Australian Broker Call
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May 24, 2023
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CAT - | Catapult International | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
NAM - | Namoi Cotton | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
QAN - | Qantas Airways | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
TNE - | TechnologyOne | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
Overnight Price: $1.02
Citi rates 29M as Neutral/High Risk (3) -
While the outlook for the re-start of Capricorn Copper is unchanged, Citi notes the medium-term outlook for Golden Grove is below expectations, with a number of factors cited including reserve and cut-off grade assumptions, development rates, and mine sequencing.
29Metals has explained the metal is just deferred past 2027, which the broker finds not entirely convincing. Citi suggests it is hard for the market to ascribe value to exploration upside and the "copper assets are scarce" pitch.
Neutral (High Risk) retained. Target is reduced to $1.10 from $1.20.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.08
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 38.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -22.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates 29M as Neutral (3) -
29Metals has published a recovery plan for Capricorn Copper, provided guidance for Golden Grove, and reinstated 2023 guidance and March-quarter guidance for 2024.
The company has advised Capricorn's recovery is almost complete but return to full production is likely to be longer than Macquarie had forecast.
The outlook for Golden Grove was a tad more pleasing, the company expecting an increase in zinc production and copper out to 2027, thanks largely to the Xantho ramp up. Having previously trimmed forecasts for Golden Grove, the broker brings them back into line with guidance. Capital expenditure guidance disappointed.
29Metals finished the March quarter with net debt of -$35m and the company has a $40m revolving facility, and the broker spies potential pressure on the balance sheet later this year. EPS forecasts fall -54% for 2026 and -24% for 2027.
Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $1 from $1.20 (the last entry in the FNArena database in April).
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 38.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 26.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -22.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -
As recovery planning at Capricorn Copper is now largely complete (in line with Morgan Stanley), 29Metals provided updated guidance for FY23.
2023 copper and silver production guidance were in line and a -40% miss, respectively, compared to the broker's forecasts, while 1Q FY24 copper production guidance was significantly weaker than expected.
The Equal-weight rating and $1.15 target are unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.13
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 38.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -22.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CAT CATAPULT GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $0.80
Bell Potter rates CAT as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
Catapult International posted a FY23 result that was much better than Bell Potter expected. No specific guidance was provided although the company expects to be positive in terms of free cash flow in FY24 without the need to raise equity.
The broker takes a conservative stance and downgrades FY24 and FY25 revenue forecasts by -3% and -4%, respectively. EBITDA forecasts are upgraded from breakeven to US$8.7m in FY24.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target lifted to $1.00 from $0.90.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.205
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.16 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.06 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CCX CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
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Overnight Price: $0.40
Bell Potter rates CCX as Hold (3) -
In the second half to date sales for City Chic Collective are down -26%. Nevertheless, the company has reiterated expectations for positive cash flow by the end of FY23.
Bell Potter notes the balance sheet is supported beyond the second half of FY24 with current covenant waivers extended until the first quarter of FY25 on a lower facility.
The broker also points out, while showing some improvement in April and May, trading has largely been driven by promotional activity.
Target is reduced to $0.42 from $0.53 and Bell Potter does not expect underlying conditions will improve in the next six months. Hold maintained.
Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.02
If CCX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.60 cents and EPS of minus 6.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $26.54
Bell Potter rates IEL as Hold (3) -
IDP Education has acquired a UK-based technology company called The Ambassador Platform. This is used by more than 150 educational institutions across five continents. Consideration will be up to -GBP9m which will be funded through existing cash.
Bell Potter updates forecasts to allow for the acquisition and assesses it is unlikely to have a material financial impact. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $30.00 from $30.45.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.54 Difference: $3.46
If IEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.40, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 54.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.7, implying annual growth of 51.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 48.30 cents and EPS of 69.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 26.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.82
Macquarie rates LLC as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie addresses media speculation that Lend Lease is negotiating to sell part of its $1.7bn communities business.
The broker expects a deal could prove 45% accretive to net core profit after tax in FY24 but given it would be a one-off, a rerate is unprobable.
Macquarie says a 50% selldown could deliver 10% to 13% on the company's FY24 development ROIC target (the broker currently estimates 9.3%), and a return on equity target of 8% to 10% (currently estimate 8.1%), which could set a new target base for the company going forward.
The broker says the big plus is that it would allow the company to meet its $12bn deployment targets by FY26. Meanwhile, gearing should be on the decline after Lendlease Group's recent sale of a stake in its military housing asset-management business.
Neutral rating and $8.03 target price retained.
Target price is $8.03 Current Price is $7.82 Difference: $0.21
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.54, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 36.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 81.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.5, implying annual growth of 90.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.54
Ord Minnett rates MCP as Hold (3) -
McPherson's has announced a revenue decline of -0.7% and profit decline of -32% for the ten months to April and expects further declines for the rest of FY23.
Sales declines for the company’s Multix and A'kin brands, which are cycling high comparable FY22 revenue, offset positive sales growth across the company’s Essential Beauty brands and Fusion products, Ord Minnett notes.
Ongoing supply chain disruptions also impacted the availability of Dr LeWinn's products, further impacting sales.
The broker maintains Hold given the lower earnings base and risks to consumer spending. McPherson's valuation is supported by a solid balance sheet and around a 6% fully franked dividend yield, the broker surmises. Target falls to 60c from 80c.
Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.065
If MCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.02
Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy (1) -
Bauxite Hills was earnings (EBITDA) positive in April, and at current pricing, Metro Mining is expected to generate an around $14/t site earnings margin.
Shaw and Partners gleans this detail from management's updated investor presentation following the recent final investment decision (FID).
Also, shipment guidance of 4.5-5Mt for 2023 suggests to the analyst 2023 earnings of around $63-70m, which is ahead of the broker's $52m forecast.
The Buy rating and 6c target are maintained.
Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.041
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 216% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.41
Morgans rates NAM as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
FY23 earnings (EBITDA) of $18.3m for Namoi Cotton beat recently downgraded guidance of $15-17m. However, Morgans moves to a Hold rating from Buy as earnings are set to decline in FY24 and the share price lacks near-term catalysts.
The analyst feels listed agricultural stocks in general may struggle over the coming months as the Bureau of Metereology is forecasting dry conditions.
Nonetheless, Namoi Cotton should benefit from well above average cotton crops over the next couple of years, as there is currently ample water in key dams and storages.
The target declines to 45c from 57c.
Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.04
If NAM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in February.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.70 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.90 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.33
Ord Minnett rates NHC as Hold (3) -
New Hope Corp's third quarter earnings were solid, Ord Minnett notes, up 25% year on year despite a -39% decline in average benchmark thermal coal prices over the same period, due to higher volumes at Bengalla.
Higher volumes also led to lower unit cash costs. Ord Minnett expects New Hope to finish FY23 strongly, given improved costs and likely drier weather at Bengalla.
Hold retained, target falls to $6.10 from $6.30 on lower coal prices.
Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.77
If NHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.64, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 61.20 cents and EPS of 155.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.8, implying annual growth of 23.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 15.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 97.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.0, implying annual growth of -19.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $6.36
Citi rates QAN as Neutral (3) -
Citi found the update from Qantas Airways uneventful, with pre-tax profit guidance in line with expectations. The broker will await the strategy briefing to find out whether a "believable story" can be presented for earnings to remain structurally higher.
Following the update, Citi revises net profit estimates up by 3-4% for FY23-25. Target rises to $6.90 from $6.70 and a Neutral rating is maintained.
Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $0.54
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 93.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -
Qantas Airways issued a solid update, according to Morgan Stanley, which came in ahead of consensus expectations and pointed to ongoing favourable conditions.
Net debt guidance for FY23 of between $2.7bn and $2.9bn was around -$1bn below the analyst's forecast, while $100m was added to the existing $500m buyback, which is now 78% complete.
Management expects domestic capacity will be 104% of pre-covid levels by end of the 2H, while International capacity will grow to more than 80%.
The Overweight rating and $9.00 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-line.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $2.64
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 114.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates QAN as Add (1) -
Morgans increases its profit (NPBT) forecasts for Qantas Airways following a trading update and an increase in underlying profit guidance to a level 2% above the consensus forecast.
The update showed record free cash flows and a lower net debt position than the broker had forecast.
Management expects travel demand will remain strong into FY24. To reflect management's confidence in the outlook, according to the analyst, the on-market share buyback was raised to $600m from $500m.
The target rises to $8.50 from $8.30. Morgans points out shares continue to trade at a material discount to pre-covid multiples. Add.
Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $2.14
If QAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates QAN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
The upbeat trading update from Qantas Airways has caused UBS to re-evaluate its valuation. The broker still envisages risks around the impact of the upcoming capex cycle and the strength fo demand heading into 2024.
Yet, at the current share price the effects are considered sufficiently priced. The broker does point out the market has shown diminished sensitivity to the upgrades from the airline over the past year as the focus moves to the outlook for FY24.
UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $7.95 from $7.60.
Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $1.59
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $4.17
Citi rates RWC as Neutral (3) -
Citi interprets the result from Lowe's to signal that Reliance Worldwide is benefiting from the retailer taking share in the SME Pro channel. The broker had been confused as to how Reliance Worldwide's third quarter was so strong in a declining market.
The outlook now implies the declines in same-store sales growth will remain steady or improve from here on. Neutral rating and $4.10 target maintained.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.48 cents and EPS of 28.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.18 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 5.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.45
Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie addresses media speculation that Stockland is in negotiations with Lendlease Group ((LLC)) to buy a stake in the latter's Communities business, and suspects the deal will be struck by its new MPC joint venture.
The broker forecasts the deal would be 4% accretive to Stockland's funds from operation, and that it would bring scale to the joint venture.
Macquarie expects Stockland's balance sheet gearing will rise, possibly to 27.3%, as it tips in its share to the JV.
Meanwhile, the broker expects the company will be looking for more partnerships to help it leverage third party capital.
Neutral rating and $4.49 target price retained.
Target price is $4.49 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $0.04
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.10 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of -44.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of -2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.13
Morgan Stanley rates TAH as Overweight (1) -
The Victorian license is a key upcoming catalyst for Tabcorp Holdings, in Morgan Stanley's opinion. The current licence expires in August 2024 and the award of the new license is expected in mid-2023.
Should the company keep its licence, the broker forecasts an around 25% increase to its current FY25 earnings (EBITDA) forecast.
Earnings are expected to remain relatively unchanged, in the event the licence is lost, as the company would benefit from fee structure changes. Cash revenues would be lost but digital revenues gained.
The Overweight rating and $1.30 target are unchanged. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.17
If TAH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.14, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.10 cents and EPS of 3.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of -98.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.38 cents and EPS of 4.12 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of 10.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.75
Bell Potter rates TNE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
TechnologyOne posted a strong first half result with both revenue and pre-tax profit ahead of Bell Potter's forecast. The key surprise was 40% growth in SaaS recurring revenue, to $316.3m.
FY23 guidance is for 10-15% growth in pre-tax profit, consistent with expectations. The broker updates the valuation which results in a slight increase to the target, to $17.50 from $17.00, while the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.
Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: $1.75
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 37.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TNE as Neutral (3) -
TechnologyOne's FY23 interim result outpaced consensus and Macquarie's forecasts, despite including one-off earnings write-backs; and management guided to FY23 SaaS annual recurring revenue guidance of more than 40%.
FY23 profit-before-tax growth guidance of 10% to 15% suggests FY23 margin contraction, says Macquarie, but the broker believes guidance to be conservative and management reaffirmed medium-term margin guidance.
EPS forecasts for FY23 rise 3% to reflect lower annual licence fees.
Neutral rating retained given the strong share price. Target price rises 19% to $15.50 from $13.
Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 31.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.30 cents and EPS of 32.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TNE as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley remains Equal-weight due to TechnologyOne's full valuation, despite robust 1H results in the face of lower IT spending.
The results were broadly in line with the broker's expectation. Net revenue retention (NRR) of 119% grew by 3% from FY22, while Enterprise customers grew by 12%.
Management is on track to deliver 10-15% earnings growth in FY23, complemented by SaaS annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of over 40% and contractual inflation pass-through, observes the analyst.
The target rises to $13.00 from $12.50. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: minus $2.75 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.70 cents and EPS of 31.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.80 cents and EPS of 36.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TNE as Hold (3) -
Morgans assesses a good result from TechnologyOne, which was in line with the broker's and consensus expectations. Guidance for 10-15% profit growth also matched existing forecasts.
The broker highlights a strong performance from all verticals and the UK operations (off a small base).
Mangement noted the business is on-track to surpass its FY26 ARR target of $500m.
The analyst feels the largely complete transition to SaaS in A&NZ is a game changer by making the value of the company's solution way more compelling for the end customer.
While Morgans makes immaterial forecast changes, the target rises to $15 from $13.50 on a material uplift for peer multiples.
Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.92 cents and EPS of 31.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.31 cents and EPS of 35.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TNE as Sell (5) -
TechnologyOne's first half profit rose 24% year on year to a record level, as Ord Minnett expected given the acceleration of legacy customers to cloud-based SaaS. This resulted in cloud-based revenue rising 40% while legacy licence revenue declined -46%.
The move to cloud-based SaaS contracts should further strengthen TechnologyOne's competitive advantage, the broker suggests, through the deployment of additional capabilities and the opportunity to more easily up-sell complementary software modules.
Yet on Ord Minnett's forecasts, the stock is some 40% overvalued against a fair value estimate of $11.20, unchanged. Sell retained.
Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: minus $4.55 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 27.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 33.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TNE as Neutral (3) -
UBS welcomes the strong first half result from TechnologyOne and believes FY23 pre-tax guidance for growth of 10-15% is conservative, expecting 17%.
Moreover, the target of $500m in recurring revenue by FY26 also seems conservative and the broker expects this will be met in FY25.
UBS considers the stock high quality, supported by the structural changes in cloud expenditure as well as its product innovation.
Still, cognisant of the strong growth that is already factored into the stock, the broker retains a Neutral rating, raising the target to $16.00 from $14.45.
Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: $0.25
If TNE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $16.40
Citi rates WOR as Buy (1) -
Worley has successfully refinanced its syndicated facility with two term loans amounting to US$1.2bn. Citi believes this should remove concerns about the ability to refinance and build management's credibility with equity investors.
The broker is also encouraged by a change in psychology in the LNG industry whereby the company has won a reimbursable, i.e. not fixed price, EPC contract which is estimated to be more than US$1bn in value.
The Buy rating and $17.50 target are retained.
Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $16.40 Difference: $1.1
If WOR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.48, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 62.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of 86.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 49.60 cents and EPS of 76.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.5, implying annual growth of 18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $72.96
UBS rates WTC as Buy (1) -
UBS estimates customs is generating around $70m in revenue for WiseTech Global and is likely to grow at a rate of 50% to $365m in FY27, then to $2bn longer term, reaching 24% penetration of the expected market.
The broker's analysis shows US$560m of government customs revenue is collected across the company's global footprint.
The broker substantially upgrades FY24-27 estimates for revenue and EBITDA and reiterates a Buy rating. Target rises to $85.90 from $67.30.
Target price is $85.90 Current Price is $72.96 Difference: $12.94
If WTC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $71.17, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.8, implying annual growth of 20.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 101.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.5, implying annual growth of 33.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 76.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
29M | 29Metals | $0.83 | Citi | 1.10 | 1.20 | -8.33% |
Macquarie | 1.00 | 1.20 | -16.67% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 1.15 | 1.30 | -11.54% | |||
CAT | Catapult International | $0.81 | Bell Potter | 1.00 | 0.90 | 11.11% |
CCX | City Chic Collective | $0.41 | Bell Potter | 0.42 | 0.53 | -20.75% |
IEL | IDP Education | $26.00 | Bell Potter | 30.00 | 30.45 | -1.48% |
MCP | McPherson's | $0.56 | Ord Minnett | 0.60 | 0.80 | -25.00% |
NAM | Namoi Cotton | $0.39 | Morgans | 0.45 | 0.57 | -21.05% |
NHC | New Hope | $5.25 | Ord Minnett | 6.10 | 6.30 | -3.17% |
QAN | Qantas Airways | $6.47 | Citi | 6.90 | 6.70 | 2.99% |
Morgans | 8.50 | 8.35 | 1.80% | |||
UBS | 7.95 | 7.60 | 4.61% | |||
TNE | TechnologyOne | $15.90 | Bell Potter | 17.50 | 17.00 | 2.94% |
Macquarie | 15.50 | 13.00 | 19.23% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 13.00 | 12.50 | 4.00% | |||
Morgans | 15.00 | 13.50 | 11.11% | |||
UBS | 16.00 | 14.45 | 10.73% | |||
WTC | WiseTech Global | $72.95 | UBS | 85.90 | 67.30 | 27.64% |
Summaries
29M | 29Metals | Neutral/High Risk - Citi | Overnight Price $1.02 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.02 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.02 | ||
CAT | Catapult International | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $0.80 |
CCX | City Chic Collective | Hold - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $0.40 |
IEL | IDP Education | Hold - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $26.54 |
LLC | Lendlease Group | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.82 |
MCP | McPherson's | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.54 |
MMI | Metro Mining | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.02 |
NAM | Namoi Cotton | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.41 |
NHC | New Hope | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.33 |
QAN | Qantas Airways | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $6.36 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.36 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.36 | ||
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $6.36 | ||
RWC | Reliance Worldwide | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.17 |
SGP | Stockland | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.45 |
TAH | Tabcorp Holdings | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.13 |
TNE | TechnologyOne | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $15.75 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $15.75 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $15.75 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $15.75 | ||
Sell - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $15.75 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $15.75 | ||
WOR | Worley | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $16.40 |
WTC | WiseTech Global | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $72.96 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 8 |
3. Hold | 17 |
5. Sell | 1 |
Wednesday 24 May 2023
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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