METRO MINING LIMITED (MMI)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

17/10/2025

1

Buy

$0.17

132.88%

Metro Mining Limited posted a strong September quarter operational performance, Shaw and Partners highlights, setting multiple production and shipping records.

As expected by the broker, 2,246kt of bauxite was shipped, a new quarterly record, supporting confidence in its 7.5Mt FY26 shipping forecast.

Achieved price was $48.6/wmt, -$10 lower than forecast, due to deliveries into legacy low-priced contracts with Xinfa Group (35% of shipments). Operating cash flow of $21m was impacted by shipment timing and a temporary $27.2m receivable build.

FY25 production guidance was lowered to 6.2-6.6Mt from 6.5-7.0Mt, but this was expected. The broker had downgraded its forecast to 6.3Mt in anticipation, but now sees some possibility of the lower end of previous guidance being achieved.

FY25 EBITDA forecast downgraded -27% on lower achieved bauxite price, but FY26 maintained.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 17c.

FORECAST
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.50 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.

22/10/2025

1

Buy

$0.10

36.99%

Petra Capital maintains its Buy rating and leaves its price target at $0.10 (unchanged) after operational issues drove a 2025 guidance cut from Metro Mining to 6.2–6.6Mt.

Sep Q’25 output was 2.25Mt (+6% y/y), while net operating cash flow of $20.9m was -51% versus the broker’s estimate on weaker pricing as FOB netback averaged $48.6/wmt under low-priced legacy contracts.

Petra expects the remaining circa 700kt of legacy tonnes to ship this quarter, with full exposure to spot from 2026; Dec Q’25 FOB netback is modelled at $49.3/t, with $31.0m cash and $74.5m debt at quarter-end.

Forecasts have been reduced.

FORECAST
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.40 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.