In this week's Weekly Insights:

- The Trend Is Your Friend Until It Ends
- It's A Joke
- The Bubble Called Lithium
- Oil's New/Old Paradigm
- Catching Up On The (Bear Market) Past
- Rudi On Tour
- Nothing Ever Changes, Or Does It?
- Rudi On TV

The Trend Is Your Friend Until It Ends

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

"Are we waiting with ever-growing impatience for the economy to get back to normal, or has the economy shifted to a 'new normal'?" (...)
"Trouble is, neither I nor anyone else can say with confidence what the answer is."
[Sydney Morning Herald economics editor Ross Gittins]

Just as well we are coping well amidst a global equities bear market.

No. It's not a typo. US-based market trader and publisher of his own daily The Gartman Letter, Dennis Gartman, with more than thirty years of uninterrupted, hands-on daily financial markets experience, just about every other day or so reminds his global subscribers Gartman's index for global equities is still down around -17% from last year's peak. Year-to-date the index is down around -3.5%.

Similar to my own view, Gartman adheres no value to the oft referenced -20% rule, which he suggests is for morons and brainless commentators only.

Investors should keep in mind that with US equities holding up as well as they've done, the situation/performance of equities outside the USA has been a lot worse. Australia sits somewhere in the middle, with the ASX200 balancing on a fine demarcation between positive and negative performance since January 1st. Including dividends, the index is up circa 2% year-to-date.

The schism identified by Gartman between the general view and what has actually occurred globally post May 2015 is quite striking, to say the least. It also identifies an equally striking gap between equities in the USA and in most markets across the rest of the world. That difference might have become more important than ever.

It's A Bear Market

Analysts from global investment researchers and wealth managers GaveKal Dragonomics visited Sydney last week and true to form for an independent collective which was two-thirds founded by French-born Gaves (Charles & Louis-Vincent), there is no strict house view, but instead healthy discussions internally about key dilemmas and where financial markets are at.

Part of GaveKal's view suggests we are only at the early stage of yet another nasty bear market. This view is easily illustrated by the chart below, showing the MSCI World index and how it ostensibly peaked in May last year, then rolled over with two visible counter-trend rallies in the meantime.




If history is our guide, and the trend post May-2015 remains in-line to what appears the path of least resistance post such market peaks, then there's little denying it appears there's a lot more downside yet to show up before we can start talking about a genuine new bull market for equities again.

It's A Bull Market

In line with the inconsistency also identified by Gartman, the opposing view inside GaveKal is that US equities are most likely experiencing another strong bull market trend upwards. As the leader among global equities, this should bode well for the rest of the world with those markets poised to play catch up once investors and policy makers get their heads around current headwinds and uncertainties.

This view of a new bull market is illustrated by the S&P500 chart below. It represents a key justification as to why experts globally see a continuation of the new "Risk On" environment that has announced itself since mid-February on the back of a market supportive Federal Reserve.




Lower For Longer Still The Trend

Assuming the Federal Reserve finally follows through on its intention to "normalise" US interest rates later this year, it remains yet to be seen whether this will break the back of the Lower for Longer trend that has remained firmly established post Lehman Brothers' collapse in late 2008.

Most investors would not have noticed, but bond yields are still falling in Emerging Markets and the Reserve Bank in Australia is now back on the path of monetary loosening. It's the key reason as to why Australian equities do not seem to want to go down this month.

Analysts at Platinum Asset Management equally presented their views to clients, media and investors recently. Their base case is rising interest rates are now a danger to global stability; in a world that has accustomed itself to low rates for such a prolonged time even the tiniest change to the upside can have major ramifications.

Platinum doesn't think the Federal Reserve can muster a lot of ambition when it comes to "normalising" interest rates. Otherwise, if they do, they'll be confronted with today's new reality and its limitations. Cue market turmoil in January and February.

Short term turmoil and market uncertainties aside, Platinum is predicting a new era for central bank policies around the world. This time policies are aimed at supporting inflation from the downside, instead of suppressing it, which means interest rates and bond yields are poised to remain below annual consumer price inflation (CPI) for a long time. Think 20, maybe 25 years.

In Platinum's view, we are only in year eight since the GFC effectively gave birth to the present Lower for Longer. This implies we are likely not even half-way through this monetary adjustment/healing process.

Platinum's analysis incorporates historical research done by Credit Suisse which identified two precedents in human history. Both the 1890s and the 1930s required at least 25 years before bond yields started "normalising" in substantial manner.
 

Investment Strategies For The New Era

How does Lower for Longer affect investment strategies? Platinum believes there's only one modern precedent for investors to take lessons from and that is Japan post the late 1980s. Since the late 1990s, Japanese equities have only generated returns to the tune of 1.5% on average annually, so blindly following the nation's main index doesn't seem to be the best strategy going forward.

Platinum's own Japan Fund has generated 14.5% on average per annum since 1998. What were the strategies that helped the fund outperform the moribund broader market in Japan? (Note also: Japan now has had official interest rates at 1% or below since July 1995; approaching 21 years and still counting).

Extrapolating the Japanese experience into today's global context, buying companies with the fastest growth under their belt is not the best strategy to employ, explains Platinum. In Japan, buying companies with circa 7% growth at a Price-Earnings multiple of 20 has proved the superior strategy. Other strategies that have worked well are buying "yield", oft the highest in each sector, as well as undervalued companies.

Post-GFC Observations

On my own observations, Platinum's experience in Japan merely supports the key trends witnessed in the Australian share market post-GFC. Yield stocks have widely outperformed the broader market and they continue to do so year-to-date in 2016. Buying the highest yield, however, is not necessarily a guaranteed success as investors have been quick to abandon ship in case of operational difficulties and uncertainties. This is why REITs and stocks like Transurban ((TCL)) and Sydney Airport ((SYD)) have significantly outperformed Telstra ((TLS)) and the banks.

But maybe the above sentence should be turned on its head: if the banks and Telstra had not encountered the growth problems they have, their performance might have kept pace with REITs, Transurban, Sydney Airport and the like. If, however, lower interest rates/bond yields continue to command investors' focus, then even the banks and Telstra will perform. As a matter of fact, a reversal of fortune appears to be taking place right here, right now.

Also, investors might feel heartened that, no matter the general climate or new context, buying assets that have fallen out of favour and that are therefore heavily undervalued remains a valid strategy. This is the old tried and proven Warren Buffett/Intelligent Investor through-the-cycle market approach. However, in a world wherein sustainable growth is harder to come by, buying cheap assets might require a more active buy-and-sell strategy. Recent experiences in Australia suggest once stocks such as Fairfax Media, Billabong International and WorleyParsons recover from their lows, they are not by default destined for ongoing sustainable gains.

Also, needless to say but "cheap" doesn't always translate into "excellent value", especially not in the short term. Flight Centre ((FLT)) shares must have looked genuinely attractive to all and sundry last week when they sank to well below $40. Having issued yet another profit warning (this is turning into a miserable track record), the shares fell nearly 9% on Monday. Kudos to the team at Macquarie who last week downgraded on the conviction a profit warning was but a matter of time (See Stock Analysis on the FNArena website).

What in particular intrigued me was that the best performing strategy has been to buy moderately growing companies at relatively premium valuation, yet not too elevated. Platinum Asset Management obviously has not done the same market analysis I have done, they are probably not familiar with my personal research and analysis at all, but I can smell a striking resemblance with my own All-Weather Performers. Many of these stocks have not shown spectacular growth post-GFC, but their share prices have consistently been at a market premium.

Their performances for shareholders have been exceptionally sweet (as anyone can see from the monthly update on share prices FNArena produces for paid subscribers, see also bottom of this story).

Many All-Weather Performer also displays a remarkably lower volatility in share price. This is not something that has come up in the past six weeks or so. This is one of the key characteristics as to why these stocks are very much tailored for the modern investment context, as I have argued on many occasions prior.

Hence why, again, I see an overlap with the following market observation published last week on US equities:

"Low-volatility stocks have been handily beating their high-volatility peers. Over the past 12 months, returns in low-beta stocks have been good, while high-beta stocks have been horrid. The difference in returns is the largest since 2002 and historically when low-beta stocks have so greatly outperformed high-beta ones, it led to trouble for stocks in general. It didn't pay to focus on high-beta stocks until they started to outperform again."
[Jason Goepfert, SentimentTrader]

In particular technical traders are very much unaware of anything new under the sun amidst falling bond yields and decelerating global growth. In their universe "low volatility" automatically means "Risk Off". However, every astute market observer in Australia has by now discovered that "defensive" stocks such as Amcor ((AMC)), Burson Group ((BAP)), CSL ((CSL)), Sydney Airport, Transurban and the likes, do not simply outperform when things get hairy in the share market; these stocks have outperformed for years now, and they continue their outperformance in 2016 (I am referring to sustainable gains, not including temporary upswings for volatile, high risk propositions).

Commodities Post The Bottom-Up Rally

Contrary to the All-Weather Performers mentioned above, commodities and shares in commodity producers have not performed well post 2011. There is an argument to be made that commodities already peaked in 2007 and only temporary stimulus from China instigated a temporary reprieve from the post-peak downward move. Alas, as China stopped stimulating, the sector as a whole embarked on a gradual slide into relentless shareholder misery.

Broader picture, global growth remains sluggish, inflation is low but the US dollar has been stopped in its rally and China is stimulating again. The latter two factors proved strong enough to trigger both an unexpected and unexpectedly strong come-back for the sector. Individual commodities such as iron ore and crude oil also enjoyed supply disruptions, which further enhanced their rallies.

Production cuts are happening, here and there, but higher prices are not helping the necessary market rebalancing. Most analysts, including the aforementioned Platinum Asset Management, cannot get excited because, in general terms, over-supply still dominates while China's stimulus is seen as temporary only. For how long exactly remains a matter of public debate.

I do believe divergences in supply-demand & inventories dynamics will become increasingly important from here onwards and this should translate in more specific price action for each commodity independently. As things stand, the outlook for the likes of lead, zinc, cobalt and lithium looks better than for aluminium, LNG, copper and nickel, but things can move quickly in this space. And there's absolutely no consensus regarding what you just read.

I remain equally unenthusiastic about gold at the current market juncture. A more placid US dollar on the back of moderate interest rate expectations in the US is no doubt a positive for gold, but only in a relatively mild sense, and probably already priced in given bullion's 20% gains thus far this year. Low inflation removes yet another (flawed) argument.

Of course, if the pro-bear market argument wins the case in the year ahead one should be pleased with plenty of gold protection/exposure, but aren't markets positioned for the pro-US equities bull market at the moment?

It's A Joke

Three investors are engaged in a discussion on the status of financial markets in a famous steak house in the Big City.
At one point a knife falls off the table and plants itself in the foot of one of the men (of course, they're all men).

Clearly hurting, the guy asks his neighbour: why didn't you try to catch it?
The second investor responds: I am a technical trader. We avoid catching falling knifes. Why didn't you move your foot?
The first investor responds: I am a fundamentalist. I didn't think it would drop so low.
He looks at the third investor who responds: I am a contrarian. I had my hands knee-high in anticipation of the bounce, but it didn't.

The joke above has partially come to life at casa FNArena. I think it's already amusing as is, but I am still opening it up to contributions from our audience: tell us, how can we make this joke even better. Any suggestions?

Send your tips/ideas/improvements to info@fnarena.com. If we really achieve a better, crowd-contributing end result, we'll come up with a suitable reward. Surely the challenge is on?!

The Bubble Called Lithium

How do you know when a bubble is forming? Maybe when every mining explorer is trying to convince the share market it does have a noteworthy connection with "lithium".

Or maybe when every stockbroker in town starts issuing reports on the sector? Commodities analysts at Citi were the latest to join the queue on Monday and the following might well be the key sentence in that report:

"We remain cautious towards CY17 as new production enters the market but we don’t yet anticipate a significant price correction."

Last week, Canaccord Genuity released their in-depth take on lithium for the decade ahead. A brief summary would be: exciting short term, exciting long term, less so in the middle. That part in the middle is when supply, which is starting to kick in already, is believed to put the global lithium market in surplus for up to three years (see base case scenario chart below).




A few base case pieces of advice for those investors (traders?) willing to command their own slice of the overall share market exuberance for everything lithium in 2016: enjoy it while it lasts; don't get stuck with shares in a worthless explorer that is never going to develop anything; draw lessons from Paladin Energy (uranium) and from Lynas Corp (rare earths) and do not doubt the following statement: there will be tears, guaranteed.

FNArena published its own update on the sector on 16th May: The Power Of Lithium.

Oil's New/Old Paradigm

Energy markets have been significantly transformed in years past, not in the least because the strong bloc of OPEC producers essentially is no longer.

Saudi Arabia is playing home-oriented politics these days and judging by the many research reports on the country and its future that have been issued over the past six months or so, the Saudi Kingdom really is focused on survival and a lot less on what Venezuela and Iraq might think about production and price for a barrel of heavy or sweet crude.

That much is general knowledge these days. But have investors properly thought through all the consequences of this new environment for crude oil prices?

Research house and manager of funds GaveKal Dragonomics sent two of its founding analysts, Anatole Kaletsky and Louis-Vincent Gave, to Sydney last week to update clients, prospects and media about their left-of-consensus views on various matters. One eye-catching view is that history of oil markets can be marked as "strong OPEC" and "weak OPEC".

In the first environment, oil prices are high and strong and they trade well above long term averages. In the second scenario, there no longer is monopolistic pricing, and the market tends to take guidance from marginal producer's cost levels to decide where oil should be trading at.




Right now, OPEC is gone, done and dusted, argues GaveKal, which means much lower prices should be expected. GaveKal thinks US$50/bbl is going to act more as a ceiling for the time being.

This is definitely more subdued than what analysts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting for the years ahead. Now that fears about US$20/bbl have been put to bed, Goldmans updated long-term price forecasts are for a trading range US$53-63/bbl (Brent) long-term.

This forecast is based upon Goldman's US based experts estimating the US shale industry needs US$50-55/bbl to stay viable. With further technological advances, this could drop to below US$50/bbl by 2020 on their estimation.

These views/forecasts certainly put a big question mark over valuations for many an energy producer in the local share market. The team at UBS, for one, cannot get tired pointing out most share prices imply oil priced above US$60/bbl already.

No surprise thus, Goldman Sachs' latest sector update includes a reiteration of Sell ratings for Santos ((STO)) and Beach Energy ((BPT)), for exactly that reason.

Catching Up On The (Bear Market) Past

There's no denying a change in the outlook for domestic interest rates is providing support for the Australian share market. Forget about indices revisiting prior lows. Instead, now the hunt is on to participate in equities on the "lower for longer" outlook.

There is no need for #NigelNoMates to stick around, at least in the medium term. Those readers who'd like to look back at the opening stories for the year, when things looked a lot different, can do so via the list below (in reverse order):

- Rudi's View: 2016 is The Year Of Conviction

- Rudi's View: Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad Bear?

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 1

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 2

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 3

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 4

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 5

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 6

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 7

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 8

Rudi On Tour

I will be presenting:

- To a Selected Group of FNArena Subscribers, "An Evening With Rudi", in Sydney, 26 May (sold out)

- To Melbourne chapter of the Australian Shareholders' Association (ASA) on 6 July

- To a Selected Group of FNArena Subscribers, "An Evening With Rudi", in Melbourne, 6 July (sold out)

- At the Australian Investors' Association's (AIA) National Conference in August on Queensland's Gold Coast.

- To Chatswood chapter of Australian Investors' Association (AIA) on September 7, 7pm, Chatswood RSL

Nothing Ever Changes, Or Does It?

Yes, of course, investing in the share market is never really different and best working strategies today are the same that worked pre-GFC. Seriously. I tell you, seriously.



Now that we had a good laugh about it, let's get straight to business. This is a low growth environment. Has been since 2010 (it was masked at the time because of the V-shaped recovery from the global recession) and it is not likely to change fundamentally in the near term. I wrote a book about this (see below). This means investment strategies must adapt. You'll be turning your portfolio into a wish list for dinosaurs otherwise (and your returns will be a reflection of it).

Those not afraid to contemplate "this time is different" can subscribe to FNArena and read all about it in our bonus eBooklets 'Make Risk Your Friend' (free with a paid 6 or 12 months subscription) plus the freshly published eBook 'Change. Investing in a low growth world' (equally free with subscription, or available through Amazon and other online distributors).

Here's the link to Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Change-Investing-Low-Growth-World-ebook/dp/B0196NL3KW/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1454908593&sr=1-1&keywords=change.investing+in+a+low+growth+world

See also further below.

Rudi On TV

- On Tuesday, around 11.15am, on Sky Business, I shall make a brief appearance through Skype-link to discuss broker ratings for less than ten minutes
- I will be appearing as guest on Sky Business, 12.30-2.30pm, on Thursday
- On Friday, around 11.05am, on Sky Business, I shall make a brief appearance through Skype-link to discuss broker ratings for less than ten minutes

(This story was written on Monday 23 May 2016. It was published on the day in the form of an email to paying subscribers at FNArena).

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website.

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: info@fnarena.com or via Editor Direct on the website).

****

BONUS PUBLICATIONS FOR FNARENA SUBSCRIBERS

Paid subscribers to FNArena receive several bonus publications, at no extra cost, including:

- The AUD and the Australian Share Market (which stocks benefit from a weaker AUD, and which ones don't?)
- Make Risk Your Friend. Finding All-Weather Performers, January 2013 (The rationale behind investing in stocks that perform irrespective of the overall investment climate)
- Make Risk Your Friend. Finding All-Weather Performers, December 2014 (The follow-up that accounts for an ever changing world and updated stock selection)
- Change. Investing in a Low Growth World. eBook that sells through Amazon and other channels. Tackles the main issues impacting on investment strategies today and the world of tomorrow. This book should transform your views and your investment strategies. Can you afford not to read it?

Subscriptions cost $380 for twelve months or $210 for six and can be purchased here (depending on your status, a subscription to FNArena might be tax deductible): https://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_signup

FNArena has reformatted its monthly price tracker file for All-Weather Performers. We have updated until April 30. Paying subscribers can request a copy at info@fnarena.com 

In this week's Weekly Insights:

- Lower For Longer Remains In Focus
- Sell Resources In May?
- Expert Equity Tips For Aussie Investors
- Catching Up On The (Bear Market) Past
- Rudi On Tour
- Nothing Ever Changes, Or Does It?
- Rudi On TV

Lower For Longer Remains In Focus

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

"The most divisive stocks in Australia are not BHP Billiton or Woolworths. They are Transurban, GPT, Sydney Airport and friends, the stocks every value manager loves to hate because of their sensational valuations and flawless share price performance."
[Journalist Vesna Poljak in the AFR last weekend]

I don't like the term "defensives" when it comes to labeling stocks on the share market. I find it's often used in the wrong manner and only serves to confuse investors who already have so much daily market noise to cope with.

Woolworths ((WOW)) is supposedly "defensive", yet shareholders saw the value of their shares decline by more than one third over the past two years. Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) also is often labeled "defensive" and of "high quality", yet its shareholders too suffered capital losses of more than one third in less than two years.

Metcash ((MTS)). Origin Energy ((ORG)). Even the banks have been called "defensive" in years gone by, but if their share prices drop by double digits just as easily as for the next biotech hopeful with no profits and no predictable prospects, then what good is a label that cannot live up to its promise?

Let's set the record straight on a few key misunderstandings: yield stocks are not by default low risk. If they go ex-growth, their securities will still be de-rated and their dividends openly questioned and potentially reduced. Companies that go ex-growth do not automatically become "defensive" despite many assigning the label to, for example, Woodside Petroleum, for that exact reason.

It is, however, true that stocks such as Transurban ((TCL)) and Sydney Airport ((SYD)) are killing it on the share market, and they have been for an extended period now. These stocks are often also referred to as "defensives"; they might carry a lot of debt and depend on a lot of government goodwill but they still don't match the risk profile of a Fortescue Metals, for example.

In recent times, these stocks have received the label "Expensive Defensives". The label has become one of the popular buzz words in 2016 and reveals as much about the successful investment stories attached to Transurban, Sydney Airport and others, as well as about fund managers' struggle to get their heads around valuations and prospective returns.

The Era Of The New Defensives

In medieval times, "defensive" meant behind the walls of the local lord's castle to where plundering thieves and pillaging warmongers had no easy access. In rugby it's the last line of players who will literally throw their bodies on the line to prevent the opposition from breaking through and scoring.

In the share market it means a much lower chance for a sudden profit warning and subsequent share price shellacking. No matter the joy expressed by many a value investor after such an event, every investor no matter what disposition, philosophy or experience hates to wake up with one (or more) of his investments going into free fall.

How does one prevent, or at least minimise this from happening? The old proven and tried methodology is to seek out valuation bargains. Fairfax Media shares were trading at 36c in October 2012. By April 2014 they'd surged above $1. Alas, today the shares are trading around the 90c mark and only because of speculation related to off loading the New Zealand old media operations.

Needless to say, if you are playing the game of buying ultra-cheap, you have to be patient and know when to jump ship. Post April 2014 total return on Fairfax shares is very much dependent on timing/entry points and on collecting the dividends.

Despite its proven track record, the many academic papers and Warren Buffett still being alive, this is not an investment style that suits everyone and all circumstances.

The alternative would be for an investment that equally carries low risk for disappointment but with a high certainty for positive performance. Enter stocks like Transurban and Sydney Airport, but also CSL ((CSL)), Amcor ((AMC)), InvoCare ((IVC)), ARB Corp ((ARB)) and Burson Group ((BAP)), among others.

When was the last time you heard about a profit warning from any of these companies?

Contrary to examples like Fairfax, or Myer ((MYR)) which seems to be the new Phoenix in the share market right now, shares in these "New Defensives" have not shown one explosion to the upside and a lot of volatility since. Instead they've displayed a remarkably low level of day-to-day volatility, including during the hairy-scary bear market fears of January-February this year, and shareholders have instead enjoyed market beating investment returns.

What's not to like?

Gold Plated Investment Returns

"This time is different". The phrase reminds investors of the dying days of the dotcom bubble that burst in March 2000 or more recently when commodities were believed to be in a multi-decade Super Cycle rally. It sends shivers rolling over the spine of many a battle-hardened funds manager.

But isn't the share market constantly in transformation and in flux, just like the global economy is right now? Sixteen years ago, News Corp was the 20% index heavyweight to which everyone paid attention. Today, the shares can be comfortably ignored as its weight no longer matters, literally. It was only in 2008 that mining and energy companies made up some 39% of the ASX200 in Australia. Today the total percentage barely reaches to 12% (It was even lower earlier this year).

Never before in their active careers have investors and fund managers been confronted with such a low, troubled growth environment as is the world right now, with so much debt, so much central bank stimulus, so little inflation and global interest rates as low as they are today. At the same time, technological and geographical barriers are disappearing, while important inputs such as consumer spending and demographics are changing too.

Many of the stocks that today are being grouped together in the basket of "Expensive Defensives" in essence represent the right characteristics for the current global context; including solid, predictable growth, quality products and assets that have a relatively low risk for immediate disruption, growing dividends supported by steady, predictable cash flows and a track record for delivering on, if not exceeding, investor expectations.

I've said this before, but more than happy to repeat it: when was the last time anyone can remember a profit warning from any of these companies?

Readers familiar with my own market analysis and commentary since 2008 already know this: replace "Expensive Defensives" with "All-Weather Performers" and the story pretty much tells itself, not in the least through investment returns since. FNArena publishes a monthly update on share prices that have my attention because of my specific research/focus (exclusively available to paying members - see also bottom of this story). Below are five stocks I randomly picked from last month's (April) update.

Note the consistent (out)performance for these stocks over the past six years (the returns calculated below are ex-dividends).




When Is Popular Too Popular?

To the dismay of everyone who refuses to jump on board, and to the frustration of all those experts & commentators who've kept repeating the same mantra: it won't last forever, these stocks, as a group, have simply accelerated their outperformance in 2016. Take a quick look at the following performances since December 31 (again: excluding any dividend payouts):

- Amcor +20%
- Brambles +12%
- Burson Group +16%
- CSL +7%
- Domino's Pizza +17%
- Goodman Group +14%
- Orora +22%
- Sydney Airport +13%
- Transurban +17%

So much for a low return environment, hey? There's an easy argument to be made in that most of these stocks are enjoying additional support from lower interest rates in Australia and from a weakening Australian dollar, on top of their top notch growth and yield prospects and their near flawless track record post-GFC.

Regardless, one quick view at the share price gains achieved over the past 5.5 months shows most gains are what the ledger usually shows at the end of a full calendar year. New money is flowing in this month, and it is pushing up share prices further for stocks that already have been exceptionally generous for loyal shareholders.

Stocks that perform well in the share market ultimately land on many an investor's radar and the performance of the stocks mentioned simply deserves every investor's attention. No two ways about it. Short term, it appears now everyone is getting on board the proven success stories. CSL's FY17 Price-Earnings (PE) ratio has now surged above 25x. But Sydney Airport's projected dividend yield next year is still 4.6%, ex-franking. Brambles only has one more stockbroker left with a price target above the current share price (Citi).

Underlying message: momentum and popularity are on the up, pushing up share prices and increasing the chances for a corrective pull back due to temporarily overheating, but these share prices still have room to appreciate further, in particular if additional support arrives from a weaker AUD and/or further RBA rate cuts while serious question marks remain for resources and other cyclicals, as well as regarding the banks and the Federal Reserve's intentions.

Is The Trend Still Our Friend?

Two trends unmistakably stand out when reading economists' projections and international strategy reports this month: the lower for longer environment is still making its presence felt through further declining expectations. In Australia, a general consensus is firming around at least one more RBA rate cut, but there could be more. At present the cash rate is 1.75%. Even an institution such as CommBank is now forecasting 1.25% next year (2x more rate cuts). 1.00% is not seen as too crazy a prediction by many.

The same underlying dynamics remain in place for the Federal Reserve in the US. Bond  markets are not pricing in any rate hikes this year and economists keep pushing out their expectations, not only for when the next hike might be announced (December only?), but also concerning the new ceiling for US rates moving up.

Economists at the aforementioned CommBank, for example, have now expressed their view the Fed Funds rate might not reach higher than 1.75%, with a risk the Fed stops at 1.0-1.25%.

Lower for longer still very much remains in place and this explains to a large extent the price action in May globally. I do however believe the FOMC is playing with fire and markets may not remain this supportive if they start disbelieving the hawks inside the committee and doubting whether the Federal Reserve can ever get interest rates sufficiently higher without damaging the US economy and/or corporate profits.

The latter question might well become all-important now the technical picture for US equity indices is once again deteriorating.

P.S. Given all of the above, it should surprise no-one the FNArena/Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio continues to outperform the broader share market, even as we have raised cash levels and reduced direct exposure to Australian equities.

Sell Resources In May?

UK-based Morgan Stanley Resources analyst Tom Price put together an interesting report full of charts and anecdotal insights, supporting the view that "Sell in May" does work, in particular for resources stocks.

His view is summarised in the graphic below. Investors who feel comfortable with the saying history doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it does rhyme might consider following up Price's advise and come back to buy back in the sector by October.




Expert Equity Tips For Aussie Investors

Stockpickers at Citi updated their "Citi Focus List Australia/NZ"; essentially the best Buy ideas according to Citi analysts.

Were added: Eclipx ((ECX)) and Spotless ((SPO)). Were removed: Stockland ((SGP)) and Tatts ((TTS)).

Others on the list remain:

- Aconex ((ACX))
- ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
- Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
- Brambles ((BXB))
- Newcrest Mining ((NCM))
- QBE Insurance ((QBE))
- Santos ((STO))
- Vitaco Holdings ((VIT))

Meanwhile, over at Credit Suisse, Macquarie Group ((MQG)) was removed from its Australian Top Picks.

Remain Top Buys according to CS:

- Westpac ((WBC))
- Challenger Financial ((CGF))
- Lend Lease ((LLC))
- Stockland
- Caltex ((CTX))
- Amcor ((AMC))
- Syrah Resources ((SYR))
- Fairfax Media ((FXJ))
- JB Hi-Fi ((JBH))
- Qantas ((QAN))
- Spark Infra ((SKI))
- Mantra Group ((MTR))

Over at Deutsche Bank the local Model Portfolio has equally gone through changes.

Added were: Vocus ((VOC)), Link ((LNK)), ResMed ((RMD)), Sydney Airport ((SYD)) and Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)). Removed were: QBE Insurance, Computershare ((CPU)), Qantas, Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)) and ANZ Bank.

Other constituents of the Model Portfolio are:

- Oil Search ((OSH))
- Santos
- BHP Billiton ((BHP))
- Rio Tinto ((RIO))
- Pact Group Holdings ((PGH))
- CSR ((CSR))
- Fletcher Building ((FBU))
- Boral ((BLD))
- Incitec Pivot ((IPL))
- Aristocrat Leisure
- Star Entertainment ((SGR))
- Harvey Norman ((HVN))
- Wesfarmers ((WES))
- Healthscope ((HSO))
- Westpac
- Stockland
- Suncorp ((SUN))
- AMP ((AMP))
- AGL Energy ((AGL))
- APA Group ((APA))

Catching Up On The (Bear Market) Past

There's no denying a change in the outlook for domestic interest rates is providing support for the Australian share market. Forget about indices revisiting prior lows. Instead, now the hunt is on to participate in equities on the "lower for longer" outlook.

There is no need for #NigelNoMates to stick around, at least in the medium term. Those readers who'd like to look back at the opening stories for the year, when things looked a lot different, can do so via the list below (in reverse order):

- Rudi's View: 2016 is The Year Of Conviction

- Rudi's View: Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad Bear?

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 1

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 2

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 3

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 4

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 5

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 6

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 7

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 8

Rudi On Tour

I will be presenting:

- To a Selected Group of FNArena Subscribers, "An Evening With Rudi", in Sydney, 26 May (sold out)

- To Melbourne chapter of the Australian Shareholders' Association (ASA) on 6 July

- To a Selected Group of FNArena Subscribers, "An Evening With Rudi", in Melbourne, 6 July (sold out)

- At the Australian Investors' Association's (AIA) National Conference in August on Queensland's Gold Coast.

- To Chatswood chapter of Australian Investors' Association (AIA) on September 7, 7pm, Chatswood RSL

Nothing Ever Changes, Or Does It?

Yes, of course, investing in the share market is never really different and best working strategies today are the same that worked pre-GFC. Seriously. I tell you, seriously.



Now that we had a good laugh about it, let's get straight to business. This is a low growth environment. Has been since 2010 (it was masked at the time because of the V-shaped recovery from the global recession) and it is not likely to change fundamentally in the near term. I wrote a book about this (see below). This means investment strategies must adapt. You'll be turning your portfolio into a wish list for dinosaurs otherwise (and your returns will be a reflection of it).

Those not afraid to contemplate "this time is different" can subscribe to FNArena and read all about it in our bonus eBooklets 'Make Risk Your Friend' (free with a paid 6 or 12 months subscription) plus the freshly published eBook 'Change. Investing in a low growth world' (equally free with subscription, or available through Amazon and other online distributors).

Here's the link to Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Change-Investing-Low-Growth-World-ebook/dp/B0196NL3KW/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1454908593&sr=1-1&keywords=change.investing+in+a+low+growth+world

See also further below.

Rudi On TV

- On Tuesday, around 11.15am, on Sky Business, I shall make a brief appearance through Skype-link to discuss broker ratings for less than ten minutes
- I will be appearing as guest on Sky Business, 12.30-2.30pm, on Thursday
- Later on Thursday, I shall make a guest appearance on Switzer TV, Sky Business, between 7-8pm
- On Friday, around 11.05am, on Sky Business, I shall make a brief appearance through Skype-link to discuss broker ratings for less than ten minutes

(This story was written on Monday 16 May 2016. It was published on the day in the form of an email to paying subscribers at FNArena).

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website.

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: info@fnarena.com or via Editor Direct on the website).

****

BONUS PUBLICATIONS FOR FNARENA SUBSCRIBERS

Paid subscribers to FNArena receive several bonus publications, at no extra cost, including:

- The AUD and the Australian Share Market (which stocks benefit from a weaker AUD, and which ones don't?)
- Make Risk Your Friend. Finding All-Weather Performers, January 2013 (The rationale behind investing in stocks that perform irrespective of the overall investment climate)
- Make Risk Your Friend. Finding All-Weather Performers, December 2014 (The follow-up that accounts for an ever changing world and updated stock selection)
- Change. Investing in a Low Growth World. eBook that sells through Amazon and other channels. Tackles the main issues impacting on investment strategies today and the world of tomorrow. This book should transform your views and your investment strategies. Can you afford not to read it?

Subscriptions cost $380 for twelve months or $210 for six and can be purchased here (depending on your status, a subscription to FNArena might be tax deductible): https://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_signup

FNArena has reformatted its monthly price tracker file for All-Weather Performers. We have updated until April 30. Paying subscribers can request a copy at info@fnarena.com 

In this week's Weekly Insights:

- It's A Schizophrenic Market
- Honey, I Shrunk The Break
- Australian Super Stock Report
- RBA Cash Rate: Low, Lower, Lowest?
- Catching Up On The Past
- Rudi On Tour
- Nothing Ever Changes, Or Does It?
- Rudi On TV


It's A Schizophrenic Market

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

"The average tenure of an iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is under 10 hours, while a steel rebar futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is even lower at ~4 hours"
[Quote from a recent CBA Commodities report]

Those among you who pay attention to my guest appearances on financial TV would have heard me saying that same expression: it's a schizophrenic market.

What I mean to say is that investors are now willing to add more risk to their strategies and their portfolios, but they are not willing to abandon their safe havens at the same time. Is it because confidence is still too feeble regarding the sustainability of the resources rally? Or is it that we all feel we are living and investing on borrowed time, with only excessive central bank intervention preventing a return of the Abyss?

The calendar now shows May. Surely, with last year's experience still fresh in memory, many an investor is feeling the reflex to position just a tiny little bit more cautiously? (May itself was relatively benign last year, but that didn't last long).

It doesn't help either that many a local strategist is pointing out the market's PE ratio is now at its highest point since the GFC, similar to where it was in May last year. And US equities, they are still rolling over, supposedly, after a rather non-inspiring Q1 reporting season.

On the flipside, there clearly is firm buying support underpinning the local index now the RBA has rewritten the outlook with potential additional rate cuts.

No Inspiration From The Banks

The share market's valuation dilemma was perfectly captured by UBS analysts this week. The chart below, showing industrials stocks ex financials, suggests Australian stocks ex banks and resources are now trading at their most expensive level since prior to the bear market of 2007-2009 when banks and resources wsere virtually annihilated on the back of GFC and global growth meltdown.



Yet, the Big Four banks, prominent indicators of investor risk appetite in Australia, are now rapidly approaching their consensus price targets. History tells us this often translates into a general realisation that things might have run up a little too far, too fast.

It's not like the Big Four have just released interim market updates that inspired greater confidence and enthusiasm among investors. One could argue quite the opposite, except that if the RBA seems hell-bent on further lowering the cash rate, it automatically refocuses investor attention to those juicy looking yields.

ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) shares, yielding some 6.6% pre-franking, are still trading 8.1% below the consensus target of $26.70, but National Australia Bank ((NAB)), 6.8% yield pre-franking, already is trading above its consensus target. Westpac ((WBC)), offering 6.0% pre-franking, still has a gap to close of some 3%. CommBank ((CBA)), yielding 5.5% pre-franking, only has 1.5% left.

Probably no coincidence National Australia Bank is widely considered to have delivered the best financial performance this season, even though some analysts have accused management of window dressing in the bad & doubtful debts department.

For good measure: these valuation gaps suggest the share market is steadily pushing into danger territory, but not quite far enough to start talking about the next correction just yet.

At times of unbridled exuberance all bank shares have been known to trade several percentages above their respective targets. CommBank usually moves past its target to show off its relative sector premium, but I'd still argue that with Westpac within 3% reach of its freshly updated target, it doesn't look the right time to take on board a lot more risk. At least not in the short term.

Industrials Are Not Cheap

To prove my point about the industrials ex-financials & ex-resources:

- CSL ((CSL)) shares are now trading above consensus target of $107.72 (+1.9%)
- Amcor ((AMC)) shares are now trading above consensus target of $14.88 (+7.0%)
- Sydney Airport ((SYD)) shares are now trading above consensus target of $6.63 (+9.9%)

As a matter of fact, the R-Factor on the FNArena website, which monitors share prices in relationship to consensus price targets, at present shows no less than 158 stocks trading above target while another 24 are less than 3% below target.

Amongst these we find many popular outperformers to date, such as Harvey Norman ((HVN)), Orora ((ORA)), Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)), Goodman Group ((GMG)), Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)) and James Hardie ((JHX)), as well as long established quality names such as ARB Corp ((ARB)), Iress ((IRE)), Brambles ((BXB)), Wesfarmers ((WES)) and Technology One ((TNE)).

Plus many from the new kids on the block, including Orocobre ((ORE)), Yowie ((YOW)), Costa Group ((CGC)), Capilano Honey ((CZZ)) and Smartgroup ((SIQ)). Resource stocks are represented as well: Alumina Ltd ((AWC)), Iluka Resources ((ILU)), Sandfire Resources ((SFR)), New Hope Coal ((NHC)), et cetera.

Bottom line: valuation constraints in itself can be a lousy indicator of when the next pull back/correction might arrive, but it does signal equities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to when risk appetite makes a turn for the worse, exact timing as yet unknown.





Laggards Are The New Black

All of the above suggests the local share market has made a swift transformation from staring into the abyss of a new bear market less than three months ago to now wanting to break out of the trading range that has remained in place since August last year, but buyers are increasingly running into valuation constraints. The latter suggests genuine bull market conditions, similar to late 2007.

What usually happens at this point in bull markets is investors start to concentrate on the laggards and narrow the valuation gap. This process has already started judging by the fact stocks like iSentia ((ISD)), Sirtex ((SRX)), OzForex ((OFX)) and Estia Health ((EHE)) seem to have rediscovered some of their previous oomph. The same goes for a2 Milk ((A2M)), Bellamy's ((BAL)) and Blackmores ((BKL)). And what about the strong rallies for McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS)), EclipX ((ECX)) and peers following that press statement issued by Bill Shorten's Labor party?

There's probably little appetite to jump on board of companies such as Orica ((ORI)), Decmil ((DCG)) or Cover-More ((CVO)) given fresh bad news announcements, but there are still plenty of laggards around without having to venture deeply into the darkest corners of the market.

From bear market dynamics to genuine bull market conditions within the space of less than three months; 2016 truly is shaping up as a remarkable year for investors.

Resources: The Stubborn Enigma

Nothing is ever easy and straightforward when it comes to deciphering the riddle that is the outlook for commodities, but 2016 is shaping up as a master class in humility for those who believed they had it all figured out. Down the sewage in January, on top of the hill by April. And now what?

Most sector analysts had been left scratching their heads post mid-February and it is easy to dismiss the strong sector upswing as driven by speculation and USD-weakness, but fair is fair there have been changes in fundamental market dynamics too.

There is no doubt the most powerful factors in support of the sudden revival for resources have by now mostly run their course:

- fund managers being heavily underweight the sector
- valuations at multi-decade lows
- valuation gap between resources and defensive industrials at an all-time high
- a weaker USD which reinvigorated global risk appetite
- the rise of Chinese speculators

On top of this comes a slight improvement in supply-demand dynamics:

- China buying to top up its reserves
- China launching stimulus and adding liquidity
- Weak players going out of business
- Unscheduled supply reductions in markets such as iron ore and crude oil
- Bull market conditions for Chinese steel producers with low inventories

Though markets for iron ore and crude oil are now much more in balance than was expected only a few months ago, the irony is that much higher prices probably means less supply is going to disappear and in fact it won't be long before new supply might start ramping up again.

What was that old Chinese proverb (supposedly) again? Oh yes: may you live in interesting times.

Honey, I Shrunk The Break

Weekly Insights from 18th April mentioned a three week break, but miscommunication between various participants meant my scheduled presentations in Perth had to be canceled, hence why Weekly Insights has returned one week sooner than planned.

Australian Super Stock Report

Once upon a time, not even that long ago into the past, the regular updates of FNArena's Australian Super Stock Report used to be a genuine event. Investors, whether they be paid subscribers or not, couldn't get their hands on the latest edition quickly enough to see which stocks ranked highly and which ones didn't according to the selection of stockbrokers that make up the FNArena universe for Australian equities expert research.

A lot of the gloss fell off when the bear market of 2008 arrived. Nowadays, FNArena only publishes updates in excel format, servicing those paying members who like to put raw data through their own software programs and trading systems.

What equally has happened is stockbroker research has become a lot less uniform and a lot less synchronised too. Out of the seven stockbrokers who cover Flight Centre ((FLT)) in our database, only three had managed to issue research updates by Monday morning following the company's trading update on Friday. Only a few years ago, this seemed unthinkable.

Clearly, the stockbroking industry still thrives on memories about real bull markets in the past. If the present one is supposed to be one too, most keep on wondering why nobody has told their clients as yet. The no hurry approach when it comes to issuing research reports is but one direct admission to the new reality.

Another change is that research coverage has abandoned the previously unwritten rule that all large caps need to be covered in-house. No longer true. In fact, as a direct response to poor performances overall of the Top Twenty in Australia over the past 2-3 years, research has very much expanded into medium and small caps where growth stories with exciting appeal remain very much in abundance. For FNArena, this has led to more companies now being covered by only one or two brokers.

Sectors for which broker research has dropped off significantly include contractors and services providers and resources stocks in general. Their places are being occupied by aged care accommodation providers, outdoor media companies, cloud-oriented platform developers and healthcare entrepreneurs.

It makes investing in the Australian share market a richer experience, no doubt about it. But it also creates thinner synergies and less overlap between research produced by the eight brokers in the FNArena universe. I cannot remember the last time all eight carried a Buy or Sell on the same stock whereas once upon a time this was a rather regular occurrence.

The times they truly are a' changing.

FNArena has published the latest update in excel, available on the website for paying members. Below is the Top 22 of all stocks at least covered by three stockbrokers and ranking 0.8 or higher on the FNArena Sentiment Indicator.




RBA Cash Rate: Low, Lower, Lowest?

The RBA under outgoing Governor Glenn Stevens is very much worried about falling short on its mandated inflation target to keep underlying consumer price inflation inside an annualised 2-3% range. If anyone needs convincing, simply download and read Friday's Statement of Monetary Policy.

Australia has traditionally carried higher price inflation than, say, the US because an island economy with 25 million people spread around a vast continent automatically implies whoever is market leader has a lot less competition to deal with. Those barriers from the past are disappearing, however, but clearly there's more to this matter than initially meets the eye.

All kudos to those economists who predicted Australia was about to join the rest of the world in terms of disappearing inflation. The team at UBS comes to mind.

Does this also mean the RBA is now ready to join its peers in developed economies with exceptionally low interest rates? Economists at Macquarie seem to think so. Their take-away from the latest shift in RBA focus, and following on from Friday's SOMP, is there is but one message every investor should now understand: interest rates have only one way to go: down.

How far down is still up for debate of course and a lot will depend on whether the Federal Reserve in the US finally embarks on a steady path of tightening. Thus far it's all talk and no action from Janet Yellen & Co. Despite all those assurances that June is still very much a live and open meeting virtually nobody in the market thinks this is genuinely the case. Economic data should strengthen in the second half, but then that has been the forecast for each year now since 2010 and it simply never seems to materialise.

No interest rate hikes soon from the Fed translates into more extreme measures from the BoJ, and probably also from the ECB and BoC. And for the RBA? Macquarie's latest update on the matter mentions 1.50% as an immediate target (next cut in August?), but also 1% as a potential risk further out.

Surely not, I can hear some among you think. I am with you, and so is Macquarie, but in a world of extreme central bank intervention, and a Federal Reserve unwilling to upset the apple cart, it is a prospect that cannot be completely dismissed. Note the team at Deutsche Bank already is convinced the RBA will cut two more times in the year ahead, pulling the official cash rate to 1.25% by mid next year.

The share market is as yet not fully convinced. Last year, under similar circumstances, the ASX200 in no time reached for 6000, but this time around there is clearly more hesitation.

There is another side to the argument too, with respected economists Saul Eslake and ANZ Bank analyst Richard Yetsenga using the weekend AFR to call for a national debate on whether the RBA should go down the path of ever lower interest rates, or should the new Governor and his team simply acknowledge there's very little real firepower available unless Yellen & Co genuinely change market perception about the outlook for the Fed's Funds rate?

Former RBA Governor Bernie Fraser thinks the latter.

There seems to be very little hesitation, if any, inside CommBank, where the inhouse forecast is for AUDUSD to return to 78c by year-end. Oh dear.

Let's just state the obvious: central bankers have dug themselves one mighty hole and it was so much easier while digging it than now trying to get out of it without pulling the rest of the world into it too.

Catching Up On The Past

In case you missed some of the preceding stories, here's your chance to catch up (in reverse order):

- Rudi's View: 2016 is The Year Of Conviction

- Rudi's View: Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad Bear?

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 1

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 2

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 3

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 4

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 5

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 6

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 7

- The Bear Market Diaries - Episode 8

Rudi On Tour - Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad Bear?

They seem to come along every eight years or so, the dreadful bear market so many investors detest, causing risk appetite to evaporate and share prices to reset at lower levels. Every time the cause and follow-through are different. So what lies at its origin this time and what's going to be the likely outcome? As a self-nominated bear market expert, I will be sharing causes, explanations, insights and strategies for investors who want more than keeping their fingers crossed while hoping for the best.

I will be presenting:

- To a Selected Group of FNArena Subscribers, "An Evening With Rudi", in Sydney, 26 May (sold out)

- To Melbourne chapter of the Australian Shareholders' Association (ASA) on 6 July

- To a Selected Group of FNArena Subscribers, "An Evening With Rudi", in Melbourne, 6 July (sold out)

- At the Australian Investors' Association's (AIA) National Conference in August on Queensland's Gold Coast.

- To Chatswood chapter of Australian Investors' Association (AIA) on September 7, 7pm, Chatswood RSL

Nothing Ever Changes, Or Does It?

Yes, of course, investing in the share market is never really different and best working strategies today are the same that worked pre-GFC. Seriously. I tell you, seriously.



Now that we had a good laugh about it, let's get straight to business. This is a low growth environment. Has been since 2010 (it was masked at the time because of the V-shaped recovery from the global recession) and it is not likely to change fundamentally in the near term. I wrote a book about this (see below). This means investment strategies must adapt. You'll be turning your portfolio into a wish list for dinosaurs otherwise (and your returns will be a reflection of it).

Those not afraid to contemplate "this time is different" can subscribe to FNArena and read all about it in our bonus eBooklets 'Make Risk Your Friend' (free with a paid 6 or 12 months subscription) plus the freshly published eBook 'Change. Investing in a low growth world' (equally free with subscription, or available through Amazon and other online distributors).

Here's the link to Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Change-Investing-Low-Growth-World-ebook/dp/B0196NL3KW/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1454908593&sr=1-1&keywords=change.investing+in+a+low+growth+world

See also further below.

Rudi On TV

- On Tuesday, around 11.15am, on Sky Business, I shall make a brief appearance through Skype-link to discuss broker ratings for less than ten minutes
- I will be appearing as guest on Sky Business, 12.30-2.30pm, on Thursday
- On Friday, around 11.05am, on Sky Business, I shall make a brief appearance through Skype-link to discuss broker ratings for less than ten minutes
- On Friday, I swill be appearing as guest on Sky Business., Your Money, Your Call Fixed Interest, 7-8pm

(This story was written on Monday & Tuesday 9-10 may 2016. It was published on the latter day in the form of an email to paying subscribers at FNArena).

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website.

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: info@fnarena.com or via Editor Direct on the website).

****

BONUS PUBLICATIONS FOR FNARENA SUBSCRIBERS

Paid subscribers to FNArena receive several bonus publications, at no extra cost, including:

- The AUD and the Australian Share Market (which stocks benefit from a weaker AUD, and which ones don't?)
- Make Risk Your Friend. Finding All-Weather Performers, January 2013 (The rationale behind investing in stocks that perform irrespective of the overall investment climate)
- Make Risk Your Friend. Finding All-Weather Performers, December 2014 (The follow-up that accounts for an ever changing world and updated stock selection)
- Change. Investing in a Low Growth World. eBook that sells through Amazon and other channels. Tackles the main issues impacting on investment strategies today and the world of tomorrow. This book should transform your views and your investment strategies. Can you afford not to read it?

Subscriptions cost $380 for twelve months or $210 for six and can be purchased here (depending on your status, a subscription to FNArena might be tax deductible): https://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_signup

FNArena has reformatted its monthly price tracker file for All-Weather Performers. We have updated until April 30. Paying subscribers can request a copy at info@fnarena.com