METRO MINING LIMITED (MMI)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

13/10/2026

1

Buy

$1.75

110.84%

Metro Mining's shipments in September were weaker than Ord Minnett expected with the weakness attributed to a collapse in a sandbank that reduced channel water depth.

The issues appear operational rather than structural yet, to date, operations have not shown resilience to extraneous events, the broker notes.

Guidance for 2026 of 6.6mt-7.1mt is under review and Ord Minnett suspects it is "out of reach". Forecasts are reduced to 6.3mt in a likely range of 6.2mt-6.4mt.

Buy rating with the target reduced to $1.75 from $2.50.

FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.10 cents.
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.

14/10/2026

1

Buy

$2.60

213.25%

Shaw and Partners maintains a Buy rating for Metro Mining while lowering its price target to $2.60 from $3.00 following September bauxite shipments of 659kt, which fell short of expectations due to constrained barge capacity from a channel collapse and flu-related staffing shortages.

2026 shipment forecasts are trimmed to 6.2Mt from 6.6Mt, placing total volume below management guidance and driving a -26% reduction in 2026 EBITDA estimates to $40m.

Operational disruptions are treated as short-term headwinds rather than a fundamental flaw in the investment thesis, with recent share price weakness framed as a compelling buying opportunity.

Shaw emphasises that Metro Mining remains profitable, generates solid free cash flow, and maintains a robust balance sheet projected to close the year with a $60m to $70m cash balance.

Operational catalysts include potential shipment acceleration in November, extended dry season weather into January, and prospective bauxite export restrictions from Guinea.

FORECAST
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents.