Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 82 points or 0.5% while the S&P gained 0.4% to 2088 and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%.

Nabbed

The ASX200 followed up Wednesday’s 134 point fall with a 46 point fall yesterday but the point to note is that shares in National Australia Bank ((NAB)) have been placed in a trading halt to facilitate Australia’s largest ever capital raising at an extraordinary 25% discount, which is not reflected in those 46 points.

Indeed, the financial sector faired relatively well yesterday with only a 0.4% fall thanks to bargain hunting in Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) when falls across other sectors came in at a consistent 1.0 to 1.5%. The other two standouts were healthcare, which only fell 0.2%, and yield-heavy utilities, which was carted for a second day with a 2.2% fall.

All this fuss over the cash rate going no lower than 2% when some utilities yield 8%, plus franking. And they’re yielding more now for new entrants.

The relative outperformance of the banks, sans NAB, yesterday seems to imply the market sees the capital raising as NAB-specific, for the purpose of floating off Clydesdale Bank in the UK, and not a sector issue. But in its announcement NAB suggested part of the raising will be used to meet tighter capital regulations and whatever else APRA may decide to throw at the lending market. At least one broker believes all of the Big Four will need to raise capital for regulatory purposes. The one bank that might squeak through is CBA due to its current superior capital position.

Beyond the banks, the last two sessions smack of a general groundswell sell-off as a result of the index failing no less than four times to breach 6000. Markets that cannot go up will always go down. RBA policy aside, there may also be an element of moving to the sidelines ahead of Tuesday night’s federal budget.

The NAB announcement yesterday rather sucked the oxygen away from the monthly jobs lottery. On Tuesday the RBA statement noted “available information suggests…stronger growth in employment”, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% from 6.1% in April. The move is immaterial, nonetheless. As CBA’s economists point out, the underlying trend in the unemployment rate is currently to the downside despite the odd monthly fluctuation, consistent with forward indicators (such as ANZ’s job ads series).

And speaking of jobs…

The UK election is taking centre stage as we speak, as anyone who hopped on Sky Business this morning for any overnight news would attest. The exit polls suggest the Tories could form a majority coalition government even with what’s left of the Lib-Dems but it’s early days, so no point in drawing any conclusions.

Across the pond, Wall Street appeared very much in square-up mode last night ahead of tonight’s non-farm payrolls report. Everything that’s been going up lately went down, and vice versa. The US April jobs numbers also appear a bit of a lottery as well, not because the calculation is being questioned but because this week’s weak private sector number has thrown doubt on whether the March quarter snow excuse is actually valid. Thus best not to go in with a big position one way or the other.

US stock markets rebounded to recover what they lost on Wednesday night, the US ten-year bond yield fell back 6 basis points to 2.18% having risen steadily of late, and the US dollar index rebounded 0.4% to 94.54 after a period of correction. As to what Wall Street’s reaction to the jobs number will be is also a bit of a lottery. Is good good or bad, in the context of a Fed rate rise? Is bad thus good, or is bad simply bad?

The steady rise in US bond yields has surprised some, given recent weakness in US data and the shock GDP result would suggest the opposite. But it’s all about differentials. Eurozone QE has only been in play for a couple of months thus is yet, sentiment aside, to really have an impact. But recent eurozone economic data releases have been surprisingly positive and the European quarterly earnings season, which gets a lot less attention than the US season, has also delivered some surprisingly good results.

So why is the German ten-year yield trading near zero? Well actually it’s not anymore. Many a commentator has argued that the bonds of the strong eurozone members have been well overbought, so suddenly there’s been a bit of a rush to the exits. Last night the German yield jumped as much as 22 basis points to 0.8% before settling back to 0.64%. While 0.8% may not seem like much, it’s a lot different to 0.08%.

Slippery Oil

“The oils fell last night as well but only a little bit, however it was enough to evoke calls that we may have now seen the near-term top.”

That’s what I reported yesterday, and it appears those calls may be right. With a little help from the US dollar rebound, West Texas fell US$1.66 to US$58.96/bbl last night and Brent fell US$1.73 to US$65.74/bbl. Given WTI has rebounded over 30% from its low point in mid-March a bit of consolidation is clearly overdue, inventories and rig counts notwithstanding.

Maybe 60 is just a scary number. Last night iron ore fell back US10c to be right on the US$60.00/t mark.

Having moved mostly as a bloc both up and down this week, base metal prices became mixed last night as LME traders, too, await the US jobs number. Aluminium was slapped another 2% and copper lost 0.5%, but nickel and zinc were stronger.

Gold fell US$6.80 to US$1184.40/oz which I can put down to the stronger greenback, although the daily relationship is never consistent.

Today

Wall Street’s rebound does not appear to have sparked up any thoughts of bargain hunting on the local market today amongst futures traders, given the SPI Overnight closed down 8 points.

More colour will be added to the RBA’s apparent end to its easing cycle today when the central bank releases its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. China’s April trade numbers are out today and should prove fodder for the resource sectors after two days of falls.

All eyes tonight will be on whether or not the UK election can be called and on the US jobs numbers.

Macquarie Group ((MQG)) will release its full-year profit result today.
 

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By Greg Peel

The Dow fell 142 points or 0.8% while the S&P lost 1.2% to 2089 as the Nasdaq fell 1.6%.

Whiplash

When did Bridge Street become Wall Street? When did the day of an RBA policy statement become as wild as the day of a Fed statement? Yesterday, that’s when. Let’s check the tape:

At 10.20am, the ASX200 was up 74 points. At 1.00pm, it was up 6 points. At 2.31pm, it was up 61 points. At 3.10pm, it was down 24 points. At 4pm, it closed down one point, giving the impression of a quiet session.

Yesterday was a gamed played in two halves: before the rate cut and after the rate cut. When ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) provided a more positive earnings report before the bell yesterday than Westpac ((WBC)) had the day before, fears were allayed of bank-wide weakness, which had led the sector down on Monday. So investors piled back into the banks, and the index surge from the open.

Hang on, said the market. An RBA rate cut is already baked in and we’re up another 1%? What if they don’t cut? It was not, yesterday morning, beyond the realm of possibilities. So down we came, before positioning at only a modest gain before the 2.30pm RBA announcement. When the rate cut was announced, the high frequency computers went berserk, programmed to buy on the “good” news of a rate cut. But suddenly they felt very alone.

Here’s why…

That’ll Do Ya

In its April statement, the RBA board said:

“In Australia the available information suggests that growth is continuing at a below-trend pace, with overall domestic demand growth quite weak as business capital expenditure falls. As a result, the unemployment rate has gradually moved higher over the past year.”

In yesterday’s statement, it said:

“In Australia, the available information suggests improved trends in household demand over the past six months and stronger growth in employment.”

April:

“Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target. The Board will continue to assess the case for such action at forthcoming meetings.”

May:

“At today's meeting, the Board judged that the inflation outlook provided the opportunity for monetary policy to be eased further, so as to reinforce recent encouraging trends in household demand.”

In one month the Australian economic outlook has gone from “below-trend” to “improving”. And the board has shifted from “continue to assess the case” to, well, by omission, not continuing to assess the case. Only because inflation is low did the RBA decide the economy could handle another cut. And there was no suggestion of a further cut. We’ve had two this year, in February and May. In 2013 the RBA cut twice, before sitting back for 16 months to gauge the impact.

The Aussie dollar similarly spiked down initially, on the rate itself, and then went flying up once someone took a closer look at the statement. The money markets had not just baked in a May rate cut, they were assuming an even chance of a second cut this year. The Aussie is up 1.4% to US$0.7942 over 24 hours, aided by 0.3% drop last night in the US dollar index to 95.12.

Grexit Back On

Just when it looked like both Greece and its lenders were intent on finding a middle ground, last night it all fell apart again.

No deal will be possible until the European Commission and the IMF reduce the number of red lines they’re demanding, said a Greek government official, in references to the lenders’ insistence on extensive reforms. And what has been frustrating Greece even further is that the EC and IMF are now demanding different “red lines” in contradiction to one another.

The ECB governing council meets tomorrow night, and must decide whether to again extend emergency funding to Greek banks because the impasse is dragging on further. Given the risk of handing over such money, the ECB came under criticism for doing so the first time around. But while Greece may survive its payment schedule in May, beyond that it appears the country will simply be broke.

So now what? If we were on QI, this is when we’d be holding up our “Nobody Knows” cards.

The news from Athens sent the German stock market spiralling down 2.5% last night, and the French market down 2.1%. Eurozone bond yields, which had risen notably as late as Monday night, all fell back again.

Meanwhile, Wall Street was opening.

Trade Blow-Out

Aside from the news from Europe, Wall Street was hit with some alarming US data last night.

The March trade balance showed a 43% surge in deficit, the biggest single month jump on record. It was all about a big jump in imports with no balancing jump in exports. It is also, nevertheless, explained away by the fact US West Coast ports were shut down due to industrial action early in the year, meaning imported goods were stuck on docks. The dispute was settled in March and suddenly all the goods flowed out, and were recorded.

So it should not be an issue, but for the fact it means that when the US March quarter GDP is revised to include the month of March, what was a mere 0.2% growth result in the first estimate will swing into the negative.

So between Greece and a contractionary US economy, and the fact every time the Dow gets over 18,000 it has to go back below it again, it was a weak session on Wall Street. Of particular note was another panic exit of high-PE biotech names, sending the Nasdaq plunging 1.6%.

The US dollar also fell, as noted, and so did US bond rates. The ten-year yield is up another 4 basis points to 2.18%.

More Stimulus Please

As the European stock and bond markets tumbled on Greek fears, no one much noticed that the European Commission last night raised its 2015 economic growth forecast for the eurozone to 1.5% from a previous 1.3%. Commodity markets noticed, however.

And on the LME, which had been closed on Monday night given the holiday in the UK, the focus of attention was the weak Chinese PMI data delivered on Friday and Monday. With Chinese manufacturing falling into contraction, the expectation is for more stimulus measures to be implemented by Beijing.

That was enough to send base metals surging once more last night. While tin only managed half a percent, and copper one percent, lead and zinc jumped 2%, aluminium 3% and nickel over 3.5%.

Spot iron ore rose US$1.30 to US$59.10/t.

The oils were also stronger, but playing a part was news protests at Libyan ports were preventing oil exports from leaving. West Texas jumped US$1.65 to close above 60 for the first time in five months, at US$60.68, while Brent rose US$1.03 to US$67.49/bbl.

And yes, gold is gravitating back towards 1200 again, with a US$5.20 gain last night to US$1193.00/oz.

Today

Greece is an issue and Wall Street was down, but one might suggest the bulk of the 49 point or 0.8% fall in the SPI Overnight by the close this morning is to do with all the attention given, since yesterday afternoon, to assumptions the RBA has now ended its easing cycle.

Retail sales numbers are out in Australia today, along with new home sales data. HSBC will release its take on China’s service sector PMI.

In the US, the ADP private sector jobs report will provide the usual curtain raiser for Friday’s non-farm payrolls.

On the local stock front, it's Commonwealth Bank’s ((CBA)) turn today to send bank investors into a frenzy, one way or the other, when it provides a quarterly update. Woolworths ((WOW)) will hold a strategy day, and presumably reveal March quarter sales data, while all eyes will be on the BHP Billiton ((BHP)) extraordinary meeting, in which shareholders will vote on the South32 demerger.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business, Market Moves, 5.30-6pm today.

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By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 74 points or 0.4% while the S&P lost 0.4% to 2106 and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%.

Reversal

It is a truth universally acknowledged that if a market simply refuses to go up, it must thus go down. Usually three failed attempts at a technical level are enough to trigger a pullback, but in Australia’s case a fourth failed attempt by the ASX200 to breach 6000 only increased the likelihood.

So that’s one reason we fell 100 points yesterday. Clearly another reason was Tuesday night’s break-out rally in the Aussie dollar to a three-month high over 80, killing off all the good work done to graft down towards 75 and provide some encouragement for the local economy.

Then there’s the iron ore price. It’s one thing for the oil price to have bottomed and recovered, but it’s another thing for the iron ore price. Joe Hockey thankfully provided the rebound trigger when he called iron ore at 35, and now we’re back near 60. The rebound may yet prove fleeting (and we did see a drop last night), but the market is now wondering whether it’s enough to prevent the RBA from providing another rate cut.

To a combination of technical selling, strong Aussie and reduced rate cut expectations we can throw in a report yesterday from Goldman Sachs suggesting that Australia is indeed at risk of losing its AAA rating.

Interestingly, aside for the Aussie rebound, all of this was known last Friday when the index rallied 80 points. And that rally was largely driven by the same rising iron ore price.

Selling was relatively even across sectors yesterday with the exception of the banks, which did the bulk of the damage by falling 2.3%. If the RBA does not cut, that’s negative for the banks. If Australia loses its AAA rating, that’s negative for the banks. Three of the four big banks will report half year earnings next week.

Mario’s Headache

The rebound in the Aussie comes as a surprise because every man and his dog had assumed the US economy would continue to improve in 2015 and the Fed would respond with a rate rise. The same assumption was behind expectations the euro would fall to parity with the US dollar, and possibly below, on a combination of a strong US economy, and thus dollar, and ECB QE.

Well last night the euro was nowhere near parity, and has rebounded back to US$1.11. The trigger for the latest move up was last night’s US March quarter GDP result. It’s only a first estimate, but at 0.2% growth is a big disappointment compared to 1.0% forecasts.

The German stock market in particular, and French stock market as well, have been rallying strongly in past months on expectations for ongoing falls in the euro, thus improving the economic fortunes of the two big exporter countries. The euro has rallied quietly back as weaker US economic data have trickled out of late, but last night’s GDP was the final straw for stocks. The German DAX plunged 3.2% and the French CAC 2.6%.

The US dollar index fell a full 1% to 95.14.

Fed Acknowledgement

Yes, the US economy has clearly slowed, the FOMC acknowledged in its policy statement last night. However a lot of it to do with “transitory factors”, the statement suggested, just as the same statement had suggested in 2014. For “transitory” read “snow”.

In 2014 the US economy turned around from a contraction into the March quarter to 5% growth by the September quarter. March weakness indeed proved transitory. But will 2015 see a straightforward repeat? Not everyone believes so. For one thing, in 2014 the first Fed rate rise was still at least a year away and the US dollar was yet to accelerate its rally. The greenback is a lot stronger now, weighing on US exports.

In its previous policy statement, the Fed omitted the word “patient” and moved simply to a data-dependent stance, but Janet Yellen did specifically rule out an April rate rise. No great surprise there, but in last night’s statement, the FOMC did not specifically rule out a June rate rise.

So June is still on the table. However, at this stage June is considered unlikely unless the June quarter sees an extraordinary economic turnaround. September has now firmed as favourite for the first Fed move.

This is not particularly new news, so despite being down 150 points ahead of the statement release last night on the weak GDP result, the Dow recovered in the afternoon to a relatively benign close compared to markets in other economies.

Not so benign was the US bond market. Although the Fed in theory left the door open for a June rate hike, its acknowledgment of economic weakness and the market’s assumption nothing will happen before September should not have had much impact on US bond yields. But the US ten-year yield jumped 6 basis points to 2.04%.

The reason is that because for the same reason European stocks were sold last night, so were European bonds. The eurozone bond market is heavily overbought in many an analyst’s view on the back of ECB QE and ripe for a correction. Last night the German ten-year jumped 12 basis points to 0.28%. US bonds were sold on the differential.

Iron Ore Turnaround

It was inevitable that after a strong run, we would see some consolidation in the iron ore price. Last night iron ore fell US$2.30 to US$56.90/t, killing off any hopes for a 60 figure for the time being.

Oil prices had appeared to be consolidating after their strong rebounds but the big drop in the greenback last night, and lower than expected weekly US inventories, provided a second wind. West Texas jumped US$1.74 or 3% to a new 2015 high US$58.65/bbl. Brent rose US97c or 1.5% to US$65.58/bbl.

The LME closed just before the release of the Fed statement but did see the weak US GDP result and the falling greenback. Traders were not prepared to take any risk ahead of the Fed so metal prices were all stronger but on small moves, expect for tin, which fell 1%.

Gold just cannot break out of the gravitational pull of the 1200 mark to any extent, or for any length of time. Last night it fell US$7.20 to US$1204.70/oz.

Today

Technicians will tell you that any breach of 5850 for the ASX200 will signal a more extensive pullback, and yesterday we closed at 5835. With expectations of a pending Fed rate rise, ongoing strength in the greenback and a weaker Aussie now being reconsidered, global markets may be set for further adjustment and subsequent volatility. The SPI Overnight closed down 44 points or 0.8%.

Tonight will see a flash estimate of eurozone April CPI along with jobs numbers, which the ECB will be closely watching. The US will see personal income & spending.

The Bank of Japan will hold a policy meeting today.

In Australia we’ll see private sector credit numbers, which are important to RBA policy.

On the local stock front we’ll see yet another handful of resource sector production reports, a quarterly update from Mirvac Group ((MGR)), an interim earnings result from Ten Network ((TEN)) and Santos ((STO)) will hold its AGM.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business at midday.
 

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By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 72 points or 04% while the S&P gained 0.3% to 2114 and the Nasdaq lost 0.1%.

Currency Crisis

On Monday the ASX200 hit an intraday high of 5985 following a rally largely driven by the iron ore price rebound, but supported by renewed buying in yield stocks. Yesterday, despite another solid gain in iron ore, the market retreated on profit-taking. All sectors bar the supermarkets were trimmed, including the previously surging materials and energy sectors.

If the ASX200 were Icarus then the 6000 level is the sun. We might call this the fourth failed attempt at an assault on the big figure, and a further indication, specifically with regard the yield stocks, that the line across which “overvaluation” is deemed is plain to see.

In focus on the local bourse today will nevertheless be overnight action in the Aussie dollar. On the RBA’s decision not to cut this month, the rebound in oil and iron ore prices, Chinese stimulus and the expectation the Fed will raise later rather than sooner, the Aussie has been steadily creeping up from the bottom end of its recently entrenched trading range to the top end. Last night it broke out, and all hell broke loose.

A combination of short-covering and technical buying saw the Aussie surge a whopping 2.2% to be currently at US$0.8022. A 0.7% fall in the US dollar index to 96.08, and arguably a growing belief the greenback is now undergoing a clear pullback, provided last night’s catalyst.

What does the RBA do now? At 76, the board was still calling the currency overvalued (albeit specifically against non-US currencies). If the RBA is wavering over whether to cut or not to cut next week, maybe an 80 Aussie might provide a prompt.

Greece Watch

In last night’s episode, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras warned he may have to hold a referendum if Greece’s creditors continue to insist on strict austerity measures as a requirement for further bail-out funds. This is a second clear indication Tsipras has found himself in an untenable position – first benching his firebrand finance minister from the negotiating team in the hope the creditors would capitulate and now all but admitting Greece simply needs the money.

Otherwise, Greece could withdraw itself from the eurozone. Were Tsipras to agree to the required austerity measures, he would be completely contradicting the platform on which his party campaigned for and won the general election. Thus a referendum would be necessary, but what would it achieve? The Greeks would likely stick to their guns and denounce austerity, and we’d be back where we are right now. Presumably Tsipras would expect the ECB to extend further bridging loans to keep the country afloat while the referendum is organised and conducted. He would buy more time. But time for what? To hope the IMF-ECB-EC caves in?

Can we please just get this over and done with?

In other EU news, the first estimate of UK March quarter GDP came in last night at a much lower than expected 0.3% growth, slowing annual growth down to 2.4% from 2.8% in the December quarter.

Weak Data

Huge fun and games on the NYSE last night as Twitter’s earnings result, scheduled for aftermarket release, was legitimately published by a third party inside the last hour of trade. Twitter called a trading halt before bringing its release timing forward and confirming the accuracy of the “leak”, which featured a miss on first quarter revenues and disappointing second quarter revenue guidance. Once re-opened, Twitter shares closed down 18%.

The early results were published, ironically, on Twitter.

The afternoon’s entertainment also came with a warm-up act in the morning session when news hit the wires the Iranian navy had seized a US cargo vessel in the Persian Gulf. Up here near all-time highs the air is thin and the market is trigger happy, and so the Dow plunged 100 points very quickly.

It was then revealed the cargo ship was in fact flying a Marshall Islands flag and thus the Dow rebounded to right back from whence it came.

Beyond the day’s entertainment, reality saw the Conference Board monthly measure of US consumer confidence fall to 95.2 from 101.4 in March when economists had forecast 102.5. The Richmond Fed activity index recovered to minus 3 from minus 8 in March when minus 2 was expected. And the Case-Shiller house price index saw a recovery to 5.0% annual growth, suggesting the US housing market is picking up again after a dip.

Thus the data remain mixed, but the confidence measure was the one the market focused on. As noted, the US dollar index dropped 0.7%. Wall Street held its ground given any weak data means the Fed will not jump early. Gold rallied another US$10.20 to US$1211.90/oz which this time makes sense, if one assumes the Fed holds off.

But bucking the trend was the US ten-year yield, which rose 5 basis points to 1.97%. Traders were simply squaring up ahead of tonight’s Fed statement release.

Commodity Mix

Iron ore is up another US50c to US$59.20/t.

The weakening US dollar is supporting commodity prices at present, but after a couple of solid sessions, trading was mixed on the LME last night. Aluminium decided to suddenly jump 2% and copper gained another 0.5%, but all other metals fell.

The oils matched the stock market response vis a vis the erroneous Persian Gulf news by leaping up and then falling back again. West Texas closed down US8c at US$56.91/bbl and Brent fell US22c to US$64.61/bbl.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 11 points or 0.2%.

All eyes on the Fed tonight, although given all and sundry are arguing that the crucial meeting will be in June, one way or the other, not much in the way of new revelations is expected from the FOMC this time around. Also in the frame will be the first estimate of US March quarter GDP, for which 1.0% growth is the consensus forecast.

Japan is closed today.

On the local stock front we’ll see another handful of resource sector quarterly reports as well as an interim earnings result from BT Investment management ((BTT)) and a quarterly sales report form Wesfarmers ((WES)).

Rudi will appear on Sky Business twice today. First on Market Moves, 5.30-6pm and later, as host, on Your Money, Your Call Equities, 8-9pm.
 

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