outflows is encouraging, it occurred without a meaningful improvement in performance, the broker notes. Target is raised to $4.30 from $3.85.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.76 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting downside of -18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts seem pleased, overall, with reported update on the December quarter production volumes. They do note the tax rate is high and anticipated to remain high due to the fact that the coal operations in South Africa remain loss-making.

In addition, the company has exercised its option to acquire a 50% interest in a JV company that will own the Arctic and Bornite projects with partner Trilogy Metals. Minor changes made to estimates have lifted the price target to $3.30 from $3.20. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.41
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

The December quarter was soft, Credit Suisse observes, amid weak manganese prices. The main change to estimates is driven by an expected effective tax rate of 75-85% in the first half. There are no available tax benefits to use from South Africa Energy Coal.

While the first half dividend is considered likely to be mediocre, the broker notes the balance sheet has plenty of capacity to extend the capital management program beyond February.

Credit Suisse suspects South32 will require some further commodity price help and operating improvement in FY21 to lift the share price meaningfully. Outperform rating and $3.10 target maintained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.21
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Underperform (5) -

Weak manganese and alumina prices continue to pressure the earnings outlook, in Macquarie's view. The company reported lower energy and metallurgical coal volumes in the December quarter vs the broker's expectations.

Effective tax rates of 75-85% for the first half have materially reduced the broker's FY20 earnings forecasts. Macquarie maintains an Underperform rating and $2.20 target.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Production and sales were in line with expectations in the December quarter. Alumina performed well while those divisions being divested continued to underperform.

Morgan Stanley expects manganese tonnage to break even at US$3.40 and likes the stock on valuation and cash returns.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating and $2.90 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.01
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Add (1) -

Cannington, Cerro Matoso and GEMCO volumes were ahead of estimates in the December quarter. SA Energy Coal volumes drifted lower and the company is progressing its divestment.

No changes were made to FY20 production guidance outside of the lowering of the estimates for SA Energy Coal because of weaker local conditions and wet weather.

Cannington (silver, zinc) was the stand-out performer, Morgans asserts. The broker believes the stock is leveraged for a recovery rally and maintains an Add rating. Target is reduced to $3.23 from $3.24.

Target price is $3.23 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.34
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Hold (3) -

Production was reasonably solid, Ord Minnett observes, in the December quarter. A planned longwall change meant production was lower than forecast at Illawarra Coal while Cannington beat estimates.

Recognising the worst appears to be behind the company in terms of operations and from a commodity price standpoint, Ord Minnett considers the stock fair value.

The company continues to expect the sale of South Africa Energy Coal to close in the December half of 2020. The broker maintains a Hold rating and $2.60 target.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

South32 is a step closer to the exit of South Africa Energy Coal, entering a binding agreement with Seriti Resources. Volumes of SAEC coal in the December quarter were reduced in response to market conditions.

The longwall move at Appin has been completed and both Appin and Dendrobium are performing as expected. The company has increased the emphasis on base metals exploration after exercising the option to acquire a 50% interest in the Upper Kobuk mineral project in Alaska.

UBS downgrades FY20 net profit forecast by -19% because of lower realised prices, particularly in aluminium and coal. Neutral rating and $2.90 target maintained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.01
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUL as Add (1) -

Morgans notes the company's outdoor business, BCF, is most at risk from the indirect impact of the bushfires in NSW/Victoria, although the heavy weighting to northern Queensland may buffer the impact.

BCF contributed 12% of operating earnings in FY19. Macpac is also expected to suffer, given its outdoor exposure. The broker highlights this is a short-term risk and continues to like the stock for its valuation/yield support as well as strong brands.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $11.04 from $11.15.

Target price is $11.04 Current Price is $9.76 Difference: $1.28
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.85, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Citi points out the Q2 quarterly report highlighted an increase in inventory and 3rd party sales which led to a "beat" in total coal sales. Third party sales were at record levels at some 150% higher than in Q1.

The analysts also note management is implementing focused strategies to successfully turn around the operations at Maules Creek. However, Citi has positioned itself near the bottom of the company's guidance for FY20 and notes near record levels of production will be needed in H2 to achieve guidance.

FY20 EPS forecast tumbles by -4%, with further reductions of -9% for FY21 and -6% for FY22. Target price falls to $2.60 from $2.90. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

The December quarter production result reflected the downgrade previously mentioned and the longwall move at Narrabri. To reach FY20 guidance Maules Creek requires a strong second half.

Credit Suisse notes, to this end, workforce challenges are being addressed, although conditions remain even drier than previously assessed.

While the Outperform rating is driven by assumptions that are considered modest, the broker acknowledges the market appeal for coal names is soft.

As BlackRock has added to the debate by withdrawing investment from thermal coal, the topic is front of mind and FY20 is expected to be the softest year in earnings since FY16. Target is reduced to $3.50 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.88
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Coal sales were boosted by a sell-down of inventory and increased third-party sales in the December quarter. Macquarie notes near-record levels of production are required at Narrabri and Maules Creek in the second half to achieve the lower end of guidance.

The broker decreases estimates for earnings per share by -4% in FY20 and -9% in FY21. Macquarie believes there is risk of further downgrades to guidance, given the step-up in production required. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.60 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Production was a bit softer in the December quarter but the drawdown of inventory and strong sales should mean there are limited impacts on the numbers, Morgan Stanley suggests. The broker considers the stock cheap at current levels.

Overweight rating, Attractive industry view and $3.65 target maintained.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $1.03
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Add (1) -

Morgans makes slight downward revisions to price realisation assumptions for both semi-soft and thermal coal sales. Risk weightings are trimmed for growth assets, to reflect uncertainty/delay around Vickery and the market's reticence to recognise Winchester in the assessment phase.

The broker suggests many of the operating challenges now appear to be behind the company, although FY20 guidance implies a large second half that depends on several issues such as drought, the ramp up at Narrabri and labour.

The broker recommends value investors accumulate the stock, while suggesting momentum traders could stay on the sidelines. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.46 from $3.67.

Target price is $3.46 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.84
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten, assessing the downside risk is limited. As the stock is yet to move, even though thermal coal prices have rallied 16% in the year to date, the broker suspects it will trade sideways for some time.

Overall, Ord Minnett found the December quarter production result poor quality, revealing even lower Maules Creek volumes and limited Narrabri production. Target is steady at $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.18
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Saleable coal production was -1% below UBS estimates. Management has implemented a revised labour strategy at Maules Creek and continues to have discussions with the government on water access.

Whitehaven Coal has acquired a nearby property with productive groundwater resources as well as transferred water licences across the group.

FY20 guidance is unchanged. The broker notes the second half will need to provide record production at Maules Creek in order to hit the middle of guidance.

There was a significant reduction in high calorie thermal sales, with low volumes at Maules Creek limiting blending opportunities in the December quarter.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $3.80 target.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $1.18
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Woodside Petroleum is positioned for a capital-intensive 2020. The company has guided towards -US$4bn in expenditure, contingent on FID for Scarborough/Pluto. Citi analysts continue to see potential for project delays (NWS/Pluto) and believe challenges lay ahead for the company.

Released Q2 production report revealed in line production, in combination with a strong beat for sales and revenues, comment the analysts. EPS forecasts have risen by 4%-5% which allowed the target price to lift to $36.50 (up 1%). Neutral.

Extra note: increased investment guidance by the company seems to have had a noticeable negative impact on Citi's forecasts for future dividend payments.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $35.52 Difference: $0.98
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.02, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

There were no major updates on milestones in the December quarter report, not that Credit Suisse was expecting any.

The broker suspects this could be still months away for Scarborough and even longer for Browse. The company beat estimates on revenue in the quarter.

Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $37.32 from $37.10.

Target price is $37.32 Current Price is $35.52 Difference: $1.8
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.02, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

2020 is likely to be an intensive year for capital, Macquarie highlights, with the company guiding towards US$4.0bn in expenditure, contingent on Scarborough/Pluto FID.

The broker notes 2020 guidance implies 12% production growth, driven by higher LNG volumes and increased oil output from Greater Enfield.

he broker continues to envisage challenges for the medium term because of the potential for further delays to North West Shelf/Pluto. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $36.50 from $36.00.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $35.52 Difference: $0.98
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.02, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes Scarborough continues to progress in the right direction. Guidance on capital expenditure for 2020 of US$4.1-4.4bn included a US$450m completion payment to ExxonMobil and BHP Group ((BHP)) on FID at Scarborough.

Morgan Stanley increases Pluto, Wheatstone and Greater Enfield production forecasts given the strong fourth quarter result.

Equal-weight maintained. Target is raised to $35 from $34. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $35.52 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.02, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WPL as Add (1) -

December quarter operations were solid, Morgans observes. North West Shelf and realised prices were ahead of estimates while Pluto and Wheatstone trailed. The company achieved its 2019 production guidance of 89-91 mmboe.

The major short-term catalyst is the finalising of the gas processing agreement at Browse. Morgans notes the stock has been supported by an oil price recovery and progress on growth projects.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $38.32 from $38.99.

Target price is $38.32 Current Price is $35.52 Difference: $2.8
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.02, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Accumulate (2) -

The company has guided to 7-14% production growth in 2020 and production of 97-103 mmboe. Growth is expected to come from liquids and LNG.

Woodside remains Ord Minnett's preference in the sector, as it offers good value and strong production growth, although the largest risks are considered the funding of growth.

Ord Minnett assesses the 2018 capital raising possibly provided enough finance to the end of the Scarborough project but not Browse. There are also ongoing risks from delays in joint-venture negotiations.

Accumulate rating maintained. Target is reduced to $40.25 from $41.00.

Target price is $40.50 Current Price is $35.52 Difference: $4.98
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.02, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

2020 guidance for production is marginally below UBS estimates. Capital expenditure guidance is higher than the broker forecast because of timing for the Pluto T2. There was no update on the gas agreement at Browse in the December quarter result.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating, noting the next phase of production growth will gradually emerge in Senegal and Scarborough by 2023 and Browse by 2026. Target is raised to $35.00 from $34.10.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $35.52 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.02, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources