MAC COPPER LIMITED (MAC)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

03/04/2025

1

Buy

$28.00

107.10%

Ord Minnett has broadly reduced its commodity price forecasts, with the exception of gold and neodymium-praseodymium.

The broker cites growing concerns over weakening Chinese steel demand and the potential global trade and economic impacts stemming from proposed US tariffs.

The broker's 2025 iron ore price forecast falls by -3%, while metallurgical coal and thermal coal price estimates fall by -18% and -17%, respectively.

On a sector level, Ord Minnett prefers base metal producers over the bulk miners, noting limited appeal among the lithium and coal producers.

Rio Tinto is preferred over over BHP Group among the large diversified miners, while South32, Capstone Copper, and MAC Copper are the analyst's top picks for base metals exposure.

The Buy rating and $28 target for MAC Copper are maintained.

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04/03/2025

1

Buy

$21.00

55.33%

MAC Copper's FY24 results showed only a slight miss on revenue and earnings (EBITDA,) relative to Canaccord Genuity's forecasts,

The revenue shortfall was mainly due to higher operating costs, explains the broker, while the net loss after tax (NLAT) of -US$70m was better-than-expected, driven by lower depreciation and a US$9m income tax benefit.

Cash flow from operations of US$117m was solid, highlight the analysts.

Production guidance for 2025 remains steady, with expectations of 43-48kt of copper production, and capex guidance is set between -US$60-75m.

The Buy rating and $21 target are unchanged.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -45.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.

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