Bonds/Interest Rates

UBS economists have taken a sample set of the figures that will make up the second quarter CPI, and it doesn’t look that promising.

June Job Ads data was stronger than expected, leading ANZ Bank to suggest unemployment could fall below 4.0% by the end of the year.

US employment data released on Friday was taken as a positive by Wall Street. This week sees local data released which should have a bearing on the RBA’s August rate decision.

It was happening all over the world last night.

A prominent US hedge fund has suspended redemptions and an Italian bank is in trouble.

The US sub-prime mortgage scare appears to have petered out. But that’s only because it takes ratings agencies a long time to reassess, and mortgage delinquencies a long time to crystallise, and hedge fund traders are able to “mark to model”.

Dwelling approvals throughout Australia fell a lot more than expected in May while retail sales were down when expected to be up.

Strong economic data overnight put paid to interest rate rise fears allowing the Dow to rally but causing the US dollar to fall. The Aussie is now testing US$0.86.

Rate decisions are made by the RBA, BOE and ECB this week while the US anticipates employment numbers following a very volatile Friday night session.

Weekly musings from your editor. This week’s story revolves around the end of an era. Of low bond yields.