China and Emerging Markets

A new record for oil, a near record for copper, and a big move in aluminium were highlights in a session that saw the Dow down 49.

Shares in BHP jumped 5% in offshore markets last night following speculation China is looking to move on BHP. The Dow closed down 36 points.

Revisiting the bullish story for aluminium.

It is generally considered China has an almost endless supply of rural workers willing to move to the cities but a recent academic study suggests this is not the case.

There were two casualties of war on Wall Street on Friday – the truth, and Bear Stearns. Dow down 194. Gold over US$1001/oz.

It was down, up, and down again on Wall Street to only a small rise while the numbers 111 and 1000 made their debuts.

As expected bad weather conditions have impacted on CLSA’s monthly China Purchasing Managers’ Index.

On February 27, 2007, Wall Street collapsed in response to the Shanghai Surprise – a response that alerted the world to something called “subprime”.

As global economic growth forecasts fall, and commodities indices rise, it would seem the world is facing the crippling spectre of stagflation.

Even allowing for the impact of recent bad weather DBS Group notes inflationary pressures are becoming the biggest threat for Chinese policy makers, so no change to tighter monetary policy is expected.