LEO LITHIUM LIMITED (LLL)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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28/01/2025

3

Market Weight

$0.45

-10.89%

In a report looking into 2025, Wilsons reviews seven key talking points for the lithium market covering demand, supply, inventories, geopolitical noise, M&A and how geography could be a key differentiator for new projects moving forward.

Despite being in the midst of an over-supplied market for lithium, the broker believes market rebalancing is underway but the pace will be relatively sedate.

The broker acknowledges its lithium price profile was too optimistic previously, lowering it to a broadly flat forecast versus spot price over the next three years  -- US$850/t SC6 and US$11,000/t carbonate, before progressively moving up. The new price profile sits slightly below consensus estimates for the coming years.

No impact on Leo Lithium from the updated forecasts but the broker has revisited the valuation following the finalisation of the sale of Goulamina to Genfeng.

Wilsons sees Leo as a cash box with a 55c valuation which includes 17c initial distribution to be paid in January and 20c tranche 2 payment to be received by the company in June.

Rating maintained at Market Weight and target price at 45c.

FORECAST
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.20 cents.
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.