Australian Broker Call
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December 16, 2022
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BOQ - | Bank of Queensland | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
PLS - | Pilbara Minerals | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
VVA - | Viva Leisure | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
APM APM HUMAN SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Healthcare
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Overnight Price: $2.45
Credit Suisse rates APM as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse believes the acquisition of NDIS provider Everyday Independence for $52.5m in cash is complementary to Early Start Australia, which is already a part of APM Human Services International.
Everyday Independence has 30 locations across Australia and more than 450 therapists, while Early Start provides a wide range of therapies and services to people of all ages living with disabilities, explains the analyst.
The broker highlights a key opportunity for APM to improve productivity (for Everday),which been impacted since covid, despite increasing NDIS wait lists.
The $4.00 target and Outperform rating are unchanged.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $1.55
If APM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 20.59 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.58 cents and EPS of 25.16 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates APM as Buy (1) -
UBS feels the multiple paid by APM Human Services International for the announced acquisition of Everyday Independence is relatively cheap. The company is a registered provider of NDIS allied health services.
The company will pay a minimum of $52.5m, including a $35m upfront cash payment.
After the broker incorporates the acquisition and associated synergies into its forecasts, FY23-26 EPS forecasts rise by 1-2% and the target rises to $3.85 from $3.75.
Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $1.4
If APM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 20.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 26.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ARF as Neutral (3) -
Arena REIT has reiterated FY23 DPS guidance of 16.8cps, in line with Credit Suisse's forecast. The REIT also declared a 2Q FY23 distribution of 4.2cpu. The broker reminds investors the ex-dividend date is December 29.
The analyst retains a Neutral rating and points out rental growth is offsetting cap rate expansion.
The target falls to $4.06 from $4.49 after the brokers increases its cap rate assumption and discount rate.
Target price is $4.06 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.18
If ARF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of -80.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $69.14
Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley believes announced regulatory interventions will increase cost growth for ASX and modestly weigh on earnings.
This view by the analyst follows both ASIC and the RBA requesting additional detail around CHESS replacement, ongoing CHESS compliance and clarity over potential conflicts of interest.
The broker notes further risks remain as the regulators are considering if additional actions are required
The Equal-weight rating and $72 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line
Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $69.14 Difference: $2.86
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $75.11, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 243.90 cents and EPS of 271.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.1, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 253.50 cents and EPS of 281.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 280.6, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ASX as Hold (3) -
ASX's clearing and settlement divisions have been requested to provide a special report into how CHESS will be maintained and supported until a replacement project is live to ASIC by late April.
Ord Minnett reiterated concerns that increased regulatory expectations and technology costs present material upside risk to ASX's expenses from FY23. This latest request likely incurs additional reporting and maintenance costs, according to the broker.
The Hold rating and target price of $73.00 are retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $69.14 Difference: $3.86
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $75.11, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 243.00 cents and EPS of 270.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.1, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 244.00 cents and EPS of 271.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 280.6, implying annual growth of 4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BKW BRICKWORKS LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $22.22
Ord Minnett rates BKW as Buy (1) -
Brickworks expects to deliver record property earnings in the first half, anticipating a result between $430-450m. Ord Minnett highlights the company has benefited from a number of one-offs, including the sale of Oakdale East Stage 2 for $301m and from revaluation profits of $112m in the half.
Near-term, Ord Minnett expects underlying property earnings to continue to grow, but anticipates this to be offset by slowing housing activity in late FY23 and FY24.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $32.00 from $29.90.
Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $22.22 Difference: $9.78
If BKW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.36, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 333.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.6, implying annual growth of -54.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 66.50 cents and EPS of 152.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.2, implying annual growth of -39.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.00
Citi rates BOQ as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi suspects Bank of Queensland's CEO resigned ahead of very little profit growth apparent for the bank after the RBA cash rate hits a high next year, given sharply rising deposit rates, slowing lending growth and further risk & compliance-led cost growth.
The broker has cut earnings forecasts on the assumption of weaker margins, and the path to returns above the cost of capital look less and less likely.
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Target falls to $7.30 from $8.75.
Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $0.3
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.55, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 85.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.4, implying annual growth of 13.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 77.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.7, implying annual growth of -4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.10
Ord Minnett rates CHC as Buy (1) -
A recent update from Charter Hall has valuations up 0.5%, or $210m, over December, bringing funds under management to to $73bn. Having predicted a -5% valuation decline over the first half, Ord Minnett finds this result positive but continues to assume a devaluation will emerge over the full year.
Valuation growth was lead by Charter Hall's long weighted average lease expiry and industrial assets, up 2.7% and 1.1% respectively. The result sees Ord Minnett lift its FY23 earnings per share 2%, ahead of both guidance and consensus forecasts.
The Buy rating and target price of $15.50 are retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $13.10 Difference: $2.4
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.67, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of -51.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.9, implying annual growth of -6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.53
Citi rates CLW as Buy (1) -
Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's asset revaluation for the six months to December highlighted an ongoing increase in values despite rising cap rates, Citi notes, as rental growth continues to surprise on the upside.
This puts net tangible asset value at $6.26, implying the stock is trading at a greater than -30% discount. While there remains uncertainty around the future movement in asset values, the broker believes this is reflecting a significant margin of safety.
Buy and $4.70 target retained.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0.17
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of -79.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.20 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.18
Macquarie rates COE as Neutral (3) -
Following news of the federal government's gas price capping, Macquarie has reviewed its outlook for Cooper Energy. Despite Victorian spot gas prices being excluded from the cap, the broker finds the regulatory intervention a distinct negative for Cooper Energy.
Declining gas prices have the broker questioning Cooper Energy's guidance range, with it now finding the upper end unachievable. Reflecting lower spot pricing, Macquarie lowers its earnings per share forecasts -22% and -12% for FY23 and FY24 respectively.
The Neutral rating and target price of $0.25 are retained.
Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.07
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 53.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of 14.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.04
Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -
Charter Hall Retail REIT's asset revaluation of 2.2% since June puts the stock price at a -19% discount to net tangible asset valuation, Citi notes.
Cap rates seem to be rising slower than market expectations, Citi suspects, but remain a risk as interest rates and inflation continue to rise. Transaction accretion and rental growth are countering the negative impacts of cap rate rises resulting in higher valuations in the convenience retail sector.
Buy and $4.30 target retained.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.26
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 28.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of -75.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.20 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $299.31
Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -
Third quarter reimbursement figures from the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services have demonstrated not only industry wide rate increases, but also that CSL's immunoglobulin price growth has outpaced competitors.
Ord Minnett finds the update encouraging, but does note reimbursement rates do not completely correlate with actual prices.
The Accumulate rating and target price of $330.00 are retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $299.31 Difference: $30.69
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $328.70, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 329.94 cents and EPS of 819.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 810.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 375.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 344.28 cents and EPS of 985.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1013.0, implying annual growth of 25.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 462.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.36
Macquarie rates ELD as Outperform (1) -
Elders has reiterated it can maintain growth following solid earnings growth of 38% and 39% in FY21 and FY22 respectively, continuing to target 10-15% through the cycle earnings growth to the end of FY23.
Macquarie retains some conservatism given a mixed outlook from Elders for the coming year, impacted by wet weather on the east coas. The broker anticipates earnings will decline -6% year-on-year, but notes broader agricultural outlooks are stronger with the Agricultural Bureau estimating farm production increases 4% in the year.
The Outperform rating and target price of $14.35 are retained.
Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $10.36 Difference: $3.99
If ELD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.30 cents and EPS of 90.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.6, implying annual growth of -14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.50 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.0, implying annual growth of 0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GL1 GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $2.00
Macquarie rates GL1 as Outperform (1) -
An updated resource estimate for Global Lithium Resources' Manna and Marble Bar spodumene projects has driven group resources above 50m tonnes. Combined, the updated assets have increased Global Lithium Resources' total tonnes 149%, and contained lithium 133%.
Macquarie notes while the Manna resource, while larger by tonnes, was lower grade than anticipated. The broker has accordingly adjusted its development scenario for the project, reflecting higher throughput at lower grades. Earnings forecasts are reduced up to -5% through to FY27.
The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.20 from $4.40.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $2.2
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HAS HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED
Rare Earth Minerals
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Overnight Price: $3.68
Macquarie rates HAS as Outperform (1) -
An exploration review of Hastings Technology Metals' Yangibana rare earths project has revealed significant resource upside, and identified new exploration targets. The company estimates exploration targets could add a further 40-60m tonnes to the resource.
Macquarie finds the resource upside significant given only 36% of the ironstone views have been drilled to resource classification at this point.
The Outperform rating and target price of $4.90 are retained.
Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $1.22
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $82.00
Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -
Mineral Resources has launched an all-scrip takeover offer for Norwest Energy ((NWE)), which owns the other 20% of the Lockyer Deep project.
Macquarie had not yet included a development scenario for Lockyer Deep into forecasts and ascribed a nominal value of $200m to Mineral Resources' 80% interest in the project in its valuation.
Outperform and $127 target retained.
Target price is $127.00 Current Price is $82.00 Difference: $45
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $90.94, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 528.00 cents and EPS of 1124.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1090.0, implying annual growth of 489.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 499.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 952.00 cents and EPS of 2104.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1375.9, implying annual growth of 26.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 606.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $4.03
Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -
Pilbara Minerals' twelfth spodumene concentrate auction on its Battery Exchange Platform has achieved a realised price of US$7,552 per dry metric tonne, or a benchmark equivalent price of US$8,299 per dry metric tonne.
Macquarie notes spodumene pricing has largely remained stable, despite spot lithium carbonate prices declining 5-8%in China, with realised pricing -3% below the company's last auction result. The broker finds Pilbara Minerals to be generating strong cash flow at current prices.
The Outperform rating and target price of $7.60 are retained.
Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $3.57
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.62, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 87.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 272.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 112.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.0, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates PLS as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Pilbara Minerals has announced a December BMX auction price for spodumene, which represents a -3% decline on November’s price.
As a result of this announcement, the company's share price fell by -9% and the broader Lithium sector also declined.
Morgans feels this was a significant over-reaction and takes the opportunity to upgrade its rating for Pilbara to Add from Hold, having just initiated coverage yesterday.
While very short-term sentiment towards the sector could weaken further, the analyst believes investors may be convinced by strong 2Q cash flows and the potential for capital management. The $4.70 target is unchanged.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.67
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.62, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 272.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.0, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PLS as Sell (5) -
UBS notes a negative market reaction to a -3.5% month-on-month decline for Pilbara Minerals' spodumene concentrate auction though notes volumes were double recent months.
This was the first decline in BMX prices since the BMX auction on July 13, points out the analyst. However,the US8,299/dmt price was well in advance of the broker's current long-term price forecast of US$1,100/t.
Pilbara Minerals is the broker's least preferred exposure under its research coverage of the Lithium sector. The Sell rating and $3.10 target is unchanged.
Over the medium and longer-term, UBS remains positive on the sector though acknowledges near-term risks in the space. China is vital and current signals indicate demand is cooling, explains the broker.
Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.62, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 272.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.0, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SSM SERVICE STREAM LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $0.69
Macquarie rates SSM as Neutral (3) -
Ongoing elevated rainfall in the December half has continued to impact on Service Stream's operations, and particularly its utilities segment. Macquarie had previously anticipated some recovery in the half, and now lowers its earnings per share forecast for FY23 by -10.5%.
Macquarie finds upside risk for the company limited amid ongoing weather and resourcing headwinds, but does note the company will benefit from positive exposure to the telco segment.
The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.66 from $0.86.
Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SSM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
VVA VIVA LEISURE LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $1.18
Citi rates VVA as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Citi upgrades Viva Leisure to Buy from Neutral, reflecting stronger than expected momentum in the company’s core business combined with a weaker share price.
While Viva’s greenfield rollout has been slower than expected, and there is medium term risk around the company’s higher priced gym offerings potentially underperforming in a weaker consumer environment, the broker sees current valuation as undemanding given long-term growth prospects.
Target rises to $1.46 from $1.39.
Target price is $1.46 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.285
If VVA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WOW WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $34.33
Citi rates WOW as Buy (1) -
Woolworths has swapped a stake in booze and pokies for cats and dogs, acquiring a 55% equity interest in Petspiration Group. The net financial impact is minimal, Citi notes.
It does however mark a shift from a passive investment to an active one where Woolworths can add value to a business in an attractive category.
Buy and $39.50 target retained.
Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: $5.17
If WOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 138.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.1, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 152.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.0, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates WOW as Neutral (3) -
While the acquisition of Petspiration Group is marginally negative Credit Suisse's investment thesis, the $586m cost is not material to the broker's overall valuation of Woolworths Group.
The broker sees only small potential operational synergies and notes a cool initial reception by investors upon the announcement, which may be due the use of free cash flow for a longer-dated payback period.
The Neutral rating and $33.01 target are retained.
Target price is $33.01 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: minus $1.32 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.1, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 107.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.0, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Underweight (5) -
Woolworths Group will use the proceeds from its -5.5% sell-down of Endeavour Group ((EDV)) to acquire a 55% interest in Petspiration Group for -$586m.
Existing management will continue to operate the assets, notes Morgan Stanley, which include the retail brand PETstock (276 stores), the e-commerce platform (Pet.co.nz), and the own-brand range of Caribu and Glow.
Management anticipates upside for revenue growth and margin expansion, and doesn't expect a post-covid reversion in sales. Underweight and $28.50 target retained.
Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: minus $5.83 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 127.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.1, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 93.00 cents and EPS of 132.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.0, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates WOW as Hold (3) -
Despite paying a full multiple, Morgans believes the deal to acquire 55% of Petspiration Group for $586m is reasonable. This is provided Woolworths Group leverages its expertise in supply chain, digital and data analytics, and store network development.
Petspiration is the owner and operator of PETstock, has brands including Caribu and Glow and is the number two specialty pet retailer in A&NZ. The company has a network of 276 stores, established e-commerce platforms and 2.4m members in its loyalty program.
The analyst notes the purchase will be funded from the recent sale of the company's 5.5% interest in Endeavour Group ((EDV)), which raised around $636m.
The Hold rating and $34.10 target are unchanged.
Target price is $34.10 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 137.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.1, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 110.00 cents and EPS of 149.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.0, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WOW as Lighten (4) -
Ord Minnett finds the capital recycling undertaken by Woolworths Group in reducing its stake in Endeavour Group ((EDV)) to fund the acquisition of Petspiration to be largely earnings neutral. The broker expects the purchase will be 1% earnings per share accretive in FY24, but feels the addition builds on Woolworths' long-term goal to build an ecosystem of everyday needs.
With the grocery industry facing a challenging year as inflation and cost of living pressures drive increased value consciousness in consumers, Ord Minnett notes risk of management distraction away from core business.
The Lighten rating is retained and the target price increases to $31.10 from $30.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $31.10 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: minus $3.23 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.1, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.0, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WOW as Neutral (3) -
UBS notes that with the exception of Cartology, the financial performance of recent complementary acquisitions is unclear and the potential materiality not yet evident.
These comments are made following yesterday's announcement of the acquisition of a 55% interest in Petspiration Group for -$586m. The proceeds from the recent sale of shares in Endeavour Group will be used as a funding source.
The broker sees synergies for the acquisition from a number of sources including across the supply chain and private label sourcing.
The Neutral rating and $34.50 target are retained.
Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: $0.17
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.74, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 92.00 cents and EPS of 123.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.1, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 149.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.0, implying annual growth of 10.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.83
Morgans rates WPR as Add (1) -
Morgans increases its target to $2.95 from $2.93 after a slight guidance increase by Waypoint REIT for 2022 distributable EPS to 16.48cpu from 16.44cpu.
A 4Q distribution of 4.03cpu was declared, a slight beat on the broker's expectation. The REIT goes ex-distribution on 29 December.
The Add rating is unchanged.
Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.12
If WPR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -71.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
APM | APM Human Services International | $2.56 | UBS | 3.85 | 3.75 | 2.67% |
ARF | Arena REIT | $3.85 | Credit Suisse | 4.06 | 4.49 | -9.58% |
BKW | Brickworks | $22.09 | Ord Minnett | 32.00 | 29.90 | 7.02% |
BOQ | Bank of Queensland | $6.92 | Citi | 7.30 | 8.75 | -16.57% |
GL1 | Global Lithium Resources | $1.90 | Macquarie | 4.20 | 4.40 | -4.55% |
HAS | Hastings Technology Metals | $3.61 | Macquarie | 4.90 | 5.70 | -14.04% |
PLS | Pilbara Minerals | $4.10 | UBS | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00% |
SSM | Service Stream | $0.69 | Macquarie | 0.66 | 0.86 | -23.26% |
VVA | Viva Leisure | $1.13 | Citi | 1.46 | 1.39 | 5.04% |
WOW | Woolworths Group | $34.31 | Ord Minnett | 31.10 | 30.00 | 3.67% |
WPR | Waypoint REIT | $2.89 | Morgans | 2.95 | 2.93 | 0.68% |
Summaries
APM | APM Human Services International | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.45 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.45 | ||
ARF | Arena REIT | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.88 |
ASX | ASX | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $69.14 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $69.14 | ||
BKW | Brickworks | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $22.22 |
BOQ | Bank of Queensland | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.00 |
CHC | Charter Hall | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $13.10 |
CLW | Charter Hall Long WALE REIT | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.53 |
COE | Cooper Energy | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.18 |
CQR | Charter Hall Retail REIT | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.04 |
CSL | CSL | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $299.31 |
ELD | Elders | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $10.36 |
GL1 | Global Lithium Resources | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.00 |
HAS | Hastings Technology Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.68 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $82.00 |
PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.03 |
Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $4.03 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $4.03 | ||
SSM | Service Stream | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.69 |
VVA | Viva Leisure | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $1.18 |
WOW | Woolworths Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $34.33 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $34.33 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $34.33 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $34.33 | ||
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $34.33 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $34.33 | ||
WPR | Waypoint REIT | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.83 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 15 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 9 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Friday 16 December 2022
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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