Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Following 3Q results for Life360, Morgan Stanley suspects the bulls will highlight the ongoing execution in subscription (with pricing power), while bears will point to another hardware miss, resulting in a miss on cash burn.

The broker points out this is the second hardware downgrade of FY22, with hardware sales estimates reduced by around -US$20m to US$45m. It's felt an offset was provided by greater opex discipline.

Management reiterated FY22 guidance for core subscriber growth of more than 55% and provided annnualised monthly revenue (AMR) guidance (ex hardware) of more than US$215m compared to the analyst's forecast of US$213.6m.

The Overweight rating and $8.50 target are retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: $1.34
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Shares in Aristocrat Leisure are down post the release of FY22 financials, but Macquarie, in an initial response, seems to have welcomed the release with a positive undertone.

Macquarie analysts suggest the bottom line missed forecasts by some -2% but there was a positive contribution from FX which added 6%pts to reported growth.

Overall, reports the broker, the key segments (Americas & Pixel United) met expectations, with Americas having a better outlook than Pixel United. Management's guidance for FY23 is interpreted as 10%-15% growth ahead versus market consensus positioned for 17%.

Outperform rating, target price of $44.00.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $37.88 Difference: $6.12
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.53, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Buy (1) -

The early response from Ord Minnett suggests Aristocrat Leisure's FY22, released earlier today, marked a slight "beat" against the broker's estimates. The dividend slightly missed.

As the share price has responded negatively, the broker points towards the outlook statement containing no quantitative guidance. This might have been taken with some disappointment, is the suggestion made.

Any indication or update on the share buyback is equally missing, points out the broker.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $37.88 Difference: $3.12
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.53, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts found the AGM update better-than-expected but the broker retains a conservative stance on Accent Group's outlook, also because the company is starting to cycle tougher comparables.

Citi has questions about margins and prospects for consumer spending in general too. The company has a history of delivering positive surprises when it comes to store rollouts, the analysts highlight.

Citi now forecasts 80 new stores in FY23, up from the previous forecast of 70 new stores. Neutral rating, target price lifts to $1.77 from $1.61 on increased forecasts

Target price is $1.77 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.07
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi increases its earnings forecasts for CommBank by 5% and 4% in FY23 and FY24 respectively, following the bank's first quarter result. 

The broker also lifts its full year net interest margin to 2.18%, anticipating a peak margin of 2.20% in the second half of the fiscal year. 

The Sell rating and target price of $85.50 are retained.

Target price is $85.50 Current Price is $106.48 Difference: minus $20.98 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.28, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CBA as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

In reaction to 1Q results, Credit Suisse adjusts its FY23-25 EPS forecasts by 1%, -5% and -7%, respectively. A higher net interest margin (NIM) was offset by inflationary pressures on costs and higher bad debt assumptions.

Net interest income (NII) grew by 16% on volume growth and higher margins, partially offset by lower non-interest income. 

The broker's target price falls to $97.50 from $102.80. The rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on valuation and as the benefits from rate rises are already factored into the share price.

Target price is $97.50 Current Price is $106.48 Difference: minus $8.98 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.28, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Following 1Q results by CommBank, Morgans downgrades forecasts and lowers its target to $93.48 from $94.57. Cash profit was below the broker's forecast though is tracking at or mildly below the consensus expectation.

The analyst highlights strong growth in the high-quality net interest income (NII), but weakness in non-interest income and loan impairment charges.

NII, which accounts for around 80% of overall income, grew by 16% on the previous corresponding period, which is broadly the growth rate Morgans expects for the 1H. The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $93.48 Current Price is $106.48 Difference: minus $13 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.28, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett feels 1Q results for CommBank reflected recent reporting themes by its major bank peers.

The bank delivered a net interest margin (NIM) surprise, according to the analyst, though temporary factors led to a significant fall in non-interest income and costs rose quicker than expected. Credit costs are also thought to be normalising, in a further negative.

While the broker's FY23 forecast is barely changed, FY24 and FY24 forecasts rise by 2% on a higher NIM, and the target rises to $96 from $94.

The Hold rating is kept by Ord Minnett and investors are reminded of exposure to the Australian mortgage market. Ord Minnett states many of the rate leverage benefits are likely to dissipate over time due to intense competition.

Target price is $96.00 Current Price is $106.48 Difference: minus $10.48 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.28, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

While CommBank reported a -0.6% quarter-on-quarter net profit decline to $2.5bn in its first quarter, UBS highlights this amounts to a 13% lift on the previous comparable period.

The broker also notes best in class net interest income grew 14.0% quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from the rising rate environment, and strong net interest margin growth of more than 25 basis points. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $100.00 are retained.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $106.48 Difference: minus $6.48 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.28, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DGL as Neutral (3) -

DGL Group has provided full year earnings guidance of $70-72m, with a 60% second half weighting. While guidance is in line with consensus assumptions, UBS expects the company has skewed towards conservatism given ongoing movements in commodity and end-market prices.

The broker anticipates DGL Group to benefit from acquisitions made in the second half of FY22, which will see an annualisaton of earnings in the current year, and from further acquisitions ahead. 

UBS remains positioned at the top end of the guidance range. The Neutral rating and target price of $2.00 are retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.28
If DGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Following an -18% year-on-year decline in listing volumes in October, Citi continues to see risk to forecasts for online listings volumes. The broker assumes volumes decline -9% over FY24, continuing into the first half of FY24 and with a return to positive growth in the third quarter.

Both Domain Holdings Australia  and REA Group ((REA)) have slowed hiring given the weaker outlook. Citi considers Domain Holdings Australia potentially more exposed to downgrades. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.44 from $4.25.

Target price is $3.44 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.39
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi has commented on similarities between Domino's Pizza Enterprises and US-listed Domino's Pizza Group following the release of the latter's third quarter result, with positive growth momentum like for like sales a recurring trend for both.

The broker highlights carryout continues to outperform delivery, a positive for the companies given the typically more profitable nature of carryout. The Neutral rating and target price of $66.60 are retained.

Target price is $66.60 Current Price is $64.14 Difference: $2.46
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.50, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FPH as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare with an Overweight rating and $21 target price.

The broker is more positive than the market due to greater expectation for expansion of the installed base and forecasts an EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 25% over FY23-FY27.

The company designs, manufactures and markets products and systems for use in acute and chronic respiratory care, surgery and the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea.

The analyst's investment thesis is also based upon an increase in the rate of Homecare adoption as a result of the pandemic-induced adoption of Nasal High Flow Oxygen Therapy. 

Morgan Stanley notes the business is now stronger than in 2019, yet the share price is similar.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.14 Difference: $2.86
If FPH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.25, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HCW as Equal-weight (3) -

In a trading update by HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT, guidance for funds from operations (FFO) was reaffirmed at 6.8pu.

While management also released some details on some 'accretive' transactions, the broker suspects the cost of debt provides an offset.

Morgan Stanley leaves its $1.70 target and Equal-weight rating unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.15
If HCW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HT1 as Outperform (1) -

While 3Q radio revenues were in line with previous commentary by HT&E, management this time noted 2H FY22 revenues are tracking at “low-to-mid single-digit growth”.

This growth rate implies to Credit Suisse flat-to-slightly down 4Q revenue (year-on-year) and a slowing momentum trend, as well as limited net revenue synergy benefit from the Grant Broadcasters acquisition.

The target is reduced to $2.00 from $2.20 though the Outperform rating is maintained (the share price explains why).

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.83
If HT1 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.53, suggesting upside of 31.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HT1 as Neutral (3) -

HT&E's September-quarter revenue and guidance met Macquarie's forecasts but was slightly below the company/industry's forecasts.

The broker says the company's negotiations with agencies and advertisers suggests radio is not as resilient as hoped.

EPS forecasts fall -10% in FY21; -21% in FY22; and -13% in FY23 to reflect management's cost guidance.

Neutral rating retained to reflect the buyback and valuation. Target price falls -14% to $1.20 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.03
If HT1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.53, suggesting upside of 31.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HT1 as Buy (1) -

HT&E reports second half radio revenues are tracking at low to mid single digit growth, cycling off strong comparables in the previous comparable period. 

UBS lowers its second half radio revenue growth forecast to 1.5% from 4.0%, and marginally lowers market share assumptions. The update drives a -4% and -6% reduction to the broker's earnings forecasts for FY22 and FY23. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.80 from $2.00. 

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.63
If HT1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.53, suggesting upside of 31.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

While Credit Suisse upgrades FY23-25 earnings following Incitec Pivot's FY22 results and the target rises to $3.92 from $3.90, the rating falls to Neutral from Outperform as current opportunities are already considered in the share price.

These opportunities include the potential divestment of the US ammonia manufacturing business (WALA) and an improvement in earnings from the Americas. A $400m buyback is considered supportive.

Management will conduct a strategic review of WALA, having received a number of unsolicited buy offers.

The analyst expects fertiliser prices will provide less of a tailwind in FY23 and wet weather poses downside risk for Australian fertiliser sales volume in the 1H of FY23.

Target price is $3.92 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as No Rating (-1) -

Incitec Pivot's FY22 full-year net profit after tax outpaced consensus and Macquarie's forecasts; and management guided to a strong FY23, expecting operating and strategic momentum to drive solid results.

The company announced a $400m buyback, and a record full-year dividend, and advised the timing of the demerger would be delayed six-12 months, after announcing a strategic review of WALA (approaches have been received from interested parties).

Dyno Nobel Australia disappointed (EBIT falling -31% in the September half) as supply chain and cost inflation took their toll, but management expects these to be mostly recovered in FY23.

EPS forecasts fall -3% in FY23 to reflect the lower DNA contribution, but rise 6% in FY24 to reflect higher forecast ammonia prices.

Macquarie is on research restriction.

Current Price is $3.96. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -

FY22 results from Incitec Pivot revealed an earnings (EBIT) beat versus the forecasts of consensus and Morgan Stanley. The latter believes the focus will now be on the decision to delay the demerger and to pursue a “strategic review” of Waggaman.

The demerger involves the separation of Pivot Fertilisers (IPF) and Dyno Nobel.

A new $400m buyback was also announced and should be well received, according to the analyst. A final 27cps dividend was declared, compared to the 25cps expected.

The Overweight rating is maintained as Morgan Stanley still sees the opportunity to benefit from global gas dislocation, and the target rises to $5.05 from $4.75. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $1.09
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Add (1) -

FY22 results for Incitec Pivot were a marginal beat over consensus expectations. A final fully franked dividend of 17cps was declared and a $400m buyback (5.2% of issued capital) boosted Morgans FY23-25 EPS forecasts.

The analyst remains positive on the outlook and forecasts increase on higher fertiliser prices and a lower Australian dollar. The target price is increased to $4.55 from $4.45. 

The broker's Add rating remains because of attractive industry dynamics and the potential for earnings upside, as well as the potential Waggaman sale and demerger. Management still believes separation of Pivot Fertilisers (IPF) and Dyno Nobel will create value. 

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.59
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Hold (3) -

Operationally, FY22 results for Incitec Pivot aligned with consensus expectations though Ord Minnett suspects the 6-12 month deferral of demerger plans for Dyno Nobel will be the main focus.

The demerger delay results from a strategic review to be conducted of the Waggaman ammonia manufacturing facility.

A final 17cps fully franked dividend was declared and a $400m buyback was announced.

While the explosives and fertiliser businesses are supported by near-term demand, the broker feels its current valuation reflects the risk/reward balance and retains its Hold rating. The target rises to $4.30 from $3.90.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.34
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Incitec Pivot delivered a record full year result, with earnings up 162% year-on-year to $1.5bn. The result was a 4% beat to UBS, and the broker attributed growth to strength in ammonia and di-ammonium phosphate pricing, which drove a 129% increase to fertiliser earnings. 

Given the company has received a number of unsolicited bids to acquire its Waggaman plant, it has delayed the potential merger of its explosives and fertiliser operations while it assesses strategic options. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.50 from $4.35.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.54
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JRV as Outperform (1) -

Jervois Global has preannounced September-quarter earnings (EBITDA), which fell slightly below Macquarie's forecast.

The company also appointed Dr Daniela Chimisso as independent director and announced the ICO construction was 71% complete as of September 30.

The company has spent -US$91m out of a US$107.5m budget, and construction will continue through to the new year, with first commercial concentrate production expected in the December quarter.

FY22 EPS forecasts move to -0.1c from -0.2c and outer years are steady. Outperform rating and 55c target price retained.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.13
If JRV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett feels its Sell thesis for Lynas Rare Earths is supported by recent media reports highlighting the Kalgoorlie plant execution risk.

The analyst casts aspersions on whether the budget is being met and points out equipment is still being erected and installed, when the project should be ramping-up by now.

The $4.95 target is unchanged and more positively, the broker alludes to a $1bn cash balance, which alleviates the impact of the potential budget miss.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: minus $3.45 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.00, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MGH as Add (1) -

Morgans is not surprised the weak real estate market and past rain in Central NSW have resulted in a FY23 guidance downgrade by Maas Group. The target price falls to $4.00 from $4.20.

Earnings guidance falls to $150-$180m from $180-$200m. The analyst believes the company will manage the acquisition pipeline so proforma gearing remains below covenant levels. Add.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $1.52
If MGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEC as Neutral (3) -

Nine Entertainment has narrowed December-half earnings (EBITDA) guidance to the bottom end of its forecast range and provided a September-quarter trading update for Domain Group ((DHG)).

Nine posted strong gains in market share in the September quarter (revenue up 9% and at the high end of guidance), and Macquarie expects this bodes well for the December quarter, but TV revenue for the quarter is expected to be in the low single digits.

Domain Group's listings eased in the early months of the December quarter and Macquarie advises the company is reviewing FY23 cost guidance and has downgraded margin guidance.

All up, EPS forecasts fall -7% in FY23; -10% in FY24; and -5% in FY23 to reflect higher publishing costs and listings downgrades for Domain.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls -6% to $1.91 from $2.03.

Target price is $1.91 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If NEC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.79, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Neutral (3) -

Nickel Industries has produced its first nickel pig iron from its Oracle Nickel Project ahead of planned delivery in February, but in line with Macquarie's expectations.

The broker expects the project to ramp up over 2023, and the company's own power plant will come on line in the June quarter, allowing it to move to full nameplate capacity.

The company has also announced its maiden nickel matte production at HNI. 

Neutral rating retained, the broker awaiting LME realisation rates and margins before reviewing. Target price is steady at 90c. This compares with 73c in the FNArena database as at November 1.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NTO as No Rating (-1) -

Nitro Software's board recommends shareholders vote in favour of a takeover bid from Cascade Parent and reject the bid made by Potentia. 

Nitro Software and Cascade Parent have entered into a biding agreement which will see the latter undertake to acquire 100% of Nitro Software through a scheme of arrangement, and make an off-market takeover offer. 

Cascade Parents' bid is subject to majority shareholder approval, as well as court and regulatory approvals. 

UBS is on research restriction.

Current Price is $2.09. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -

In an initial response to Nufarm's FY22 release, Citi notes EBITDA was a modest "miss" but it did meet market consensus.

Management's guidance for FY23 is being described as "constructive".

The broker considers today's update as merely a "market neutral" event. Buy. Target $6.40.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $0.98
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

In an initial response to today's FY22 release, Macquarie comments Nufarm's underlying performance proved slightly better-than-expected. Final dividend of 6c beat the broker's 4c forecast.

Assuming normal seasonal conditions, and on constant FX basis, management is predicting modest underlying growth, the broker points out. Net operating cash flow marked a significant "beat".

The Outperform rating is hereby reiterated alongside a target price of $7.20.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $1.78
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NUF as Buy (1) -

In a quick response to Nufarm's FY22 release, UBS analysts comment it has proved a "clean" result with positive outlook commentary from the company.

The latter is important, suggesting management still sees growth ahead for FY23 (albeit small) whereas market consensus is currently assuming a -5% retreat.

UBS itself is forecasting 2% growth for FY23. In addition, management has reiterated its revenue guidance for more than $4.6bn in FY26, which is well above market consensus ($3.9bn) and UBS ($4bn).

Buy with target price of $7.40.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $1.98
If NUF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Following an -18% year-on-year decline in listing volumes in October, Citi continues to see risk to forecasts for online listings volumes. The broker assumes volumes decline -9% over FY24, continuing into the first half of FY24 and with a return to positive growth in the third quarter.

Both REA Group and Domain Holdings ((DHG)) have slowed hiring given the weaker outlook. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $126.00 from $137.45.

Target price is $126.00 Current Price is $122.42 Difference: $3.58
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $125.87, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMC as Neutral (3) -

Resimac Group's December-half trading update points to solid home-loan competition particularly in Prime loans, observes Macquarie.

The bank bill swap rate also hit net interest margins and the broker expects headwinds will mount.

EPS forecasts fall -18% in FY23; -21% in FY24; and -20% in FY25. Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to 98c from $1.37.

Target price is $0.98 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If RMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews Steadfast Group after observing merger and acquisition activity is already priced in to market forecasts.

But the thesis remains good, the broker noting consensus has priced in the full $400m trapped capital pipeline in estimates and the broker's own estimates spy another $1.2bn in acquisitions.

Macquarie says the balance sheet can easily manage the expenditure without raising further capital or debt.

The broker tinkers with EPS estimates.

Target price rises to $6.20 from $6. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $1.15
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.03, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Buy (1) -

Crown Sydney allowed Barangaroo casino access on August 8 to Star Entertainment's Chairman’s and Sovereign members (its top two tiers). Now membership has been extended to include Star’s third-tier (Oasis) members.

Ord Minnett hasn't identified a material pick-up at Crown though notes trading at Star has recently softened, which may not be all attributable to Barangaroo.

The target for Star falls to $3.55 from $3.80. Buy.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.6
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -

Concerned by a potential slowing of covid-testing earnings (as reported by competitors), Ord Minnett makes modest cuts to its earnings estimates. Cost inflation is also set to weigh given the company has limited pricing power in most markets.

The broker lowers its target to $34 from $36 and retains its Hold rating.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $33.13 Difference: $0.87
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.78, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Add (1) -

Having returned from a site visit, Morgans highlights the successful transition of the BMC assets into full Stanmore Resources ownership.

The analyst is attracted to higher capital upside versus peers and strong cashflow/valuation leverage, as well as M&A advantages/ opportunities for met coal in Queensland.

The Add rating is kept while the target slips to $3.90 from $4.10.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $1.45
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SWM as Neutral (3) -

Seven West Media's AGM and trading update to December 2022 reveals total TV revenue fell -8% as the Olympics revenue subsided.

Macquarie considers consensus estimates to be overly optimistic and expects a de-rating.

The broker cites TV pricing, negative cyclicals, and growing competition for market share (expecting Seven will experience losses).

EPS forecasts fall -16% in FY23; -18% in FY24; and -18% in FY25. Neutral rating retained. Target price falls -18% to 41c from 50c.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.61, suggesting upside of 36.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

United Malt Group's FY22 full-year result met guidance and Macquarie's forecasts, and management reiterated August guidance for a sharp increase in FY23 earnings and outer years.

The broker increases its earnings (EBITDA) forecast, noting a good percentage of FY23 business is already booked.

Macquarie also spies a full-year reversal of the crop impost; improved customer pricing and terms; transformation benefits; a better sales mix; and the contribution of a full-year run rate from the Scottish distillery.

The balance sheet looks less attractive but management expects gearing will revert to the company's target range by FY23.

On the downside, higher-than-forecast interest costs trigger a cut in EPS forecasts of -32% in FY23; -18% in FY24; and -13% in FY25.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $3.99 from $3.85.

Target price is $3.99 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.73
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.92, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates UMG as Hold (3) -

FY22 earnings (EBITDA) -post SaaS costs- were in line with guidance.

FY23 guidance was revised marginally lower for higher SaaS costs, while higher net interest and tax forecasts sees Morgans make material downgrades to its profit forecasts. The target falls to $3.67 from $3.84.

The analyst expects a recovery to more acceptable earnings will take until FY25. The risk in the interim is the potential for new management to raise capital to deleverage the balance sheet and chase new growth opportunities.

Target price is $3.67 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.41
If UMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.92, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UMG as Buy (1) -

United Malt has performed to UBS's recently upgraded expectations. Easing supply side headwinds and ongoing beer demand underpinned the recent upgrades, and the broker expects operational performance is improving and should drive 40% earnings growth over the coming year.

The broker does note risk around high-end craft beer demand, and that the company may raise equity to deleverage the business faster. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.70 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.44
If UMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.92, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -

Ventia Services has reiterated profit guidance as per IPO prospectus and Macquarie's response is the company continues to navigate well through weather impacts and cost challenges.

The broker makes a point of highlighting Ventia's attractive market outlook with outsourced maintenance services expected to grow at a 6.6% CAGR to FY26 as per prospectus forecasts.

In addition, the company also expects to benefit from energy transition tailwinds. Outperform rating and $3 target price.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.48
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources