Tag Archives: Currencies

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Mixed Messages

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 18 points or 0.1% while the S&P was flat at 2170 and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%.

Holding On

Yesterday’s weakness on the local market was all about the resource sectors, which in turn is all about Fed policy. Lower commodity prices ensured both energy and materials fell 1.7% although in the case of materials, we have to count back the effect of BHP Billiton ((BHP)) going ex.

Having had a solid run from the Brexit rebound on better than expected commodity prices, the resource sector names have now suffered an investor exit. While demand/supply fundamentals still underpin – oil being the obvious case in point – commodity prices have over that period been supported by the assumption the Fed would not be raising its cash rate in September and perhaps not in December either.

Now that assumption has reversed, the US dollar has thus risen, and dollar-denominated commodity prices have come under mathematical pressure. We note also the next worst performing sector on the local market yesterday was utilities, down 0.5%, which suffers via the the Australia-US interest rate differential.

Elsewhere, sector moves were mixed and less dramatic. It is notable that the ASX200 was down 32 points late morning before turning around to come back almost to square mid-afternoon, ahead of a final drift-off. At its nadir the index hit 5405 and technically, 5400 is the support line.

Whereas the month of August was dominated by individual stock moves during results season, September has opened with a return to the macro influence of economic data. Australia’s data releases were quite mixed.

The mass media were calling the June quarter private capital expenditure result (-5.4%) another shocker – sky’s falling and all of that – but indeed quite the opposite is true. We know that resource sector spending is continuing to fall as mining investment exits its boom and LNG projects reach completion. But the fall in June quarter “mining” spending was actually not as great as forecast.

We are looking to non-mining spending to carry the can and indeed it rose during the quarter. The other important element of yesterday’s capex data is capex intentions, and here we saw an upgrade to FY17 spending intentions. The June quarter represents the third estimate, and things are heading in the right direction.

We know that the decline in “mining” spending will soon exhaust itself. While it won’t reverse, it will stop dragging down the net numbers, It’s then up to non-mining to drive economic growth. Here, a lot depends on just how sharply the housing boom cools off, and on the positive side, just how helpful other sectors can be, for example, inbound tourism.

Because Australian consumers are not exactly doing their bit at the moment. Retail sales growth was flat in July when 0.3% growth was forecast. Following only 0.1% gains in both May and June, annual sales growth has fallen to a tepid 2.7%.

Aside from being a reflection of stiff retail competition (down, down etc) in dollar terms, weak sales growth is a reflection of just how misleading the current unemployment rate is. The ongoing increase in part time jobs at the expense of full-time jobs – both counted equally as a “job” in the official unemployment rate number – is resulting in weak wages growth and subsequently, weak consumption.

What is the RBA to do? The capex data were pleasing but the sales data were not. And Sydney/Melbourne house prices continued to rise in July despite assumptions a peak must surely soon be reached. Having staved off concerns over a housing investment bubble via stricter lending standards, the RBA is now faced with owner-occupiers piling in to fill the gap. These O-Os, as they’re called, are more likely to stretch their budgets to accommodate a hefty mortgage than investors who at least pick up rent, and negative gearing.

Can the RBA afford to cut rates again?

The central bank can probably afford to ignore yesterday’s Australian manufacturing PMI for August which indicated a collapse into contraction at 46.9, down from 55.4. I’ve said this before, but it seems very strange that every other economy on the planet manages to only ever post incremental monthly PMI changes but Australia’s manufacturing PMI leaps all about the place like a cricket on steroids. Maybe it’s because Australia’s manufacturing sector is so tiny, or it’s just too small a sample, but either way, credibility is lacking.

It’s a different story in China, albeit there are other doubts about the value of Beijing’s data. Beijing’s official manufacturing PMI sparked all sorts of excitement yesterday by rising back to 50.4 from 49.9 in July. Big whoop. Aside from Caixin’s equivalent falling to 50.0 from 50.6, Beijing is trying to shift away from being an export economy. Beijing’s service sector PMI fell to 53.5 from 53.9.

And that’s more concerning.

PMI Plunge

Japan’s manufacturing sector managed to slow its pace of decline in August. The PMI rose to 49.5 from 49.3, but Japan is totally reliant on exports so it’s hardly a good result. The eurozone equivalent slipped to 51.7 from 52.0 which we might say was all about Brexit but if it is, the Poms have clearly made the right decision.

The UK PMI shocked everyone in rebounding to 53.3 from 48.8.

The US equivalent, on the other hand, fell to 49.4 from 52.6, when economists had forecast 52.0.

On this news, early in the session on Wall Street, the US dollar index plunged 0.4% and stayed there. The Dow plunged a hundred points. But hang on, if the Fed is data-dependent then surely here is clear evidence a rate rise is not a good idea. Subsequently, the US stock indices rallied back again.

It’s just what we need – more confusion over what the Fed might do this month. And tonight we have the jobs report.

In the meantime, last night represented the 39th consecutive session in which the neither the Dow nor S&P has moved more than 1%.

Commodities

The US dollar index is down 0.4% at 95.64 on the assumption a September rate rise is by no means a given, if indeed it ever was. This is good for commodity prices.

All base metals moved to the upside in London, with lead, nickel and zinc each rising more than 1%.

Gold rose US$5.10 to US$1313.60/oz.

Iron ore dropped US60c to US$58.40/t but as I often note, iron ore does its own thing. But clearly no one told the oil market a weaker greenback is a good thing.

West Texas crude has lost another 3%, down US$1.30 at US$43.53/bbl. Once 45 was breached it was going to take more than Fed policy to calm the nerves.

The Aussie has matched the greenback’s fall in rising 0.4% to US$0.7550.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 12 points.

US jobs tonight, which is about all that really matters, but note that S&P/ASX will announce pending index component changes today before they become effective in two weeks.

And Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) goes ex.

Rudi will Skype-link with Sky Business to discuss broker calls at around 11.05am.
 

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(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Under Pressure

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 53 points or 0.3% while the S&P lost 0.2% to 2170 and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%.

Fed Fear

Welcome to September, historically the worst month of the year for stocks. Indeed, over the hundred year history of the Dow, only one month of the year has averaged a loss, and that is September.

But it’s just an average.

The last day of the local earnings season ended with a bit of a whimper. There were not that many companies left to report but it’s the first time in the last three weeks there have not been some significant up/down moves in reporting stocks to highlight.

There were still some moves – Harvey Norman ((HVN)) rose 2.7%, Independence Group ((IGO)) fell 3.7%, Adelaide Brighton ((ABC)) fell 4.2% -- but nothing in the teens or worse as we have seen often this season.

It was otherwise a weak session, on a beta rather than alpha basis. Late morning the ASX200 was down 66 points and it was looking like the market was set to book a real shocker, with technical selling backing up fundamental nerves. Chartists have been calling the market lower if the index failed to hold above 5500, which it hasn’t.

Some buying came in to stabilise things through the afternoon but across the sectors, ultimate weakness can very much be put down to Fed fears. As we entered the August result season, the assumption was the Fed was no chance of raising in September and possibly not in December either. As we exited the result season, there now is a very real chance the Fed could hike this month and maybe even in December as well.

Even if the Fed funds futures are still only pricing in around a 33% chance of a September hike, it pays to be safe. And for many an Australian company impacted by US interest rates, there’s a lot of premium to give back.

A Fed rate hike means a stronger US dollar and that means weaker commodity prices, particularly gold. Gold has drifted down since Jackson Hole but not yet tanked. It is nevertheless hard to find any Australian gold stock with a Buy rating from a stock analyst. Result season featured many a solid operational result from the goldminers, but a consistent call of overvaluation from analysts, even on a bullish gold price forecast.

Result season featured many a strong result from defensive yield-payers in the market, but again, Buy ratings were very hard to find. REITs in particular have drawn a lot of overvaluation calls. If the US rate rises the value of Australian yield stocks to offshore investors slips slightly, and many are carrying premiums.

Then we have the double-whammy stocks. They include resource sector names paying solid dividends, such as the Big Two miners and a couple of Big Gas names, and they include yield stocks with direct US exposure, which would lose out on both the currency translation and the interest rate differential.

Yesterday saw materials lead the market down with a 2.4% drop, backed up by energy with 1.1%. Utilities lost 1.0% and defensive consumer staples 1.3%. The banks and telcos were also sold, but hung in there with only 0.4% drops.

We may only have to wait until tomorrow night to decide whether there will indeed be a Fed rate hike this month. If the US jobs report comes in as anything other than very bad, Wall Street is going to start to lock a rate rise in. Unfortunately the FOMC decision will not be announced until September 22, so we’ll have to suffer three weeks of tedious Fed speculation.

On a brighter note, yesterday’s release of local July sector credit numbers showed steady, if not surging, credit demand.

In annual growth rate terms, overall credit is up 6.0%, down from 6.2% in June. Total housing credit growth has slipped to 6.6% from 6.7% (and 7.5% a year ago) because investor loan growth has fallen to 4.8% from 5.0% in June and double-digits in the first three quarters of 2015. Owner-occupier loan growth has slipped to 7.6% from 7.7% but June marked the highest rate in six years. At 6.2%, business loan growth is up from 4.9% a year ago.

Not shooting the lights out, but enough to be comfortable with.

Weak Close

After five consecutive months of rallies, August saw the Dow close lower, having featured fresh all-time highs mid-month.

All talk on Wall Street is, of course, about the Fed, and specifically about tomorrow night’s jobs report and just what it might imply. The current forecast is for 185,000 new jobs and that is considered enough to keep the Fed talking rate rise.

Last night the ADP private sector report showed 175,000 new jobs created in August, in line with non-farm payroll predictions.

As we have witnessed this year, US jobs reports can be extremely volatile and often their veracity is questioned, particularly given large revisions are common in subsequent months. But again, Wall Street is looking at being safe rather than sorry.

With pressure on commodity prices it didn’t help that the weekly US oil inventory numbers showed a greater than expected build in crude and a lesser than expected drawdown of gasoline. The US dollar index was flat last night at 96.02 but risk is to the upside and thus commodity price risk is to the downside. Oil prices fell 3%.

Fedheads were also out and about again pursuing their favourite pastime of trying to confuse Wall Street into submission. The bottom line is two spoke with dovish tones and one with hawkish tones but of the three, only the hawk is an FOMC voting member.

US stock markets thus continued their modest correction. There is no great expectation a September rate rise would unleash a major plunge – most agree 25 basis points is neither here nor there and everyone would just like to settle the matter one way or the other – but September is the month of volatility so the jitters, at least, may run through the markets.

Tonight will probably be a quiet one on Wall Street ahead of the jobs report, but that is never certain.

Commodities

West Texas crude is down US$1.43 at US$44.83/bbl.

The build-up of commodity price fear is being reflected in mining stocks but metal prices have not exactly buckled. Last night saw aluminium fall 1% but lead rise 1.5% and the other base metal were little moved.

Iron ore is unchanged at US$59.00/t.

Gold is down US$2.00 at US$1308.50/oz.

The Aussie is up 0.1% at US$0.7520.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 19 points or 0.4%. Aside from current momentum to the downside, and technical weakness, the energy sector will be under pressure today.

It’s the first of the month so across the globe, including in Australia and the US, manufacturing PMIs will be released. China will release both its manufacturing PMI and service sector PMI.

In Australia we’ll also see August house prices and June quarter private sector capex, the latter being one of the RBA’s most closely watched data sets.

No more earnings reports. Woohoo! But do be reminded we are now very much into that which comes after – the ex-dividend season. Among those stocks going ex today is BHP Billiton ((BHP)).
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Still Fisching

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 48 points or 0.3% while the S&P lost 0.2% to 2176 and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%.

Surf’s Down

SurfStich ((SRF)) floated not quite two years ago at a dollar, hit two dollars at the beginning of this year, and proceeded to step-jump down on a series of profit warnings before losing half its value yesterday in one fell swoop, to now be trading at ten cents. Echoes of another well-known surf wear company.

It doesn’t pay to miss guidance in this market.

The bigger story yesterday on the local market was a case of another one bites the dust. Gateway Lifestyle ((GTY)) became another member of the fledgling residential aged care sub-sector to disappoint with its result, sending its shares down 13%. Having already dropped 17% the day before for the same reason, peer Estia Health ((EHE)) copped another 15% beating, while Japara Healthcare ((JHC)) and Regis Healthcare ((REG)) rounded out the sub-sector whitewash with 3.5% falls.

It was a great story – ageing population, lack of affordable housing, longer time spent in retirement – and initially analysts were very keen on these names. That is until share prices started to run ahead of value. It’s still a great story, but not at any price.

It was left to healthcare stalwart Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) to right the sector ship, rising 8% on a strong result despite having already rallied 34% from its February low. Hospitals are safer than retirement villages it would seem.

It’s been a difficult year for financier FlexiGroup ((FXL)) but a good result saw its shares up 8%. The winner on the day was nevertheless naval boat builder Austal ((ASB)), which had a torrid year and having popped 13% on its result on Tuesday, kicked another 14% yesterday.

Beyond yesterday’s round of alpha moves was the underlying beta story of an ASX200 trying to get back to 5500 on a strong lead from Wall Street. It did, for a heartbeat on the open, before drifting back again all day. Sector moves were mixed and showed little coherence.

Today is effectively the last day of the result season. From here on it’s mostly penny dreadfuls reporting before we hit a few out-of-cycle larger name reporters next month. Then it will be back to focusing on the macro, which simply means central bank watching.

United We Stand

There’s a photo doing the rounds that has Wall Street’s attention. It shows the three top-end Fedheads – chair Janet Yellen, vice chair Stanley Fischer and New York Fed president William Dudley -- sharing a drink and a joke before a backdrop of Wyoming pasture at Jackson Hole. A typical happy snap from one of those annoying photographers ever present at conference drinkies?

No, say commentators. It represents a staged attempt to convey unity. And therefore it is an implicit indication that what Stanley Fischer said on Friday about the possibility of two rates hikes, and his suggestion that Janet Yellen’s speech backed up this possibility, is real. Fischer spoke again last night, effectively reiterating his comments by suggesting it is impossible to say the next Fed rate hike would be “one and done”.

Markets are beginning to pay attention. The US dollar index jumped another 0.5% to 96.05 last night and, finally, gold responded, falling US$12.70 to US$1310.50/oz. Only the bond market remains unconvinced, with the ten-year yield unmoved at 1.57%.

For stock markets it’s really a case of “25 basis points, so what?” Wall Street has had all year to prepare for this minor tightening that’s never come. But maybe 50 basis points might be a different story. The biggest movers up over 2016 have been the US yield stocks, particularly utilities and telcos.

And tomorrow is September – historically the worst month of the year for stocks. The next FOMC decision will be released on September 22 and being a quarterly meeting, will also feature a press conference from Janet Yellen. These relatively new press conferences are seen as the perfect opportunity to make a policy change and then explain it. If Friday night’s US jobs report is a biggie, things could get interesting.

But it wasn’t really the Fed that spooked Wall Street into some mild selling last night, again on negligible volume. The biggest influence was the US$14.5bn tax battle between Apple, Ireland and EU. Apple shares fell and dragged down other Big Tech names as tax fears flooded Silicon Valley.

Then there was that US dollar jump, which sent commodity prices south and thus prompted falls in the energy and material sectors.

Commodities

West Texas crude is down US69c at US$46.26/bbl.

Base metal traders had their first real chance to respond to Jackson Hole last night given the LME was closed on Monday night, but price falls were relatively mild.

Iron ore rose US20c to US$59.00/t.

It was left to gold to post the bigger fall.

The Aussie is pleasingly down 0.8% to US$0.7510 on greenback strength.

Today

Those US resource sector falls will likely flow over into the local market today, with the Big Two miners being sold heavily overnight. However, the SPI Overnight closed up 6 points.

Private sector credit data for July are due locally today while the ADP private sector jobs report in the US will provide a precursor for Friday’s non-farm payrolls.

The results season wraps up today with last hurrah reports from Adelaide Brighton ((ABC)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Independence Group ((IGO)) among a handful of others.

Rudi's weekly appearance on Sky Business has been pulled forward by 24 hours. Watch him on the channel today, 12.30-2.30pm.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Confusion Reigns

By Greg Peel

Breakdown

The ASX200 opened weaker yesterday and once 5500 was breached, technical selling was swiftly triggered. It is the first big macro move the local market has seen since the beginning of August. Yesterday had little to do with the final throes of result season.

Initial weakness was all about the Fed. The wash-up from the Jackson Hole symposium is that there will be a rate rise in 2016, maybe even two. Or at least, that’s what the Fed wants markets to believe. Reality may yet be quite different.

The Australian market is very much yield-based and thus attractive to investors from low interest rate economies. Even the big-cap resource companies are major dividend payers. Each incremental move up in US interest rates reduces the US-Australia interest rate differential gap, making Australian yield stocks incrementally less attractive.

Beyond this macro theme, we could say it was a case of a market that hasn’t been able to go up for a month, so it had to go down. Patience ran out. On balance, the earnings result season has been seen as a positive one, featuring a solid net gain in earnings if we take out BHP Billiton. Yet all month the index has struggled to move much above 5550, frustrating investors. Time to sell and regroup.

There were still some notable individual stock stories among those reporting yesterday.

When you’re in a hot new sub-sector, you can’t afford to miss guidance. Residential aged care provider Estia Health ((EHE)) found this out the hard way yesterday and dropped 17%. Peers Gateway Lifestyle Group ((GTY)) and Japara Healthcare ((JHC)) were dragged down in the wash, falling 4% and 6% respectively.

On the other side of the ledger, naval boat builder Austal ((ASB)) has had a torrid 2016 so a good result for that company saw the stock up 13%. It’s been a very up and down year for biotech Mesoblast ((MSB)), which is not surprising given the stock is basically a binary bet on stem cell technology. It jumped 8%.

Another big loser was popular gold stock Evolution Mining ((EVN)), but a 9% plunge was all about a dilutive rights issue.

Outside of these individual moves, the selling on the day was market-wide. Interestingly, the only sector to finish in the green yesterday, slightly, was telcos, despite Telstra ((TLS)) being the daddy of all yield stocks.

Is the Fed really going to hike? That is the question upon which there is no agreement.

Each Way Bet

On further contemplation, Wall Street has decided that what Janet Yellen said at Jackson Hole on Friday night was no different to what she’s being saying for months. For months she’s been saying a rate rise is possible and yet one never comes.

It was Stanley Fischer who threw the spanner in the works by suggesting not only is there likely to be a rate rise before year-end, there could well be two, and that Janet Yellen’s speech corroborates such an assumption. On that basis, Wall Street is now primed for this Friday night’s jobs report which, if solid, could signal the rate rise in September no one was expecting last week.

Yet still there are those scoffing at the suggestion there could be any rate hike in 2016.

If Brexit fears killed off the possibility in June, and July was too early to be safe the Brexit shrug-off would last, then November is clearly not a possibility as it is right before the presidential election, and that may well also rule out September in the run-up to the election. That just leaves December, until some other excuse comes along.

It will, of course, come down to the data, or so the Fed keeps telling us despite seemingly paying no attention to any numbers. Last night’s data release showed US personal consumption rose 0.3% in July as expected and incomes rose 0.4%.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, personal consumption & expenditure (PCE), was flat on the headline and up 0.1% on the core. Annually, headline inflation was up 0.8% (still carrying the oil price drop) and core inflation was up 1.6%, still well shy of the Fed’s 2% target.

Recently the Fed has been contemplating whether 2% is really the right target to have. Bottom line, there was nothing in last night’s data to settle any rate rise dispute.

Last night investors piled into US banks. Why? Because they benefit from rising rates. Two days to think about it, and US stock markets have decided yes, there will be a rate rise.

Last night saw the US ten-year yield fall 7 basis points to 1.57%, having risen 6bps on Friday night in response to Jackson Hole. Friday night’s knee-jerk reaction probably reflected just how long everyone is in the bond market. Last night’s move suggests the bond market has decided nah, there’s not going to be a rate rise.

Take your pick. Gold has still not moved, in either direction, and that’s usually where nerves are on display.

When it was all said and done, the Dow rallied a hundred points on one of the lowest volume days of the year. It’s the last week of the summer holidays and Friday night’s jobs report be likely be critical, so what bother playing?

Commodities

West Texas crude is down US34c at US$46.95/bbl.

It was August bank Holiday in the UK last night, so the London Metals Exchange was closed.

Iron ore fell US30c to US$58.80/t.

Gold is up US$2.70 at US$1323.20/oz.

Having shot up on Friday night, the US dollar index is up 0.1% at 95.58. The Aussie is up 0.2% at US$0.7573.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 18 points or 0.3%. Can 5500 be regained on Wall Street strength?

Locally we’ll see building approvals numbers today. The US will see house prices and consumer confidence tonight.

Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) is the big name reporting today while FlexiGroup ((FXL)) and Slater & Gordon ((SGH)) should provide some interest, among others.

Rudi will Skype-link with Sky Business at around 11.15am to discuss broker calls.


All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Monday Report

Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead.

By Greg Peel

Testing Support

For the last three weeks, which have been dominated by result season, the ASX200 has traded largely sideways. On a couple of occasions the index has had a good look at the 5500 support level on the downside but quickly recovered back into the range.

After two consecutive sessions on the weaker side, the index is now sitting at 5515 with the futures showing down 4 points this morning, suggesting, today’s earnings reports notwithstanding, that 5500 level is chance of coming into play. A breach would be short- term bearish.

The 26 point fall for the index on Friday was mostly to do with the banks. Over the last couple of weeks the big banks have seen some buying, despite three of them not participating in the August round of August reports, and late last week they were sold again, taking the financials index down 0.8% on Friday. Investors possibly decided it best to take profits in case Janet Yellen confirmed a rate hike at Jackson Hole on Friday night.

Yet we didn’t see the same reaction in the other yield sectors, with utilities flat and telcos actually the best performer on the day, rising 0.7%. Meanwhile, industrials posted the biggest percentage fall of the session in dropping 1.0%.

Among the stocks reporting on Friday, the biggest winner was Super Retail ((SUL)) with a 6% jump while Coca-Cola Amatil ((CCL)) featured on the downside with a 4% fall and Select Harvests ((SHV)) was the biggest loser on the day with a 7% drop. Otherwise, the tables of biggest gainers and decliners were dominated by moves in stocks that had already reported over the week.

It reminds us that reporting season is not just a one day picnic for reporting companies.

With 250 of the 300-odd August reporting stocks covered by FNArena database brokers now having reported, it is notable that the percentage of beats (on FNArena’s assessment) has slipped back to 31% from having run at a consistent 36% ahead of last week. Misses remain fairly stable on 25%.

We also note that recommendation upgrades from brokers have made up a little bit of ground against downgrades, with the up/down ratio slipping to 1.7 from above 2.0 a week ago.

There are three more days to go in the season, but we are very much in wind-down mode such that the volume of companies reporting drops way down from the dramatic peaks of late last week. We’ve also seen almost all of the bigger names now done and dusted.

As the week progresses, economic data will again begin to take centre stage.

Fisching

Fed chair Janet Yellen declared in Jackson Hole on Friday night the case for a Fed rate hike is “strengthening”. As such, a move to normalisation would be “appropriate” but any move would be “gradual” and, of course, dependent on the data.

Wall Street yawned. Nothing new here, as expected. There might be a rate hike in December. But then…

Speaking in a TV interview following Yellen’s speech, Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer suggested Yellen’s remarks were consistent with the chance of two rate hikes this year, in September and December.

Nobody saw that coming. In response, the US dollar index shot up 0.8% and the US ten-year bond yield jumped 6 basis points to 1.63%, leaving behind the range in the 1.50s it’s held for about a month. The Dow closed down 53 points or 0.3% and the S&P -0.2% to 2169 while the Nasdaq rose 0.1%.

Not that anyone really believes Stanley Fischer. The prevailing view is that it’s better to talk up a rate hike to ensure Wall Street is prepared for one when it comes, even if that’s not until December. There remains a lot of talk in the market about there not being a rate hike in 2016 at all, and that’s even the view of at least one rogue FOMC member.

But it’s jobs week in the US this week. On the strength of Fischer’s comments, if Friday night’s non-farm payroll number proves to be a solid or better than expected result, Wall Street will likely prepare for a September rate hike just in case.

Interestingly, Fischer’s comments were also made in the context of the first revision of US June quarter GDP, released on Friday night, which showed a dip to 1.1% from an initial 1.2% estimate. If the Fed is data-dependent… But in the same interview, Fischer dismissed the June quarter GDP as being too long ago to be relevant.

Commodities

An 0.8% jump in the US dollar index to 95.48 was always going to be a big headwind for commodity prices on Friday night, and the prospect of two rate hikes a more medium term breeze. But as it was, commodity prices fell by very little.

West Texas crude fell US9c to US$47.29/bbl.

Base metal prices were mostly weaker, but not by much.

Iron ore did fall US$2.00 to US$59.10/t, but iron ore tends to play its own game.

The interesting one is gold, which only fell a dollar to US$1320.50/oz. By rights it should have fallen a lot more, but watch gold tonight. It has a habit of waiting an extra day to respond.

The Aussie’s fall of 0.7% to US$0.7560 matched the greenback’s gain.

The SPI Overnight closed down 4 points on Saturday morning.

The Week Ahead

It will be a big week in the US for a data dependent Fed.

Tonight sees personal income & spending, and the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation. Tuesday it’s house prices and consumer confidence, Wednesday the Chicago PMI, pending home sales and the private sector jobs report, and Thursday sees construction spending, chain store sales, vehicle sales and the manufacturing PMI.

Friday it’s that all-important jobs number, alongside factory orders and trade. There follows the Labor Day long weekend in the US, unofficially signalling the end of the summer holidays.

Thursday is the first of the month so it’s manufacturing PMI day across the globe, as well as both manufacturing and the services PMI from China.

In Australia we’ll see building approvals tomorrow and private sector credit On Wednesday. On Thursday, June quarter private sector capex will have the RBA’s attention alongside retail sales, house prices and the manufacturing PMI.

On Friday S&P/ASX will announce pending quarterly changes to the components of the ASX200 and other indices, ahead of the changes becoming effective two weeks hence.

In the last three days of result season, numbers are due from the likes of Beach Energy ((BPT)), Macquarie Atlas ((MQA)), Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) and Adelaide Brighton ((ABC)) amidst many more small names.

Investors should otherwise be aware we will now hit a heavy period of stocks going ex-dividend, and that index handicap will extend all the way through September.

Wesfarmers ((WES)) and Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) will go ex today and BHP Billiton ((BHP)) on Thursday, alongside many more this week.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business on Tuesday morning 11.15am, via Skype-link, to discuss broker calls. He'll re-appear on Thursday between 12.30pm-2.30pm and again on Friday, via Skype-link, at around 11.05am.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

For further global economic release dates and local company events please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: All Eyes On The Hole

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 33 points or 0.2% while the S&P lost 0.1% to 2172 and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%.

Another Mixed Bag

A fall of 21 points represents one of the big moves for the ASX200 over the course of this result season but the market started with a handicap yesterday of lower oil and metals prices. The banks also saw some selling after having been bought up this week. Outside of these influences, it was another familiar day of sharp moves both up and down amongst the day’s individual earnings reporters.

The biggest sector fall on the day was registered by the smallest of all sectors, info tech. It fell 2.0% thanks to a miss from accounting software company MYOB ((MYO)) and a subsequent 10% share price drop.

The biggest move up was registered by consumer staples. It rose 2.4% thanks to a 4% gain for big cap Woolworths ((WOW)). Woolies actually missed consensus but did show signs of some sales improvement, which was enough to worry the many shorters of the stock. Woolies is the most heavily shorted Top 20 stock by a margin.

Western Areas ((WSA)) picked a bad day to disappoint given nickel prices were also down 3% overnight. The stock has flown these past months on the nickel price recovery and thus fell 13% yesterday. The biggest fall was reserved for oil explorer AWE ((AWE)), down 15%.

Education provider 3P Learning ((3PL)) has been sold down all year so a beat was worth a 15% pop, while Southern Cross Media ((SXL)) has traded sideways all year but jumped 12%.

Other notable moves among the big boys were a 4% gain for perpetual performer Amcor ((AMC)) and a 4% gain for underperformer Perpetual ((PPT)).

No macro themes amongst the results, and no sector themes either. Although we should acknowledge a sector theme that has been emerging all year and has perhaps now caught the attention of those who hadn’t been paying much up to now. Software is the new black.

Discounting MYOB, which has been around for as long as we’ve all had to do a BAS, we note two stocks that took off on their results on Wednesday kicked on with it yesterday. Altium ((ALU)) gained another 8% and iSentia ((ISD)) 5%.

Watch the weather, it’s clouding over.

Tell us about it Janet

Wall Street is setting itself up for disappointment, and knows it.

Tonight Fed chair Janet Yellen will deliver a prepared speech on the subject of the policy tools available to central banks and whether or not they remain relevant in today’s world. She is not there to make a policy commitment. The Jackson Hole symposium is academic in nature. It’s not an FOMC meeting.

The problem is former chair Ben Bernanke used Jackson Hole as means of flagging major, experimental policy changes to give markets a heads-up and to dampen volatility. A rate hike is not QE. The fact that Janet Yellen is attending the symposium this year when she doesn’t have to, and didn’t in her first year, has led Wall Street to believe she’s there to make a definitive statement on interest rates.

Yet no one really believes she will actually do so.

If she says nothing, or simply bangs out the same old line, there will be much frustration. There was much frustration last night when two Fedheads individually popped up to support a rate rise sooner rather than later. They are known hawks, and the market just really wishes Fedheads would just shut the hell up. They are part of the problem, not the solution.

The Fed is data-dependent, it so it endlessly tells us. Last night’s data released showed that having fallen for the prior two months, durable goods orders rebounded a better than expected 4.4%. Okay then, let’s have a rate rise.

The feeling now on Wall Street is that the Fed won’t raise in September, but will raise in December, simply because it’s been telling us all year that rate rises are planned and December’s the Last Chance Hotel. If not, they will look like idiots, if they don’t already.

On a side note, there was much hope in the wake of the Brexit rebound and reasonable data out of Europe lately that the closely watched German IFO survey of business sentiment would show improvement this month. Instead the index fell to 106.2 from 108.3, which is considered a sharp drop.

Commodities

West Texas crude bounced back last night, up US58c to US$47.38/bbl.

Other than a 1% gain for zinc, base metal prices barely moved.

Currency played its part. The US dollar index was unmoved at 94.73 and ditto the Aussie at US$0.7615.

Iron ore fell US40c to US$61.10/t.

Gold is slightly lower at US$1323.80/oz.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 5 points.

It’s been quiet all week on Wall Street in the summer heat, with the long countdown to Jackson Hole soon to end. The first revision of US June quarter GDP is also due tonight.

We have now struggled over the very steep hill that was the past two days of the earnings season. From today, the number of companies reporting each day begins to drop off as we head towards the end of the month.

Today’s highlights include Coca-Cola Amatil ((CCL)), Cabcharge ((CAB)) and Super Retail ((SUL)).

Rudi will Skype-link up with Sky Business to talk broker calls at around 11.05am.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Off The Highs

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 65 points or 0.4% while the S&P fell 0.5% to 2175 and the Nasdaq lost 0.8%.

As You Were

After Tuesday’s brief interruption to normal service, in which it appears a sizeable index buy order hit the market, it was back to the familiar theme on the local bourse yesterday as a small change in the index at the close masked a lot of individual stock movement underneath.

We are now past halfway in the results season in terms of number of companies reporting. On FNArena’s assessment, beats are running at a fairly steady 36% to misses of 25% but broker downgrades are outpacing upgrades by 2.4 to one – a number that has quietly increased as the season has progressed.

The vast bulk of those downgrades are due to over-valuation calls, and to a great extent brokers have almost been apologetic in downgrading what they think are terrific companies that have simply been bought up too far by the market.

This theme has extended into stock movements on the day that have accompanied beats or misses. High flyers who miss even by a slim margin have been slaughtered, while former unloved try-hards who show signs of improvement have been leapt upon. Yesterday was no different.

Snake oil peddler Blackmores ((BKL)) down 20% on weak FY17 guidance. Another Chinese favourite – a2 Milk Company ((A2M)) – down 6%. Yet another Chinese favourite, Australian Agricultural Company ((AAC)), down 5%. FBT dodger McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS)), having seen a solid rebound since Joe Hockey left the country, down 10%.

On the other side of the ledger: software company iSentia ((ISD)) having had a weak year to date, up 17%. It’s been a tough year also for Ardent Leisure ((AAD)), up 14% and for Sirtex Medical ((SRX)), up 12%, and a very bad year for Spotless Group ((SPO)), up 7%.

Yesterday also saw ongoing selling in Tuesday’s disappointers, with Aconex, Greencross and APN Outdoor all suffering further.

There was also disappointment from Wesfarmers ((WES)), despite reporting in line with forecasts. Its shares fell 2% because it has been a popular investment of late and Coles is losing its lustre.

To have a rule you must have an exception, and that came from another software company, Altium ((ALU)). It’s had a solid run all year and yesterday popped 13%.

On a sector basis, if we ignore the 3% fall in telcos due to Telstra’s dividend and 0.3% for utilities due to AGL Energy’s dividend we see consumer staples having suffered the most, down 1.4% thanks to Wesfarmers, industrials closing flat on the above-noted mix of results, and every other sector rising on the day.

Including the banks, which kicked on with another 0.6% gain.

Yesterday’s local data release was June quarter construction work done, which plays into GDP. Overall construction fell 3.7% to be 10.6% lower over twelve months. But it’s not all bad.

The big drag was engineering, down 9% and 25% for the year, largely reflecting the number of big LNG projects reaching completion. As we move ahead from such completions, year on year declines will bottom out. Housing construction is still leading building, up 1.2% and 6% for the year, and governments are doing the right thing in pushing ahead with infrastructure, sending public sector spending up 5.3% for 15% annual.

Unhealthy

Wall Street came off near all-time highs last night but a hundred point Dow fall was pared back late in the afternoon. Aside from another drop in the oil price, the US healthcare sector has been the focus of weakness this week.

On the one hand we’ve seen outrage as drug-maker Mylan announced it would double the price of its ubiquitous Epipen, which so many across the globe carry around as a potential lifesaver. The Epipen represents only one of Mylan’s significant price hikes, and investors have bailed out of the stock fearing government intervention.

On the other, we’ve seen Pfizer (Dow) making two big acquisition announcements in one week and subsequently making investors nervous.

A little bit of a rally in the US dollar overnight, up 0.2% on its index to 94.78, sent commodity prices into a bit of a tailspin as markets look ahead to tomorrow night’s speech by Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole. The fear is Yellen will use the symposium as the forum to confirm a rate hike. I say fear, because no one really believes she’s going to say anything new. But better to be safe…

Otherwise it was still a case of more of the same as the US reaches the “dog days of summer”, as commentators seem to enjoy saying. Volumes remain thin and volatility low.

Bring on Janet.

Commodities

West Texas crude is down US77c at US$46.80/bbl on last night’s weekly US inventory data, which overwhelmed a suggestion Iran may be prepared to talk production freeze after all. I’ll believe that when I see it.

Base metal prices tumbled in London led by nickel, down 3%, with copper and aluminium each falling 1.5%.

Iron ore fell US10c to US$61.50/t.

Gold was shaken out of its slumber and fell US$13.10 to US$1323.80/oz.

The Aussie is steady at US$0.7614.

Today

Tonight sees the release of German IFO investor sentiment index for August which should be interesting in the wake of the surprise eurozone PMI result this week.

Wall Street will see durable goods.

Otherwise, yesterday was the biggest day on the local reporting calendar by number of companies and today sees fewer by only a whisker.

Woolworths ((WOW)) is among the bigger names today and is carrying a big short position, along with very heavily shorted Flight Centre ((FLT)). We’ll also see Amcor ((AMC)), Nine Entertainment ((NEC)), Perpetual ((PPT)), Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) and  South32 ((S32)), along with many, many more.

Rudi should appear on Switzer TV tonight, Sky Business, 7-8pm.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Eying The Highs

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 17 points or 0.1% while the S&P gained 0.2% to 2186 and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%.

Surprise Surge

Now where did that come from? There we were, happily cruising along sideways in the local market as share price responses to the beats and misses of earnings reports largely cancelled each other out. Then suddenly the index is up almost 60 points.

We faded to the close for only a 38 point gain but still we bucked the trend of the month of very low market volatility masking plenty of movement in individual stocks. I’d like to say the gain was all about a day when all the earnings reports lined up together to spark share price jumps but that was not the case.

On the upside, we did see some positive moves from the reporters on the day such as Charter Hall Group ((CHC)), Virtus Health ((VRT)) and Vocus Communications ((VOC)) but at the top of the leader board were stocks having already reported over recent sessions, including IPH, Bellamy’s, Whitehaven Coal and BlueScope Steel.

On the downside, the biggest loser on the day was Monadelphous ((MND)) with an 18% plunge, which dragged down energy services peer WorleyParsons ((WOR)) by 6% ahead of its own result today. Also high on the loser board were previous reporters Bapcor, Cover-More and aged care names Japara and Estia.

So it was still very much a cancel-out day as far as earnings were involved. Yet if we look at the sector moves, they line up fairly evenly to the upside other than energy, which suffered from the lower oil price. The banks rose 0.9%, despite nothing new. Healthcare rose 1.0% thanks to some buying in heavyweight CSL. A 0.9% gain for the telcos included buying in Telstra. All the big caps, it seems, copped a bid.

Someone was executing a Buy Australia trade. At least that’s my assessment.

The index futures are pointing to another decent opening today, but overnight we did actually have some positive macro influences to play off. And one London broker’s upgrade to Glencore and peer BHP Billiton ((BHP)) should also provide a boost.

Otherwise, today is the biggest day of this result season in terms of number of companies reporting.

Shrugged Off

There were grave fears for a struggling European economy when the UK surprisingly voted to jump ship. Last night a flash estimate of eurozone composite (manufacturing and services) PMI for August suggested a level of 53.3, up from 53.2 in July, being the month in which the Brexit vote was held.

While a 0.1 gain is hardly shooting the lights out, the point is economists had forecast a drop in the gauge on the assumption Brexit would have impacted on business and consumer confidence. The PMI helped boost European stock markets, sending Germany up 0.9% and France up 0.7%, while the UK market rose 0.6% in sympathy.

The Dow subsequently opened up almost a hundred points from the bell, before quietly fading as the day progressed. A similar flash PMI estimate for the US was not quite as flash, but that didn’t matter as Wall Street cheered on new home sales.

Sales of new homes in the US jumped 12.4% in July to be 31% higher than a year ago, marking their highest level in eight years. Eight years ago the US housing bubble was about to burst.

Thriving new home sales is great news for an economy as domestically-focused as the US. Aside from the implications for builders, new homes mean a flow-on into sales of furniture and appliances and everything else one fills a house with. Indeed, the Australian market has been witnessing exactly that for the past few years.

Of course, strong US economic data also brings the elephant back into the room. We might consider Wall Street’s all-day drift off from the opening peak to reflect Fed rate rise speculation. The Nasdaq moved into new blue sky territory before closing under, and the S&P500 went very close before slipping away. The Dow remains around a hundred points shy of its recent all-time high.

There is unlikely to be too much speculation regarding Fed policy for the rest of the week given Janet Yellen will speak in Jackson Hole on Friday and then presumably more will be known. Otherwise, why is she there?

Mind you, it would be classic Yellen to turn up and say absolutely nothing of substance.

Commodities

West Texas crude was up around a percent during last night’s session in the new October delivery contract which does rather support my suggestion yesterday that Monday night’s drop was simply an expiry thing. WTI has since faded nonetheless to be up US16c at US$47.57/bbl.

The positive eurozone news did little to fire up London metal markets. Zinc jumped 1% but copper fell 1% and the others moved little in either direction.

Iron ore rose US50c to US$61.60/t.

The US dollar index is flat at 94.55 and gold is just a tad lower at US$1336.90/oz.

The Aussie is 0.3% lower at US$0.7612.

Today

Tonight Wall Street will see whether existing home sales can match new home sales but before that we’ll see Australian June quarter construction work done.

And then there are all those reporters.

They include Blackmores ((BKL)), Boral ((BLD)), MG Unit Trust ((MGC)) (aka Murray Goulburn, that’ll be interesting), Qantas ((QAN)), Qube ((QUB)), Spotless ((SPO)), Wesfarmers ((WES)) Westfield ((WFD)) and the aforementioned WorleyParsons, among many, many more.

Also note Telstra ((TLS)) goes ex today.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Monday Report

By Greg Peel

More of the Same

Behind the scenes of Friday’s modest gain for the ASX200 we saw the same alpha impact of winners and losers among stocks posting earnings results which to a great extent cancelled each other out. The bulk of the ultimate gain was provided by materials (+1.2%), telcos (+1.1%) and utilities (+1.8%), the latter featuring a solid report from DUET Group ((DUE)).

For materials, a significant influence is BHP Billiton ((BHP)) which continues to see buying post-result on the belief the worst is now behind the company, Samarco notwithstanding. Buying in the yield stocks also likely reflects an assumption the Fed will not be raising in September.

Among other reporters, sector heavyweight Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) rose over 1% following its result while Santos ((STO)) went the other way in falling 2% and Origin Energy ((ORG)) saw ongoing selling, leading energy to a net -0.6% to post the only sector fall of the session.

Standout winners elsewhere included Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY)) and Tassal Group ((TGR)) while among the losers were Medibank Private ((MPL)) and Mantra Group ((MTR)).

It was another relatively quiet session on Wall Street on Friday night and with the index futures showing down 6 points this morning, we’re no doubt in for another day of sole focus on company reports.

We are now three weeks into the August reporting season with one and a half weeks to go. Yet to date only a third of the companies covered by brokers on the FNArena database have reported and the vast bulk of the remaining two-thirds will report between now and Friday. Suffice to say, it will be a busy week.

One third in, beats are running at 36% and misses at 25% and ratings downgrades from brokers are outpacing upgrades by 2 to 1. We have to go back to the February 2015 season to find a similar breakdown – back then beats totalled 36% and misses 26% and downgrades outnumbered 3 to 1. In both cases the overriding theme was not one of poor performance but one of share price over-valuation.

In April 2015, the ASX200 peaked at 6000. In February this year it reached 4800. You have been warned.

Mind you, over the course of February 2015 the index rallied 6%. Over August 2016, the index has gone nowhere.

More of the Same

At least the local market has earnings season to focus on. With the US earnings season now all but over, Wall Street has nothing to focus on.

Friday night did see another Fedhead talk up a possible Fed rate hike and that’s likely why the Dow was down a hundred points early in the session. Overall, Wall Street is affording little credence to Fedspeak and as such Wall Street closed mildly lower on the session, likely reflecting no more than a typical Friday square-up.

The Dow closed down 45 points or 0.2% while the S&P lost 0.1% to 2183 and the Nasdaq was flat.

There is nonetheless a reasonable amount of economic data due this week for Wall Street to contemplate and at week’s end, the infamous Jackson Hole symposium will feature a speech from Janet Yellen. This gathering of central bankers in recent years provided the unofficial announcements of Ben Bernanke’s various QE programs.

Commodities

West Texas crude ticked up another US19c to US$48.52 on Friday night and talk now is of 50 being regained. The recent bounce has been all about speculation Saudi Arabia may be able to put together an agreement on a production freeze and the relevant OPEC meeting is still a month off, so there is time.

No one really believes a freeze will happen.

The US dollar index was up 0.3% to 94.50 and nickel was the only base metal not to post a fall in London, albeit no move exceeded -1%.

Iron ore rose US20c to US$61.00/t.

Having spent the week grafting incrementally higher, gold fell US$11.00 to US$1341,10/oz.

The Aussie saw a welcome drop of 0.7% to US$0.7634 by Saturday morning but there is growing talk of 80c being retested.

The SPI Overnight closed down 6 points on Saturday morning.

The Week Ahead

US data releases this week include the Chicago Fed national index tonight, the Richmond Fed index and new home sales tomorrow and existing home sales and FHFA house prices on Wednesday. Thursday it’s durable goods and on Friday it’s consumer sentiment alongside the first revision of June quarter GDP and Yellen’s speech at the Hole.

We’ll also see flash estimates of manufacturing PMIs for Japan, the eurozone and US across the week and Germany’s IFO business sentiment index will be closely watched on Thursday.

The only Australian data release of note this week is June quarter construction work done, due on Wednesday, which reminds us our own June quarter GDP result is due in a couple of weeks.

Otherwise, it’s all about earnings.

Today’s highlights include BlueScope Steel ((BSL)), Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) and Seek ((SEK)). There are simply too many companies reporting this week to highlight a full week’s results.

Please refer to the FNArena calendar (link below).

Rudi will appear on Sky Business on Tuesday, via Skype-link to discuss broker calls at 11.15am, then again on Thursday between 7-8pm for the Switzer Report and a third time, again via Skype-link, on Friday around 11.05am.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

For further global economic release dates and local company events please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Oiled Up

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 23 points or 0.1% while the S&P gained 0.2% to 2187 and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%.

Amped Down

To date the local earnings season has featured plenty of ups and downs among individual reporting stocks that have largely netted out to leave the ASX200 in sideways mode. Yesterday we saw more downs than ups, or more specifically, more influential downs than ups, to provide a 0.5% index drop.

AMP ((AMP)) posted a miss that largely came down to weakness in its wealth protection business – a business also conducted by the banks. We thus saw AMP shares down 5% and a flow-through to general financials sector softness in falling 0.9% and proving a major drag on the index.

Heathcare heavyweight CSL ((CSL)) saw ongoing selling following its miss on Wednesday, falling another 3%, While Primary Health Care ((PRY)), having jumped up following its release on Wednesday, jumped straight back down again by 5% yesterday to help take that sector down 1.9%.

This harks back to what I was saying yesterday – first responses to result announcements are not always definitive indicators. And on that point I note Domino’s Pizza ((DMP)) was back amongst the losers yesterday in falling 4%. Down, up, down -- the market really cannot come to a conclusion on that company.

Consumer discretionary fell 0.5% yesterday but it was a very mixed bag for a very diverse sector. Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)) won the day with an 11% gain for example, and auto parts dealer BapCor ((BAP)), formerly Burson, jumped 6%.

It was left to the resource sectors and consumer staples to provide some offset yesterday, given the telcos and utilities saw a return to weakness.

Speaking of weakness, the monthly Australian jobs lottery surprised as usual yesterday, not because the ABS website managed to stay up for the release but because 26,200 jobs were added in July when 10,000 were forecast. The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.7%.

Oh no, there goes the rate cut, said forex traders, and the Aussie duly shot up over 77c. However, the breakdown revealed 45,400 full time jobs were actually lost during the month, offset by the addition of 71,600 part time jobs. “Underemployment” is the new buzz word. There are plenty of people who would dearly like to work more hours, and the preponderance of part time-only work is why Australia’s wage growth is currently so anaemic.

So as you were, no reason to see the RBA changing its mind on the strength of this particular jobs report. The Aussie subsequently dropped back below 77 before running into US dollar weakness overnight, and is currently up 0.4% over 24 hours at US$0.7685.

It was likely the misleading jobs report that sparked selling in the yield sectors yesterday.

Another Shrimp?

The nightmare of any overnight reporter is that nothing actually happens, leaving nothing to report. Wall Street is offering up just that scenario at present. The US indices bungled a long last night in thin trade once again, reminding us that August in the US is January in Australia and everyone’s having a barbie after a dip rather than trading stocks.

We did see WalMart (Dow), the world’s largest retailer, post a surprisingly good result and oil prices continued to run higher. Brent rose 2% to surge through the US$50/bbl mark while WTI closed some of the gap with a 3% gain to over 48.

And Fedspeak raised its increasingly ugly head again. Following on from no less than three Fedheads suggesting this week a rate hike is either likely or at least needed, St Louis Fed president James Bullard, he of “new regime” fame, last night reiterated his prediction that there won’t be a rate hike until 2018.

What is an investor to think?

Commodities

The US dollar index fell 0.6% to 94.18 last night, probably because the market believes the Bullard camp holds more sway over the FOMC than anyone pushing for a hike. This provided some support for commodity prices.

West Texas crude rose US$1.40 to US$48.34/bbl and Brent rose US$1.07 to US$50.92/bbl.

Aluminium bucked the trend on the LME by falling slightly while the other metals jumped 1-1.5%.

Iron ore fell US30c to US$60.80/t.

Gold continues to graft higher, rising US$3.70 to US$1352.10/oz.

Today

Following yesterday’s local market weakness, the SPI Overnight closed up 15 points or 0.3%.

The index futures are a difficult game to play at the moment nonetheless, given index movements this month have been almost entirely driven by individual company earnings and not by any macro influence. So each day is a bit of a lottery on who might beat and who might miss.

Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) and Santos ((STO)) are in the frame today, as are Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), Lend Lease ((LLC)), Medibank Private ((MPL)), and a couple of popular smaller names in the form of Automotive Holdings Group ((AHG)) and Bellamy’s Australia ((BAL)). The latter is quite heavily shorted.

Rudi will appear twice on Sky Business today. First via Skype-link to discuss broker calls, at around 11.05am, and later on Mark Todd's Fixed Interest version of Your Money, Your Call with co-guest Roger Montgomery, 7-8pm.
 

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