Tag Archives: Energy

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Consolidation

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 23 points or 0.1% while the S&P was flat at 2090 and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%.

Resistance

After another strong session on Wall Street, the ASX200 shot up 30 points from the bell yesterday, hit a brick wall at 5400, and promptly tumbled just as quickly to be down on the day. After dusting itself off, the index again staged a rally before running into the weak capex numbers.

Again we were in the negative. But ultimately the market grafted its way back to a close of 5388, once again eyeing off the 5400 barrier.

It was a mixed bag among the sectors yesterday. Energy (2.0%) and materials (1.7%) again led the charge to the upside with the banks providing only limited support, while the selling continued in Wesfarmers ((WES)) following prior announced impairments. Hence consumer staples fell 2.1%. Telcos and utilities also came under some pressure.

The headlines have all been typically sensationalist over a weaker than expected March quarter capex result but in fact the numbers weren’t as bad as they looked, if one considers that there are two sets of numbers. There is the “what was” of actual capital expenditure over the period and there is the “what will be” of capex intentions for the next financial year.

“What was” fell a larger than expected 5.2% and will have economists trimming their March quarter GDP forecasts. Mining fell 12% and non-mining rose 0.4%. We can take some solace in the fact the “mining” number must eventually stop falling, although we still have to get past the ramp-up (and subsequent end to capex) of the big LNG projects. Meanwhile, non-mining is just not gaining enough traction to make the difference.

If we look at the “what will be”, the second estimate of FY17 capex intentions came in at a better than expected $89.2bn, up 6.3% higher than the first estimate a quarter ago. Of that $89.2bn, mining accounts for $36.0bn and non-mining $53.2bn. That would seem a step in the right direction.

While the RBA will be keen to have learned just how the Australian economy really did fare in the March quarter, it is capex intentions that inform monetary policy going forward.

Meanwhile, the market still gives the impression it really wants to break through 5400. Perhaps once the profit-taking is exhausted, it might. But today is a Friday, there is no support from Wall Street for another sortie, and this weekend is also a long one in the US, providing cause for traders to square up.

Happy Birthday

The Dow turned 120 years old last night.

While the Dow Jones company was keen for a celebration, Wall Street had no plans to turn on an exciting session. After two solid days of rallying, the Dow took a breather. While going nowhere does not provide much opportunity to make money, traders were nevertheless pleased to see the indices hold their ground in consolidation rather than sharply fall back again, as is often the case.

In economic news, US durable goods orders rose 3.4% in April but stripping out the lumpy transport component left a more modest 0.4% gain. The core capital goods component, which is seen as a proxy for business investment, fell 0.8%, and has fallen in five of the past six months.

So not a particularly rosy picture there. By contrast, the US housing market continues to surge along, with pending home sales jumping in April to their highest level since February 2006. The pending home sales numbers match very strong new and existing home sales numbers released earlier in the week, as well as an ongoing rise in house prices.

The other important driver of Wall Street at present – oil – saw an initial rally last night to push WTI over the 50 mark, but 50 is to oil what 5400 is to the ASX200 at the moment, and this morning oil prices are down slightly from the day before.

It is a full session in US equity markets tonight but the tumbleweeds will be rolling through the NYSE after lunch as Wall Street is evacuated for the Memorial Day long weekend – the unofficial start of summer.

Commodities

West Texas crude is down US34c at US$49.40/bbl and Brent is down US43c at US$49.47/bbl. I think it is now fair to say WTI has regained its place as the global oil benchmark from Brent, now that the spread is negligible and US oil production is the swing factor in global supply. To that end, Brent prices will continue to appear on the FNArena website but I’ll only mention it here from now on if something strange happens.

When WTI breached 50 last night, LME traders decided enough selling had been seen and piled into base metals, sparking a short-covering scramble. When oil retreated again, so did metal prices, but while copper and nickel only managed gains of around 0.5%, aluminium rose 1%, zinc 2.5% and lead 3%.

Metal prices were also supported by another dip for the US dollar index, down 0.3% to 95.15.

Speaking of magic 50 marks, iron ore fell US10c to US$49.90/t.

Despite the weaker greenback, gold is down US$4.50 at US$1219.50/oz and because of the weaker greenback, the Aussie is up 0.3% at US$0.7223.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 5 points.

The US March quarter GDP result will be revised tonight and Fed chair Janet Yellen will speak, potentially sparking some volatility that might otherwise be absent on a pre-long weekend Friday.

Locally, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare ((FPH)) has released its earnings report this morning.

Rudi has returned from his up-close evening with FNArena subscribers in good spirits and he will Skype-link with Sky Business at around 11.05am this morning to discuss broker calls.
 

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All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Encore

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 145 points or 0.8% while the S&P rose 0.7% to 2090 and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%.

Green on Screen

After two wavering and nervous-looking sessions for the ASX200 on Monday and Tuesday, yesterday saw a return to the type of buying we saw last Friday – index wide. Thanks to a sudden return to exuberance in Europe and on Wall Street, Australia joined in the risk-on flurry.

As oil prices push up towards the 50 mark, energy led the charge with a 2.7% gain. At the other end of the scale, the defensives of utilities and consumer staples dragged the chain somewhat, only managing gains of around half a percent. Every other sector posted uniform gains of around 1.5%, and thus so did the ASX200 by the close.

There was a slight fade at the end – the index almost raised its bat to the crowd around lunchtime before settling up 76 – but otherwise yesterday’s “rally” mimicked that on Wall Street in being a step-jump from the opening bell and thus not much of a “rally” per se.

However while Wall Street traders were suggesting on Tuesday night it was all about a short squeeze and little else, Australia’s level of short positions are as low as they’ve been for a long time. And shorts in the Big Caps are minimal. Thus we can’t call yesterday a short squeeze downunder. We may, nevertheless, call it jumping on the bandwagon.

The volume of construction work in Australia declined by 2.6% in the March quarter, yesterday’s data revealed – worse than the 1.5% decline forecast. Engineering construction fell 4.2% to be down 13.7% year on year, balanced by a rise in residential construction of 1.5%, up 5.7% year on year. The housing boom is not finding the support elsewhere to overcome rapidly declining resource sector investment. The Australian economy is struggling in its transition.

Not that anyone cared yesterday. And besides, Glenn’s got our backs.

The construction data feed into today’s more influential capex numbers. Could they take the wind out of the sails?

Same Again

On Tuesday night global markets were encouraged by easing Brexit fears. We recall that the tag “Brexit” had its origins in something we all used to worry sick about in previous years – a possible “Grexit”.

Last night eurozone finance ministers agreed to release E10.3bn of bail-out funds to the still-struggling member, despite Germany’s opposition, two days after the Greek parliament voted to enact a further round of spending cuts and tax increases. The ministers also agreed to offer Greece further relief in 2018 if required.

While not in the class of a Brexit in terms of possible global turmoil, staving off renewed Grexit fears is still a mild positive for the risk-on players. And we won’t have to all go on and on about it again.

Otherwise another day of rallying on Wall Street was simply a follow-on from Tuesday. And while volumes were a little better last night than the night before, they still weren’t the stuff of buyer conviction. Again traders declared the rally to be driven by little more than short-covering, and advised their clients to sell into to it.

Last night’s monthly trade data released in the US showed an increase in both exports and imports, further fuelling a sudden belief the US economy is actually doing pretty well. Positive data continue to feed into June rate hike expectations, and thus into strength in the US financial sector. Tonight all eyes will be on durable goods. Another gain for oil prices, almost to the 50 mark, also helped drive a second session of market gains.

On Monday night, Wall Street barely moved, uncertain as to what might transpire with the UK and with Fed policy. Since then, the Dow is up 358 points.

Commodities

West Texas crude is up US63c at US$49.74/bbl and Brent is up US77c at US$49.90/bbl.

Aside from playing off supply numbers, oil is looking at stronger US data as a positive sign. The trade-off is a stronger US dollar a Fed rate rise implies. Base metal markets should also see stronger data as a positive, but are more fearful of the greenback at present and unsure over demand-supply, given China is yet to show any real rebound.

The US dollar index has slipped 0.2% to 95.40 but aluminium, lead and nickel are down 0.5-1.5%. Copper is up a percent.

Iron ore fell US20c to US$50.00/t.

Stability in the greenback means gold has also stabilised at US$1224.00/oz.

The Aussie is 0.2% higher at US$0.7199.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 34 points or 0.6%.

If accurate, that would take the ASX200 over the 5400 mark. The question is as to whether we will see profit-takers come in at that level, or whether a breach will bring in fresh buying.

As noted, the US sees durable goods data tonight but before that, the local release of March quarter private capex and capex intentions numbers today will be very closely watched by the RBA.

Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) will post its earnings result today.

Rudi will make his weekly appearance on Sky Business, 12.30-2.30pm and tonight he shall entertain a small group of subscribers who signed up for the Sydney "An Evening With Rudi" event.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Oh Won’t You Stay

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 213 points or 1.2% while the S&P gained 1.4% to 20176 and the Nasdaq jumped 2.0%.

Reprieve

Had I been writing this Report yesterday evening I would have suggested the local market looked very vulnerable. Last Friday we saw a market looking very much like it wanted to go up, supported by recent developments in monetary policy. On Monday we plunged from the open but immediately the technical buyers stepped in.

But that rebound faded in the afternoon. Yesterday we saw another attempt to recover from early sogginess before a sharp fall towards the closing bell. That drop ensured a close under 5300, and that is technically weak. Markets that want to go up but can’t find support tend to swiftly become markets that go down.

Had the Dow been down two hundred points this morning it would have been Goodnight Irene. But the Dow is up two hundred points so the local market is in for a reprieve. The futures are up 75 points this morning.

Yesterday saw only healthcare and utilities hold up against a tide of weakness elsewhere. Energy saw the biggest fall of 1.3% on a lower oil price, but oil is strong this morning. Materials responded to a weaker iron ore price and that was weak again overnight, albeit the two big miners rallied in London.

The telcos finally caved with a 1.0% fall and it's surprising that hadn’t happened earlier, given Telstra’s outage woes.

All of the above will prove academic today.

More enduring is RBA governor Glenn Stevens’ suggestion in a Q&A yesterday that inflation in Australia is too low, and that RBA still wants to see it back above 2%. This implies another rate cut is on the cards, and as such the index did jump higher, briefly, at lunchtime yesterday, before selling again overwhelmed.

The Aussie also dutifully dropped on Stevens’ comments, despite the fact the market has already baked in another rate cut and that’s what had us down at 72 in the first place. Strength in the greenback overnight had the Aussie falling as low as 71.4 before it stabilised, down 0.6% over 24 hours at US$0.7184.

Risk On

There’s been a lot of concern of late about the upcoming Brexit vote, much Chicken Little commentary and speculation the Fed will remain on hold until after the referendum just in case the world goes to hell in a handcart. Polling, up to now, has favoured the “stay” vote, but inconclusively so.

The latest poll released last night has inspired confidence in there being no Brexit. It showed “stay” at 55% and “go” at 42% -- the widest margin to date. Importantly, the poll only recorded the intentions of those who definitely plan to vote, and for the first time the “stay” vote outweighed the “go” vote in the over-65 cohort.

The fear has been that the “goers” would be more likely to come out to vote than the “stayers”, and that there would be a greater nationalistic fervour among older Britons. Last night’s poll eased those fears.

And subsequently eased market fears, both in London and across the Channel. The FTSE jumped 1.4%, the German DAX 2.2% and the French CAC 2.5%.

That sense of relief then flowed across the Pond. But if that wasn’t enough, data released before the opening bell on Wall Street revealed US new home sales jumped 16.6% in April, the biggest monthly jump in 24 years.

(Keep an eye on those Aussie stocks with a finger in the US building materials pie today.)

For US home building stocks, it was off to the races. And for the rest of the market, the result was the same. But hang on…surely the strong home sales numbers give the Fed more reason to hike in June, and an easing of Brexit fears removes that particular barrier? Shouldn’t Wall Street crumble on rate hike fears?

Many believe this will likely still occur in the short term, were the Fed to hike next month. But in the wider scheme of things, such a solid new homes sales result suggests the US economy is actually at lot stronger than many had assumed – particularly those who up to now could see no economic reason why the Fed should feel the need to hike. And on a global scale, if there is to be no Brexit then that takes out a major concern that would otherwise have investors hiding on the sidelines.

Two sectors stood out last night – banks and tech. Rate hikes are good for banks. Tech represents the epitome of the “risk on” trade, being for the most part very speculative. But “tech” includes names like Apple, and when the biggest stock in the market rallies hard, there’s a big impact on the indices.

Yet it wasn’t really a “rally”, per se. The Dow shot up 200 points from the opening bell and stayed there all day. Volumes were not particularly heavy. It is thus most likely, commentators agreed, that last night was more about short-covering than anything else.

Commodities

It also didn’t hurt that West Texas is up US$1.00 or 2% after a couple of soggy sessions, to US$49.11/bbl, and Brent is up US76c at US$49.13/bbl – as good as parity. The strong home sales data feeds back to expectations of stronger oil demand.

Base metal prices could fare no better than mixed in London nevertheless. Copper and nickel are up around half a percent and aluminium, lead and zinc are down around half a percent.

Iron ore fell another US$2.50 to US$50.20/t.

The US dollar index is up 0.4% to 95.59 on rate hike expectations, thus gold is down US$21.30 at US$1226.90/oz.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 75 points or 1.4%.

Locally we’ll welcome the numbers for March quarter construction work done today, which feed into tomorrow’s capex data. Otherwise, it’s quite a busy day on the local stock front.

Programmed Maintenance ((PRG)) will release its earnings result. Investor days will be held by all of Boral ((BLD)), Suncorp ((SUN)) and WorleyParsons ((WOR)), while Perpetural ((PPT)) will provide an update on its investment division.

Adelaide Brighton ((ABC)) and G8 Education ((GEM)) are among a handful of companies hosting AGMs today.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Waiting Game

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 8 points while the S&P lost 0.2% to 2048 and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%.

Contrast

What a difference a weekend makes. On Friday local investors steadily pushed the ASX200 up 0.5% to the close in a mostly straight line, with all sectors faring relatively equally. The session smacked of index buying. Yesterday, in stark contrast, was a rock’n’roll affair.

The index opened slightly higher before promptly falling 54 points to late morning. It then rallied to be back in the positive by 2pm before falling away again to the close, down 32 points. For the most part, the sector moves up on Friday were all largely reversed.

The exceptions were telcos, which held their ground, and energy, which dropped 2.0%. Analysts are quite happy with Oil Search’s ((OSH)) complex bid for InterOil but investors sold the stock down 3%. Individual company issues which were absent on Friday were back in force yesterday. Beyond Oil Search, we had a profit warning from Flight Centre ((FLT)), the fourth most shorted stock on the market, which fell 9%, and a profit upgrade from BlueScope Steel ((BSL)), which jumped 7%.

On Friday the focus appeared to be on the potential for ever lower rates from the RBA, despite a reasonable economy, and the benefits that might bring. Yesterday investors appeared concerned about commodity prices once again, as oil fails to push through 50 and iron ore futures took a tumble yesterday afternoon. Spot iron ore fell 5% overnight.

With macro fundamentals a difficult beast to grasp at present, the market seems unsure just what it should be doing. The bounce off the low yesterday before a rally back to square occurred when the index hit the 5300 mark, suggesting technical buying. With Wall Street flat overnight and equally unsure of direction, we may well be stuck in a range now for a while, notwithstanding any left of field developments.

June Looms

Brexit risk is increasingly on everyone’s minds. At this stage the polls favour the “stay” vote winning on June 23 but not by any clear margin. Given the referendum is not compulsory, “stay” supporters are concerned it benefits those with a more nationalist bent who may make a point of voting while the status quo-types may not be so committed. Whatever the case, it is as yet too close to call.

The Fed releases its June policy statement one week earlier. Wall Street generally believes the FOMC would not be inclined to cause potential turmoil with a rate hike if a week later a whole new round of turmoil manifests. If a rate hike is otherwise on the cards, it may come down to what the polls are saying as we get closer to the event.

Either way, Wall Street has swung from not expecting a rate hike until at least December to suddenly having to contemplate a hike as early as next month, with potentially more to follow. Yet not a helluva lot has changed in the interim. Wall Street is confused, and cautious.

Janet Yellen will speak on Friday night. It’s a full week away, but already in last night’s session talk is of the market not wanting to do anything bold until Yellen has her say. Recent Fedspeak has been decidedly hawkish but Yellen has a track record of appearing far more dovish than her voting members, seemingly always being the one to pour cold water on rate hike expectations.

We note also that the June Fed meeting is a quarterly, meaning updated economic forecasts and a press conference with the Chair. Often it is the conference and accompanying Q&A that sends markets off in a new direction, rather than the policy statement itself.

Commodities

West Texas crude rolled over into the July delivery front month last night and in so doing, closed the gap on Brent to a negligible amount. WTI is down US30c at US$48.11/bbl and Brent is down US50c at US$48.37. Hard to believe that spread was once US$27, although prices were a lot higher then.

The US dollar index is again steady at 95.24 and thus having no impact on commodity prices. LME traders remain just as cautious as everyone else and devoid of direction. Last night aluminium rose 1% while lead and zinc fell 1% and nickel fell 2%.

Iron ore fell US$3.00 to US$52.70/t.

Gold is down US$3.70 at US$1248.20/oz.

The Aussie is also steady, at US$0.7224.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down one point.

As central bankers continue to dominate the markets they were once upon a time silent witnesses to, Glenn Stevens will speak today and take a Q&A.

Technology One ((TNE)) will issue an earnings result.

Rudi will Skype-link with Sky Business to discuss broker calls at 11.15am.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

Oil Search Upgrades Prospects In Bid For InterOil

-Values InterOil around US$2.2bn
-Sign of confidence in Elk/Antelope field
-Risk that OSH valuation increases
 

By Eva Brocklehurst

Oil Search ((OSH)) has made a play for InterOil ((IOC)), amid plans to simplify the joint venture structure underpinning the Papua LNG project and strengthen the potential for synergies and collaboration with PNG LNG.

The intention is to on-sell a 60% stake in the acquired assets to Total, which will mean Oil Search's stake in Papua LNG (Elk/Antelope) increases to 29%, consistent with its stake in PNG LNG. Oil Search has offered 8.05 shares for every InterOil share, valuing the stock at US$40.75 a share and representing an enterprise value consideration of US$2.2bn.

As an alternative to scrip, InterOil shareholders can opt for a cash component of up to US$770m. If the cash component comes below this figure Oil Search will use the remainder to buy back shares. This enables the company to minimise the number of its shares issued under the deal and, therefore, dilution to existing shareholders.

The issue of a contingent value right (CVR) also means InterOil shareholders will receive an additional US$6.05/share for every Tcfe of gas certified above 6.2 Tcfe, with Total to contribute 60% of the cost of the CVR. InterOil shareholders will end up owning around 21% of the combined entity. The acquisition is subject to 66.7% of InterOil shareholders approving the deal and regulatory approval.

Deutsche Bank finds merit in the transaction, with the streamlined structure expected to accelerate development. The partial sell-down to Total also is appealing as it ensures Oil Search can better manage its increased funding requirement for the development.

The transaction's metrics represent a 30-50% premium to the company's purchase of a 18% stake in 2014 in the Elk/Antelope field but the broker believes this is a sign of confidence in the de-risking of higher resource outcomes after recent appraisal drilling. Hence, Deutsche Bank likes the exposure to one of the lowest-cost LNG development opportunities globally and retains a Buy rating.

Oil Search has indicated it will seek to bring forward co-operation with PNG LNG, suggesting that equity is available in Elk/Antelope for other parties and that this is an important factor in any collaboration. This indicates to Deutsche Bank that Oil Search and Total may offer equity to PNG LNG's Exxon Mobil as an incentive to secure a combined development.

Ord Minnett likes the plan, as the measures should strengthen Oil Search's balance sheet and add value as the project de-risks. The main risk is that the contribution of Papua LNG to the company's overall valuation has increased, even though the project is not expected to reach a final investment decision until 2018.

The risks lie, too, in a number of uncertainties ahead for the project, including plant size, capital expenditure and timing. The broker observes the deal will result in a cash inflow to Oil Search of US$560-840m.

It is strategically sensible as it removes a minority shareholder in Papua LNG, with considerable upside should this project be developed with PNG LNG, something Oil Search has flagged in the past.

Ord Minnett does not completely dismiss the likelihood of Exxon Mobil or another rival proposing a higher bid but considers the risk is low. Given a 27% premium to the current share price the broker also expects InterOil shareholders to accept the offer. The broker likes Oil Search's low-cost assets, growth profile and longer-term corporate appeal, retaining an Accumulate rating.

UBS also believes upside is possible from the deal if cost synergies can be achieved between PNG LNG and Papua LNG but retains a Sell rating on Oil Search.

FNArena's database has a consensus target of $7.32, suggesting 9.6% upside to the last share price. There are three Buy ratings, two Hold and one Sell. Morgan Stanley and Macquarie are advising in the transaction and provide no rating or target at this juncture.
 

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article 3 months old

Woodside Grapples With Strategy Amid Subdued Outlook

-NWS output decline brought forward
-Small acquisitions targeted
-Supportive dividend yield


By Eva Brocklehurst

Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) is manoeuvring to meet the challenges of a weak oil price and lack of growth. North West Shelf (NWS) output is now expected to decline from 2020, around five years ahead of prior guidance. Value is expected to be added via tolling third party gas.

The stated timing of the decline has unsettled Credit Suisse, who questions why this was suddenly brought forward. Production is running around 8.0% above previous expectations, but at the the time of the memorandum of understanding with Hess in December the broker notes there was no suggestion about production declines starting earlier. Macquarie attributes the reason partly to expanded capacity, which has improved to 16.9mtpa from the upgraded 16.7mtpa highlighted in the 2015 annual report.

There was no change to 2016 production guidance of 86-93mmboe at the investor briefing. Production is geared towards LNG from three Australian projects – NWS, Pluto and Wheatstone, while growth from development of existing discoveries is long dated. Acquisitions are only being sought in a sub US$1bn range, with the company reiterating a view that large scale M&A is not on the agenda.

Productivity improvements continue to be made with US$700m of a 2016 US$800m target delivered already. Macquarie observes the exploration strategy in Myanmar is achieving some success. With a smaller annual budget now proposed from 2017, activity in 2016 is limited to the Exmouth/Beagle Basins while a more active 2017-18 will include 4-7 appraisal wells in Myanmar, 3-5 in Australia and 3-5 across the Atlantic acreage and one in sub-Saharan Africa.

The company's global footprint is expanding and acquisitions of discovered resources could act as positive catalysts over the next 12 months, Morgan Stanley maintains. Woodside has outlined an opportunity to engage with third party resource owners, such as those with no current development options. Scarborough and Greater Gorgon are assets the broker suggests could fall within the criteria.

Given its underperformance over the past 12 months and attractive risk/reward characteristics in an uncertain oil outlook, Woodside remains Morgan Stanley's preferred large cap exposure, with an Equal-weight rating. The broker continues to believe that the company would obtain more value through a buy rather than a drill strategy, putting its focus on discovered resources and targeting oil.

Oil prices are correcting, UBS maintains, given the reductions to global investment and a sharp fall in US rig activity that has occurred. Markets should re-balance by the end of the year. The broker believes the company can survive three years of low oil prices given its low-cost LNG production, low sustaining capex and modest growth investment.

The company continues to suggest a soft pricing outlook for LNG, with medium-term agreements struck at a 20% lower indexation compared with 2013. Pricing is expected to recover by 2018, with a shortfall expected by 2022. UBS forecasts LNG markets to be oversupplied until 2023 and assumes future uncontracted LNG will sell for a 15% discount to prevailing LNG contracts, although suspects Woodside could achieve better outcomes because of a track record of delivery and relationships with key customers.

Macquarie accepts the company's LNG reliability and cost reductions have delivered tangible benefits to date yet much of the cost efficiencies have now been achieved and Browse LNG is back at concept phase. While the company continues to target 80-90% of LNG sales on term contracts, the broker observes the number expiring in 2017 will mean sales fall to the lower end of this range.

One aspect that differentiates Woodside from others in Australia, which Morgan Stanley highlights, is that it is evolving as a portfolio supplier of LNG. This means it can provide more flexibility for customers, with shorter contracts and options on destination.

While Woodside may be best placed of its peers to ride out the weak oil price outlook it still needs growth in the medium term and the focus on acquisitions in the past 18 months has not generated value accretion, UBS asserts. After putting Browse FLNG on ice, exploration appears the most likely path, but the broker considers this a slow burn. Nevertheless, in the meantime, the company rewards shareholders via its pay-out ratio, which pays a dividend yield of over 5.0% when oil prices recover to above US$50/bbl.

As Ord Minnett envisages it, development up until 2020 will focus on replenishing reserves while significant growth will more likely emanate from 2021 onwards: from Myanmar, Browse phase 1, Kitimat and utilising NWS as a tolling facility. Management has suggested that on a value basis the latter could be worth as much as US$500-800m.

There is no change to capex guidance for 2016 and the company has guided to average capex of US$1.5bn in 2017-18. Part of this outflow will fund unsanctioned projects such as Greater Enfield, Kitimat and Browse and, therefore, Ord Minnett has not yet encapsulated this guidance into modelling. This suggests potential downside risk to free cash flow forecasts.

Regardless of the juggling required in the near-term market in oil and gas, Citi likes the quality of the balance sheet and suggests any impact from Woodside's search for a growth engine may take two years before materialising. Hence, the broker is the one Buy rating in the pack on the FNArena's database. Otherwise, there are seven Hold ratings. The consensus target is $27.43, suggesting 3.0% upside to the last share price. Targets range from $23.10 to $31.12.
 

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article 3 months old

The Monday Report

By Greg Peel

Buying Mode

There’s really not a lot to say about Friday’s action on the local market. The index rose relatively consistently throughout the session ahead of a bit of Friday-like afternoon profit-taking, while still closing on a robust 0.5% gain.

Every sector finished in the green. The only sectors not to rise at least 0.5% were financials, on 0.4%, and healthcare, on 0.3%, while at 1.3%, tiny info tech was the only sector to exceed 1.0%. Every other sector fell evenly between those two, suggesting Friday’s action was more about index buying than about individual company movements.

And why not? one might ask. What’s the alternative? A term deposit paying 2.5%? A government bond paying much the same over ten years? Both of which are taxable. While eight years down the track investors still shudder at the memory of their GFC experience, and still carry historically high levels of cash, the dividends available in the stock market -- many tax free -- are just too attractive to ignore.

And the latest game in town is How Low Can We Go? Most local economists had been for some time predicting the RBA would need to cut, but even they were taken by surprise by the May move. Now the race is on to predict further cuts, be it one, two or maybe three, down to 1.00%. Those dividends are looking even better.

The ASX200 finished the week at 5350, which is basically the technical target chartists have held onto for months, even as we stared into the abyss at 4800. We are at the “where to now” point and continue to consolidate. The upside must still be favoured, baring anything out of left field, ranging from a sudden retreat in the oil price to a Brexit “yes” vote.

This week will be critical to determining whether market confidence is supported by economic reality. Glenn Stevens will conduct a Q&A tomorrow, where no doubt the one percent question will be raised. On Wednesday we have March quarter construction numbers and on Thursday, private sector capex and capex intentions. That latter number is forward-looking and very closely watched by the RBA.

And on the other side of the world…

Flip everything over, and we have the situation in the US. Having decided only a month a go there was no way the Fed was going to raise again this year, suddenly Wall Street is worried they might. Twice. Maybe even three times.

And the market, many a commentator is suggesting, is not prepared for it. The market is still pricing in the chance of maybe one hike, later in the year. Many believe the Fed will not risk acting ahead of the Brexit vote next month. Many believe the Fed will not risk acting ahead of presidential election in November (despite there being no precedent of holding back in election years). But recent Fedspeak is leaning very much the other way. The Fed is trying to get Wall Street to prepare.

The Dow was up over a hundred points mid-session on Friday night before wavering towards the close. It was a Friday nonetheless, and it was also expiry day for May S&P500 options, which often has an impact. Wall Street finished down for the week but the question going forward is as to whether one should be scared by the possibility of a Fed rate hike, or two, or happy that the impetus behind a Fed hike is a stronger US economy.

In both 2014 and 2015, the US economy bounced hard out of a March quarter slump. In 2016, GDP grew by an anaemic 0.5% in the March quarter. CNBC’s daily GDP tracker, based on rolling data releases, is currently predicting 2.5% for the June quarter. That’s rate hike-worthy on anyone’s terms. The first official estimate of June quarter GDP will not, however, have been released when the Fed meets in June.

The Dow closed up 65 points or 0.4% on Friday night. The S&P gained 0.6% to 2052 as the Nasdaq reversed its recent trend and shot up 1.2%. This was due to a Street-beating earnings result from chip-maker Applied Materials, which sparked a 13% share price jump and a lift for all chip stocks.

The economic data point of the day was April existing home sales, which rose a better than expected 1.7%. Inventory for existing homes for sale is tight, particularly at the affordable end of the market, which is a positive for the economy.

Commodities

All talk on oil markets at present is of supply outages. In particular, production is still down in Canada due to the fires and in Nigeria due to rebels bombing pipelines. The WTI price is hanging around just under, but not yet game to breach, the 50 mark. Lost Canadian production is expected to resume in a couple of weeks, while Nigeria is more ongoing. Rebels bomb pipelines every other week in that troubled land.

The concern is that 50 is a magic level that once surpassed will spark a new round of hedging (forward-selling) from oil producers. This could prove self-defeating. On Friday night West Texas closed down US49c at US$47.75/bbl while Brent was steady at US$48.87/bbl.

The US dollar index was steady at 95.27 but base metals prices were mostly weaker, with copper down 0.5% and nickel and lead down 1%.

Iron ore is unchanged at US$55.70/t.

Gold is off a tad at US$1251.90/oz and the Aussie is steady at US$0.7218.

The SPI Overnight closed up three points on Saturday morning.

The Week Ahead

A revision of the US March quarter GDP result is out on Friday, but those numbers are starting to get a bit stale. Of more interest during the week will be a flash estimate of manufacturing PMI tonight, new home sales and the Richmond Fed index tomorrow, and house prices, new home sales and a flash services PMI on Wednesday.

On Thursday it's durable goods and pending home sales, and on Friday consumer sentiment.

As noted, Australia’s week will be dominated by March quarter construction and capex numbers ahead of next week’s GDP result. And all ears will be on Glenn Stevens tomorrow.

On the local stock front, we’ll see earnings results from Technology One ((TNE)) tomorrow, Programmed Maintenance ((PRG)) on Wednesday, Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) on Thursday, and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare ((FPH)) on Friday.

Perpetual ((PPT)) will provide earnings numbers for its investment company on Wednesday, which will also see investor days being held by Boral ((BLD)), Suncorp ((SUN)) and WorleyParsons ((WOR)).

And there are a few more AGMs to get through.

Rudi will Skype-linkup with Sky Business on Tuesday morning, 11.15am, to discuss broker calls. He'll appear on the Sky Business channel on Thursday, 12.30-2.30pm and does the Skype-link again on Friday morning, around 11.05am.

This is also the week a select group of paid subscribers gets to spend a whole evening with Rudi. Should be both fun and interesting.
 

For further global economic release dates and local company events please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

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article 3 months old

Weekly Broker Wrap: Macro Outlook, Consumer, Property, Hotels, Gas And Insurance

-Policy support needed for growth
-Consumer positive, despite election
-Declining A-REIT development returns
-War footing with hotels and online agencies
-Flaws in gas reservation policy?
-NZ insurance growth under pressure
 

By Eva Brocklehurst

Macro Outlook

Macquarie suspects the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to cut the cash rate further, to 1.0% from the current 1.75%. Recent weak inflation adds to an already subdued outlook and the broker's former risk case is now the base case.

Domestic demand appears weak and the broker perceives additional policy support is needed to sustain current household spending growth, as support from wealth effects wane.

Macquarie believes it will be harder now to generate and sustain inflation near the RBA's target of 2-3.0%. The broker lowers its long-run inflation target to 2.0% from 2.5% and long-run nominal 10-year bond rate assumption to 3.25% from 3.75%.

Macquarie forecasts a sub-2.0% 10-year bond yield forecast to reflect the new record low in the cash rate, but does not make significant downward adjustments to growth. Growth remains narrowly focused with resource exports the main driver, while domestic demand is muted and fiscal policy points to further consolidation.

The broker also expects the recent strength in the Australian dollar will have a dampening effect on the economy in the first half of 2016 and that further depreciation in the currency is required to secure the transition in the economy.

Australian Consumer

Deutsche Bank contends that elections are not that bad for retailing. The election drag on total retail sales growth is calculated to be a modest 30-40 basis points.

The mid year timing of the upcoming election should also be less of a negative because it won't disrupt Christmas trade, although the impact could be greater if a clear result is not forthcoming. The broker continues to believe the consumer is relatively positive, given low inflation in non-discretionary items such as petrol, rent and utilities.

Deutsche Bank believes Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) will trade well because of the strong housing market, a favourable product cycle and the exit of competitors.

Australian Property

Morgan Stanley is questioning the pay-out ratios of retail Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (A-REITs). Declining development returns are expected to lead to an increasing proportion of capex being used for maintenance purposes.

The broker suspects this may place downward pressure on pay-out ratios, which are currently among the highest globally. The most vulnerable is Vicinity Centres ((VCX) as the company has an expanding tail of underperforming assets.

These could result in further dilution to free funds from disposals beyond current guidance and, if the company reinvests capital into these assets on marginal returns, it will place downward pressure on the pay-out.

Morgan Stanley recommends a switch from Vicinity Centres to GPT Group ((GPT)) given its distribution is covered by cash and the growth prospects are superior.

Hotels And Internet

Hotels have ramped up their online push to reduce the growing share of online travel agencies. As a result, Morgan Stanley observes global brands such as Hilton and Marriott have demanded lower commissions and removed last room availability signs in online sites.

They are encouraging loyalty members to book direct in return for cheaper rates. These brands are then being pushed down in the online agencies' search order.

Given the shifts in the industry the broker expects both earnings and multiples are changing. At this juncture, the case can be made for either side being the winner but the broker envisages potential for 15-30% in share price impact, either positive or negative, for hotel brands and the agencies and this could quickly put a business model at risk or create a price war.

Domestic Gas

The ALP plans to introduce a country-wide gas reservation policy for future LNG projects, which would extend Western Australia's current policy to the east coast, with the intention to reduce the impact of rising prices for the manufacturing sector.

Ord Minnett doubts the efficacy of such a policy, given price increases have been mainly driven by cost inflation and not export parity. The broker believes the relatively high cost of transporting gas currently insulates the southern states from export parity prices.

East coast gas reserves increased to 47,000PJ in 2016 with most of the development underpinning the three LNG projects on Curtis Island. The broker believes the additional requirements on gas producers could stymie much needed reserve developments while east coast reserves are sufficient for just 7-8 years at current rates of use.

NZ Insurance

There is no joy in the trends for general insurance in New Zealand, Macquarie observes. General insurance growth is under pressure and pricing is competitive.

There have been a large number of new entrants in the market and these have focused on commercial lines. AWAC, BHSI and Ando have all been taking market share in commercial, resulting in price pressure.

Meanwhile, personal lines are highly concentrated. Outside of Suncorp ((SUN)), Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Tower ((TWR)) there are few other carriers underwriting personal lines in the country. Macquarie notes IAG has the greatest relative exposure to NZ in general insurance stocks under coverage, at 47% of premiums.
 

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Fedspeak

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 91 points or 0.5% while the S&P lost 0.45 to 2040 and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%.

Jobs Conundrum

Having held their ground on Wednesday, while other sectors responded to the prospect of a Fed rate hike, yesterday the resources sectors gave way. It was nothing about commodity prices on the day, it was about where commodity prices might end up if the US dollar rises on Fed tightening. The offset of the weaker Aussie made no difference, it would seem.

These sectors have run very hard these past couple of months on the commodity price rebound, so it looks like profits are being taken. Materials fell 2.6% yesterday and energy 2.0%, to provide the bulk of market weakness.

Yield sectors – telcos, utilities and supermarkets – continued to be sold, while the banks, healthcare and consumer discretionary all moved little on the session. Yesterday’s jobs numbers showed an unchanged unemployment rate, and appeared to have no exogenous effect on the market.

The jobs data showed an increase of 10,800 in April, roughly in line with expectations. But the aggregate represents a 20,200 rise in part-time jobs and a 9,300 fall in full-time jobs. This has been the trend in recent months.

The March quarter wage price index, released earlier in the week, revealed the weakest wages growth in decades. Dragging on wages growth is hours worked, which fell 1.1% in April to be down 0.5% year on year – the first negative number since May 2013. The fall in hours worked can be explained by the ongoing rise in part-time work and loss of full-time work.

Overall jobs growth over the past four months has averaged only 6,500, Commonwealth Bank’s economists note, which should be sufficient to send the unemployment rate higher on the balance of population growth. But the unemployment rate, steady at 5.7% in April, has been held down by a falling participation rate – fewer people looking for work.

“Digging below the surface shows that today’s employment report is softer than the headline numbers imply,” says CBA.

We might recall this from the RBA’s April policy statement:

“Over the period ahead, new information should allow the Board to assess the outlook for inflation and whether the improvement in labour market conditions evident last year is continuing.”

The outlook for inflation weakened, hence the RBA cut in May. The May statement suggested “Labour market indicators have been more mixed of late”. The subsequent April data look even more mixed. Cleary yesterday’s jobs number only serves to strengthen the case for another RBA rate cut.

Would the RBA go again as early as June? Unlikely. The Fed meets later in June and presumably the RBA would prefer to wait to see if it can score a rate cut by default if the Fed chooses to hike. Mind you, the Aussie, which is holding steady at US$0.7227, has already priced in a second RBA cut.

More Fedspeak

As long as the US economy continues to perform to the expectations of New York Fed president William Dudley, then “I think a tightening in the summer, the June, July timeframe is a reasonable expectation,” Dudley said last night. The Dow subsequently fell another 200 points.

The Dow managed to claw back a hundred points over the course of the afternoon but the theme remains the same – all of a sudden the Fed rate hike no one was expecting in June is now a possibility. Not a strong possibility, despite Fedhead jawboning – the market is currently pricing in a 26% chance – but a possibility nevertheless.

It is assumed, however, that if the Fed does not end up hiking in June or July, the purpose of recent more hawkish commentary and insistence June is “live” is more about making sure markets prepare for when there is a rate hike, maybe later in the year, and not be caught out by one, prompting undue volatility.

After a string of very poor earnings results from US major chain stores, the tide has turned a little as the earnings season draws to a close. Good results were posted last night by a couple of specialist apparel chains, and Wal-Mart surprised and enjoyed a 9% rally, which went a long way to buffering the Dow.

It is more likely, nonetheless, that this is a response to a result that was not as bad as had been feared following earlier shockers from major chains, which had investors dumping Wal-Mart in the lead-up.

A close of 2040 on the S&P500 last night means a breach of the 2043 level, which is technically significant for the simple reason it is the “flat on year” point. Traders have been suggesting a breach of this level could set in trend to a more pronounced down-move.

Commodities

A report suggesting a solid rise in US oil demand last week helped keep prices supported last night. West Texas crude is up US36c at US$48.24/bbl and Brent is up US32c at US$48.86/bbl.

The US dollar index is slightly higher over the period, up 0.1% at 95.30.

Given the LME was closing just as the Fed minutes were released the night before, last night’s price action is more indicative of a response. Aluminium fell 0.5%, copper, lead and nickel 1% and tin and zinc 1.5%.

Iron ore fell US20c to US$55.70/t.

Gold is down US$3.30 at US$1254.70/oz.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 6 points.

The shares of the big miners were weak again in London last night, but it’s a case of who is following who.

Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) holds its AGM today.

It is Rudi's intention to link up with Sky Business through Skype this morning but election coverage might throw a spanner. If the plan goes ahead he should appear around 11.05am.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: June Strengthens

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 3 points while the S&P closed flat at 2047 and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%.

Will They, Won’t They?

While the Australian market is presently not dutifully following Wall Street around, given a widening disparity between the industries that primarily drive each market, US central bank policy is very much a factor Australian investors need to pay heed to. Interest rates connect the world.

On Monday night the Dow fell close to 200 points following stronger than expected US inflation data and Fedspeak reaffirming that the June Fed meeting is “live” and that a rate hike cannot be ruled out. However the US bond market shrugged off the possibility and remained unmoved, as did the US dollar and gold. Last night was a very different story, but we’ll get to that in a minute.

Yesterday the ASX200 plunged 48 points on the open, came back to almost square at lunchtime. It was a battle, it would seem, between those believing a Fed rate hike is possible and those who don’t. Or perhaps between those who think a Fed rate hike is a problem for the Australian market and those who see any dip as a buying opportunity. Or both.

But to further complicate the matter, the morning saw the release of the Australian March quarter wage index data. At 2.1% annualised, the quarter saw the weakest growth on record for the series. This suggests both low inflation and less consumer spending power. And reinforces the potential for another RBA rate cut.

But if the Fed hikes in June, would the RBA hold off? How will it all balance out?

As confusion reigned, the ASX200 fell again in the afternoon, closing down 39. Sector moves suggested yesterday was all about interest rates, and their flow-on effects.

The resource sectors stood aside, balanced by stronger commodity prices. A stronger US dollar weighs on commodity prices but a weaker Aussie dollar improves earnings, so there is some trade-off either way.

Consumer staples fell 1.2% and discretionary 1.5%. Low wages are not promising for retailers, and a Fed hike might prevent another RBA cut.

The banks fell 0.8%. Low wages are not promising for mortgage demand and if the RBA does not cut, demand will not be boosted. Bank yields are less attractive if US rates rise and/or Australian rates don’t fall.

The telcos fell 0.9% and utilities 0.7%. The yield story is the same here.

Healthcare only fell 0.1%. The sector derives a lot of income from offshore, and thus benefits from a weaker Aussie. Industrials fell 1.1%. This sector offers a mixed bag of winners and losers.

The Aussie has fallen over a cent over 24 hours to US$0.7227. Yesterday’s local wage data encouraged further weakness in the currency, albeit it has already fallen quite a way from its recent highs, but last night’s Fed minutes stuck the knife in.

Backflip

When the FOMC released its policy statement following its meeting in April, the tone was dovish. Wall Street reduced expectations of a June rate cut to near zero. This was reinforced by the April US jobs numbers, which were to the low side.

Last night the minutes of that meeting were released, and suggested the FOMC statement on the day was somewhat misleading. This might explain why Fedheads have recently been out and about talking up the possibility of a June rate hike. The Fed is worried markets are not prepared.

The minutes suggested the FOMC is no longer concerned about the global volatility factor, as markets have now recovered from their panic earlier in the year and settled down again. That just leaves US data. While recent data have not been all that strong, the question is whether they are weak enough to justify near-zero interest rates. On a trend basis, the US labour market remains positive, If the CPI data are anything to go by, inflation is heading the right direction.

These are the Fed’s two mandated policy drivers.

The bottom line is, the minutes basically suggested the Fed is not waiting to be given a reason to hike in June, it is waiting for any reason not to hike. Not only is June very much “live”, Wall Street now sees a June hike as very much a possibility.

Having fallen 180 points on Monday night on this very possibility, last night the Dow had rallied back a hundred points ahead of the 2pm release of the minutes. A two hundred point fall ensued on the release, followed by a one hundred point recovery.

Wall Street finished square. Arguably, June rate hike potential has been priced in the night before. But the night before, the US bond market, currency and gold markets had shrugged off the possibility.

Last night the US ten-year yield jumped 12 basis points to 1.88%. The US dollar index jumped 0.7% to 95.20. Gold fell US$20.80 to US$1258.00/oz. Now all the markets are aligned.

The only possible barrier to a June rate hike, assuming no US economic shocks occur between now and June 15, is the Brexit vote. It doesn’t occur until June 23, and some believe the Fed is more likely to hold off until the July meeting in case a Yes vote sparks fresh global turmoil. Recent polls suggest the No vote appears to be gaining traction, nonetheless.

Commodities

For commodities, it was all about the jump in the US dollar that a Fed rate hike implies. Gold’s move has been noted.

West Texas crude is down US71c at US$47.88/bbl and Brent is down US94c at US$48.54/bbl.

The LME was shutting its doors just as the minutes were released so there may yet be a more pronounced reaction tonight, but all metals closed slightly lower bar aluminium, which rose 0.8%.

Iron ore never pays much attention to outside influences. It’s up US20c at US$55.90.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 4 points. While this reflects the flat close on Wall Street, we might also suggest, a la Wall Street, that the local market adjusted yesterday to heightened Fed rate hike possibility.

With regard the Aussie, it might be a whole new ball game this morning when the Australian jobs numbers are released for April. Presumably the market has now become quite short.

Apologies to readers who have been stuffed around by the FNArena calendar suggesting James Hardie ((JHX)) was to report on Tuesday, or on Wednesday. Short of contacting a few hundred companies over the course of a year, we rely on broker calendars, which often clash.

Note also that companies are not legally obliged to advise on a reporting date, or even stick to it if they have.

James Hardie reports today.

Rudi will make his weekly guest appearance on Sky Business today, 12.30-2.30pm and then return for an interview on Switzer TV between 7-8pm.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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