The latest batch of economic data releases have kept hopes alive China might be on the road to economic recovery.
In the view of Standard Chartered the latest fiscal stimulus package announced in Japan shuold boost growth but it will require an easing in monetary policy by the BoJ to be most effective.
Westpac believes China might eventually achieve its 8% growth target, but more likely in H2 2010 than this year.
According to Bank of Finland even the fiscal stimulus package won’t be enough to lift Chinese GDP above 5% this year.
There’s a constant caveat when discussing China’s economy, official data are questionable, which is why Google searches are able to offer some valuable insight.
China’s trade surplus may be spiralling out of control, but Standard Chartered think China’s external imbalance will actually improve.
A promise from China’s Premier Wen Jiabao to maintain 8% GDP growth was well received, but a lack of detail meant the benefit was fleeting.
January data showed an improvement on some Asian economic indicators but according to ANZ Bank it remains too early to call a recovery.
The Chinese economy should recover later this year as the government’s stimulus package impacts and as G3 economies also improve.
Asian governments have been active in introducing policy measures to deal with the economic downturn but investors should expect more will be done as the crisis continues.