Tag Archives: Transport

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

The past week has seen downgrades again outnumber upgrades, as the eight brokers in the FNArena database have cut ratings on 10 stocks while lifting recommendations on just three. Total Buy ratings remain at 57.4%, little changed from last week.

Among those upgraded were Metcash ((MTS)) post the group's interim profit result. While the result was slightly weaker than the market had expected the medium-term earnings outlook is improved by the fact the legal uncertainty of the proposed Franklins acquisition has now mostly passed.

This was enough for JP Morgan to upgrade to a Neutral rating, while Credit Suisse went one better and upgraded Metcash to Outperform from Neutral to reflect both the Franklins purchase and improved valuation post recent share price weakness. Targets and earnings estimates were adjusted across the market.

Seven West Media ((SWM)) was the other upgrade for the week, Citi lifting its rating to Buy from Neutral. While ad market conditions remain difficult, the broker suggests lead indicators are turning a little more positive.

The still tough conditions mean stock selection will be important in the sector and here Citi also sees reasons to like Seven West relative to peers. Citi's upgrade was accompanied by changes to earnings estimates and price target. On the same basis Citi has downgraded APN News and Media ((APN)) to Neutral from Buy, while also cutting its price target for the stock.

An in-line interim result from Campbell Brothers ((CPB)) wasn't enough to stop Deutsche Bank downgrading the stock to Hold from Buy, though the change is a valuation call rather than one indicating any concerns over the growth outlook for the company. Forecasts and price targets for Campbell Brothers across the market rose on the back of the result.

Weak end markets continue to impact on earnings for GUD ((GUD)) and RBS Australia has lowered its estimates and price target accordingly. The changes have caused the broker to downgrade to a Hold rating on the stock.

Recent share price outperformance and the fact the company will be cycling tough comparable numbers in coming months has prompted RBS to downgrade Nufarm ((NUF)) to a Hold rating. There are only minor associated changes in forecasts and price target from brokers covering the stock post a trading update from management.

Primary Health Care ((PRY)) has offered fresh earnings guidance to the market in the past week but the issue for BA Merrill Lynch is the guidance doesn't appear to be conservative. This suggests limited scope for outperformance, which is enough for the broker to downgrade to a Neutral rating. The update from management has seen only minor changes to estimates and targets across the market.

A more disappointing trading update from management at Symex ((SYM)) has seen RBS take the axe to its numbers, the broker more than halving its price target. Given a debt/cost restructuring now looks more critical, the broker has downgraded to a Neutral rating.

RBS has also downgraded TPG Telecom ((TPM)) to a Hold rating, as while the company has lifted its stake in iiNet ((IIN)) the broker sees any deal between the two as difficult given cultural differences. The change in shareholding in iiNet also sees the broker adjust its price target and earnings assumptions.

Disappointing production guidance was enough for both BA-ML and UBS to downgrade ratings for Woodside, the former to Underperform and the latter to Neutral. Brokers across the market have cut earnings forecasts and price targets post the update, with a couple of mentions for Santos (STO)) as a preferred play in the sector at present.

Concerns over the growth profile for Wotif.com ((WTF)) have seen Citi downgrade to a Sell rating, this given concerns over too much leverage to domestic tourism. A cut in price target follows from changes to earnings estimates.

With UBS initiating coverage of Regis Resources ((RRL)) with a price target above others in the market there has been a lift in the consensus target for the stock, while the broker also sees some upside potential in Cardno ((CDD)) and has lifted its target there as well. The consensus target for Bathurst Resources ((BTU)) has also come down slightly on the back of Citi initiating coverage.

In terms of changes to earnings estimates, forecasts for Air New Zealand ((AIZ)) have come down to reflect high fuel costs, while weak guidance from management at Qantas ((QAN)) has also resulted in some cuts to expectations.

The potential for spending cuts in the IT sector have impacted on BA-ML's model for Technology One ((TNE)), while some adjustments to commodity price forecasts saw earnings estimates trimmed for Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

Higher costs have seen minor changes to models for Santos ((STO)), while the potential for Alacer Gold ((AQG)) to lose part of its stake in the Copler project proved enough for UBS to cut its numbers and price target.

On the positive revision side, higher than expected guidance from Miclyn Offshore ((MIO)) saw Macquarie lift its estimates and price target, while the broker also made some changes to its model for Macquarie Atlas ((MQA)).

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	Metcash Limited	Sell	Neutral	JP Morgan
2	Metcash Limited	Neutral	Buy	Credit Suisse
3	SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Citi
Downgrade
4	APN NEWS & MEDIA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
5	Campbell Brothers Limited	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
6	G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
7	NUFARM LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
8	PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	BA-Merrill Lynch
9	SYMEX HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
10	TPG TELECOM LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
11	WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	BA-Merrill Lynch
12	WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
13	WOTIF.COM HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Citi

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	MMX	- 67.0%	- 33.0%	34.0%	3
2	MTS	- 13.0%	13.0%	26.0%	8
3	BTU	50.0%	67.0%	17.0%	3
4	GNC	50.0%	67.0%	17.0%	6
5	SUL	33.0%	50.0%	17.0%	6
6	RFG	50.0%	67.0%	17.0%	3
7	SWM	63.0%	75.0%	12.0%	8
8	AQG	40.0%	50.0%	10.0%	6
9	RRL	67.0%	75.0%	8.0%	4
10	CDD	67.0%	75.0%	8.0%	4

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	WPL	63.0%	38.0%	- 25.0%	8
2	TPM	100.0%	75.0%	- 25.0%	4
3	ORL	100.0%	80.0%	- 20.0%	5
4	CHC	100.0%	83.0%	- 17.0%	6
5	GUD	67.0%	50.0%	- 17.0%	6
6	CPB	29.0%	14.0%	- 15.0%	7
7	BSL	43.0%	29.0%	- 14.0%	7
8	WTF	38.0%	25.0%	- 13.0%	8
9	NUF	38.0%	25.0%	- 13.0%	8
10	DJS	- 25.0%	- 38.0%	- 13.0%	8

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	MMX	0.203	0.390	92.12%	3
2	RRL	3.257	3.618	11.08%	4
3	CPB	49.327	50.830	3.05%	7
4	SWM	4.045	4.151	2.62%	8
5	CDD	6.213	6.333	1.93%	4
6	CHC	2.482	2.500	0.73%	6
7	NUF	4.843	4.866	0.47%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	BSL	0.851	0.627	- 26.32%	7
2	WPL	44.009	40.099	- 8.88%	8
3	RFG	3.085	2.913	- 5.58%	3
4	APN	1.140	1.081	- 5.18%	8
5	BTU	1.000	0.967	- 3.30%	3
6	WTF	4.348	4.216	- 3.04%	8
7	TPM	1.860	1.820	- 2.15%	4
8	DJS	2.796	2.745	- 1.82%	8
9	GUD	9.048	8.898	- 1.66%	6
10	GNC	8.675	8.533	- 1.64%	6

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	COF	8.733	9.733	11.45%	3
2	RRL	15.867	17.150	8.09%	4
3	RFG	26.150	28.033	7.20%	3
4	CPB	286.857	305.329	6.44%	7
5	CDD	55.220	57.570	4.26%	4
6	GNC	79.377	82.617	4.08%	6
7	MIO	21.365	21.934	2.66%	4
8	MQA	8.267	8.433	2.01%	6
9	SWM	41.313	42.075	1.84%	8
10	SUL	51.117	51.717	1.17%	6

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	AIZ	10.322	7.791	- 24.52%	4
2	QAN	14.863	12.988	- 12.62%	8
3	TNE	7.767	7.200	- 7.30%	3
4	RIO	836.708	787.603	- 5.87%	8
5	STO	62.413	59.000	- 5.47%	8
6	AQG	59.396	56.725	- 4.50%	6
7	MML	67.870	64.922	- 4.34%	3
8	SLM	31.033	29.700	- 4.30%	6
9	IFL	43.900	42.700	- 2.73%	7
10	TEL	15.065	14.695	- 2.46%	8

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

The past week has been a relatively balanced one in terms of changes to ratings on stocks covered by the eight brokers in the FNArena database. A total of seven upgrades and eight ratings downgrades brought total Buy recommendations to 57.4%, down a little from nearly 57.7% last week.

Centro Retail ((CER)) was one to enjoy an upgrade, Deutche Bank moving to a Buy rating from Hold previously in response to revised aggregation terms. For Deutsche, the new terms significantly reduce the risk profile going forward, while offering additional incentives for unitholders to approve the proposal.

Following a review Deutsche also made minor changes to earnings estimates and lifted its price target for the stock. Elsewhere in the property sector, plans for a buyback of shares by Commonwealth Property Office ((CPA)) were enough for JP Morgan to upgrade to Overweight from Underweight. The buyback should act as a catalyst for the share price, while the broker is also attracted to low gearing levels and a conservative balance sheet as this offers scope for expansion opportunities.

In the resources sector, RBS Australia upgraded to Buy from Hold on Discovery Metals ((DML)), reflecting both upside from ongoing exploration success and to reflect improved valuation following recent share price weakness.

RBS also upgraded Kingsgate ((KCN)) to Buy from Hold on the expectation the ending of the wet season in northern Thailand will deliver improved quarterly production results from the Chatree project. The upgrade in rating comes despite a lowering of the broker's price target.

Murchison Metals ((MMX)) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight by JP Morgan on news the company has entered an agreement to sell its interests in Crosslands and OPR. The funds to be received imply a value of $0.47 per share and improve both the valuation and financial position of Murchison. JP Morgan's price target has been adjusted to reflect the valuation impact.

While Northern Iron ((NFE)) remains on track to meet production targets for the full year, the move by the company to raise a further $9 million from its debt facility to alleviate a tight cash position has also been viewed favourably by Macquarie. This is enough for an upgrade to an Outperform rating from Neutral previously.

Among industrials, Programmed Maintenance ((PRG)) enjoyed an upgrade from RBS Australia, the broker moving to Buy from Hold post a solid interim result. The result increases confidence in the outlook for Programmed and should also help restore some credibility in the market according to RBS.

BlueScope ((BSL)) was downgraded to Hold from Buy this week by RBS, the broker arguing while an equity raising will improve the group's balance sheet there remains a significant amount of earnings uncertainty. This uncertainty means a Buy rating is no longer appropriate in the broker's view.

Targets and earnings estimates for BlueScope have been adjusted across the market to account for the impact of the equity raising. OneSteel ((OST)) also saw cuts to earnings estimates and price targets post weak outlook commentary at its AGM during the week.

Cuts to iron ore prices by JP Morgan resulted in Gindalbie ((GBG)) being downgraded to Neutral from Overweight, while price target and earnings estimates were also reduced. It was a similar story for Mount Gibson ((MGX)), though in this case it was Citi lowering its numbers and downgrading to a Neutral rating from Buy previously.

In a tough week for IT stocks both Oakton ((OKN)) and SMS Management and Technology ((SMX)) were downgraded by RBS to Hold ratings from Buy. The changes reflect still difficult operating conditions in key markets. In both cases earnings estimates and price targets were also reduced.

Things are no easier for wealth managers as evidenced by weak guidance from IOOF ((IFL)), the update causing brokers to lower earnings forecasts and price targets. UBS also downgraded to a Neutral rating from Buy previously.

In contrast, Kathmandu ((KMD)) delivered a solid trading update but it only triggered minor changes to estimates. RBS has still downgraded to a Hold rating on valuation grounds post recent share price gains.

This week Telecom New Zealand ((TEL)) de-merged its network division and this has prompted brokers across the market to update their earnings models. Price targets have fallen across the board and Credit Suisse has downgraded to an Underperform rating from Neutral previously.

A solid second quarter result from James Hardie ((JHX)) has been enough to prompt some increases to earnings estimates and price targets, while brokers have gone the other way on David Jones ((DJS)) and trimmed forecasts and targets post yet another disappointing quarterly sales update from the department store owner.

NRW Holdings ((NWH)) delivered strong AGM earnings guidance and was being rewarded through increases to earnings estimates across the market, with all three brokers covering the stock also lifting price targets.

Forecasts for Virgin Blue ((VBA)) have also sneaked higher following solid AGM commentary, while a solid full year result from Graincorp ((GNC)) and expectations of another strong year to come have been enough for some minor revisions to estimates and price targets.

Following the acquisition of TransACT brokers have lifted forecasts for iiNet ((IIN)), the result being modest increases to price targets as well. Monadelphous ((MND)) has seen forecasts and price targets increase thanks again to positive outlook commentary at the group's AGM. Monadelphous is facing a different kind of problem than most other stocks in the Australian share market: ongoing popularity among buyers of equities. One recurring theme in stockbroker research on the company is thus, unsurprisingly, whether the shares are getting a bit expensive?

A slightly better than expected interim result has seen minor increases to forecasts for Thorn Group ((TGA)).

Shale gas developer and oil producer Beach ((BPT)) received some good news during the week with the Tantanna to Gidgealpa oil pipeline coming back on stream and this was enough for UBS to lift forecasts, while Credit Suisse revised some volume assumptions for Fortescue ((FMG)) that resulted in lower earnings estimates and a cut in price target.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	Centro Retail Group	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
2	COMMONWEALTH PROPERTY OFFICE FUND	Neutral	Buy	JP Morgan
3	DISCOVERY METALS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
4	KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
5	MURCHISON METALS LTD	Sell	Neutral	JP Morgan
6	NORTHERN IRON LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
7	PROGRAMMED MAINTENANCE SERVICES LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
Downgrade
8	BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
9	GINDALBIE METALS LTD	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
10	IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
11	KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
12	Mount Gibson Iron Limited	Buy	Neutral	Citi
13	OAKTON LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
14	SMS MANAGEMENT & TECHNOLOGY LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
15	TELECOM CORPORATION OF NEW ZEALAND LIMITED	Buy	Sell	Credit Suisse

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	MMX	- 67.0%	- 33.0%	34.0%	3
2	DML	25.0%	50.0%	25.0%	4
3	KCN	20.0%	40.0%	20.0%	5
4	CER	33.0%	50.0%	17.0%	4
5	PRG	86.0%	100.0%	14.0%	7
6	STO	75.0%	88.0%	13.0%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	MGX	75.0%	25.0%	- 50.0%	8
2	KMD	80.0%	60.0%	- 20.0%	5
3	AZT	80.0%	60.0%	- 20.0%	5
4	OKN	80.0%	60.0%	- 20.0%	5
5	SMX	100.0%	80.0%	- 20.0%	5
6	CHC	100.0%	83.0%	- 17.0%	6
7	GBG	100.0%	83.0%	- 17.0%	6
8	BSL	57.0%	43.0%	- 14.0%	7
9	IFL	71.0%	57.0%	- 14.0%	7
10	ORG	88.0%	75.0%	- 13.0%	8

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	MMX	0.220	0.390	77.27%	3
2	JHX	6.391	6.706	4.93%	8
3	PRG	2.357	2.437	3.39%	7
4	DML	1.608	1.640	1.99%	4
5	CER	0.350	0.355	1.43%	4
6	ILU	19.938	20.219	1.41%	8
7	KMD	2.083	2.103	0.96%	5
8	CHC	2.482	2.500	0.73%	6
9	ORG	17.455	17.456	0.01%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	BSL	1.356	0.851	- 37.24%	7
2	MGX	1.946	1.659	- 14.75%	8
3	AZT	12.870	11.540	- 10.33%	5
4	OKN	2.152	1.970	- 8.46%	5
5	GBG	1.078	0.995	- 7.70%	6
6	IFL	6.637	6.329	- 4.64%	7
7	SMX	6.790	6.478	- 4.59%	5
8	DJS	2.796	2.745	- 1.82%	8
9	KCN	8.744	8.664	- 0.91%	5

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	NWH	25.133	30.300	20.56%	3
2	VBA	2.871	3.014	4.98%	7
3	GNC	79.377	82.550	4.00%	6
4	JHX	29.699	30.791	3.68%	8
5	IIN	29.067	29.950	3.04%	5
6	PRU	22.517	23.183	2.96%	6
7	MND	119.183	122.583	2.85%	5
8	PRG	25.414	26.086	2.64%	7
9	TGA	19.467	19.967	2.57%	3
10	BPT	4.040	4.140	2.48%	5

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	AZT	39.460	17.980	- 54.43%	5
2	TEL	18.523	14.700	- 20.64%	8
3	GBG	0.771	0.671	- 12.97%	6
4	PPC	7.833	7.108	- 9.26%	6
5	OST	15.114	13.986	- 7.46%	7
6	MGX	40.863	38.088	- 6.79%	8
7	IFL	46.100	43.900	- 4.77%	7
8	CER	3.633	3.475	- 4.35%	4
9	FMG	66.072	63.294	- 4.20%	8
10	OKN	19.420	18.620	- 4.12%	5

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Qantas Shares At Cross Roads

The TechWizard has observed shares in Qantas ((QAN)) have bounced to circa $1.63 after falling from $3 to $1.18 earlier.

Technically, reports the Wizard, the shares are now sitting at resistance at the 20 moving average (M/A). This provides investors with two possibilities for the path ahead:

1. the shares resume their downtrend and revisit $1.20 soon

2. the shares run up to the top Bollinger band resistance at $2.00

The TechWizard believes we will see an end-of-the-year rally in equities and as such he favours scenario number two

The TechWizard is the pseudonym of Scott Morrison, whose experience in financial markets exceeds twenty years. Morrison operates his own website nowadays at www.techwizard.com.au. All views expressed are the TechWizard's, not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

The past week has proven to be a more balanced one for broker rating changes, the eight brokers in the FNArena database upgrading five ratings while downgrading seven stocks. Total Buy ratings now stand at 57.7%.

Among the upgrades was RBS Australia lifting its rating on Collection House ((CLH)) to Buy from Hold post a trading update that showed ongoing earnings momentum. While an equity raising is expected the size should be modest and given the move will reduce balance sheet leverage RBS sees the decision as a positive.

Also upgraded during the week was Computershare ((CPU)) after the company announced it had received approval for the acquisition of BNY Mellon Shareowner Services. Macquarie saw the announcement as enough of a positive to move to an Outperform rating from Underperform previously, given the long-term growth the deal should deliver.

Brokers across the market have adjusted earnings estimates and price targets for Computershare, not only to reflect the acquisition and two other small bolt-on deals, but to also include AGM earnings guidance that implied still weak operating conditions.

UBS upgraded Myer ((MYR)) post a quarterly sales result that met expectations, which for the broker implies evidence of some form of positive momentum building into the Christmas sales period. While no other ratings were adjusted brokers in general lifted earnings estimates and price targets for Myer on the back of the sales result.

An upgrade to Outperform from Neutral for Qantas ((QAN)) by Macquarie is a reflection of a de-risking of the earnings profile, this following some industrial resolutions. Macquarie has also lifted its price target but lowered earnings for FY12 to account for the airline paying compensation to passengers impacted by the recent grounding.

On the downgrade side of the ledger, Australian Pipeline Trust ((APA)) saw two downgrades during the week, Macquarie and Credit Suisse moving to Neutral ratings from Outperform previously to account for a less attractive valuation following recent gains for the former and a sector review by the latter.

Credit Suisse similarly downgraded Diversified Utility and Energy Trusts ((DUE)) to Neutral from Outperform as part of its sector review, while Macquarie has downgraded SP Ausnet ((SPN)) to Neutral from Outperform on the back of a fall in price target. The change reflects cuts to earnings forecasts to account for higher interest costs and a delay to some earnings.

Citi downgraded CSR ((CSR)) to Neutral from Buy post the interim earnings result, this as management downgraded the outlook for coming periods at the time of the result. Cuts to earnings estimates and price targets reflect ongoing headwinds, a theme identified also by others in the market.

Expectations of further falls in employment advertisement volumes have seen BA Merrill Lynch downgrade Seek ((SEK)) to Neutral from Buy, the move accompanied by cuts to earnings estimates and price target. As BA-ML points out, the current share price implies an unemployment rate of 6.0% for Australia, meaning there is downside risk if conditions in the labour market worsen beyond this level.

Citi has moved to Neutral from Buy on White Energy ((WEC)) to reflect uncertainty from news JV partner and coal supplier PT Bayan plans to increase the cost of feedstock coal. The move means increased risk to production expectations at the Tabang plant and so creates enough uncertainty for Citi to take a more cautious stance. The share price tanked following the news.

Ongoing uncertainty as to the full extent of recall issues for Cochlear ((COH)) has prompted Credit Suisse to downgrade to an Underperform rating from Neutral previously. The removal of a previous multiple premium sees the broker lower its price target for the stock as well.

With Citi initiating coverage on Miclyn Offshore ((MIO)) with a Buy rating and $2.15 price target overall ratings and the consensus target for the company have improved, while targets for Brambles have been adjusted slightly post a solid quarterly trading update.

One consequence of the industrial issues at Qantas is an increase to earnings estimates for Virgin Blue ((VBA)) as both BA-ML and JP Morgan expect earnings to receive a boost from the company having picked up additional traffic in recent months.

Better than expected interim guidance from Seven Group ((SVW)) has seen earnings forecasts lifted across the market, while signs of a recovery for Macmahon ((MAH)) have prompted Macquarie to lift its full year numbers.

JP Morgan now sees a better US market outlook for Aristocrat ((ALL)) and has adjusted its numbers accordingly, while Telecom New Zealand ((TEL)) has seen some minor changes to valuation models leading into structural separation.

The announcement of $50 million in losses related to the flooding in Thailand has led to brokers lowering earnings estimates for Insurance Australia ((IAG)), while commissioning delays have caused Deutsche Bank to lower forecasts for Lynas Corporation ((LYC)). A similar delay to first shipments from Karara have prompted cuts to earnings estimates and price targets for Gindalbie ((GBG)).

Weak interim guidance was enough for brokers to lower forecasts for Perpetual ((PPT)), while difficult trading conditions have seen Credit Suisse trim forecasts for Boral ((BLD)). Orica ((ORI)) has also seen earnings estimates lowered to reflect additional costs stemming from the forced shutdown of the Kooragang ammonia storage facility.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	COLLECTION HOUSE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
2	COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED	Sell	Buy	Macquarie
3	MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	UBS
4	QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
Downgrade
5	AUSTRALIAN PIPELINE TRUST	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
6	CSR LIMITED	Neutral	Neutral	Citi
7	DIVERSIFIED UTILITY AND ENERGY TRUSTS	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
8	SEEK LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	BA-Merrill Lynch
9	SP AUSNET	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
10	SP AUSNET	Buy	Neutral	UBS
11	WHITE ENERGY COMPANY LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	CPU	14.0%	57.0%	43.0%	7
2	BXB	63.0%	75.0%	12.0%	8
3	MYR	13.0%	25.0%	12.0%	8
4	MIO	67.0%	75.0%	8.0%	4

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	APA	63.0%	38.0%	- 25.0%	8
2	SEK	88.0%	75.0%	- 13.0%	8
3	COH	- 25.0%	- 38.0%	- 13.0%	8
4	MRM	80.0%	67.0%	- 13.0%	6
5	DUE	50.0%	38.0%	- 12.0%	8
6	TSE	50.0%	40.0%	- 10.0%	5
7	SGT	50.0%	43.0%	- 7.0%	7

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	CPU	8.526	9.277	8.81%	7
2	MIO	1.970	2.015	2.28%	4
3	MYR	2.509	2.563	2.15%	8
4	BXB	7.581	7.626	0.59%	8
5	APA	4.430	4.443	0.29%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	TSE	2.922	2.788	- 4.59%	5
2	MRM	3.500	3.433	- 1.91%	6
3	COH	55.315	54.840	- 0.86%	8
4	DUE	1.796	1.785	- 0.61%	8
5	SEK	7.309	7.265	- 0.60%	8

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	VBA	2.614	2.871	9.83%	7
2	SVW	78.100	81.900	4.87%	4
3	MAH	5.800	5.933	2.29%	3
4	ORI	195.563	199.613	2.07%	8
5	ALL	10.688	10.863	1.64%	8
6	MIO	21.072	21.377	1.45%	4
7	TEL	18.347	18.532	1.01%	8
8	EGP	20.538	20.725	0.91%	8
9	APA	19.163	19.288	0.65%	8
10	IAG	26.725	26.875	0.56%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	LYC	0.850	0.540	- 36.47%	4
2	GBG	1.157	0.771	- 33.36%	6
3	IGO	15.760	12.820	- 18.65%	5
4	DUE	11.169	9.569	- 14.33%	8
5	PPT	154.100	135.400	- 12.13%	7
6	OST	17.043	15.114	- 11.32%	7
7	CSR	17.525	16.225	- 7.42%	8
8	CPU	54.560	51.497	- 5.61%	7
9	PRU	23.600	22.517	- 4.59%	6
10	BLD	26.550	25.425	- 4.24%	8

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

The tide appears to have well and truly turned in favour of ratings downgrades on the Australian market, as over the past week brokers in the FNArena database have pushed through 18 cuts in ratings compared to just four upgrades. This brings total Buy ratings to 57.6%, down from 58.2% previously.

A resilient interim earnings result from Macquarie Bank ((MQG)) was enough for BA Merrill Lynch to upgrade to a Buy rating, the change also a reflection of what the broker sees as strong valuation support at current levels.

As BA-ML points out, if current funding sources prove sustainable the value available from annuity-style income alone is enough to justify most of the current market value of the bank. This implies upside when an improvement in market conditions boosts earnings in other divisions. Others in the market have adjusted forecasts and price target for Macquarie post its profit result.

QR National ((QRN)) was also upgraded, Deutsche Bank moving to a Buy rating from the potential for upside to volumes, which should translate into increased earnings. Further justifying the upgrade in rating was Deutsche's new numbers translate to an increase in price target.

BA-ML also upgraded Santos (STO)) to Buy during the week, this following a review of its model resulting in a revaluation of the group's assets. While the value of the GLNG assets were reduced, this has been offset by increases to the value of the Cooper gas assets.

Expected price tension in gas markets in the coming year should be a further positive and support BA-ML's upgrade. Price target has also been increased modestly. Credit Suisse went the other way, downgrading Santos to Neutral on the back of recent share price outperformance.

A restructuring of debt and a capital raising by Transpacific Industries ((TPI)) has seen both RBS Australia and Credit Suisse upgrade to Buy ratings from Hold previously. The improved balance sheet removes some headwinds in the view of RBS, while management will be able to focus on operational rather than financial issues and this should boost the company's financial performance according to Credit Suisse.

On the downgrades side, OneSteel's ((OST)) revision to earnings guidance on the back of lower iron ore prices saw brokers cut earnings forecasts and price targets significantly. Both Deutsche Bank and RBS Australia downgraded ratings to Sell and Hold respectively, reflecting concerns over debt covenants and ongoing tough market conditions.

While quarterly production for Aquila Resources ((AQA)) was solid, RBS Australia has still downgraded to a Sell rating, this reflecting the broker's concern over the company's ability to raise sufficient cash to meet its development ambitions. This implies a capital raising is a possibility in coming months.

A similarly disappointing production report from Kingsgate ((KCN)) saw both Deutsche and Citi downgrade the stock to Hold from Buy previously, with targets and earnings estimates cut accordingly. A disappointing quarterly from Paladin ((PDN)) was also enough for RBS to downgrade to Hold from Buy, with earnings and price target also reduced.

Australian Pipeline Trust ((APA)) has been downgraded on valuation grounds by Macquarie following recent share price gains, while valuation has seen Credit Suisse make the same shift to Hold from Buy on Australian Worldwide Exploration ((AWE)) while RBS Australia issued a similar downgrade for Consolidated Media ((CMJ)).

UBS also downgraded Mirvac ((MGR)) to a Hold following a review of sector valuations, while Citi resumed coverage on Spotless ((SPT)) with a downgrade to a Neutral rating as tough market conditions have caused the broker to lower earnings expectations. Price target was also reduced.

Ongoing increases to the N5 implant failure rate have Credit Suisse concerned enough about Cochlear ((COH)) to downgrade to an Underperform rating on the stock, with the broker also cutting its price target.

Ongoing tough market conditions are behind Deutsche Bank downgrading to Hold from Buy on CSR ((CSR)), the broker also lowering earnings estimates and price target leading into the company's interim profit result. James Hardie ((JHX)) was downgraded by both Credit Suisse and JP Morgan, in both cases the rating moving to Underperform from Neutral.

Harvey Norman ((HVN)) copped two ratings downgrades to Neutral from Outperform post a 1Q sales result that showed the company has had to sacrifice margins to defend market share. Brokers across the market also lowered earnings estimates and price targets for the stock on the back of the report.

For Iron Road ((IRD)) it was a review of magnetite projects and changes to foreign exchange assumptions that saw RBS Australia downgrade to a Hold rating from Buy, the broker's price target also being reduced.

Tatts ((TTS)), GPT ((GPT)) and Blackmores ((BKL)) were also downgraded during the week, with valuation the key factor in the decisions of brokers to lower ratings for the three stocks, while tough ad market conditions saw forecasts, price target and rating for Ten Network ((TEN)) lowered by RBS.

Earnings and price targets for AMP ((AMP)) were trimmed to reflect weak fund flows in the September quarter, while construction delays have pushed out earnings expectations for Lynas ((LYC)) and this has resulted in Deutsche Bank also trimming its price target for the stock.

A mixed quarterly result has seen earnings estimates and price targets revised for Independence Group ((IGO)), while earnings expectations for Qantas ((QAN)) have come down to account for the impact of the grounding of the group's fleet and the industrial action of recent weeks.

Slightly lower than expected production for OceanaGold ((OGC)) has seen a trimming of earnings estimates and price targets, while it has been a similar story for earnings expectations for Horizon Oil ((HZN)) post its quarterly.

On a more positive note, earnings expectations for Campbell Brothers ((CPB)) have been lifted slightly following two bolt-on acquisitions by the company, while National Australia Bank's ((NAB)) result was enough to see minor increases to earnings estimates. Forecasts for Miclyn Offshore ((MIO)) have also moved higher as the company is to acquire the balance of Samson Marine it doesn't already own.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup Suisse,Deutsche<br>Bank,JP<br>Morgan,Macquarie,RBS<br>Australia,UBS&b0=125,119,129,104,88,144,193,159&h0=73,92,77,118,88,94,106,77&s0=39,15,14,6,26,22,7,13" style="border-bottom: #000000 1px solid; border-left: #000000 1px solid; border-top: #000000 1px solid; border-right: #000000 1px solid" />

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	BA-Merrill Lynch
2	QR NATIONAL	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
3	SANTOS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	BA-Merrill Lynch
4	Transpacific Industries Group Ltd	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
Downgrade
5	AQUILA RESOURCES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	RBS Australia
6	AUSTRALIAN PIPELINE TRUST	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
7	AUSTRALIAN WORLDWIDE EXPLORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
8	COCHLEAR LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
9	CONSOLIDATED MEDIA HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
10	CSR LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
11	HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
12	HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
13	IRON ROAD LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
14	JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
15	KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
16	KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
17	MIRVAC GROUP	Buy	Neutral	UBS
18	ONESTEEL LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
19	ONESTEEL LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Deutsche Bank
20	PALADIN ENERGY LTD	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
21	SANTOS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
22	SPOTLESS GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	TPI	17.0%	50.0%	33.0%	6
2	MQG	43.0%	57.0%	14.0%	7
3	AMP	75.0%	88.0%	13.0%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	KCN	60.0%	20.0%	- 40.0%	5
2	BKL	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	3
3	OST	86.0%	57.0%	- 29.0%	7
4	HVN	50.0%	25.0%	- 25.0%	8
5	TTS	57.0%	38.0%	- 19.0%	8
6	GPT	50.0%	33.0%	- 17.0%	6
7	AWE	86.0%	71.0%	- 15.0%	7
8	MGR	86.0%	71.0%	- 15.0%	7
9	SIP	- 14.0%	- 29.0%	- 15.0%	7
10	CMJ	57.0%	43.0%	- 14.0%	7

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	TPI	0.842	0.872	3.56%	6
2	MQG	30.611	30.999	1.27%	7
3	CWN	10.263	10.350	0.85%	8
4	SIP	0.583	0.587	0.69%	7
5	MGR	1.369	1.371	0.15%	7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	OST	2.104	1.619	- 23.05%	7
2	HVN	2.558	2.321	- 9.27%	8
3	KCN	9.444	8.804	- 6.78%	5
4	PDN	2.456	2.333	- 5.01%	7
5	TEN	1.090	1.036	- 4.95%	8
6	AMP	5.244	5.141	- 1.96%	8
7	TTS	2.410	2.363	- 1.95%	8
8	NWS	18.720	18.483	- 1.27%	7
9	COH	55.315	54.840	- 0.86%	8
10	CSR	2.805	2.798	- 0.25%	8

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	IMD	20.467	22.040	7.69%	3
2	AIX	22.300	23.033	3.29%	6
3	DMP	35.250	36.317	3.03%	6
4	FLT	185.338	188.838	1.89%	8
5	NAB	265.138	267.775	0.99%	8
6	MIO	20.904	21.070	0.79%	3
7	NWS	130.886	131.913	0.78%	7
8	CPB	282.029	283.886	0.66%	7
9	CTX	115.817	116.483	0.58%	6
10	BPT	4.040	4.060	0.50%	5

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	PDN	2.074	- 1.623	- 178.25%	7
2	LYC	4.475	0.850	- 81.01%	3
3	IGO	24.334	12.820	- 47.32%	5
4	AQP	31.065	16.798	- 45.93%	5
5	OST	24.343	15.114	- 37.91%	7
6	QAN	20.513	15.075	- 26.51%	8
7	AWE	8.857	6.871	- 22.42%	7
8	OGC	18.673	15.449	- 17.27%	3
9	HZN	2.720	2.425	- 10.85%	4
10	TEN	7.963	7.204	- 9.53%	8

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

For the second week in a row downgrades from the eight brokers in the FNArena database have outnumbered upgrades, this week by a score of 12 to three. This brings total Buy recommendations to 58.7%, down from last week's 59.3%.

Among the few receiving an upgrade this week were Cardno ((CDD)), Macquarie lifting its rating to Outperform from Neutral on the back of the company announcing the acquisition of TEC in the US. The new assets are seen as a good fit with existing operations and should boost earnings.

Macquarie also upgraded fund manager Henderson Group ((HGG)) to Neutral from Underperform on valuation grounds. Looking through short-term market headwinds suggest the stock is attractive even post some cuts to earnings estimates, while a 6% dividend yield is also viewed positively by the broker.

Toll Holdings ((TOL)) was also upgraded by Macquarie to Neutral from Underperform, this change also reflecting an improved valuation for the stock at current levels. A review of its model saw Macquarie make minor changes to earnings forecasts and price target.

On the resources side, an initiation of coverage by UBS with a Buy rating on Atlas Iron ((AGO)) has lifted overall ratings for the stock, while bringing about a minor reduction in consensus price target given UBS set a lower target than others in the FNArena database.

Among the companies where ratings were downgraded was Super Retail Group ((SUL)), Citi, BA Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse all downgrading to Neutral ratings from Buy previously on the back of the purchase of the Rebel Sport assets.

The general view is that the assets being acquired are not top quality and a full price is being paid, while the magnitude of the deal also changes Super Retail's risk profile going forward. Price targets have thus been reduced on the back of the acquisition, while earnings estimates have been adjusted lower to reflect earnings dilution from a share issue to pay for part of the purchase.

While a soft retail environment won't help Super Cheap succeed with the Rebel Sport purchase, it has also seen Deutsche Bank downgrade to a Hold rating on Carsales.com ((CRZ)), the broker also lowering earnings estimates as well as its price target.

It is a similar story for the likes of Computershare ((CPU)) with RBS downgrading to a Hold rating on valuation grounds given tough operating conditions, Credit Suisse downgrading on Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) to an Underperform rating and Macquarie downgrading to a Neutral rating on Ten Network ((TEN)) - all on the same basis.

Tough conditions saw Fletcher Building ((FBU)) lower earnings guidance and brokers responded by cutting forecasts and price targets accordingly. Only Macquarie saw fit to downgrade to a Neutral rating from Outperform, the broker arguing the tough environment makes outperformance for the shares unlikely in the shorter-term.

Oz Minerals ((OZL)) also copped a downgrade to a Neutral rating from Credit Suisse post a quarterly production report that disappointed on the gold side, while Deutsche Bank downgraded Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) to Hold on the back of an unexpected rights issue. Rio Tinto ((RIO)) is underwriting the capital raising and is likely to boost its equity ownership past 80% as a result.

Changes in price targets were largely tied to changes in earnings estimates for the industrial plays such as Cardno and Toll Holdings, while for resources stocks such as ERA, Oz Minerals and PanAust ((PNA)) the changes tended to reflect either production reports falling short of expectations or adjustments to commodity price assumptions by brokers.

The consensus target for Jetset Travelworld ((JET)) has fallen as UBS's initiation added a lower target than those already in the market.

Changes to earnings forecasts for Macquarie Airports ((MAP)) were modest following September traffic data, while a better performance on costs contributed to increases to earnings forecasts for Fortescue Metals ((FMG)).

Estimates for Caltex ((CTX)) moved slightly higher as broker models were updated for the latest refiner margins, while better volumes and cost performance saw estimates lifted for mineral sands play Iluka ((ILU)).

Cochlear (COH)) continues to struggle from an earnings perspective given uncertainty with respect to total costs relating to its hearing implant recall, while a slower than expected ramp-up of some operations has led to Macquarie trimming estimates for Beach Energy ((BPT)).

For Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)) full year earnings were a little lower than expected and so estimates have been trimmed, the changes also impacting on price targets for brokers in the database. BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and Customers ((CUS)) also experienced minor changes to earnings estimates over the week.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	CARDNO LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
2	MINCOR RESOURCES NL	Sell	Neutral	UBS
3	SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	JP Morgan
4	TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	Macquarie
Downgrade
5	CARSALES.COM LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
6	COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
7	CSG LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
8	IRESS MARKET TECHNOLOGY LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
9	OZ MINERALS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
10	OZ MINERALS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
11	PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
12	SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
13	SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	BA-Merrill Lynch
14	SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
15	TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
16	TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
17	WESFARMERS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
18	WESTERN AREAS NL	Buy	Neutral	UBS

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	CDD	33.0%	67.0%	34.0%	3
2	TOL	25.0%	38.0%	13.0%	8
3	SGT	40.0%	50.0%	10.0%	6
4	TTS	50.0%	57.0%	7.0%	7
5	AGO	71.0%	75.0%	4.0%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	SUL	100.0%	33.0%	- 67.0%	6
2	OZL	88.0%	63.0%	- 25.0%	8
3	CRZ	100.0%	83.0%	- 17.0%	6
4	JET	67.0%	50.0%	- 17.0%	4
5	CPU	29.0%	14.0%	- 15.0%	7
6	TWE	- 14.0%	- 29.0%	- 15.0%	7
7	WES	63.0%	50.0%	- 13.0%	8
8	TEN	50.0%	38.0%	- 12.0%	8
9	SVW	60.0%	50.0%	- 10.0%	4
10	FGL	- 13.0%	- 14.0%	- 1.0%	7

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	TWE	3.376	3.390	0.41%	7
2	TOL	5.254	5.275	0.40%	8
3	CDD	6.190	6.203	0.21%	3
4	SVW	9.314	9.318	0.04%	4
5	TTS	2.409	2.410	0.04%	7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	JET	1.050	0.988	- 5.90%	4
2	SUL	7.297	6.996	- 4.12%	6
3	OZL	13.641	13.169	- 3.46%	8
4	TEN	1.105	1.090	- 1.36%	8
5	WES	33.108	32.941	- 0.50%	8
6	CRZ	5.477	5.452	- 0.46%	6
7	CPU	8.550	8.526	- 0.28%	7

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	PDN	1.753	2.075	18.37%	7
2	MAP	6.187	7.259	17.33%	6
3	GBG	1.014	1.157	14.10%	6
4	STO	56.425	61.125	8.33%	8
5	WPL	204.950	216.917	5.84%	8
6	FMG	66.736	70.301	5.34%	8
7	GNM	6.600	6.933	5.05%	3
8	GCL	47.800	50.200	5.02%	5
9	NCM	217.229	222.250	2.31%	8
10	AWC	5.777	5.897	2.08%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	PAN	16.450	11.475	- 30.24%	4
2	OZL	113.513	95.200	- 16.13%	8
3	COH	255.638	220.275	- 13.83%	8
4	MQA	9.683	8.433	- 12.91%	6
5	WSA	53.667	48.700	- 9.26%	6
6	PRU	25.433	23.600	- 7.21%	6
7	GWA	19.583	18.250	- 6.81%	6
8	BHP	446.994	426.732	- 4.53%	8
9	CUS	12.740	12.200	- 4.24%	5
10	GUD	78.100	74.983	- 3.99%	6

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

In a change from the recent pattern, the last week has seen broker downgrades outnumber upgrades by a score of seven to three based on recommendations by the eight brokers in the FNArena database. This brings total Buy ratings to 59.3%, down slightly from 59.5% last week.

Fund manager Henderson Group ((HGG)) enjoyed one of the upgrades courtesy of Macquarie, the broker moving to Neutral from Underperform to reflect improved value following recent share price weakness. This has offset ongoing weakness in fund flows thanks to still tough equity market conditions. Macquarie is also attracted to the yield of 6%.

Macquarie also upgraded Tabcorp ((TAH)) to Neutral from Underperform following a trading update that supports the view the stock offers value around current levels. A move to a more positive rating is not justified in the broker's view given overhanging uncertainty of compensation relating to claims in the Victorian market. Earnings estimates have been trimmed as part of the review.

Among resource stocks Credit Suisse has upgraded to an Outperform rating on Western Areas ((WSA)) from Neutral, this due to revisions to earnings and price target on the back of changes to nickel price expectations.

Credit Suisse has also upgraded CSL to Outperform from Neutral following changes to foreign exchange assumptions. Again, there have been related changes to earnings forecasts and price target. Charter Hall Office ((CQO)) has been upgraded by UBS to Buy from Neutral, as while a consortium bidding for the stock has lifted its offer there remains scope for a revised offer closer to net tangible asset backing.

On the downgrade side, Credit Suisse has lowered its rating on Navitas ((NVT)) to Neutral from Outperform to reflect a full valuation. While the Knight Review offered some positives the broker notes earnings are unlikely to be impacted prior to FY13. This suggests a full short-term valuation.

A rights issue announced by Energy Resources of Australia ((ERA)) has prompted Deutsche Bank to downgrade the stock to Hold from Buy. Not only was the issue a surprise but Deutsche notes even if the key Ranger 3 Deeps project goes ahead, it will be one of the world's most expensive uranium mines.

Deutsche has sliced its price target as well on the news, while other brokers in the market similarly lowered both targets and earnings forecasts to reflect the dilution to earnings per share from the capital raising.

A downgrade to earnings guidance by Fletcher Building ((FBU)) given ongoing difficult operating conditions has seen brokers lower earnings forecasts and price targets. Macquarie has gone a step further, downgrading to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds, as any recovery in earnings appears set to take some time.

James Hardie ((JHX)) is another building materials group to suffer a downgrade, JP Morgan moving to an Underweight rating from Neutral on the back of lower earnings forecasts. Price target also comes down as the broker sees little chance of strong performance relative to the sector in the current market.

Brokers ceasing coverage have also been a feature this week, with both Macquarie and JP Morgan stopping coverage on ConnectEast ((CEU)) given shareholder approval of a takeover offer. Macquarie has also dropped coverage on Minara ((MRE)).

With respect to earnings, an increase to long-term iron ore price assumptions by Credit Suisse has had a positive impact on expectations for Gindalbie ((GBG)). Forecasts for Paladin ((PDN)) have been adjusted to reflect an equity issue that has also meant changes in price targets, while changes to gold price assumptions have impacted on earnings estimates for Newcrest ((NCM)).

BA Merrill Lynch rolled forward its model for Caltex ((CTX)) and this has prompted some increases in estimates, while higher margin assumptions saw Citi also lift its numbers for the stock. Virgin Blue ((VBA)) also saw an upgrade to forecasts from Macquarie as the company is seen as a beneficiary of the issues at Qantas ((QAN)).

Forecasts for Alumina ((AWC)) have come down slightly thanks to a lower than expected 3Q earnings result from Alcoa, while a slower project ramp up has contributed to Macquarie trimming its numbers for Beach ((BPT)).

For Perpetual ((PPT)), a move to outsource some back office functions will impact on earnings in the medium-term, prompting JP Morgan to lower its forecasts and price target. Others have similarly adjusted estimates to reflect weak market conditions.

Conditions also remain tough for Oakton ((OKN)) and brokers have reacted to AGM commentary by trimming earnings estimates, which has also brought about a trimming in price targets.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	HENDERSON GROUP PLC.	Sell	Neutral	Macquarie
2	TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Neutral	Macquarie
3	WESTERN AREAS NL	Neutral	Buy	Credit Suisse
Downgrade
4	ENERGY RESOURCES OF AUSTRALIA	Neutral	Sell	UBS
5	FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
6	JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.	Neutral	Sell	JP Morgan
7	NAVITAS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	HGG	60.0%	80.0%	20.0%	5
2	WSA	33.0%	50.0%	17.0%	6
3	CQO	29.0%	43.0%	14.0%	7
4	PNA	75.0%	88.0%	13.0%	8
5	CSL	50.0%	63.0%	13.0%	8
6	TAH	13.0%	25.0%	12.0%	8
7	CPA	- 17.0%	- 14.0%	3.0%	7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	GPT	67.0%	50.0%	- 17.0%	6
2	CER	50.0%	33.0%	- 17.0%	3
3	NVT	43.0%	29.0%	- 14.0%	7
4	CQR	43.0%	29.0%	- 14.0%	7
5	ERA	- 25.0%	- 38.0%	- 13.0%	8
6	FBU	50.0%	38.0%	- 12.0%	8
7	JHX	50.0%	38.0%	- 12.0%	8
8	MRE	- 25.0%	- 33.0%	- 8.0%	3
9	CAB	67.0%	60.0%	- 7.0%	5
10	CEU	- 17.0%	- 20.0%	- 3.0%	5

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	CQO	3.426	3.568	4.14%	7
2	WSA	6.325	6.400	1.19%	6
3	CSL	33.249	33.499	0.75%	8
4	TAH	3.356	3.375	0.57%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	ERA	4.650	3.795	- 18.39%	8
2	PNA	4.591	4.348	- 5.29%	8
3	CAB	5.627	5.426	- 3.57%	5
4	HGG	2.624	2.574	- 1.91%	5

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	GBG	0.614	1.014	65.15%	6
2	OGC	15.388	18.697	21.50%	3
3	PDN	1.672	1.753	4.84%	7
4	NCM	208.971	217.229	3.95%	8
5	PRU	24.600	25.433	3.39%	6
6	CTX	110.900	113.550	2.39%	6
7	WHC	37.950	38.750	2.11%	5
8	TCL	12.157	12.400	2.00%	7
9	AIZ	10.326	10.524	1.92%	4
10	VBA	2.571	2.614	1.67%	7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	ROC	0.259	- 0.169	- 165.25%	4
2	MRE	5.400	3.500	- 35.19%	3
3	CER	4.250	3.633	- 14.52%	3
4	AWC	6.832	6.009	- 12.05%	8
5	BPT	5.280	4.780	- 9.47%	5
6	FBU	49.214	46.293	- 5.94%	8
7	PPT	169.614	160.486	- 5.38%	7
8	PAN	17.325	16.450	- 5.05%	4
9	OKN	20.300	19.420	- 4.33%	5
10	IGO	25.294	24.334	- 3.80%	5

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

The past week has been another one where ratings upgrades have easily outnumbered downgrades, the eight brokers in the FNArena database lifting recommendations on 18 stocks and cutting ratings for just nine companies. Total Buy ratings now stand at 58.7%, up from 58.2% last week.

Sigma Pharmaceuticals ((SIP)) was among those being upgraded during the week, this on the back of a better than expected interim earnings result. Nufarm ((NUF)) has lifted guidance leading into this month's full year result and this prompted one upgrade in rating.

Sector reviews have generated upgrades for Oil Search ((OSH)) , Newcrest ((NCM)) and Oz Minerals among the resource plays, while beneficiaries among the industrials have been Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) and Toll Holdings ((TOL)).

Among those companies receiving downgrades to ratings were Ansell ((ANN)) as part of a healthcare sector review and Qantas ((QAN)) on the back of a review of the transport sector. Envestra ((ENV)) also saw its overall rating drop following a valuation downgrade and an initiation of coverage.

The better than expected result from Sigma also translated into price target increases, while sector reviews also generated higher targets for Newcrest, Ramsay, Toll, Oil Search and Panoramic Resources ((PAN)).

Targets have fallen for Aquila (AQA)), Mincor Resources ((MCR)), Independence Group ((IGO)) and Western Areas ((WSA)) following the sector reviews, while targets for CSL ((CSL)), Qantas and Nufarm also fell post reviews.

Sigma was one of the leaders in terms of increases to earnings forecasts, while better than expected results from Perseus Mining ((PRU)) also saw an increase to estimates for the coming year. A review of the outlook for DUET Group ((DUE)) generated an increase in forecasts for the company, while a tour of Star City's upgraded facilities has produced some increases to numbers for Echo Entertainment ((EGP)).

Higher retrievals expectations result in a lift in forecasts for Graincorp ((GNC)), while the likes of Santos, Newcrest and Oz Minerals enjoyed increases to forecasts post commodity price and sector reviews.

Not all resource stocks were beneficiaries as forecasts for Aquila, Mincor ((MCR)), Gindalbie ((GBG)), Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE)) and OneSteel ((OT)) have been cut over the past week. A deterioration in market conditions led to cuts in estimates for Macquarie Group ((MQG)), while forecasts were also lowered for Ten Network ((TEN)) and Woolworths ((WOW)).

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	SIP	- 57.0%	- 14.0%	43.0%	7
2	AQA	- 50.0%	- 25.0%	25.0%	4
3	MCR	- 50.0%	- 33.0%	17.0%	3
4	WSA	17.0%	33.0%	16.0%	6
5	NUF	25.0%	38.0%	13.0%	8
6	OSH	75.0%	88.0%	13.0%	8
7	RHC	13.0%	25.0%	12.0%	8
8	NCM	63.0%	75.0%	12.0%	8
9	OZL	38.0%	50.0%	12.0%	8
10	TOL	13.0%	25.0%	12.0%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	ANN	57.0%	43.0%	- 14.0%	7
2	QAN	88.0%	75.0%	- 13.0%	8
3	ENV	20.0%	17.0%	- 3.0%	6

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	SIP	0.420	0.573	36.43%	7
2	NCM	44.626	45.376	1.68%	8
3	RHC	18.593	18.793	1.08%	8
4	TOL	5.199	5.254	1.06%	8
5	PAN	2.333	2.338	0.21%	4
6	OSH	8.440	8.448	0.09%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	AQA	8.470	7.720	- 8.85%	4
2	MCR	1.085	1.017	- 6.27%	3
3	QAN	2.468	2.349	- 4.82%	8
4	NUF	4.975	4.819	- 3.14%	8
5	IGO	6.603	6.410	- 2.92%	4
6	ANN	14.504	14.326	- 1.23%	7
7	WSA	6.457	6.430	- 0.42%	6
8	CSL	33.330	33.305	- 0.08%	8

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	ROC	0.020	0.140	600.00%	4
2	SIP	3.029	4.286	41.50%	7
3	PRU	21.600	24.600	13.89%	6
4	NCM	189.063	204.063	7.93%	8
5	BPT	5.020	5.280	5.18%	5
6	DUE	10.844	11.169	3.00%	8
7	EGP	20.763	21.038	1.32%	8
8	STO	56.313	56.913	1.07%	8
9	GNC	80.447	81.130	0.85%	6
10	OZL	116.375	117.250	0.75%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	AQA	5.900	3.075	- 47.88%	4
2	MCR	16.400	9.000	- 45.12%	3
3	GBG	0.786	0.600	- 23.66%	6
4	MQG	282.629	265.886	- 5.92%	7
5	TEN	8.475	8.350	- 1.47%	8
6	WOW	182.250	180.600	- 0.91%	8
7	SAI	30.300	30.038	- 0.86%	8
8	AWE	8.729	8.671	- 0.66%	7
9	OST	24.771	24.629	- 0.57%	7
10	CTX	111.167	110.567	- 0.54%	6

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

In the past week the FNArena database has seen 18 upgrades and 18 downgrades to recommendations by the eight brokers covered in the database, the result being the total proportion of Buy recommendations ended the week relatively flat at 53.7%. (There are other factors impacting on these numbers such as brokers temporarily going "no rating" in case of a take-over and initiations of coverage on new stocks).

On the buy side, upgrades to ratings were enjoyed by Woolworths ((WOW)), Independence Group ((IGO)), Australand ((ALZ)), Premier Investments ((PMV)) and Gindalbie ((GBG)), with improved valuation the primary factor underpinning the changes. For Premier there was also an overall favourable response to news of a strategic review designed to generate improved earnings performance.

Downgrades were experienced by ConnectEast ((CEU)), Aston Resources ((AZT)) and PanAust ((PNA)) on valuation grounds. Alesco ((ALS)) also saw a rating downgrade post its full year earnings result, this on evidence of better value elsewhere among stocks exposed to the property and building sector.

With respect to consensus price targets, ConnectEast saw an increase as brokers adjusted targets in line with a bid for the company, while the likes of Regis Resources ((RRL)), Campbell Brothers ((CPB)) and Mount Gibson also saw targets raised. The Campbell Brothers increase followed an increase in interim earnings guidance from management, which also saw earnings estimates revised higher.

On the other side of the ledger, targets for Paladin ((PDN)) were cut following a poor June quarter production result, while the strategic review announcement from Premier also saw some brokers adjust earnings estimates and price targets lower.

Targets for Austar ((AUN)) were lowered when the proposed takeover by Foxtel was brought into question by the ACCC announcing it had some issues with the proposal, while retail stocks such as Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Myer ((MYR)) continue to see brokers fine tune their expectations given ongoing tough retail trading conditions.

Gindalbie ((GBG)) was a beneficiary of increased iron ore price estimates that have seen earnings forecasts for the company increase, as was Aquila Resources ((AQA)), but to a lesser extent. Forecasts for Virgin Blue ((VBA)) and TPG Telecom ((TPM)) were also increased as brokers adjusted models for a trading update from the former and an acquisition by the latter.

With production expectations for Paladin being revised lower so too have been earnings forecasts, while higher cash costs have seen a trimming of estimates for PanAust. Alesco's earnings forecasts have been adjusted to reflect full year results and the still tough market for the company, while earnings for Australian Worldwide Exploration ((AWE)) were lowered after the company revised down reserves at the Tui oil field.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	WOW	38.0%	63.0%	25.0%	8
2	IGO	25.0%	50.0%	25.0%	4
3	CNA	60.0%	80.0%	20.0%	5
4	ALZ	33.0%	50.0%	17.0%	6
5	PMV	33.0%	50.0%	17.0%	6
6	PPC	83.0%	100.0%	17.0%	6
7	GBG	83.0%	100.0%	17.0%	6
8	NWS	33.0%	50.0%	17.0%	6
9	CHC	67.0%	83.0%	16.0%	6
10	CPB	17.0%	33.0%	16.0%	6

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	CEU	33.0%	- 17.0%	- 50.0%	6
2	PNA	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	6
3	NHC	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	3
4	PAN	100.0%	67.0%	- 33.0%	3
5	AZT	100.0%	75.0%	- 25.0%	4
6	ALS	100.0%	80.0%	- 20.0%	5
7	MAP	67.0%	50.0%	- 17.0%	6
8	RRL	50.0%	33.0%	- 17.0%	3
9	PRT	33.0%	17.0%	- 16.0%	6
10	WHC	33.0%	17.0%	- 16.0%	6

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	CEU	0.480	0.538	12.08%	6
2	RRL	2.560	2.850	11.33%	3
3	CPB	47.907	49.355	3.02%	6
4	MGX	2.318	2.374	2.42%	8
5	WHC	6.683	6.842	2.38%	6
6	AZT	11.530	11.780	2.17%	4
7	ANN	14.271	14.573	2.12%	7
8	AGO	4.193	4.279	2.05%	7
9	VBA	0.394	0.400	1.52%	7
10	ILU	19.828	20.088	1.31%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	PDN	4.023	3.193	- 20.63%	7
2	PMV	6.433	5.947	- 7.55%	6
3	AUN	1.415	1.318	- 6.86%	8
4	MYR	3.210	3.054	- 4.86%	8
5	HVN	3.234	3.084	- 4.64%	8
6	PAN	2.707	2.600	- 3.95%	3
7	ALS	3.480	3.350	- 3.74%	5
8	WBC	25.170	24.233	- 3.72%	8
9	WES	35.475	34.171	- 3.68%	8
10	ALZ	3.090	2.985	- 3.40%	6

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	GBG	0.071	0.786	1007.04%	6
2	VBA	2.686	2.957	10.09%	7
3	TPM	9.300	10.225	9.95%	4
4	AQA	7.825	8.325	6.39%	4
5	CPB	264.283	278.200	5.27%	6
6	SIP	2.886	3.029	4.95%	7
7	AIZ	10.440	10.703	2.52%	4
8	HZN	2.776	2.841	2.34%	4
9	OSH	13.828	14.132	2.20%	8
10	HGG	17.745	18.026	1.58%	5

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	PDN	9.145	5.618	- 38.57%	7
2	PMV	39.050	32.365	- 17.12%	6
3	PAN	28.350	25.600	- 9.70%	3
4	ALS	34.133	31.133	- 8.79%	5
5	MGX	48.888	45.261	- 7.42%	8
6	AWE	11.386	10.586	- 7.03%	7
7	NCM	208.788	194.438	- 6.87%	8
8	PNA	38.439	35.977	- 6.40%	6
9	MAP	8.659	8.116	- 6.27%	6
10	WHC	41.550	39.017	- 6.10%	6

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Big Boost For Asciano

- Asciano signs new container ports contract
- Deal to boost earnings and market share
- Brokers continue to see value at current levels

By Chris Shaw

While it had been widely expected in the industry, the container ports contract Asciano ((AIO)) announced yesterday with Maersk was still well received by brokers covering the company.

The contract will add 10% to Patrick Container Ports volumes in FY12, while UBS expects it will also lift market share for the group back to around 48% next year compared to 44% this year. This is an acceleration in terms of market share improvement, as JP Morgan had previously expected to would take around three years for Asciano to deliver such market share growth.

The new volumes from the Maersk contract should add $42-$45 million in container terminal revenue in FY12 on JP Morgan's numbers, which should translate to $13-$15 million in EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) terms.

There is some upside risk to this number, JP Morgan noting the deal could also generate some additional logistics revenue from higher volumes. This is presently not factored into earnings estimates. JP Morgan is forecasting earnings per share (EPS) for Asciano of 6.2c this year and 9.4c in FY12.

Consensus EPS estimates according to the FNArena database stand at 7.0c and 10.1c respectively. This follows modest changes to forecasts to factor in the new contract.

The other big plus of the deal in UBS's view is it locks up around 15% of industry volume until 2016. This is important, as Asciano competitor Hutchison plans to enter the Sydney and Brisbane markets in 2013, so the Maersk deal helps protect Asciano's position.

In the view of BA Merrill Lynch, the signing of the contract with Maersk suggests Asciano is close to agreeing to terms for a new Enterprise Bargaining Agreement (EBA) with Ports workers. As BA-ML notes, Maersk would be unlikely to sign a deal without confidence that the Patrick division had some certainty with respect to its cost base going forward.

BA-ML notes the EBA is likely to deliver a 5.75% annual wage rise over three years, with 1% of this linked to productivity. Factoring in some productivity improvements could mean the actual nominal rate of increase is around 3-4%.

On news of the contract, brokers continue to take a positive view towards Asciano, the FNArena database showing the stock scores a perfect 8-for-8 Buy ratings. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are not part of the database but also rate Asciano as Buy, the latter within an In-Line view on the Australian infrastructure sector.

For RBS Australia the Buy rating is a valuation call, as on the broker's numbers Asciano is trading on an EBITDA multiple of around eight times in FY12. This is below peer multiples of around 10.3 times, which would imply a share price for Asciano of $1.97.

Asciano also looks better relative value than QR National ((QRN)) at current levels according to RBS, especially given potential catalysts such as the outcome of a current strategic review and ongoing coal rail contract signings.

Another attraction for UBS is certainty of earnings, as as much as 90% of forecast earnings growth in FY12 and 60% in FY13 is effectively locked in and is not reliant on industry volume growth. BA-ML also notes there continues to be potential for cost reductions, estimating automation in the port operations could save $25 per box lift. This could add as much as $50 million in EBITDA terms.

Shares in Asciano today are unchanged as at 12.00pm, with a last sale price of $1.695. Over the past year Asciano has traded in a range of $1.475 to $1.795, the current share price implying upside to the consensus price target according to FNArena's database of around 18%.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.