Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 4DX as Speculative Buy (1) -

4DMedical's March Q update was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations from a cash flow perspective and highlighted ongoing positive developments in the US and Australia.

The broker expects to see 4DMedical execute its reseller agreement with Philips this quarter, allowing the company to scale rapidly into the potential Veterans Affairs opportunity, and more broadly in the US.

Pressure remains on the VA to formalise veteran screening programs, with 18 US Senators signing a letter last month urging the
VA to expedite implementation, the broker highlights.

Speculative Buy and $1.20 target retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.6
If 4DX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIS as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie assesses the 3Q24 results for Aeris Resources as mixed, pointing to better than expected gold output, an 11% beat, against a -7% miss on the copper results.

In total, copper and gold production rose 19% and 13% on the year, while AISC came in -13% this quarter but up 10% annually.

The broker views the retention of previous guidance as positive and notes the feasibility study for the Barbara underground has started, due to be finished in the 1Q2025.

The forecast expected loss for 2024 is lowered and FY25 EPS lifts by 5% post the adjustment in the cost expectations.

Due to the strength in the share price, the rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target lifted 33% to 20c on the back of the EPS forecasts changes.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: minus $0.055 (current price is over target).
If AIS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses the 1Q results for Ampol as "choppy", noting that refining margins were softer in April, specifically for jet and diesel, while EBIT was lower on softer Lytton refinery utilisation.

Higher oil prices, and weaker diesel demand, impacted on refining margins and the broker lowers the forecast refinery production to 5.8BL from 5.9BL over 2024.

The company noted consumers are trading down to cheaper fuels which is impacting on the Z premium brand.

Accounting for the lower margins and volumes, as well as reduced earnings from Z Energy, Macquarie adjusts earnings forecasts by -9% for FY24 and -7% for FY25.

The broker retains an Overweight rating on the stock and sees the potential for a special dividend. The target price is reduced by -5% to $40.35.

Target price is $40.35 Current Price is $36.81 Difference: $3.54
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.44, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Equal-weight (3) -

Judging from Morgan Stanley's commentary, Ampol's market update disappointed through a lower-than-anticipated Lytton Refiner Margin. The broker's indication is a miss in the order of -8%.

Not helping matters is an unplanned refinery-wide steam outage which also meant refinery production missed forecasts as well.

The Equal-weight rating and $40 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive. But forecasts are poised for a serious downgrade, that much is indicated.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.81 Difference: $3.19
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.44, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

According to Citi's early assessment, Amcor has managed to beat forecasts on EPS and EBIT in Q3. Volumes for Flexibles proved healthier than anticipated.

Management has raised FY24 EPS guidance to US68.5-71c and the broker believes consensus is currently set for US68.4c. Lower interest costs are assisting.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $1.68
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.53, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial glance, it appears Amcor's Q3 release has beaten market expectations by some 6.6% at the EPS line, Macquarie comments.

Volumes were down, but less so than in previous periods, and management has managed to contain costs, guiding to slightly lower costs ahead.

Guidance for FY24 has been lifted to circa 2% above market consensus, on the broker's assessment. All in all, Macquarie would label today's release as underlying better-than-expected, with a mild upgrade for FY24.

Neutral. Target $14.90.

Target price is $14.90 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $1.08
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.53, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley, upon first assessment, spotted a solid result with improved margins from Amcor today, despite further top-line declines.

The company's expectation of abating de-stocking and a top-line inflection point are encouraging, the broker finds, while cost-out initiatives appear to be working.

The broker does make a point that Amcor's growth outlook remains modest. Within this context, the current valuation is seen as "fair".

Equal-Weight rating and $14.50 target price. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $0.68
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.53, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARX as Add (1) -

Aroa Biosurgery's March Q cashflow report was broadly in line with Morgans' expectations. it appears that the re-alignment of product shipments to TELA Bio, as it right-sizes its inventory holding, is now complete.

This should see Aroa sales to TELA Bio re-align to its sales trajectory, the broker notes. TELA Bio is guiding to 27-30% growth year on year.

Morgans believes that compared with domestic peers, Aroa is trading at attractive levels, and recent international M&A activity in the
wound care space supports a higher valuation. Add and $1.20 target retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.7
If ARX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 140% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AVL as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners only initiated coverage of Australian Vanadium with a Buy recommendation and $0.08 price target on April 19.

The March quarter update showed Australian Vanadium implemented its merger with Technology Metals, integrating two projects on one contiguous orebody.

The broker highlights Vanadium Flow Batteries are technically proven and an economically viable medium and long duration stationary energy storage solutions. The view remains VFBs will play a crucial role in balancing the grid as the decade progresses.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.066
If AVL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 471% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy (1) -

Antipa Minerals' quarterly update revealed extension of the GEO-01 gold footprint and the identification of three new gold targets within the Minyari Dome project. 

Shaw and Partners' Buy rating and target price of 4 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.028
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley thinks market sentiment will take another turn for the worse now the fresh CEO designate has decided not to take up his job at Bapcor.

Equal-Weight. Target $5.75. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $0.1
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.24, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BC8 as Buy (1) -

Buy rating and target price of 74c are retained as Shaw and Partners identifies encouraging near mine exploration results and continued progress towards a restart at Paulsens as the two highlights of the released March quarter market update.

The company's new funding package is substantially on the same terms as the previous package, reports the broker. Black Cat should join the ranks of Australia's active gold miners by the end of 2024.

Shaw and Partners notes a new regional prospect named Grey Goose has been identified 500m from the existing Belvedere deposit, some 5km from Paulsens processing facility.

Paulsens currently has a mine life of only 4.2yrs, but the broker believes encouraging extensional and regional exploration results have the potential to materially increase that number.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.465
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 169% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley's update suggests investors might have to wait until Waitsia starts producing in early 2025 to see Beach Energy shares perform better.

In the short term, the broker suspects there's ongoing risk to management's production guidance. The planned strategic review is likely to focus on cost reduction, says the broker.

All this leaves 2024 looking like simply another year of high expenditure and little momentum for returns and growth, is the explicit conclusion made.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained and the target falls to $1.68 from $1.71. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.07
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRI as Buy (1) -

Big River Industries has released a weak March Q trading update, Ord Minnett notes.

While the third quarter is a seasonally a weaker period, results were impacted by persistent delays and associated negative fixed cost leverage, further compounded by additional gross margin pressure.

The broker expects these conditions to persist in the short-term, with FY24-25 earnings forecasts implying a cyclical low. Thereafter Ord Minnett believes the medium-to-longer term pipeline continues to strengthen, buoyed by a chronic housing underbuild and elevated
migration.

Target falls to $1.91 from $2.39, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.91 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.275
If BRI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BUB as Hold (3) -

Bubs Australia reported a softer March Q result than Bell Potter expected. Gross revenues were up 32% year on year but below forecast, due to weakness in the US and China.

R12M revenues are running at -12% year on year so a strong June Q is required to exceed Bub’s $100m gross sales target, the broker notes. Average monthly cash burn year to date is -$2.6m.

At this stage, Bell Potter sees the share price as reasonably balancing the risks associated with the targets. On higher peer group multiples, target rises to 15c from 14c. Hold retained.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0
If BUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Outperform (1) -

Coles Group reported 5% supermarket sales for the 3Q24, although Easter was not included in these results, highlights Macquarie.

Notably the previous corresponding period was affected by a number of factors such as chicken shortages and the collapse of a distributor; nevertheless, sales ex-tabacco rose 6.6% over the period.

The broker points to strength in the online business (Click and Collect) and is positive on Swaggle, the new Pet offering.

Liquor sales declined -1.8% and management pointed to potentially weaker volumes versus wage pressures impacting on the operating leverage for 4Q24.

Macquarie adjusts the earnings forecasts by circa 1% for FY24 through to FY26 due to the better-than-expected Supermarkets performance versus the weaker Liquor division.

An Overweight rating is retained and the target price stays at $17.50.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $16.22 Difference: $1.28
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.41, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Equal-weight (3) -

Coles Group's quarterly update revealed an acceleration in same store growth for Supermarkets, to 4.2% from 3.6% in Q2, points out Morgan Stanley.

Volume growth was positive amidst falling inflation. Customers remain focused on value for money. Liquor's performance was in line with the preceding quarter.

Morgan Stanley also picked up that inflation in packaged foods is expected to continue, while fresh pricing is 'normalising'.

Equal-weight and $16.50 target retained. Industry view: In-Line. No changes made to forecasts.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.22 Difference: $0.28
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.41, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COL as Add (1) -

Coles' March quarter update showed supermarkets like-for-like sales grew 4.2%, which was above Morgans' 3.5% forecast. Total sales rose 5.0% with growth accelerating slightly through the back end of the quarter after increasing 4.9% in the first eight weeks.

Management said supermarkets volumes have remained positive in the early part of the June Q with ongoing deflation in fresh produce and meat and a moderation in inflation in packaged categories. Price inflation reduced to 2.2% versus 3.0% in the Dec Q.

Cost inflation (eg, labour) remains a headwind but should be mitigated, Morgans suggests, by the ‘Simplify & Save to Invest’ program
designed to take -$1bn in costs out over four years.

Target rises to $18.95 from $18.70, Add retained.

Target price is $18.95 Current Price is $16.22 Difference: $2.73
If COL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.41, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Lighten (4) -

Coles' supermarket sales ex-tobacco rose 7% in the March Q, with sales of exclusive brands up 9%. Liquor sales fell -2% but account for less than 10% of earnings, Ord Minnett notes.

The broker expects consumer demand to pick up into FY25, driven by wage growth, tax cuts and potential RBA cuts. Coles' forward PE of 20x is down from 26x times in 2020, but the broker still sees the stock as slightly overvalued. Lighten and $15 target retained.

Ord Minnett does not believe the supermarkets are price-gouging, given the global phenomenon of food inflation. Food inflation is now retreating.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $16.22 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.41, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' March Q saw Curragh production impacted by cyclone-related events, and annual maintenance activities were advanced resulting in 20 days total plant downtime, Bell Potter notes.

At Buchanan, mining of lower yielding areas offset improved run-of-mine production rates. Group quarterly mining costs were US$126/t compared to the broker's forecast US$99/t.

Throughout 2024, Coronado should realise improved production volumes and subsequent cost benefits following the self-funded investment across its Australian and US operations, the broker suggests.

Bell Potter expects Coronado to generate improved free cash flow and shareholder returns going forward. Target falls to $1.60 from $1.65, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.355
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Coronado Global Resources reported a weak start to 2024, with the 1Q results lower than anticipated according to Macquarie.

Wet weather impacted on the Curragh production and yields for Buchanan, while mining costs came in at US$125.6/t, 14% above expectations.

Management reaffirmed FY24 volume guidance and the broker considers the cost guidance for the full year at US$95-US$99/t as optimistic and a potential risk to forecasts.

Realised prices rose 14% on the previous corresponding period, but were lower than forecast, notes Macquarie. Adjusting for the quarterly update, the analyst reduces the FY24 EPS forecast by -36% and -7% for FY25.

The target is lowered by -10% to $1.80. Overweight retained.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.555
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CRN as Add (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' March Q earnings once again materially disappointed market expectations, Morgans notes. 

Retained 2024 guidance implies Coronado will make a step-change in performance beginning now, although the broker warns costs again risk disappointing.

Nonetheless, Morgans believes the stock "looks interesting here" and that operating performance and earnings can't get any worse.

The rebuilding of market confidence in Coronado’s longer-term earnings potential and the narrowing of valuation discounts can now unfold slowly, the broker suggests, as the worst of quarterly cashflow performance now looks behind it.

Target falls to $1.70 from $1.75, Add retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.455
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRN as Accumulate (2) -

Coronado Global Resources' March Q result was softer for production and costs, Ord Minnett notes, with the quarter affected by Curragh’s rainfall, maintenance, and a lower yield at Buchanan.

The broker still expects Coronado to deliver 16mt production at a cost of US$106/t in 2024, assuming Mammoth Underground is permitted soon.

Hold retained as Ord Minnett balances Coronado’s discount to net asset value with near-term deliverability risks, the softer free cash flow forecast this year, and minimal total shareholder return based on the broker's fair value estimate.

Target falls to $1.30 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.055
If CRN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DRO as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

DroneShield has successfully completed a $100m fully underwritten placement, with the proceeds primarily to be invested in a build-up of its inventory to capitalise on robust global demand and a growing sales pipeline, Bell Potter notes.

The company reported a 2024 sales pipeline of $375m, with a further $145m in 2025 and beyond. The new framework agreement with NATO for the procurement of DroneShield products provides improved confidence in the pipeline, the broker suggests.

DroneShield is now well placed to capitalise on the growing demand for C-UAS solutions in response to current global tensions and the evolution of modern warfare. Bell Potter upgrades to Buy from Hold, retaining a $1.00 target.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.175
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DUG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has initiated coverage of Dug Technology with a Buy rating and $3,45 price target. As per today's report, the company is a provider of data processing and imaging services to clients in the Oil & Gas sector with a superior technology vis a vis competitors.

If the broker's projections prove accurate, Dug will grow revenues to over US$93m by FY27, implying a 4-year CAGR of 16%. Cash EBITDA margins (excluding capex) are projected to grow to 31% by FY27 from 18% in FY23.

The company is currently in the running for multiple potentially significant Middle Eastern contracts, which are not incorporated in these forecasts, explains the broker.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.71
If DUG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ECF as Hold (3) -

Elanor Commercial Property Fund continues with its leasing success, Ord Minnett notes, signing a Heads of Agreement at
Campus DXC and 19 Harris St, Pyrmont.

While the lease extension with DXC Technology was positive, the reduction of floorspace from Thomson Reuters in Pyrmont has put pressure on the Harris Property Trust’s interest cover ratio.

The broker understands the new lease terms with Thomson Reuters will be neutral to earnings (excluding the impact of incentives) given the strong positive rental reversion achieved.

Target rises to 76c from 75c, Hold retained.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.06
If ECF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems released a solid first quarter update, Bell Potter suggests, with revenue up 127% on the prior quarter. Cash flow was weaker, however the broker is not surprised considering the relatively high level of receipts during the Dec Q, the lumpy nature of cash receipts and the impact of seasonality.

The broker has reduced the number of shares on issue following lower than expected participation in the SPP. Revenue forecasts remain unchanged with a 2024 forecast largely covered by the current orderbook (barring any delays).

The resumption of US funding somewhat de-risks the conditional contracts to Ukraine, which in-turn increases confidence in Bell Potter's 2025 estimates. Buy and $2.20 target retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.44
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Buy (1) -

Post March Q results Citi continues to prefer Evolution Mining. The broker updates its model for the result and 2024 gold price forecasts of US$2,400/oz and long term real of US$1,850/oz, up from US$1,600/oz, which materially lifts earnings even against higher opex.

While Evolution has outperformed peer Northern Star ((NST)) by 10% over the past three months, against the broker's bullish copper view Citi thinks Evolution Mining can continue to outperform.

Target rises to $4.50 from $3.90, Buy retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.44
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.30, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVS as Buy (1) -

Envirosuite provided a March Q sales update with key figures of new annual recurring revenue of $1.8m and project sales of $1.1m. The
figures were slightly below what Bell Potter would have expected.

New ARR in three of the last four quarters has been consistent at $2.0m. Total ARR at the end of the quarter was $62.6m, which exceeded the broker's year-end forecast of $62.4m, though this was largely driven by the weaker AUD.

June Q guidance has fallen short of expectations, down year on year. With the stock trading materially below an unchanged 10c target, Buy retained.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.045
If EVS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FDV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Frontier Digital Ventures March Q activity report outlined a mixed quarter which reflected seasonality and the diversified nature of the portfolio across countries and regions. LatAm largely drove the result, Bell Potter notes.

At a group level, revenue was broadly flat while earnings declined slightly year on year due to the larger contribution from equity accounted Zameen in the March Q last year.

Frontier flagged investment in long-term opportunities to grow revenue and earnings in each region by capturing further value from its core classifieds model as well as increasing its exposure to ancillary and transaction revenues.

Bell Potter retains Speculative Buy and a 77c target.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.205
If FDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy (1) -

Buy rating and target price of $1.10 are retained with Shaw and Partners highlighting FireFly Metals is on track to report a significant
resource upgrade in the September quarter, having drilled a host of outstanding intersections with high grades and large widths during the March quarter.

The broker points out the company is well funded for future campaigns with pro-forma cash $54m following a recent capital raising.

Also, Shaw and Partners recently upgraded in-house copper price forecasts by 10% to US$4.50/lb in 2025 and by 20% to US$5.00/lb in 2026.

 FireFly Metals is seen as well positioned to benefit from stronger copper prices given the company is highly leveraged to resource growth. The company remains a key pick for the broker in 2024.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.26
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Citi has lifted its earnings forecast for IGO by 12% this year and cut -10% next year as it brings forward inventory sales. The broker
also pushes back first ore from CGP3 to September 2025 from June.

The lack of clarity on timing of a resolution on Kwinana remains an overhang, the broker suggests. So too are the JV challenges in presenting a unified Greenbushes outlook to the market, which makes conviction in Citi's net asset value of $7/sh for Greenbushes
challenging.

Neutral and $7.60 target retained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.91 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

IGO reported 3Q24 results which were impacted by the sell down of inventory and the return of Greenbushes to full operating capacity, Macquarie highlights.

Spodumene production met expectations and some 200kt of SC6 spodumene was sold to Tianqui, which was a boost to TLEA's cash flow and earnings positive, notes the analyst.

Nickel production was slightly better than expected (up 11%), however the division is still operating below par due to one-off disruptions and a tough nickel market.

Adjusting for the quarterly results and lower guidance, Macquarie reduces the FY24 EPS forecast by -14% and circa -2% for FY25.

The target price declines some -1% to $7.60 and a Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.91 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley found IGO's quarterly "weak", but Greenbushes expected to operate at full capacity is an undeniable positive. Kwinana, however, continues to disappoint, the broker adds.

Poduction at Nova was impacted by a mill shutdown due to bad weather and unplanned repairs. The broker continues to see risks on the horizon, and thus sticks with its negative view; Underweight.

Industry view is Attractive. Price target $5.90.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $7.91 Difference: minus $2.01 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

ImpediMed's March Q cashflow results showed net operating outflow was higher than expected but contained one-off severance payments to previous management, Morgans notes.

The installed base growth in the US of 13 units was lower than expected, however the broker is confident the new management team will convert the current pipeline into sales orders over the coming quarters.

Morgans has made a modest downgrade to forecasts. Management has provided cost base guidance for FY25 of -10% to -15% lower than FY24, which the broker expects can be achieved.

Target falls to 20.2c from 20.4c, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.118
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 140% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

The regulatory and funding frameworks underpinning ImpediMed’s US commercialisation pathway continue to strengthen, Ord Minnett notes, and new management is pulling the right levers to position the business for material growth from FY25 onwards.

With the positive impacts from realigning the sales team initiatives and critical mass reimbursement in their infancy, March Q US SOZO sales, while disappointing, were not unexpected.

Ord Minnett expects an acceleration in US installed base growth in the first half FY25, with payor updates and potential multi-site Integrated Delivery Network contracts looming as nearer term catalysts.

Speculative Buy and 16c target retained.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.076
If IPD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

Post the recent change in analyst coverage and the latest data filings for IPH, Macquarie retains an Overweight rating on the stock with a $7.35 target price.

The broker points to stable domestic market share since August 2023 at between 31.6% and 32.8%.

Recent growth has been impacted by a one-off US client that filed exclusively in Singapore, however, IPH has maintained single digit growth rates since 2014.

Management guided to lower gearing in the target range of 1.5x-2.0x compared to the December 2023 2.2x level.

The analyst's forecasts are around the middle of the longer term EPS compound average growth rate of 5% to 12.5% over 3 years.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: $1.06
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JMS as Outperform (1) -

Jupiter Mines reported a miss on 3Q24 results with EBITDA some -74% below Macquarie's expectations, due to lower prices and shipments.

Production at the Tshipi Borwa mine was -9% below the broker's forecast and down -26% on the previous quarter.

Manganese shipments came in flat on 2Q and there was no draw down in the inventory, due to soft manganese prices and a failure on the Saldana rail.

Adjusting for the results, Macquarie lowers the FY24 EPS forecast by -35%, but lifts FY25 EPS by 29% and FY26 EPS by 24%, reflecting the lag in manganese price rises from the outages at GEMCO.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to 35c from 30c, with a lift in the EV/EBITDA valuation to 4x from 3x.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.055
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Liontown Resources' March Q report highlighted key milestones relating to the Kathleen Valley lithium project. At quarter-end, the project’s development was 85% complete, Bell Potter notes, with commissioning of the dry plant commencing late in the quarter.

Kathleen Valley remains on budget and schedule for first production from mid-2024, and remains highly strategic in terms of its stage of
development, long mine life and location, the broker suggests.

Liontown has offtake contracts with top tier EV and battery makers, including Ford, LG Energy Solution and Tesla. Target falls to $1.85 from $1.90, Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.605
If LTR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Mirvac Group, earlier today, released its March quarter update and Citi analysts, in a quick response, observe management has maintained FY24 EPS guidance of 14.0-14.3c, in-line with consensus at 14.0c and Citi at 14.2c.

According to today's update, resi settlements and sales seem to be progressing towards target, but Citi still believes profits from the sale of a stake in the office development project in Sydney, 55 Pitt St, remain key to meeting FY24 guidance.

The broker observes Q3 sales saw a sharp improvement versus recent quarters with circa 450 sales (including 146 unconditional lots primarily in QLD/WA) versus 629 sales in 1H24.

The pickup in sales is primarily being driven by QLD/WA with stronger demand in those markets, the broker notes, as well as a pickup in apartment sales.

It is Citi's belief that the repositioning away from office into living and logistics sectors is likely to create a high-quality company in the future, but, for now, the likelihood is for pressure on earnings growth. Neutral. Target $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.24
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Hold (3) -

Megaport's March Q represented a fourth quarter of positive cash flow and eighth of positive earnings, Ord Minnett notes. Full year capex is expected to be about a third lower than last year despite the business being around 30% larger.

Management has upgraded its FY earnings guidance while leaving revenue and capex guidance unchanged.

The broker believes Megaport's returns on sales and marketing spend, as measured by a ratio of customer lifetime value to customer acquisition costs, are highly attractive.

Hold and $15 target retained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.50 Difference: $1.5
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Nickel Industries' shares have outperformed the nickel price by over 20% year to date. Citi lifts its target price to $1.10 from 80c on commencement of the buyback and funding/offtake as key catalysts for the stock to grind higher alongside the increasing production profile.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy on balance against Citi’s US$16k/t second half nickel price expectations in a surplus market.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.15
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Nickel Industries reported mixed first quarter results with a 2% beat on nickel metal production, versus a -59% miss on nickel matte production according to Macquarie.

The difference reflects the switch in production to NPI at Hengjaya as a result of falling margins for matte.

EBITDA of US$70.3m met expectations and came within the guidance range, however the RKEF earnings were -20% below estimates and -43% below the previous corresponding quarter, as a result of delays to the RKAB mining licence.

The company's cash position was better than anticipated at US$553.3m however that represents a -29% fall year-on-year.

Macquarie adjusts the EPS forecast by 4% for FY24 and the target lifts 2% to $1.20.

Overweight rating unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.25
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Overweight (1) -

Nickel Industries' quarterly update revealed disappointing production numbers but also better cost management, with realised nickel pricing in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast.

The broker does point out realised pricing missed market consensus by some -5-7%. No changes made to forecasts.

The 95c target is unchanged. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NOU as Speculative Buy (1) -

Noumi's revenue growth of 6% year on year in the March Q exceeded Bell Potter's forecast, with double digit growth in plant-based beverages the standout, with more modest growth in Dairy & Nutritionals.

In terms of outlook, Noumi continues to focus on margins in Dairy & Nutritionals and opportunities to grow plant-based revenues, remains cautious on consumer spending in Australia, and notes global dairy prices continue to be a headwind, the broker reports.

Bell Potter continues to see Noumi as a relative value play on the growth in alternative plant based proteins, where peer group multiples have continued to expand.

Speculative Buy and 17.5c target retained.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.06
If NOU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers the 3Q24 Origin Energy results as good with record production from APLNG and expectations of ongoing strength in annual ouput to the higher end of the 580-710PJ p.a. range.

Increasing solar use impacted on volumes with flat EM electricity results compared to a 2.8% growth in the overall NEM market.

The robust APLNG volumes should support dividend income for the company, notes the broker.

Origin Energy is tilting to more solar in the retail market, as well as selling more into the wholesale electricity market. The potential extension of Eraring is also a positive.

Macquarie makes some small EPS changes of -0.1% and 0.9% for FY24 and FY25.

The Outperform rating is unchanged and the target price lifts to $10.14 from $9.97 due to the higher production at APLNG.

Target price is $10.14 Current Price is $9.75 Difference: $0.39
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley describes Origin Energy's quarterly update as "pretty good", with both APLNG and Octopus putting in a positive performance.

Energy Markets volumes proved broadly in line with the broker's forecast. The broker points out Origin Energy will organise two investor days shortly; one specifically on Octopus (May 7) and a capital markets day on June 12.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $8.88 are retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $9.75 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PAC as Buy (1) -

Pacific Current Group's March Q update showed 1.1% growth in group funds under management, Ord Minnett notes, with market
moves offsetting some modest losses in Banner Oak.

Looking forward, the broker expects the transition to the GQG Partners ((GQG)) outsourcing arrangement to be completed by June and shareholder approval sought for the off-market buyback in July.

Buy and $12.50 target retained.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.05 Difference: $2.45
If PAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PBH as Buy (1) -

PointsBet Holdings' March Q update was positive, Ord Minnett suggests, highlighted by a 20% increase in Australian net win year on year in a tough wagering environment, resulting in 24% growth for group net wins.

Management expects to generate positive earnings for this half, as the business continues to benefit from its efficiency and productivity gains, as well as marketing discipline.

Ord Minnett has adjusted its valuation for the 39c cash distribution last month. Target falls to 70c from $1.05, Buy retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.19
If PBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RMY as Speculative Buy (1) -

RMA Global provided a March Q update which was headlined by an announced strategic reset, focused on targeting growth in US subscriptions via partnerships with brokerages and technology platforms versus selling into agents on an individual/office basis.

Bell Potter's positive view was looking toward what appeared to be likely and significant Fed rate cuts by end-2024, however, persistent inflation has aggressively changed the outlook from a cut in May/June and several thereafter to the possibility of no cuts until 2025.

The key driver for shareholder value in RMA Global remains the US market, the broker notes, where a decline in interest rates could potentially affect a tailwind for house sales and by extension activity on RMA’s platform and subscriptions.

Speculative Buy and 12c target retained.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.04
If RMY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

The shutdown of the Syama Sulphide plant reduced 1Q2024 volumes for Resolute Mining, with production coming in -9% below Macquarie's expectations, a -5% decline on the previous corresponding period.

The analyst highlights the greater weakness was in the Mako results due to lower grades, tonnes and recoveries, missing expectations by -17%.

Management retained full year 2024 guidance of 345-365koz.

Although Macquarie was disappointed by the softer-than-anticipated results, the target price of 60c is retained and the FY24 EPS forecast is lifted slightly, by 2%, due to lower expected costs.

Overweight.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.173
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Post the release of March Q results for SiteMinder, Citi noted underlying cash burn was as expected and the company is on track to becoming free cash flow positive. The Channels Plus product also continues to gain traction.

Management attributed a miss for revenue growth (-3% lower than the broker's estimate) to the timing of the Easter break impacting upon the global distribution system (GDS) growth. The broker has since lowered its revenue forecast but upgraded earnings.

Moderating subscription average revenue per user (ARPU) growth also weighed on revenues because of lower price increases this year. Citi sees potential for consensus revenue and earnings downgrades.

Operating cash flow was slightly better-than-expected due to lower administration/corporate costs, which was offset by higher capex related to higher product development spend.

Buy and $6.30 target retained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $0.59
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Sell (5) -

It was a solid operational quarter for Sandfire Resources with catch-up on zinc in the June Q the only detractor, Citi suggests. Group production guidance maintained with the June quarter to be zinc-heavy.

In terms of newsflow, a Matsa Reserve update is expected in the June Q, inclusive of San Pedro and Olivo.

Target rises to $7.90 from $7.30 on Citi's increased copper price forecasts. Sell retained.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: minus $1.65 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.78, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Sandfire Resources reported disappointing 3Q24 results according to Macquarie as copper production came in -10% below expectations with operating costs 25% above forecasts.

Motheo's volumes were the main source of operating weakness, while net debt moved higher by US$41m. The company also missed on consenus estimates, notes the analyst.

Management altered guidance slightly, a -3% decline in expected operating costs is forecast to be offset by 8% higher depreciation and amortisation charges. Production guidance is unchanged.

Looking at earnings forecasts, Macquarie adjusts EPS estimates by 1% and 23% for FY24 and FY25, respectively.

An Overweight rating is maintained and a higher valuation from improved spot copper prices lifts the target price 17% to $10.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: $0.95
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.78, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Sandfire Resources' quarterly update contained multiple negative surprises, mostly related to Matsa. Motheo's copper production and costs proved in line with forecasts, and the ramp-up remains on-track, the broker adds.

Management has left FY24 production guidance intact, but lifted projected costs. Drilling at Black Butte delivered positive news, as is the inferred resource at Motheo.

Combining it all together into a fresh modeling update, the broker's target has increased to $8.40 (was $7.65).

The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry view is Attractive. Forecasts for FY24 have fallen, further out estimates have been left unchanged.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.78, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Accumulate (2) -

Sandfire Resources reported a marginally softer March Q result than Ord Minnett expected, with lower zinc production at Matsa more than offsetting slightly better group level copper production.

Headline guidance remains unchanged, with deferral of zinc production into the June Q.

The broker expects momentum to continue as sentiment turns more positive towards copper and investors seek growth. Despite a seemingly full valuation, Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating. Target rises to $10.00 from $9.20.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: $0.45
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.78, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Star Entertainment is suffering from multiple "uncertainties" which need to be resolved according to Macquarie, including problems with the Star Sydney license, the AUSTRAC penalty, the debt refinancing for the Queen's Wharf Brisbane project, and management changes,.

The broker noted the recent trading update was substantially below expectations and has resulted in a a downward revision in forecast EBITDA earnings of -15% and -16%, for FY24 and FY25, respectively. These forecasts include a -$350m AUSTRAC fine.

The price target is lowered to 50c from 70c and the rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.095
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.64, suggesting upside of 60.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates STN as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has identified the design of a proposed first mining phase bulk sample pit and associated pilot plant along with the pre-feasibility study on the full-scale project as highlights of the quarterly update released by Saturn Metals.

Buy rating and target price of 44c are retained with the broker commenting a heap leach operation at the company's Apollo Hill project could become a centralised processing hub for a camp-scale gold province in the region.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.185
If STN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Outperform (1) -

For 1Q2024 Syrah Resources reported 11.0kt of graphite production, some -54% below expectations for Macquarie, and a -45% decline on the previous corresponding quarter, as demand remained slow.

The company's third party sales of 20kt were -35% below the broker's estimate, but 14% above the previous year due to a reduction in inventory.

Pricing rose 29% on the previous year and was in line with expectations, according to the analyst.

Ex-China the company has completed the construction of the 11.25kt p.a. AAM Vidalia facility and the ramp up is in place.

Adjusting for the recent capital raising and the results, the FY24 EPS forecast declines by -5%.

Overweight rating and 90c target unchanged.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.375
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.86, suggesting upside of 56.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SYR as Buy (1) -

Syrah Resources' March quarter production report showed production at Balama below Shaw and Partners' forecast, though sales were ahead and pricing was stronger, the broker reports.

Prices and demand for synthetic and natural graphite in China remain under pressure, according to management at the firm.

Also, the company continues to evaluate funding options for the 45ktpa Vidalia Further Expansion project, points out the broker, including commercial bank funding and equity partnerships and finalisation of the Department of Energy’s US$350m loan.

Buy rating retained alongside a price target of $1.10. No changes made to forecasts.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.575
If SYR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.86, suggesting upside of 56.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

Tabcorp Holdings remains the top investment stock in the ex100 gaming sector according to Macquarie and the analyst considers that the earnings outlook for the business is yet to be fully priced into the shares.

An improvement in the domestic wagering market is forecast in the 1H25. The broker highlights Tabcorp Holdings has a fixed cost advantage and is expected to retain market share.

Looking at the Sky Racing Fee rebates, Macquarie anticipates Tabcorp Holdings can soften the impact with other income streams from media rights domestically and internationally.

The analyst forecasts a 3-year 6% compound growth rate in EBITDA to FY26 with the Victorian Wagering licence to provide the biggest earnings lift.

An Overweight rating and $1.00 target price are maintained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.265
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.97, suggesting upside of 36.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLX as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Following an "outstanding" March Q of revenue growth, Bell Potter upgrades its FY24 revenue forecast by 7% to 5% above the top end of the guidance range.

The broker's FY25 revenue forecast is also upgraded following a revision of key assumptions on pricing for Illuccix.

The short term outlook for revenue growth from the diagnostic assets remains attractive, Bell Potter suggests, nevertheless the major inflection points for TLX591 in the treatment of prostate cancer are close and carry significant clinical risk.

The broker expects a readout on the important efficacy measure of progression free survival within the next 2-3 months. A poor clinical readout has the potential to materially impact the share price and, accordingly, Bell Potter downgrades to Hold from Buy.

Target unchanged at $14.50.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $15.05 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TSK as Hold (3) -

Task Group released a strong final quarter update for FY24, Bell Potter suggests. The result underpins the appeal for PAR Technology to acquire 100% of Task shares.

Task shareholders can retain exposure to Task by taking scrip for up to 50% of the offer, the broker notes.

Bell Potter has assumed 25% take up of scrip in the offer, which includes PAR stock. The broker's 85c target is based on the last PAR trading price and the AUD.

Hold retained.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.025
If TSK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Vicinity Centres, earlier today, released its March quarter update and Citi analysts spotted 1.6% growth in sales during the quarter, assisted by an earlier Easter weekend.

According to the broker, key transactions during the period included the purchase of the 49% stake in Chatswood Chase and commencement of the redevelopment.

Although rental growth during the development period results in lower overall FFO growth, Citi believes this should assist longer-term growth post development and the commencement of a repositioned dominant centre in a strong location.

Guidance remains intact with FY24 FFO and AFFO per security expected to be around the top end of the 14.1–14.5 cents and 11.8–12.2 cents ranges, respectively.

Target $2.10. Neutral.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.175
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VEE as Add (1) -

After months of collaborative design work and testing, Veem has formally accepted the Sharrow propeller design for inboard vessels.

Compared to standard propellers, these propellers were able to show a dramatic reduction in noise and vibration, better fuel efficiency, improved handling, and excellent reverse thrust, Morgans notes.

The total addressable market for inboard propellers is estimated at US$2.6bn, of which US$338m pa is new builds. The broker believes the next phase of commercialisation of ‘Sharrow by Veem’ propellers will deliver a strong uplift in Veem’s earnings growth potential over the long term.

Target rises to $2.25 from $1.50, Add retained.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.32
If VEE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VUK as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett recommends shareholders vote in favour of Nationwide Building Society's takeover offer for Virgin Money UK. Payment of the dividend is part of Virgin's dividend distribution schedule and is not conditional of the takeover becoming effective.

Virgin Money is the UK's sixth largest bank, Ord Minnett notes, and NBS is the world's largest building society, hence the acquisition will create the UK's second-largest mortgage provider behind Lloyds.

Hold and $4.25 target retained.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.12
If VUK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Woolworths Group has, today, announced the sale of -5.0% of its 9.1% shareholding in former spin-off Endeavour Group ((EDV)), raising $468m.

UBS analysts, in an initial response, point out proceeds will be used to return capital to shareholders, with an update to be provided at the FY24 result.

The broker adds Woolworths has $760m in franking credits, so may consider a special dividend or on-market buyback.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $31.90 Difference: $1.6
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.62, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources