Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers the announcement from Resolution Copper is incrementally positive for BHP Group, given it is one of the largest undeveloped copper projects globally.

Resolution Copper, which is 55% owned by Rio Tinto and 45% owned by BHP, has now completed the land exchange with the US Forest Service following the ruling denying efforts to block the transfer.

Around -US$500m in preliminary expenditure over two years to fund drilling, early underground development and infrastructure upgrades has been announced.

The broker acknowledges the project remains up to a decade away from production which limits the near-term value impact.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $49.73 Difference: $6.27
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.67, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CU6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Clarity Pharmaceuticals has presented key findings from the Co-PSMA study to the European Association of Urology Conference, with the full data set confirming the detection of early stage BCR, particularly in men with very low PSA levels consistent with low tumour burden.

Bell Potter believes the stage is now set for a read-out from the approval study for AMPLIFY. The Co-PSMA data, along with data from COBRA and anticipated findings from AMPLIFY will form the basis for submitting a new drug application to the US FDA.

The broker notes the company is well funded with cash in excess of $226m. Speculative Buy rating and $6.40 target.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $3
If CU6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GDG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley tweaks its estimates for Generation Development to incorporate the new operating structure.

The new divisional structure better reflects the expanded product offering following recent acquisitions, with the broker pointing out the updates primarily reflect reclassification rather than underlying shifts in operations.

The company now reports across a clearer divisional structure comprising Generation Life, Lonsec, Evidentia and Corporate. The medium-term earnings outlook is broadly unchanged.

Overweight. Target is reduced to $7.00 from $7.50. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: $3.13
If GDG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 75.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

The share price of ImpediMed has declined -56% over the last six months, Ord Minnett observes, amid weaker US SOZO sales and soft recurring revenue growth.

The broker envisages opportunities for a material re-rating of the share price with a reacceleration of US SOZO sales from the third quarter along with early execution in adjacent heart health and weight management.

The main risk is access to funding in the near term. Speculative Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.05 from $0.12.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.034
If IPD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 213% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.04, suggesting upside of 116.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

James Hardie Industries gains potential upside from a competitor's plant closure, with Citi highlighting Nichiha's (a fibre cement competitor) plant exit in Georgia and resulting market opportunity.

The broker estimates the withdrawal creates around $70m in displaced sales, with exposure to high-value US regions supporting above-average pricing.

It's felt the opportunity could contribute around $30m to James Hardie's earnings on a full-year basis.

Unchanged Buy rating and $42.60 target.

Target price is $42.60 Current Price is $28.03 Difference: $14.57
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.58, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed modelling for James Hardie Industries to incorporate softer US and European economies. Forecasts for the March quarter operating earnings estimates (EBITDA) are downgraded to the top end of guidance at US$378m.

The broker now assumes a decline of around -5% in North American market demand, while some modest offset is anticipated from market share gains as Japanese rival Nichiha exits the American residential market, as well as from cost savings re the Azek artificial decking acquisition.

Estimates for European EBITDA are largely steady versus the solid growth previously forecast. Hold rating, and the $32.50 target is reduced from $35.00.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $28.03 Difference: $4.47
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.58, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NHC as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

New Hope posted first half underlying earnings of $215m and statutory net profit of $54m, which were below Bell Potter's estimates.  A $0.10 fully franked interim dividend was declared.

The broker notes conflict in the Middle East has raised the alarm over energy security and driven higher prices across the energy commodity complex. The spot thermal coal price is US$132/t, up 23% compared with the December quarter average.

The broker upgrades to Hold from Sell, noting the company's low-cost operations will continue to underpin margins through the coal price cycle. Target is raised to $4.50 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.96 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie raises its target for New Hope to $4.80 from $4.40 and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. The market backdrop has improved due to increased demand for seaborne thermal coal, substituting natural gas on Qatar's LNG outage, the analyst explains.

Interim results (July year end)  delivered earnings (EBITDA) in line with the broker's forecast, while profit missed due to higher depreciation. A 10c dividend exceeded the consensus expectation by circa 70%.

The broker highlights improved exposure to thermal coal prices at spot, with earnings and free cash flow (FCF) forecast to rise sharply into FY27 if current pricing persists.

No material upgrades to longer-term forecasts have been applied, though near-term earnings benefit from stronger coal pricing and operational recovery catalysts, the analyst explains.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.96 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHC as Hold (3) -

New Hope delivered a first half result that missed expectations with underlying net profit of $54m materially below Morgans' estimate. The fully franked $0.10 dividend was ahead of forecasts.

The materially weaker first half result is considered a function of significantly lower coal prices and higher depreciation expenses.

The broker asserts the business is still well-positioned to deliver low-cost, high-margin cash flow and can capitalise on a rebound in coal prices, which will drive stronger cash flow and shareholder returns.

Hold rating and $5 target maintained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.96 Difference: $0.04
If NHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica provided a trading update that was slightly stronger than Morgans had anticipated. The company has also settled its litigation with CF Industries while the acquisition of JV equity from US explosives partner Nelson Brothers has strengthened its US operations.

Morgans reduces FY26 EBIT estimates by -1.4% because of a higher Australian dollar and lower earnings from Indonesia, while increasing it in the subsequent years by around 1% because of said acquisition.

The broker considers the stock has been oversold, trading on a FY27 PE of only 14.1x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.7x. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $25.35 from $28.00.

Target price is $25.35 Current Price is $19.91 Difference: $5.44
If ORI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.61, suggesting upside of 32.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PBH as Buy (1) -

PointsBet Holdings posted a first half result that marked its first reporting period under the controlling stake (66.4%) of Japan's MIXI Inc.

Ord Minnett notes the revenue increase of 4% was underpinned by a "standout performance" in Canada.

In Australia, revenue dropped -1% amid the racing turnover being "actively suppressed" as the company continues to strengthen compliance and self-exclusion standards.

Buy. Target is $1.05.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.15
If PBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

Premier Investments (July year end) will report its 1H26 result on March 20, with underlying retail earnings (EBIT) guidance of around $120m, in line with Citi's forecast at $122m and consensus at $120m.

The sales mix between Peter Alexander and Smiggle is seen as a key focus, given recent softness in the Smiggle brand.

The analyst will be monitoring consumer demand trends for 2026 year-to-date following a strong December quarter amid higher interest rates and elevated fuel costs.

No change to Neutral rating and $16.70 target.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $12.27 Difference: $4.43
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.23, suggesting upside of 58.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PNR as Buy (1) -

A more detailed initiation report by UBS on Pantoro Gold highlights progressing development at its Norseman project. First ore is expected on schedule from the Mainfield underground mine.

The broker forecasts production to reach 204koz by FY29, well above consensus, driven primarily by higher grades alongside modest mill expansion.

A $7.70 target is set. Buy rating.

A summary of yesterday's research by UBS follows.

UBS has launched coverage on five more ASX listed gold names, taking its team gold coverage to 14 Australian stocks.

The broker's investment thesis sees strong volume growth and gold prices remaining elevated, providing a "healthy pathway" to higher earnings and cash flow for the sector.

The broker's updated order of preference places Pantoro Gold on top, followed by Westgold Resources, then Minerals 260, Catalyst Metals, and Ora Banda Mining.

UBS' Precious Metals strategists are forecasting an average gold price of US$5,200/oz for 2026 before the rally is expected to fade.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $3.68
If PNR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.67, suggesting upside of 71.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PRU as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Perseus Mining has sold its Meyas Sand gold project in Sudan to China's Matrix Resources for what Ord Minnett asserts is a "strong" price of US$260m.

This is more than double the value previously ascribed to the asset given the difficulties in a country that is enduring a continuing civil war.

Ord Minnett raises FY26 estimates for EPS by 14.8% to incorporate the net sale proceeds, while trimming FY27 and FY28 by -2.2% and -2.5%, respectively.

The broker considers the company one of the best options to gain exposure to the African gold industry and the divestment boosts the quality of its portfolio.

Target is raised to $6.80 from $6.50 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: $1.58
If PRU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers the announcement from Resolution Copper is incrementally positive for Rio Tinto's long-term copper growth as it improves visibility on one of the company's largest undeveloped copper assets.

Resolution Copper (55% owned by Rio Tinto, 45% by BHP Group) has now completed the land exchange with the US Forest Service following the ruling denying efforts to block the transfer.

Resolution Copper has announced -US$500m in preliminary expenditure over two years to fund drilling, early underground development and infrastructure upgrades.

The broker acknowledges the project remains up to a decade away from production which limits the near-term value impact.

Target price is $146.00 Current Price is $155.18 Difference: minus $9.18 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $153.33, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Post Serko's Investor Day, Citi has reduced FY27 forecasts on the back of Middle East uncertainty, but still maintains the outlook continues to look promising, including the development of Serko.ai.

Serko.ai is the company's multi-agent corporate travel platform featuring a new conversational UX that enables end to end booking and trip management.

Lowered forecasts have an impact on valuation and thus the price target pulls back to $2.85 (-17%). Buy rating retained.

Citi sees wins in the defined corporate segment (likely in 1H27 result) as the next key catalyst.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $1.23
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.92, suggesting upside of 159.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCG as Outperform (1) -

Turaco Gold has released an updated mineral resource estimate for Afema with 590koz of resource growth since the last update in Oct-25, Macquarie notes, adding total Afema resources now stand at 115.3Mt at 1.3g/t for 4.65Moz.

Contained ounces have now grown by 13% since five months ago, commentary highlights, explaining the uplift in resources at Afema will feed into the next upcoming catalyst, the PFS, which will be completed in 2Q2026.

Outperform. Target $1.10.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.455
If TCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights supportive macro indicators for Xero with accelerating business formation in Australia and the US alongside improving insolvency trends in A&NZ.

These trends are typically lagging indicators for subscriber growth and churn, points out the broker,. Current data are viewed as broadly positive for demand.

The analysts see upside to margins, supported by slowing hiring activity and potential cost efficiencies, including benefits from AI adoption and favourable currency.

Buy rating. Target of $144.80.

Target price is $144.80 Current Price is $77.62 Difference: $67.18
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $178.10, suggesting upside of 124.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources