Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

A combination of increased 2023 marriages, post-covid catch-up and the Year of the Dragon drives positivity around a lift in the 2024 Chinese birth rate, though market volumes for infant formula are unlikely to grow in 2024, explains Macquarie.

While the above factors provide positive newsflow, the broker expects overall China infant formula total addressable market (TAM) growth remains difficult and a2 Milk Co's valuation is full.

The broker's target price rises to $5.70 from $5.50 on a valuation roll-forward and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.12, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Hold (3) -

Aeris Resources reported a weaker than expected 3Q24 result on the back of labour and equipment issues that lowered mining for Tritton and lower processing at Mt Colin.

Ord Minnett noted lower mining costs at Cracow, some -6% below their forecast offset the softer Tritton and Mt Colin results.

Management retained guidance, although cash fell to $19.4m against the broker's $28.4m forecast.

Looking ahead, Ord Minnett highlight both risks and upside to the 4Q results, depending upon the commodity prices and the company's ability to meet guidance, and the potential impact on the balance sheet.

FY24 forecast earnings are lowered by -5% and FY25 by -35%.

A Hold rating is retained with the analyst looking for more certainty around earnings.

The target price lifts slightly to 22c.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.24, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DUG as Buy (1) -

DUG Technology's 3Q24 trading update came in better than Shaw and Partners' expectations for both quarterly revenue and earnings with service contract wins rising $13.6m to a total book of $43.1m, a good turnaround from the weaker 2Q24 results.

EBITDA margins expanded to circa 40% compared to the longer term 30% average which is attributable to higher software revenue, although on a 2H24 forecast the EBITDA margin averages 34% notes the analyst.

Some minor adjustments are made to the revenue outlook for the 4Q24 revenue forecasts with Shaw and Partners pointing to potential upside to the estimates.

Unchanged Buy rating and $3.45 target price.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.55
If DUG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Citi had only initiated coverage on Endeavour Group in early April, with a Neutral rating and $5.94 price target.

Today's Q3 market update, upon initial glance, seems to have revealed a "materially better" performance than the liquor business from Coles Group ((COL)). Citi calls it a positive surprise.

Hotels are performing well, the broker finds. Citi suspects there might be minor downgrades to forecasts forthcoming on the back of today' update, but given the share price has already weakened a lot, no further downside should emerge, the broker suggests.

No change to rating or target.

Target price is $5.94 Current Price is $5.23 Difference: $0.71
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.87, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Following an analyst roundtable hosted by Evolution Mining, Morgan Stanley notes FY25 production is likely to be in the range of 764-779koz, broadly in line with expectation.

Management flagged costs should be around $100/oz higher in FY25 compared to FY24 driven by labour and "other costs".

The Overweight rating and $4.20 target are unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.47
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Goodman Group is scheduled to release its March quarterly update on Wednesday and Citi analysts, previewing the release, are expecting more good news (their words).

Citi is expecting updates on data centre roll-outs, continued realisation of higher industrial rent from in place to market rents, plus an update on the New Zealand asset management business.

The broker sees potential for yet another guidance upgrade, if not this week, then later in the year.

The Buy rating and $32.50 target are maintained. 

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $32.63 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.27, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

While the market is expecting $9bn of valuation uplift form Goodman Group's 3.6GW data centre pipeline, Morgan Stanley forecasts $20bn after an analysis of the Australian data centre market.

The broker predicts Australia will need an additional 1,500 MW of data centre capacity by 2030 and Goodman Group will be a key enabler of this thematic.

Regarding development returns, the analysts suggest Goodman Group could generate 10% yield on cost and 50% margins for powered shell projects.

A small tilt to turnkey projects would significantly improve profits, notes the broker, as they could contribute 14% yield on cost.

The Overweight rating is maintained and the target is increased to $35.30 from $34.33. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $35.30 Current Price is $32.63 Difference: $2.67
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.27, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLI as Neutral (3) -

Following a review of Helia Group's 1Q trading update, Macquarie believes gross written premium (GWP) growth will remain weak, unless the macroeconomic environment starts to favour first home buyers.

Claims continue to slowly trend upwards, but remain very low as strength in unemployment and house prices persist, notes the analyst.

Australian five-year government bond yields increased by around 50bps in April, which (if maintained) will aid investment income, but will have negative mark-to-market impacts, explains the analyst.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target slips to $3.90 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.12
If HLI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi analysts have downgraded to Neutral from Buy in response to Imdex shares rallying by some 30% since the release of interim financials.

Citi suspects rising prices for gold and copper are responsible as they feed into expectations of progressive improvement in exploration activity levels.

Citi, however, has seen no evidence that step-up in exploration is actually occurring. With typical lead time of 6-9 months between junior fund raisings and exploration, the broker believes could still be in excess of 12 months before such a meaningful contribution from juniors can be witnessed.

Target price has lost -5c to $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.16
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMM as Buy (1) -

The latest data in the Phase 2 trial for Efti in Strong Tissue Sarcoma (STS) is very encouraging, although the sample size is small according to Bell Potter.

This is the second good result for Immutep's Efti in the last few weeks, as four out of six patients under the trial have registered "near-complete responses". 

Such a result is rare in STS patients according to the broker and more results are pending in the second half of 2024, with 14 of the 40 patients enrolled since the start in July 2023.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and an 80c target price.

The analyst is looking to the Phase 2b trial data in iL first-line head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) as the next catalyst.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.365
If IMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MAQ as Overweight (1) -

Following a review of the data centre industry in Australia, Morgan Stanley believes Macquarie Technology's assets are undervalued both financially and strategically. It's felt the company provides a differentiated way to play the structural tailwinds from AI.

While Macquarie Technology is not a pure play, and lacks the land bank of peer NextDC, the requirement for capital is less as the construction pipeline is relatively more measured, explain the analysts.

Outside of data centres, the remaining assets of Macquarie Technology have a positive structural outlook, highlights Morgan Stanley. The largest earnings (EBITDA) contribution (around 50%) comes from the cloud and government business.

The broker observes Macquarie Technology has not experienced the same share price rally as peers in the space and maintains an Overweight rating. Target $100. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $82.14 Difference: $17.86
If MAQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

For Citi's early assessment, see Friday's Report. Slightly weaker revenue and higher tax have translated into Macquarie Group's financial performance slightly missing the broker's forecasts. FY24 dividend was slightly better at 640cps.

Compositionally, the result was arguably lower quality, finds the broker. MAM, BFS and CGM net profit contributions were -4-5% below consensus, offset by better earnings in MacCap and a lower corporate charge (lower bonus pool).

The analysts think management's outlook commentary implies downgrades to FY25 expectations, also because of a more muted recovery in green investments.

Sell. Target price of $161.00.

Target price is $161.00 Current Price is $183.83 Difference: minus $22.83 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $190.08, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

In the wake of Macquarie Group's FY24 result, Morgan Stanley reduces its FY25 EPS forecast by -7.5% largely due to weaker margins in Banking & Financial Services (BFS), and in the expectation of a slower investment gains recovery in MacCap.

The broker still forecasts 22% profit growth for FY25 and believes there will be an upside surprise from operating leverage due to a capital markets-led revenue recovery.

Morgan Stanley expects a 50% rise in 2024 global M&A volumes compared to the 30-year lows of 2023.

The Overweight rating is maintained. The target price falls to $215 from $225, Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $215.00 Current Price is $183.83 Difference: $31.17
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $190.08, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Hold (3) -

A -47% decline in commodities and global markets division for Macquarie Group contributed to a -32% fall in profit for FY24 and a -7% miss on Ord Minnett's estimated earnings.

Fewer sales and flat management fees underwrote a -48% decline in profits from asset management, an even larger miss on the broker's expectations, with the analyst pointing to the costs of developing green assets prior to the divestment or transfer to funds.

Looking ahead, FY25 earnings forecasts are lowered -6% on reduced asset sales; however in the medium term 9% earnings growth p.a. is expected.

Thetarget is raised by 6% to $185 and a 60% dividend payout ratio is anticipated over the next 5-years.

Hold rating unchanged.

Target price is $185.00 Current Price is $183.83 Difference: $1.17
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $190.08, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

UBS raises its target for Macquarie Group to $200 from $185 after a further review of FY24 results. The Neutral rating is maintained.

Based on the result and updated management guidance, the broker raises its FY25-27 EPS forecasts by 18%, 11% and 5%, respectively. 

While there were mixed operational group revenue adjustments, the broker highlights significant cost reductions and ongoing capital management.

In an initial response last week, UBS stated Macquarie Group's FY24 performance appeared in line with forecasts, but the business divisions missed expectations by some -3%.

The current H2 run rate suggests FY25 consensus looks "achievable", suggests the broker.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $183.83 Difference: $16.17
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $190.08, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Q1 was always going to be the weakest, Citi analysts point out. They note management at Newmont Corp left 2024 guidance unchanged, still weighted to the back-half and with costs ready to fall.

EPS forecasts have been raised but this has more to do with Citi increasing its gold price forecasts to US$2,400/oz in 2024 and US$2,900/oz in 2025.

Newmont is considered the go-to catch up trade for investors ready to play on the gold theme and Citi retains its Buy rating. Targets are $69 in Australia and US$45 in the USA.

This update was originally released on 25 April 2024.

Target price is $69.00 Current Price is $62.02 Difference: $6.98
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NIC as Buy (1) -

The March quarter 2024 results from Nickel Industries revealed a decline in the quarter-on-quarter production from its Rotary Kiln Electric Furnace (RKEF) due to delays in mining permits, 

Bell Potter highlights that the delays resulted in a drawdown of higher-cost, lower-grade inventories at the RKEF operations with production impacted at their Hengjaya Mine.

Costs however came in below expectations and capacity in nameplate was increased with the Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) production lifting 16%.

EBITDA fell -16% as forecast. Management guided lowered as a result of mine permit delay.

The broker adjusts FY24 EPS forecasts by 72% and 7% for FY25 with an expected resolution of permit issues, lower input costs and higher NPI prices.

A Buy rating is retained and the target lifted to $1.54 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.59
If NIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lifts its target for NextDC to $20 from $17.75 after conducting a deep dive into the Australian data centre industry. The new valuation incorporates the company's existing portfolio of data centres and the land bank for future development.

By the end of 2030, the broker forecasts the data centre market will increase to 2,500MW from 1,000MW currently, and sees an opportunity of around 560MW for NextDC from the existing land bank.

This potential is valued by the analysts at $4/share, following a cost of around -$12bn for construction. The broker forecasts an internal rate of return (IRR) of 12%, higher than the NextDC's current 7.7% weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.53 Difference: $3.47
If NXT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.81, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

UBS suggests a strong EPS growth backdrop and reduced M&A/financing headwinds should help close the around -20% valuation discount for Orica shares compared to the ASX200 Industrials index.

The analysts highlight strong ammonium nitrate price increases and a normalised maintenance cycle.

Buy rating retained. The broker's target price rises to $21.30 from $19.50 on medium-term EPS upgrades of around 4%, and after assuming a higher valuation multiple.

Target price is $21.30 Current Price is $17.71 Difference: $3.59
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.94, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PBH as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter adjusts the price target for the second capital distribution ($0.39 per share) on May 16 as PointsBet Holdings shares have gone ex-entitlement.

The target is reduced to 63c from $1.02 with the company's domestic business estimated at 46c per share, the Canadian operations at 8c per share and cash on balance sheet at 9c per share.

No value is ascribed to the Banach technology, although the broker assesses post Entain's acquisition of Angstrom in 2023, a similar technology, that there is a potential value to Banach, either from divestment or white labeling to other companies.

Unchanged Buy rating.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.15
If PBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PFP as Outperform (1) -

NSW and VIC births deaths and marriages numbers represent 60% of Australian deaths, and are the best proxy for total Australian deaths, in Macquarie's opinion.

Despite softer March quarter data, the broker expects deaths will rebase in the 2H of FY24.

Recent quarterly results from Service Corporation International also indicate pricing growth remains above expectations, helping to offset the impact of softer organic volumes, observes the analyst.

The Outperform rating and $6.38 target are unchanged.

Target price is $6.38 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $1
If PFP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.19, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target for Pilbara Minerals to $3.35 from $3.30 after 3Q results which were broadly in line with the broker's forecasts for production and pricing.

The analysts highlight inventories rose in the quarter due to softer shipments, while expected recovery improvements have not yet eventuated, negatively impacting on costs.

The Underweight rating for Pilbara Minerals is unchanged as Morgan Stanley believes the stock is overvalued. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting downside of -14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QUB as Equal-weight (3) -

As part of Qube Holdings' investor day last week, Morgan Stanley visited Port Botany (Patrick), Moorebank Logistics Park (Imex and Interstate terminals) and Port Kembla (AAT and Quattro Agri Terminal).

Overall, the broker came away incrementally positive on its investment thesis for the company. It's felt diverse operations create numerous synergies. For example the Qauttro grain terminal has AAT as the landlord and Qube operates the ports.

The Equal-weight rating and $3.48 target are maintained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.48 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If QUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SQ2 as Buy (1) -

It is Citi 's view Block reported a solid 1Q’24, topping gross profit expectations by 4% and strongly exceeding EBITDA by sime 20%, while lifting the outlook.

Among the observations made is Square is positioning for GPV acceleration Along with continued efficiency execution, Citi analysts state their confidence in “RL40-in-26” is rising.

Target rises to US$90 from US85 on higher estimates but the broker does suggest there's a case building for multiple expansion. Buy.

Current Price is $116.44. Target price not assessed.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SQ2 as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses Block's quarterly result as "solid" noting Cash App reported an 18% increase in revenue year-on-year, while the company registered 11% revenue growth and a 9% rise in payment volumes over the annual period.

Pleasingly profitability for the company improved on both a quarter and year-on-year basis.

The broker remains sceptical around the larger scale use of bitcoin as a consumer payment, but management remain committed to the crypto currency with 10% of bitcoin associated earnings to be invested in bitcoin,

Hold rating unchanged alongside a Very High Uncertainty rating and a target of $137.

Target price is $137.00 Current Price is $116.44 Difference: $20.56
If SQ2 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPG as Neutral (3) -

UBS sees last week's announcement of a proposed regional Multi-Operator Core Network (MOCN) agreement between TPG Telecom and Optus as a further signal of improving rationality across the Australian telco industry.

For TPG Telecom, the broker suggests the agreement will be incrementally positive given potential for longer term share gains, particularly in regional Australia.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target is reduced to $4.80 from $4.95 as the broker's earnings forecasts over FY25-26 are lowered by an average of -3% as the deal will be potentially loss making before breaking even.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $0.35
If TPG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans - Cessation of coverage

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Judging from Citi's initial response,  Westpac's interim result beat the broker's forecast by 0.5%, with bad and doubtful debts slightly better-than-anticipated.

Core earnings equally surprised slightly, on better cost control, but were in line with market consensus, on the broker's assessment.

Investment spend is materially below what management had indicated earlier, so a big catch-up needs to happen in H2, highlight the analysts.

Core NIM should be well-received, says the broker, as it looks better than peers. Westpac has announced an extension of the share buyback by $1bn, a dividend of 75c plus a special divvie of 15c on top.

Citi thinks today's result will be well-received. Sell. Target $22.25.

Target price is $22.25 Current Price is $26.42 Difference: minus $4.17 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.22, suggesting downside of -10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Sell (5) -

In a first look, UBS notes today's 1H result for Westpac is largely in line with consensus expectations, while the 15cps special dividend and the updated buyback (increased by $1bn) are considered positives.

A profit of $3.34bn compares to forecasts by the broker and consensus for $3.37bn and $3.28bn, respectively. An Interim dividend of 75cps (fully franked) was declared. The net interest margin (NIM) fell by -7bps half-on-half to 1.89% (consensus 1.88%).

The broker highlights the Business & Wealth division supported a stronger half-on-half result, while overall cost growth was in line with the  consensus forecast.

More negatively, there was a greater deterioration in asset quality than the analysts expected and lower overall provision coverage.

Sell rating. Target $23.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $26.42 Difference: minus $3.42 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.22, suggesting downside of -10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie increases its target for Wesfarmers by 5.6% to $64.60 (due to higher peer multiples) following the company's investor day which highlighted medium-term growth options in Smart Home, Rural, Auto & Commercial.

The broker suggests Commercial will be the key growth driver in coming years as Bunnings remains the "Jewel in the Crown".

The home brand Anko is providing flywheel benefits for Kmart, highlights the broker, and provides a wider range, lower
price, and easier purchase decisions for consumers. 

Officeworks also has significant short-term growth options in telco, large corporate and government, according to Macquarie. The Neutral rating is maintained 

Target price is $64.60 Current Price is $68.31 Difference: minus $3.71 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $58.70, suggesting downside of -14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WES as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett points to ongoing growth from Bunnings with an expected 6.5% compound average sales growth rate over the next decade, compared to 5.8% currently.

Wesfarmers is looking to broaden the Bunnings' product offerings to pet care and cleaning products, alongside boosting the commercial division.

The 40% split from commercial customers is targeted to rise to 50% of Bunnings total sales versus 60% currently from the do-it-yourself business. 

The Kmart private label Anko is benefiting from customers trading down as cost of living pressures bite, and management are exploring export opportunities.

Short term earnings are expected to benefit from lithium production from the Mt Holland mine and the Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery.

Spodumene has the scope to double by 2028 depending on the final investment decision and the broker envisages lithium could contribute 10% to Wesfarmers earnings as the lithium market matures.

A Sell rating is retained as the stock is considered as "materially overvalued". Target is $43.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $68.31 Difference: minus $25.31 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $58.70, suggesting downside of -14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WOR as Initiation of Coverage with Add (1) -

Worley is a global leader in professional project and asset services providing a full spectrum of services, from digital solutions and engineering to construction and maintenance, to a number of the world’s largest companies, Morgans notes.

The company services energy (new  and mature), chemicals, and resources sectors. The nature of Worley ’s contracted work is largely low risk, the broker points out, with 80% of aggregated revenues generated by way of reimbursable contracts.

The recent sell-down of Worley ’s largest shareholder Sidara (Dar Group) at $14.35 represents a rare liquidity event driving near-term volatility in the share price. Morgans initiates coverage with an Add rating and $18.00 target price.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $15.37 Difference: $2.63
If WOR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.27, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WOW as Hold (3) -

While Woolworths reported March Q sales growth overall that was slightly better than Morgans expected, management said there was a noticeable shift in customer sentiment and shopping behaviour since Christmas.

Woolworths also gave an update on its major supply chain projects with site commissioning, ramp-up and dual-running costs of $90-100m expected to be incurred in FY25 and FY26 before benefits flow through from FY27.

Following the sales trading update and after factoring these extra costs and Woolworths' sale of a 5% stake in Endeavour Group ((EDV)), Morgans' FY24-26 underlying earnings forecasts fall by between -2-5%.

Hold retained, target falls to $31.00 from $34.70. The broker prefers Coles ((COL)).

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $30.59 Difference: $0.41
If WOW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.83, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources