SAYONA MINING LIMITED (SYA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

21/11/2024

3

Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform

$0.04

25.00%

Sayona Mining and Piedmont Lithium have announced a 50/50 all-stock merger alongside $40m equity raisings each, with a conditional $69m placement via a revolving credit facility (RCF).

Macquarie suggests the transaction functions as a de facto takeover by Sayona Mining, as the only producing asset, North American Lithium (NAL), is owned by Sayona. Piedmont Lithium's operations are based in the US and Ghana.

Further supporting this view, the broker notes the combined entity’s management will predominantly come from Sayona, with the stock primarily listed on the ASX and secondarily on Nasdaq.

Macquarie doubles Sayona Mining’s target price to 4c and upgrades the rating to Neutral from Underperform, citing the value-accretive removal of the offtake agreement enabled by the merger.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.50 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.40 cents.

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30/10/2024

1

Buy

$0.14

337.50%

Petra Capital  observes 3Q2024 production metrics at North American lithium saw improved utilisation at 91%, with spodumene output up 5% to 52.1kt, despite costs $1,335/t remaining above realised prices, $1,067/t.

Sayona Mining's cash position increased to $104m, aided by inventory sales and prepayments, offsetting low lithium spot prices.

FY25 production guidance remains at 190-210kt, with costs projected at $1,150-1,300/t. Exploration at Tabba Tabba yielded no significant finds, but ongoing efforts target breakeven, the broker notes.

Buy rating with 14c target retained.

FORECAST
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.30 cents.
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.40 cents.