Daily FNArena News - Commodities

Analysts are increasingly confident 2014 will be the year of the first reactor restarts in Japan, and expect the uranium price response to be swift and significant.

Brokers advise caution on picking gold stocks, while zinc and lead markets are tight, oil supply is expected to strengthen and China puts the pincers on fertiliser policy.

A quiet end-of-year mood has sunk in for buyers and sellers of yellowcake, reports industry consultant TradeTech.

US Fed policy a key feature for the 2014 commodities outlook but nickel, aluminium and gold are seen as subdued, while JP Morgan thinks US shale oil could still change the game in crude.

Hot on the heels of Goldman Sachs’ exit, Deutsche Bank is now set to pull out of uranium trading, increasing market uncertainty and affecting a spot price fall.

As Indonesia plans a ban on mineral ore exports, brokers consider two key ores – nickel and bauxite – and the impact on Australia’s suppliers.

Jonathan Barratt of Barratt’s Bulletin suggests US$1170/oz is the last level of support for gold which may be tested before a recovery can be established.

Iron ore supply/demand diverges, thermal coal gets some support and a conundrum in copper. Zircon, titanium dioxide pricing still soft.

The uranium sport price fell back slightly last week but the mid-term price indicator has risen on increased activity.

Global economic growth is likely to be driven by developed markets next year. Analysts sum up the outlook for industrial metals, coal and fertilisers as subdued.