Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Alkane Resources has reported third quarter gold production of 10,900 ounces and sales of 10,300 ounces, missing Bell Potter's expectations of 14,900 and 14,700 ounces respectively.

The production miss was explained by an unfavourable ore type reducing gold recovery to 67.6%. The broker anticipates stronger production will emerge from Roswell and Tomingley moving forward. 

Site operating costs totalled $1,953 per ounce, and all-in sustaining costs $2,454 per ounce. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.25 from $1.00.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.595
If ALK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALK as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Alkane Resources produced a soft quarterly result, Ord Minnett notes, owing mainly to lower recoveries at Tomingley. This combined with a higher capex figure to materially miss the broker's cash assumption.

Ord Minnett sees some risk to the FY24 guidance target but more importantly sees risk to market expectations for FY25 given the outdated production ramp-up and capex profile for the Tomingley extension project.

Given minimal forecast total shareholder return the broker downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. Target falls to 65c from 75c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If ALK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

ANZ Bank's 1H results are due on May 7 and Morgans forecasts cash earnings of $3.73bn a 4% increase compared to H2 FY23, and a -14% decline in DPS to 81cps.

The target falls to $25.95 from $26.23 and the Hold rating is unchanged. The broker's main concern is management's desire to pursue acquisitions which may be destructive for shareholder value and/or raise the risk profile of the business.

Target price is $25.95 Current Price is $28.54 Difference: minus $2.59 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.98, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATG as Hold (3) -

Following a 3Q trading update for Articore Group, Morgans observes revenue growth remains elusive, but praises management's revised focus on profitability versus marketplace revenue growth.

The broker highlights the gross profit after paid acquisition (GPAPA) margin for the quarter improved when compared to both the prior quarter and the previous corresponding period.

The GPAPA and the GPAPA margin rose by 6% and 450bps, respectively, on the previous corresponding period, while marketplace revenue fell by -12%.

The target falls to 68c from 70c and the Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.21
If ATG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBT as Buy (1) -

BlueBet Holdings' March Q performance was highlighted by positive net cashflows of $700k over the period, Ord Minnett notes. The strong cash performance was driven in part by the Australian segment’s net win which had previously been announced earlier.

The merger with betr is due to conclude July 1, and the broker expects this to drive a significant uptick in financial performance for the group from FY25.

Buy and 38c target retained.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.14
If BBT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Outperform (1) -

Beach Energy's third quarter production of 4.503m barrels of oil equivalent proved a miss to Macquarie's forecasts, but better than expected realised oil prices saw revenue beat the broker by 4%. 

Off the back of the quarter Macquarie has contracted the top end of its full year guidance, now anticipating 18.0-18.5m barrels of oil equivalent. 

The company intends to reduce headcount by -20% by the end of April, and the broker anticipates an update on the organisational restructure in coming weeks.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.00 from $1.95.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.4
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Accumulate (2) -

Beach Energy's third quarter production was lower than expected, notes Ord Minnett, at 4.5m barrels of oil equivalent.

Despite this, the broker sees no longer term implications to cause concern, noting higher production in the Otway and Taranaki basins were offset by the impact of wet weather in the Cooper basin.

The full year production guidance is lowered -4% following the period. 

The Accumulate rating and target price of $2.40 are retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.8
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Champion Iron's 1Q shipments missed forecasts by Citi and consensus by -3% and -5%, respectively. Rail availability is still an issue, notes Citi, and management is seeking improvement with the rail operator Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

The rail problem means iron ore concentrate stockpiled at Bloom Lake reached 2.7mwmt at the end of March, explains the broker.

Recoveries fell to to 80.2% from 81.4% in the prior quarter and cash costs were -5% worse.

The broker leaves FY24 earnings forecasts unchanged and lowers the FY25 earnings (EBITDA) estimate by -6% on lower assumed price realisations, while the FY26 forecast is increased by 2%.

The Buy rating and $8.60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $6.76 Difference: $1.84
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Neutral (3) -

Unplanned outages and supply-chain constraints were drivers behind a miss from Champion Iron in its fourth quarter, says Macquarie. Production was -7% below the broker's expectations, and sales -5% below.

As per the broker, all operational metrics declined in the period. Some of this was explained by increased plant downtime following the exploration of technical constraints in the third quarter. Macquarie expects operational conditions to improve in subsequent quarters. 

The broker was pleasantly surprised by the announcement that the company had closed out the year with a cash position of CAD$400m, and notes potential for capital returns with the end of year result. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $7.30 are retained.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.76 Difference: $0.54
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DVP as Buy (1) -

Develop Global has reported third quarter contracted revenue of $31.9m, in line with its previous quarter but a miss to Bell Potter's $35.0m forecast. Despite this, says the broker, the company remains on track to achieve full year revenue guidance of $130m. 

The broker notes underground development and production is set to ramp up at the Bellevue Gold Mine from the June quarter, and activity continues to ramp up at the Mt Marion project, expecting both should see Develop Global meet its full year revenue target.

The company is also progressing financing discussions for its Woodlawn project, having completed a feasibility study for a potential restart. 

The Buy rating and target price of $3.30 are retained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $1.03
If DVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp has reported 16% year-on-year growth in cash receipts over the March quarter, with free cash flow up EUR2.1m during the period. 

Macquarie points out cash receipts were impacted by on large client contract that remains under renegotiation. This is expected to be finalised in the in the coming quarter. 

Across its clients, Macquarie notes the company appears on track for both the Guardian launch later this year and to deliver AdminSuite support for New York Life's US voluntary benefits market entry. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $2.22 are retained.

Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.42
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FCL as Accumulate (2) -

Following three consecutive quarters of negative cash flow since June 2023, Fineos Corp has reported positive cash flow over the March quarter.

This, says Ord Minnett, is indicative of improving margins for the company and reflects Fineos Corp's ability to "scale earnings through enhanced product cross-selling and non-core cost reductions. 

The broker points out cash receipts improved in the quarter despite reduced product manufacturing, marketing and staff costs. 

The Accumulate rating and target price of $3.10 are retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $1.3
If FCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

A train derailment and adverse weather contributed to a -12% miss against Citi's forecast for hematite shipments in the March quarter, and realised prices were a modest miss.

While FY24 shipment guidance is unchanged, Fortescue is guiding to the lower end of the 192-197mt range.

Full year cost guidance is also unchanged

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target falls by -$1.00 to $23.50. Citi forecasts iron ore prices will move higher into peak seasonal China steel production in May.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $24.76 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.42, suggesting downside of -20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Fortescue Metals' March Q results were a miss as Macquarie expected, with the company needing to break records to hit its full-year production guidance. Costs remained in control, with capex guidance cut on favourable FX and capital resequencing.

Iron Bridge's flat quarter on quarter production is another concerning data point on when and if the project will deliver its production capacity nameplate, the broker notes.

While the implied hydrogen premium appears immune to negative Fortescue Energy news flow, potential lower free cash flow and
dividends may disappoint, Macquarie warns. FY25 guidance will be key.

Target falls to $13.50 from $14.00, Underperform retained.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $24.76 Difference: minus $11.26 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.42, suggesting downside of -20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Lighten (4) -

Rain and a train derailment meant Fortescue's March Q fell modestly short of Ord Minnett's expectation. Shipments were down -7% year on year and -11% quarter on quarter.

Shipment guidance is now towards the lower end of the range, partially offset by lower iron ore capex and energy opex.

Ord Minnett believes it's too early to get excited about green energy.

Lighten and $16.20 target retained.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $24.76 Difference: minus $8.56 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.42, suggesting downside of -20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KGN as Sell (5) -

Following Kogan.com's 3Q update, Citi notes several metrics are now pointing in the wrong direction, and strong subscription driven revenue growth established at the February result is but a memory.

The broker highlights negatives including slowing Kogan First subscription additions, lower subscriber revenue, while Kogan
marketplace and Mighty Ape look to be resuming their decline.

To reflect a lower earnings run-rate towards the end of Q3, the analysts lower FY24 and FY25 earnings (EBIT) forecasts by -16% and -22%, respectively.

The Sell rating is unchanged and the target falls to $4.80 from $5.50.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting upside of 47.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KGN as Accumulate (2) -

Grappling with consumer demand, Kogan.com's March Q gross sales missed Ord Minnett's forecast. Margins improved quarter on quarter and year on year, but without hoped for revenue growth, costs weighed.

The subsequent share price sell-off suggests the market is excessively focused on the short term, the broker suggests, believeing Kogan to be materially undervalued.

Ord Minnett expects retail sales to rebound in FY25, supported by wage growth, tax cuts and possible RBA easing, and expects online retail to outperform bricks & mortar.

Accumulate and $10.70 target retained.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $5.6
If KGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting upside of 47.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LYC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi downgrades its rating for Lynas Rare Earths to Sell from Neutral and lowers its target to $5.30 from $6.70 following March quarter operational results.

While there was a production beat against management guidance for NdPr, sales volumes fell by -41% quarter-on-quarter. The broker sees a bleaker pricing outlook for rare earths expects elevated unit costs.

The broker's NdPr price forecasts for FY25 and FY26 fall by -16% and -22%, respectively, and the long-term forecast is reduced to US$90/kg from US$100/kg.

China is expected to gain greater control over the rare earths market and use excess capacity to ensure prices are at moderate levels and deter ex-China growth, explains Citi.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Mineral Resources recommenced selling Wodgina spodumene concentrate during the third quarter, in response to weak lithium battery chemical prices says Bell Potter. 

The result was quarterly sales volumes above the broker's forecasts, but with variations at project level. As per Mineral Resources, spodumene concentrate pricing improved late in the quarter, spurring a 22,000 tonne shipment at US$1,300 per tonne.

Onslow Iron, says the company, remains on track for first exports in June. Bell Potter, however, adjusts its own forecasts to account for a one quarter delay in ramp-up.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $85.00 from $75.00.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $68.82 Difference: $16.18
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.57, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Third quarter operational results for Mineral Resources were "ok", according to Citi. While the Wodgina performance disappointed, Onslow is running on time and on budget, with mining volumes ahead of shipment guidance.

Given a focus by the market on the company's liquidity constraints to fund growth, the potential sale of a stake in an iron ore haulage road is a key catalyst for the share price, in the broker's opinion.

The Buy rating is maintained given the various options open to management and the company's diversified asset base. The target rises to $79 from $76.10

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $68.82 Difference: $10.18
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.57, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Hold (3) -

Mineral Resources performed in line with Morgans expectations across the majority of its assets in the 3Q, though slightly missed consensus expectations at Wodgina.

While management now agrees with the analysts that the bottom for lithium prices has been reached, Morgans feels the current lithium price strength is already factored in to the current share price.

Costs at Wodgina are now expected towards the upper end of prior guidance due to the delay of Train 3 (announced at 1H results)
as a result of lithium market conditions, explains the broker, and pre-stripping continuing until the end of FY24.

The company's iron ore division is tracking in line with guidance, notes the broker.

Management maintained FY24 production and cost guidance.

The $71 target is unchanged. The broker's Hold rating is also maintained after recent share price strength.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $68.82 Difference: $2.18
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.57, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

National Australia Bank reports 1H results on May 2 and Morgans is around 3% ahead of consensus in forecasting a largely flat 1H cash earnings result of $3.65bn. A flat dividend of 84cps is also expected.

The Hold rating is maintained given the broker is cautious on competitive intensity, cost growth and potential for a weaker economy to weigh on the bank's cyclically exposed business banking division. The target falls to $29.97 from $30.02.

Target price is $29.97 Current Price is $34.00 Difference: minus $4.03 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.01, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

Paladin Energy's restart of Langer Heinrich is now complete, Macquarie notes, with first production achieved on 30 March on schedule. Restart costs were within revised guidance and Paladin has now drawn on the US$150m debt facility.

The company has announced it will provide maiden guidance for Langer Heinrich in July for FY25 operational parameters.

Paladin is now focused on the ramp-up of Langer Heinrich, and is benefiting from uranium tailwinds, the broker notes. FY25 guidance is a key catalyst.

Outperform and $15 target retained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.72 Difference: $1.28
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.97, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy has announced commencement of operations at its Langer Heinrich project, having drummer the first yellow cake in late March. 

Shaw and Partners notes the company will now focus on ramping up production and generating first uranium sales by mid-year. The broker notes cash of US$50m and an available US$125m credit facility should leave the company well funded to first sales. 

The broker considers Paladin Energy a sector stand out on a risk-reward basis. 

The Buy rating and target price of $16.40 are retained.

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $13.72 Difference: $2.68
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.97, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

Citi suggests Perpetual may have been fortunate in the 3Q as strong markets and favourable currency movements drove a sizable lift in funds under management (FUM) for the Asset Management division, despite increased net outflows.

Corporate Trust’s funds under administration (FUA) remained flat during the quarter, while flows dried up for Wealth Management, notes the analyst. FY24 expense growth guidance was also increased.

Citi is hopeful of positive news when the strategic review completes on May 8, which will be necessary to avoid a share price fall.

Neutral retained. Target is increased to $25.95 from $25.70.

Target price is $25.95 Current Price is $23.83 Difference: $2.12
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.74, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie was left disappointed by Perpetual's net flows of -$5.2bn in the quarter, significantly outpacing the broker's expected -$1.1bn. Macquarie does note the result was offset by market movements of $11.9bn and foreign exchange gains of $6.8bn. 

The broker does anticipate improvement in flows over the next 3-6 months, expecting $3.5bn in Australian equities and US fixed income in that time period. 

The company has lifted its expenses guidance, largely on a weaker Australian dollar. Perpetual is now guiding to total expense growth of 32-34%.

Macquarie is on research restriction.

Current Price is $23.83. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.74, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRU as Neutral High Risk (3) -

Production and costs (AISC) in the 3Q for Perseus Mining modestly beat consensus forecasts. While FY24 guidance ranges were maintained, management expects costs at the lower end and production at the higher end, observes Citi.

The broker feels the acquisition of OreCorp ((ORR)) is proceeding smoothly with 95% of the company now held with the balance proceeding to compulsory acquisition.

The Neutral High Risk rating is maintained and the target rises to $2.30 from $1.85 after the broker updates forecasts for the March quarter and new gold price estimates.

Forecasts are also incorporated for the Nyanzaga gold development in Tanzania with FID expected by the end of 2024.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.09
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Perseus Mining reported "decent" March Q results, Macquarie suggests, with production 4% better than we expected and costs 13% better.

Second half guidance is well in hand, the broker notes, and heading towards the stronger end of the production/cost guidance ranges with management noting the potential for a beat.

The balance sheet remains strong as it moves to compulsorily acquire OreCorp ((ORR)). Outperform and $2.70 target retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.49
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RED as Buy (1) -

Red 5 released a largely unsurprising, mostly pre-released result, Ord Minnett notes. The merger with Silver Lake Resources is set to close in June.

The broker sees this as the next key catalyst for the stock as its MergeCo model illustrates a pathway to becoming the fifth largest
gold producer on the ASX.

Over time, Ord Minnett believes MergeCo will trade more in line with large cap peers and therefore sees an opportunity to gain exposure now before this discount unwinds further.

Target rises to 46c from 45c, Buy retained.
 

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.03
If RED meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -

ResMed's 3Q EPS of US213c was around 10% higher than consensus was expecting on a higher-than-expected gross margin and
revenue, explains Citi. Revenue also exceeded the consensus forecast by 2%.

The adjusted gross margin of 58.5% was 120bps above the 57.3% expected by consensus. This was an increase of 160bps quarter-on-quarter, and 250bps year-on-year, largely due to manufacturing efficiencies and a reduction in freight costs, explain the analysts.

Management continues to claim weight loss drugs will act as a tailwind for the business. In a later conference call with analysts, the company noted the gross margin will be negatively impacted (-30-50bps) from disruptions in the Red Sea.

Buy rating. Target $34.00.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $28.74 Difference: $5.26
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.38, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

ResMed's 3Q gross profit margin of 58.5% was a 160bps rise on the previous quarter, eclipsing forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus for rises of 90bps and 100bps, respectively, due to improvements in freight and manufacturing.

Due to strength in margins and a lower interest expense, explains the broker, diluted EPS rose by 27% to US$2.13 compared to forecast rises of 10% and 8% by consensus and the analyst, respectively.

The highlight, according to Morgan Stanley, was US device sales growth of 7.3% on the previous corresponding period, compared to estimates by consensus and the broker of 5% and 3%, respectively, indicating a limited negative impact from obesity drugs.

Management provided no FY24 guidance or outlook commentary.

Overweight rating. Target $31.80. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $31.80 Current Price is $28.74 Difference: $3.06
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.38, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Gold production for Regis Resources in the 3Q was a slight miss versus forecasts by Citi and consensus, while costs (AISC) missed by -15% and -12%, respectively, largely due to wet weather at Tropicana. 

Management maintained FY24 guidance, despite the -40% quarter-on-quarter production fall at Tropicana.

The delay in timing for McPhillamys may lead to a return of dividends or paydown of debt, notes the broker.

The Sell rating and target price of $1.30 are retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources' March Q production was slightly below Macquarie's estimate while costs were 21% higher, with heavy rain impacts cited. Despite the rain impacts, guidance is retained, albeit likely towards the lower end of production and top end of cost ranges.

The cash balance fell well short of Macquarie's forecast, due to higher costs. Focus should return to the existing business, for which the broker anticipates Regis will generate 70% of its market cap in free cash flow in the next five years.

Life extensions at Tropicana via underground resource growth will be the key catalyst. Outperform and $2.60 target retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.4
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

St Barbara produced 17.3koz of gold at Simberi in the March Q at a cost of $3,074/oz. Cost guidance has increased for Simberi from $2,750-3,050/oz to $3,200-3,400/oz, but sustaining capex has been decreased.

SBM continued to advance the Simberi Expansion Concept Study during the quarter with a delivery date of May expected.

With only 68% of the low end of the production guidance achieved, St Barbara needs a strong June quarter, Macquarie notes.

Target rises to 24c from 21c on marking to market equity investments. Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLR as Neutral (3) -

Silver Lake Resources had already released production and sales number but March Q costs were 15% better than Macquarie had forecast.

The strong performance of the Australian operations sees sales for the first three quarters at 85% of the sales guidance mid-point and 81% of the top end of guidance, positioning the miner well to beat FY24 guidance.

Completion of the merger with Red 5 ((RED)) (expected completion in June 2024) is now the key catalyst, Macquarie notes.

Neutral and $1.40 target retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If SLR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SLR as Buy (1) -

The March Q result was good from Silver Lake Resources, suggests Ord Minnett, but largely expected given the pre-announced
gold sales and cash position. Cash generation was particularly impressive and adds further to a strong balance sheet.

Post closure of the merger with Red 5, Ord Minnett would expect MergeCo to trade more in line with its larger cap peer group following a couple of good quarterlies from both asset bases where the broker sees less risk to delivery versus similar sized peers.

Buy and $2.30 target retained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.885
If SLR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SXE as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has initiated coverage on Southern Cross Electrical Engineering. The company has materially growth revenues in the last seven years to $465m in FY23, and targets revenue above $500m in FY24.

As per the broker, the company is exposed to the electrification and decarbonisation trends through multiple avenues, as well as to the data centre sector which is now showing exponential growth. In the last four years the company has announced fifteen data centre awards totalling $170m. 

The broker forecasts revenue of $515m in FY24 and $567m in FY25.

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.29
If SXE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TUA as Buy (1) -

In a sign of solid broadband take-up for the existing offering, suggests Citi, Tuas has launched its 10Gbps broadband offering earlier-than-expected.

The price point of around $30/mth is less than half relative to 10Gbps offerings from competitors, notes the broker.

The Buy rating and $4.50 target price are maintained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $0.58
If TUA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources had already reported March Q production and sales numbers, but the official report revealed costs were 2% better than Macquarie's forecast. 2024 production guidance retained, with 28% achieved in the March Q.

The closing cash balance was better than the broker expected, due to capex being below forecast.

Timing of Kiaka's development remains important for the outlook, Macquarie suggests, with the project to more than double gold output.

Outperform and $1.60 target retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.3
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Hold (3) -

Westpac's 1H result is due on May 6 and Morgans cash earnings forecast of $3.54bn is 5% ahead the consensus estimate. The broker is expecting a flat dividend, compared to the 2H of FY23 of 72cps. 

The Hold rating is maintained and the target rises to $23.05 from $22.97.

Target price is $23.05 Current Price is $26.19 Difference: minus $3.14 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.22, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Add (1) -

Woodside Energy's 1Q production missed forecasts by consensus and Morgans by -3%, while revenues were broadly in line with expectations.

The broker highlights a disconnect between the Woodside share price (down -1% since October) and the oil price (Brent up 2%), as well as the share price of smaller peer Santos ((STO)). It's felt Woodside's fundamentals have improved in this period.

The current multiple discount to Santos doesn't tally with Woodside's materially higher earnings power, stronger balance sheet and higher quality asset portfolio, according to Morgans.

The Add rating is maintained and the target eases to $36 from $36.20.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $28.57 Difference: $7.43
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.80, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources