Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 29M as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of 29Metals with an Accumulate rating and a $2.70 target price.

The broker considers the company is a "growth story in a hot commodity" - copper, with 29Metals positioned through 100% ownership of Golden Grove and Capricorn Copper to become the number 2 ASX listed copper producer.

The balance sheet has cash on hand of $189m and debt of US144m.

Accumulate rating and $2.70 target.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.22
If 29M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates A2M as Sell (5) -

a2 Milk Co's AGM update revealed underlying business performance is in line with company expectations, Citi notes, but the weaker NZD to CNY and USD is underpinning an FY23 revenue guidance upgrade and an FY23 margin guidance downgrade.

Citi expects challenging industry conditions to continue and regulatory uncertainty to remain elevated as a2 awaits the outcome of its  Chinese registration renewal under the new food safety standards.

Target rises to $4.51 from $4.38, Sell retained.

Target price is $4.51 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: minus $1.44 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting downside of -17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABY as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Adore Beauty has appointed Tamlin Morton as new CEO, starting January 9.

While the broker appreciates the less discretionary qualities of the beauty category, it spies little upside from here given September-quarter results met the broker's forecasts but earnings (EBITDA) margin guidance proved a miss.

UBS observes the company is targeting margins of 8% to 10% in FY27, a figure the broker considers overly ambitious.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price falls to $1.95 from $2.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.19
If ABY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

The Managing Director and CEO of Aurelia Metals has stepped down, with an interim CEO appointed as a global search for a replacement gets underway. 

The company also appointed KPMG to review its operations in an effort to improve operational performance, plant efficiencies, operating costs and capital management. Macquarie, however, feels the review may be a red flag and could increase downside risk. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.23 from $0.25.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.125
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP Group has lifted its bid for OZ Minerals ((OZL)) by 13% in what it has indicated will be a final offer. The new price is a 49.3% premium to the share price prior to the initial offer, and implies an enterprise value of $9.6bn. 

Macquarie considers BHP to have capacity to execute on the takeover at the current offer and maintain a solid balance sheet. The broker also expects the revised offer to allow OZ Minerals to pay a $2.00 per share franked dividend ahead of the takeover. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $45.00 are retained.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $43.94 Difference: $1.06
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.95, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes the 13% increase in the takeover price to $28.25 from $25 for OZ Minerals ((OZ)) by BHP Group.

Due diligence for four weeks is now enabled and the OZ Minerals ((OZL)) board is expected to endorse the offer once the "binding scheme implementation agreement" is received.

At this stage the broker envisages BHP Group will divest the Brazil portfolio for some $500m and they await further possible synergy announcements.

The deal should be completed by mid 2023.

The Hold recommendation and $42 target are retained.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $43.94 Difference: minus $1.94 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.95, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett is looking for a trading update at the November 22 AGM for BlueScope Steel with the current EBIT guidance for FY23 ($800m - $900m) expected to be maintained.

Although the analyst notes lower volumes may impact by $50m and recent weakness in steel prices may impact, with the North Star spread of US$252/t around -23% below the IH23 guidance.

As a result EBIT forecasts are lowered by -14% and -19% for FY23 and FY24.

A Buy rating is retained and the target adjusted to $20 from $21.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.62 Difference: $3.38
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.89, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

UBS sees upside to BlueScope Steel's earnings (EBIT) guidance as currency benefits outpace higher coal costs and weakness in East Asia, but the broker lowers forecasts to reflect recession concerns.

UBS also observes the company is gaining market share in Australian Steel Products, with Colorbond prices strong, and backlogs extending 9-12 months, and that that North Star is trading at a sharp discount to US peers, all of which the broker expects will cushion the company from global macro trends.

The broker is forecasting a soft landing but a landing nonetheless. EPS forecasts fall -11%.

Buy rating retained, the broker noting BluesScope is trading at a -40% discount to key US peers. Target price falls to $20.50 from $22.60.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $16.62 Difference: $3.88
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.89, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EPY as Add (1) -

Despite strong organic growth, FY23 profit guidance by EarlyPay was a miss versus Morgans forecast due to higher funding costs and provisioning than expected.

The broker likes the solid underlying client volume growth and considers the additional provisioning is logical.

Morgans retains an Add rating and points to ongoing solid underlying momentum into FY23, with average funds in use now expected to be up 25% on the previous corresponding period.

The target falls to 52c from 57c after the broker aligns its forecasts to amended guidance.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.135
If EPY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLS as Add (1) -

A 1Q trading update by Healius revealed to Morgans a dramatic slowing of covid testing, which has now moved into the normal pathology network from drive-through sites.

On the flipside, the analyst points to improving base business trends, with Imaging growing at above market and Pathology progressively increasing. Strong 2H FY23 growth is expected. No FY23 guidance was provided.

The broker lowers FY23-25 profit forecasts by -21.5%, -16.5% and -14.2%, respectively, on lower covid testing and base business assumptions. The target falls to $3.96 from $4.50, while the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.96 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.64
If HLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLS as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Post the Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)) trading update, Ord Minnett has taken a knife to Healius earnings forecasts due to the challenging macro environment from declining covid testing, rising costs and a slower turnaround in the base business.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -37% for FY23 and -28% for FY24.

The rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold and the rating declines to $2.95 from $3.90.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ICT as Buy (1) -

iCollege updated the market at the AGM and reaffirmed 1H23 guidance which is in line with Ord Minnett forecasts.

Management expect around 4000 students enrolled in English courses by the end of 2022, compared to 1531 at the end of June 2022 and some 5% better than the broker's estimate.

iCollege also committed a change the name to "NextEd Group" to align with the strategic direction and branding of the company.

There were no changes to the Ord Minnett earnings forecasts.

Buy rating and 29c target unchanged.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.04
If ICT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Titanium demand has softened, and Citi sees -15-20% price downside in the December quarter compared to a more typical seasonal decline in the low teens. The weakest demand is in China, followed by Europe with US holding up best so far.

Demand should trough out in 2023 but for now macro conditions see US housing starts showing no signs of bottoming. The key risk to Iluka Resources' near-term earnings forecasts is rutile and synthetic rutile prices falling further/faster than anticipated, Citi notes.

Neutral and $9.50 target retained.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $10.00 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.77, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JLG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reviews the trading update at the Johns Lyng AGM as positive with the company continuing to benefit from the work created from high impact natural catastrophes.

Management highlighted a record pipeline of work for both the business-as-usual (BAU) and catastrophe response operations (CAT) and reaffirmed the FY23 guidance.

Buy rating and $8.50 target are retained.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: $1.29
If JLG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNK as No Rating (-1) -

Link Administration has entered into an agreement to sell 10% of its Pexa Group ((PXA)) stake at $13.50 per share, representing sale proceeds of $102.2m. The company will use proceeds to repay borrowings, which Macquarie expects could reduce financing costs. 

The company also intends to seek shareholder approval to proceed with an in-specie distribution of at least 80% of its Pexa Group shares to shareholders. If approved expect distribution in late January. 

Due to research restrictions Macquarie is unable to provide a rating or target price.

Current Price is $3.45. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOV as Outperform (1) -

Lovisa Holdings has sustained strong sales performance in the first nineteen weeks of the fiscal year, reporting like-for-like sales growth of 16.1% and total sales growth of 60.0% as it cycles lockdowns in Australia and New Zealand.

Macquarie highlights Lovisa Holdings has retained its new store opening run rate, averaging 13 new store additions per month. Year-to-date the company has 47 net new stores, and continues to expand into new regions with Italy, Mexico and Hungary to launch in coming weeks.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $27.00 from $27.70.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.85 Difference: $3.15
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.35, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees upside risk to consensus earnings expectations following a trading update by Lovisa Holdings for the first 19 weeks of FY23. It's thought revenue upgrades will exceed the impact from margin pressures (eg. a lower Australian dollar and cost inflation).

Total sales rose by over 60%, compared to 66% in the first 7 weeks, though well ahead of the consensus forecast for 1H growth of 30%, explains the broker.

The net number of stores added was 47 (now a total of 676) compared to the 64 expected by consensus, notes the analyst. First stores for Italy, Hungary and Mexico will open in the next few weeks.

The Overweight rating and $27.25 target are unchanged.

Target price is $27.25 Current Price is $23.85 Difference: $3.4
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.35, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS does an about-face on Lovisa Holdings after the AGM trading date, believing its August downgrading was premature after like for like sales grew 60% in the first 19 weeks of FY23.

Store network growth is outpacing global peers, the company is set to enter three new markets, and the broker expects strong revenue, earnings and margins growth accordingly.

EPS forecasts rise 24% in FY23 and 35% in FY24, and the broker now sits sharply above consensus forecasts.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target price rises to $29 from $20.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $23.85 Difference: $5.15
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.35, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAN as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans was ahead of the game by recently upgrading forecasts for Nanosonics, as shown by a four month trading update at the company's AGM, which revealed a 42% increase in revenue, along with an increase in the installed base.

As a result of this foresight, the broker makes no changes to its forecasts (preferring to wait for 1H results), maintains its $4.91 target price and lowers its rating to Hold from Add after a recent share price rally.

The analyst remains cautious on the (limited) launch timing for CORIS, the flexible endoscope cleaning device, scheduled for 2023.

Target price is $4.91 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.33
If NAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHF as Add (1) -

Following a four-month trading update for the new financial year, Morgans assesses nib Holdings is broadly performing well, with robust policyholder growth and 16% year-to-date profit growth.

The analyst attributes the profit growth to an ongoing favourable claims environment and a recovery in the company's covid-impacted inbound health insurance (IIHI) and Travel businesses.

The broker raises its FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts by 11% and 2%, respectively, and the target climbs to $8.54 from $8.27. Add.

Target price is $8.54 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $1.42
If NHF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten (2) -

nib Holdings trading update for the first four months of FY23 at the AGM revealed a well received lift in underlying profits, according to Ord Minnett.

Although the analyst notes the low level of claims from the impact of covid, management do not see there are reasons for concern from any potential pullback in profits from the comparative covid period.

Earnings forecasts are adjusted by 6% for FY23 with higher margins being sustained before reverting to more normal levels.

Ord Minnett upgrades the rating to Accumulate from Lighten due to the share price pull-back with a $7.50 target.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $0.38
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OZL as No Rating (-1) -

BHP Group has lifted its bid for OZ Minerals by 13% in what it has indicated will be a final offer. The new price is a 49.3% premium to the share price prior to the initial offer, and implies an enterprise value of $9.6bn. 

Macquarie expects the revised offer to allow OZ Minerals to pay a $2.00 per share franked dividend ahead of the takeover. The bid remains subject to due diligence, but OZ Minerals has indicated it will recommend shareholders vote in favour of the transaction. 

Macquarie is on research restrictions.

Current Price is $27.34. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.91, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OZL as Hold (3) -

Morgans feels the higher $28.25/share offer by BHP Group ((BHP)) for OZ Minerals has a high likelihood of success and shares will probably trade below the offer price with less chance of a competing offer emerging.

The brokers also suggests the significant time to completion (beyond mid-2023) will keep the share price trading under the offer price due to the time value of money.

The target rises to $28.25 from $25.70. Hold.

Target price is $28.25 Current Price is $27.34 Difference: $0.91
If OZL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.91, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OZL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett considers the raised takeover offer price of $28.25 per share for OZ Minerals by BHP Group ((BHP)) as a "great" result for shareholders, as the price is an estimated 40% premium to the calculated NAV.

The bid price also implies a long term copper price of US$4/lb which is above the broker's US$3.5/lb forecast.

BHP Group ((BHP)) has been allowed a four week due diligence time frame with the deal is dependent on a satisfactory  outcome, as well as unanimous endorsement from the OZ Minerals board and the company not looking for other offers.

The target is raised to $28.25 from $27 and the Accumulate rating is maintained with an 18c final dividend for FY22.

Target price is $28.25 Current Price is $27.34 Difference: $0.91
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.91, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

UBS upgrades OZ Minerals' target price to $28.25 from $26.50 to reflect BHP's ((BHP)) revised offer, which BHP advises is its best and final bid.

The broker notes OZ Minerals' board plans to unanimously recommend the new proposal subject to the usual due diligence and independent expert's report. The broker also notes the cash component of the closing dividend will be subtracted from the bid price.

UBS doesn't rule out another bid but finds it hard to imagine which global companies could compete with BHP in a country where it can extract no synergies. 

Target price is $28.25 Current Price is $27.34 Difference: $0.91
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.91, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Buy (1) -

Perpetual amended the cash and scrip takeover mix with Pendal ((PDL)) in a mutually agreed scheme, notes Ord Minnett.

Shareholders will now received 1 Perpetual share for 7 Pendal ((PDL)) shares abd a $1.65 cash offer per Pendal share.

The revised deal will create a stronger balance sheet for the combined group.

In addition the Supreme Court ruled that Perpetual could not limit the possible damages to $23m to Pendal if the deal did not go through.

The Buy rating and $30 target are retained.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.92 Difference: $3.08
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.60, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as No Rating (-1) -

With Pexa Group reporting "encouraging" first quarter volumes of 963,000 the company has lifted first half guidance above Macquarie's assumptions to 1.9m.

The broker expects refinance volumes to remain in line with elevated levels reported in the previous comparable period, predicting levels will normalise in 2024. Transfer volumes, however, look to decline -20% on the previous comparable period but Macquarie predicts recovery in 2024.

Macquarie is on rating restriction.

Current Price is $14.18. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $18.25, suggesting upside of 33.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources's McPhillamys gold project has been designated "approvable with conditions" by the New South Wales Department of Planning and Environment. The Independent Planning Commission will now review, and Macquarie anticipates a final decision in the second half of FY23.

The broker assumes a final investment decision from Regis Resources in late FY23 and first gold in early FY26, nine months later than originally expected. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.10 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $0.26
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Sandfire Resources' announcement of a $200m equity raise is somewhat unexpected and Citi thinks the reaction may be mixed. Sandfire assured a raise wasn’t required for debt covenants but for “balance sheet flexibility”.

There is a new CEO coming, costs at MATSA have edged higher, and ASX copper peers are becoming scarcer (in reference to the OZ Minerals takeover) but the copper price is also 7% higher, Citi notes, and China reopening headlines have helped lift the share price 24%.

Citi's near-term base case is for substantial downside in base metals prices over the next 3-6 months. Copper is now pricing a major near-term recovery in demand growth, which is unlikely to materialise before the June quarter next year in the broker's view.

Downgrade to Neutral from Buy, target falls to $5.40 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.61
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as No Rating (-1) -

Sandfire Resources has commenced an entitlement offer to raise $200m at $4.30 per share. Macquarie higlights fhe offer is comprised of an institutional offer anticipated to raise $150m, and a retail offer anticipated to raise $50m. 

The company has indicated $50m in proceeds will be utilised to pay off the outstanding ANZ Corporate Debt Facility. $90m will be allocated to working capital and financial flexibility and $60 to growth and exploration of MATSA and Motheo. 

Macquarie is on research restrictions. 

Current Price is $4.79. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Ord Minnett view the $200m entitlement offer at $4.30 per share as a positive, boosting the price target by 9% to $3.60 and at pitched a  $1  premium to the analyst's net present value.

Of note the deleveraging of the balance sheet is viewed as significant due to the indebted financial structure of the company.

Nevertheless the broker considers the valuation as excessive with the stock rallying some 43% from the lows in October.

The target is revised to $3.60 from $3.30 and the rating downgraded to Sell from Hold.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -

Sonic Healthcare offered a trading at the AGM which revealed a larger fall in covid testing rates and a slower recovery in the core business according to Ord Minnett.

Consequently margins were 200 basis points lower than expected and revenues also were below forecasts. Higher costs continued to weigh on the margins from labour/transport and energy pressures.

Hold rating and $34 target are maintained.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $31.90 Difference: $2.1
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.20, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SVW as Buy (1) -

Seven Group reported a strong September quarter trading update at the AGM according to Ord Minnett.

Management expect low double-digit growth in EBIT for the WesTrac and Coates businesses.

As a result of these changes, EBIT forecasts are adjusted by 3% for FY24.

Buy rating and $22 target retained.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $20.27 Difference: $1.73
If SVW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.68, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLC as Outperform (1) -

Following commentary made at Lottery Corp's annual general around reviewing the commission structure for retailers, Macquarie expects an increase to commissions is imminent. 

The broker estimates a 1% increase in commissions in FY24 would equate to $26m in incremental earnings for Lottery Corp. Macquarie maintains Lottery Corp is one of the most defensive discretionary stocks on the market. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $4.90 are retained.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.4
If TLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WEB as Outperform (1) -

Better topline performance and stronger profitability from Webjet than Macquarie had anticipated saw the company deliver a beat to the broker's first half expectations. Revenue of $175.7m, earnings of $72.5m and net profit of $32.0m were 21%, 53% and 31% ahead of the broker's forecasts respectively.

Profitability from WebBeds is ahead of expectations, with business-to-business well ahead of pre-covid levels and business-to-customer performing strongly despite challenges. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.82 from $6.15.

Target price is $6.82 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $0.71
If WEB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources