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The Short Report

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By Chris Shaw

When David Jones ((DJS)) reported interim earnings last week and the result included weak guidance for the full year the market was prepared, as short positions in the stock in the week from March 13 had risen to 11.67% from 10.07% previously.

The market's caution with respect to retail stocks didn't stop there, as in the same week shorts in Myer ((MYR)) rose to 12.25% from 10.02%, in The Reject Shop ((TRS)) to 7.49% from 6.04% and in Billabong ((BBG)) to 11.13% from 10.29% the week before.

Retail plays and stocks exposed to consumer spending continue to dominate in terms of the largest short positions on the ASX. Along with those companies recording significant increases for the week from March 13, the top 20 largest short positions include JB Hi-FI ((JBH)) at more than 20%, Flight Centre ((FLT)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Wofit.com ((WTF)).

Also in the top 20 was Beach Energy ((BPT)), where shorts increased to 5.09% from less than 1% in a significant daily change. The increase came despite Beach the week before indicating production at a project in Egypt would commence earlier than the market had expected.

A significant increase in short positions for the week from March 13 was also seen in Southern Cross Media ((SXL)). Shorts here rose to 1.95% from less than 0.4% previously, this despite no major news from the company since what had been a generally well received interim earnings result in February.

With regards to declining short positions, the most significant in the week from March 13 was in Rialto Energy ((RIA)). Short positions for the company declined to just 0.16% from 4.5% the week before, this occurring prior to the company updating both on exploration drilling and the receipt of US$20 million in funds via a private placement to a group headed by International Finance Corporation.

The only other falls in short positions of more than one percentage point were in SingTel ((SGT)) and the partly protected shares of Wesfarmers ((WESN)). Shorts in Singtel have fallen to 5.81%, while for WESN short positions now stand at 1.59%. This is still well up from total short positions of around 0.05% in late January.

Among the monthly changes from February 20, shorts in Echo Entertainment Group ((EGP)) rose the most, increasing to 7.51% from 0.89% the month prior. This likely reflects some doubts in the market in relation to the stock being a corporate target for Crown ((CWN)) in particular.

Aside from Rialto Energy ((RIA)) the most substantial fall in monthly short positions from February 20 was in OneSteel ((OST)), where positioned declined to 2.53% from nearly 6% the month before. An equity raising by the company remains a possibility but a recent briefing left brokers with the view there is some upside from the group's iron ore operations.

Elsewhere, RBS Australia notes short positions have continued to increase in both Metcash ((MTS)) and Alumina Ltd ((AWC)), to 4.8% and 2.6% respectively. With respect to Metcash, RBS notes poor recent trading from the Franklins business is impacting on valuation, while the weak alumina market and a strong Australian dollar continue to pressure margins for Alumina.

Unlike a number of internet business peers, Seek ((SEK)) has seen short positions trend lower in recent weeks, declining to 4.51% from 6.66% in the month from February 20. Such a decline makes sense in the view of RBS, as Seek enjoys a dominant market position that should allow further yield growth and the stock is offering better value than its online classified peers at current levels.

Traders and investors should note past analysis suggests that increasing and decreasing short positions can be associated with underperformance and outperformance in the following weeks, all else being equal.

Top 20 Largest Short Positions

Rank	Symbol	Short Position	Total Product	%Short
1	JBH	20632949	98850643	20.86
2	MYR	71503784	583384551	12.25
3	DJS	61361240	524940325	11.67
4	BBG	28482505	255102103	11.13
5	ISO	634909	5703165	11.13
6	FXJ	257854099	2351955725	11.00
7	FLT	9150409	100017679	9.14
8	LYC	152970216	1714496913	8.94
9	COH	5026954	56929432	8.81
10	EGP	51722091	688019737	7.51
11	TRS	1947770	26071170	7.49
12	GNS	63258152	848401559	7.44
13	HVN	78149190	1062316784	7.36
14	WTF	14751981	211736244	6.96
15	CRZ	15039186	233674223	6.43
16	TEN	62463217	1045236720	5.97
17	SGT	10331967	176974336	5.81
18	PPT	2413030	41980678	5.77
19	CSR	26711472	506000315	5.28
20	BPT	56421021	1113497051	5.09

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

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Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

Over the past week brokers in the FNArena database have upgraded three ratings while downgrading seven stocks. Total Buy ratings now stand at 51.66%.

Among the upgrades were David Jones ((DJS)), where Macquarie moved to a Buy rating from Neutral previously. This reflects the view a relief rally is possible as the downgraded earnings outlook is now in the price and issues on the credit card side of the business have now become exposed. This has driven down the share price and leaves scope for a bounce in the broker's view.

Others in the market reacted to the interim profit result and weak guidance far more harshly, with UBS, Deutsche Bank and RBS Australia all downgrading to Sell recommendations from Neutral ratings previously.

UBS continues to see downside earnings risk and suggests there is limited value at current levels given this risk. Deutsche Bank also sees some execution risk as David Jones attempts to restructure its operations, while RBS Australia suggests the re-basing of earnings over the next few years is not fully priced into the stock at present.

Macquarie also upgraded News Corporation ((NWS)) during the week, lifting its rating to Neutral from Sell as the sale of NDS was factored into its model. For Macquarie the sale is a positive for the valuation of News, which when added to the removal of a discount for regulatory uncertainty sees the broker move to a less negative view.

Sigma Pharmaceuticals ((SIP)) reported full year earnings this week and while metrics improved, the consensus view is the industry outlook remains difficult. Deutsche is the only broker in the database to rate Sigma as a Buy, seeing scope for additional earnings growth and capital management in coming periods.

Neutral and Sell ratings continue to dominate for Sigma, with brokers adjusting forecasts and price target post the full year result.

Among the other downgrades over the past week was RBS Australia cutting its recommendation on Graincorp ((GNC)) to Neutral from Buy. Potential for the company to be involved in corporate activity given consolidation in the sector is a potential positive for valuation, but in RBS's view this is priced in at current levels. The downgrade in rating is therefore a valuation call.

RBS also lowered its rating on Nexus Energy ((NXS)) to Neutral from Buy post the group's Longtom field review. The downgrade in reserves creates uncertainty, while the downgrade is also a valuation call given the impact on value and price target resulting from the reduction in reserves at the project.

While Reckon ((RKN)) will save some royalties from the ending of its relationship with international (ex) partner Intuit, the flip side in Macquarie's view is Reckon will need to spend more on R&D going forward to compete with peers. There is also the risk of some customer leakage from the decision, which reinforces the broker's downgrade to a Sell rating from Neutral previously.

For UBS, the de-merger of Telecom New Zealand ((TEL)) being completed means the market should now focus on the growth outlook, which is not overly positive in the broker's view. While mobiles are performing well, this won't be enough to offset broader declines. This implies the market is overpaying for growth at current levels. This has seen UBS downgrade to a Sell rating from Neutral previously.

Significant changes in price targets were limited to the downside over the past week, with targets for David Jones falling significantly as brokers adjusted their models to reflect lower earnings guidance. Fellow retailer Kathmandu ((KMD)) suffered a similar fate, as again brokers lowered forecasts and price targets to reflect a weak interim profit result.

Aside from Kathmandu and David Jones, the most significant cuts in earnings estimates were seem in Atlas Iron ((AGO)), the changes reflecting lost production due to Cyclone Lau causing operations to be shut down.

Beach Energy ((BPT)) enjoyed the most significant increases in earnings estimates, this as brokers adjusted their models to reflect the group's Egypt project commencing production earlier than had been expected.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	DAVID JONES LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
2	NEWS CORPORATION	Sell	Neutral	Macquarie
3	Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd	Buy	Buy	Deutsche Bank
Downgrade
4	DAVID JONES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	UBS
5	DAVID JONES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Deutsche Bank
6	DAVID JONES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	RBS Australia
7	GRAINCORP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
8	NEXUS ENERGY LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
9	RECKON LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
10	TELECOM CORPORATION OF NEW ZEALAND LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	UBS

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	NWS	43.0%	57.0%	14.0%	7
2	CSR	13.0%	25.0%	12.0%	8
3	ALS	40.0%	50.0%	10.0%	6
4	TNE	67.0%	75.0%	8.0%	4

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	DJS	- 38.0%	- 75.0%	- 37.0%	8
2	KMD	60.0%	40.0%	- 20.0%	5
3	RRL	50.0%	33.0%	- 17.0%	3
4	GNC	67.0%	50.0%	- 17.0%	6
5	PRU	33.0%	20.0%	- 13.0%	5
6	PRY	63.0%	50.0%	- 13.0%	8
7	GMG	75.0%	63.0%	- 12.0%	8
8	SGT	57.0%	50.0%	- 7.0%	6

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	NWS	20.547	21.663	5.43%	7
2	RRL	4.210	4.413	4.82%	3
3	ALS	1.656	1.705	2.96%	6
4	TNE	1.220	1.240	1.64%	4

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	KMD	1.920	1.357	- 29.32%	5
2	DJS	2.604	2.248	- 13.67%	8
3	PRU	3.628	3.494	- 3.69%	5
4	CSR	2.435	2.379	- 2.30%	8
5	PRY	3.314	3.289	- 0.75%	8

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	BPT	8.060	9.440	17.12%	5
2	ROC	4.713	4.978	5.62%	5
3	HZN	1.147	1.194	4.10%	4
4	STO	66.138	67.250	1.68%	8
5	OSH	11.677	11.845	1.44%	8
6	TOX	18.133	18.367	1.29%	3
7	FMG	48.489	49.091	1.24%	8
8	SIP	3.886	3.929	1.11%	7
9	TNE	7.200	7.275	1.04%	4
10	AUT	31.681	31.944	0.83%	5

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	KMD	16.591	11.990	- 27.73%	5
2	DJS	26.813	20.950	- 21.87%	8
3	AGO	7.300	5.863	- 19.68%	8
4	ALS	17.850	16.871	- 5.48%	6
5	ORL	66.420	64.300	- 3.19%	5
6	SYD	7.082	6.885	- 2.78%	6
7	AQG	75.592	73.544	- 2.71%	7
8	GMG	6.200	6.125	- 1.21%	8
9	MYR	24.525	24.288	- 0.97%	8
10	RIO	750.659	745.251	- 0.72%	8

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Weekly Broker Wrap: Global Investor Confidence Rising

By Chris Shaw

A survey of nearly 700 institutional clients by Barclays Capital has shown global investor confidence has risen significantly over the past three months. The lift reflects the expectation prospects for the US economy are likely to continue improving as well as the fact asset valuations are not a major concern at current levels.

While confidence has improved, Barclays notes clients are not overly bullish, which is acknowledgement many risks remain such as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. The survey showed 38% of respondents expect at least one country will leave the euro zone this year. Barclays views this number, down from 50% in the same survey last year, as still uncomfortably high given the potential significance of such an outcome.

Among its clients, Barclays notes 37% view equities as likely to be the strongest performing asset class, followed by credit at 18%. This compares to December survey results that showed 34% viewed bonds as the likely best performer compared to 19% for equities.

For clients that are equity market investors, the survey showed 71% expect equity prices will increase by 5% or more by the end of this year. This measure is up from 25% last December. Only 10% of such clients expect a fall of at least 5%.

Confidence has also improved in other asset classes, with Barclays noting 39.5% of investors in credit markets expect US high yield securities to be the best performer. Foreign exchange investors see best results coming from G10 currencies, followed by emerging market commodity currencies.

While investors were also fairly confident about the coming year in the first quarter survey last year, Barclays suggests conditions are somewhat different now, as while concerns over the euro zone crisis remain they have diminished somewhat.

A positive is both within and outside the US, monetary policy is expected to remain loose, which should prove to be supportive of economic growth.

BA Merrill Lynch has conducted a similar survey, finding while global equities have risen 28% from their lows of last October, sentiment is far from overly bullish. Cash levels remain high, while March allocations to equities, Europe and Banks rose only modestly from the previous month.

From a macro perspective, BA-ML notes its survey shows investors are now pricing out fresh central bank liquidity measures, as 47% now say there will be no QE3 in the US, which is up from 36% in the previous survey. It is a similar story in Europe as 43% expect no new European Central Bank QE, up from 23% previously.

In terms of asset allocations, BA-ML notes investors remain overweight equities and commodities and are underweight bonds and cash. Among equity markets, emerging market positions remain very overweight, long US equities remains popular and underweight European equities is still the case for most investors. Allocations to Japan rose strongly from the previous month.

In the view of BA-ML, the reluctance of investors to trim emerging market allocations may partly reflect an improving macro outlook, as a net 28% of investors see the global economy strengthening over the next 12 months. This is up from 13% last month.

Among Asia Pacific investors, BA-ML notes while overweight China remains a dominant position allocations fell to a five-month low of plus 26%. Hong Kong is the next most favoured market at plus 18%. Australia remains the least loved market in the region at a minus 13% position.

With respect to the Australian market, Deutsche Bank suggests conditions for a recovery in deposit margins for the major banks are emerging, which could deliver significant upside surprise to profits going forward.

This can be explained by the correlation between falling wholesale funding costs and improving deposit spreads of 0.8x, so the recent 70-80 basis point reduction in wholesale funding costs should see deposit rates reduce, so boosting industry margins.

For every 20-basis point improvement in spreads there is a 5-7 basis point improvement in group margins, which Deutsche suggests would translate to a 3-4% upgrade in earnings per share. The broker suggests ANZ Banking Group ((ANZ)), Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) and Westpac ((WBC)) should benefit by around the same amount from this theme, while National Australia Bank ((NAB)) would lag given its UK operations.

Among the major banks Deutsche rates ANZ and NAB as Buy, while ascribing Hold ratings to CBA and Westpac.

UBS has looked more closely at the impact of department stores on Australian REITs, especially those involved in leasing retail space. This market is significant given department stores contribute around 5% of total rent, occupy about 20% of gross lettable area and pay rent of around $200-$250 per square metre.

At present, UBS notes the two major department stores in Australia are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Myer ((MYR)) is focused on trying to optimise its store network and returning space to landlords when possible, while David Jones ((DJS)) has a relatively small current footprint but is committed to growing its store network.

By income, UBS estimates CFS Retail Property ((CFX)) has 7.5% exposure to department stores, Westfield Retail ((WRT)) 6.0%, GPT ((GPT)) 4.0% and Centro Retail ((CRF)) 2.1%. The importance of these exposure levels, in the view of UBS, is concerns from retailers on rents are unlikely to go away anytime soon.

This suggests to UBS a cautious stance on those stocks where there is no capital management or capital recycling to prove up net asset value is appropriate. Among the REITs the broker's order of preference remains Westfield Group ((WDC)) and Charter Hall Retail ((CQR)) as the top picks, following by mid-weightings on CFS Retail, GPT, Centro Retail and Westfield Retail. UBS continues to prefer CS Retail to Westfield Retail.

Still in relation to retail in Australia, BA-ML notes earnings growth for food and beverage producers and retailers has been in decline for the past two to three years, this rate of decline picking up sharply over the last six to 12 months.

While the retailers have attributed weaker earnings to cyclical factors such as adverse weather and weak consumer spending, BA-ML sees the issue as more structural. These include over-investment in an already crowded market, a large proportion of investment being on property developments and renovations and the effective entry of a new major competitor given the resurgence in Coles over the past couple of years.

BA-ML argues the consumer sector is currently experiencing margin pressure from price deflation and increasing costs, with these stemming more from over-investment than from cyclical factors. This implies a lengthy period of margin pressure for the Australian food and beverage sector.

On BA-ML's numbers, the three main food retailers in Australia need to lift earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) by around $1.3 billion over the next three years to make an acceptable rate of return. A concern in achieving this is retailers are likely to step up what are already intense efforts to boost earnings via measures such as price cuts, which could cause a worsening outlook for both consumer products and the retailers.

Given price deflation is expected to stay for at least some time, BA-ML suggests Australian consumer companies are likely to realise, at best, low single digit earnings growth over the next two to three years.

For BA-ML a key will be owners and managers adjusting growth expectations to reflect the new market reality. This means not acting in an overly ambitious manner by investing to sustain abnormal growth rates, as such action could generate material dilution to returns on investment.

BA-ML notes the leading consumer stocks in Australia – Woolworths ((WOW)), Wesfarmers ((WES)) and Coca-Cola Amatil ((CCL)) are all trading on earnings multiples of 14-15 times at present, while dividends are better than 4.5%.

A company offering 3% growth with a cost of equity of 10% and a dividend yield of around 5% should have a price to growth multiple of around 1.2 times on BA-ML's numbers. This equates to an earnings multiple of around 10 times, well below current multiples for the sector leaders. This highlights BA-ML's caution in terms of investing in the sector at current levels.

JP Morgan has reviewed its coverage of emerging companies, noting since the start of 2012 the Small Industrials accumulation index has risen 15%. This is outperformance relative to an 8% increase in the Small Resources index and the 4% and 5% gains for S&P/ASX100 Industrials and Resources indices.

In JP Morgan's view the primary reason for the recent outperformance has been earnings multiple expansion, as the Small Industrials are now trading at a premium of around 10% relative to the S&P/ASX100 Industrials on a 12-month forward basis.

Among the emerging cap stocks under coverage, JP Morgan rates Asciano ((AIX)), Aristocrat ((ALL)), Ausdrill ((ASL)), Blackmores ((BKL)), Bradken ((BKN)), Credit Corp ((CCP)), Dulux ((DLX)), Fantastic Holdings ((FAN)), Flight Centre ((FLT)), Henderson Group ((HGG)), iiNet ((IIN)), Jetset Travelworld ((JET)), Miclyn Express ((MIO)), Norfolk ((NFK)), NIB Holdings ((NHF)), Programmed Maintenance ((PRG)), QRxPharma ((QRX)), REA Group ((REA)), SAI Global ((SAI)), Silex Systems ((SLX)), Seven Group ((SVW)), Transfield Services ((TSE)), Thinksmart ((TSM)) and Wotif.com ((WTF)) as Overweight.

Among the REITs, JP Morgan has Overweight ratings on Astro Japan ((AJA)), Carindale Property Trust ((CDP)), Charter Hall Group ((CHC)) and FKP Properties ((FKP)), while for the resource plays Overweight ratings are ascribed to Australian Worldwide ((AWE)), Aston Resources ((AZT)), Grange Resources ((GRR)), Hillgrove Resources ((HGO)), PMI Gold ((PVM)), Roc Oil ((ROC)), Silver Lake ((SLR)), Venture Minerals ((VMS)) and YTC Resources ((YTC)).

Among JP Morgan's Underweight recommendations are REIT plays Bunnings Warehouse Property ((BWP)) and Charter Hall Retail and resource plays Aurora Oil & Gas ((AUT)) and Sandfire Resources ((SFR)).

Among the emerging industrials, JP Morgan is Underweight on Austar ((AUN)), Billabong ((BBG)), Envestra ((ENV)), Gunns ((GNS)), Hastie ((HST)), Matrix Composites ((MCE)), Nufarm ((NUF)) and PaperlinX ((PPX)).

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The Short Report

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By Chris Shaw

While the week from March 6 was relatively quiet in terms of changes in short positions among ASX-listed stocks, some of the changes were of interest given the companies involved.

Among the reductions in short interest of more than 1.0 percentage points were three retail plays – Myer ((MYR)), Billabong ((BBG)) and David Jones ((DJS)). All saw shorts fall to levels now around the 10% mark from more than 11% previously. Despite the falls in shorts for the three companies mentioned, top short positions in the Australian share market continue to be dominated by consumer discretionary plays. JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)), Flight Centre ((FLT)) and The Reject Shop ((TRS)) are still among the top-20 shorts in the market.

Among other declines in short positions for the week from March 6 was Beach Energy ((BPT)), where positions fell to 5.29% from 7.21% the week before. This was prior to the company announcing production at a project in Egypt had commenced.

Shorts in Tatts ((TTS)) fell to 1.4% from 2.69% previously, as post a solid interim result Deutsche Bank suggested the second half has started well for the company. Deutsche sees scope for some upside from the recent Tote Tasmania and Lotteries acquisitions.

QBE Insurance ((QBE)) is raising some funds to help with the recent acquisitions of Hang Seng Bank and HSBC Argentina, moves that were generally well received. Shorts have fallen to 3.25% from 4.44% previously as the market adjusts to the transactions and capital raising, though some brokers continue to have some concerns with respect to QBE's capital position. Others, however, are willing to take a more optimistic stance.

On the side of increases in shorts the most significant in the week from March 6 was registered for Singtel ((SGT)), where positions rose to 7.06% from 5.37% previously. The increases follow some broker visits and come post the acquisition of Amobee, a mobile advertising business.

The other largest increase was in Wesfarmers partly protected shares ((WESN)), where shorts rose to 2.61% from 1.56% previously. Shorts in Wesfarmers ordinary shares were largely unchanged.

In terms of monthly changes from February 13 the most significant increases were in Echo Entertainment ((EGP)) and Beach. Echo's shorts increased to more than 7.4% from less than 0.9% previously, as the market continues to question whether Crown ((CWN)) will move on the group from its current stake of around 10%. Beach's shorts have risen over the month to nearly 5.3% from 1.79% previously.

Among stocks where shorts have fallen over the past month were OneSteel ((OST)), where positions have declined to 2.9% from just over 6.0% the month before. Brokers remain positive on the company from a valuation perspective, supported by some increases to forecasts post last month's interim profit result.

Shorts in Seek ((SEK)) fell in the month to just more than 4.1% from just over 6.0% previously, this as brokers have in general lifted forecasts and price targets post the recent interim profit result. Goodman Fielder ((GFF)) also saw short positions for the month fall solidly, total positions now standing at 2.7% from 4.49% previously. The decline is likely related to Singapore agribusiness group Wilmar taking a stake of just over 10% in the company, potentially implying Goodman Fielder is in play.

Elsewhere, an increase in shorts in CSL ((CSL)) of nearly 1.4% in recent weeks to around 1.45% is significant to RBS Australia. The broker is cautious on the stock given moderating sales and growing competition and as CSL appears to be transitioning to a more research-driven organisation. This shift is likely to take time and involve a number of development challenges and regulatory risks.

Top 20 Largest Short Positions

Rank	Symbol	Short Position	Total Product	%Short
1	JBH	20692605	98850643	20.94
2	FXJ	262136108	2351955725	11.15
3	ISO	606809	5703165	10.64
4	BBG	26397994	255102103	10.29
5	DJS	52963906	524940325	10.07
6	MYR	58546325	583384551	10.02
7	FLT	9470628	100017679	9.43
8	COH	5228051	56929432	9.16
9	LYC	151906891	1714396913	8.89
10	EGP	51244627	688019737	7.44
11	GNS	62413343	848401559	7.34
12	SGT	12516986	176974336	7.06
13	WTF	14766631	211736244	6.96
14	HVN	72641318	1062316784	6.84
15	CRZ	14934741	233674223	6.36
16	TEN	63516058	1045236720	6.07
17	TRS	1577120	26071170	6.04
18	PPT	2428858	41980678	5.77
19	ILU	23052563	418700517	5.48
20	BPT	58854487	1113497051	5.29

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

Technical limitations

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Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

With reporting season behind us, changes in broker ratings have declined over the past week, the eight brokers in the FNArena database making just five upgrades and 12 downgrades for the period. Total Buy recommendations now stand at 51.31%. Note downgrades continue outnumbering upgrades (and by a wide margin). Note also most upgrades were from Sell to Neutral.

Incitec Pivot ((IPL)) was among the stocks upgraded, Deutsche Bank moving to a Neutral view from Sell previously on valuation grounds. The change follows a period of share price underperformance and comes despite the broker trimming earnings estimates slightly. Others in the market also adjusted earnings estimates and price targets over the week.

Deutsche also upgraded National Australia Bank ((NAB)) to Buy from Neutral, seeing potential for a review of the bank's UK assets to drive as much as 10-15% valuation upside from potentially positive review outcomes. Deutsche lifted its target to reflect this potential, though UBS saw things differently and last week downgraded NAB to Neutral from Buy. A case of "value" is in the eye of the beholder?

A solid interim profit result and potential for earnings growth from the Pizza Capers acquisition saw RBS Australia upgrade Retail Food Group ((RFG)) to Buy from Neutral, while earnings estimates and price target were also lifted.

Here too the move by RBS was at odds with others, as the previous week JP Morgan had downgraded earnings, price target and rating to Neutral from Overweight given the interim result fell short of its expectations.

The acquisition of the Lounge Lizard project saw UBS lift its estimates for Western Areas ((WSA)), the changes enough for the broker to upgrade to a Neutral rating with the stockbroker citing valuation grounds. No other ratings were changed, though brokers did lift earnings forecasts modestly to reflect the acquisition.

Valuation was behind Citi's upgrade to a Buy on Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)), the broker suggesting recent share price weakness means the base business is priced in and investors are now getting effectively a free option on the Browse and Sunrise projects.

This was it, as far as upgrades for the week are concerned.

On the downgrade side of the market, UBS lowered its rating on Adelaide Brighton ((ABC)) to Neutral from Buy to reflect both a lack of obvious short-term catalysts and the potential for some short-term underperformance if the stock enters the ASX100 index.

While the rest of the market is positive JP Morgan has downgraded Ausenco ((AAX)) to Neutral from Overweight given significant share price gains in recent months, while the broker has similarly downgraded Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)) to Underweight from Neutral given concerns margins may come under renewed pressure in coming months. Earnings and price target for BOQ were also lowered.

Recent outperformance by DuluxGroup ((DLX)) has been enough for UBS to downgrade to a Neutral rating from Buy previously, while the broker makes the same downgrade on Gloucester Coal ((GCL)) to reflect revised valuation on the back of adjusted merger proposal terms.

The news Kagara Zinc ((KZL)) may not be able to continue as a going concern prompted both UBS and Macquarie to downgrade to Sell ratings from previous ratings of Buy and Neutral respectively, both brokers also slashing earnings estimates and price targets.

Oroton Group ((ORL)) also experienced two downgrades during the week, though the changes from UBS and RBS were to Neutral recommendations from Buy previously. The changes reflect the similar view the apparel category will continue to experience tough trading conditions and increasing cost pressures. In a similar vein, UBS also downgraded The Reject Shop ((TRS)) to Neutral from Buy.

For Sandfire Resources ((SFR)) Citi has moved to a Neutral rating from Buy previously as while progress continues at the DeGrussa development, there appears little scope for short-term upside in the broker's view. Earnings forecasts were also adjusted across the market, though UBS noted earnings for the company at present are largely immaterial as the focus is on moving into the production phase of operations.

While there were no significant increases in price targets over the past week, brokers have lowered targets for Hutchison Telecommunications ((HTA)) to reflect a weaker FY11 result that also showed a continuation of subscriber losses.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
2	NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
3	RETAIL FOOD GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
4	WESTERN AREAS NL	Sell	Neutral	UBS
5	WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Citi
Downgrade
6	ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
7	AUSENCO LTD	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
8	BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	JP Morgan
9	DULUX GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
10	GLOUCESTER COAL LTD	Buy	Neutral	UBS
11	KAGARA ZINC LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
12	KAGARA ZINC LIMITED	Buy	Sell	UBS
13	OROTONGROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
14	OROTONGROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
15	SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL	Buy	Neutral	Citi
16	THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	RFG	33.0%	67.0%	34.0%	3
2	AZT	80.0%	100.0%	20.0%	5
3	WSA	17.0%	33.0%	16.0%	6
4	QBE	50.0%	63.0%	13.0%	8
5	IPL	50.0%	63.0%	13.0%	8
6	RMD	50.0%	63.0%	13.0%	8
7	WPL	13.0%	25.0%	12.0%	8
8	SGN	67.0%	75.0%	8.0%	4
9	NVT	29.0%	33.0%	4.0%	6

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	GCL	60.0%	20.0%	- 40.0%	5
2	ORL	80.0%	40.0%	- 40.0%	5
3	VAH	100.0%	60.0%	- 40.0%	5
4	TAP	75.0%	50.0%	- 25.0%	4
5	PAN	75.0%	50.0%	- 25.0%	4
6	HGG	60.0%	40.0%	- 20.0%	5
7	AAX	100.0%	80.0%	- 20.0%	5
8	SFR	40.0%	20.0%	- 20.0%	5
9	RSG	50.0%	33.0%	- 17.0%	3
10	DLX	57.0%	43.0%	- 14.0%	7

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	RFG	2.917	3.067	5.14%	3
2	RSG	1.750	1.833	4.74%	3
3	QBE	12.979	13.410	3.32%	8
4	WSA	5.967	6.133	2.78%	6
5	PAN	2.090	2.137	2.25%	4
6	ARP	8.663	8.818	1.79%	5
7	RMD	3.180	3.213	1.04%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	HTA	0.080	0.055	- 31.25%	3
2	GCL	9.225	8.875	- 3.79%	5
3	VAH	0.493	0.476	- 3.45%	5
4	BOQ	9.345	9.024	- 3.43%	8
5	IPL	3.725	3.681	- 1.18%	8
6	TAP	1.085	1.075	- 0.92%	4
7	SGN	1.240	1.230	- 0.81%	4
8	ABC	3.339	3.326	- 0.39%	8
9	ORL	8.974	8.954	- 0.22%	5
10	AAX	4.485	4.478	- 0.16%	5

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	SYD	0.682	7.082	938.42%	6
2	PAN	4.400	5.050	14.77%	4
3	TAP	3.100	3.300	6.45%	4
4	WSA	30.750	32.333	5.15%	6
5	RRL	15.700	16.375	4.30%	4
6	RSG	26.350	27.200	3.23%	3
7	IAG	23.450	23.975	2.24%	8
8	QBE	130.559	131.524	0.74%	8
9	AAX	33.960	34.140	0.53%	5
10	AMC	50.963	51.188	0.44%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	SFR	17.260	- 12.100	- 170.10%	5
2	AWE	8.286	3.371	- 59.32%	7
3	IGO	6.420	4.080	- 36.45%	5
4	QUB	7.600	6.700	- 11.84%	4
5	VAH	3.500	3.260	- 6.86%	5
6	HGG	18.310	17.685	- 3.41%	5
7	PBG	7.925	7.688	- 2.99%	7
8	IPL	29.600	28.730	- 2.94%	8
9	BOQ	97.425	95.538	- 1.94%	8
10	ORI	189.525	186.938	- 1.36%	8

Technical limitations

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Weekly Broker Wrap: More Model Portfolios Adjustments

By Chris Shaw

With Australia's interim reporting season out of the way investment banks and equity brokers continue making adjustments to their recommended exposures and model portfolios. The week past saw Macquarie, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Credit Suisse update their views and macro-recommendations (top down), while JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank undertook in-depth reviews of companies in the building materials sector.

The general outlook in Macquarie's view is global economic growth won't be fast and will continue to be impacted by concerns such as Europe and Iran, but growth will continue on an upward trajectory. This suggests 1H12 will be broadly constructive for global equities, with the US market likely to lead the way.

Domestically, Macquarie suggests headwinds for the Australian market are greater than for most given the combination of a strong dollar, relatively high interest rates, negative productivity growth and an inflexible industrial relations framework.

This has left Australia uncompetitive across a wide range of industries and is likely to see corporate management teams look to cut costs in an attempt to restore cash flows. This leads Macquarie to suggest FY12 earnings per share (EPS) growth will be negative by around 5.0% (current consensus expectations are sitting around +4%).

Sectors where above average growth is expected are Energy and Mining Services, Macquarie's recommended portfolio being already overweight both. This position is being extended via the addition of Santos ((STO)), with this position being funded by a move to Underweight on BHP Billiton ((BHP)) given an expectation of negative earnings growth this year.

This means Macquarie's overall resource allocation is unchanged. Other resource and energy stocks in Macquarie's recommended portfolio include Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Atlas Iron ((AGO)), PanAust ((PNA)), Oz Minerals ((OZL)), Woodside ((WPL)), WorleyParsons ((WOR)) and Origin Energy ((ORG)).

Outside of the resource sector Macquarie continues to favour a defensive portfolio, with a concentration on a small number of stocks expected to deliver strong top line growth and companies expected to deliver stable and sustainably high dividend yields.

Among the industrial plays in the first category Macquarie's portfolio includes Campbell Brothers ((CPB)), Mineral Resources ((MIN)), WorleyParsons, Ansell ((ANN)) and Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)), while the second category includes of Telstra ((TLS)), Transurban ((TCL)), Wesfarmers ((WES)), Coca-Cola Amatil ((CCL)), CFX Retail Property ((CFX)) and GPT ((GPT)).

Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) and Amcor ((AMC)) are also overweight holdings in Macquarie's recommended portfolio.

Goldman Sachs has made a similar review of its model portfolio and concluded now is an appropriate time to turn more cautious on resources, this given a tougher environment to outperform given volume growth rather than higher commodity prices is currently driving earnings.

Key investment themes for Goldman Sachs are a solid earnings profile, especially when combined with an attractive dividend yield, mining investment, energy and deep value plays where re-ratings are possible as market sentiment improves.

This has brought about some model portfolio changes, with Goldman Sachs reducing its exposure to BHP while exiting positions in Rio Tinto, Iluka ((ILU)) and Origin Energy. This created the issue of where to invest the funds being freed up, with major beneficiaries being Telstra and CSL ((CSL)) for the solid earnings theme and WorleyParsons for exposure to energy and the mining investment theme. Woodside and Oil Search ((OSH)) remain the preferred energy stocks.

Among the deep cyclical exposures, Goldman Sachs has switched out of Myer ((MYR)) and into Super Retail ((SUL)), this reflecting the latter's more attractive growth profile and lower execution risk in relation to growth strategies.

The MSCI AC World Index delivered a gain of 5.1% in February, which followed a return of 5.9% in January. But as Citi points out via its model portfolio, investing in the right market at the right time can deliver even better returns.

Citi's stock market country selection model, which is based on 22 global markets for which ETFs are available, outperformed the benchmark by 0.6% in February, mainly due to relative outperformance from the Austrian and South African markets during the month.

Austria retains its place at the top of Citi's rankings for the second month in a row, while Germany has moved up to number two position. Brazil has fallen out of that spot to position seven in Citi's rankings. Completing the top five are Korea at number three, Australia at number four and South Africa at number five spot.

At the bottom of the rankings Citi has replaced Hong Kong and Switzerland with Spain and the US, while Italy, Belgium and Mexico continue to hold their places in the bottom five rankings. The shift into this bottom five for the US reflects unfavourable valuation, while Citi points out Spain's inclusion is a reflection of poor short-term momentum and negative earnings revisions.

Market strategists at Credit Suisse used their final wrap of the February reporting season to warn investors not to get too excited about the short term prospects for Australian equities. The share market is merely "fair value", argue Atul Lele and his team, and there remain plenty of headwinds, the lack of any noteworthy growth in profits is only one of them.

Credit Suisse has decided to remain overweight defensives and USD exposures, neutral banks, slightly underweight domestic cyclicals and underweight resources.

JP Morgan has reviewed the outlook for the Building Materials sector, suggesting conditions remain tough given the Australian environment remains weak and the pace of recovery in the US is still slow. At least there are some pricing tailwinds in Australia, which compares to an expectation of further headwinds for prices in the US market.

In individual stock terms, JP Morgan sees some room for optimism with respect to prices for Boral ((BLD)), which would be a positive given the group's leverage to concrete and aggregate prices. This is enough for an Overweight rating to be maintained, a rating also extended to CSR ((CSR)).

For Adelaide Brighton ((ABC)) FY12 will be the key in JP Morgan's view, as a return to growth is needed after FY11 was the first year of no growth in net profit after tax for six years. Adelaide Brighton is currently rated as Neutral, as is Fletcher Building ((FBU)). This reflects a recent cut to full year earnings guidance and the lack of a significant enough lift in NZ data to drive any change to the broker's view.

James Hardie remains the only Underweight rating in the building materials sector for JP Morgan, this due to pricing headwinds that are offsetting any benefits from volume improvements that are starting to emerge. Prices are expected to remain under pressure in coming months while management attempts to retain or grow category share.

Deutsche Bank has conducted a similar review of the building materials sector, agreeing with the assessment of JP Morgan the current demand environment remains under pressure. Where Deutsche's view differs is it sees some upside potential for companies exposed to the US housing market, though any recovery is likely to be a cautious one given a still somewhat fragile economic recovery.

In terms of the outlook across the sector, Deutsche remains of the view market forecasts for Boral and Fletcher Building remain too high, while there is still some balance sheet risk for both companies at present.

A favourable exposure to mining and engineering projects sees Deutsche retain Adelaide Brighton as its top pick in the sector. The fact the company is significantly overweight Western and South Australia should see better than average demand growth relative to other states, which supports Deutsche's Buy rating. A further positive is Adelaide Brighton appears inexpensive relative to peers. In contrast, Deutsche rates Boral, Fletcher Building and James Hardie as Hold.

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The Short Report

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By Chris Shaw

For the week from February 21 the most significant changes in short positions were reductions in total shorts, with five companies seeing reductions of more than 2.0 percentage points from the previous week.

The largest reduction in total shorts was in Gunns ((GNS)), where positions fell to 1.98% from 6.25% the week prior. The change in positions was prior to an interim profit result impacted by asset impairments and revaluations and followed a proposed capital raising that would strengthen the group's balance sheet. The share price rallied.

Shorts in retailer The Reject Shop ((TRS)) fell to 3.62% from 6.55%, the change again coming after interim earnings for the company that brokers viewed as solid and suggestive of reduced financial risks surrounding the company. Shares in The Reject Shop have since rallied strongly too.

Wesfarmers ((WES)) again saw a decline in shorts in its new securities ((WESN)) to a total position of just 0.11%, down from 2.44% the week before. This followed a solid interim, though Macquarie suggested some disappointment in that the company appears to have a focus on value creation while the market is looking for growth. Shorts in the regular Wesfarmers shares also declined during the week, to 2.53% from 3.39% previously. Shares in Wesfarmers have failed to rally, instead they discovered that trending south is the path of least resistance.

While still the number one stock for short positions on the market, total shorts in JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) fell during the week from February 21 to 19.4% from 21.7%. While the company met guidance with its interim result, brokers remain cautious given a still tough consumer discretionary market. Shares in JB Hi-Fi have also failed to rally. Just like Wesfarmers, they have weakened instead.

Stocks exposed to the consumer discretionary sector continue to dominate the top short positions, as along with JB Hi-Fi the top 20 includes Myer ((MYR)), David Jones ((DJS)), Billabong ((BBG)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Flight Centre ((FLT)).

Of these, Billabong also enjoyed a solid fall in total shorts for the week from February 21, positions declining to around 8.8% from nearly 11% the previous week as the company continues to look at restructuring options and remains of interest to private equity.

There were no increases in short positions of 1.0% or more in the week from February 21 but closest was Ten Network ((TEN)), where total shorts increased to 6.2% from 5.3% previously. Ten's latest guidance update was disappointing and left brokers with the expectation further cuts to consensus earnings numbers were likely. A similar increase in shorts was seen in Western Areas ((WSA)), which came after an interim report that fell a little short of expectations due to the timing of some ore shipments.

Among the monthly changes, Rialto Energy ((RIA)) saw shorts increase from 0.2% to around 5.0% and SingTel ((SGT)) to 5.4% from 3.1%, while shorts in Gunns, JB Hi-Fi and The Reject Shop all declined by 2.6% to 3.0%.

While Flight Centre remains among the top 20 short positions, BA Merrill Lynch is not sure the market's concerns over the outlook for consumer discretionary stocks is appropriate in this case. This is because Flight Centre has a more flexible business structure and a dominant market share and faces less short-term structural threats than others in the sector.

Tabcorp ((TAH)) remains well down the list in terms of total short positions, standing at just 1.31% for the week from February 21. But as RBS Australia notes, this has increased by almost double over the past few weeks, something RBS sees as a reflection of ongoing challenges including weak organic revenue growth and an expense base that is difficult to control. In RBS's view Tabcorp is a stock that will struggle to outperform the broader market given this issues.

Previous research conducted by RBS suggests increasing numbers in short positions are usually closely linked to share price underperformance in the following weeks, if not months.

Top 20 Largest Short Positions

Rank	Symbol	Short Position	Total Product	%Short
1	JBH	19175716	98840643	19.40
2	FXJ	269023275	2351955725	11.45
3	ISO	586412	5403165	10.85
4	MYR	61159541	583384551	10.46
5	DJS	52413224	524940325	9.96
6	FLT	9627616	100009946	9.59
7	BBG	22544808	255102103	8.82
8	COH	4990491	56922933	8.75
9	LYC	146148090	1714396913	8.53
10	WTF	14582724	211736244	6.87
11	HVN	70934517	1062316784	6.67
12	TEN	64765918	1045236720	6.19
13	SEK	19199119	337101307	5.69
14	PPT	2339462	41980678	5.57
15	CRZ	13024435	233264223	5.56
16	SGT	9943853	183608625	5.41
17	ILU	21922037	418700517	5.23
18	WSA	9352753	179735899	5.20
19	RIA	21505734	431256264	4.99
20	RIO	20840257	435758720	4.77

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

Technical limitations

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The Short Report

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By Chris Shaw

The week from February 14 was relatively quiet in terms of significant changes in short positions, only 10 stocks experiencing changes in total short positions of more than one percentage point.

Among the increases the largest was in Wesfarmers ((WESN)), where total positions increased from 0.04% to 2.44%. At the same time shorts in the ordinary shares of Wesfarmers also rose to 3.39% from 2.86% previously, this following an interim earnings result that missed on a few key metrics (margins for Coles included).

Shorts continued to rise in Cochlear, hitting 9.59% for the week from February 14 compared to 8.4% the week before, again post what was a solid interim for some in the market but a less positive result in the view of others including UBS given a decline in unit sales.

Little covered Alliance Aviation ((AQZ)) and Tangiers Petroleum ((TPT)) both saw shorts jump from a negligible levels of less than 0.25% the previous week to more than 1.0% respectively, while Paladin ((PDN)) and Iluka ((ILU)) also saw modest increases in total short positions.

In terms of declining short positions, Linc Energy ((LNC)) saw shorts fall from a somewhat significant 5.75% the week before to 2.94% for the week from February 14, while Shorts in Southern Cross Media ((SXL)) declined from 2.3% to 0.44% after the company announced a share buyback with its interim result.

Shorts in Hastings Diversified ((HDF)) fell to 0.41% from 1.88% the previous week as the market adjusts to a proposed acquisition of the company by APA Group ((APA)). The next largest decline in shorts was in Energy World Corporation ((EWC)), where positions in the junior fell to 1.33% from 2.68% the week before.

With respect to monthly changes, the major increases were experienced by Rialto Energy ((RIA)) and Singapore Telecom ((SGT)), increases of more than 5.0 and 3.0 percentage points in each case pushing total shorts to 5.23% and 4.88% respectively.

The major decline over the month from January 20 has been in the iShares Small Ords derivative ((ISO)), where total shorts have fallen to 10.58% from 17.24% previously. From a stock perspective, the major decline was in Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)), shorts falling to 3.28% from just over 5.0% previously.

The changes in positions have not impacted significantly on the top 20 short positions, which continue to be dominated by consumer discretionary stocks. Among the top 20 continue to be JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), Myer ((MYR)), David Jones ((DJS)), Billabong ((BBG)), Flight Centre ((FLT)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)), The Reject Shop ((TRS)) and Wotif.com ((WTF)).

Among these companies the pick of the interim results appeared to come from Wotif.com, where headline results were a little better than had been expected. While this was due in part to one-off cost cutting, the result was enough to prompt a solid rally in the share price that may have reflected some covering of short positions.

Top 20 Largest Short Positions

Rank	Symbol	Short Position	Total Product	%Short
1	JBH	21449536	98840643	21.70
2	MYR	70933745	583384551	12.12
3	FXJ	282570650	2351955725	12.04
4	DJS	58355903	524940325	11.09
5	BBG	28028623	255102103	10.96
6	ISO	571468	5403165	10.58
7	COH	5450536	56902933	9.59
8	FLT	9517934	100009946	9.49
9	LYC	156953209	1714396913	9.15
10	HVN	74774546	1062316784	7.05
11	SEK	23486633	337101307	6.94
12	WTF	14407551	211736244	6.82
13	TRS	1714382	26071170	6.55
14	GNS	53124711	848401559	6.25
15	VLC	10000	160001	6.25
16	OST	80037613	1342393583	5.96
17	CRZ	13890041	233264223	5.94
18	PPT	2284897	41980678	5.43
19	TEN	55392137	1045236720	5.31
20	RIA	22560161	431256264	5.23

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

With earnings season almost complete it has been a busy week for changes to broker ratings, the FNArena database showing a total of 19 upgrades and 51 downgrades to recommendations by the eight brokers covered. Total Buy ratings now stand at 52.15%, well down from 53.86% last week.

Among the upgrades were four companies where ratings were lifted by more than one broker – these were Bendigo and Adelaide Bank ((BEN)), CSL ((CSL)), David Jones ((DJS)) and Toll Holdings ((TOL)).

For Bendigo Bank, both RBS Australia and BA Merrill Lynch upgraded to Hold recommendations from Sell previously, the former as the recent profit result showed some signs of stabilisation and the latter on valuation grounds post recent share price weakness. Across the market price targets and earnings estimates for the bank were adjusted.

In contrast to a less bad result from Bendigo Bank, CSL delivered strong earnings thanks to albumin and specialty products performing well. Brokers lifted earnings estimates and price targets on the back of the result and both Macquarie and BA-ML now see enough value to upgrade to Buy ratings from Neutral previously.

For David Jones ((DLS)) it was the turn of both UBS and RBS Australia to upgrade to Neutral ratings from Sell previously, this to reflect both better value on the back of recent share price weakness and the company having better positioned itself for stronger FY13 results by clearing excess inventory.

Toll Holdings ((TOL)) has also improved its position and with potential for new contracts and some scope for positive earnings surprise relative to low expectations, both Macquarie and Deutsche Bank have upgrade to Buy ratings. This was partially offset by Credit Suisse downgrading to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds.

Among the other upgrades, a strong result from Ausenco ((AAX)) prompted UBS to reverse a recent downgrade and move to Buy from Sell, almost doubling its price target for the stock in the process. A similarly solid Coca-Cola Amatil ((CCL)) result, particularly given tough markets and a dispute with a key customer (Woolworths), was enough for Credit Suisse to upgrade to a Neutral view.

Emerging value following recent underperformance was enough for Citi to upgrade Oil Search ((OSH)) to Buy from Neutral, while around the market earnings estimates and price targets for the stock were largely increased following a better than expected profit result.

Super Retail Group ((SUL)) delivered one of the standout results in the consumer discretionary sector and this was enough for BA-ML to upgrade to a Buy rating, while again estimates and price targets across the market were lifted post the result.

On the downgrade side those companies copping a cut in rating from more than one broker were Charter Hall Office ((CQO)), Envestra ((ENV)), Fleetwood ((FWD)), iiNet ((IIN)), Industrea ((IDL)), Kingsgate Consolidated ((KCN)), Ramsay Health ((RHC)), Tatts Group ((TTS)), Woodside ((WPL)) and Wotif.com ((WTF)).

Valuation was behind the downgrades to both Charter Hall Office and Envestra, with both Credit Suisse and Citi seeing limited share price upside from current levels for the former even allowing for current corporate interest and RBS and Macquarie taking similar views with respect to the latter.

While Fleetwood's result was broadly as expected, the solid earnings outlook is now priced in according to RBS, a view shared by both UBS and Credit Suisse. For iiNet increasing competitive pressures means the result was a little on the disappointing side for both RBS and Credit Suisse, while both also see less relative value in the stock at current levels than was the case a few months ago.

A poor profit result from Industrea meant earnings estimate across the market have been cut significantly, which leaves the outlook for little earnings growth this unattractive when compared to peers. The earnings miss has also raised the question of management credibility in the view of BA-ML.

Kingsgate Consolidated's earnings were broadly in line with expectations but the company surprised by announcing a capital raising that prompted cuts to estimates and targets. As well, Kingsgate faces a challenging year from an operational perspective in the view of both Citi and BA-ML.

Uncertainty with respect to the outcome of proposed changes to private health insurance pose enough risks for Ramsay Health that both Macquarie and Deutsche Bank downgraded to a Neutral rating, this despite a result broadly in line with expectations. Valuation was behind the downgrade of Credit Suisse.

Limited upside potential, especially given some recent share price strength, saw both Macquarie and Citi downgrade to Sell ratings on Tatts, while less value following recent gains was enough for Citi and Credit Suisse to downgrade Woodside to Neutral from Outperform in both cases. A similar story is behind downgrades by Macquarie and BA-ML on Wotif.com, as tough market conditions suggest limited upside from current share p[rice levels.

In terms of changes to price targets, the largest increase was seen in Ausenco, as along with the near doubling in target from UBS, the likes of RBS, Macquarie and Deutsche also lifted their targets significantly.

Aside from the capital raising induced changes to targets for Kingsgate, the most significant cut in target was experienced by Alumina Ltd ((AWC)), both RBS Australia and JP Morgan cutting their targets on revisions to earnings and related commodity price estimates.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	AUSENCO LTD	Sell	Buy	UBS
2	BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	RBS Australia
3	BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED	Neutral	Neutral	BA-Merrill Lynch
4	BILLABONG INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
5	CFS RETAIL PROPERTY TRUST	Neutral	Buy	UBS
6	COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	Credit Suisse
7	COMMONWEALTH PROPERTY OFFICE FUND	Sell	Neutral	Credit Suisse
8	CSL LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
9	CSL LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	BA-Merrill Lynch
10	DAVID JONES LIMITED	Neutral	Neutral	RBS Australia
11	DAVID JONES LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	UBS
12	MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS GROUP	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
13	MIRVAC GROUP	Neutral	Buy	Credit Suisse
14	OIL SEARCH LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Citi
15	PERPETUAL LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	UBS
16	SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Credit Suisse
17	SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	BA-Merrill Lynch
18	TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
19	TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
Downgrade
20	AMCOR LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	BA-Merrill Lynch
21	AMP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
22	BILLABONG INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	Buy	Sell	Credit Suisse
23	CHALLENGER FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP	Buy	Neutral	Citi
24	CHARTER HALL OFFICE REIT	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
25	CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT	Neutral	Neutral	UBS
26	COMMONWEALTH PROPERTY OFFICE FUND	Buy	Neutral	UBS
27	DISCOVERY METALS LIMITED	Neutral	Neutral	Citi
28	DIVERSIFIED UTILITY AND ENERGY TRUSTS	Buy	Neutral	UBS
29	DOWNER EDI LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
30	ENVESTRA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
31	ENVESTRA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
32	FKP PROPERTY GROUP	Neutral	Sell	Citi
33	FLEETWOOD CORPORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
34	FLEETWOOD CORPORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
35	FLEETWOOD CORPORATION LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
36	FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
37	FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
38	GR ENGINEERING SERVICES LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
39	IINET LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
40	IINET LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
41	ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
42	INDUSTREA LIMITED	Buy	Sell	BA-Merrill Lynch
43	INDUSTREA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
44	KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
45	KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Citi
46	KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	BA-Merrill Lynch
47	MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS GROUP	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
48	MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED	Sell	Sell	UBS
49	PERSEUS MINING LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
50	RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
51	RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
52	RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
53	REA GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
54	SEEK LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
55	ST BARBARA LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Citi
56	TATTS GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
57	TATTS GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Citi
58	TATTS GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
59	TATTS GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
60	TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
61	TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
62	TOX FREE SOLUTIONS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
63	Transpacific Industries Group Ltd	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
64	TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
65	UNITED GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
66	WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
67	WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
68	WOOLWORTHS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
69	WOTIF.COM HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
70	WOTIF.COM HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	BA-Merrill Lynch

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	AAX	25.0%	100.0%	75.0%	4
2	SYD	- 25.0%	17.0%	42.0%	6
3	MGR	43.0%	71.0%	28.0%	7
4	CSL	38.0%	63.0%	25.0%	8
5	GNC	50.0%	67.0%	17.0%	6
6	OST	57.0%	71.0%	14.0%	7
7	CFX	57.0%	71.0%	14.0%	7
8	SHL	75.0%	88.0%	13.0%	8
9	OSH	75.0%	88.0%	13.0%	8
10	GMG	63.0%	75.0%	12.0%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	KCN	60.0%	- 20.0%	- 80.0%	5
2	TTS	38.0%	- 13.0%	- 51.0%	8
3	IIN	80.0%	40.0%	- 40.0%	5
4	ENV	17.0%	- 17.0%	- 34.0%	6
5	TOX	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	3
6	AMP	88.0%	63.0%	- 25.0%	8
7	WES	38.0%	13.0%	- 25.0%	8
8	WPL	38.0%	13.0%	- 25.0%	8
9	AMC	75.0%	50.0%	- 25.0%	8
10	ILU	88.0%	63.0%	- 25.0%	8

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	AAX	3.110	4.485	44.21%	4
2	REA	13.243	13.963	5.44%	7
3	EHL	1.218	1.283	5.34%	6
4	DOW	4.146	4.367	5.33%	7
5	FLT	23.448	24.660	5.17%	8
6	IIN	3.232	3.380	4.58%	5
7	TPI	0.877	0.915	4.33%	6
8	OST	1.203	1.253	4.16%	7
9	TOX	2.583	2.683	3.87%	3
10	CSL	34.293	35.516	3.57%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	KCN	8.966	7.435	- 17.08%	5
2	AWC	1.784	1.589	- 10.93%	8
3	PBG	0.737	0.672	- 8.82%	7
4	CGF	5.474	5.039	- 7.95%	7
5	BEN	8.986	8.513	- 5.26%	8
6	WES	31.961	30.335	- 5.09%	8
7	AMP	5.054	4.834	- 4.35%	8
8	SFR	8.800	8.440	- 4.09%	5
9	GFF	0.593	0.569	- 4.05%	8
10	PRU	3.853	3.712	- 3.66%	6

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	GBG	0.057	1.343	2256.14%	6
2	AIO	18.625	26.325	41.34%	8
3	AAX	27.380	33.960	24.03%	4
4	SKE	18.767	21.233	13.14%	3
5	BLY	42.214	47.184	11.77%	8
6	CTX	119.600	132.867	11.09%	6
7	MAH	7.200	7.825	8.68%	4
8	GNC	85.683	92.200	7.61%	6
9	SDM	18.500	19.867	7.39%	3
10	ASL	33.440	35.840	7.18%	5

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	AWC	1.416	0.144	- 89.83%	8
2	SFR	27.450	17.260	- 37.12%	5
3	WHC	27.717	17.550	- 36.68%	6
4	MQA	28.300	22.183	- 21.61%	6
5	GFF	6.363	5.300	- 16.71%	8
6	AIX	21.650

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

In what may be either a barometer on reporting season to date or an indication recent market gains are making value harder to find, the FNArena database has seen 28 ratings downgrades over the past week. This compares to just eight upgrades and means total Buy recommendations now stand at 53.86%.

Among the upgrades was Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), where Citi lifted its rating to Neutral from Sell to reflect a few factors becoming less negative than had been the case. Changes to earnings estimates meant a lift in price target and this also supported the rating upgrade.

Also scoring an upgrade by Citi was Graincorp ((GNC)), the broker moving to Buy from Neutral as the company's guidance for full year earnings came in above expectations. The guidance remains conservative in Citi's view and with valuation attractive at current levels a more positive rating is now justified. Price target was also increased.

There is also longer-term value on offer in JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) in the view of Macquarie, who expects an eventual recovery in consumer spending and so an eventual recovery in the JB Hi-Fi share price. Others struggle to see such value, as Credit Suisse downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on the stock given an uncertain medium-term outlook and few shorter-term catalysts.

While Primary Health Care's ((PRY)) interim result missed expectations full year earnings guidance has been maintained, which was enough for both RBS Australia and Credit Suisse to adopt more positive views. Both brokers upgraded to Buy ratings from Neutral previously, with valuation the catalyst for the change following recent share price underperformance.

Interim earnings from Transfield ((TSE)) and updated full year guidance didn't prompt a lot of changes to broker models, but JP Morgan saw enough to upgrade to Overweight from Neutral. More disciplined capital use and improved efficiencies are positives, while the broker sees an expected share buyback as share price supportive as well.

AGL Energy ((AGK)) was among those stocks suffering a downgrade in rating, RBS moving to a Neutral recommendation from Buy previously. This is because while a move to acquire more of the Loy Yang A asset is likely, so too is a capital raising to pay for any such acquisition.

Alumina Ltd ((AWC)) has also been downgraded by both RBS and Credit Suisse to Neutral ratings from Buy, the former as while earnings were as expected the decision to pay a dividend rather than pay down debt was disappointing. For Credit Suisse the problem is the market and while prices mean some capacity will be removed, it will take some time for higher pricing to flow through to improved earnings for Alumina.

Credit Suisse has also downgraded both AMP ((AMP)) and ARB Corporation ((ARP)) to Neutral from Outperform recommendations, the former as the latest result showed a deterioration in balance sheet quality and the latter on valuation grounds given an elevated current earnings multiple.

For Beach Petroleum ((BPT)), Citi's downgrade to a Sell from Neutral comes despite guidance coming in well above the broker's estimate. The big concern for Citi remains the cost and viability of the Cooper Shale Gas operations, which leaves the broker preferring the likes of Santos ((STO)) in the sector.

Citi also downgraded Bunnings Warehouse Property ((BWP)) to Neutral from Buy, as while a solid profit result was posted a lack of valuation upside is likely to make any share price outperformance difficult from here.

Macquarie downgraded Carsales.com ((CRZ)) to Underperform from Outperform as post the interim result there appears to be more downside than upside risk. This largely reflects Macquarie's expectation of a market share war with rising competitor Carsguide.

David Jones ((DJS)) also offers some downside earnings risk in the view of Credit Suisse, enough for the broker to downgrade to an Underperform rating. The broker also has some shorter-term concerns given the loss of Stephen Goddard as CFO.

Still tough market conditions have seen Macquarie lower earnings estimates and price target for GWA ((GWA)). The broker has downgraded to a Neutral rating from Outperform. Valuation is the issue for James Hardie ((JHX)) according to UBS and sees a downgrade to Sell from Neutral, while RBS has downgraded Mermaid Marine ((MRM)) to Hold from Buy on the same basis.

A more cautious approach to the group's Middle East operations has been enough for Deutsche Bank to downgrade Leighton Holdings ((LEI)) to a Neutral rating from Buy previously, while tepid earnings guidance from Oakton ((OKN)) given still tough IT markets has prompted both UBS and Credit Suisse to downgrade to Neutral ratings from Buy previously.

Increased costs for non-core ventures prompted a profit warning from Mortgage Choice ((MOC)) and this was enough for UBS to downgrade to a Sell rating from Neutral. Earnings estimates were also adjusted lower, meaning a cut in price target.

Among resource plays both Oz Minerals ((OZL)) and Paladin ((PDN)) suffered two downgrades during the week, the former on valuation grounds and the latter given some concerns in the market with respect to cash generation ability leading into some debt maturities.

In the view of RBS, the slight miss with respect to earnings at Coles could put some pressure on the Wesfarmers ((WES)) share price, while Macquarie's downgrade on Westfield Group ((WDC)) reflects better value elsewhere in the sector.

Lower margins and higher costs at Royal Wolf Holdings ((RWH)) saw Macquarie downgrade forecasts and its recommendation to Neutral from Outperform, while the broker similarly downgraded its rating on Slater and Gordon ((SGH)) post what was perceived as a disappointing interim. Finally, recent share price outperformance from Tatts ((TTS)) has been enough for Deutsche Bank to downgrade to a Hold rating.

Most significant in terms of changes to price targets were increases for Domino's Pizza ((DMP)) as brokers lifted estimates on the back of a strong interim result, while targets for Alumina Ltd and Paladin both fell as lower earnings forecasts were incorporated into models.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA	Sell	Neutral	Citi
2	GRAINCORP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Citi
3	JB HI-FI LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
4	PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
5	PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Credit Suisse
6	TRANSFIELD SERVICES LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	JP Morgan
Downgrade
7	AGL ENERGY LTD	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
8	ALUMINA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
9	ALUMINA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
10	AMP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
11	ARB CORPORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
12	BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Citi
13	BUNNINGS WAREHOUSE PROPERTY TRUST	Buy	Neutral	Citi
14	CARSALES.COM LIMITED	Buy	Sell	Macquarie
15	DAVID JONES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
16	GWA GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
17	JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.	Neutral	Sell	UBS
18	JB HI-FI LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
19	LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
20	MERMAID MARINE AUSTRALIA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
21	MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	UBS
22	OAKTON LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
23	OAKTON LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
24	OZ MINERALS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	UBS
25	OZ MINERALS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
26	PALADIN ENERGY LTD	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
27	PALADIN ENERGY LTD	Buy	Neutral	UBS
28	PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
29	PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Neutral	Neutral	Macquarie
30	ROYAL WOLF HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
31	SLATER & GORDON LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
32	TATTS GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
33	WESFARMERS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	RBS Australia
34	WESTFIELD GROUP	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	PRY	38.0%	63.0%	25.0%	8
2	TSE	40.0%	60.0%	20.0%	5
3	GNC	50.0%	67.0%	17.0%	6
4	CPU	57.0%	71.0%	14.0%	7
5	COH	- 38.0%	- 25.0%	13.0%	8
6	GMG	63.0%	75.0%	12.0%	8
7	AQG	50.0%	57.0%	7.0%	7
8	ROC	75.0%	80.0%	5.0%	5

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	BWP	50.0%	- 25.0%	- 75.0%	4
2	TRS	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	3
3	CRZ	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	6
4	PDN	71.0%	43.0%	- 28.0%	7
5	ARP	50.0%	25.0%	- 25.0%	4
6	OZL	50.0%	25.0%	- 25.0%	8
7	AWC	50.0%	25.0%	- 25.0%	8
8	GWA	50.0%	33.0%	- 17.0%	6
9	DMP	67.0%	50.0%	- 17.0%	6
10	MRM	83.0%	67.0%	- 16.0%	6

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	DMP	7.105	8.098	13.98%	6
2	COH	58.681	59.806	1.92%	8
3	MRM	3.502	3.567	1.86%	6
4	GNC	8.517	8.658	1.66%	6
5	TRS	11.617	11.767	1.29%	3
6	CBA	50.431	51.038	1.20%	8
7	LEI	23.434	23.626	0.82%	8
8	CPU	9.174	9.246	0.78%	7
9	CRZ	5.452	5.492	0.73%	6
10	TLS	3.373	3.391	0.53%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	AWC	1.784	1.589	- 10.93%	8
2	PDN	2.454	2.191	- 10.72%	7
3	TSE	2.770	2.580	- 6.86%	5
4	WES	31.961	30.549	- 4.42%	8
5	PRY	3.459	3.314	- 4.19%	8
6	AMP	5.149	4.986	- 3.17%	8
7	PBG	0.760	0.737	- 3.03%	7
8	DJS	2.713	2.656	- 2.10%	8
9	GWA	2.462	2.413	- 1.99%	6
10	AGK	16.489	16.295	- 1.18%	8

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	GBG	0.086	1.343	1461.63%	6
2	TAP	2.125	3.075	44.71%	4
3	ROC	6.009	6.536	8.77%	5
4	TAH	44.513	48.163	8.20%	8
5	GNC	85.683	92.200	7.61%	6
6	CTX	119.583	126.817	6.05%	6
7	AQG	73.818	77.711	5.27%	7
8	NCM	173.363	181.000	4.41%	8
9	PPT	134.986	140.157	3.83%	7
10	DMP	36.317	37.500	3.26%	6

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	SGM	111.971	- 10.914	- 109.75%	7
2	AQP	7.129	- 0.273	- 103.83%	5
3	AWC	1.417	0.181	- 87.23%	8
4	HZN	2.066	1.366	- 33.88%	4
5	WHC	27.717	20.317	- 26.70%	6
6	WSA	40.150	31.750	- 20.92%	6
7	GFF	6.363	5.450	- 14.35%	8
8	SAI	29.725	26.925	- 9.42%	8
9	OZL	88.271	80.663	- 8.62%	8
10	FMG	53.066	48.584	- 8.45%	8

Technical limitations

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