Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A11 as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Since the beginning of September lithium prices in China have remained largely stable, highlights Macquarie, while recent global M&A activity has provided validation for the long-term value of lithium projects.

The broker largely keeps target prices unchanged for ASX lithium stocks under coverage but downgrades several ratings following a rebound in lithium equity market sentiment and rising share prices.

For Atlantic Lithium, Macquarie's rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. The 30c target price is unchanged.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Today's 1Q trading update by ARB Corp was softer-than-expected by Citi. Consensus is expecting 9% profit growth for H1, but management stated profit will be "modestly down" for Q1, highlights the broker in an initial assessment.

The Australian Aftermarket division remains resilient, so weakness appears to be coming from the OEM division, according to the analyst, with growth falling by -2% in Q1 following strong double-digit growth in the 2H of FY24. 

The outlook for aftermarket and export is positive, commented management at the AGM. No formal guidance was issued.

Target $48. Buy.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $43.27 Difference: $4.73
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.80, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

After attending the Bapcor AGM, the analyst at Citi came away feeling the wholesale weakness might be easier to
resolve than first thought when penning initial thoughts yesterday (see summary below).

Sales for the last eight weeks may not have been down -3.7% as first estimated due to difficult comparatives. Issues seem to reside in Retail, due to execution, overall market challenges and Wholesale competition, explains the broker.

In an initial look at today's trading update by Bapcor at its AGM, Citi assesses consensus earnings downgrade potential.

A 0.7% increase in total sales for Q1 (Consensus 1H forecast was 2%) implies a slowdown to -3.7% in the last eight weeks from 7.7% in the first five weeks of the period, explains the broker.

Management notes the retail performance, which the analyst notes accounted for 18% of FY24 earnings (EBITDA) is “more challenged”.

Target $5.04. Neutral.

Target price is $5.04 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as No Rating (-1) -

Morgan Stanley observes the trading update from Bapcor's AGM with total revenue to Sept 30 rising 0.7% year-on-year versus a lift of 7.7% for the first five weeks of FY25. Consensus estimates stand at growth of 2% for 1H25.

Retail remains a challenge while trade and specialist networks are trading well, the broker highlights. Cost savings of -$20m-$30m are in the pipeline for FY25, most in 2H25.

Morgan Stanley is currently under research restriction for Bapcor and no target or rating are supplied. Industry view is In-Line.

Current Price is $5.08. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes 1Q25 sales growth for Bapcor as a meagre 0.7% as reported at the company's AGM update, compared to 7.7% growth in sales for the first five weeks of FY25.

The analyst notes retail continues to struggle with trade and specialist performing well.

Earnings will be driven by expected cost savings of -$20m-$30m in FY25, including a headcount reduction and warehouse consolidation, with a weighting to 2H25. This is in line with management's previous guidance.

Adjusting for the more sluggish sales growth, Ord Minnett reduces earnings forecasts by -2.5% for FY25 and FY26.

Hold rating unchanged. Target price declines to $5.30 from $5.40.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $0.22
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes the latest ABS data show a decline in registered births of -5% over 2023 which is the lowest recorded since 2006 and an increase in the rate of decline from -3% in 2022.

The broker believes Baby Bunting's main demographic is under financial pressure due to cost-of-living increases which is viewed as a longer-term factor the company will need to contend with strategically.

An increase in soft toys is noted as one example of such a response as market share stands at 3% against 23% for hard goods.

Despite some good signs of a turnaround, Citi remains Neutral rated with an unchanged $1.98 target price.

Target price is $1.98 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.05
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBT as Add (1) -

Morgans believes BlueBet Holdings is in a better position post the merger with betr and has resumed full coverage of the stock with an Add rating and a target price of 33c.

In Australia, the company is aiming for a 10% market share with savings of -$14m forecast by the analyst post exiting the US market.

Customers are forecast to grow to 194k from 168k between FY25 to FY27 with turnover of $1.54bn with net wagering revenue of $147m.

Add rated with 33c target price.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.1
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Today's 1Q production report by BHP Group came in broadly as Citi (at an initial glance) was expecting with management also leaving FY25 production and cost guidance unchanged.

Compared to the prior quarter, realised pricing for copper, iron ore, and metallurgical coal fell by -7%, -12% and -12%, respectively.

Operations at the Nickel West continued through the quarter and will be suspended from October, noted management.

Costs at Nickel West will emain elevated during the transition to suspension in 1H of FY25, explained management. Around -US$300m per year will be invested beginning in January 2025 to preserve optionality for a potential restart.

Buy. Target $46.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $43.54 Difference: $2.46
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.40, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners maintains its Buy, High Risk rating and $7.40 target for Bannerman Energy following the September quarter activities report.

As the uranium market continues to strengthen, management is maintaining maximum flexibility in its offtake and financing options as the Etango Uranium Project continues to progress towards a final investment decision, explains the broker.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $4.17
If BMN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie keeps its Underperform rating for Bank of Queensland after an "ok" 2H result, noting "ambitious" FY25 cost guidance requiring a material step-up in productivity.

For the 2H, weak balance sheet growth was offset by better margins and much lower impairments, notes the analyst.

The broker highlights the difficulty for management in investing for the future while also trying to reduce expenses and improve profitability. 

The target rises to $5.50 from $5.00 after the broker implements EPS upgrades and raises the market multiple.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting downside of -20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Underweight (5) -

At first glance the Bank of Queensland 2H24 results were better than Morgan Stanley expected. Cash profit came in 9% above consensus from growth in revenue, 1% better than anticipated, and lower loan losses, which point to a better second half trend.

The broker highlights an improvement in margins of 2bps to 1.57%, better than expected. Management also offered a positive FY25 outlook with flat expense growth and lower spending on investments.

Target price rises to $6.10 from $5.70 on EPS forecast upgrades of 11% in FY25 and 6% in FY26.

Morgan Stanley maintains its Underweight rating as Bank of Queensland is the least preferred smaller bank. Sector view is In-Line. 

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.68 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting downside of -20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Challenger's 1Q result was a "little soft", suggests Citi, with -28% lower fixed term annuity sales the most disappointing feature.

The analyst suggests a contraction in the Life book appears not to be structural in nature and has resulted from the front ending of maturities.

Causing investor concern and an overhang for the stock price, according to the analyst, is the potentially imminent sale of Apollo’s 10% remaining stake in Challenger post the December 3 escrow period.

Buy. Target price falls to $7.80 from $8.30.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $1.29
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -

While headline 1Q flows for Challenger were "weak", Macquarie suggests this is due to one-off strength in the prior comparative period.

FY25 guidance for normalised net profit of between $440-$480m was reaffirmed.

By division, Retail annuity sales declined by -11.2% versus the previous corresponding period, while Institutional sales decreased
by -74% due to the Aware Super sale (in the previous corresponding period), explains the analyst.

Target falls to $7.10 from $7.20. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $0.59
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

Challenger reported 1Q25 negative flows which were below Morgan Stanley's expectations because of competition in term pricing and outflows from fixed income.

Annuity book growth of 1.1% fell below the 2% forecast from the analyst because of a decline in fixed term annuity sales of -36%.

Retail sales rose 26% year-on-year which was viewed positively. 

Morgan Stanley believes the company needs to move to longer duration Life Products with inclusion of capital light fund manager products to increase the return on equity.

The target price $7.20. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $0.69
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Add (1) -

Morgans considers Challenger reported a "soft" 1Q25 earnings report with total life sales declining -14% on the previous year.

Retail fixed term annuity sales fell -22% and lifetime sales rose 26 while Japanese sales lifted 75% and Index Plus sales advanced 55%, all compared to the previous corresponding period.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -1% in FY25 and -7% in FY26.

Target price declines to $8.20 from $8.60. No change to Add rating.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $1.69
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Since the beginning of September lithium prices in China have remained largely stable, highlights Macquarie, while recent global M&A activity has provided validation for the long-term value of lithium projects.

The broker largely keeps target prices unchanged for ASX lithium stocks under coverage but downgrades several ratings following a rebound in lithium equity market sentiment and rising share prices.

For Core Lithium, Macquarie's rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. The 9c target price is unchanged.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.09, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYL as Buy (1) -

Catalyst Metals reported 1Q25 gold production of 27.9koz which was above Bell Potter's forecast. The company achieved a higher-than-expected realised gold price with all-in-sustaining costs broadly meeting estimates.

Cash and bullion advanced to $58m from $27m in 4Q24. As the first unhedged quarter the company benefitted from higher spot gold prices.

Management retained FY25 guidance at 105koz to 120koz at $2300oz to $2500oz.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $4.30 from $3.90 due to the rise in the gold price.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $1.24
If CYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Buy (1) -

Evolution Mining remains Citi's preferred ASX gold exposure following September quarter results and reiteration of FY25 group production guidance.

The broker notes exploration results were a highlight and also points out Evolution is annualising well ahead of FY24’s $367m cash flow. 

Target $5.10. Buy.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: $0.09
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Evolution Mining's 1Q production of 193.6koz beat by 3% forecasts by Macquarie and consensus while costs (AISC) were in line with consensus.

This 1Q production accounted for 26% of the mid-point of FY25 guidance which has been maintained.

The broker's target rises to $4.60 from $4.50 and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform following recent share price strength.

The analyst highlights the company's net debt position is around $1.4bn (includes leases), down from $1.5bn at end of the prior quarter.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Evolution Mining reported 1Q25 gold production above forecasts and consensus estimates by 4% and 3%, respectively, due to a robust performance from Red Lake and Mt Rawdon.

Higher mill grades assisted Red Lake production while higher tonnes milled benefitted Mt Rawdon. Stockpiles should be depleted at Mt Rawdon by the end of FY25, the broker highlights.

All-in-sustaining-costs were in line with expectations.

The stock remains Equal-weight with a $4.25 target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses Evolution Mining reported 1Q25 results which were in line with expectations and consensus estimates. The analyst highlights this quarter achieved 26% of full year production guidance.

The broker observes Red Lake generated good cash flows and better performance from higher grades, which rose 5.6% on the previous quarter.

Net debt of $212m was lower than anticipated as higher capex was offset by dividend payment timing and stamp duty/transaction costs.

The analyst lifts FY25 earnings forecasts by 5% and the target price declines -2% to $4.60.

Hold rating unchanged.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Since the beginning of September lithium prices in China have remained largely stable, highlights Macquarie, while recent global M&A activity has provided validation for the long-term value of lithium projects.

The broker largely keeps target prices unchanged for ASX lithium stocks under coverage but downgrades several ratings following a rebound in lithium equity market sentiment and rising share prices.

For Global Lithium Resources, Macquarie's rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. The 21c target price is unchanged.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 415.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GLN as Neutral (3) -

Since the beginning of September lithium prices in China have remained largely stable, highlights Macquarie, while recent global M&A activity has provided validation for the long-term value of lithium projects.

The broker largely keeps target prices unchanged for ASX lithium stocks under coverage but downgrades several ratings following a rebound in lithium equity market sentiment and rising share prices.

For Galan Lithium, Macquarie keeps a Neutral rating and raises the target to 14c from 12c after applying a 15% premium to valuation in recognition of potential regional consolidation around the Hombre Muerto West project.

Consolidation prospects have risen since Rio Tinto's ((RIO)) potential acquisition of Arcadium Lithium (LTM)), explains the analyst.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.005
If GLN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Since the beginning of September lithium prices in China have remained largely stable, highlights Macquarie, while recent global M&A activity has provided validation for the long-term value of lithium projects.

The broker largely keeps target prices unchanged for ASX lithium stocks under coverage but downgrades several ratings following a rebound in lithium equity market sentiment and rising share prices.

For Liontown Resources, Macquarie's rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. The 70c target price is unchanged.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: minus $0.125 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Peninsula Energy's Lance Uranium Project remains on track for a production restart in December, notes Shaw and Partners, following management's update on plant construction and wellfield development activities.

Management noted all customers under existing contracts have agreed to delivery schedules to align with the current forecast production.

Buy, High Risk and 26c target retained.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.16
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Since the beginning of September lithium prices in China have remained largely stable, highlights Macquarie, while recent global M&A activity has provided validation for the long-term value of lithium projects.

The broker largely keeps target prices unchanged for ASX lithium stocks under coverage but downgrades several ratings following a rebound in lithium equity market sentiment and rising share prices.

For Piedmont Lithium, Macquarie's rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. The 11c target price is unchanged.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: minus $0.095 (current price is over target).
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

 Ord Minnett likes 1Q25 results from Qoria including growth in revenue of 20% with costs remaining in check.

Key metrics such as free cash flow and annual recurring revenue were mixed but generally positive.

The analyst expects another robust 2Q25 performance with positive free cash flow estimated at $0.8m with medium term revenue expansion rate of around 20% including opportunities across all major business sectors.

Buy rating retained with an upgraded target price of 51c from 47c.

Ord Minnett highlights it acted as co-manager in the company's $30m placement in September.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.06
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates QOR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes the pipeline and outlook for FY25 remains positive for Qoria after reviewing in-line Q1 numbers.

Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew to $120m, and, in a positive milestone, free cash flow (FCF) positivity ($7.9m) was achieved, highlights the broker.

Entering Q2 the pipeline is strong and the analysts expect H2 will be supported by ongoing cross-sell momentum and new partnerships.

The Buy rating, High risk and 52c target are retained.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.07
If QOR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Following Rio Tinto's 3Q operational result, management maintained FY24 guidance across Pilbara iron ore, mined copper and aluminium.

Production for copper and aluminium missed the broker's expectations while Pilbara iron ore was in line.

Group copper production missed the consensus estimate on weaker Kennecott production driven by geotechnical faults at Bingham Canyon Mine in Utah, explains the analyst, where production interruptions are expected to persist until 2027

The broker prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) over Rio Tinto. The Rio Tinto rating is downgraded to Neutral from Underperform. The target falls to $119 from $120.

Target price is $119.00 Current Price is $120.78 Difference: minus $1.78 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $126.83, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Rio Tinto reported 3Q24 iron ore shipments which met Morgan Stanley's expectations of 3.6mt of production, a decline of around -19.9% due to wildfires. Guidance was downgraded to 9.1mt-9.6mt from 9.8mt-11.5mt.

Copper production was in line with the broker's estimate but -3% below consensus with Kenecott expected to experience challenges in 2025/2026 from high wall movement, the analyst notes.

Alumina production met expectations as did bauxite production and shipments. Morgan Stanley believes the company is in good stead to achieve 2024 guidance.

Overweight rating is maintained. The target is $135. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $120.78 Difference: $14.22
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.83, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Add (1) -

Morgans observes Rio Tinto's 3Q24 results were generally weaker than expected although Pilbara, Escondida and Oyu Tolgoi production were in line with expectations.

Output at Kennecott impacted on copper production due to a wall movement, while Escondida rose 15% and Oyu Togoi production lifted 19% on the year.

Bauxite was robust while Iron Ore Company of Canada was impacted by wildfires.

Morgans maintains an Add rating with a revised target price of $127, down from $128.

Target price is $127.00 Current Price is $120.78 Difference: $6.22
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.83, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes Rio Tinto reported "mixed" results for 3Q24 with Pilbara iron ore shipments in line with expectations, but wildfires impacted on Iron Ore Company of Canada which came in below forecasts.

Copper production was impacted by geological problems at Kennecott Utah copper, while smelter issues in NZ impacted on aluminium results.

The broker highlights Rio Tinto is seeking to review its blending strategy for iron ore due to the higher-grade ore from Simandou which is due to come on stream in 2026, in combination with the slow approval processes for new Pilbara mines.

The Buy rating and $133 target are maintained with no major EPS forecast changes.

Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $120.78 Difference: $12.22
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.83, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto's 3Q24 results revealed Pilbara ore shipments in line with UBS's expectations, although costs came in at the upper end.

Alumina was in line, bauxite more robust and copper weaker due to problems at the Kennecott wall. Although, the broker explains this was somewhat offset by higher grades from Escondida and a ramp up in Oyu Tolgoi. 

Management's guidance remained unchanged excluding Iron Ore Company of Canada. UBS lowers EPS forecasts by -4% for 2024 and -2% for 2025.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price lowered to $124 from $126.

Target price is $124.00 Current Price is $120.78 Difference: $3.22
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.83, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMP as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter highlights the proposed prospective ban on debit card surcharging from Jan 1 2026, including $2.1m in funding to the ACCC to assist with tackling the excessive charges.

The analyst highlights the government is not seeking to introduce a "blanket ban" on surcharging which exists in the UK, where both debit and credit cards are captured. This is viewed as important for SmartPay.

Bell Potter leaves earnings forecasts unchanged due to uncertainty on the bans but lowers the target price to 75c from $1.30.

No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.055
If SMP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -

In a first glance at today's 3Q operational result by Santos, Citi notes production was in line with the broker's forecast, but sales volumes were a miss (only due to timing of PNG LNG cargoes).

Revenue of US$1,269m was in line with the broker but a -4% miss against the consensus forecast on lower sales.

For FY24, management expects production in the top half of the range of 84-90mmboe, which compares to the prior consensus estimate for 86.8mmboe, highlight the analysts.

Neutral rating. Target $8.00.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: $1.04
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.21, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SXG as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Recent drilling at the Golden Dyke prospect (Sunday Creek Gold-Antimony project) has confirmed continuity of high-grade mineralisation as well as an extension 140m down dip, highlights Shaw and Partners.

At Rising Sun and Apollo, the quality of intercepts increased with depth, an outcome the broker expects to be replicated at Golden Dyke.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $3.26 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $3.26 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SXG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

At Transurban Group's AGM on October 22, Macquarie expects a reiteration of the dividend outlook.

Separately, the broker gleans from registration data network growth and ultimately congestion growth is moderate.

Elsewhere, the impact of road works is likely to remain a pain point, especially the M7, points out the analyst.

Neutral rating. The target is $13.00.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $13.31 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TRS as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley takes a first look at Reject Shop's AGM update. Management pointed to improved performance for sales and gross margins in the first 15-weeks of FY25 against the previous corresponding period with no definitive financials.

The analyst notes consumables and general merchandise improved with store targets "unchanged". Typically the company has a skew to 2Q earnings with the benefit of the Christmas season.

On balance the update was in line with expectations and the August guidance outlook, Morgan Stanley explains.

Equal-weight. Target price $3.40. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.22 Difference: $0.18
If TRS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Following today's 1Q update by Treasury Wine Estates, Citi's initial thoughts are management's reiteration of FY25 earnings (EBITS) guidance will be positively received by the market.

Management expects the Americas Luxury performance will accelerate from the 2Q and the performance in China remains in line with the broker's expectations.

Also, the portfolio (ex Penfolds and ex Americas Luxury) is seeing net sales revenue (NSR) in line with the previous corresponding period, which is better than suggested by recent Nielsen data, note the analysts.

Neutral rating. Target $12.97.

Target price is $12.97 Current Price is $11.69 Difference: $1.28
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy's 3Q revenue matched Macquarie's forecast after "solid" production at Sangomar and WA LNG offset weaker LNG price realisations.

Management's approach to retain a higher level of spot exposure is working after Pluto and the North West Shelf performed strongly, explains the broker, but the broker lowers its contract assumptions after the disappointing LNG realisations.

The $27 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $24.93 Difference: $2.07
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.80, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Equal-weight (3) -

Woodside Energy reported 3Q24 update with better-than-expected production, up 20% on the quarter and 11% against the previous corresponding period. Sangomar achieved 100kbbl per day production, Morgan Stanley highlights.

Management shrank 2024 production guidance to 189-195mmboe and revenues for the quarter came in at a lift of 21% to US$3.678bn. 

Hub sales of LNG are now being targeted of 33%-37% growth. Capex came in at -US$1.1bn for the quarter or some 77% of the midpoint guidance, the broker notes.

Target price $29. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $24.93 Difference: $4.07
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.80, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Add (1) -

Woodside Energy reported better than consensus production and sales revenue for 3Q24, Morgans highlights.

Higher Sangomar production with increased plant capacity at Pluto and Northwest Shelf boosted total production. Average realised price was 5% higher than on the previous quarter and in line with the broker's forecast.

Management narrowed production guidance and lowered capex guidance, while raising gas hub pricing exposure the broker explains. 

No change to $33 target price and Add rating. No major changes to EPS forecasts.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $24.93 Difference: $8.07
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.80, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett explains a surprise "tightening" of Woodside Energy's 2024 production guidance was announced at 3Q24 results.

The company also announced a 20% increase in output and 21% rise in revenue which was above both consensus and the broker's expectations.

A faster-than-expected ramp up at Sangomar production underpinned the better results. The analyst notes all 24 wells are running at near or full capacity.

The broker lowers EPS forecast for 2024 slightly, by -1% with EPS estimate rising 7% in 2025. Hold rating remains. Target price lifts 50c to $26.50.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $24.93 Difference: $1.57
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.80, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy's 3Q24 result was a "solid" report, UBS assesses on the back of record production, some 5% above consensus forecasts.

The better performance allowed management to narrow 2024 production guidance with the company achieving 73% completion on the Scarborough gas project.

The analyst liked the "de-risking" of Sangomar with concerns over well performance alleviated.

UBS raises 2024 forecast EPS by 9% due to a better Sangomar production ramp up, with higher production rates at Pluto and Northwest Shelf.

Target prices increases to $28.30 from $28.10. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $28.30 Current Price is $24.93 Difference: $3.37
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.80, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WEB as Neutral (3) -

Upon further clarification around WEB Travel's 1H update, Macquarie further lowers its target to $4.48 from $5.12 and maintains a Neutral rating.

Yesterday's research by the broker (summarised below) resulted in the target falling to $5.12 from $7.63.

Macquarie slashes its target for WEB Travel by -32.9% to $5.12 after management downgraded revenue margin guidance to circa 6.5% from between 7-7.5% primarily due to sustained weakness in European margins.

The broker is anticipating ongoing margin pressure due to a volume mix shift to lower margin regions, investments by hotels into direct channels and increasing volume rebates. The rise of exclusive contracts is also considered a headwind.

Further, the analyst suggests guidance for flat FY25 underlying opex is not sustainable in the longer-term.

Target price is $4.48 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $0.02
If WEB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 46.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Buy (1) -

UBS previews 1H25 earnings report for Xero noting industry feedback underpins growth in ARPU for the company.

The analyst lifts forecast five-year APRU compound growth rates to 8% from 7% aided by robust price rises in July/Sept across A&NZ, UK and USA, as well as benefits from plan upgrades.

Further increases to the 8% forecast ARPU growth rate is also possible as the price rises have been "absorbed" while industry checks reveal Xero customers come with the lowest SME churn intentions compared to competitors Intuit and Sage.

Subs growth is estimated to grow at a 9% compound average growth rate to 6.3m by FY29 with most from A&NZ, with the UK becoming more substantial in FY27.

Target price lifts 12% to $175 due to a higher sales multiple on the valuation. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $147.59 Difference: $27.41
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $164.60, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources