Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

Citi expects safe-haven demand for infrastructure stocks from increased volatility related to trade tensions.

The broker's top pick is Auckland International Airport due to the outlook for passenger volume recovery and medium-term earnings growth from the capex program. The broker also likes the stock for its strong 8% DPS yield.

Buy. Target NZ$9.80.

Current Price is $7.28. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AL3 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights AML3D as a key beneficiary of new US tariffs and reshoring policy, which are expected to accelerate demand for additive manufacturing in defence, shipbuilding, and industrial sectors.

The broker notes AML3D’s collaboration with US defence contractors and alignment with the Navy’s manufacturing needs positions it to benefit directly from nearly US$1bn in additive manufacturing (AM)-related shipbuilding investment.

N.B. The US Department of Defense is a major adopter of AM, citing it as a national security imperative.

The analyst expects the company's Arcemy systems to be increasingly deployed in the US as the Navy integrates 3D-printed metal parts into submarine programs, citing AML3D’s unique capabilities to deliver fast, certifiable components.

Shaw maintains a Buy, High Risk rating and a 40c target price. 

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.24
If AL3 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -

Commenting after the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, Macquarie notes ALS Ltd derived 35% of 1H revenue from the Americas with the company particularly strong in Canada.

The broker sees limited direct tariff impacts but slowing global growth is a headwind. 

Outperform rating. Target $16.25.

Target price is $16.25 Current Price is $15.52 Difference: $0.73
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.83, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts expect the cyclical recovery in Australia to remain intact despite 10% reciprocal tariffs by the US but see a more dovish RBA in the near term. The analysts have maintained their -25bps rate cut forecasts for May and August.

The broker sees infrastructure names benefitting from lower finance costs and safe haven demand from increased volatility.

The broker will watch the exchange rate space, as currency depreciation could be a negative for offshore earners like Atlas Arteria.

Buy. Target $5.70.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $0.84
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Commenting after the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, Macquarie notes Amcor operates a highly localised business model supported by a broad global manufacturing footprint.

In the US, around 90% of its resin raw materials are sourced domestically, and exports of finished goods to offshore markets are minimal.

Target $18.20. Outperform.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $15.35 Difference: $2.85
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.88, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has trimmed its earnings forecasts for AMP by -4–6% through to FY27, following a soft equity market and underwhelming 2024 result.

While the broker acknowledges some value after the sharp share price retreat in 2025, it maintains a Hold rating, citing risks from ongoing class action proceedings and uncertainty around the group’s turnaround.

The price target has been cut to $1.55 from $1.70. Broader sector revisions included modest downgrades for IAG and Suncorp, while Computershare and QBE saw minor upgrades. EPS forecasts for AMP have been lowered across all forecast years.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.365
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 41.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley explains Sri Lanka and Malaysia represent the most sizeable manufacturing and sourcing locations for Ansell, with less contribution from Thailand, India, and Vietnam.

The broker highlights the reciprocal tariffs generate downside risks to gross profit and earnings for the company, with a potential pre-tax headwind of around -US$180m in FY26.

The analyst believes the company's response to tariff impacts, such as price increases and pass-through of costs, will be the major factor impacting consensus earnings forecasts.

Target $37.20 and Equal-weighted rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $29.34 Difference: $7.86
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.21, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett is holding fire on any changes to Ansell’s forecasts while it assesses the potential impact of a fresh round of US tariffs, which hit the group’s Malaysian, Thai and Sri Lankan imports with rates as high as 44%.

The broker sees a wide range of outcomes depending on how much of the added cost can be passed through to customers — with a worst-case hit to FY26 profit of up to -28%.

Ansell is exploring shifting production to lower-tariff countries but hasn’t made any formal disclosure. The Hold rating and $36.20 price target are unchanged, and earnings forecasts have not been updated (at this stage).

Target price is $36.20 Current Price is $29.34 Difference: $6.86
If ANN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.21, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes APRA has entered into an enforceable undertaking for ANZ Bank relating to non-financial risk management practices and risk culture, whereby the bank's risk capital overlay has increased by around 5bps or $2,350m.

The broker believes the non-financial risk issues have been "well flagged" in the market, and as part of the work with the EU, ANZ has appointed an independent reviewer to complete a Group-wide assessment of the causes and drivers of behavioural issues.

Unchanged Equal-weight rating and $29.30 target price. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $29.30 Current Price is $29.25 Difference: $0.05
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.95, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

UBS reconsiders the outlook for ANZ Bank in the run-up to the bank's 1H25 earnings report on May 8.

The analyst adjusts estimates for the full impact of Suncorp Bank, which increases expected operating expenses by around 4% for FY25–FY27. This results in a downgrade to EPS forecasts by -5% for FY25–FY27, with the broker below consensus estimates.

UBS also lowers the expected dividend payments by -7.5% for FY25–FY27, with an accompanying downgrade in the target price to $31 from $34. Neutral rating retained.

The forecasts include the APRA enforceable undertaking of additional capital of $1bn.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $29.25 Difference: $1.75
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.95, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

A rebound in new car sales in March, following two months of decline, bodes well for ARB Corp, Citi notes.

The broker maintains its cautious view due to BYD Shark 6 ute taking over rising share of the PU/CC 4x4 market.

ARB doesn't have accessories for such car models.

The broker believes the other risk is underperformance of ARB's key model Hilux as consumers wait for the new model in 2026.

Neutral. Target price $39.54.

Target price is $39.54 Current Price is $30.66 Difference: $8.88
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.95, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating on ARB Corp with a $45 price target, highlighting resilience in key vehicle sales despite a broader slowdown.

March figures showed a 5.5% rise in ARB’s target vehicle segments, supported by strong growth in SUVs and light commercial vehicles.

While headline new vehicle sales have softened, this is partly due to tough comps from record FY24 volumes.

The broker sees offsetting tailwinds from ARB’s order book, store rollouts and offshore growth. Forecasts are unchanged, with modest earnings growth expected through to FY27.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $30.66 Difference: $14.34
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.95, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie finds Aurizon Holdings' planned $500m holdco hybrid issuance a bit curious, given its higher funding costs.

The broker anticipates a spread of 250-300bps over 90-day due to the coal mix, but reckons this is lower than companies like APA Group ((APA)) which issued at 9.2%.

The broker expects 50% of the funds to be loaned to the network and the balance as equity, thus helping lower the net debt to regulatory asset base ratio to 55-60% from 65%.

Revisions made to EPS forecasts based on recent draft network pricing, with FY25 estimate increased by 0.2% and FY26 raised by 2.2%.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $3.41.

Target price is $3.41 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.32
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie revised forecasts for Bank of Queensland ahead of 1H25 result on April 16, incorporating a wider margin estimate due to more lending shifting towards business loans.

However, this was partly offset by higher cost inflation, leading to the FY25 estimate declining by -1% but FY26 lifted by 2%. The broker has factored in the OMB acquisition that was completed in March.

Underperform. Target unchanged at $5.75.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $6.77 Difference: minus $1.02 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes earnings risk for Breville Group is rising for FY26 due to tariffs on countries it was increasingly sourcing from, apart from likely reducing spending capacity from US consumers.

The impact will be felt by Breville Group's competitors too, the broker notes, but its focus on mid-to-higher end makes it more vulnerable as consumers will likely move to cheaper brands in an inflationary environment.

Neutral. Target $38.2.

Target price is $38.20 Current Price is $30.05 Difference: $8.15
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.64, suggesting upside of 42.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

UBS stresses the full net impact of tariffs on Breville Group remains highly uncertain, but the analyst assumes a base case whereby gross profit forecast declines by -7% in FY26 and EPS estimates decline by -11%.

The company currently generates 45% of sales in the US, of which 90% of its product is sourced from China, with the aim to transfer 80% of that production out of China by the end of 2025 to SE Asia, which is impacted by tariffs, and Mexico, which is tariff exempt at this stage.

The broker does not know what the percentage allocation between manufacturing across the two geographies is at this stage.

UBS highlights the impact of Trump's first tariff cycle was not so severe, and at this stage the longer-term story for Breville remains. However, the stock is not offering "compelling value" given the tariff and industry uncertainty.

Target price is lowered by -11.5% to $33.10, with no change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $33.10 Current Price is $30.05 Difference: $3.05
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.64, suggesting upside of 42.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has left its earnings forecasts and $7.00 price target for Challenger unchanged, following a sector-wide review after a soft March quarter in equity markets.

While the group was less affected than others, minor EPS downgrades of -0.1% to -0.3% have been applied.

The broker retains a Buy rating, highlighting steady performance in the face of market volatility and stable forward expectations.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.86 Difference: $1.14
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter updated realised prices for Champion Iron for the March quarter and made some adjustments to price estimates. No change to the iron ore price outlook of US$98/t, but the broker sees downside risk from the tariffs impact.

The March quarter iron ore prices averaged US$103/t versus the broker's US$100/t forecast. The analyst raised near-term costs and sustaining capital forecasts, and allowed for higher risks to growth projects due to medium-term commodity price uncertainty.

EBITDA forecasts for FY25 and FY26 cut by -10%. EPS forecast trimmed for FY25 by -19% and by -14% for FY26.

Buy maintained. Target drops to $6.20 from $7.10.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $1.65
If CIA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has made minor upward revisions to its forecasts for Computershare, citing favourable movements in forward rate curves.

EPS forecasts have risen by up to 2.9% across the forecast period, with no change to the $42 price target or Hold rating.

While Computershare remains a leveraged play on interest rates, the broker sees the current valuation as fair. No change was made to dividend or cash flow forecasts.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $37.95 Difference: $4.05
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.99, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EQT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has lowered earnings forecasts for EQT Holdings by -3–6% across FY25–FY27, citing market volatility, and has reduced the price target to $35 from $36.

The broker reports the investor briefing confirmed the firm’s niche positioning and long-term growth potential, with FUMAS up 3.2% over Jan–Feb.

Growth was strongest in corporate trustee services, while the philanthropic and Native Title segments also remain key focus areas.

Despite short-term headwinds, the broker retains a Buy rating, pointing to cost savings, new mandates and low client churn as structural strengths. Forecasts for revenue, earnings and dividends have all been revised lower.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.22 Difference: $2.78
If EQT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter believes GenusPlus Group's acquisition agreement for 100% of MGC Group Holdings (WA) Pty Ltd was struck at an attractive price, estimating it at 2.3x 2027 EBITDA.

The upfront payment is -$10.25m, with up to -$10.5m in contingent payments based on the achievement of 2025-2027 EBITDA milestones.

The broker notes the deal multiple compares with the company's multiple of 5.7-7.5x FY25-27 EBITDA estimates before the acquisition announcement.

Buy. Target lifted to $3.30 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.58
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has cut its FY25 earnings forecast for Insurance Australia Group by -6%, reflecting equity market weakness, but maintains an accumulate rating and $9.15 price target.

The broker continues to favour IAG as its top general insurance pick, citing a defensive earnings profile, capital management potential and M&A optionality.

While near-term macro risks remain, the insurer's valuation is seen as reasonable, with the group trading on 17x forward earnings. Forecasts for FY26 and beyond remain unchanged.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $7.79 Difference: $1.36
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLS as No Rating (-1) -

Kelsian Group is considering the sale of its Australian portfolio of tourism assets to "streamline the business, reduce debt, and improve shareholder value", Macquarie highlights.

The assets generated revenue in excess of $160m in FY24 and include Fraser Island, K'gari resorts, tours and ferry, SeaLink Sydney Harbour, Murray Princess, Adelaide Sightseeing, SeaLink WA, SeaLink Whitsundays, SeaLink TAS and NT.

Funds raised would be employed to lower debt, the broker explains, and invest in growth opportunities.

Macquarie is on research restrictions. No change to the broker's EPS forecasts.

Current Price is $2.65. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.30, suggesting upside of 70.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Light & Wonder published its internal findings that some designers had access to some of Aristocrat Leisure's ((ALL)) customer information sheets dated 2015.

The company has expanded the internal audit to include hold and spin games released before mid-2021, though the broker believes it is unlikely the litigation will expand to other material titles.

The next earnings call is in May when the company is expected to provide the review findings. Buy. Target intact at $200.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $141.85 Difference: $58.15
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $202.60, suggesting upside of 52.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Sell (5) -

Citi believes the tariffs announcement by the Trump administration will hurt Lovisa Holdings via two main channels:

The company's sales in the US will be impacted by consumers likely pulling back on spending in the tariff-driven inflationary environment. The broker notes 22% of the company's stores were located in the US in 1H25.

The other headwind is likely at the gross margin level as the company sources the majority of its products from China, India and Thailand, which have been slapped with 34%, 26% and 36% reciprocal tariffs, respectively.

Sell. Target $25.86.

Target price is $25.86 Current Price is $23.04 Difference: $2.82
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.25, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Lynas Rare Earths as a potential beneficiary of renewed US focus on critical minerals, following an executive order by President Trump aimed at reshoring defence supply chains.

The broker maintains a Buy rating and $7.80 price target, pointing at Lynas’ positioning with its Texas separation plant and potential to supply rare earths from Malaysia in the interim.

Construction delays in the US are expected to ease now that key officials are in place. No changes have been made to forecasts, though the broker sees upside if US policy support accelerates.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.07 Difference: $0.73
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.88, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MPL as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded Medibank Private to accumulate from buy, citing valuation after an 8% share price rally since mid-March.

The broker continues to see Medibank as a solid option for investors seeking defensive earnings exposure.

Health insurers were relatively insulated from recent equity market weakness, and forecasts for Medibank remain unchanged. The price target holds steady at $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.22
If MPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has reiterated its buy rating on nib Holdings, keeping the $7.65 price target in place.

The stock remains the broker's top pick among health insurers, with the sector proving resilient during the recent equity market sell-off.

Forecasts have been raised slightly, with EPS upgrades of 0.5-1% across the forecast period. Valuation remains appealing given consistent earnings delivery and strong capital position.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $0.75
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.86, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Post discussions with industry participants at a data centre conference in Melbourne, Citi highlights Microsoft could have recently cancelled two 40MW contracts in Sydney, but the discussions revealed these were likely options or letters of intent rather than contracts and relate to the change in relationship with OpenAI.

Additionally, the broker explains Microsoft is taking more time to award new contracts, and from the perspective of NextDC, this news is potentially a negative factor.

The analyst is forecasting Microsoft takes additional capacity in Melbourne, so this may not be earnings positive, although Oracle's partnership with OpenAI may see Oracle lift its limited data centre footprint in Australia.

Citi remains Buy rated on NextDC with a $18.70 target price, awaiting more details around the longer-term demand outlook.

Buy rated with an $18.70 target.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $11.38 Difference: $7.32
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.68, suggesting upside of 86.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Commenting after the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, Macquarie notes Saverglass comprises 50% of Orora's FY25 earnings (EBIT). 

The broker observes direct glass sales from the EU and Mexico into the US account for 4% and 7% of Saverglass revenue, respectively, and highlights some flexibility to shift production to the lower-cost RAK facility in the UAE to help offset the impact of tariffs.

The analyst considers a 20% EU tariff manageable for Saverglass, citing relatively low demand elasticity at that level based on Brown-Forman’s 2019 experience in the US spirits market.

Nonetheless, Citi point to the risk of EU retaliation and tariff escalation, with any reintroduction of previously threatened 200% US duties on EU spirits and wine representing a significantly larger downside scenario.

Outperform rating. Target $2.42.

Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.595
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Following the announcement of new tariffs by the Trump administration, Macquarie notes there is some cross-border movement of Orica product, such as AN and IS, from Canada and Mexico/Peru into the US.

The broker, however, points out this flow of goods is not material to the group’s overall earnings, noting here are also price mechanisms in contracts for tariff recovery.

Outperform. Target $20.91.

Target price is $20.91 Current Price is $16.85 Difference: $4.06
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.09, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie marks-to-market 1Q25 for QBE Insurance and estimates gross written premium in constant currency will rise by 5.5% in FY25 compared to mid-single-digit guidance, including an expected forex headwind of around 120bps.

The analyst forecasts the insurer's core operating ratio at 92.6% compared to guidance of 92.5%, which includes an additional circa $40m in reserve strengthening, or 20bps, with catastrophes expected to be in line with guidance at $1,160m.

Macquarie lowers FY25 EPS forecast by -4.9% and lifts FY26 by 1.7%, and 3%, 8% for FY27, FY28 respectively, for mark-to-markets on investment income and forex assumptions.

Target price slips to $23 from $23.20, and Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.96 Difference: $1.04
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.35, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has slightly downgraded its earnings forecasts for QBE Insurance, trimming FY25–FY27 EPS by up to -1.5% on the back of forward rate curve movements.

While the broker sees upside, it flags macroeconomic uncertainty and international pricing risk as constraints.

The hold rating is retained, along with the revised price target of $24.50, up from $23.00. No changes have been made to dividend forecasts.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $21.96 Difference: $2.54
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.35, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RGN as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Region Group's on-market buyback of up to $100m securities on issue would be NTA accretive given the security currently trades at a -13% discount to the latest reported NTA.

The buyback will start no later than April 22, and is being funded from $76m proceeds of retail shopping centre sale and existing cash and undrawn debt facilities.

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.25
If RGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIC as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Ridley Corp has some exposure to US tariffs on Australian imports, through two businesses that might be exposed to the 10% tariffs.

Ocean Meat Processors is expected to generate FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $13m; all the sales are exports to the US, and tallow at around $10m in FY25 earnings estimates in export sales to the US.

The broker highlights Ridley has between $20m–$23m in exposed earnings (EBITDA) to the US tariffs, but the potential impact is challenging to assess at this stage.

Buy rating with $2.90 target price unchanged.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.34
If RIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Outperform (1) -

Ramelius Resources announced preliminary 3Q25 results, including production of 80.5koz, which was above Macquarie's estimate by 9% and above consensus by 4%, with robust output from Mt Magnet and Edna May, the analyst details.

Pre-tax free cash flow came in at $223m, which was higher than the broker's estimate by 21% and 7% above consensus forecast.

Cash and gold balance finished the period up at $657m from $501.7m in the previous quarter.

Macquarie lifts FY25 EPS forecast by 7% and FY26 by 10%, with an accompanying rise in the target price of 4% to $2.60.

No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.18
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Citi analyst is keeping Sandfire Resources on a negative watch, given the broker's view LME copper prices might pull back following an end to the US tariff-arbitrage trades.

Rating retained at Neutral due to the company's -7-10% underperformance vs global peers and the broker's medium-term bullish view on copper.

Target unchanged at $10.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: $0.95
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.62, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFX as Hold (3) -

Sheffield Resources delivered a record quarter for zircon sales, with 82kt sold in March --more than all prior quarters combined-- driving an estimated $9m in positive free cash flow.

The broker comments the result was supported by a broader customer base, though ilmenite sales fell short due to a delayed shipment.

Ord Minnett has raised its target price to 19c from 16c and maintains a Hold rating, seeing potential in further stockpile sales and an upcoming business improvement plan.

The broker still expects a debt restructure will be needed. Earnings forecasts have been updated.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If SFX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts expect the cyclical recovery in Australia to remain intact despite 10% reciprocal tariffs by the US but see a more dovish RBA in the near term. The analysts have maintained their -25bps rate cut forecasts for May and August.

The broker sees infrastructure names benefitting from lower finance costs and safe haven demand from increased volatility.

The broker will watch the exchange rate space as currency depreciation could be a negative for Transurban Group.

Neutral. Target $13.80.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $13.53 Difference: $0.27
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.49, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TEA as Add (1) -

Morgans estimates Tasmea's total acquisition price for Flance Group is -$43m or 4.2x EBIT based on -$27m upfront payment and additional earn-out payments, and its expectation of no uncapped performance payments.

The company will fund the acquisition via $24m debt facility but expects to remain within the 1x leverage ratio target, given strong cash flow forecasts.

The broker revised forecasts to include the purchase, which lifted FY25 EBIT and EPS forecasts by 2% (deal completion targeted for May). For FY26, EPS forecasts increased by 8% and EBIT by 11%.

ADD maintained. Target lifted to $3.80 from $3.65.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $1.2
If TEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TEA as Upgrade to Buy High Risk from Hold High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners raises its target for Tasmea to $3.00 from $2.85 and upgrades to Buy, High Risk from Hold, High Risk following a material share price pullback since November 2024 and the announcement of the highly accretive Flanco Group acquisition.

The Flanco deal is both attractive and strategically sensible, in the broker's opinion, priced at an implied earnings (EBIT) multiple of 3.1-4.1x times depending on earnout outcomes.

The broker now assumes $10.2m in FY26 earnings from the acquisition, lifting EPS forecasts by 11.8% for FY26 and 11.7% for FY27. 

Tasmea operates in the asset maintenance sector, which the broker considers structurally attractive due to the preventive nature of maintenance demand, providing earnings resilience across cycles.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.4
If TEA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley envisages "limited" risks from tariffs for Treasury Wine Estates but highlights the potential for a softer US consumer to impact.

The analyst details around 85% of the company's earnings before interest and tax for the US division is produced in the US, and the total represents around 36% of group earnings before interest and tax.

The US government's decision around additional EU wine tariffs of up to 200% is expected to be announced on April 14.

The target price remains at $12.90. Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $8.95 Difference: $3.95
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.42, suggesting upside of 44.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi revised forecasts for Woodside Energy to reflect Greater Angustura sell-down. The broker cut FY25 net profit forecast by -1.5% and FY26 by -4.8%.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $24.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.48 Difference: $1.52
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.60, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources