Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 29M as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Ord Minnett downgrades 29Metals to Sell from Hold with a higher target of 40c from 30c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: minus $0.145 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting downside of -33.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AAI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Alcoa is Buy rated with a new target of $63.50 from $63.

Target price is $63.50 Current Price is $50.35 Difference: $13.15
If AAI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BGL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Bellevue Gold is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a higher target price of $1.40 from $1.10.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.29
If BGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating on BHP with a higher target of $45 from $42.50.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $41.91 Difference: $3.09
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.07, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

Citi expects Brent crude oil to trough at US$60-62/bbl into 2026 as OPEC Plus unwinds a further -1.6mbpd of voluntary cuts and non-OPEC supply expands, though China’s stockpiling and OECD inventory builds provide some support.

The broker lifts its 2026 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) gas price forecast by around 8% to US$10.8/mmbtu, while noting weak Asian demand limits longer-term gains. Seasonal volatility is seen as a risk, given below-average EU storage and potential weather-related outages.

Citi keeps its target prices unchanged across coverage of the Exploration and Production sector and retains Santos and Karoon Energy as top picks.

For Beach Energy, the $1.05 target and Sell rating are maintained.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: minus $0.135 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

A Buy rating on Capricorn Metals is retained with an upgraded target price of $19 from $11.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $12.86 Difference: $6.14
If CMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.03, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Ord Minnett downgrades Capstone Copper to Hold from Buy. Target price is raised to $13 from $12.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.60 Difference: $0.4
If CSC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.15, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

CSL has today announced CFO Joy Linton will step down on October 7, with Chief Strategy Officer Ken Lim to succeed her. A transition period will support the handover.

Citi highlights the CFO succession has been a recurring investor query, and notes such changes are uncommon ahead of major restructures, with CSL’s proposed Seqirus spin-off expected in 2H FY26.

The broker assumes Mr Lim has been closely involved in the spin-off decision given his strategy role and sees the change as an opportunity to refresh goals and adopt a higher-level strategy over time.

A Capital Markets Day is scheduled for early November.

Target $265. Buy.

Target price is $265.00 Current Price is $199.00 Difference: $66
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $276.82, suggesting upside of 39.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CWP as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights tailwinds for Cedar Woods Properties from the 5% expanded First Home Guarantee from October 1 and renewed housing price growth in Western Australia amid supply shortage.

The broker believes the company's 10% net profit growth guidance for FY26 looks conservative, and is projecting 14.5% growth on a mix of price and volume growth.

No change to forecasts.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $8.25.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.71 Difference: $0.54
If CWP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DRR as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Deterra Royalties is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a higher target of $4.50 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.51
If DRR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DYL as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Deep Yellow with a Hold rating and $1.90 target price.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If DYL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EMR as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Emerald Resources is downgraded to Lighten from Hold. Target price is raised to $4.30 from $3.65.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If EMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems' new 2025 revenue guidance of $115-125m fell short of Bell Potter's expectation for $166m. The contract backlog was reported at $299m as of September 29.

The broker attributes the weaker outlook to delayed contract signings, shifting revenue into 2026, while noting potential upside of $25m in 2025 if orders are executed promptly. 2025 revenue of $46m has been deferred into 2026 and 2027.

An additional $20m opportunity for remote weapon stations (RWS) delivery within six months is also noted by the analysts.

Bell Potter raises its target price to $11.00 from $5.70 on a higher assumed 2026 earnings multiple, reflecting greater confidence in longer term revenue growth. The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.45 Difference: $1.55
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOS as Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems has issued FY25 revenue guidance in the range of $115-125m, falling -24.6% short of Ord Minnett's forecast, yet shares rose 13% as the market focused on future revenue multiples, explains the broker.

The analyst explains defence technology companies are increasingly being valued this way, both listed and unlisted. The broker's valuation has shifted from discounted cash flow (DCF) to sum-of-the-parts (SOTP).

Ord Minnett explains this places a $725m valuation on remote weapon stations, $833m on high-energy laser weapons, and $600m on space control, for a total of $2.16bn or $11.18 per share.

The broker cites strong geopolitical tailwinds and raises its target price to $11.18 from $4.70, downgrading to a Speculative Buy rating from Buy.

Target price is $11.18 Current Price is $9.45 Difference: $1.73
If EOS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ERD as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners lifted the target price for Eroad on increased confidence around the eRUC (electronic road user charging) opportunity.

Key investor concerns include the potential for mobile phones being used as a substitute, the ability to deliver a device for light vehicles and potential delays.

However, the broker has a different view, believing NZ’s strong compliance culture, government reliance on RUC revenues, and impracticality of phone-only solutions limit substitution risk.

Additionally, the broker notes recent product launches and ecosystem readiness reinforce confidence in the company’s ability to execute.

Buy, High Risk. Target rises to $3.20 from $2.70.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.94
If ERD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FFM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

No change to Buy rating for FireFly Metals. Target price moves to $1.65 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.29
If FFM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Ord Minnett rates Fortescue as Accumulate with an unchanged target of $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.73 Difference: $1.27
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.21, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GGP as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Ord Minnett rates Greatland Resources as Buy with a higher target of $12 from $10.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: $4.59
If GGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.27, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

IGO Ltd is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target lifts to $5.50 from $5.25.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.41
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Brent crude oil to trough at US$60-62/bbl into 2026 as OPEC Plus unwinds a further -1.6mbpd of voluntary cuts and non-OPEC supply expands, though China’s stockpiling and OECD inventory builds provide some support.

The broker lifts its 2026 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) gas price forecast by around 8% to US$10.8/mmbtu, while noting weak Asian demand limits longer-term gains. Seasonal volatility is seen as a risk, given below-average EU storage and potential weather-related outages.

Citi keeps its target prices unchanged across coverage of the Exploration and Production sector, and retains Santos and Karoon Energy as top picks.

For Karoon Energy, the $2.4 target and Buy rating are maintained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.695
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 30.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LTR as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Liontown Resources continues to be Sell rated with an unchanged 70c target price.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.73, suggesting downside of -25.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MI6 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Minerals 260 trimmed by -4.7% for FY26 and by -5% for FY27.

Target rises to 45c from 30c. Buy maintained.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.21
If MI6 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.39, suggesting upside of 56.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers the completion of the Onslow haul road to facilitate haulage at normal speeds as a positive for Mineral Resources.

A record 3.2mt was shipped from Onslow in August despite the works. The analyst flags potential for consensus upgrades to volume forecasts from FY27 onwards.

Morgan Stanley's estimates currently sit around 5% ahead of nameplate with possible upside to circa 10% above nameplate.

Overweight. Target remains at $41.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $41.50 Current Price is $40.96 Difference: $0.54
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.62, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Mineral Resources lifted by 77% for FY26 and by 59% for FY27.

Target rises to $46 from $40. Accumulate maintained.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $40.96 Difference: $5.04
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.62, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Newmont lifted by 12% for FY25 and by 44% for FY26.

Target rises to $150 from $115. Buy maintained.

Target price is $150.00 Current Price is $132.30 Difference: $17.7
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $128.00, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Nickel Industries cut by -69% for FY25 and by -22% for FY26.

Target trimmed to $1.70 from $1.80. Buy maintained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.98
If NIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 136% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights in the latest offering on NextDC that the data centre operator is positioned to lift its equity value "meaningfully" over the next two to three years.

Boosted by major new data centre openings and new contracted utilisation wins, the analyst expects a billing ramp of 57MW in FY26 and 68MW in FY27, which poses possible upgrades in consensus earnings (EBITDA) estimates.

Morgan Stanley recently lifted its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 2%-15% for FY26-FY28. The company has also announced it is working with advisors to achieve capital partners for the S4 and S7 campuses, which represent 850MW of capacity.

Demand for data centre capacity will be underpinned by ongoing growth in the volume of data, migration to the cloud, and adoption of AI-related technologies.

No change to Overweight rating and $20.50 target. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $17.09 Difference: $3.41
If NXT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OBM as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Ora Banda Mining lifted by 35% for FY26 and by 58% for FY27.

Target rises to $1.35 from $1.20. Accumulate retained.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.2
If OBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDI as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Predictive Discovery lifted by 30% for FY26 but trimmed by -3.9% for FY27.

Target price 50c. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.09
If PDI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Pilbara Minerals lifted by 84% for FY27. Target price $1.35. Sell maintained.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: minus $1.07 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PRU as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Perseus Mining lifted by 10% for FY27.

Target price $4.60. Hold rating.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If PRU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Rio Tinto lifted by 10% for FY25 and by 23% for FY26.

Target rises to $127 from $121. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $127.00 Current Price is $121.25 Difference: $5.75
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $118.00, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Regis Resources lifted by 40% for FY26 and by 67% for FY27.

Target rises to $4.50 from $3.10. Sell maintained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $6.03 Difference: minus $1.53 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.04, suggesting downside of -15.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RSG as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Resolute Mining lifted by 20% for FY26 and by 53% for FY27.

Target rises to $1.10 from $0.80. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.11
If RSG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for South32 lifted by 41% for FY26 but trimmed by -4% for FY27.

Target rises to $4.00 from $3.95. Buy retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $1.34
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Brent crude oil to trough at US$60-62/bbl into 2026 as OPEC Plus unwinds a further -1.6mbpd of voluntary cuts and non-OPEC supply expands, though China’s stockpiling and OECD inventory builds provide some support.

The broker lifts its 2026 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) gas price forecast by around 8% to US$10.8/mmbtu, while noting weak Asian demand limits longer-term gains. Seasonal volatility is seen as a risk, given below-average EU storage and potential weather-related outages.

Citi keeps its target prices unchanged across coverage of the Exploration and Production sector, and retains Santos and Karoon Energy as top picks.

For Santos, the $7.50 target and Buy rating are maintained.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $0.6
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.80, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WAF as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for West African Resources lifted by 11% for FY25 and by 31% for FY26.

No change to $3.40 target price. Buy maintained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.36
If WAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects Brent crude oil to trough at US$60-62/bbl into 2026 as OPEC Plus unwinds a further -1.6mbpd of voluntary cuts and non-OPEC supply expands, though China’s stockpiling and OECD inventory builds provide some support.

The broker lifts its 2026 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) gas price forecast by around 8% to US$10.8/mmbtu, while noting weak Asian demand limits longer-term gains. Seasonal volatility is seen as a risk, given below-average EU storage and potential weather-related outages.

Citi keeps its target prices unchanged across coverage of the Exploration and Production sector, and retains Santos and Karoon Energy as top picks.

For Woodside Energy, the $25.50 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $23.42 Difference: $2.08
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.80, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources