Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

If 29Metals can restart Capricorn Copper, the broker believes there is upside potential for the stock to outperform.

Morgan Stanley lifts the EPS forecast by 95% for FY25 and cuts the FY26 estimate by -29%.

No change to the Equal-weight rating. Target price falls to 13c from 23c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.015
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 102.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABG as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Abacus Group is the beneficiary of the takeover offer received by Abacus Storage King ((ASK)) because it's the manager of the company and also has 19.77% interest.

The analyst estimates the company could receive around $382m at the offer price of $1.47/share, which can be used to pay down debt or reinvest.

The broker notes the company and its associates, along with Ki Corporation (part of buying consortium) will likely be excluded from the vote, so it would be up to minority shareholders to approve.

Buy. Target unchanged at $1.35.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.24
If ABG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has downgraded Ansell to Neutral from Outperform, significantly cutting its price target to $31.05 from $40.30 following the introduction of substantial US tariffs on products from key manufacturing locations.

Ansell expects to offset tariff impacts through pricing, but Macquarie cautiously forecasts only a 75% pass-through, posing potential downside to earnings.

The broker sees Ansell as highly exposed, with 93% of its US supply chain facing tariffs greater than 10%. EPS forecasts have been lowered by -17% and -16% for FY26 and FY27, respectively.

The updated valuation method blends DCF with a sum-of-the-parts approach, reflecting increased near-term uncertainty.

Target price is $31.05 Current Price is $29.39 Difference: $1.66
If ANN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.67, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Citi's key takeaway from Amotiv's investor day was the ingress protection (IP) in the 4WD segment was more than it expected, which helps in minimising manufacturing hours in the OEM assembly lines.

The company provided more details of its cost-out program but the broker didn't make any changes to forecasts until further guidance is provided on the benefit to shareholders and the impact on opex/capex.

The broker notes the company continues to look for bolt-on acquisition opportunities.

Buy. Target unchanged at $12.35.

Target price is $12.35 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $5.07
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 70.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker places BHP Group at the top of its stock preference list, citing an "attractive" commodity mix across iron ore, copper, metallurgical coal, and nickel, with resilient free cash flows.

A robust balance sheet and scope for shareholder returns are also appealing to the broker.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS forecasts by -10% and -9% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Overweight rating retained, with the target price cut to $39.50 from $48.50.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $35.38 Difference: $4.12
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.10, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -38% for FY25, with FY26 forecasts unchanged.

Target price falls to $2.45 from $2.95. No change to the Equal-weight rating, and the broker believes the share price more than discounts any risks related to the Honeymoon ramp-up.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.12
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 69.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Hold (3) -

Morgans is cautious ahead of Bank of Queensland's upcoming 1H25 result, expecting flat pre-provision operating profit and a circa -4% decline in cash EPS, mainly due to increased loan impairments from exceptionally low levels in the previous half.

Home lending shrank by -2.4% during 1H25, though non-housing loans grew by 3.7%. The broker anticipates the net interest margin (NIM) to remain broadly stable at 156 bps.

Morgans lowers its price target to $6.95 from $7.14, reflecting updated terminal rate assumptions, and maintains a Hold rating given operational challenges and skepticism around achieving ambitious FY26 targets.

Earnings forecasts for FY25–FY27 have been reduced modestly.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.41 Difference: $0.54
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS observes the 2024–25 flu vaccine had very low efficacy in the northern hemisphere, with a pre-print study revealing that around 53,000 adult healthcare workers did not experience effective protection during the winter, raising concerns for the next flu season.

The broker highlights people tend to become more hesitant to take the flu vaccine if the previous one offered low protection, which contrasts with the historical trend where a severe flu season typically drives higher vaccine demand.

UBS makes no changes to earnings forecasts for CSL but prefers ResMed ((RMD)) and Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)), both rated Buy.

CSL is Buy rated with an unchanged target price of $310.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $245.80 Difference: $64.2
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $327.51, suggesting upside of 40.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The analyst emphasises the company’s exposure to high-grade iron ore, the mining area C (MAC) asset, and its lower sensitivity to iron ore price changes as a royalty company as positives.

Morgan Stanley lowers FY25 EPS by -1% and raises FY26 by 5%.

Target price unchanged at $3.90, with Equal-weight rating retained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.37
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DYL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating on Deep Yellow despite the delay to its Tumas uranium project Final Investment Decision (FID), which is now scheduled for the second half of 2025.

The broker notes a substantial 32% increase in initial capital expenditure estimates to -US$474m due to higher processing plant costs, prompting a reduction in its price target to $1.70 from $1.90.

Macquarie remains positive, highlighting Deep Yellow’s advantageous position relative to peers experiencing similar delays.

EPS forecasts were adjusted upwards for FY25 but lowered for FY26 and FY27 to reflect higher costs and the delayed first production now expected in early 2028.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.85
If DYL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 116.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EIQ as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has initiated coverage of EchoIQ with a Speculative Buy rating and target price of 38c.

With cardiovascular disease the number one driver of mortality globally, the broker estimates the addressable market for the company is over US$10bn initially. The company's EchoSolv platform has a competitive advantage vs peers due to more accurate diagnosis, speed and consistency.

The broker believes the company has managed costs well, and key milestones for this year include growth in the installed base and FDA clearance for EchoSolve HF in 4Q2025.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.12
If EIQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

Evolution Mining is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight, with the target price set at $5.55 from $5.95. The broker views the process plant expansion at Mungari to 4.2mt p.a. as largely priced into the stock.

Morgan Stanley lifts EPS forecasts by 13% for FY25 and 65% for FY26, while remaining cautious on the high valuation.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $6.76 Difference: minus $1.21 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.23, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The analyst views the weakness in iron ore prices as reasonably priced into Fortescue’s share price, while the company continues to generate robust cash flow. The ramp-up of Iron Bridge is expected to improve the company’s iron ore grade.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS forecasts by -10% and -9% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Fortescue is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight with the target price cut to $16.60 from $18.15.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -10% for FY25 and -6% for FY26.

Target price cut to $16.60 from $18.15. Overweight rating retained.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $14.82 Difference: $1.78
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.58, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GYG as Overweight (1) -

Guzman y Gomez reported 3Q25 comparable sales growth of 11.1% in Australia, improving from 8.7% in 1Q and 10.2% in 2Q, Morgan Stanley explains. At this stage, sales growth is tracking above the 2H25 consensus forecast of 9%.

Third-quarter network sales advanced 23.6% to $285.9m, representing around 47% of the 2H25 consensus estimate, the broker highlights, with management pointing to accelerating sales growth at breakfast and after 9pm.

A maiden dividend is payable in September 2025, with the strategic aim of “the distribution of the majority of earnings to shareholders, while retaining significant flexibility for continued investment in growth.”

In the US, Morgan Stanley notes the guest experience improved over the last quarter with investment in restaurant labour.

No change to the Overweight rating. Target price set at $42. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $31.10 Difference: $10.9
If GYG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.33, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GYG as Add (1) -

Morgans comments Guzman y Gomez delivered another strong quarter, with third-quarter network sales up 23.6% and Australian comparable store sales rising 11.1%.

While comp sales slightly decelerated through the quarter, Morgans attributes this mainly to tougher comparisons from the prior corresponding period.

Despite revising forecasts slightly lower due to reduced comp growth expectations, the Add rating has been retained. The broker views the company's strong earnings trajectory and robust unit economics favourably.

The price target has been reduced to $38.00 from $42.50, reflecting lower market multiples for high-growth US quick-service peers. Earnings forecasts for FY25–27 have been modestly trimmed.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $31.10 Difference: $6.9
If GYG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.33, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GYG as Neutral (3) -

UBS maintains a Neutral rating on Guzman y Gomez but has lowered its price target to $35 from $40 following a modest reduction in earnings estimates.

Third-quarter sales showed continued strength, with Australasian comparable-store sales up 11.1%, driven by menu innovation and strong daypart growth, despite a slight deceleration later in the quarter.

UBS trimmed its underlying EBITDA forecasts by -5.9% to -11.0% over FY25–27, reflecting reduced growth expectations and tighter corporate restaurant margins in Australasia plus slower progress in the US market.

While the long-term outlook remains attractive, the broker refers to near-term earnings risks and elevated valuation relative to peers. Earnings forecasts have been lowered across the forecast period.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $31.10 Difference: $3.9
If GYG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.33, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi acknowledges net inflows could be weaker than anticipated for wealth platforms, as advisers and clients focus on managing current conditions, slowing transitions to Hub24 and Netwealth Group ((NWL)).

With the ASX200 down -9% year-to-date, Citi reduces FY25 funds under administration for both companies by -6%, partially offset by higher revenue margins from increased trading revenues, improved cash balances, and fee-tiering for administration.

Nevertheless, the broker upgrades both stocks to Buy, with a lower target price for Hub at $71.50, down -16%.

The analyst notes that structural growth in the overall platform industry will continue, supported by flows from industry funds.

Target price is $71.50 Current Price is $59.27 Difference: $12.23
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $78.99, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IEL as Outperform (1) -

Outperform rating on IDP Education has been retained, with unchanged price target of $16.00, despite minor tweaks to earnings forecasts.

Macquarie notes the upcoming elections in Canada and Australia could significantly reduce policy uncertainty for student placements, the company's core business segment, if the current governments retain power as polling suggests.

Although student immigration policy risks have eased, the share price is seen trading at its lowest forward P/E multiple (19x) since IDP Education's 2015 listing.

Forecast adjustments are minimal, with Macquarie expecting an eventual return to growth post-FY25, particularly benefiting from stable government immigration policies.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $7.12
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 76.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IGL as Re-initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has re-initiated coverage of IVE Group with a Buy rating and $3.40 target price.

The broker highlights the company's key strength is in the printing and communications operations where price competition is limited due to industry consolidation.

Going ahead, the packaging division will provide additional support as new capacity comes online through FY25-27. The broker reckons the $150m packaging revenue aim by FY29 would add $20-25m to earnings (EBITDA).

For this year, the analyst sees upside risk to FY25 net profit, forecasting $52m vs the company's guidance of $47-50m.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $1.16
If IGL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting range bound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

Rating for IGO Ltd upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target cut to $4.00 from $5.30.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.7
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 50.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

IGO Ltd is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight, while the target price slips to $3.50 from $3.85.

The analyst believes the positive outlook for exposure to clean energy materials is more than reflected in the share price at current levels, though remains cautious on higher capex, a slower ramp-up at Kwinana, and volume growth at Greenbushes.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS estimates by -44% for FY25 and -30% for FY26.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.2
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 50.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker highlights Iluka Resources’ opportunity to develop Atacama and Wimmera but sees technical risks related to ore processing.

Morgan Stanley lowers the FY25 EPS estimate by -18% and lifts FY26 by 34%.

No change to the Equal-weight rating. Target price falls to $3.65 from $4.45.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.16
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting upside of 67.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting rangebound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

No change to Liontown Resources' Neutral rating. Target cut to 50c from 60c.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.03
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.71, suggesting upside of 54.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

Lynas Rare Earths remains Underweight rated, with the target price raised to $7 from $5.65. The broker highlights the share price largely tracks the NdPr price and sees downside risk to consensus 2025 price expectations.

Morgan Stanley lifts the FY25 EPS estimate by 28% and FY26 by 1%.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.54 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter downgrades earnings forecasts for Mineral Resources following the third quarter report and management's comments regarding the Onslow Iron Project haul road.

The broker lowers the FY25 production forecast to 8.4mt from 9.1mt and the FY26 estimate to 30mt from 33mt, expecting ongoing commissioning delays of automated road trains.

The analyst also raises cost forecasts for Mineco and extends the anticipated reduction in lithium production from Mt Marion and Wodgina until FY27.

Bell Potter reduces EBITDA by -9% for FY25 and -12% for FY26. Target price falls to $29 from $39.50. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $16.38 Difference: $12.62
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.37, suggesting upside of 105.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting rangebound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

No change to Mineral Resources' Neutral rating. Target cut to $20 from $28.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.38 Difference: $3.62
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.37, suggesting upside of 105.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker likes Mineral Resources’ commodity mix, particularly with an "improving" outlook for iron ore as Ashburton ramps up. The company’s gearing levels are anticipated to improve from FY25 onwards.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS forecasts by -89% for FY25 and -33% for FY26.

Overweight rating unchanged. Target price falls to $35 from $50.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $16.38 Difference: $18.62
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.37, suggesting upside of 105.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NDO as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has initiated coverage of Nido Education with a Buy rating and target price of $1.50.

The broker highlights the early childcare provider's capital-efficient expansion strategy, which shifts development risks to third parties. This provides higher returns and less dilution for shareholders.

Industry backdrop is favourable for childcare centres, the broker notes, but also highlights structural challenges like staffing and labour costs, and pricing and affordability.

The analyst is forecasting 25% annual revenue growth over FY25-27 and EBITDA growth of 30% on expectations of a 20% increase in centres. 

One of the positives is the company could become an M&A target while an overhang is more than 50% of the shares are in escrow until Oct 2025 (held by founder and early investors).

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.71
If NDO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

Nickel Industries is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight, with the target price cut to 55c from $1. The broker sees risks related to changes in Indonesian royalties and the potential for a nickel surplus in 2025 due to lower demand from tariffs.

Morgan Stanley lifts the FY25 EPS estimate by 5% and cuts the FY26 forecast by -22%.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.055
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 150.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -

In evaluating the outlook for National Storage REIT in the context of falling occupancy trends, Citi notes the REIT is poised for growth as its developments reach the 3-5 year mark where occupancy stabilizes.

The REIT increased its developments five-fold since 2020, the broker notes, but like-for-like occupancy has remained stable and rental growth is providing an upside.

The broker expects the overall return to be boosted by reduced interest costs and potential for cap rate compression.

No change to forecasts. Buy retained. Target unchanged at $2.70.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.53
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker upgrades Northern Star Resources to Overweight from Equal-weight, with a target price increase to $20.50 from $18.40.

Morgan Stanley highlights the expansion of the KCGM mill, which is under construction and will scale production, alongside development of the Fimiston underground resource.

The analyst raises EPS estimates by 10% for FY25 and 87% for FY26.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $19.52 Difference: $0.98
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.54, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi acknowledges net inflows could be weaker than anticipated for wealth platforms, as advisers and clients focus on managing current conditions, slowing transitions to Hub24 ((HUB)) and Netwealth Group.

With the ASX200 down -9% year-to-date, Citi reduces FY25 funds under administration for both companies by -6%, partially offset by higher revenue margins from increased trading revenues, improved cash balances, and fee-tiering for administration.

Nevertheless, the broker upgrades both stocks to Buy, with a lower target price for Netwealth at $26.50, down -14%.

The analyst notes that structural growth in the overall platform industry will continue, supported by flows from industry funds.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $23.13 Difference: $3.37
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.16, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker highlights Paladin Energy’s key growth project is Patterson Lake South in Canada, a 9.1mlb per annum development, while Langer Heinrich continues to focus on offsetting the lower cut-off grade from inventories through resource production.

Morgan Stanley cuts EPS estimates by -641% and -25% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Target price slashed to $5 from $10. No change to Overweight rating.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.79
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.06, suggesting upside of 124.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting range bound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

Rating for Pilbara Minerals upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target cut to $1.65 from $2.40.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.275
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 78.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker views the ramp-up at Pilgangoora as “timely,” given tight market impulses and limited lithium carbonate equivalent growth among peers over the coming years.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS estimates by -108% for FY25 and -58% for FY26.

Target price cut to $1.80 from $2.75. No change to Overweight rating.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.425
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 78.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMT as Buy (1) -

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting range bound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

Rating for Patriot Battery Metals retained at Buy. Target cut to 35c from 50c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.13
If PMT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.74, suggesting upside of 271.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PTM as Hold (3) -

Platinum Asset Management announced a decline in funds under management for March compared to February, with outflows of -$302m or 2.8% of the month’s opening FUM, versus the broker's forecast of 1.3% or -$137m.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -3.3% for FY25 and -12.9% for FY26, while highlighting positive cost control and new product launches.

Target price slips to 58c from 70c, with no change to the Hold rating. Bell Potter states the shares are very cheap, with cash on the balance sheet compared to a market capitalisation of $326m.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.035
If PTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett sees Qoria as a compelling Buy in the current uncertain background.

The broker notes the company is a beneficiary of a weaker AUD, and sees several other factors in favour of the stock. The only negative, according to the analyst, is a likely weakness in Qustudio if there's a consumer recession.

The broker reiterates the company remains a potential M&A candidate.

Buy. Target unchanged at 58c.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.235
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RFF as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter stresses several positive updates for Rural Funds since the 1H25 results.

The broker highlights agricultural land values continued to show support for farmland prices in March, with orchards up 11% year-on-year and northern livestock properties up 3%. Northern cropping values were slightly lower, down -3% year-on-year.

No change to the Buy rating, as the stock is trading at a discount of -44% to its market net asset value. Target price slips to $2.45 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.71
If RFF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades Rio Tinto to Equal-weight from Overweight, with a lower target price of $115 from $126, as the broker considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves.

The analyst highlights we are moving into a seasonally robust period for iron ore supply, and while stock valuations are not demanding, cost curves are being challenged until the Simandou ramp-up, with nameplate production expected by the end of 2028.

Morgan Stanley estimates around 110mt–180mt of production remains at a cash cost above circa US$85–US$90/t. China stimulus would offer a boost to iron ore sentiment.

The broker's EPS estimates are cut by -11% for 2025 and -6% for 2026.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $109.48 Difference: $5.52
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.00, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker believes the company will generate strong free cash flow yields in FY25, which are already reflected in the share price.

Morgan Stanley lifts EPS estimates by 62% for FY25 and 148% for FY26.

Target price raised to $4.05 from $3.35. No change to Equal-weight rating.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker views South32’s ability to generate robust cash flow as a driver of strong shareholder returns, with the Hermosa project expected to boost base metals production.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -4% for FY25 and -6% for FY26.

Overweight rating retained. Target price cut to $2.95 from $3.85.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.3
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 56.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The analyst notes Syrah Resources has a world-class graphite reserve at Balama, and the strategic aim to develop anode materials at Vidalia is sound.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS forecasts by -3% for FY25 and -122% for FY26.

No change to the Equal-weight rating and 20c target price.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.41, suggesting upside of 102.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker notes high inventories in India and China have put downward pressure on prices, despite adverse weather disruptions in Australia. US producers are likely to face cost pressures, with demand expected to improve in 2H25.

Morgan Stanley believes Whitehaven Coal remains fundamentally cheap, with the final investment decision at Winchester South providing further upside to the company’s valuation.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -59% for FY25 and -81% for FY26.

Overweight rating retained. Target price cut to $6.20 from $8.05.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $4.73 Difference: $1.47
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting upside of 78.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources