Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Following a meeting with management at Life360, Citi lowers its 1Q26 monthly active users (MAU) growth forecast to 18% year-on-year. It's noted US app data in February showed no uplift despite increased marketing activity.

The broker's target price is reduced to $32.20 from $40.75. Buy rating retained.

While MAU and Paying Circle trends remain strong, international markets are thought to present more uncertainty.

The broker suggests investor focus will now shift from headline MAU growth to core market MAU trends, given stronger revenue contribution from subscriptions and advertising.

The analysts expect several growth levers including feature expansion, localisation and broader handset compatibility.

Target price is $32.20 Current Price is $20.39 Difference: $11.81
If 360 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.30, suggesting upside of 88.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

In a flash update, Macquarie notes media reports suggest Chinese steel mills may have been prohibited from taking deliveries of BHP Group's Newman Fines (mid-grade iron ore product).

This extends earlier restrictions tied to the ongoing pricing dispute between BHP and the China Iron and Steel Association (CMRG).

The broker notes the potential ban could affect up to around 30% of BHP’s production, or roughly 90mtpa, although some volumes are sold into other Asian markets.

The move appears linked to negotiations over 2026 iron ore supply contracts and may represent an attempt to shift pricing power back toward Chinese steelmakers, commentary suggests.

While the dispute is expected to be resolved given the importance of the trade to both sides, enforced restrictions could pressure BHP’s realised prices. 

Neutral rating unchanged, noting the development may present a tactical opportunity for Fortescue ((FMG)) and Mineral Resources ((MIN)) if iron ore prices remain firm. Target remains at $52.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $50.98 Difference: $1.02
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.67, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

Collins Foods will make an acquisition in Bavaria, Germany, which Macquarie considers is a move in the right direction as that country is one of the company's three strategic growth pillars.

The additional eight stores is a positive but the more meaningful benefit would be an acceleration in organic store count growth, the broker adds.

Second half comparable sales to date in Australia are up 3.2%, considered evidence of solid execution in the soft consumer environment.

Operating leverage appears intact with the broker noting net profit guidance has been re-iterated for growth in the mid-to high teens. Neutral retained. Target edges down to $11.10 from $11.20.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $9.92 Difference: $1.18
If CKF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CKF as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans upgrades Collins Foods to Buy from Accumulate with a higher target price of $12.70 from $12.40 post the acquisition of an eight-restaurant Bavarian portfolio at under 6x restaurant-level earnings (EBITDA).

The portfolio is in prime, high-traffic city centre locations across Germany’s three most prosperous states, covering over 50% of the population. The analyst highlights average revenue per site at circa $6m versus around $4.5m across the existing German portfolio.

Australian same-store sales growth slipped to 3.2% in a trading update for 2H26 from 3.6% growth in 1H26, while Germany advanced to 4.1% from 2.3% growth.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance for mid-to-high teens growth in group underlying net profit after tax. The acquisition is viewed as "sensible", and the deal is flagged to be EPS accretive immediately.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $9.92 Difference: $2.78
If CKF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CKF as Hold (3) -

Collins Foods has reiterated guidance for FY26 for growth in the mid-to high teens and will purchase eight stores in Bavaria for -EUR3.1m.

This will give the company a platform for further organic growth in what is considered an underpenetrated market for the KFC brand, Ord Minnett notes.

The deal brings its German store footprint to 24 in three states. In the Netherlands, the company has struck a revised franchise agreemment with Yum! Brands, extending the deal to the end of 2029.

The broker assesses there is value in the stock but the business needs to exhibit a sustained period of performance in the German market, which is being touted as its next growth pillar.

Hold rating. Target is raised to $12.00 from $10.50.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.92 Difference: $2.08
If CKF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.34, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DBI as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Noting the decline in Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's share price of -14% since 2025 results, Morgans upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold with an unchanged target of $5.35 as there is no factor identifiable for the change in the fundamental value of the business.

At current share price levels, the analyst sees a total shareholder return of circa 21% including a forecast circa 6.2% dividend yield.

Earnings growth is underpinned by CPI-linked base changes and additional earnings on commissioned NECAP (New Expansion Capacity Auction Process) projects.

Dalrymple's 1 July 2026 terminal infrastructure charge reset will reflect March 2026 CPI and the average 10-year Australian Government bond yield heading into June, with the broker assuming 3.8% and 4.95%, respectively.

Morgans also expects the company to issue about $250m of five-year debt to partly refinance bank debt rolled last year, swapped into floating rate at around 170bps over BBSW.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.65 Difference: $0.7
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FCL as Buy (1) -

After a further review of Fineos Corp's FY25 results, Citi lowers its target to $2.95 from $3.25 due to lower peer multiples. The broker's FY26 earnings forecast rises by 5%.

Upside to the analyst's FY27 forecasts is possible should management meet its subscription revenue mix of 65%.

Citi's initial assessment of FY25 results is summarised below.

Fineos Corp’s FY25 result on February 25 featured stronger-than-expected revenue guidance despite currency headwinds, Citi recaps, with growth forecast to accelerate to around 8% in FY26.

The broker highlights stronger conversion from annual recurring revenue (ARR) into subscription revenue, supported by existing clients expanding usage across the platform.

Policy and Billing remains a key opportunity, the analysts add, as the full AdminSuite cloud release should support cross-selling to existing North American insurers.

The FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast is increased by 5% with potential upside flagged to FY27 estimates if subscription revenue reaches 65% of group revenue.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.57
If FCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTR as Buy (1) -

Liontown reported 1H FY26 revenue of $208m with negative earnings (EBITDA) of -$8m and a loss of -$89m, outperforming Bell Potter forecasts of -$25m and -$98m, respectively.

The broker notes the statutory loss of -$184m included a -$104m non-cash movement linked to the LG Energy Solution Convertible Note derivative.

A stronger balance sheet is noted after LGES note conversion, with cash of $390m and pro-forma net cash of around $32m.

The analysts expect FY26 guidance to be achieved as higher underground ore feed improves recoveries and production in the second half alongside stronger lithium prices.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and target of $2.42.

Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.8
If LTR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

In reaction to interim results, Citi lowers its target price for Liontown to $1.65 from $1.70 and upgrades to Neutral from Sell.

An implied SC6 price of US$1,600/t now aligns with peers, suggests the analyst, and valuation is now seen as more balanced following recent share price weakness.

Management is looking to expand the Kathleen Valley operation to 4mtpa, with the broker incorporating the increase into its base case given strong lithium pricing.

Growth capital expenditure of -$260m over 18 months for the expansion is estimated, including -$100m for a ball mill and flotation tanks and -$160m for underground development.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.03
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Liontown reported underlying net loss of -$89m and revenue of $208m, which beat Macquarie's estimates. As the spodumene market is recovering, brownfield expansion such as the company's Kathleen Valley 4mtpa study, are in focus.

Recoveries improved in the first half, averaging 61%. Management has also noted limited exposure to the Middle East conflict, with diesel just 4-5% of the cost base.

Neutral rating and $1.75 target maintained.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.13
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MFG as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Magellan Financial Group plans to merge with Barrenjoey in an all-scrip deal valuing the investment bank at about $1.61bn, with Magellan paying -$903m for the remaining shares it does not already own.

Morgans believes the transaction strategically strengthens Magellan by diversifying beyond its stalled investment management franchise and providing growth through Barrenjoey’s advisory, capital markets and private capital businesses.

However, the broker argues the pricing appears favourable to Barrenjoey, with Magellan effectively paying around 15x P/E, above global investment bank averages.

Earnings forecasts change materially, with FY26 EPS reduced by -27% but FY27 and FY28 increased by about 10% and 25% respectively following incorporation of the deal and stronger Barrenjoey earnings assumptions.

Morgans upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold with a target price of $12.43 from $9.80.

Target price is $12.43 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $2.64
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.05, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Within today's operational update by Northern Star Resources, management lowered FY26 production guidance to above 1.5moz from 1.6moz-1.7moz.

In an early assessment, Macquarie points to a weaker milling performance at KCGM and lower mining productivity at Jundee.

January-February sales of 220koz were well below forecasts by consensus and the broker for 284koz and 298koz, respectively, indicating a weak third quarter.

Operational reviews are underway at Jundee aimed at lowering costs and prioritising higher-margin production.

Ongoing milling issues at KCGM may persist through FY26, Macquarie suggests, until commissioning of the expanded processing circuit.

Target $32. Outperform.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $26.77 Difference: $5.23
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.18, suggesting upside of 48.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Premier Investments is due to report its 1H26 result on 20 March, with UBS expecting underlying Premier Retail earnings (EBIT) of about $120m, broadly in line with company guidance and consensus estimates.

The broker flags Premier Retail sales of $460.2m and net profit after tax of $99.3m for 1H26.

The Peter Alexander brand in Australia and New Zealand is expected to continue to perform strongly, supported by range expansion and store refurbishments. Start-up losses in the UK business are expected to continue.

Smiggle remains challenged in the near term due to cost of living pressures on young families and a more limited addressable market.

Buy rating is retained. Target price lowered to $18 from $19, due to weaker sector trading multiples despite an attractive valuation.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $12.34 Difference: $5.66
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.23, suggesting upside of 62.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Buy (1) -

Pantoro Gold posted a first half result that was slightly better than Ord Minnett expected.

Production guidance for the full year has been downgraded by -15%, driven by multiple factors such as rain at Scotia, equipment/personnel availability, as well as a transition to a new underground mining contractor.

Whilst these appear to be temporary, the broker takes a more conservative approach given the missteps to date.

Value on offer is still significant but until there is consistent delivery, the discount is unlikely to unwind and Ord  Minnett retains a Buy rating, reducing its target to $6.60 from $7.10.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $2.92
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 84.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Australian residential listing volumes were up 1% in February, the first month of growth since March 2025. Macquarie assesses a return to growth is positive and comparables will become easier throughout the second half of FY26.

Two factors are being watched: Sydney and  Melbourne's outperformance with regions lagging and secondly, consumer sentiment, which has a correlation with volumes.

The broker is constructive on REA Group's medium-term earnings expectations, mostly driven by Australian residential yields rather than volumes.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $200 target for REA Group.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $167.93 Difference: $32.07
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $224.84, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Upgrade to Hold from Trim (3) -

Rio Tinto is upgraded to Hold from Trim after a recent share price pullback narrowed the valuation gap, with Morgans lifting its target price slightly to $147 from $146.

The broker also raises its medium-term iron ore price assumption to US$85/t from US$80/t, providing a firmer earnings floor.

Rio Tinto is viewed as a high-quality diversified miner with strong exposure to iron ore, copper and aluminium, alongside lithium optionality.

Higher oil prices present risks the analyst explains mainly through weaker global growth and metal demand rather than operating costs. The stock is considered fairly valued at current levels.

Target price is $147.00 Current Price is $153.09 Difference: minus $6.09 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $152.33, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SSM as Buy (1) -

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $2.85 price target for Service Stream, highlighting Defence-related earnings upside as a key attraction following the release of the Australian Defence Force’s 2026 Estate Works Program tender forecast.

The broker notes the program outlines 198 minor capital projects worth around $700m, providing improved visibility for infrastructure contractors, with tenders heavily weighted to 2Q–3Q26.

UBS highlights Service Stream’s recent six-year $1.6bn Defence Property & Asset Services contract in South Australia and the Northern Territory as a platform to pursue additional work, with those regions representing about $190m, or 27%, of the new program.

The analysts estimate FY27 Defence revenue of $248m with a 5% EBITDA margin but see potential for revenue to reach $350m at an 8% margin if additional capital works are secured, implying around 10% EBIT upside to forecasts.

No changes were made to the broker’s financial forecasts.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.895
If SSM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TOR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Torque Metals has appointed the former Spartan Resources leadership team to drive growth at the 250koz Paris Gold Project, observes Morgans.

Incoming executives Simon Lawson, Craig Jones and David Coyne previously expanded the Never Never and Pepper deposits to 2.37moz gold before a $2.5bn takeover by Ramelius Resources ((RMS)), explains the broker.

There has been a $3m placement to the new management team at 27c per share, lifting pro-forma cash to $19m to support exploration.

The broker considers the experienced team and recent high-grade intercepts could support expansion of the 250koz resource. Speculative Buy rating retained and target increased to 90c from 80c.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.41
If TOR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VGL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie takes a more conservative position regarding forecasts for Vista International, noting VGLlive Direct sites fell -2.9% in 2025 and over the same period North American box office attendance fell -3%.

The broker now assumes a maintenance multiple of 2.4x to reflect a more consolidated customer base and difficult pricing backdrop.

FY26 EPS estimates are lowered by -19% and FY27 by -39%, with FY28 lowered by -55%,, on lower 100% platform site and maintenance multiple assumptions. Neutral. Target is reduced to NZ$1.82 from NZ$3.20.

Current Price is $1.55. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 101.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources