Australian Broker Call

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April 09, 2025

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ANN - Ansell Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
EVN - Evolution Mining Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
FMG - Fortescue Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
HUB - Hub24 Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
IGO - IGO Ltd Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight Morgan Stanley
NIC - Nickel Industries Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
NST - Northern Star Resources Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
NWL - Netwealth Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
PLS - Pilbara Minerals Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
RIO - Rio Tinto Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
29M  29METALS LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $0.12

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

If 29Metals can restart Capricorn Copper, the broker believes there is upside potential for the stock to outperform.

Morgan Stanley lifts the EPS forecast by 95% for FY25 and cuts the FY26 estimate by -29%.

No change to the Equal-weight rating. Target price falls to 13c from 23c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.015
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 102.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ABG  ABACUS GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $1.11

Citi rates ABG as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Abacus Group is the beneficiary of the takeover offer received by Abacus Storage King ((ASK)) because it's the manager of the company and also has 19.77% interest.

The analyst estimates the company could receive around $382m at the offer price of $1.47/share, which can be used to pay down debt or reinvest.

The broker notes the company and its associates, along with Ki Corporation (part of buying consortium) will likely be excluded from the vote, so it would be up to minority shareholders to approve.

Buy. Target unchanged at $1.35.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.24
If ABG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.70 cents and EPS of 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of -3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANN  ANSELL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

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Overnight Price: $29.39

Macquarie rates ANN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has downgraded Ansell to Neutral from Outperform, significantly cutting its price target to $31.05 from $40.30 following the introduction of substantial US tariffs on products from key manufacturing locations.

Ansell expects to offset tariff impacts through pricing, but Macquarie cautiously forecasts only a 75% pass-through, posing potential downside to earnings.

The broker sees Ansell as highly exposed, with 93% of its US supply chain facing tariffs greater than 10%. EPS forecasts have been lowered by -17% and -16% for FY26 and FY27, respectively.

The updated valuation method blends DCF with a sum-of-the-parts approach, reflecting increased near-term uncertainty.

Target price is $31.05 Current Price is $29.39 Difference: $1.66
If ANN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.67, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 84.74 cents and EPS of 187.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 79.83 cents and EPS of 176.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.2, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AOV  AMOTIV LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

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Overnight Price: $7.28

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Citi's key takeaway from Amotiv's investor day was the ingress protection (IP) in the 4WD segment was more than it expected, which helps in minimising manufacturing hours in the OEM assembly lines.

The company provided more details of its cost-out program but the broker didn't make any changes to forecasts until further guidance is provided on the benefit to shareholders and the impact on opex/capex.

The broker notes the company continues to look for bolt-on acquisition opportunities.

Buy. Target unchanged at $12.35.

Target price is $12.35 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $5.07
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 70.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.40 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 42.40 cents and EPS of 75.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.9, implying annual growth of 5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $35.38

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker places BHP Group at the top of its stock preference list, citing an "attractive" commodity mix across iron ore, copper, metallurgical coal, and nickel, with resilient free cash flows.

A robust balance sheet and scope for shareholder returns are also appealing to the broker.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS forecasts by -10% and -9% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Overweight rating retained, with the target price cut to $39.50 from $48.50.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $35.38 Difference: $4.12
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.10, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 158.12 cents and EPS of 288.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 350.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 171.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 162.73 cents and EPS of 314.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 355.9, implying annual growth of 1.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 181.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOE  BOSS ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium

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Overnight Price: $2.33

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -38% for FY25, with FY26 forecasts unchanged.

Target price falls to $2.45 from $2.95. No change to the Equal-weight rating, and the broker believes the share price more than discounts any risks related to the Honeymoon ramp-up.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.12
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 69.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 77.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of -75.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 76.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 831.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ  BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $6.41

Morgans rates BOQ as Hold (3) -

Morgans is cautious ahead of Bank of Queensland's upcoming 1H25 result, expecting flat pre-provision operating profit and a circa -4% decline in cash EPS, mainly due to increased loan impairments from exceptionally low levels in the previous half.

Home lending shrank by -2.4% during 1H25, though non-housing loans grew by 3.7%. The broker anticipates the net interest margin (NIM) to remain broadly stable at 156 bps.

Morgans lowers its price target to $6.95 from $7.14, reflecting updated terminal rate assumptions, and maintains a Hold rating given operational challenges and skepticism around achieving ambitious FY26 targets.

Earnings forecasts for FY25–FY27 have been reduced modestly.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.41 Difference: $0.54
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.1, implying annual growth of 13.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $245.80

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS observes the 2024–25 flu vaccine had very low efficacy in the northern hemisphere, with a pre-print study revealing that around 53,000 adult healthcare workers did not experience effective protection during the winter, raising concerns for the next flu season.

The broker highlights people tend to become more hesitant to take the flu vaccine if the previous one offered low protection, which contrasts with the historical trend where a severe flu season typically drives higher vaccine demand.

UBS makes no changes to earnings forecasts for CSL but prefers ResMed ((RMD)) and Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)), both rated Buy.

CSL is Buy rated with an unchanged target price of $310.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $245.80 Difference: $64.2
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $327.51, suggesting upside of 40.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 454.41 cents and EPS of 971.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1081.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 496.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Forecast for FY26:

UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 508.14 cents and EPS of 1112.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1241.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 559.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR  DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $3.53

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The analyst emphasises the company’s exposure to high-grade iron ore, the mining area C (MAC) asset, and its lower sensitivity to iron ore price changes as a royalty company as positives.

Morgan Stanley lowers FY25 EPS by -1% and raises FY26 by 5%.

Target price unchanged at $3.90, with Equal-weight rating retained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.37
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.20 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 25.10 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of -0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DYL  DEEP YELLOW LIMITED

Uranium

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Overnight Price: $0.85

Macquarie rates DYL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating on Deep Yellow despite the delay to its Tumas uranium project Final Investment Decision (FID), which is now scheduled for the second half of 2025.

The broker notes a substantial 32% increase in initial capital expenditure estimates to -US$474m due to higher processing plant costs, prompting a reduction in its price target to $1.70 from $1.90.

Macquarie remains positive, highlighting Deep Yellow’s advantageous position relative to peers experiencing similar delays.

EPS forecasts were adjusted upwards for FY25 but lowered for FY26 and FY27 to reflect higher costs and the delayed first production now expected in early 2028.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.85
If DYL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 116.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 141.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 141.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EIQ  ECHOIQ LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $0.26

Ord Minnett rates EIQ as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has initiated coverage of EchoIQ with a Speculative Buy rating and target price of 38c.

With cardiovascular disease the number one driver of mortality globally, the broker estimates the addressable market for the company is over US$10bn initially. The company's EchoSolv platform has a competitive advantage vs peers due to more accurate diagnosis, speed and consistency.

The broker believes the company has managed costs well, and key milestones for this year include growth in the installed base and FDA clearance for EchoSolve HF in 4Q2025.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.12
If EIQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.67.

Forecast for FY26:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 130.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $6.76

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

Evolution Mining is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight, with the target price set at $5.55 from $5.95. The broker views the process plant expansion at Mungari to 4.2mt p.a. as largely priced into the stock.

Morgan Stanley lifts EPS forecasts by 13% for FY25 and 65% for FY26, while remaining cautious on the high valuation.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $6.76 Difference: minus $1.21 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.23, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 23.60 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.1, implying annual growth of 109.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 35.60 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.1, implying annual growth of 23.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $14.82

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The analyst views the weakness in iron ore prices as reasonably priced into Fortescue’s share price, while the company continues to generate robust cash flow. The ramp-up of Iron Bridge is expected to improve the company’s iron ore grade.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS forecasts by -10% and -9% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Fortescue is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight with the target price cut to $16.60 from $18.15.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -10% for FY25 and -6% for FY26.

Target price cut to $16.60 from $18.15. Overweight rating retained.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $14.82 Difference: $1.78
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.58, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 110.90 cents and EPS of 156.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 109.70 cents and EPS of 158.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.1, implying annual growth of -8.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GYG  GUZMAN Y GOMEZ LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $31.10

Morgan Stanley rates GYG as Overweight (1) -

Guzman y Gomez reported 3Q25 comparable sales growth of 11.1% in Australia, improving from 8.7% in 1Q and 10.2% in 2Q, Morgan Stanley explains. At this stage, sales growth is tracking above the 2H25 consensus forecast of 9%.

Third-quarter network sales advanced 23.6% to $285.9m, representing around 47% of the 2H25 consensus estimate, the broker highlights, with management pointing to accelerating sales growth at breakfast and after 9pm.

A maiden dividend is payable in September 2025, with the strategic aim of “the distribution of the majority of earnings to shareholders, while retaining significant flexibility for continued investment in growth.”

In the US, Morgan Stanley notes the guest experience improved over the last quarter with investment in restaurant labour.

No change to the Overweight rating. Target price set at $42. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $31.10 Difference: $10.9
If GYG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.33, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 207.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 259.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 107.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 108.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 124.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates GYG as Add (1) -

Morgans comments Guzman y Gomez delivered another strong quarter, with third-quarter network sales up 23.6% and Australian comparable store sales rising 11.1%.

While comp sales slightly decelerated through the quarter, Morgans attributes this mainly to tougher comparisons from the prior corresponding period.

Despite revising forecasts slightly lower due to reduced comp growth expectations, the Add rating has been retained. The broker views the company's strong earnings trajectory and robust unit economics favourably.

The price target has been reduced to $38.00 from $42.50, reflecting lower market multiples for high-growth US quick-service peers. Earnings forecasts for FY25–27 have been modestly trimmed.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $31.10 Difference: $6.9
If GYG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.33, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 239.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 259.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 124.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 108.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 124.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GYG as Neutral (3) -

UBS maintains a Neutral rating on Guzman y Gomez but has lowered its price target to $35 from $40 following a modest reduction in earnings estimates.

Third-quarter sales showed continued strength, with Australasian comparable-store sales up 11.1%, driven by menu innovation and strong daypart growth, despite a slight deceleration later in the quarter.

UBS trimmed its underlying EBITDA forecasts by -5.9% to -11.0% over FY25–27, reflecting reduced growth expectations and tighter corporate restaurant margins in Australasia plus slower progress in the US market.

While the long-term outlook remains attractive, the broker refers to near-term earnings risks and elevated valuation relative to peers. Earnings forecasts have been lowered across the forecast period.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $31.10 Difference: $3.9
If GYG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.33, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 345.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 259.3.

Forecast for FY26:

UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 135.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 108.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 124.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB  HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $59.27

Citi rates HUB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi acknowledges net inflows could be weaker than anticipated for wealth platforms, as advisers and clients focus on managing current conditions, slowing transitions to Hub24 and Netwealth Group ((NWL)).

With the ASX200 down -9% year-to-date, Citi reduces FY25 funds under administration for both companies by -6%, partially offset by higher revenue margins from increased trading revenues, improved cash balances, and fee-tiering for administration.

Nevertheless, the broker upgrades both stocks to Buy, with a lower target price for Hub at $71.50, down -16%.

The analyst notes that structural growth in the overall platform industry will continue, supported by flows from industry funds.

Target price is $71.50 Current Price is $59.27 Difference: $12.23
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $78.99, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.5, implying annual growth of 91.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.8, implying annual growth of 24.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL  IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition

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Overnight Price: $8.88

Macquarie rates IEL as Outperform (1) -

Outperform rating on IDP Education has been retained, with unchanged price target of $16.00, despite minor tweaks to earnings forecasts.

Macquarie notes the upcoming elections in Canada and Australia could significantly reduce policy uncertainty for student placements, the company's core business segment, if the current governments retain power as polling suggests.

Although student immigration policy risks have eased, the share price is seen trading at its lowest forward P/E multiple (19x) since IDP Education's 2015 listing.

Forecast adjustments are minimal, with Macquarie expecting an eventual return to growth post-FY25, particularly benefiting from stable government immigration policies.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $7.12
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 76.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 37.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of -19.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 47.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.8, implying annual growth of 24.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGL  IVE GROUP LIMITED

Media

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Overnight Price: $2.24

Shaw and Partners rates IGL as Re-initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has re-initiated coverage of IVE Group with a Buy rating and $3.40 target price.

The broker highlights the company's key strength is in the printing and communications operations where price competition is limited due to industry consolidation.

Going ahead, the packaging division will provide additional support as new capacity comes online through FY25-27. The broker reckons the $150m packaging revenue aim by FY29 would add $20-25m to earnings (EBITDA).

For this year, the analyst sees upside risk to FY25 net profit, forecasting $52m vs the company's guidance of $47-50m.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $1.16
If IGL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.69.

Forecast for FY26:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 34.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.42.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO  IGO LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.30

Citi rates IGO as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting range bound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

Rating for IGO Ltd upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target cut to $4.00 from $5.30.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.7
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 50.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -23.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

IGO Ltd is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight, while the target price slips to $3.50 from $3.85.

The analyst believes the positive outlook for exposure to clean energy materials is more than reflected in the share price at current levels, though remains cautious on higher capex, a slower ramp-up at Kwinana, and volume growth at Greenbushes.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS estimates by -44% for FY25 and -30% for FY26.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.2
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 50.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -23.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands

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Overnight Price: $3.49

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker highlights Iluka Resources’ opportunity to develop Atacama and Wimmera but sees technical risks related to ore processing.

Morgan Stanley lowers the FY25 EPS estimate by -18% and lifts FY26 by 34%.

No change to the Equal-weight rating. Target price falls to $3.65 from $4.45.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.16
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting upside of 67.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.0, implying annual growth of -20.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.5, implying annual growth of 19.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR  LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.47

Citi rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting rangebound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

No change to Liontown Resources' Neutral rating. Target cut to 50c from 60c.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.03
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.71, suggesting upside of 54.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 47.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC  LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals

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Overnight Price: $7.54

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

Lynas Rare Earths remains Underweight rated, with the target price raised to $7 from $5.65. The broker highlights the share price largely tracks the NdPr price and sees downside risk to consensus 2025 price expectations.

Morgan Stanley lifts the FY25 EPS estimate by 28% and FY26 by 1%.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.54 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 125.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.2, implying annual growth of -20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 106.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.3, implying annual growth of 765.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $16.38

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter downgrades earnings forecasts for Mineral Resources following the third quarter report and management's comments regarding the Onslow Iron Project haul road.

The broker lowers the FY25 production forecast to 8.4mt from 9.1mt and the FY26 estimate to 30mt from 33mt, expecting ongoing commissioning delays of automated road trains.

The analyst also raises cost forecasts for Mineco and extends the anticipated reduction in lithium production from Mt Marion and Wodgina until FY27.

Bell Potter reduces EBITDA by -9% for FY25 and -12% for FY26. Target price falls to $29 from $39.50. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $16.38 Difference: $12.62
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.37, suggesting upside of 105.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 132.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -106.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 131.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting rangebound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

No change to Mineral Resources' Neutral rating. Target cut to $20 from $28.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.38 Difference: $3.62
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.37, suggesting upside of 105.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 90.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -106.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 61.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker likes Mineral Resources’ commodity mix, particularly with an "improving" outlook for iron ore as Ashburton ramps up. The company’s gearing levels are anticipated to improve from FY25 onwards.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS forecasts by -89% for FY25 and -33% for FY26.

Overweight rating unchanged. Target price falls to $35 from $50.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $16.38 Difference: $18.62
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.37, suggesting upside of 105.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 137.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -106.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 245.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NDO  NIDO EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare

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Overnight Price: $0.79

Shaw and Partners rates NDO as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has initiated coverage of Nido Education with a Buy rating and target price of $1.50.

The broker highlights the early childcare provider's capital-efficient expansion strategy, which shifts development risks to third parties. This provides higher returns and less dilution for shareholders.

Industry backdrop is favourable for childcare centres, the broker notes, but also highlights structural challenges like staffing and labour costs, and pricing and affordability.

The analyst is forecasting 25% annual revenue growth over FY25-27 and EBITDA growth of 30% on expectations of a 20% increase in centres. 

One of the positives is the company could become an M&A target while an overhang is more than 50% of the shares are in escrow until Oct 2025 (held by founder and early investors).

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.71
If NDO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.19.

Forecast for FY26:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NIC  NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $0.50

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

Nickel Industries is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight, with the target price cut to 55c from $1. The broker sees risks related to changes in Indonesian royalties and the potential for a nickel surplus in 2025 due to lower demand from tariffs.

Morgan Stanley lifts the FY25 EPS estimate by 5% and cuts the FY26 forecast by -22%.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.055
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 150.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 4.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 9.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of 59.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 16.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NSR  NATIONAL STORAGE REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.17

Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -

In evaluating the outlook for National Storage REIT in the context of falling occupancy trends, Citi notes the REIT is poised for growth as its developments reach the 3-5 year mark where occupancy stabilizes.

The REIT increased its developments five-fold since 2020, the broker notes, but like-for-like occupancy has remained stable and rental growth is providing an upside.

The broker expects the overall return to be boosted by reduced interest costs and potential for cap rate compression.

No change to forecasts. Buy retained. Target unchanged at $2.70.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.53
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of -29.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 12.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $19.52

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker upgrades Northern Star Resources to Overweight from Equal-weight, with a target price increase to $20.50 from $18.40.

Morgan Stanley highlights the expansion of the KCGM mill, which is under construction and will scale production, alongside development of the Fimiston underground resource.

The analyst raises EPS estimates by 10% for FY25 and 87% for FY26.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $19.52 Difference: $0.98
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.54, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 48.50 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.0, implying annual growth of 97.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 64.50 cents and EPS of 171.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.5, implying annual growth of 51.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL  NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $23.13

Citi rates NWL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi acknowledges net inflows could be weaker than anticipated for wealth platforms, as advisers and clients focus on managing current conditions, slowing transitions to Hub24 ((HUB)) and Netwealth Group.

With the ASX200 down -9% year-to-date, Citi reduces FY25 funds under administration for both companies by -6%, partially offset by higher revenue margins from increased trading revenues, improved cash balances, and fee-tiering for administration.

Nevertheless, the broker upgrades both stocks to Buy, with a lower target price for Netwealth at $26.50, down -14%.

The analyst notes that structural growth in the overall platform industry will continue, supported by flows from industry funds.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $23.13 Difference: $3.37
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.16, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.6, implying annual growth of 36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of 21.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDN  PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium

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Overnight Price: $4.21

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker highlights Paladin Energy’s key growth project is Patterson Lake South in Canada, a 9.1mlb per annum development, while Langer Heinrich continues to focus on offsetting the lower cut-off grade from inventories through resource production.

Morgan Stanley cuts EPS estimates by -641% and -25% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Target price slashed to $5 from $10. No change to Overweight rating.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.79
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.06, suggesting upside of 124.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 274.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 53.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS  PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $1.38

Citi rates PLS as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting range bound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

Rating for Pilbara Minerals upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target cut to $1.65 from $2.40.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.275
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 78.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker views the ramp-up at Pilgangoora as “timely,” given tight market impulses and limited lithium carbonate equivalent growth among peers over the coming years.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS estimates by -108% for FY25 and -58% for FY26.

Target price cut to $1.80 from $2.75. No change to Overweight rating.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.425
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 78.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMT  PATRIOT BATTERY METALS INC

Mining

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Overnight Price: $0.22

Citi rates PMT as Buy (1) -

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting range bound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

Rating for Patriot Battery Metals retained at Buy. Target cut to 35c from 50c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.13
If PMT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.74, suggesting upside of 271.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM  PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $0.55

Bell Potter rates PTM as Hold (3) -

Platinum Asset Management announced a decline in funds under management for March compared to February, with outflows of -$302m or 2.8% of the month’s opening FUM, versus the broker's forecast of 1.3% or -$137m.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -3.3% for FY25 and -12.9% for FY26, while highlighting positive cost control and new product launches.

Target price slips to 58c from 70c, with no change to the Hold rating. Bell Potter states the shares are very cheap, with cash on the balance sheet compared to a market capitalisation of $326m.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.035
If PTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 42.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.79.

Forecast for FY26:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.69.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QOR  QORIA LIMITED

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $0.35

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett sees Qoria as a compelling Buy in the current uncertain background.

The broker notes the company is a beneficiary of a weaker AUD, and sees several other factors in favour of the stock. The only negative, according to the analyst, is a likely weakness in Qustudio if there's a consumer recession.

The broker reiterates the company remains a potential M&A candidate.

Buy. Target unchanged at 58c.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.235
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.29.

Forecast for FY26:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 345.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RFF  RURAL FUNDS GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $1.74

Bell Potter rates RFF as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter stresses several positive updates for Rural Funds since the 1H25 results.

The broker highlights agricultural land values continued to show support for farmland prices in March, with orchards up 11% year-on-year and northern livestock properties up 3%. Northern cropping values were slightly lower, down -3% year-on-year.

No change to the Buy rating, as the stock is trading at a discount of -44% to its market net asset value. Target price slips to $2.45 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.71
If RFF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.40.

Forecast for FY26:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina

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Overnight Price: $109.48

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades Rio Tinto to Equal-weight from Overweight, with a lower target price of $115 from $126, as the broker considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves.

The analyst highlights we are moving into a seasonally robust period for iron ore supply, and while stock valuations are not demanding, cost curves are being challenged until the Simandou ramp-up, with nameplate production expected by the end of 2028.

Morgan Stanley estimates around 110mt–180mt of production remains at a cash cost above circa US$85–US$90/t. China stimulus would offer a boost to iron ore sentiment.

The broker's EPS estimates are cut by -11% for 2025 and -6% for 2026.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $109.48 Difference: $5.52
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.00, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 541.91 cents and EPS of 896.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1099.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 677.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 560.33 cents and EPS of 928.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1070.0, implying annual growth of -2.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 660.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $4.22

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker believes the company will generate strong free cash flow yields in FY25, which are already reflected in the share price.

Morgan Stanley lifts EPS estimates by 62% for FY25 and 148% for FY26.

Target price raised to $4.05 from $3.35. No change to Equal-weight rating.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of 78.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $2.65

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker views South32’s ability to generate robust cash flow as a driver of strong shareholder returns, with the Hermosa project expected to boost base metals production.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -4% for FY25 and -6% for FY26.

Overweight rating retained. Target price cut to $2.95 from $3.85.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.3
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting upside of 56.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.13 cents and EPS of 32.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.73 cents and EPS of 42.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.0, implying annual growth of 36.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYR  SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.20

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The analyst notes Syrah Resources has a world-class graphite reserve at Balama, and the strategic aim to develop anode materials at Vidalia is sound.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS forecasts by -3% for FY25 and -122% for FY26.

No change to the Equal-weight rating and 20c target price.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.41, suggesting upside of 102.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC  WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $4.73

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners' cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker notes high inventories in India and China have put downward pressure on prices, despite adverse weather disruptions in Australia. US producers are likely to face cost pressures, with demand expected to improve in 2H25.

Morgan Stanley believes Whitehaven Coal remains fundamentally cheap, with the final investment decision at Winchester South providing further upside to the company’s valuation.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -59% for FY25 and -81% for FY26.

Overweight rating retained. Target price cut to $6.20 from $8.05.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $4.73 Difference: $1.47
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting upside of 78.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of -3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of 40.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
29M 29Metals $0.11 Morgan Stanley 0.13 0.23 -43.48%
ANN Ansell $28.22 Macquarie 31.05 40.30 -22.95%
BHP BHP Group $34.16 Morgan Stanley 39.50 48.50 -18.56%
BOE Boss Energy $2.23 Morgan Stanley 2.45 2.95 -16.95%
BOQ Bank of Queensland $6.28 Morgans 6.95 7.14 -2.66%
DYL Deep Yellow $0.79 Macquarie 1.70 1.90 -10.53%
EVN Evolution Mining $6.63 Morgan Stanley 5.55 5.95 -6.72%
FMG Fortescue $14.20 Morgan Stanley 16.60 18.15 -8.54%
GYG Guzman y Gomez $31.90 Morgan Stanley 42.00 38.50 9.09%
Morgans 38.00 42.50 -10.59%
UBS 35.00 40.00 -12.50%
HUB Hub24 $57.41 Citi 71.50 84.80 -15.68%
IGL IVE Group $2.31 Shaw and Partners 3.40 N/A -
IGO IGO Ltd $3.10 Citi 4.00 5.30 -24.53%
Morgan Stanley 3.50 3.85 -9.09%
ILU Iluka Resources $3.14 Morgan Stanley 3.65 4.45 -17.98%
LTR Liontown Resources $0.46 Citi 0.50 0.60 -16.67%
LYC Lynas Rare Earths $7.69 Morgan Stanley 7.00 5.65 23.89%
MIN Mineral Resources $14.28 Bell Potter 29.00 39.50 -26.58%
Citi 20.00 28.00 -28.57%
Morgan Stanley 35.00 50.00 -30.00%
NIC Nickel Industries $0.43 Morgan Stanley 0.55 1.00 -45.00%
NST Northern Star Resources $19.29 Morgan Stanley 20.50 18.40 11.41%
NWL Netwealth Group $22.61 Citi 26.50 30.70 -13.68%
PDN Paladin Energy $4.03 Morgan Stanley 5.00 10.00 -50.00%
PLS Pilbara Minerals $1.26 Citi 1.65 2.40 -31.25%
Morgan Stanley 1.80 2.75 -34.55%
PMT Patriot Battery Metals $0.20 Citi 0.35 0.50 -30.00%
PTM Platinum Asset Management $0.54 Bell Potter 0.58 0.70 -17.14%
RFF Rural Funds $1.71 Bell Potter 2.45 2.50 -2.00%
RIO Rio Tinto $103.99 Morgan Stanley 115.00 126.00 -8.73%
RRL Regis Resources $4.12 Morgan Stanley 4.05 3.35 20.90%
S32 South32 $2.53 Morgan Stanley 2.95 3.85 -23.38%
WHC Whitehaven Coal $4.63 Morgan Stanley 6.20 8.05 -22.98%
Summaries
29M 29Metals Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.12
ABG Abacus Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $1.11
ANN Ansell Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $29.39
AOV Amotiv Buy - Citi Overnight Price $7.28
BHP BHP Group Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $35.38
BOE Boss Energy Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.33
BOQ Bank of Queensland Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $6.41
CSL CSL Buy - UBS Overnight Price $245.80
DRR Deterra Royalties Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.53
DYL Deep Yellow Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.85
EIQ EchoIQ Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.26
EVN Evolution Mining Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.76
FMG Fortescue Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $14.82
GYG Guzman y Gomez Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $31.10
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $31.10
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $31.10
HUB Hub24 Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $59.27
IEL IDP Education Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.88
IGL IVE Group Re-initiation of coverage with Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $2.24
IGO IGO Ltd Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.30
Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.30
ILU Iluka Resources Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.49
LTR Liontown Resources Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $0.47
LYC Lynas Rare Earths Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.54
MIN Mineral Resources Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $16.38
Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $16.38
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $16.38
NDO Nido Education Initiation of coverage with Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $0.79
NIC Nickel Industries Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.50
NSR National Storage REIT Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.17
NST Northern Star Resources Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $19.52
NWL Netwealth Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $23.13
PDN Paladin Energy Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.21
PLS Pilbara Minerals Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $1.38
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.38
PMT Patriot Battery Metals Buy - Citi Overnight Price $0.22
PTM Platinum Asset Management Hold - Bell Potter Overnight Price $0.55
QOR Qoria Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.35
RFF Rural Funds Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $1.74
RIO Rio Tinto Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $109.48
RRL Regis Resources Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.22
S32 South32 Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.65
SYR Syrah Resources Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.20
WHC Whitehaven Coal Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.73
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

27

3. Hold

15

5. Sell

2

Wednesday 09 April 2025

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