MAC COPPER LIMITED (MAC)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

12/05/2025

1

Initiation of coverage with Buy

$21.00

13.39%

UBS has initiated coverage of MAC Copper with a Buy rating and target price of $21.

The broker's view on the company is based on its positive outlook for copper and potential for increasing production and Cobar mine life extension. UBS is a long-term copper bull, noting 6mt of new supply is required within 10 years and a US$5/lb copper price is needed to encourage that supply.

The analyst believes the company can achieve the targeted 50ktpa production by 2026 (FY24 was 41.1kt) at the Cobar mine, assisted by production start at Merrin mine. The company has not included Merrin in guidance yet, and the broker estimates production would reach 7.5ktpa..

The broker also sees potential for reserve extension at Cobar, resulting in mine life extension to 2028 from 2036. A key positive is the existing excess infrastructure capacity.

Organic growth option is expected to be the company's preference even though the IPO pitch was focused on M&A.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 84.10 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 191.56 cents.

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08/05/2025

1

Buy

$20.50

10.69%

MAC Copper's March quarter copper production fell -24% on the previous quarter to 8.6kt, missing estimates due to limited access to high-grade stopes.

Unit costs rose to US$1.91/lb but were below Canaccord Genuity's forecast of US$2.14/lb.

Management's full-year production guidance of 43–48kt remains unchanged as development of the Merrin Mine continues, with first ore expected in December 2025.

The broker highlights a -30% reduction in debt costs following refinancing, contributing to a forecast -US$14m in annual savings.

The analyst's FY25 earnings (EBITDA) forecast is lowered to US$193.6m from US$200.8m. Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating with a $20.50 target price.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.90 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.