Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Following yesterday's Amotiv AGM update, Citi raises its FY25-27 EPS forecasts by between 1-4% to reflect the buyback commencing on November 6. The $12.65 target and Buy rating are retained.

A summary of the broker's initial thoughts on the day of the AGM follows.

Citi observes Amotiv's AGM update was in line with expectations. The market is anticipated to take the update as "positive" as well as a surprise 5% shares buyback.

Management highlighted 1Q25 revenue growth of 3.5%, slightly below consensus estimates at 4%. There was nothing in the commentary to infer any possible EPS downgrades at this stage, the analyst suggests.

The broker notes Amotiv is pointing to "slightly stronger" EBITDA growth in 2H25, although there are risks around higher freight costs as per what Nick Scali ((NCK)) announced today.

Target price is $12.65 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $1.64
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.15, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBN as Hold (3) -

Morgans hosted Baby Bunting CEO and CFO at its annual Morgans Conference last week, noting the company re-affirmed FY25 guidance for net profits of $9.5m-$12.5m, like-for-like sales growth between 0%-3% and a 40% gross margin

Slightly softer than expected sales in 1Q25 from the first seven weeks of FY25 were attributed to an absence of promotions which lifted sales in the previous corresponding period.

New product additions in six out of seven categories are doing well. The broker believes new product innovation is a growth lever for the company. Management also identified 43 stores out of 71 in Australia to be part of the refurbishment program.

Hold rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $1.80 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If BBN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold's 1Q gold production missed Macquarie's forecast by -4% while sales exceeded forecasts by the broker and consensus by 5% and 10%, respectively.

Management expects improving ore movements as the year progresses due to the completion of key mine upgrades. FY25 production guidance is unchanged.

The broker's Outperform rating and $1.90 target price are maintained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.34
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGL as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett observes Bellevue Gold reported a better-than-expected 1Q25 result. Notably, the analyst liked the completion of problems with ventilation at the Bellevue Gold project mine which allows for increased production and mill volumes.

The broker lifts EPS estimates by 4% in FY25 and 2% in FY26.

Rating downgraded to Lighten from Hold due to the share price appreciation. Target price $1.35.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If BGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses the update by BHP Group on settlement negotiations for Samarco in Brazil is positive as the present value of the expected settlements largely align with the current balance sheet provision of around US$6.5bn.

The broker reminds investors the risk of litigation in other jurisdictions remains, though, because of duplication, management feels a settled Brazil case renders other global cases unnecessary.

Overweight. Target $46.85. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $46.85 Current Price is $42.64 Difference: $4.21
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.31, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett observes the updated Samarco compensation charges place the offer value at R170bn which equates to US$32bn or $48bn. This is an increase from R140bn in June and R127bn in April.

BHP Group stated the "settlement proposal is broadly aligned with the existing US$6.5bn provision", although the broker highlights the February update on the group's balance sheet was around -US$8bn less than the recent US$32bn amount.

No changes have been made to earnings forecast with the analyst acknowledging the payment amount is complicated by timelines of payments and the like.

Accumulate rating and $45 target unchanged.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $42.64 Difference: $2.36
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.31, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Buy (1) -

While October and November will have a greater impact in driving 1H25 results for Beacon Lighting, following 1Q results Citi suggests consensus may have to slightly reduce its expectation for 1H like-for-like sales growth of 1.5%.

In an initial take, the analyst deduces from a rather opaque update that 1Q25 sales momentum was positive for online and trade, implying retail like-for-like sales are still on the decline.

Positive catalysts for the stock price should be warmer weather (fan sales) and/or a reduction in interest rates, believes the broker.

Buy rating. Target $3.12.

Target price is $3.12 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.15
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes Beach Energy 1Q25 production, group sales and revenue all came in well above forecasts with a full contribution from Enterprise and a rise of 24% in Otway basin over the previous quarter.

Field declines at Western Flank continued while Cooper Basin JV volumes rose, the broker notes. Management retained FY25 guidance with a wide production range which offers Waitsia Stage 2 ramp-up scope for variances. Initial gas is expected in early 2025.

The analyst likes the downward trend in capex, retaining a positive position on Australia's east coast gas market. EPS forecasts are lifted by 17% in FY25 and 10% in FY26.

Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating, lifting the target price to $1.50 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.21
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie is expecting first time EBIT guidance by management at Fletcher Building at tomorrow's AGM with a mid-point of around NZ$430m.

Given recent changes in management, the broker is unsure how much weight the market will place on either guidance or commentary.

Underperform rating unchanged. Target edges up to NZ$2.39 from NZ$2.37.

Current Price is $2.89. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses expectations for a strong 1Q25 report were achieved by Generation Development with growth in assets under management of 10% in Lonsec, and record investment bond sales, up 40% on the quarter.

The broker notes the annuity book advanced by 28%, sequentially, to $42 in assets under management. The rebound in funds under management for Lonsec was particularly positive, post the average 4Q24 performance.

Morgans raises EPS estimates by 6% in FY25 and 10% in FY26. Hold rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $3.51.

Target price is $3.51 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.13
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GDG as Buy (1) -

Generation Development reported "excellent" 1Q25 results Ord Minnett states including growth in funds under management of 9% to 10% with bond funds rising 8.7% in the quarter, slightly above the broker's forecast.

Investment bond sales came in $181m above estimates with robust demand. Lonsec also performed well, while LifeIncome annuities experienced a rise of 28% in funds under management.

The broker is forecasting 35% compound average EPS growth over the next two year. EPS estimates are lifted between 2% to 6% for FY25 to FY27.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $3.90 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.52
If GDG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Buy (1) -

On first take, Iluka Resources' 3Q2024 update was "disappointing", Citi highlights, with mineral sands revenue well below the broker's forecast. The analyst observes sales of just 97kt, with zircon at 59kt, including lower grades.

December quarter zircon prices are expected to fall further to US$40-US$50/t, with this quarter's realised price down -7% on June quarter.

The company failed to offer an update on refinery funding and Citi highlights the Chinese zircon market remains "soft", Europe is "stable". Synthetic rutile sales are forecast to rise notably to around 200kt for 2024.

Buy rated with a $7.30 target price.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.20 Difference: $1.1
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.97, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JIN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

With shares trading on a PE multiple -32% below the historical average, Citi raises its target for Jumbo Interactive to $14.70 from $14.25 on increased market multiples and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The analysts see limited downside to 1H FY25 results next February even if jackpots stay subdued as consensus expectations were rebased lower post the FY24 result.

The broker also sees upside potential from Daily Winners should management be successful in converting current free users to
the $15/mth premium tier.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $12.69 Difference: $2.01
If JIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.77, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

The analysts at Citi will not be budging from their current Buy-rated thesis on Nick Scali despite the sudden gross margin deterioration across A&NZ revealed at yesterday's AGM.

The broker anticipates margins will revert to prior levels over the course of FY25. It's thought factory costs will decline due to general weakness in China and increasing scale from shifting UK volumes to the company’s existing factories.

Citi also notes any reduction in interest rates should provide a tailwind via housing churn.

The target falls to $15.93 from $16.53.

Target price is $15.93 Current Price is $14.50 Difference: $1.43
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.51, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Higher freight rates had a materially negative impact on the gross margin for Nick Scali in Q1, notes Macquarie, and Q2 will be particularly affected as written sales are delivered.

On the other hand, the analyst sees an acceleration of written sales in Q1 as a positive indicator into Q2, as well as the significant UK opportunity helping drive further medium-term sales growth.

Management confirmed store roll-out guidance for FY25.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price falls to $15.60 from $16.25.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $14.50 Difference: $1.1
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.51, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCK as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett observes Nick Scali revealed "materially higher unexpected freight rates" placing pressure on margins which results in a much softer 1H25 outlook than expected.

Post the trading update, the broker lowers EPS forecasts by -9% and -8% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Target price accordingly declines to $15 from $16.50,

The stock is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.50 Difference: $0.5
If NCK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.51, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

As NextDC expands its footprint in Asia, Citi anticipates higher land holding costs. Overall, the broker also expects slower-than-expected
billing ramp-up and lowers its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by between -2-7%.

From the available truncated research note it's not clear why the broker's target price rises by 4% to $20. Potentially, the higher target relates to the analyst's conviction NextDC is well positioned to benefit from increasing demand due to AI.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.65 Difference: $2.35
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Following commentary at last week's AGM, Citi raises its target for Orora to $2.80 from $2.55 in the expectation of higher can growth and lower debt/interest costs, partially offset by lower forecasts for Saverglass earnings.

The sale of Orora Packaging Solutions (OPS) is expected to complete in late-2024 and the size of the on-market buyback may be lower-than-expected by the broker, resulting in a lower net interest cost.

The Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.2
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Following a period of research restriction and the day after Orora's 1Q update, Macquarie resumes with an Outperform rating and $2.84 target, up from $2.45.

The broker feels the balance sheet has transitioned from a position of weakness to strength following the sale of Orora Packaging Solutions (OPS) for US$1.2bn. Given limited franking credits, Macquarie includes a $350m buyback in forecasts.

The analyst also believes the outlook for cans is positive supported by demand-driven capacity expansions.

Regarding Saverglass, Macquarie expects demand will improve in 2025.

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.24
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PFP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie doubles its 1H FY25 total Australian death volume growth forecast for Propel Funeral Partners to 4.0%.

The broker's new estimate follows data from Births, Deaths and Marriages showing deaths grew by 9.4% year-on-year in NSW, VIC and QLD.

The Outperform rating is retained. Target rises to $6.98 from $6.88 on the broker's minor forecast earnings changes and a valuation roll-forward.

Target price is $6.98 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: $1.28
If PFP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.52, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett stresses Pantoro is a notable "leveraged" single asset gold producer on the back of September results which were in line with expectations. 

The analyst anticipates more "momentum" in the stock.

Management suggested production will soften in December quarter to around 20koz with an increase in lower grade stockpiles. Free cash flow is expected to rise to around $18m on lower costs and higher realised prices.

Target price lifts to 15c from 12c on the back of the updated result. Speculative Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.025
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Buy (1) -

UBS raises its FY25 volume growth forecast for REA Group to 3% year-on-year from 2%. Beyond FY25, the analysts see flat volume growth, assuming interest rate cuts reduce incentives to sell, and structural barriers to transacting property return.

Previewing 1Q results, the broker forecasts revenue of $420m and earnings (EBITDA) of $239m.

The UBS target rises by 13% to $263 reflecting higher earnings forecasts and a higher assumed earnings multiple. Buy.

Target price is $263.00 Current Price is $227.72 Difference: $35.28
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $233.43, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32's 1Q operational report was broadly in line with Citi's forecasts. In a disappointing outcome, according to the broker, working capital increased by around US$350m.

Production numbers for manganese, copper and aluminium production were better-than-expected by the analysts, while silver and zinc (Cannington) missed forecasts.

The $3.90 target and Buy rating are maintained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.21
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes South32's 1Q production beats for aluminium and copper of 3% and 7%, respectively, were offset by misses for other commodities.

Management has left FY25 production guidance unchanged.

The broker's target falls to $4.05 from $4.15 after a -9% cut to the FY25 EPS forecast. The FY28-29 forecasts are also reduced by -3% and -6%, respectively, due to Sierra Gorda project delays. Outperform.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.36
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Equal-weight (3) -

Alumina production, which accounts for around 19% of South32's earnings (EBITDA), missed 1Q forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by -2% and -5%, respectively, due to maintenance at Worsley.

Mangenese production (circa 13% of earnings) beat the consensus forecast by 11% and the broker's estimate by 9%.

At Sierra Gorda (14% of FY23 EBITDA) production beat forecasts by the analysts and consensus by 8.7% and 1%, respectively, as a result of higher planned copper grades.

Equal-weight rating. Target $3.20. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes South32 announced "mixed" 1Q25 report. Canning zinc and Worley alumina performed below expectation, while Sierra Gorda in Chile benefitted from higher grades. Manganese and aluminium operations also performed above expectations.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance. 

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -3% in FY25 and -1% in FY26. Buy rating unchanged and target price $4.25.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.56
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Following Stockland's 1Q operational update, Citi highlights ongoing potential for growth in the business. It's noted Land lease is one of the key businesses driving strong growth in medium-term earnings.

The analysts observe residential sales rose by 13% year-on-year, industrial rental spreads (36%) were strong, and positive leasing spreads in the retail business continue.

While management left FY25 earnings guidance unchanged, Citi expects the Lendlease ((LLC))  communities acquisition
(expected to settle in the 2Q of FY25) will likely be accretive to guidance.

Buy rating. Target rises to $6.00 from $5.30.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.63
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes broadly stable sales trends for Stockland in Q1. While residential enquiries declined for the third successive quarter, the conversion rate has increased to 8% from lows of around 5%.

As the quality of enquiry has picked up, the broker suggests buyers are being spurred by the prospect of falling interest rates.

The Neutral-rated stock now becomes the broker's preferred exposure to residential among the ASX large caps, given the recent downgrade to Mirvac Group ((MGR)) by UBS, also to Neutral.

The $5.32 target for Stockland is maintained.

Target price is $5.32 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter can't hide the tone of disappointment on the latest trading update and capital raising from Select Harvests.

The company has guided to $17m-$19m EBIT against the analyst's estimate of $25.5m for FY25 and net profit well below forecasts.

As a result of delays in transition to new transport contracts a $60m funding deficit emerged, prompting management to undertake an $80m placement and entitlement issue at $3.80 per share.

Some $5m in funds raised are targeted for the Carina West investment for increased capacity of over 10,000kt.

Bell Potter lowers EPS forecasts by -78% in FY24 and -33% in FY25. The broker continues to rate Select Harvests as a Buy on the back of higher almond prices. 

Target price falls to $4.60 from $4.95.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.64
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources