METRO MINING LIMITED (MMI)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

10/12/2025

1

Buy

$0.15

111.27%

Metro Mining posted a November shipping record of 783k wmt of bauxite, taking year-to-date shipments to 5.6m wmt and keeping it on track to meet 6.2-6.6m wmt guidance, Shaw and Partners highlights.

The broker notes the company also set a vessel-loading record, filling 178kt onto the Zhi NV Star in 5.6 days.

Despite strong FY25 records, Metro missed early-year volume expectations, so the broker conservatively downgraded its FY26 forecast to 6.8Mt and FY27 to 7.0Mt, from 7.5Mt each.

The broker also trimmed its price forecast for bauxite, resulting in a -14% cut to FY25 EBITDA forecast and a -32% downgrade to FY26.

Buy retained. Target cut to 15c from 17c, but the broker still calls the company its top pick.

FORECAST
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.

17/10/2025

1

Buy

$0.10

40.85%

Petra Capital maintains its Buy rating and leaves its price target at $0.10 (unchanged) after operational issues drove a 2025 guidance cut from Metro Mining to 6.2–6.6Mt.

Sep Q’25 output was 2.25Mt (+6% y/y), while net operating cash flow of $20.9m was -51% versus the broker’s estimate on weaker pricing as FOB netback averaged $48.6/wmt under low-priced legacy contracts.

Petra expects the remaining circa 700kt of legacy tonnes to ship this quarter, with full exposure to spot from 2026; Dec Q’25 FOB netback is modelled at $49.3/t, with $31.0m cash and $74.5m debt at quarter-end.

Forecasts have been reduced.

FORECAST
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.40 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.