Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates 360 as Outperform (1) -

Management has reiterated 2019 prospectus guidance. First half revenue was in line with Credit Suisse estimates although customer acquisition expenditure was lower than anticipated.

The broker observes the core subscription business is outperforming, upgrading 2020 estimates. Outperform rating is reiterated and the $5.20 target is unchanged.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $1.17
If 360 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABC as Sell (5) -

The company has indicated net profit for 2019 will be in the region of $120-130m, down -32-37%. While the housing market sentiment may have improved in recent months, Adelaide Brighton does not expect an upturn to emerge for another 12-18 months.

This is the company's second warning for 2019, Citi points out, having highlighted a deteriorating housing market, intensifying competition and higher raw material costs back in May.

Citi maintains a Sell rating and reduces the target to $3.30 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ABC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

The company has downgraded net profit guidance for the second time for 2019. Management has attributed this partly to market deterioration and partly to company-specific factors. Credit Suisse notes the company's business model has been caught poorly positioned, affected by circumstances more than peers.

Adelaide Brighton is not sufficiently vertically integrated in Queensland and Victoria to pick up infrastructure work, which is one of the factors. The company will not declare a first half dividend and special dividends are dependent on land sales.

Credit Suisse downgrades to Underperform from Neutral and reduces the target to $3.00 from $3.70.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ABC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie had already set its forecasts below Adelaide Brighton's prior guidance range on concerns over Queensland demand, but new guidance is lower still, given weak demand in SA and Victoria as well, leading the broker to cut forecasts a further -22%.

The broker had expected a lower dividend, but now no interim will be offered.

Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, citing concerns over earnings visibility. It's not just weak demand that is the issue, the broker believing the business model may need to be reconsidered. Target falls to $3.75 from $4.80.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.42
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ABC as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Adelaide Brighton has downgraded net profit guidance, again, to $120-130m, a -25% reduction to Morgan Stanley's estimates. No interim dividend will be paid.

The main drivers of the weakness are soft conditions in residential and civil construction markets and continued competitive pressures in Queensland and South Australia.

Morgan Stanley is concerned about the dramatic decline in earnings since the last downgrade in May and the lack of a dividend removes one of the key pillars of support for the stock.

Rating is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight and the target lowered to $3 from $4. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABC as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Following the company's second downgrade to 2019 net profit estimates, Ord Minnett now believes guidance is achievable. Management has signalled a -32-37% decline in net profits over the year.

The broker upgrades to Hold from Lighten, although reduces the target to $3.50 from $3.90. Despite the sharp reaction in the share price following the announcement, Ord Minnett does not believe the stock is cheap.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.17
If ABC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABC as Sell (5) -

Softer residential and civil construction markets as well as competitive pressures in South Australia and Queensland have caused Adelaide Brighton to downgrade its net profit outlook for 2019 the second time.

While the reasons for the downgrade were are not surprising, UBS was surprised by the speed of the decline. The broker believes investors are increasingly cautious regarding the move to not declare an interim or special dividend.

Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.15 from $3.71.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ahead of the company's results on August 8, Ord Minnett downgrades to Lighten from Hold. The broker expects FY20 guidance will lead to significant downgrades to market estimates.

The broker believes management will be cautious about the outlook, being under continued pressure from politicians to lower retail prices.

Ord Minnett also believes AGL Energy will need to better articulate growth plans since it terminated discussions to acquire Vocus Group ((VOC)). Target is reduced to $19.75 from $21.00.

Target price is $19.75 Current Price is $20.49 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.88, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALQ as Neutral (3) -

The company has guided for net profit of $90-95m in the first half, with the mid point -10% below Credit Suisse's previous estimates. Management expects a 50 basis points improvement in life sciences margin in FY20.

Sample volumes in commodities are soft so far and sample flow trends are consistent with the slowdown that was observed in the fourth quarter of FY19. Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and $7.40 target.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.38
If ALQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -

ALS has guided to first half profit of $90-95m, below the broker's prior $101m. The broker is unsurprised, noting ongoing weakness in the flow of mineral samples. Otherwise, Life Sciences continues to track well and margins are improving.

The broker believes sample flow weakness simply reflects a pause in the cycle rather than anything sinister, given there is an ongoing need for exploration. Having de-rated, the stock is now trading at a -21% discount to global peers while continuing its buyback and lining up further acquisitions in food and pharma.

Outperform retained, target falls to $8.25 from $8.62.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $1.23
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Hold (3) -

The first half guidance issued at the AGM was slightly below Morgans' expectations. The broker believes peak commodities-driven growth is now behind the company and the health of the exploration and mining capital raisings remain key to the performance in FY20.

This is helped by record gold prices. While rating the stock highly, Morgans is aware that momentum investors are averse to uncertainty in mining services stocks.

Execution of the M&A strategy in life sciences is now a key driver, although the broker expects this to take 1-2 years to play out. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.63 from $7.86.

Target price is $7.63 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.61
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALQ as Neutral (3) -

First half net profit guidance is $90-95m, below UBS estimates. This reflects weaker-than-expected geochemistry sample volumes in the commodities division. The broker lowers FY20 forecasts by -9%.

The company is experiencing growth across key operating units, highlighting positive earnings momentum in life sciences. UBS believes an earnings recovery is adequately priced and retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $7.80 from $8.25.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.78
If ALQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AQG as Outperform (1) -

June quarter production was ahead of expectations and the ramp up of the sulphide project continues to progress. Credit Suisse believes this is an endorsement of the project quality and the company's execution.

Cakmaktepe is making a strong contribution on positive reconciliation while Arditch exploration continues to reveal encouraging intercepts, the broker notes. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $6.00 from $5.20.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.21
If AQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AQG as Buy (1) -

June quarter production was better than UBS expected. It has become clear to the broker that the sulphide plant is performing well. While the share price has risen 122% over the year to date as milestones are reached, more is expected.

Further upside is possible from continuing to extend oxide production and from the rising gold price. UBS maintains a Buy rating and raises the target to $6.50 from $5.70.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.71
If AQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AUB as Neutral (3) -

The company has reaffirmed FY19 guidance for growth of 3-5%. The investigation into the financial misconduct with subsidiary Austbrokers Canberra has been completed and remediation work is in the final stages, management reports.

No further negative impacts are expected from this matter going forward. Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and $11.45 target, assessing the new strategy remains unclear and the costs of change are uncertain.

Target price is $11.45 Current Price is $11.88 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If AUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS is finding it too difficult to justify the share price. While Commonwealth Bank has a strong franchise, with a technological lead and robust financial returns the earnings profile is declining. Hence, the broker downgrades to Sell from Neutral.

UBS believes the bank has a dilemma regarding whether to return excess capital or face a potential shortfall, should the Reserve Bank of New Zealand proceed with its capital review proposals and/or the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority closes its "capital re-positioning" regulatory arbitrage.

The broker believes it would be more prudent to retain capital for New Zealand until the rules are clarified by the end of the year. However, UBS assesses investors appear to favour a full return of around $5bn up front and then rebuild capital for NZ over time. Target is steady at $72. The bank will report its results on August 7.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $81.91 Difference: minus $9.91 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.25, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Champion Iron's first quarter result beat the broker on increased shipments and higher realised prices, but missed on costs. Outperform retained, with the broker noting significant catalysts ahead with the acquisition of the final stake in Bloom Lake and production ramp-up.

Not to mention iron ore prices that imply a 50% increase to earnings forecasts in FY20 and 215% in FY21 if current spot prices are used. Higher costs nonetheless see the target fall to $4.30 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $1.47
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse notes, while retail share prices appreciated strongly in the fourth quarter, retail trade remains subdued.

The broker believes the market has set earnings expectations low for most retailers and any misses will result in significant reductions to the share prices.

The broker downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is $12.04.

Target price is $12.04 Current Price is $14.09 Difference: minus $2.05 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.75, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DCN as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the share price has recovered from recent lows following the release of downgraded FY20 guidance. Citi incorporates the June quarter production data into its modelling, which reduces FY19 estimates for net profit by -$9.5m.

Neutral/High Risk rating maintained and the target is raised to $1.00 from $0.70.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.14
If DCN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLN as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

FX was a key driver of top-line growth in the first half and UBS estimates the underlying marketplace revenue was essentially flat. While the broker likes the stock, the share price is seen incorporating a hefty recovery as well as some undeveloped opportunities.

Further monetisation an uplift in growth is required and the broker downgrades to Sell from Neutral. Target is raised to $0.88 from $0.70.

Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.01
If FLN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Genworth reported in line, with a seasonally stronger second half to come. The market responded favourably to the remaining buyback being paid as an unfranked special dividend instead. Macquarie notes shareholders have already approved the buyback of another 100m shares which could happen in the next six months, subject to regulatory approval.

A reserve release is also possible, with reserves levels remaining high. This, and a cut to forecast investment yields, lead the broker to cut earnings forecasts and its target to $3.25 from $3.50. On the strong share price response, Macquarie pulls back to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If GMA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HAS as Initiation of Coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and $0.30 target. Hastings Tech is the broker's top pick amongst rare earth developers because of its high-value orebody and low technical risk path to production.

The main risks include project financing, ramp up and pricing. The company owns the Yangibana project in the Gascoyne region of Western Australia, expected to commence commercial production by mid 2021.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.16
If HAS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IAG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse expects Insurance Australia Group will hit the lower end of its insurance margin target in FY19. Guidance was initially considered conservative and likely to be beaten but following downgrades to consensus estimates over the year, the broker's is not so sure this is the case.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral as the risk to the share price is considered skewed to the downside. Target is steady at $7.80.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $8.51 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IDX as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse does not believe the FY20 PE multiples are overly stretched but envisages M&A is the most likely driver of near-term upside.

The broker believes Integral Diagnostics is best positioned across the major trade players to both fund and execute consolidation.

Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $3.45 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.01
If IDX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFN as Buy (1) -

The June quarter production report revealed net revenue of $229m, -3% below Ord Minnett's estimates. This was likely driven by curtailments at the Lake Bonney 2 and 3 facilities.

Net profit forecasts are reduced by -7% for FY19. The broker maintains a Buy rating and $0.80 target.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.32
If IFN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the share price has gained 13% in July and valuation is now looking stretched. FY20 guidance suggests there is downside to Tropicana's gold outlook versus the broker's expectations and cost forecasts are higher.

FY19 production beat the broker's estimates for metal but missed on costs. Citi maintains a Neutral rating and $5 target.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Independence Group's June Q numbers were below expectation due to higher costs, which led to a -17% miss on earnings. FY20 guidance was mixed, the broker notes, with strong production expected at Nova offset by higher capex for Tropicana.

The broker has increased its Nova production forecast and notes that despite spending on growth, the miner is still generating 9% free cash flow on FY20 forecasts (more if spot prices are used). Outperform retained, target rises to $5.90 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.62
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

Costs were slightly higher at Nova in the June quarter while operating cash flow was in line with expectations. Capital expenditure will be higher in FY20.

Equal-weight. Industry view is: Attractive. Target is $4.55.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Cost guidance for FY20 is modestly higher than UBS expected and Tropicana production is lower. This has resulted in a -10% downgrade to the broker's FY20 estimates for net profit.

The broker remains concerned that the move higher in the nickel price may not be fundamentally backed. The stock appears to be trading around fair value and UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is steady at $5.40.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.12
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPD as Move to Speculative Buy from Add (1) -

Morgans found the fourth quarter cash flow report solid, noting the key catalysts of private payor adoption and inclusion in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines are still to materialise.

Timing is difficult to predict but management has indicated that progress is being made. The broker moves to a Speculative Buy rating from Add and reduces the target to $0.26 from $0.28.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.12
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Neutral (3) -

June quarter flows disappointed Citi and estimates for earnings per share are lowered by -8% for 2019 and by -12% for 2020.

While investment performance is improving and appears relatively respectable, Citi considers outflows, particularly from equities and Intech, as well as an elevated compensation ratio sour the outlook.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $30.35 from $33.65.

Target price is $30.35 Current Price is $27.90 Difference: $2.45
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.16, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHG as Neutral (3) -

A stronger market performancefrom Janus Henderson in the first half was not enough to stem the tide of outflows, the broker notes, nor overcome lower performance fees and higher staff expenses.

On balance the broker retains Neutral, noting the stock is trading at a -46% discount to listed fund managers but assuming flows will remain under pressure and keep a lid on valuation. Target falls to $33 from $36.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $27.90 Difference: $5.1
If JHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.16, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Equal-weight (3) -

Weaker assets under management and base fee margins contributed to the miss to Morgan Stanley's forecasts in the second quarter. While there were pockets of strength and the company has provided an update on its strategy, overall, the broker was unimpressed.

Equal-weight rating is maintained. Target is $33.30. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $33.30 Current Price is $27.90 Difference: $5.4
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.16, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Reinstate Coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reinstates coverage with a Buy rating and $5 target. The broker considers the stock materially undervalued relative to its fundamentals and this is largely due to political uncertainty in Malaysia.

The broker is confident this will be resolved by the licence renewal deadline in September. Ord Minnett believes Lynas Corp can readily self-fund growth. Valuation is expected to re-rate soon, given recently-announced growth plans combined with the near-term potential to generate cash.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $2.47
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MMM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Investors should expect volatility in Marley Spoon's operating metrics as the company scales up, Macquarie suggests, but a June Q reversal of the prior positive cash flow trend and a decline in active customers has led to market uncertainty when cash flow breakeven is the key focus.

Meal kits still offer high growth potential and the partnership with Woolworths ((WOW)) is supportive but the broker pulls back to Neutral from Outperform, expecting uncertainty to weigh on valuation in the near term. Target falls to 68c from $1.10.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.07
If MMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MYR as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse retains bearish forecasts for discretionary retailers but upgrades Myer to Neutral from Underperform. Target is 44c.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

APLNG cash flows were slightly ahead of Citi's expectations. The break-even operating oil price is now calculated at US$21/bbl.

Citi downgrades FY19 estimates for earnings per share by -7% because of non-cash provision charges associated with the Osborne remediation.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $7.78 from $7.58.

Target price is $7.78 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORG as Add (1) -

Morgans notes APLNG will distribute $943m of cash to Origin Energy in FY19, which highlights the increased capacity to lift the dividend. The broker does not believe the market has fully priced in an increase to the dividend, and this should be clearer at the results in three weeks time.

The broker is confident that the strong performance at APLNG and the outlook for oil and FX will be supportive for a number of years, despite the headwinds from energy markets. Add maintained. Target is raised to $8.37 from $8.04.

Target price is $8.37 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.52
If ORG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett believes strong cash flowing from APLNG in FY19 could be overshadowed by earnings downgrades. The broker reduces net profit estimates by -15%, ahead of the results on August 22.

The broker also expects energy market operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance for FY20 will be -10-20% lower. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target is steady at $8.35.

Target price is $8.35 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $0.5
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

The distribution from APLNG for FY19 was 11% ahead of guidance. Sales revenue was 5% of ahead of UBS estimates, largely because of higher domestic gas revenue, as more was diverted to the east coast market.

This demonstrates APLNG's ability to swing gas supply to wherever there is greater value. The main surprise for the broker was a $160-180m provision to remediate an old gasworks site in South Australia.

This is likely to drag on future cash flow. FY19-21 estimates are reduced by -3-10% as a result. Buy rating and $8.85 target maintained.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $7.85 Difference: $1
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.38, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNL as Outperform (1) -

The delay of Paringa's first production and sales means the company may need to seek a waiver or find a replacement sales agreement if it is to avoid a default on its loan facility, the broker warns. The delay was longer than anticipated.

The broker nevertheless believes the problem can be resolved given 100% of 2019 production has already been pre-sold and 75% of 2020. Outperform and 13c target retained.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.04
If PNL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RAP as Move to Speculative Buy from Add (1) -

Morgans awaits a number of clinical and regulatory milestones that are expected to drive investor interest over the next six months.

Underlying expenses remain well within forecasts and the broker notes sufficient funding is available for current programs.

Morgans moves its rating to Speculative Buy from Add and retains a 23c target.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.07
If RAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEA as Add (1) -

Morgans considers the June quarter production results support its positive view on Sundance Energy despite weakness in the share price.

The broker attributes the sell-off to concerns over the balance sheet, although the company is on track for positive cash flow in the December half year.

Add rating maintained and the target is lowered to $1.28 from $1.48.

Target price is $1.28 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $1.08
If SEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 540% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates URW as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes the company should weather e-commerce disruption better than its peers but is also at risk of a material asset re-pricing owing to bullish rent assumptions and tight valuation yields.

Combined with above-average gearing this suggests further downside risk. The first half results did not change the broker's view. Good footfall and retail sales growth was reported but like-for-like rental growth in the core continental shopping centre portfolios softened to 2.1%.

Morgan Stanley is convinced a material asset re-pricing is overdue and this will lead to an underwhelming return profile and put further downward pressure on the shares.

Underweight rating. Industry view In-Line. Price target is EUR115.

Current Price is $10.14. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $11.27, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates URW as Hold (3) -

First half results were better than Ord Minnett expected. Management remains confident, despite the tough retail market, expecting yields could expand further in the second half.

Still, the broker is cautious about the outlook for shopping centre values given broader retail headwinds. Dividend guidance has been reiterated at EUR10.8 per share.

Hold rating and $12.60 target maintained.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $10.14 Difference: $2.46
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.27, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WES as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse notes, while retail share prices appreciated strongly in the fourth quarter, retail trade remains subdued.

The broker believes the market has set earnings expectations low for most retailers and any misses will result in significant reductions to the share prices.

The broker downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is $33.41.

Target price is $33.41 Current Price is $39.74 Difference: minus $6.33 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.11, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WOW as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse notes, while retail share prices appreciated strongly in the fourth quarter, retail trade remains subdued.

The broker believes the market has set earnings expectations low for most retailers and any misses will result in significant reductions to the share prices.

The broker downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is $29.51.

Target price is $29.51 Current Price is $35.56 Difference: minus $6.05 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.23, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources