Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AVR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Anteris Technologies has announced its one-year safety and efficacy data for aortic stenosis patients treated with DurAVR.

The broker views the data as indicative of future outcomes from an approval study for DurAVR, which has the potential to compete with the Sapien valve that continues to dominate the US market with an estimated 65–70% market share.

Bell Potter believes the data have vindicated "superior" patient outcomes compared to Sapien, subject to further studies.

No change to Speculative Buy rating and $15 target price.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $8.77 Difference: $6.23
If AVR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

No changes made to the Neutral rating or $5.64 price target, but Citi analysts report they returned from a recent visit to Bunnings Preston (VIC) "feeling slightly more cautious" on Bapcor and Super Retail Group.

The analysts note Bunnings has been sharp with its pricing on auto products, has been able to secure some major brands, and the products appear largely non-discretionary which could impact foot traffic to Supercheap Auto and Autobarn.

That said, it remains unclear to the analysts to what extent Bunnings’ entry into the category will hurt the incumbents.

Target price is $5.64 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: $0.73
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Buy (1) -

At Ord Minnett's mining conference on March 19, three uranium miners Paladin Energy ((PDN)), Boss Energy and Lotus Resources ((LOT)) presented their views.

The miners talked about the falling spot price for uranium amid geo-political uncertainty and the uncertainty over whether miners or utilities will pay the expected tariffs.

The broker cut target price on Boss Energy to $4.70 from $4.80 on higher costs at Alta Mesa project.

Buy maintained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $1.92
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 42.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Collins Foods has not disclosed how many KFC stories it owns in Queensland, so Citi has done its own analysis which suggests a -1% downside to 2H25 group EBITDA forecast as the worst case.

This is based on an assumption the estimated 128 KFC locations were all owned by Collins Foods, though the broker admits the expected impact may be on the conservative side given the weekend timing.

While negative, the broker's Buy rating is retained as it is based on an improving medium-term profit profile for the core KFC franchise.

Target price $9.38 stays.

Target price is $9.38 Current Price is $8.44 Difference: $0.94
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.75, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter upgrades Catalyst Metals to Buy from Hold with a higher target price of $5.50 from $4.45, on the back of the sale of the Henty gold mine to Kaiser Reef ((KAU)) for $33m, including $15m in cash, around $14m in Kaiser shares, and $4m for environmental bonds.

Post-transaction, Catalyst will hold 19.99% of Kaiser's ordinary shares.

The broker believes the transaction is sensible as it simplifies the business and facilitates attention on the expansion and exploration of the Plutonic Gold operation.

Bell Potter has increased its gold price forecast by 3% in FY25 and 11% in FY26, with a long-term gold price of US$3,800/oz from FY28.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.9
If CYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DRR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi upgrades Deterra Royalties to Buy with an unchanged target price of $4.50, on the back of the stock trading at a "large discount" to the estimated net present value.

The broker has reviewed the 12-month outlook for global metals and mining. Citi envisages the most upside from 1Q 2025 levels for uranium and lithium carbonate, and the most downside for manganese and zinc prices.

Citi retains a bullish view on gold for the next three months, raising its forecast to US$3,200/oz from US$3,000/oz, and remains negative on oil for 2025, downgrading the Brent crude price forecast to US$60–63/bbl.

Other price changes: copper up 4% to US$9,100/t, lithium carbonate down -8%, hard coking coal down -12% to US$184/t, thermal coal down -12% to US$105/t, and alumina down -23% to US$443/t.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: $0.89
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FCL as Buy (1) -

Citi focuses on Fineos Corp's balance sheet, with the company's cash balance declining to EUR20m.

The broker believes there is an increased risk of a possible equity raising, particularly if churn rates increase and/or cash receipts are softer than anticipated.

The company raised equity in August 2023 when cash holdings fell to around EUR25m, the analyst explains.

Citi has lowered revenue forecasts but increased earnings (EBITDA) estimates by 16% and 5% for FY25/FY26, respectively, due to lower expected operating costs.

Buy rating retained.

Current Price is $1.86. Target price not assessed.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers the target price for Fortescue to $17.50 from $20 due to a lower AUD versus USD and higher iron ore prices, offset by increased unit cost assumptions.

The broker has reviewed the 12-month outlook for global metals and mining. Citi envisages the most upside from 1Q 2025 levels for uranium and lithium carbonate, and the most downside for manganese and zinc prices.

Citi retains a bullish view on gold for the next three months, raising its forecast to US$3,200/oz from US$3,000/oz, and remains negative on oil for 2025, downgrading the Brent crude price forecast to US$60–63/bbl.

Other price changes: copper up 4% to US$9,100/t, lithium carbonate down -8%, hard coking coal down -12% to $184/t, thermal coal down -12% to $105/t, and alumina down -23% to US$443/t.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $16.30 Difference: $1.2
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.80, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLI as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie reckons Commbank's ((CBA)) announcement that it has engaged with an alternative LMI provider on an exclusive basis means Helia Group has likely lost the contract.

The broker had flagged this possibility in its previous report while warning the risk was not being priced in.

The Commbank contract comprises 44% of Helia's business and will expire by end-2025, if not renewed. The broker believes the share price is now capturing the contract loss.

Going forward, the broker expects share buyback to be completed which led to a 4% increase in the FY25 EPS forecast and a 9% rise in FY26.

Target price cut to $3.55 from $4.20. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. 

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If HLI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers Iluka Resources target price to $5.10 from $5.60 due to more "moderate" long term price and production grade assumptions.

The broker has reviewed the 12-month outlook for global metals and mining. Citi envisages the most upside from 1Q 2025 levels for uranium and lithium carbonate, and the most downside for manganese and zinc prices.

Citi retains a bullish view on gold for the next three months, raising its forecast to US$3,200/oz from US$3,000/oz, and remains negative on oil for 2025, downgrading the Brent crude price forecast to US$60–63/bbl.

Other price changes: copper up 4% to US$9,100/t, lithium carbonate down -8%, hard coking coal down -12% to $184/t, thermal coal down -12% to $105/t, and alumina down -23% to US$443/t.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.93
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.48, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

Citi has retained Neutral rating on James Hardie Industries in an initial reaction to the acquisition of AZEK. The broker sees sound logic in the deal but will assess it further once more information is available.

The broker is optimistic about PVC trim complementing FC sales in the Northeast and the increased product range from the merger.

On the risk side, the broker notes the US$56.88/share offer price is below its US$61 price target and slightly above the 52-week high, increasing the risk of shareholders asking a higher price. On the other hand, the negative price action implies a high single-digit reduction in the offer, the broker notes.

Target price remains at $56.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $40.00 Difference: $16
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.86, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie notes James Hardie Industries' proposed acquisition of AZEK is at a 26% premium to AZEK's volume-weight average price and implies a 20.8x NTM EV/EBITDA.

The broker believes AZEK is an attractive asset and will solve the weakness in the company's trim product but the deal will dilute returns for James Hardie's shareholders.

Target price cut to $44 from $65 on a reduced multiple of 13x FY26 estimates from 18.9x. Rating downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $40.00 Difference: $4
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.86, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley acknowledges the premium paid by James Hardie Industries for AZEK but considers the circa -21% decline in the share price as overdone.

The broker upgrades the stock to Overweight from Equal-weight and notes EPS dilution and share price volatility in the short term.

James Hardie has agreed to acquire AZEK for US$8.75bn with a combination of cash and shares. Management is targeting synergies of US$350m, of which true cost synergies are US$125m, excluding commercial revenue synergies, the analyst explains.

Management highlighted cross-selling opportunities, including 55% of siding contractors also doing decking and around 55% of homeowners completing decking and re-siding at the same time.

Target of $55 retained. Overweight. Industry view is In-Line. The broker's earnings forecasts are unchanged pending the finalisation of the transaction.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $40.00 Difference: $15
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.86, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JHX as Add (1) -

Morgans views James Hardie Industries' proposed acquisition of AZEK as improving the overall quality of the business. However, it sees the deal as dilutive for James Hardie's shareholders because gearing increases in an uncertain environment.

Target price lowered to $54 from $60 which the broker believes more than compensates for the additional risk. Add retained.

The broker believes the deal will make sense if the company can extract US$350m of synergies via cost reduction by FY28 and commercial synergies until FY30, and US housing repair/remodel rebounds.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $40.00 Difference: $14
If JHX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.86, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley states, slightly tongue in cheek, the broker's attempt to estimate normalised EPS forecasts post Lendlease Group's simplification strategy is complicated by an uncertain development pipeline and earnings from asset sales.

The analyst believes the simplification strategy is "warranted" after a mixed performance from international development and construction projects, with the caveat that once the asset sales and restructuring are completed, what does the company's future look like?

Morgan Stanley highlights that, depending on assumptions around developments, the EPS forecasts will vary.

Equal-weight rating. Target price slips to $7.12 from $7.16. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $7.12 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: $0.94
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOT as Speculative Buy (1) -

At Ord Minnett's mining conference on March 19, three uranium miners Paladin Energy, Boss Energy ((BOE)) and Louts Resources presented their views.

The miners talked about the falling spot price for uranium amid geo-political uncertainty and the uncertainty over whether miners or utilities will pay the expected tariffs.

The broker realised Lotus Resources is more committed to the Letlhakane project in Botswana than it believed, with the company planning to direct cash flow from the Kayelekara project to drilling there.

No change to target price of 35c and Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.155
If LOT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.45, suggesting upside of 150.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers the target price on Mineral Resources by -$2 to $28 on lower long term lithium prices.

The broker has reviewed the 12-month outlook for global metals and mining. Citi envisages the most upside from 1Q 2025 levels for uranium and lithium carbonate, and the most downside for manganese and zinc prices.

Citi retains a bullish view on gold for the next three months, raising its forecast to US$3,200/oz from US$3,000/oz, and remains negative on oil for 2025, downgrading the Brent crude price forecast to US$60–63/bbl.

Other price changes: copper up 4% to US$9,100/t, lithium carbonate down -8%, hard coking coal down -12% to $184/t, thermal coal down -12% to $105/t, and alumina down -23% to US$443/t.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $24.33 Difference: $3.67
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.73, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley explains capital market weakness has resulted in a reduction in the analyst's EPS forecasts by -5% for FY25/FY26 for Macquarie Group, despite the company highlighting several structural growth options in the EU.

The broker came away from the EMEA tour and EU conference with more confidence in the group's medium-term growth prospects, notably for the EU.

Infrastructure and private credit are expected to be the biggest growth areas in private markets, and the EU is looking to increase its capital markets, with Macquarie recently adding staff for more EU facilitation.

The Overweight rating is retained. Target price falls to $224 from $253. The industry view remains In-Line.

Target price is $224.00 Current Price is $199.47 Difference: $24.53
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $219.91, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Following a recent European tour, Ord Minnett believes the medium-term outlook for Macquarie Group is promising. The broker notes a delay in the sale of Cero and Corio projects but expects higher expenses on account of the delay to be offset by greater gains from future sales.

No change in FY27 forecasts but FY26 lowered by -3% due to higher employee costs from competitive pressures.

The broker notes Macquarie Capital is investing heavily in private credit and equity.

Target price unchanged at $245 and Accumulate rating retained.

Target price is $245.00 Current Price is $199.47 Difference: $45.53
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $219.91, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MVP as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

With the transfer of coverage at Bell Potter, Medical Developments International is rated Hold with a lower target price of 71c, down from $1.60.

The analyst is upbeat on the positive earnings (EBITDA) for the first time in a while, and although the turnaround has been slow, some "green shoots" are starting to appear.

Post analyst handover, Bell Potter has reduced sales forecasts by -23% and -34% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, and earnings estimates are lower by around -45% to -69% for FY26–FY27.

Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.15
If MVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades New Hope to Neutral from Buy with a lower target price of $4.20 from $5.30. due to lower thermal coal price forecasts and earnings downgrades for 2025/2026 of -25%/-22%, respectively.

The broker has reviewed the 12-month outlook for global metals and mining. Citi envisages the most upside from 1Q 2025 levels for uranium and lithium carbonate, and the most downside for manganese and zinc prices.

Citi retains a bullish view on gold for the next three months, raising its forecast to US$3,200/oz from US$3,000/oz, and remains negative on oil for 2025, downgrading the Brent crude price forecast to US$60–63/bbl.

Other price changes: copper up 4% to US$9,100/t, lithium carbonate down -8%, hard coking coal down -12% to $184/t, thermal coal down -12% to $105/t, and alumina down -23% to US$443/t.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.27
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NSR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS analysts note shares in National Storage REIT have declined by some -12% over the six months past, also underperforming against other REITs, as investors concentrate on challenging operational conditions.

Lower rates are seen as the 'fix', but UBS also focuses on improvement coming on the back of a recovery in housing. Forecasts have been lowered below consensus and the expectation is that consensus will fall in line with the broker's adjustments.

Having said all of the above, UBS also believes the share price already is accounting for all of that. Hence, upgrade to Buy from Neutral.

Target price loses -10c to $2.49.

Target price is $2.49 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.29
If NSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Buy (1) -

At Ord Minnett's mining conference on March 19, three uranium miners Paladin Energy, Boss Energy ((BOE)) and Lotus Resources ((LOT)) presented their views.

The miners talked about the falling spot price for uranium amid geo-political uncertainty and the uncertainty over whether miners or utilities will pay the expected tariffs.

Paladin Energy indicates uranium production will be lower than forecast but unit costs will be higher.

No change target price of $9.60 and Buy rating.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $3.05
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.84, suggesting upside of 69.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Premier Investments' 1H25 result came in line with guidance, Bell Potter notes, with Smiggle revenue falling -15% on a year earlier and Peter Alexander's revenue rising 7%, excluding the UK.

The broker notes global sales growth of 1.8% versus the previous year for the first five weeks of 2025, in what is normally a seasonally slower period. A&NZ Smiggle sales momentum has improved with back-to-school.

Bell Potter lowers revenue growth assumptions for the second half of 2025 to 6% from 8.5%, with the divestment of non-core Apparel brands to Myer Holdings ((MYR)) completed.

The analyst lowers earnings before interest and tax forecasts on more conservative assumptions by -7.2% and -7.5% for FY25/FY26.

The Buy rating is maintained with a $29 target price, down from $30.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $21.21 Difference: $7.79
If PMV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.62, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views the Premier Investments first-half result as in line with pre-guidance, with improving sales momentum at the start of 2H25.

Peter Alexander sales rose 7%, and Smiggle sales fell by -15% on a year earlier, with retail earnings before interest and tax down -16%. Global sales rose 1.8% for the first five weeks of the second half, the analyst notes.

Peter Alexander opened three stores in the UK, with a further seven targeted for launch, and Morgan Stanley sees good growth opportunities from a very fragmented market. Green shoots of a turnaround for Smiggle are starting to appear, the broker highlights.

Morgan Stanley lowers earnings before interest and tax forecasts by -4% to -6% for FY25–FY27 on lower sales and higher costs.

Overweight rating unchanged. Target price falls to $29.50 from $32. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $21.21 Difference: $8.29
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.62, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SM1 as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter observes Synlait Milk announced first-half 2025 earnings (EBITDA) at NZ$68.5m, which were better than guidance. Sales rose 16% on a year earlier and earnings advanced 90%, with net profit after tax well above forecasts at NZ$6.8m versus NZ$2m.

Management offered no fiscal earnings guidance but stated the second half should be better than the first, albeit with slower improvement than the first. The company also highlighted that the majority of South Island suppliers have withdrawn cessation notices.

The broker lifts earnings estimates by 3% for FY25 and 7% for FY26. The company remains vulnerable to a2 Milk ((A2M)) integrating its supply chain vertically through 2025.

Hold rating maintained. Target price rises to 92c from 90c.

Target price is $0.92 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.11
If SM1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SM1 as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes Synlait Milk's 1H25 EBITDA came in at the top end of the NZ$58-63m guidance, up 217%, but the company cautioned the performance won't be repeated in 2H.

The boost to 1H mainly came from volume and margin improvement in the advanced nutrition business which the broker expects to continue in 2H along with growth in Dairyworks. Headwinds are expected from unfavourable stream returns and exchange rate shifts.

The broker notes the net debt position of NZ$250-300m in FY25 is higher than previous target of NZ$200-250m range but is technically NZ$25m better, though confusing to understand.

The broker cut FY25/26 EPS forecasts by -20% and -4% respectively on model changes and earnings update, partially offset by higher risk-free return of 4.5% vs 4.25%.

Target price cut to NZ44c from NZ47c. Underperform maintained.

Current Price is $0.81. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Citi lowers the target price for Stanmore Resources by -30c to $3.10 due to lower coking and thermal coal price assumptions.

The broker has reviewed the 12-month outlook for global metals and mining. Citi envisages the most upside from 1Q 2025 levels for uranium and lithium carbonate, and the most downside for manganese and zinc prices.

Citi retains a bullish view on gold for the next three months, raising its forecast to US$3,200/oz from US$3,000/oz, and remains negative on oil for 2025, downgrading the Brent crude price forecast to US$60–63/bbl.

Other price changes: copper up 4% to US$9,100/t, lithium carbonate down -8%, hard coking coal down -12% to $184/t, thermal coal down -12% to $105/t, and alumina down -23% to US$443/t.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.87
If SMR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SOL as Add (1) -

Morgans notes WH Soul Pattinson's 1H25 result showed a solid 10% increase in net cash flow from investments (NCFI) which it uses as a guide to the company's performance.

The broker notes the company allocated more capital into private credit and private equity, with the private credit portfolio rising 73% y/y to $1.2bn on $266m additional capital. NCFI from credit portfolio rose 81% y/y and increased 108% y/y from private equity.

The broker expects growth to continue in private credit with committed funds of $238m and additional opportunities.

Target price cut slightly to $36.20 from $36.30. Add maintained.

Target price is $36.20 Current Price is $34.38 Difference: $1.82
If SOL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

No changes made to the Buy rating or $18 price target, but Citi analysts report they returned from a recent visit to Bunnings Preston (VIC) "feeling slightly more cautious" on Bapcor and Super Retail Group.

The analysts note Bunnings has been sharp with its pricing on auto products, has been able to secure some major brands, and the products appear largely non-discretionary which could impact foot traffic to Supercheap Auto and Autobarn.

That said, it remains unclear to the analysts to what extent Bunnings’ entry into the category will hurt the incumbents.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $13.18 Difference: $4.82
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Citi is not overinterpreting Lottery Corp CEO Sue van der Merwe's announcement to retire by the end of 2025.

The broker notes Van der Merwe successfully led the company through its demerger in 2022 and the company is doing well with the initiatives taken to boost the game portfolio.

Buy rating and $5.60 target price.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $0.78
If TLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources