ADRIATIC METALS PLC (ADT)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

25/09/2024

1

Add

$5.30

23.54%

The operational update by Adriatic Metals was better-than-feared by Morgans as the Vares (silver-lead-zinc) project in Bosnia steadily ramps-up toward full capacity in early-2025.

While management trimmed 2024 ore production guidance, 2025 production guidance was reaffirmed offering good comfort for investors, suggests the analyst.

While costs are trending around 20% above definitive feasibility study (DFS) expectations, they are in line with the broker's expectations, and support first quartile, high-margin cash flows at full production.

The target falls to $5.30 from $5.80. Add.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -11.00 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.62 cents.

10/10/2024

1

Speculative Buy

$4.90

14.22%

Canaccord Genuity highlights gold and gold equities have consistently outperformed during quantitative easing cycles, noting recent actions by central banks in the US, the ECB, Bank of Canada, and Swiss National Bank.

The broker lists other positives for the gold price including increasing ETF inflows, rising US debt levels, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts.

Canaccord's long-term US$ gold price forecast (from 2030) rises by 9% to US$2,963/oz and across 2024-29 estimates rise by 10% on average.

However, less than 50% of the 19 producers under research coverage by the broker will produce meaningful free cash flow in the September quarter, somewhat lessening the impact of record gold prices.

Target prices for developers and explorers researched by Canaccord increase by 3% on average.

In the broker's list of explorers/developers, the target for Adriatic Metals rises to $4.90 from $4.80. The Speculative Buy rating is maintained.