SUMMERSET GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED (SNZ)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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31/08/2026

1

Buy

-

-

Summerset Group's 1H26 result prompted only modest changes to Bell Potter's earnings forecasts, with underlying earnings estimates reduced by less than -1% across FY26-FY28.

The revisions reflect updated operating and development margins, the first-half result and the year-to-date pace of sales and settlements.

The more significant change is to dividends, with the analyst cutting DPS forecasts by -68%/-62%/-56% across FY26-FY28, respectively.

Despite the near-term adjustments, the broker continues to see value in Summerset's development pipeline and longer-term growth outlook.

Buy retained but target price is lowered to NZ$12.40 from NZ$13.30, largely reflecting a reduction in the multiple applied to resale gains to 10x from 12.5x.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.78 cents and EPS of 82.46 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 8.47 cents and EPS of 90.42 cents.

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09/07/2026

3

Neutral

$10.94

(28/08/2026)

55.18%

Jarden maintains a Neutral rating for Summerset Group with a NZ$10.52 target price following a 2Q26 sales update.

Commentary observes resales momentum continues to perform well in line with turnover, while new sales reflect strong contracting and settlement activity at two of four new village centre buildings opened during 1H26.

The analyst notes the New Zealand delivery target for FY26 has been revised down by 50 homes to 600–650 units and beds, whereas the Australian pipeline remains on track to deliver 100–150 homes.

Refinancing margins held broadly flat with FY25 levels in 1H26, introducing potential upside if trends persist into 2H26.

Jarden remains cautious due to high leverage and substantial development priced into the valuation, with further operational details anticipated upon the 1H26 result release on 27 August 2026.