Australian Broker Call

UBS rates A2M as Buy (1) -

It looks like a meaningful recovery may be on the horizon in infant formula sales via a2 Milk's daigou channel over the next 18 months, predicts UBS, along with a substantial medium-term China infant formula share gains via mother and baby store rollout.

Export data along with the ongoing covid travel restrictions continue to point to weak Australia and New Zealand infant formula sales with low distributor/reseller margins across both retail and daigou channels, points out the broker.

UBS maintains its Buy rating with a target of NZ$17.

Current Price is $10.65. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $12.11, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AIM as Add (1) -

Access Innovation Holdings delivered a second quarter result stronger than Morgans had anticipated, with FY21 prospectus revenue forecasts now likely to be exceeded.

The analyst calculates if second half revenue grows 25%, as per the first half, there is $6m or 9% upside to prospectus revenue forecasts.

The broker makes no changes to forecasts and the Add rating and target price of $1.37 are unchanged.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.39
If AIM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMC as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett updates earnings forecasts ahead of Amcor’s second quarter FY21 result, due on 3 February. The broker expects constant-currency EPS growth of 6.3%.

A long period of share price range bound trading is attributable to a slowdown in EPS growth relative to the five years prior, explains the analyst. In addition, the P/E multiple has de-rated along with other listed peers.

A reversal of this trend could occur in three different ways, according to the broker. Firstly, it's considered management would need to sustain 2% organic volume growth for several consecutive quarters.

Another way is to attain increasing business from fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies that have set targets related to sustainable packaging. Finally, the company may benefit as capital flows toward company's with good standing on ESG metrics.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target is lowered to $17 from $17.25.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.35 Difference: $2.65
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.96, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Lower grades led to Aurelia Metals producing only 14.8koz of gold in the December quarter when the broker had forecast 19.9koz. Base metal production was nevertheless solid, thereby reducing costs via by-product sales.

The broker is not concerned, noting Federation is a key growth project for the miner and updates are expected in the coming months. Outperform and 65c target retained.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.24
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APE as Hold (3) -

Eagers Automotive issued 2020 underlying profit (PBT) guidance of $209.4m. Ord Minnett notes the guidance is substantially higher on 2019 and above the previous guidance range of $195–205m provided in early December.

Management highlighted the outperformance was driven by both the car and truck retailing divisions.

The analyst believes the strong result derived from restructuring of the business (including synergies from the Automotive Holdings merger). In addition, elevated gross margins as OEM supply tightened and car sales recovered were considered to contribute.

The broker highlights that less than ten months ago many investors would have suggested the need to raise equity. Now the analyst believes the focus over the next 6-12 months will be one of capital allocation, due to a spike in available funds.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $13.50 from $13.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.20 Difference: $0.3
If APE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.04, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

UBS views ASX as a quality safe stock that, while delivering minimal earnings growth of circa 3.5% pa over the last 10 years and a low annual dividend yield of circa 3%, has also rarely suffered from any large earnings decline or surprise earnings disappointment. 

Despite the stock underperforming the ASX200 by circa -25% in the last three months, the broker notes the current share price is still trading above fair value. 

UBS retains its Sell rating with the target dropping to $66 from $75.00.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $71.38 Difference: minus $5.38 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $70.44, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BUB as Sell (5) -

Bubs Australia's second quarter results missed Citi's sales forecasts, and more cash was consumed than expected, largely due to daigou underperformance.

The broker highlights third quarter key risks including a reduction in marketing investment could have an adverse impact on the brand. In addition, there are considered downside risks as pantry stocking in the previous corresponding period is cycled. 

The analyst feels the company is unlikely to be able to offset headwinds from the continued disruption of the daigou channel.

The Sell rating is maintained and the target price is decreased to $0.51 from $0.61.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If BUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's analysis of Commonwealth Bank's mobile apps indicates the bank has maintained its leadership.

With digital offerings continuing to evolve, the broker expects an overall trend towards providing more convenience, using individual customer data to make the apps more personalised and more loyalty features.

The Underweight rating is unchanged with a target price of $78.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $78.50 Current Price is $85.14 Difference: minus $6.64 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $76.51, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Sell (5) -

Champion Iron's earnings were better than Citi had expected, driven by higher realised pricing. 

Citi raises FY21 EPS estimates by 17% and leaves iron ore price forecasts unchanged, while noting China’s steel mills are now loss making, given high raw material cost inputs.

Neutral rating, with the target price rising to $4.60 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Champion Iron's December quarter revenue and earnings both beat expectations, with higher realised prices offsetting lower shipments.

The company has sufficient funding capacity, the broker notes, for the Bloom Lake phase 2 expanson which will see production double over three years. Meanwhile, buoyant iron ore prices support a solid earnings upgrade cycle. Outperform and $6.00 target retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.79
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COE as Neutral (3) -

"Waiting for Orbost" remains Credit Suisse's investment thesis for Cooper Energy. The broker prefers being on the sidelines until there is clarity regarding Orbost performance.

Cooper's production for the December quarter was lower than estimated led by downtime at Orbost. Going ahead, the company is confident of a run rate of 45TJ/d, leading the broker to reduce its 2021 production forecast. 

Neutral rating. Target rises slightly to $0.34 from $0.30.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0
If COE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Neutral (3) -

While the root cause of foaming at Orbost remains unknown, Cooper Energy expects Sole gas production to return to a steady rate by next week.

The broker will not rule out an equity raising, but at this stage assumes funding will be covered by debt refinancing. The broker retains Neutral, preferring Karoon Gas ((KAR)) and Senex Energy ((SXY)) in the space. Target unchanged at 38c.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.04
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COE as Equal-weight (3) -

Cooper Energy delivered its second-quarter production results with production of 0.49 mmboe lower than Morgan Stanley's estimated 0.75 mmboe.

For now, due to absorber cleaning taking place every six weeks, the current sustainable production levels are expected to be 45 TJ/day, below the broker's forecasts of 55 TJ/day. 

While expecting improvements over time, Morgan Stanley concedes the situation remains difficult to forecast. 

Equal-weight retained for Cooper Energy. Target unchanged at 40c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.06
If COE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COE as Buy (1) -

The December quarter was well below Ord Minnett's forecast, due to plant operational issues at the Orbost gas project.

The broker despairs the root cause of the problem at the plant has yet to be identified, more than nine months after first production. Therefore, it's considered hard to know when the plant will reach nameplate capacity and achieve practical completion.

After the analyst lowered the production forecast from nameplate capacity to 45 terajoules (TJ) a day to the end of the plant life, the target price was also lowered to $0.47 from $0.58.

The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.13
If COE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CQR as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades its Charter Hall Retail REIT rating to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target moves to $3.72 from $3.60. Industry view: In-line.

The broker is of the opinion that retailers with regional exposure will have an advantage in the short to medium term, driven by tourism and potential de-urbanisation.

Within its coverage, Morgan Stanley finds the REIT's assets to be the most appropriately located to capitalise on that theme.

Target price is $3.72 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.19
If CQR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DHG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse estimates that NSW accounts for up to 60% of Domain Holdings' residential depth revenues with the company in the broker's view likely to be a key beneficiary of stamp duty reform in NSW.

Highlighting its exposure to the Sydney market, Domain Holdings reported 15% residential depth revenue growth in the first quarter, despite the negative impact of the Melbourne lockdown.

Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral with the target rising to $5.10 from $4.40.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $0.48
If DHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ELO as Overweight (1) -

Elmo Software reported annual recurring revenue of $74.2m in-line with Morgan Stanley's estimated $74.0m. Guidance was reiterated at all lines.

Second-quarter receipts were up 22.1% to $18.8m while the cash balance was $71.4m. Morgan Stanley feels the result confirms Elmo is on track to deliver on its FY21 expectations on sales growth.

Overweight rating with a target of $9.70. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $2.9
If ELO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

December quarter production and costs were better than Citi had anticipated and increases confidence that FY21 guidance will be met or exceeded.

The broker highlights the company continues to add cash to the balance sheet and lift key metrics at Red Lake. 

The company noted strong base metals prices provide an opportunity to beat all-in-sustaining costs (AISC), and production in the second half is still expected to be stronger. 

Rating of Neutral and the target price of $4.90 are unchanged. 

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.35
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

Evolution Mining's production and cash flow were both solid in the December quarter, observes Credit Suisse who further notes the company continues to lead its peers when it comes to cash margin generation

Second half production is expected to be higher than first half although the March quarter is expected to lag on account of mill maintenance.

Considering Evolution Mining one of its top picks in its large-cap gold coverage, Credit Suisse maintains its Outperform rating with a target of $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.95
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Evolution Mining's December quarter gold production beat Macquarie by 6%, with costs in line. The miner is well placed to achieve the top end of guidance, the broker suggests, with a strong second half anticipated and elevated copper prices helping to reduce costs.

Red Lake's transformation plan also appears to be going well. On a valuation basis, the broker upgrades to Outperform form Neutral. Target rises to $5.40 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.85
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Evolution Mining's Cowal and Ernest Henry operations had the largest beats versus Morgan Stanley's forecasts led by strong gold grades The company expects a better second half for Cowal as more ore is accessed. Costs at both operations were lower than the broker expected.

Guidance remains intact for FY21 despite costs tracking low while operating income is to be 6% higher than the broker's forecast.

Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating. Target is $4.60. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.05
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Solid quarterly results show Morgans that Evolution Mining is well placed to achieve mid-point production guidance, and beat the lower end of cost guidance for FY21.

The company expects to report a material increase to the ore reserves at Red Lake in Canada this quarter. Also, studies and permits for growth projects at Cowal and Red Lake are progressing well.

Morgans maintains a Hold rating. The price target is decreased to $4.85 from $5.05, to allow for impacts of moves in foreign exchange and the US dollar gold price.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.3
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Evolution Mining reported December quarter group gold production of 180,305oz, some 6% above Ord Minnett’s estimate. The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,166/oz was also considered better than expected.

The broker considers momentum is tracking well for unchanged guidance of 670–730,000oz at an AISC of $1,240–1,300/oz.

The Hold rating and $4.40 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolution Mining’s December quarterly was stronger than UBS expected, with production 6% higher than forecast. This also led costs on an all-in-sustaining basis to be -5% below the broker's forecast.

While better than expected, the quarter remains a transitional one and does not reflect the underlying value of the portfolio, cautions the broker.

The assets at Cowal and Red Lake are expected to drive group production towards circa 900kozpa over the next 4-5 years. Sell rating. Target drops to $4.20 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -

After a fourth quarter report, Morgans assesses the positive trends seen since the covid-induced lows of the second quarter are continuing. 

Overall portfolio revenue is returning to growth (versus the previous corresponding period) as the pandemic has accelerated the structural move to digital/online, explains the broker.

The analyst believes the November acquisitions of the Adevinta assets will prove highly attractive.

The Add rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $1.59 from $1.47.

Target price is $1.59 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.12
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

December quarter shipments for Fortescue Metals Group were 3% higher than forecast by Citi.

FY21 guidance was unchanged.

The company noted that with engineering nearing completion and the majority of contracts committed, forecast total investment
and schedule for the Iron Bridge magnetite project is undergoing a detailed review.

Citi reaffirms its Neutral rating with a target of $21.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $22.73 Difference: minus $1.73 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.58, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse notes Fortescue Metals Group presented a solid set of December quarter numbers, ahead of expectations. It looks like the company may yet again beat its own guidance, suggests the broker. Full-year guidance remains unchanged.

Credit Suisse highlights any updates on the Iron Bridge project will be the key focus at the result, to be held on February 18.

Neutral and $16.50 target retained.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $22.73 Difference: minus $6.23 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.58, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue Metals beat on all of shipments, realised prices and costs in the December quarter. Guidance remains unchanged but currency headwinds are beginning to drag, the broker notes.

This will lead not only to higher cash costs in FY21 but increased capex for Iron Bridge. That said, earnings momentum remains strong on buoyant iron ore prices. Target falls to $26.50 from $27.00, Outperform retained.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $22.73 Difference: $3.77
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.58, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Fortescue Metals Group's second-quarter production and shipments were behind Morgan Stanley's forecast but still on track to achieve its FY21 guidance. The group's production was -8% behind the broker's estimate while shipments were -4% weaker. 

FY21 shipments are expected to be 175-180mt versus Morgan Stanley's forecast of 184Mt with costs expected at US$13-13.5/t against the broker's US$13.50/t. 

Morgan Stanley maintains its Underweight rating with a target of $17.45. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $17.45 Current Price is $22.73 Difference: minus $5.28 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.58, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Average revenue at a modest -9% discount to benchmark pricing, costs at US$12.80 a tonne and shipments at a rate of 184m tonnes per annum were all better than Ord Minnett's forecasts for the December quarter.

The broker notes the key unknown heading into the first-half FY21 results in February is the dividend. Guidance is for a full-year payout ratio of circa 80%, while the analyst forecasts an interim dividend payout ratio of 70% or US$1.26 per share.

Ord Minnett expects 2021 should be a good year for the miners as the world recovers from covid-19, which should drive a period of synchronised global growth.

Buy rating. Target is unchanged at $29.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $22.73 Difference: $6.27
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.58, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Buy (1) -

UBS observes Fortescue Metals Group reported a strong December quarter in terms of operating income and a higher average selling price. On the flip side, cash flow was lighter on account of higher net debt.

An interim dividend of $1.20 is forecast which would rise to circa $1.45ps if the group were to announce an 80% pay-out.

UBS retains its Buy rating with the target dropping to $23 from $24.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $22.73 Difference: $0.27
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.58, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GXY as Neutral (3) -

Galaxy Resources' shipping volume at 75kt for the December quarter was significantly higher than the estimate of 52kt by Citi.

Recovery was 51% versus 54% for 2020, reflecting increased consumption of surface stockpiles containing higher basalt and lepidolite than fresh ore.

The company stated Mt Caitlin will be ramped to full rate in response to improving prices, low inventory and strong demand from its customers.

Neutral rating is retained by Citi, with the target rising to $3 from $2.50, to account for recent lithium price momentum. 

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.06
If GXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting downside of -19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GXY as Underweight (5) -

While production and shipments had been pre-flagged, Galaxy Resources notes significantly lower recoveries and circa 3% higher costs than Morgan Stanley expected. The company highlighted higher costs driven by higher material mined and lower recovery.

For 2021, the company guides to Mt Cattlin ramping up to full rate by the second quarter while production is expected at 162-175 kdmt, slightly lower than the broker's 177 kdmt. Recoveries guidance at 55-58% is lower than the broker's expected 59%.

Due to short mine life and project risk concerns, Morgan Stanley is Underweight. Target is $1.35. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If GXY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting downside of -19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GXY as Hold (3) -

Galaxy Resources' production and sales from the Mt Cattlin operation were considered strong by Ord Minnett, and guidance for
spodumene cash costs was in-line with expectations. 

About 70% of company valuation relates to the Sal de Vida project in Argentina. The broker highlights the strategic and long-life nature of the deposit, as the company is showing aspirations for a Stage 3 expansion.

Hold rating is maintained with the target rising to $2.60 from $2.40, after the analyst lifts 2021 and 2022 forecast prices for spodumene by 13%.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If GXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting downside of -19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GXY as Buy (1) -

Galaxy Resources had a tough year although the December quarter was solid, observes UBS, with production of spodumene -23% versus last year but 11% over the last quarter at 33kt.

The company's full-year at 151kt are up 14% year on year, enabling Galaxy Resources to clear its inventory. UBS's 2020 earnings forecast has been lifted by 36% to a net loss after tax of -US$9m.

Buy rating with the target rising to $3.30 from $2.60.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.36
If GXY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting downside of -19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HRL as Add (1) -

HRL Holdings delivered first half revenue of $16.4m and underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $3.5m, slightly ahead of Morgans’ forecast.

Analytica’s earnings (EBITDA) performance (up 14%), and the attainment of a net cash position, were key highlights for the broker.

Morgans has increased the Geotech division’s earnings estimates, which have been offset by moderating forecasts for the Analytica and Software segments.

The Add rating and target price of $0.16 are unchanged.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.02
If HRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -

Headline funds under management and administration (FuMA) were a miss to Credit Suisse's estimates by -5% but in-line post some adjustments. Compositionally, flows were weaker while market movements were ahead of the broker's estimates. 

Even so, the investment case for IOOF Holdings remains intact, reassures the broker, as there is significant demand for advice in Australia and consequently a large opportunity for firms like IOOF to deliver advice in a holistic, trusted and low-cost manner.

The Outperform rating and target price of $5 are maintained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $1.8
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 44.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as No Rating (-1) -

IOOF Holdings' December half-year outflows were larger than Morgan Stanley forecast and higher than the September quarter.

Outflows and pension payments of circa $1.4bn were seen in financial advice while investment management saw circa -$2.2bn outflows in cash. The financial impact of the exit of the BT platform is clearer, finds the broker.

Morgan Stanley is currently restricted on rating and target. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $3.20. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 44.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Buy (1) -

After the December quarter update, Ord Minnett notes funds under management (FUM) and fund flows in the quarter were slightly
weaker than expected on an underlying basis.

The broker highlights the revenue impact of the termination of the BT platform arrangement (loss of -$26m on a pre-tax annualised profit basis).

Buy rating retained. Price target is reduced to $4.10 from $4.15 after incorporating MLC earnings into forecasts.

Any revenue margin contraction on the MLC acquisition is more than offset by achieving 50% of the $150m of savings the company is targeting, explains the analyst.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.9
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 44.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

December quarter gold production at IGO’s Tropicana mine rose 5% to 112koz, which was 8% above Citi's estimate. This was due to Boston Shaker ramping up to 247kt versus 137kt in the September quarter.

The broker also considers Nova had a solid quarter, with management expecting to beat cost guidance on higher by-product pricing.

Upon the slated divestment of Tropicana, the analyst suggests the company offers a rare way to play the electric vehicle thematic.

Citi doesn't expect dividends until FY22.

The broker retains Neutral and increases the target price to $6.80 from $5.50.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.71 Difference: $0.09
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.76, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IGO as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

IGO's first half beat expectations in terms of operating income with earnings from the Nova project forming 70% of the total earnings. There will be no interim dividend while the broker assumes a final dividend of 6cps.  

The addition of Greenbushes to the portfolio is a differentiator, highlights Credit Suisse, and provides investors exposure to the world’s premier global hard rock lithium asset and downstream hydroxide production.

The broker views IGO as one of the leading battery materials investments but also considers, post-rally, its value looks full.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with the target rising to $6.40 from $6.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $6.71 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.76, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes IGO performed well in the December quarter with a strong operating performance at its Tropicana project and better costs at Nova operations. As a result, the first half operating income was 15% ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecast.

Guidance for the second half is mixed with Tropicana's production expected to be circa -21koz below Morgan Stanley's estimate while expecting a cost beat at Nova in-line with the broker.

Equal-weight. Target price is $5.45. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $6.71 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.76, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Iluka Resources' December quarter was better in terms of volume sold but realised pricing was below expectations, notes UBS, due to a large proportion of zircon in sales in the quarter. Net cash at the end of the quarter was $50m supported by lower capex and better working capital.

The synthetic rutile kiln will be idle for the next 3-6 months from February to reduce inventory as stocks remain at elevated levels with Ikula always having the option to bring it back online sooner if demand dictates.

UBS retains its Neutral rating with a target price of $5.90.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $6.61 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.11, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Energy's Bauna oil field in Brazil is performing in line with expectations but will decline ahead of well intervention later this year, the broker notes. Revenue was lower in the quarter but only because of the timing of shipments.

Reserve and resource estimates remain unchanged. The broker has cut its target to $1.35 from $1.36 and retains Outperform, citing Karoon as a key pick in the space along with Senex Energy.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.31
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Overweight (1) -

Karoon Energy announced its first production result as an oil producer out of South America. The company produced slightly above Morgan Stanley's assumption for the December 2020 quarter but sales volumes were slightly lower due to the timing of shipments.

The broker expects 2021 to be a transition year with production gradually declining over 2021 before increasing by late 2021-early 2022.

The broker stated any macro softness can be used to increase exposure to Karoon as the company has no debt and retains the most leverage to rising oil prices in the broker's coverage universe.

Overweight retained for Karoon Energy. Target unchanged at $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.26
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

The second quarter not only marks Karoon Energy's first sales result, but also according to Morgans completes the evolution from global explorer into mid-tier oil producer, following finalisation of the Bauna acquisition.

Post intervention of Bauna and development of Patola, the company expects to be producing 25-30kbopd in 2023 (in line with the broker's forecast). Kbopd is defined as a thousand barrels of oil per day.

Having already paid the US$50m deposit for Bauna, and US$150m upfront consideration, an estimated US$44m payment is set to be paid in May 2022. The remainder of the consideration is a series of annual contingent payments.

Morgans decreases the target price for Karoon Energy to $1.63 from $1.64 and the Add rating is unchanged. 

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.59
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

The North Face posted flat revenue growth in the December quarter, with solid online growth offsetting the decline in in-store sales, the broker notes. March quarter revenue is forecast to jump more than 20% but only from cycling the onset of covid last year.

North Face wholesale remains under pressure and the broker remains cautious on Kathmandu's overall wholesale, with Surf the weakest link. The broker is waiting to see whether stimulus makes FY21 earnings an anomaly, expecting a return to normal in FY22.

Neutral and $1.35 target retained.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.14
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.40, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MME as Add (1) -

After a second quarter trading update, Morgans notes the gross loan book growth was better than expected for MoneyMe.

The broker highlights record quarterly originations of $69m, with the gross loan book at $168m versus $138m at quarter one.

The analyst believes tailwinds will emanate from recently launched new products and loan book diversification. Additionally, a lower cost of funding will assist.

The Add rating is maintained and the target price is decreased to $1.93 from $1.95.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.44
If MME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Buy (1) -

Citi notes an improved December quarter for Newcrest Mining, with all operations except Red Chris posting higher gold production quarter-on-quarter.

The broker expects news flow over the next year or so should bring market confidence regarding the diversification of earnings and production.

Despite the company flagging a US$20-30m lift to covid management costs, FY21 guidance is maintained. 

Buy rated. Target falls to $31 from $32.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $25.33 Difference: $5.67
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.64, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

Newcrest Mining's December quarter was straightforward, observes Credit Suisse, with production higher than expected and Lihir delivering better numbers. 

The March quarter will likely deliver lower quarter on quarter production due to planned mill maintenance at Cadia and Lihir operations, suggests the broker, before ending the year with a stronger June quarter.

Costs will finish the year at mid-to-upper end of guidance, adds the broker. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $33.20 from $34.65.

Target price is $33.20 Current Price is $25.33 Difference: $7.87
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.64, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Solid production at Lihir drove a beat on Newcrest Mining's December quarter production but Lihir also contributed to higher costs, the broker notes. Cadia also set a record -- on costs.

Otherwise, the maiden resource announced for Havieron was a significant first step for the project, the broker suggests, with management targeting commercial production within three years. Neutral retained, target falls to $28 from $29.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $25.33 Difference: $2.67
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.64, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Group production was 2% better than Morgan Stanley's forecast. Where Cadia and Lihir operations outperformed, Red Chris floundered.

Costs were 20% higher than the broker's forecast led by Red Chris, Cadia and Lihir operations. Group production and cost guidance remain unchanged.

Overweight rating maintained with a target price of $33.40. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $33.40 Current Price is $25.33 Difference: $8.07
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.64, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Hold (3) -

The second quarter for Newcrest Mining was a big improvement over the first, observes Morgans, due to production returning to trend.

In addition, Cadia reported the second consecutive ‘record low cost’ quarter. First half production was in-line with the company’s annual guidance.

With its significant copper revenue stream, the company is well placed to benefit from increases in base metal pricing even as the gold price has softened, highlights the analyst.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target price is decreased to $27.87 from $29.96.

Target price is $27.87 Current Price is $25.33 Difference: $2.54
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.64, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -

Newcrest Mining delivered December-quarter production of 535,000oz of gold, which was 6% ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. Lower grades and -30,000oz lower sales than production at Lihir and Telfer were considered a drag on group all-in sustaining costs (AISC).

Cadia reinforced the adage “the best gold mines are copper mines” quotes the analyst, with -US$6/oz AISC.

The broker highlights less exposure to the rising Australian dollar and more leverage to improved copper prices than its Australian gold peers.

Delivery and the long-term outlook for Lihir remains a key catalyst for many investors, and hence the analyst looks forward to the upcoming mine-optimisation study, due on February 11.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price falls to $35.50 from $36.50.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $25.33 Difference: $10.17
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.64, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Newcrest Mining's December quarter report as broadly in-line with its expectations on production and underlying costs. Cost guidance was raised by US$30m on covid related items.

The broker thinks the market is not pricing in Newcrest’s key growth projects for which progress is being made.

The Golpu project has received environmental approval from the Papua New Guinea Government and if a special mining lease is granted, Newcrest will have three growth projects on which to potentially deploy its capital.

UBS maintains its Buy rating with the target declining to $32.50 from $35.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $25.33 Difference: $7.17
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.64, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Nickel Mines has announced a better than expected final dividend of 2c, taking the FY payout to 3c. The broker suggests ongoing fund repatriation is positive as it de-risks the business. Management has nevertheless declined to set a formal dividend policy going forward.

With the 80% Angel Mine acquisition set to double production over three years and nickel prices buoyant, the broker retains Outperform. Target unchanged at $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.26
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Orocobre's December quarter was ahead of UBS's estimates on production, sales and costs. Production of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 34%, up from 22% in the September quarter.

No production guidance was given for FY21 but Orocobre has guided to second-half production of US$5,500/t, less than the broker's US$5,681/t. 

Buy rating with the target rising to $6.50 from $4.90.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: $0.75
If ORE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Neutral (3) -

The completion of key ventilation infrastructure and the first stage of planned development activity at Savannah in the December quarter is critical, the broker suggests, allowing for the potential restart of mining in the second half 2021.

The sale of the Panton platinum project has helped close the funding gap for Panoramic Resources. Buoyant nickel prices imply upside risk to the broker's earnings forecasts. Neutral retained, target rises to 17c from 16c.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PGL as Neutral (3) -

Prospa Group's trading update suggests first half FY21 performance was slightly ahead of the broker's expectation. Revenue and costs beat, and impairments were ahead of expectations. Originations are growing, although average gross loans continued to decline.

The broker retains Neutral and an 87c target, suggesting the outlook requires originations to drive average gross loans growth, while maintaining yield, managing asset quality and controlling costs.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.04
If PGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PGL as Neutral (3) -

Prospa Group's December quarter update brings total originations to $180.7m in the first half, 55% ahead of UBS's estimate of $116.6m but -43% versus last year's $176.8m.

With $19.6m in October, $32.4 in November and $46.6m in December, there was strong month on month origination growth, indicating an improvement in end-market conditions, notes the broker. 

Overall, Prospa Group's update is ahead of UBS's expectations and displays better origination momentum and stable portfolio yields. The company noted a faster than anticipated recovery and highlighted increasing investment in R&D and sales and marketing.

First-half results will be reported on 25 February.

Neutral rating with a target price of $0.90.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.07
If PGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Despite strong December quarter shipments by Pilbara Minerals, Citi calculates the shares are still trading ahead of valuation.

The acquisition of the Altura project was completed on 20 January. The broker believes that Pilgangoora/Altura can support higher production, but management will likely only provide additional capacity when market conditions are supportive.

The analyst revises FY21 earnings (EBITDA) estimates to $22m from $11m, and to $83m from $67m for 2022. This is calculated after anticipating strong demand recovery for spodumene on a robust electric vehicle (EV) outlook.

Sell rating and target rises to $1 from $0.70.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting downside of -31.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PSQ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects Pacific Smiles Group to see the biggest rise in relevance across its coverage. Relevance, clarifies the broker, is measured by size x liquidity x performance.

After a strong first half trading update with two earnings upgrades, the market cap is almost 30% higher than it was in November 2020. The broker sees scope for a liquidity catalyst post the rally. 

The bottom line is Morgan Stanley expects the stock will be much larger and liquid in coming years.

The broker retains its Overweight rating with a target of $3. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.4
If PSQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

The broker has revised down its FY21-22 profit forecasts for Qantas to reflect a slower near-term domestic and international recovery based on border policy changes. Target nevertheless rises to $5.05 from $4.95 on a PE multiple basis.

The broker is comfortable with Qantas’ debt and liquidity position along with the ability to increase capacity as borders reopen including
winning market share. For now, the stock is seen trading at a fair price. Neutral retained.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.5
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates REA as Neutral (3) -

While Credit Suisse expects REA Group to be a beneficiary of the stamp duty reform in NSW, it is unlikely other states will follow suit with tax reform in the near term. 

REA has higher national exposure with only circa 40% of its residential depth revenue coming from NSW as opposed to circa 60% for Domain Holdings ((DHG)). The broker does not expect the company to see the same benefit from the removal of NSW stamp duty.

Neutral retained. Target is raised to $137.70 from $123.50.

Target price is $137.70 Current Price is $145.16 Difference: minus $7.46 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.42, suggesting downside of -14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Ramelius Resources' December quarter was solid, with a beat in sales offsetting higher costs. The miner has a solid track record compared to guidance, Macquarie notes, and a strong second half is expected.

Studies due for completion over 2021 have the potential to provide meaningful upside. On a valuation basis the broker upgrades to Outperform, retaining a $1.90 target.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: $0.42
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Resolute Mining's December quarter production, sales and costs were all within expectation. Despite industrial disruption at Syama, the company managed to produce a flat cash performance, the broker notes.

With 2021 set to be a deleveraging year, Syama performance is key going forward, the broker warns. The Tabokoroni underground resource looks promising, but as yet the broker has not included it in valuation. Outperform and $1.00 target retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.31
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SKT as Buy (1) -

In November 2020, Sky Network Television upgraded its operating income guidance range to $140m-$155m, in line with UBS's estimated $143m. UBS notes this guidance range indicated moderating decline in revenues with growth in direct satellite base, lower churn and cost savings

The broker notes the key challenge for the company will be to attract new customers. Sky plans to launch its new broadband service in early 2021 but any initial customer adds are expected to be modest.

Buy with a target rating of NZ$0.30.

Current Price is $0.15. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSM as Buy (1) -

Service stream has been awarded a 3+1+1 year contract with Telstra covering the provision of mobile design, construction and relocation of wireless infrastructure and fixed-line network infrastructure.

Ord Minnett had already incorporated this contract in its forecasts but still believes the announcement/confirmation is a positive.

Short term, the broker anticipates the 1H result will be "choppy", with operational earnings (EBITDA) forecast to be $37m, representing a 1H/2H split of 41%/59%.

Further out, it'll be all about new contract wins. Buy. Target $2.21.

Target price is $2.21 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.48
If SSM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

Upon first glance, it appears today's market update somewhat surprised in a negative sense with Ord Minnett indicating costs (marketing and staff) were higher than anticipated while operating cash flows were below expectations.

Somewhat funnily, in today's context, the company's omnichannel offering became available at Fortune 500 company GameStop during the final quarter of calendar 2020.

Target price $11.20. Rating Buy.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $8.27 Difference: $2.93
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Volpara Health Technologies posted a third quarter cashflow report in-line with the expectations of Morgans.

The broker’s key highlights included annual recurring revenue (ARR) up by NZ$0.8m and average revenue per user (ARPU) up 5% on last quarter.

An upcoming catalyst includes the FDA release mandating breast density reporting to patients in the US, notes the analyst.

The add rating is maintained and the target price is decreased to $1.70 from $1.71.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.21
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WSA as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Western Areas' December quarter production was -19% lower than Citi had expected, as unit cash costs were much higher than forecast.

Management guidance is for production to be at the lower end, and costs at the higher end.

The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target price reduced to $2.60 from $2.65, due to lowered expectations and adjustments for foreign exchange.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.14
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WSA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Western Areas posted December quarter nickel production -13% lower than Macquarie's forecast and costs 23% higher. Management still expects to achieve guidance at the bottom end of the range. The broker does not.

On a possible guidance miss and likely first half earnings loss, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $2.70 from $3.30.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.24
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WSA as Overweight (1) -

December quarter was weak for Western Areas with nickel production -13% below Morgan Stanley's forecast while cash costs were 12% higher than expected.  The company was beset with production issues at its Flying Fox and Spotted Quoll operations during the quarter.

Western Areas suggests the lower end of its production and cost guidance will be achieved with chances for guidance to be updated at the company's first-half results in February.

Target is $2.70. Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.24
If WSA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

Western Areas reported production of 3.5kt of nickel, -6% below UBS's estimate with costs 5% higher. Production guidance remains 17-19kt with costs between $3.50- $4/lb.

Looking at the results, the broker has cut its production forecast for FY21 to 16.5kt with costs higher at $4.14/lb. The result highlighted that performance is becoming difficult to sustain as mines at Flying Fox and Spotted Quoll near the end of their lives, adds UBS.

Neutral rating with a target price of $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.04
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XRO as Neutral (3) -

A transfer of coverage to a new analyst leads to a 19% target price increase for Xero to $140 on stronger revenue growth driving higher long term earnings beyond the broker's short term forecast period, as well as a lower capital cost assumption.

However with limited near term catalysts and trading on a premium to peers, the broker retains Neutral.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $132.01 Difference: $7.99
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $108.17, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources