Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of the reporting season, Morgan Stanley assesses Life360 has a supportive backdrop from high US vaccination rates, re-openings and September back to school. This comes as viral and paid marketing campaigns see stronger brand engagement and downloads.

The broker feels the value proposition of the membership model has materially improved, and believes that a strong consumer response enables more spend on customer acquisition. Overweight rating and $8.60 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $1.57
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

FY21 guidance by Audinate Group was a 2.5% beat on Morgan Stanley's revenue estimates. This implies US$6.9m in the fourth quarter, slightly lower than the record US$7m third quarter, with some impact from chip headwinds, explains the broker.

The analyst highlights a headstart in FY22, with a record order backlog, though currently the Live segment is still likely depressed. The Overweight rating and $10 target price are unchanged. Industry view: In-line.

FY22 guidance is for a "Return to US$ revenue growth in the historical range and consistent with current market expectations". The analyst is seeking clarity on a number of issues including more colour on broader OEM adoption of Dante Video.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: $0.8
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AD8 as Buy (1) -

After yet another strong quarter and underlying growth back to historical levels, the "V" shaped recovery for Audinate continues to surprise UBS to the upside. The Buy rating is unchanged with the target price rising to $11.30 from $10.40.

The broker points out the outlook is strong, with the order backlog at record highs though management flagged uncertainty around global supply of chips/electronic components.

While the first Dante video products (Bolin and Patton) were launched in June, to positive feedback, the analyst would like to see the product range broaden further, and gauge the initial uptake by AV integrators.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $9.20 Difference: $2.1
If AD8 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the composition of mortgage lodgements shifting to higher margin products. The company's home loan products were 9.28% of lodgements in the fourth quarter which implies 95% growth over the prior corresponding quarter and 12% sequentially.

These products comprise variable-rate loans and fixed-rate loans and both are higher margin than third-party product. Outperform and $3.06 target retained.

Target price is $3.06 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.46
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Underweight (5) -

In a review of respective investment cases, Morgan Stanley prefers Origin Energy ((ORG)) over AGL Energy, on de-merger implementation uncertainty for the latter, and overall wholesale positioning.

Should the demerger proceed, the broker views the New AGL business as attractive though thinks Accel could be excluded from many institutional mandates on ESG concerns. Underweight rating. Target is $8.88. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $0.74
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.33, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers major bank bad debt forecasts to 60bps from 70bps over 2020-23, resulting in circa 2-3% forecast EPS upgrades. Despite lockdowns, it's important to remember that Australia’s economic recovery is far stronger than anyone predicted, notes the broker. 

The analyst highlights insolvency statistics are suggesting that impaired asset formation will be much below pre-covid, given a recovery is evident in even the hardest hit industries. 

Any upside surprise on bad debts strengthens the capital management argument, pulling forward buybacks, explains Citi. The Neutral rating and $29.50 target are retained for ANZ Bank.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: $1.65
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.00, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie suspects the perceived benefit for banks from rising interest rates is inflated. Various offsets, including competition, have constrained margin upside.

The broker expects banks will remain leveraged to bond yields and, if the sector continues to outperform from rising rate expectations, then investors are advised to take profits ahead of the turnaround.

Macquarie expects ANZ Bank's balance sheet trends will remain weak for the rest of the current financial year. Over the medium term, the broker continues to believe there is value in the stock. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $29.50 from $30.50.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: $1.65
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.00, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APT as Neutral (3) -

Recent data highlights that most BNPL players saw an improvement in website visits and app downloads in June. While FY22 looks set to be a strong year for Afterpay, Citi sees downside risks to near-term consensus forecasts.

The broker is cautious in extrapolating positive app download data, and lowers US active customer forecasts to 10.5m from 10.6m. The analyst lowers the FY21 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -5%, and the target price falls to $125 from $128.30. Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $117.51 Difference: $7.49
If APT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $124.00, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

The deceleration in prior quarters has been reversed in the June quarter with premium rate increases of 5.8%. The growth in premium rates is positive, despite the cycling of four or more years of positive comparables.

A lower interest-rate environment also drives the need for higher premiums to support insurance company underwriting profitability, Macquarie points out.

Outperform rating and $23.13 target maintained.

Target price is $23.13 Current Price is $21.39 Difference: $1.74
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.70, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

The Citi global commodities team upgrades the Brent oil price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 by 4% and 13%, on a strong demand recovery in India, China, the US and Europe.

The broker now expects demand will surpass the August 2019 record by August this year, on pent-up leisure demand. The commodities team also lifts 2021 and 2022 JKM LNG price forecasts by 9% and 23%.

The analyst's FY21-23 earnings forecasts for Beach Energy have been revised by -5%, 0% and 4%, respectively, on lower Western Flank oil production, partially offset by the commodity price upgrades. The target falls to $1.36 from $1.42. Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.1
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers major bank bad debt forecasts to 60bps from 70bps over 2020-23, resulting in circa 2-3% forecast EPS upgrades. Despite lockdowns, it's important to remember that Australia’s economic recovery is far stronger than anyone predicted, notes the broker. 

The analyst highlights insolvency statistics are suggesting that impaired asset formation will be much below pre-covid, given a recovery is evident in even the hardest hit industries. 

Any upside surprise on bad debts strengthens the capital management argument, pulling forward buybacks, explains Citi. The Neutral rating and $95 target are retained for Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $98.59 Difference: minus $3.59 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $89.17, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie suspects the perceived benefit for banks from rising interest rates is inflated. Various offsets, including competition, have constrained margin upside.

The broker expects banks will remain leveraged to bond yields and, if the sector continues to outperform from rising rate expectations, then investors are advised to take profits ahead of the turn around.

Commonwealth Bank's rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral, following a strong rally in the share price. The main upside, Macquarie assesses, is ongoing material share gains and the ability to preserve margins despite the impact of lower rates. Target is raised to $88.50 from $86.00.

Target price is $88.50 Current Price is $98.59 Difference: minus $10.09 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $89.17, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CIP as Hold (3) -

The REIT announced a portfolio revaluation as at June, resulting in a further increase of 11%. This follows from March revaluations, which saw portfolio values rise 8.3%. Morgans suggests the latest increase reflects a strong transactional market in the industrial sector.

The broker notes the portfolio cap rate has compressed -89bps since December 2020, and now sits at 4.53% versus 6.05% at June 2020. The REIT has also acquired a further three assets, increasing the portfolio value to $3bn. 

Morgans increases the target price to $3.71 from $3.55 and retains the Hold rating.

Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $0
If CIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes specialist platforms continue to gain share with Netwealth ((NWL)) and Hub24 also likely to benefit further amid significant disruption in the industry over the next three years.

This will stem from sale processes, de-mergers and integrations at large institutional platforms, as well as the ban on grandfathered commissions which came into effect on January 1, 2021. 

Outperform rating and $31.50 target maintained.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $26.09 Difference: $5.41
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.82, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUM as Buy (1) -

According to UBS, Humm Group has an immaterial exposure to Forum Finance, a finance company reportedly under investigation for fraud. Given there are no earnings revisions, UBS's valuation is unchanged and the Buy rating and target price of $1.60 are retained. 

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.62
If HUM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 40.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses Medibank Private's business seems to be performing well with improving top line growth and tailwinds from an
increased focus of the population on health. Also, the ability to keep its customers satisfied by providing cash rebates is beneficial.

The broker predicts second half gross margins should benefit from the reversal of the circa -$10m adverse covid impact in the first half,  together with the impact of rate rises on both 1 October 2020 and 1 April 2021.

Given the above, and a favourable mark-to-market, the analyst increases the FY21 EPS forecast by 2% and raises the target price to $3.20 from $3.10. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Citi lowers major bank bad debt forecasts to 60bps from 70bps over 2020-23, resulting in circa 2-3% forecast EPS upgrades. Despite lockdowns, it's important to remember that Australia’s economic recovery is far stronger than anyone predicted, notes the broker. 

The analyst highlights insolvency statistics are suggesting that impaired asset formation will be much below pre-covid, given a recovery is evident in even the hardest hit industries. 

Any upside surprise on bad debts strengthens the capital management argument, pulling forward buybacks, explains Citi. The Neutral rating and $26.25 target are retained for National Australia Bank.

Target price is $26.25 Current Price is $26.08 Difference: $0.17
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.33, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie suspects the perceived benefit for banks from rising interest rates is inflated. Various offsets, including competition, have constrained margin upside.

The broker expects banks will remain leveraged to bond yields and, if the sector continues to outperform from rising rate expectations, then investors are advised to take profits ahead of the turn around.

National Australia Bank's rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, following the recent underperformance in the share price.

The strong capital position and provisioning leaves the balance sheet well-placed to absorb potential issues for both AUSTRAC and an economic slowdown, Macquarie suggests. Target is steady at $28.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $26.08 Difference: $1.92
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.33, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Nickel Mines expects to declare dividends at least equal its interim and final payouts in 2020 although Macquarie notes no firm pay-out ratio has been defined.

The broker takes a more conservative approach to dividends and lowers 2021 and 2022 dividend forecasts by -23% and -12%, respectively, to match the 2020 pay-out.

The broker expects a sequential improvement in nickel pig iron production in the second quarter of 2021. Outperform rating maintained. The target price is $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.14
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWL as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse observes specialist platforms continue to gain share with Netwealth and Hub24 ((HUB)) also likely to benefit further amid significant disruption in the industry over the next three years.

This will stem from sale processes, de-mergers and integrations at large institutional platforms, as well as the ban on grandfathered commissions which came into effect on January 1 2021. 

Underperform maintained as the stock is considered fully priced. Target is $16.50.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.03 Difference: $0.47
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.02, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORE as Outperform (1) -

Shipments were lower in the fourth quarter, partially offset by higher realised prices. Macquarie upgrades FY22 and FY23 earnings estimates on improved realised pricing. The broker also reduces assumed price discounts versus benchmark for Olaroz production in FY22 and beyond.

The completion of the merger with Galaxy Resources ((GXY)) is expected to occur on August 16 and presents a near-term catalyst, in the broker's view. Outperform maintained. Target rises to $8.20 from $7.80.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: $1.6
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.67, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

In a review of respective investment cases, Morgan Stanley prefers Origin Energy over AGL Energy ((AGL)), on de-merger implementation uncertainty for the latter, and overall wholesale positioning.

The broker likes Origin Energy's Integrated Gas division's leverage to oil prices and regional LNG prices. It's estimated this partly offsets earnings headwinds in Energy Markets from falling pool prices and rising gas procurement costs.

The Equal-weight rating and $4.88 target are maintained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $4.88 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.33
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

The Citi global commodities team upgrades the Brent oil price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 by 4% and 13%, on a strong demand recovery in India, China, the US and Europe.

The broker now expects demand will surpass the August 2019 record by August this year, on pent-up leisure demand. The commodities team also lifts 2021 and 2022 JKM LNG price forecasts by 9% and 23%.

The analyst's lifts 2021-23 earnings forecasts for Oil Search rise by 8%, 34% and 12%, respectively, on upgraded commodity prices. The company is considered the most fundamentally levered to the oil price. The target rises to $4.32 from $4.21. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $4.32 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.43
If OSH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Outperform (1) -

Underground mining of Savannah has started 6-8 weeks earlier than expected. This should enable Panoramic Resources to re-start the process plant earlier and ramp up production faster.

The main risk facing the company in the next six months is securing the workforce to deliver on its targets, Macquarie suggests. The Outperform Rating and $0.19 target are retained.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.04
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRN as Outperform (1) -

Perenti Global has moved closer to finalising the Motheo contract and has commenced work at Savannah. Macquarie assesses the significant amount of work in hand and on the order book supports cash flow and the attractive 8% dividend yield.

Margin compression remains a short-term headwind but the broker believes most of this is factored into the share price. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $0.95 from $0.90.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.18
If PRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie improves its forecasts for QBE Insurance's combined operating ratio in FY21 to 93.6% amid a strengthening pricing environment.

The broker assesses the stock is currently trading at a -10% discount to weighted international peers, in line with the three-year average. Neutral rating maintained and Macquarie raises the target to $10.10 from $10.00.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $10.50 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.83, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Fourth quarter premium rate increases of 7.8% have reversed the previous deceleration.

The property class rate increases appear set to continue and Macquarie notes a moderation in commercial motor has reversed.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and $4.70 target.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.4
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

After assessing results from EU peer Synlab, Morgan Stanley's self-described simplistic modelling indicates upside risk to group 2021 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) estimates of around 6% and 7% for Sonic Healthcare.

The broker estimates the company will generate $3.11bn (circa 40% of group revenue) in 2021, representing around 5.5% growth at constant currency from its European operations. Overweight rating maintained. Target is $38.60. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $38.60 Current Price is $38.03 Difference: $0.57
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.36, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -

The Citi global commodities team upgrades the Brent oil price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 by 4% and 13%, on a strong demand recovery in India, China, the US and Europe.

The broker now expects demand will surpass the August 2019 record by August this year, on pent-up leisure demand. The commodities team also lifts 2021 and 2022 JKM LNG price forecasts by 9% and 23%.

The analyst's 2021-23 earnings forecasts for Santos have been revised by -2%, 25% and 4%, respectively, with downgrades to Cooper basin production forecasts offset by upgrades to the commodity price forecast. The target falls to $7.45 from $7.55. Neutral rating.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $0.33
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.96, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SXY as Buy (1) -

The Citi global commodities team upgrades the Brent oil price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 by 4% and 13%, on a strong demand recovery in India, China, the US and Europe.

The broker now expects demand will surpass the August 2019 record by August this year, on pent-up leisure demand. The commodities team also lifts 2021 and 2022 JKM LNG price forecasts by 9% and 23%.

The analyst lifts the target price for Senex Energy to $4.05 from $3.84, and maintains the Buy rating. The broker marks-to market for second quarter government production data and LNG cargo data, highlighting possible production underperformance. 

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.57
If SXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates VEA as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse welcomes the update from Viva Energy, with refining margins above forecasts along with retail and commercial volumes that were higher than the same period in 2019.

The commercial segment appeared to benefit from the retention of contracts and new contract wins, while growth in retail volumes was largely from the performance of the regionally-oriented Liberty brand.

The refining margin appears to have averaged US$7.30/bbl for the second quarter. Support for the federal government's refinery subsidy suggests the refining margin would need to exceed US$7.70/bbl to provide a net positive contribution to earnings, the broker suggests.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $2.14 from $1.95.

Target price is $2.14 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.07
If VEA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Viva Energy has guided to first half operating earnings of $390-410m, which Macquarie notes will be a record result since the 2018 listing and well ahead of expectations.

The broker is impressed by the company's ability to capture market share in both retail and commercial. The dividend is expected to be reinstated and a return up to $100m in capital from the sale of the property portfolio could follow at the August result.

Following the government deal to fund 50%, Macquarie brings forward the expected refinery clean fuel upgrade work to 2022. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $2.40 from $2.15.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.33
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

First half earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $390-410m was ahead of UBS' prior forecast of $324m, due to higher realised refining margins and higher fuel volumes (ex-jet).

The broker explains total fuel volumes (ex-jet) are now above pre-covid levels. Strong diesel demand in regional Australia, particularly from agriculture and resource industries, has offset weakness in lockdown-affected metro fuel sales, notes the analyst.

UBS sees asymmetric upside as the group benefits from improving refining margins and improving transport fuel demand, as travel restrictions ease. Buy retained. Target rises to $2.45 from $2.35. 

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.38
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Buy (1) -

Citi lowers major bank bad debt forecasts to 60bps from 70bps over 2020-23, resulting in circa 2-3% forecast EPS upgrades. Despite lockdowns, it's important to remember that Australia’s economic recovery is far stronger than anyone predicted, notes the broker. 

The analyst highlights insolvency statistics are suggesting that impaired asset formation will be much below pre-covid, given a recovery is evident in even the hardest hit industries. 

Any upside surprise on bad debts strengthens the capital management argument, pulling forward buybacks, explains Citi. The Buy rating and $29.50 target are retained for Westpac Bank.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $25.37 Difference: $4.13
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.37, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie suspects the perceived benefit for banks from rising interest rates is inflated. Various offsets, including competition, have constrained margin upside.

The broker expects banks will remain leveraged to bond yields and, if the sector continues to outperform from rising rate expectations, then investors are advised to take profits ahead of the turn around.

Westpac's management appears to have addressed franchise issues and the trends on the balance sheet are improving, yet Macquarie remains sceptical about the aggressive cost reduction targets and envisages material downside risk to consensus expectations.

Still, valuation is supportive and a Neutral rating is retained. Target is reduced to $26.50 from $27.25.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $25.37 Difference: $1.13
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.37, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

The Citi global commodities team upgrades the Brent oil price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 by 4% and 13%, on a strong demand recovery in India, China, the US and Europe.

The broker now expects demand will surpass the August 2019 record by August this year, on pent-up leisure demand. The commodities team also lifts 2021 and 2022 JKM LNG price forecasts by 9% and 23%.

The analyst lifts the target price for Woodside Petroleum to $25.38 from $25.04, and maintains the Neutral rating.

Target price is $25.38 Current Price is $23.44 Difference: $1.94
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.68, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates Z1P as Buy (1) -

Recent data highlights that most BNPL players saw an improvement in website visits and app downloads in June. Zip Co's Quadpay had a relatively soft June, with website visits down -4% month-on-month, while app downloads were up 3%, explains Citi.

The broker lowers the company’s cash earnings (EBITDA) by -$8m or -59%, primarily to reflect higher costs. The analyst's target price falls to $10.25 from $10.90, and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $8.30 Difference: $1.95
If Z1P meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.69, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources