Australian Broker Call

UBS rates AGL as Buy (1) -

The company's presentation estimates the cost of replacing the entire thermal fleet with renewables plus batteries is $350bn, even assuming a 50-65% reduction in grid-level battery costs.

The company is a strong advocate for changing the National Electricity Market model to ensure an orderly closure of thermal generation, in order to avoid future price shocks, with an evolving network to cope with more distributed unit generation.

UBS expects a combination of new supply plus some level of demand destruction and some form of government intervention over the next couple of years. The broker believes the company is well-placed to benefit from higher electricity prices. Buy rating and $29.50 target retained.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.30 Difference: $2.2
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.99, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

First half cash earnings were below Citi's estimates.The broker observes weak core revenue undermined the final outcome and slower credit growth and divestments are expected to challenge future revenue.

The broker is confident the company can grow its earnings through significant capital initiatives following the completion of the divestment program and the finalisation of capital rules.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $31.00 from $31.50.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $32.25 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.15, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

In the wake of the first half results Credit Suisse downgrades earnings estimates by up to -2%.The broker observes continued delivery on cost and capital management was eclipsed by soft revenue.

The broker believes the stock remains an overbought restructuring story. Neutral retained. Target is $31.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $32.25 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.15, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

First half results were weaker than Deutsche Bank forecast. The broker observes strong progress in institutional run-off and this puts the bank in a good position to conduct capital management over the next two years.

Despite the benefit for achieving reductions in absolute costs, return on equity improvement appears to the broker to be priced in and a Hold rating is retained. Target is raised to $32.70 from $32.60.

Target price is $32.70 Current Price is $32.25 Difference: $0.45
If ANZ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.15, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

ANZ's result showed sound balance sheet trends and well-managed costs, the broker suggests, but a weak underlying revenue performance. Underlying earnings were around -1% below the broker's forecast, with lower bad debt provisioning providing an offset.

Recent announced divestments are also leading to earnings pressure so the broker anticipates further downside. But they should also add around another 85bps to an already solid 10.1% tier one capital ratio. Neutral and $32 target retained.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $32.25 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.15, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

The composition of the first half result was weaker than Morgan Stanley expected. The broker considers the major Australian banks are overvalued but likes ANZ's commitment to cost reductions, its strong capital position and sustainable pay-out ratio.

The broker's estimate for buy-backs in 2018-19 has been lifted to $6bn from $5bn in addition to neutralising the dividend reinvestment program.

Overweight retained. Sector view is In-Line. Price target is reduced to $30.00 from $30.50.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $32.25 Difference: minus $2.25 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.15, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

The bank reported an adjusted cash profit of $3.64bn for the first half, which beat Morgans' expectations.

The broker believes the result provides confirmation of a weaker underlying revenue trend, and continued competition in  Asian institutions will keep this trend under pressure.

Morgans reduces its cash earnings forecast by -3.7% for FY17 but makes no material changes to forecasts for FY18 and FY19. Hold retained. Target is $30.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $32.25 Difference: minus $2.25 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.15, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

While the share price weakened after the release of first half financial results, Ord Minnett believes this needs to be put in context, as banks are an expensive sector in search of upgrades and there were temporary factors in the results. The broker maintains an Accumulate recommendation and target of $32.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $32.25 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.15, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

UBS considers the first half result messy, as a large number of lumpy items distorted the picture. The broker believes investors should give the bank credit for strengthening its balance sheet. Yet, this comes at the expense of revenue power.

The sale of the Asian retail businesses will take effect from the second half, with the broker calculating around a -$88m hit to net profit.

Neutral rating retained. Target is raised to $30.50 from $29.00.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $32.25 Difference: minus $1.75 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.15, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AST as Hold (3) -

The final decision of the Australian Energy Regulator was weaker than Morgans anticipated. This results in downgrades to forecasts for EBITDA, free cash flow and credit metrics.

Nevertheless, the broker's investment view remains on a business-as-usual basis. Hold rating and $1.55 target retained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: minus $0.195 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWE as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

AWE's March Q production was in line with expectation but revenues were stronger, thanks to a better performance from BassGas, helping to offset the loss from the Tui sale. Macquarie believes the company lacks any near term revenue and production growth drivers; upside potential lies in the contracting of gas volumes in the tight east coast market.

Given the recent pullback in price, Macquarie upgrades to Neutral, suggesting valuation can be improved by the development of Trefoil and longer term contracting for Waitsia. Target unchanged at 55c.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.095
If AWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.56, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

The broker's review of the east coast gas market finds that while there is sufficient supply out to 2030, prices will continue to rise to meet export parity. The broker has thus substantially upgraded earnings forecast for BHP's Bass Strait gas project.

Ongoing high prices could lead to project extensions and the recent pullback in iron ore and coal prices has eroded earnings upside; the broker does not believe the stock is trading on demanding multiples. Outperform and $29 target retained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $23.76 Difference: $5.24
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.65, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates BLD as No Rating (-1) -

The company has maintained its guidance for FY17 EBIT to be higher than FY16. Guidance for continued earnings growth in the US has been retained, despite slightly lower US housing start expectations.

Forecast growth in US housing starts for FY17 has been downgraded marginally to 7% from 10%.

Deutsche Bank is restricted on rating and price target at this stage.

Current Price is $6.30. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Underperform (5) -

Beach's March Q production and revenue missed the broker on infrastructure delays and natural field declines. Expiry of legacy gas contracts led to a 6% increase in pricing. While the company continues to generate strong cash flows, the broker questions growth going forward as production in the western flank winds down.

The balance sheet is well funded for acquisitions, the broker notes, but Beach seems more focused on ramping up Cooper Basin exploration. Underperform retained. Target rises to 60c from 50c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: minus $0.105 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.70, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates FBU as Buy (1) -

The company has maintained FY17 EBIT guidance of NZ$610-650m. Deutsche Bank continues to expect 18% growth in EBIT for FY18.

The broker notes the macro position in New Zealand remains positive, with residential consents and migration strong, and infrastructure expenditure being supported by the government's announcement of a further NZ$11bn in funding over the next four years.

The broker maintains a Buy recommendation. Target is NZ$10.15.

Current Price is $7.82. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $9.00, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse updates estimates after its recent commodities update and the March quarter production. FY17 forecasts fall -14%, mainly on the back of revised price realisation guidance.

The broker notes its June quarter iron ore price of US$95/t is well out of the money and if this were to be reduced to US$70/t for the quarter, forecasts for earnings per share would fall another -13% for FY17.

Outperform rating and $7.35 target retained.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $2.08
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FXL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The company has lowered FY17 estimates for net profit to $90-93m from $90-97m because of underperformance at Certegy. Citi reduces forecasts for FY17-19 by -5-8% and factors in increased expenditure in Ireland.

Citi has become incrementally less certain regarding Certegy as analysis reveals online competitors are being pulled in-store. Afterpay ((AFY)) and Zipmoney ((ZML)) are lower cost and easier to use offerings versus Certegy.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $2.47 from $2.75.

Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.23
If FXL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates FXL as Buy (1) -

The company has downgraded its guidance range for net profit to be $90-93m versus $90-97m previously.  At the mid point, Deutsche Bank observes, this implies a downgrade of -2%.

The update highlighted that Certegy is trading below expectations, which in the broker's view reflects the mature profile of the business as well as increasing competition.

Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and lowers the target to $2.60 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.36
If FXL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FXL as Neutral (3) -

The main point of note from Flexigroup's presentation to the Macquarie Conference was that following a record December, Certegy has taken a turn for the worse. This is concerning for the broker given the business' contribution to profitability and organic growth.

Given a succession of guidance downgrades and little to no organic growth over recent years, the broker does not believe low valuation suggests a re-rate. Neutral retained. Target falls to $2.18 from $2.28.

Target price is $2.18 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If FXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMA as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Despite the risk of positive news emerging from the company's scheduled update, UBS is downgrading to Sell from Neutral.

The broker believes the investment case will become a tussle between the positive capital return profile and earnings risk that is expected to arise from negative operating leverage and a normalised credit cycle.

Target is reduced to $2.60 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If GMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GXL as Neutral (3) -

Greencross' presentation to the Macquarie Conference highlighted further opportunities that can be realised from the company's integrated pet care model. The vet division is three times large than the nearest competitor.

But while guidance was maintained, the broker has downgraded forecast earnings by -7% to reflect tougher competitive and consumer environments. The broker retains neutral to reflect a premium multiple. Target falls to $7.10 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $0.2
If GXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.97, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IEL as Initiation of coverage with Underperform (5) -

Despite attractive industry fundamentals in international education and a strong track record for growth, Credit Suisse considers the stock expensive, given exposure to regulatory changes in student placement and multiple risks in testing.

Overall, the broker is relatively optimistic on the near term prospects for the student placement business as government policy is broadly supportive and industry fundamentals are solid.

Yet, the broker is aware that Australian placement volumes fell -40% from FY09-12 because of adverse immigration policy changes and the current political rhetoric may be moving in an unhelpful direction.

The broker initiates coverage with a Underperform rating and $4.00 target.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.65 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If IEL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.44, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett believes the company is entering a period of significant growth in earnings amid strong cash flow, setting the scene for a return of capital in FY18.

The broker upgrades to Buy from Hold and raises the target to $4.25 from $3.30.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.6
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Equal-weight (3) -

Sales growth of 6.7% in the March quarter was delivered and the company has guided to FY17 EBITDA being 8.5-11.3% above consensus.Morgan Stanley  observes margins are tracking stronger than expected.

The company has also announced the acquisition of 17 stores in South Africa which will be re-branded. The broker expects a contribution from FY18.

Equal-weight rating and In-Line industry view maintained. Target is raised to $4.05 from $3.55.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.31
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGC as Neutral (3) -

Following a review in response to declining milk intake, MG announced the closure of its manufacturing sites as expected. To restore loyalty and milk supply, the trust will forgive farmer debts. Assets have been written down.

None of which surprised the broker. The surprise came in the suspension of the dividend to preserve cash, despite the balance sheet not being stretched. But the broker believes the measures will improve competitiveness and profitability and stabilise the business model.

The macro backdrop remains positive. Target falls to $1.05 from $1.15. Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.26
If MGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MGC as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The company has completed its asset and footprint review. Morgans observes unit holders, as opposed to suppliers or shareholders, will bear the brunt of the company's announcements, which are expected to lower its cost base so that it can pay a more competitive farm-gate milk price.

This highlights to the broker a mis-alignment of interests between the two. The quantum of write-downs was also larger than expected and the board has suspended the dividend.

Therefore, unit holders are no longer paid to wait for new management to turn the business around, and with no dividend yield support the broker believes the share price will trade sideways.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add. Target is reduced to $1.00 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.11
If MGC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

The company continues to outperform in the Australian furniture sector and gain market share. Citi observes double-digit like-for-like sales growth for the first four months of the second half.

The rolling out of stores is set to increase in FY18. The broker expects this roll-out, plus an expansion into New Zealand, will drive earnings as the tailwinds from the housing cycle are reduced.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $8.41 from $8.20.

Target price is $8.41 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: $1.33
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Nick Scali's presentation at the Macquarie Conference highlighted the continuation of positive trading conditions through April, double digit sales growth and an expected boost from new store openings, including the NZ expansion. The company is open to acquisitions but revealed no plans.

The broker has adjusted longer term margin assumptions, leading to an increase in forecast earnings and a lift in target to $7.75 from $7.60. Outperform retained.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: $0.67
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORE as Add (1) -

March quarter production at Olaroz was in line with the downwardly-revised guidance for the June half. Margins were strong, Morgans observes.

The broker notes the stock is heavily shorted, with the players probably suspecting that there is a capital raising for capacity expansion to follow, despite management stating that development will be matched to cash flow.

Morgans retains an Add rating and reduces the target to $5.36 from $5.39.

Target price is $5.36 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $2.2
If ORE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Price re-sets and input cost hikes are limiting growth and making the earnings outlook for Orica less attractive than Incitec Pivot ((IPL)), in Ord Minnett's opinion.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $16.80 from $15.80.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $18.66 Difference: minus $1.86 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.57, suggesting downside of -11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates PGH as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The company has reiterated full year guidance for underlying earnings growth but warned that demand conditions are subdued and April was particularly weak in the rigid packaging business.

Deutsche Bank downgrades to Hold from Buy as the stock is trading at a 9% premium to its revised valuation. Target is lowered to $6.80 from $7.20.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $7.38 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If PGH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse updates earnings estimates post a recent commodities update and the March quarter production. Estimates for earnings retreat -5% for FY17 on revised copper guidance but rise in the outer periods on a more bullish view around aluminium.

Outperform retained. Target is $72.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $59.96 Difference: $12.04
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.63, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

The company has taken a 15% stake in Arizona Mining  for US$80m. Credit Suisse observes there are no plans to increase the stake, although the company has protection to manage dilution.

Outperform rating and $2.95 target retained.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.2
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add after a period of outperformance. The broker likes the long-term story but would prefer to buy the stock at lower levels.

The broker believes the company is on track to deliver many more years of double-digit earnings growth. There are no changes to forecasts. Target is steady at $16.56.

Target price is $16.56 Current Price is $17.23 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.05, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIQ as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The company will acquire AccessPay for $15m. Citi forecasts the acquisition to be 4% accretive in FY18.

The broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral on the back of the acquisition, finding several reasons to buy the stock as it has grown novated leases at 22% and this is expected to continue through both M&A and organic growth.

Margins have also expanded through increased scale and operating efficiencies. Target is raised to $7.33 from $6.61.

Target price is $7.33 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: $0.84
If SIQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.10, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -

Pump failures led to a production and revenue miss for Senex in the March Q. Oil production guidance has been lowered. On the other hand, de-watering has led to gas sales commencing ahead of the broker's expectation.

The broker believes there remains downside risk in the oil business, but retains Outperform on potential upside from the company's CSG acreage. Target unchanged at 35c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.055
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SYD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The company has decided not to participate in the Western Sydney Airport. Citi believes the decision is in the best interest of shareholders and highlights a disciplined approach to capital allocation.

Having analysed various multi-airport systems in the world, Citi has not seen any erosion in the pricing power of the primary airport but an improvement in the underlying passenger mix.

While earnings estimates are unchanged, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy and reduces the target to $7.02 from $7.14.

Target price is $7.02 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYD as Overweight (1) -

The Australian government will go it alone and build the second Sydney airport at Badgery's Creek, as Sydney Airport has declined the opportunity.

Morgan Stanley is not surprised by the outcome and believes the company's growth outlook will be attractive to investors, now there is clarity on the near-term investment intentions.

The broker's longer-term base case estimates Kingsford Smith Airport will incorporate marginal passenger losses when Western Sydney Airport operates from the late 2020s.

Morgan Stanley retains a Overweight rating, $7.07 target and Cautious industry view.

Target price is $7.07 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: $0.02
If SYD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYD as Neutral (3) -

The company's decision not to accept the offer to develop and operate the western Sydney airport should not surprise the market, UBS observes. This is because the economics without funding assistance from the government were extremely challenging.

The broker believes it likely the government will proceed alone with the project and look to monetise the operations closer to opening in 2026.

The likely loss of its monopoly position in the Sydney aeronautical basin is a longer-term negative for the stock but the broker believes the market will be relieved that the funding risk to cash flow over the next nine years has been removed.

A Neutral rating is retained. Target is $6.60.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes the current retail sales environment and lack of development leasing commentary will continue to overshadow the company's portfolio initiatives.

The broker observes guidance has been re-confirmed for FY17 but retail sales are deteriorating and exaggerated by various factors.

Neutral rating and $3.05 target retained.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.12
If VCX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.06, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VOC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

With revenue falling short of expectations Citi no longer has confidence that the company will be able to deliver on the full potential of its recently combined businesses.

The broker downgrades FY17-19 forecasts for earnings per share by -22-28%. The company has downgraded FY17 EBITDA guidance by -17%, citing multiple issues, including an accounting review of contract terms and larger than forecasts billings.

Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $6.00.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $0.05
If VOC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting upside of 96.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates VOC as Buy (1) -

The company has lowered FY17 guidance for underlying EBITDA to $365-375m, down -16% at the mid point.

The downgrade has been caused by the combination of some project revenue being recognised in future periods, divestments of some businesses and lower-than-expected billings.

This is now the second reduction to FY17 guidance, so Deutsche Bank expects the market to be more wary of any projections made by management. Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and $7.05 target.

Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $3.7
If VOC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting upside of 96.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VOC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The company has reduced FY17 guidance following an accounting review of contracts. Ord Minnett believes the company's national fibre network assets, low market share and steady consumer broadband margins position it well in an otherwise challenging sector.

Nevertheless, the continued exodus of senior managers and numerous accounting revisions force the broker to the sidelines. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target to $3.50 from $5.25.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $0.15
If VOC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting upside of 96.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VOC as Buy (1) -

The new FY17 guidance for EBITDA is now $365-375m, around -16% below prior guidance. UBS observes half of the downgrade relates to an accounting review and the other half to genuine underperformance in operations.

While the company is within its covenants at present, the broker observes potential for FY18 metrics to deteriorate because of negative earnings momentum in the second half FY17 and potential capital expenditure.

The broker expects the market to react harshly to the latest downgrade and retains a Buy rating and $5.00 target, which are both under review pending today's conference call with management.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $1.65
If VOC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting upside of 96.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Like-for-like sales increased by 4.5% on an Easter-adjusted basis in the March quarter. Citi observes this is not coming at the expense of margins, which are expected to expand in the second half.

Losses at Big W are now set to widen and the broker does not expect a return to profitability until FY20.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $28.10 from $27.40.

Target price is $28.10 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: $0.75
If WOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.56, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WOW as Underperform (5) -

Food retailing strengthened in the March quarter ahead of Credit Suisse expectations. Increased losses from Big W and an uncertain turnaround create a large downside risk, in the broker's opinion.

The broker notes balance-sheet flexibility to address Big W underperformance hinges largely on the ACCC approving the sale of fuel, which will not be known until July.

The broker considers the stock expensive and retains an Underperform rating. Target rises to $24.83 from $24.50.

Target price is $24.83 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: minus $2.52 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.56, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates WOW as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank finds evidence in the March quarter that investments are garnering returns. The broker believes reduced stock loss, supply support and, now, operating leverage will provide the firepower to make incremental investment while still expanding margins.

The broker notes management was reticent to provide detail about its Big W plan, given trading losses are becoming larger, which provides little confidence in a turnaround. Buy retained. Target rises to $29 from $28.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: $1.65
If WOW meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.56, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Woolworths' strong March Q sales highlight the benefits of price reinvestment and improved store execution over the last 18 months, Macquarie suggests. A positive result in NZ should not be overlooked either. Big W nevertheless remains a drag, and the broker suggests both Big W and Target need to validate their economic viability soon.

Despite the impressive sales improvement, Macquarie believes the market is pricing in an unlikely earnings recovery in food in the face of increasing competition. Downgrade to Underperform. Target lifts to $26.20 from $25.60.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.56, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes the sales recovery continues and, while there is little risk for near-term earnings disappointment, the stock's rich valuation reflects too steep an earnings recovery, suggest the analysts.

The broker also notes the company has worn for the second time in four months that Big W losses are widening and the second half loss is now expected to be -$115-135m, up from prior indications it would be no greater than -$88m. This leads Morgan Stanley to question whether this business is actually a liability, given the significant long-dated lease liabilities.

Underweight retained. In-Line industry view. Target is $22.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: minus $5.35 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.56, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WOW as Reduce (5) -

March quarter sales were broadly in line with Morgans. Australian food sales increased 5.6%, adjusted for Easter. The broker notes March quarter growth outpaced the prior two quarters and it appears the company is turning  the business around and gathering momentum.

Morgans rolls forward its model to FY18 forecasts and increases the target to $23.57 from $21.45. Reduce maintained.

Target price is $23.57 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: minus $3.78 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.56, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOW as Accumulate (2) -

Like-for-like sales growth of 4.5% in the March quarter was ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker was disappointed with the increase in second half losses for Big W.

Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate recommendation and target of $30. The broker is confident a turnaround in food is occurring and can be sustained.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: $2.65
If WOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.56, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Buy (1) -

March quarter sales were solid, UBS observes, with stronger Australian food and New Zealand business offset by another disappointment in Big W.

The broker believes the outlook is positive, with momentum likely to continue on improved execution, which should narrow the gap to Coles ((WES)) across key metrics. Buy rating and $28.80 retained.

Target price is $28.80 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: $1.45
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.56, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources